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Presentation on Climate Change
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Transcript of Presentation on Climate Change
Overview Introduction
Climate Change
Factors Impacting Productivity & Farm Practices
Mitigation Strategies
Farm Mapping: Climate & Environment
Farming PracticesConventional Practices
Modern PracticesSustainability
Climate & Climate ChangeHigher Average Temp.
Increased Rainfall VariationMore frequent extreme events
EnvironmentPreserve Biodiversity
Fragile Ecosystems
Govt.
Policy Institutions
Private Sector
Community
Farmer
Stakeholders
Stress: Food for thought! Agriculture: Largest water user: 70% of total withdrawal. With backdrop of climate change, water sustainability is even more crucial
Significant nutrient run-off in developed countries, and soil degradation in developing countries: KLS & NLS problem
Maintenance of Biodiversity: Absorbs Shocks due to changing circumstances. Severe deforestation not helping
Agriculture, including deforestation, is 1/3 of greenhouse gas emissions. Hence, climate change mitigation needs to be led from here
Climate ChangeDOES IT IMPACT PRODUCTIVITY?
QUANTIFYING CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACT ON INDIA
Does climate change impact productivity?
TFP has increased!
Introduction of Varieties
Market Conditions
Change in Farming Practices
Other Biotic Factors(Eg: Soil, Pests, etc.)
Impact of Climate Variation on Agricultural Productivity and food security in India,
economics e-Journal, Ajay Kumar, Pritee Sharma, IIT Indore.
Increments in max temp has negative impact on rice, maize, bajra, etc.. With high statistical
significance. Increment in rainfall had a negative correlation
with ragi, maize. Overall, there was statistically significant
impact of climate on agriculture.
Sensitivity of cereal ((a,b) maize (mid- to high-latitude and low latitude), (c,d) wheat (mid- to high-latitude and low latitude) and (e,f) rice (mid- to high-latitude)) against temperature change. Results with (green), and without (red) adaptation. Source:Easterling et al. (2007)
What is climate change? Global Impacts
Indirect impacts of climate change
Dependency on rivers fed by precipitation, snowmelt and glaciers some distance away. Soil moisture, Water availability: Water water everywhere but not a drop to drink!
Aphids may be positively correlated with elevated CO2. But full effects on pests and diseases is not certain, due to complex interactions
Direct impacts of climate change
An increase in mean temperature is evident, but the impacts on productivity may depend more on the magnitude and timing of extreme temperatures, drought, flooding and tropical storms, etc.
Warming since 1981 led to combined losses of 40 million tonne or US5$ billion [wheat, maize and barley have negative relation with temp]
Overall, it does not appear to be possible at the present time to provide a robust assessment of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on global-scale agricultural productivity.
Non-Climate, Greehouse emissions
related
A reduction in CO2 emissions would be expected to reduce the positive effect of CO2 fertilization on crop yields more rapidly than it would mitigate the negative impacts of climate change.
In regions, such as Asia, little evidence currently exists regarding ozone.
India Specific Climate Change
Although variation is within 10% of rainfall, tobacco crop yields are affected in yield significantly, especially KLS region.
It is further noted that night time temperatures have increased sharply during the recent years, highlighting the role of greenhouse gases.
ISMR anomaly and food grain production relationship not encouraging!
Studies also suggests intensity and duration may vary significantly, even though average precipitation might stay the same, while average temperatures will very likely exceed the highest values in 130 year instrumental record.
India Specific Climate Change: Predictions
Mean warming over India is likely to be in the range 1.7-2.00 C by 2030s, 3.3-4.80 C by 2080s relative to pre industrial times.
All-India precipitation is projected to increase from 4% to 5% by 2030s and from 6% to 14% towards the end of the century (2080s) compared to the 1961-1990 baseline.
The precipitation projections are generally less reliable than temperature projections
There is consistent positive trend in frequency of extreme precipitation days (e.g., greater than 40 mm/ day) for decades 2060s and beyond
India Specific Implications All-India rainfall does not show any significant trends, however there are significant regional trends and sub-seasonal
rainfall
surface air temperatures including night time temperatures are expected to further increase.
Increase in moisture level is expected with increase in rainfall, but there will also be extreme rainfall related events
productivity of most cereals would decrease due to increase in temperature and CO2, and the decrease in water availability.
There will be a projected loss of 10-40% in crop production by 2100 if no adaptation measures are taken. A one degree Celsius increase in temperature may reduce yields of major food crops by 3-7%
Kharif (autumn) crops will be impacted more by rainfall variability while Rabi (spring) crops by rise in minimum temperature.
There will also be more opportunities for rainwater harvesting due to high intensity rainfall but greater loss of topsoil due to erosion.
Rapidly increasing greenhouse gas emissions, and the likelihood of nonlinear effects of temperature on yields are causes of concern. Despite rising CO2 net loss in productivity due to higher temperatures is expected (3 degree rise cancels benefits)
http://www.ifpri.org/node/8438
Factors Affecting Productivity & Practices MAPPING OF FACTORS
CLIMATIC FACTORS: A STUDY
EVOLUTION OF AGRI-PRACTICES
Different factors affecting Productivity
Climatic
Precipitation Temperature Humidity Wind VelocitySolar Radiation Gases
High yield ability
Early maturity
Resistance to lodging
Drought flood and salinity tolerance
Tolerance to insect pests and diseases
Chemical composition of grains (oil content, protein content)
Quality of grains
Quality of straw
Internal Factors
Nearly 50% of yield is attributed to the influence of climatic factors. The following are the atmospheric weather variables which influences the crop production
Precipitation
Temperature
Atmospheric humidity
Solar radiation
Wind velocity
Atmospheric gases
Climatic Factors
Precipitation• Definition: Water which falls
from atmosphere• Important factor, crop
growth dependence on amount and period of rain fall is very high
• Distributed rain fall is more important than total rain fall
Temperature• Definition: Measure of
intensity of heat energy• Temperature range for
maximum agricultural growth
• Temperature plays a crucial role in Germination. Leaf production, expansion, flowering
Humidity • Definition: Water vapour
present in atmosphere in form of invisible water vapour
• Soil evaporation and plant transpiration
• RH influences water requirement of crops
• Balance of RH (40-60%)
Climatic Factors
Solar Radiation• Germination to Harvest even
post harvest crops are affected by solar radiation
• Photosynthesis process• Physical process in soil • Controls distribution of
temperature
Wind Velocity• Basic function is to carry
moisture and heat • Supply fresh CO2 for
photosynthesis • Soil erosion, increase
evaporation, spread pest and diseases, enormous wind speed gives mechanical damage
Atmospheric Gases• CO2 for photosynthesis• Co2 returned to atmosphere
during decomposition of organic matter
• O2 is important for respiration
• N is major plant nutrient • Certain gases are toxic
Climatic Factors
Mitigation StrategiesFARMING PRACTICES
AGRI INNOVATION SYSTEM
NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
ENABLING ENVIRONMENT, R&D FOCUS, COLLABORATION, POLICIES
SCOPE EXCLUDES FINANCING
New Climate Smart Practices Past:Land degradation: Overuse of land, poor land management, nutrient mining, soil erosion
Need: Increased efficiency of organic and inorganic fertilizer, water use and pest and disease control are needed to increase returns to agriculture while reducing negative environmental externalities when achieving needed productivity gains
Agri Innovation Systems
Natural Resource Management Enabling environment, Focus on R&D, Collaboration, Policies
Farming Practices
Farming Practices
Using slow-release N fertilizers with proper timing, placement, and rates to
minimize N2O emissions
Capturing nutrients and energy from manure, crop residue, cover crop
management (closing nutrient cycles)
Using more efficient power sources and renewable energy (more efficient
tractors, green power).
Valuing agricultural commodities for their water footprint or
environmental traits.
Improving the synchronization of planting and harvesting operations with shifts in the hydrologic cycle
Reduce water losses, increase irrigation efficiencies by building irrigation
infrastructure
Erosion prevention and protection from extreme weather conditions
Increasing soil C sequestration to improve soil functions
Increasing N-use efficiencies for cropping systems
Agri Innovation Systems
Integrating Climate Change, impact, and mitigation in
farmer education
Incorporate Climate Change related messages in Advisory
Services like Namma Sandesh
Incentivise adoption of specific practices
Leverage existing infra: farmer and trader associations, NGOS
Introduction of later- maturing crop varieties or species,
heat and drought resistant crop varieties
Switching cropping sequences, Sowing earlier, adjusting timing of field operations
Conserving soil moisture through appropriate tillage
methods, and improving irrigation efficiency.
Improved training and general education of populations
dependent on agriculture.
Incorporating Efficient Post Harvest Management
Activities
Natural Resource ManagementWatersheds: Projects designed to explore low-cost water conservation solutions to improve crop yields in the face of drought in the community of Kothapally in Andhra Pradesh, India
De-silting operations & control of soil erosion, soil fertility management, Soil moisture conservation by mulching crop residues, etc.
Forestry initiatives to conserve and build biodiversity: leverage natural habitat formations in Crop Management: Bee farms, Insectivorous Birds
Leveraging village level institutions to build capabilities and manage funding for projects
Enabling environment, Focus on R&D, Collaboration, Policies
Cross Country Exchange of info:Global Research Alliance on
Greenhouse Gases
Building in-situ biodiversity seed banks to enable faster
development
Ex post is better than Ex ante! Pull based mechanisms to reward
successful innovations.
Climate Change levy on tobacco produce: revenues to be used In
R&D
Payment for Ecosystem Services: Incentivise Climate Change
Mitigation Practices-
Replicate successful models established in other nations
Provision of loans, and equipments at subsidies
Tailor made policies according to region; Address poorly defined
land holding rights
Promoting fast and efficient information communication, Use of
RS/GIS
Bibliography http://cdkn.org/2012/01/agriculture-and-climate-change-in-india/
http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/365/1554/2973.full#ref-59
http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/365/1554/2973/F1.expansion.html
http://www.nias.res.in/docs/Climate%20Change%20and%20Sustainable%20Food%20Security.pdf
http://www.ctri.org.in/CTRI%20Publications/CTRI%20Vision%202025.pdf
http://www.fao.org/climatechange/climatesmart/en/
http://www.ifad.org/rainfedag/climate/
http://www.caadp.net/pdf/Using%20SLM%20Practices%20to%20Adapt%20and%20Mitigate%20Climate%20Change.pdf
http://www.afjare.org/resources/issues/vol_2_no1/5%20Hassan%20%26%20Nhemachena%20-%20Determinants%20of%20African%20farmers%E2%80%99%20strategies.pdf
http://www.ars.usda.gov/sp2UserFiles/Place/36221500/cswq-0456-delgado.pdf
http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ifpridp01098.pdf
http://www.globalenvironments.org/blog/climate-change-resilient-agriculture/
http://www.fao.org/docrep/014/i2316e/i2316e00.pdf
http://www.isprs.org/proceedings/XXXVIII/8-W3/b2/B21-138.pdf
http://www.ictsd.org/downloads/2012/05/g20-2012-27-april-2.pdf