Preparing Students for Graduation and Beyond

Jim Hull2011 NSBA Annual Conference

April 9, 2011

Preparing students for graduation and beyond

• Getting students to graduate high school

• Preparing students for college/career

• Determining how prepared students are for postsecondary success

Meet our students

• Pat• Crystal• Brittney• Ricky

WHAT DID OUR STUDENTS’ SCHOOLS DO

DIFFERENTLY?

Pat’s SchoolsSITUATION

Middle School• Excessive absences • Poor grades

High School• Skipped school• Failed coursed

RESPONSE

Middle School• Retained in 7th grade

High School• Suspensions

Crystal’s SchoolsSITUATION

Middle School• Low grades

High School• Failed English and

math courses• Failed to become of

sophomore

RESPONSE

Middle School• None

High School• Notified she wasn’t

likely to graduate on-time.

Brittney’s SchoolsSITUATION

Middle School• Low grades

High School• Failed General Math• Passed other courses

RESPONSE

Middle School• None

High School• Provided extra help in math

in her sophomore year.• Encouraged to complete

her course requirements• Arranged class schedule to

meet her needs

Ricky’s SchoolsSITUATION

Middle School• Fell behind completing

school work• Low grades

High School• Completed college

prep curriculum

RESPONSE

Middle School• Teachers provided extra

help

High School• Assigned a guidance

counselor in the 9th grade

What happened to our students?

• Pat – Dropped out

• Crystal – Earned a GED

• Brittney – Graduated late

• Ricky – Graduated on-time

Why the different outcomes?

Why Students Dropout

• Dropouts are twice as likely to say they left for school related reasons as for family or personal circumstances.

• School related factors are a better predictor of who will dropout than such characteristics as race, poverty, gender, or family background.

Prediction

• 85% of eventual dropouts can be identified by 9th

grade.

– 50% of eventual dropouts show signs in 5th & 6th grade.

• The strongest predictors are academic failure &

disengagement from school

What schools can do

Early warnings of dropping out• Excessive absenteeism• Suspension/Behavior grades• Failed courses, especially in 9th grade• Extreme drop in GPA• Overage due to earlier retentions

Intervention

• Most effective intervention provide ongoing,

comprehensive counseling that is personalized.

• Occasional tutoring, counseling, or activities to

boost self-esteem do almost nothing to keep

students in school.

Prevention

• High-quality pre-kindergarten has many benefits,

including high school completions

• Small schools

• Good relationships with adults

• Strong and relevant curriculum

Recovery

• Unfortunately, researchers can’t reliably predict

100% of eventual dropouts.

• Some programs are showing considerable

promise.

• More research is needed.

WHAT DID RICKY’S SCHOOLS DO DIFFERENTLY?

How did Ricky’s schools do?

• Prediction: identified Ricky early

• Intervention: provided on-going personalized support

• Prevention: established good adult relationships and

provided Ricky with a rigorous and relevant curriculum

• Recovery: didn’t need to because they kept Ricky on

track to graduate.

WHAT ACTIONS SCHOOLS TAKE MAKE A DIFFERENCE

EARNING A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA IS NOT ENOUGH

What does a high school diploma mean?

Goal of P-12 is no longer just graduating from high school

Goal of P-12 is preparation for continued learning – college, career, tech on job training

Changing WorkersFarm Factory/Office

Knowledge

Earnings boost for college degree has grown immensely

Source: Mortenson, T. (2007, November). Average family income by educational attainment of householder 1967 to 2006. Postsecondary Education Opportunity, 185. (p. 15)

-13%

6%14%

40%

59%

HS Dropout HS Graduate Some College Bachelor's Graduate or Professional

degree

Change in average family income from 1973 to 2006

Education pays off

19,40526,894

32,874

46,805

61,287

some high school

high school diploma

some college/assoc

degree

bachelor's degree

advanced degree

median annual earnings of adults 25 and over

• SOURCE: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2007

Job tasks are changing across the economy

• Source: Levy, F. & Murnane, R. J. (2004). The new division of labor: How computers are creating the next job market. Princeton, NJ: Russell Sage Foundation. (p. 50, Figure 3.5)

SOURCE: Carnavale, College for All? Change, January/February 2008

Postsecondary education means more than ever: The

‘upskilling’ of jobs

2838

63

12

5969

86

36

All jobs Office work Tech jobs Factory jobs

1973

Today

Percent of workers with some college

Nearly two-thirds of new jobs will require postsecondary education or

training

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2008, February). Occupational projections and training data: 2008-9 edition. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Labor. (p. 4, Table I-3)

36

33

31 Bachelor's or higher

Some college or postsec. trainingHigh school or less

Projected

new jobs

2006-2016

Three kinds of learning are becoming increasingly important if not essential for students to succeed in work and life:

• Traditional academic knowledge and skills

• Real world application of academic knowledge & skills, or “applied literacies”

• Broader competencies, or so-called 21st century skills

Skills & knowledge work together

• More formal education = more advantage

• Traditional subjects still matter

• Traditional subjects alone are not enough

– for success both on the job and in their personal lives, students must also better learn how to apply what they learn

Defining a 21st Century Education

What does this mean for our students?

What does it mean for our students?

• Pat – Mechanic

• Crystal – Electrician

• Brittney – Nurse

• Ricky – Teacher

GETTING INTO A GOOD COLLEGE

Average college applicant • GPA 3.1• ACT 21• Trigonometry and chemistry• 75%

Ricky’s Chances of Getting into a Good College

• GPA 2.0• ACT 18• Trigonometry and

chemistry• 50%

• GPA 2.0• ACT 18• Algebra II and

biology• 37%

What would raise a student’s chances?

• More rigorous coursework– Pre-calculus 75% to 79%

• Higher ACT– 22 over 21 75% to 78%

• Increase GPA– 3.1 to 3.6 75% to 79%

• The highest level of mathematics in high school is the strongest predictor of completing a BA/BS.

• Finishing a course beyond the level of Algebra 2 (for example, trigonometry or pre-calculus) more than doubles the odds that a student who enters postsecondary education will complete a bachelor’s degree.

Mathematics impact

SOURCE: Adelman (2006)TheToolbox Revisited.

What is the likelihood of each of our students being able to

solve this problem?

The screening test for electrician apprenticeships

• Source: National Joint Apprenticeship and Training Committee for the Electrical Construction and Maintenance Industry, http://www.njatc.org/training/apprenticeship/index.aspx

IT’S NOT JUST ABOUT GETTING STUDENTS INTO

COLLEGE

Trades becoming more technical, requiring stronger

math & readingThe math and reading skills

required for electricians,

construction workers,

upholsterers and plumbers are

the same as what’s necessary to

succeed in first-year college

courses.

SOURCE: ACT, Readiness for College and Readiness for Work: Same or Different, Iowa City, IA. 2006

Ready for College and Ready for Work:Same or Different?

ACT study answered question by:

• Identifying the level of reading and mathematics skills students need to be ready for entry-level jobs that require less than a bachelor’s degree, pay a wage sufficient to support a family, and offer the potential for career advancement

• Comparing student performance on ACT tests that measure workforce readiness with those that measure college readiness

• Determining if the levels of performance needed for college and workforce readiness are the same or different

SOURCE: ACT, Readiness for College and Readiness for Work: Same or Different, Iowa City, IA. 2006

• The high school curriculum matters

• Challenges:

Providing rigorous curriculum to all students, not just some

Providing relevance and support so all students learn it

Key Lesson

ARE YOUR GRADUATES PREPARED FOR

POSTSECONDARY SUCCESS?

What data would you use?

Student outcome datafor high school and beyond

• Graduation rates– by race, ethnicity, family income– by special program

• Local targets– AP, IB tests– ACT, SAT– Curriculum rigor completion

• Postsecondary success

• College acceptance• College enrollment• College remediation• College proficiency (persistence)• College completion• Career success

What data can we gather?

College remediation• 28% of all new freshmen required

remediation

• Students in 2-yr colleges were twice as likely to require remediation compared to their peers in 4-yr college (42% to 20%)

SOURCES: NSF, Science & Engineering Indicators, 2006; NCES, Condition of Education, 2004

NSC: National Student Clearinghouse

• Their database contains records for 92 percent of all students enrolled in postsecondary institutions in the U.S.

• Through their High School Tracker program, NSC offers data services for $425 per year per high school so schools can track the performance of their graduates through postsecondary education.

These services will show:– How many graduates enroll in postsecondary

education? – Whether they attend two- or four-year colleges? – How many of them persist to a credential or

degree? – How much time it took to college graduation?

www.studentclearinghouse.org

NSC: National Student Clearinghouse

• Survey graduates

• Survey parents of graduates

• Survey business community

Other Data to Collect

WHAT CAN SCHOOL BOARDS DO?

Look at the data

What happens to our graduates after they leave our schools?

– Longitudinal data• State data systems • National Student Clearinghouse

– Meet with your local community college– Survey local businesses and trades

Questions to consider• What is our default curriculum? • Is our high school curriculum aligned with the

expectations of our local colleges?• Are school counselors ensuring that all students start

taking the right courses as soon as they enter high school?

• Do all of our students have access to effective teachers? • Do we provide sufficient supports for struggling

students, including extra time?• Do we provide teachers sufficient professional

development and time for collaboration?

Data First for Governance

www.data-first.org

College prep for all in San Jose

Using technology to raise graduation rates in

Bedford Co, TN

Some other models

• High Tech High Schools• Career Academies• Dual enrollments• High Schools That Work (SREB)• Internships, especially those that

connect work experience to coursework

More information on these topicswww.centerforpubliceducation.org

• Keeping kids in school: What research says about

preventing dropouts

• Better late than never: Examining late high school

graduates

• Defining a 21st Century Education

• Chasing the college acceptance letter: Is it harder

to get into college?

• Pre-K Toolkit

Give us your feedback!

www.centerforpubliceducation.org

or send me an email:Jim Hull, jhull@nsba.org