Presentation Causes of War
Transcript of Presentation Causes of War
History teaches us that war begins when governments believe the price of
aggression is cheap.
Ronald Reagan
Why did Georgia do it?
2008 South Ossetia War
Causes of War
Prof. LengJan. 2011
Background Research Design Analysis Research Gaps Conclusion
Outline:
Pre-Soviet Soviet Times 1990’s
Ossetia/ Georgia
Georgia/Russia
Background
2008 South Ossetia War
Research Design: Hypotheses
When war is declared, Truth is the first casualty.
Arthur Ponsonby
Analysis: Optimism and Opportunity
Internal Factors(Russia vs. Georgia)
External Factors (Possible Reactions)
Georgia Russia
Military Power
$1 bn6% of GDP
$40 bnIncreased 20%
Public Discord
Relatively high
Relatively high
Economic Strength
12% GDP growth $10.3 bn
8.1% GDP growth$2.331 trillion
NationalismHigh High Lack of Information?
Analysis: “weak state”
Vertical (Medium/Low)
• Warring factions• War on corruption• Medium and lower levels
• Lack of Judicial reforms• Still linked to executive
branch
Horizontal (Medium)
• Lowered Freedom Rating• Mikheil Saakashvili• Use of force against
protestors• Democratic elections
Analysis: clash of civilizations
Micro
• Previous Autonomy of Ossetia• Orthodox Christian
mainly • 67% Ethnic Ossetian
Macro
Research gaps
• Statistics to determine “War”• Hypo 4:
Transitioning Democracy?• Why was Russia
involved?• Mechanisms were
lacking in the theories
Everyone lost All hypotheses
provide some incite Manly due to sphere
of influence politics, when the timing was right
Conclusion
War may sometimes be a necessary evil. But no matter how necessary, it is always an evil, never a good. We will
not learn how to live together in peace by killing each other's children.
Jimmy Carter