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Transcript of Presentacion CM Daniel Chirot
Industrial Cycles, the Current Crisis of Capitalism, and Adapting to the Future
March 13, 2012
Tecnológico de Monterrey
Campus Querétaro
The Causes of the 2008 Panic and
Subsequent Economic Crisis
Washington Mutual, many financialinstitutions chasing after greater profitsand taking bigger risks with housingloans.
Variable interest to NINJA loans. Thebubble and the largest bank failure inAmerican history.
10% of all US business profits in
1980, 40% by early 2000s from
financial industry.
Mortgage backed securities,
complex derivatives, dishonest
ratings agencies (Moody, S&P),
Fannie and Freddie.
Cascading effects of burst
bubble, loss of confidence, Lehman
and liquidity crisis.
Crash in 2008, world depression
narrowly averted by US actions.
But there are deeper causes.
Industrial Cycles
Dates of
cycles
Leading
Products
Dominant
Areas
Crisis
Moments
First:
1780s-
1840s
Textiles Great
Britain
Revolu-
tions from
1789-1848
Second:
1840s-
1870s
Railroads,
iron
telegraph
Great
Britain
Depression
of the
1870s,
labor strife
Dates Leading
Products
Dominant
Areas
Crisis
Moments
Third:1
870s-
1910s
Chemicals,
steel,
electrical
machines,
research
Germany,
United
States
Colonial
race,
military
arms race,
nationalism
and World
War I
Dates Leading
Products
Dominant
Areas
Crisis
Moments
Fourth:19
20s- 1970s
Autos,
petro-
chemicals,
home
electrical
goods,
airplanes,
services
United
States
Depression
of 1930s,
World War
II, anti-
capitalism
of fascism
and com-
munism
Dates Leading
Products
Dominant
Areas
Crisis
Moments
Fifth:
1970s-
2010s
Electronics
and
computers,
health care
USA, West
Europe,
Japan, parts
of East Asia
Commu-
nism falls,
ethnic strife
resistance to
modernity,
crash - 2008
Dates Leading
Products
Dominant
Areas
Crisis
Moments
Sixth:
2010s-
2050s?
Program
organisms?
nano-tech,
bio- tech?
energy?
Education /
research?
China?
India?
Europe?
USA?
China/US
as rivals?
Religious
wars?
Ecological
change /
climate?
Gini coefficient of income inequality
(1.0 = perfect inequality, 0 = perfect
equality)
Poorer Countries
Emerging and Middle Range
Countries
Rich Countries
Poorer Countries Average = 51.1
Bolivia 59, Guatemala 55,
Haiti 59,
Kenya 43, Nigeria 44,
Zambia 51, Mozambique 47
Emerging/Middle Range Countries
Average = 47.9
Mexico 48, Argentina 46,
Brazil 57,
China 42, India 37,
Malaysia 46,
Russia 42, South Africa 65
Rich Countries Average = 32.7
USA 45, Canada 32,
France 33, Sweden 23,
Germany 27, United Kingdom 34,
Netherlands 31,
Japan 38, South Korea 31