Preparing for the future - ESPON...Line of thinking ESPON // Preparing for the future European...

Preparing for the future

European Territorial Reference Framework

Kai Böhme, Spatial Foresight

Line of thinking

ESPON // Preparing for the future European Territorial Reference Framework // 16.05.2018 Nova Gorica

What if ? So what ?

So what now ?Action ?

Sector trends(demographics, transport, economy,

environment …)

BIG structural policies(taxation, economic polices…)

Territorial dimension (territorial implications / impacts by

2030 and 2050…)

Interdependencies (reinforcements of different trends …)

2030 Policy implications (Which policy aims will be easier or

more difficult to reach…?)

2050 Policy implications (What needs to be different…)

2030 Policy pathways (Policy rekommendations …)

2050 Visions (Long term policy objectives …)

Impacts ?

Options ?

Changing democratic decision making and governance

Changing

democratic

decision

making

Increasing

global tensions

Delegation to

supra-national

players

Thrive towards

more

democracy

Power diffusion

to networks

and coalitions

Increasing role

of perceptions

and believes

Aging society

Changing

demo-

graphic

pressure

Rising tensions

between Russia

and Europe

Re-

nationalisation

in Europe

Collaborative

governance

approaches

Diverging

understandings

of democracies

Global

demographic

growth Increasing

middle class at

global levelYoung and

ambitious Further

urbanisationRising social

inequalities

and gaps

Increasing

migratory

pressures

Deepening

environ-

mental

conver-

sation

Climate change

Scarcity of

water and food

Pollution of the

seas

Arctic as resource

and passage

Renewing

industries

and

innovation

Beyond GDP

Peak of

everything

Decoupling

growth & jobs

Slow growth

4th industrial

revolution

Internet of

things

Robotics

Big data

Natural

resources

important again

Increasing

public debts

Circular &

sharing

economy

Blue & green

growth and

clean tech

What if … ?


Technological & industrial change

Global shifts

European territorial developments

European macro-economic policies

Technological & industrial Trends

Seeds of change

1

Preparing for the future European Territorial Reference Framework // 16.05.2018 Nova Gorica

4th Industrial Revolution

Automation

Artificial intelligence

…


Source: Joint Research Centre, 2016

Global shifts

Seeds of change

5/22/2018

2


Chinese One Belt & One Road Initiative

PowerPoint template 16:98 5/22/2018

Single Market will remain relevant?

Network economies versus agglomeration economies

Postcarbon energy sources?

European territorial development trends

Seeds of change

5/22/2018

3


Regional Economic Forecast 2010-2030 (JRC, 2016)

Live expectancy (2010)

Stable with baseline migration: from 514 to 530 inh.

Ageing: %>64 years 26% to 39%

Demographic Growth 2010-2020 (ET2050,2012)

Territorial Governance

“Quality of Government Institute, University of Gotheborg (2018)

Quality of Government will improve significantly?

EQI 2010 EQI 2017

European macro-economic policy trends

Seeds of change

5/22/2018Preparing for the future European Territorial Reference Framework // 16.05.2018 Nova Gorica

4

No funding policies

Big players for (not) achieving territorial cohesion

Not widely considered impacts and potential

EU example: Competition law and possible

territorial variation of employers’ contribution

National example: Territorial implications of flat rate

tax approaches


Key messages

5


Strategic challenges

External Sensitivity: Europe interdependency in relation to the

« Rest of the World »

Persistent Disparities: Among neighborhoods, cities, regions…

Increasing Externalities: Social, Economic and Environmental

cross-border spillovers

Political & Administrative Fragmentation: Growing « Cost of non-

Europe »

Governance Deficits: More complex multiscale/cross-

border/Public-Private PartnershipsESPON // Preparing for the future European Territorial Reference Framework // 16.05.2018 Nova Gorica

1) Fragmentation & disintegration

The economic geography of Europe is changing –

accompanied by an increasing fragmentation of

society

fragmentation as consequence

fragmentation as threat to integration

Policy state-of play: gap in policy solutions to

address growing economic and social disparities


2) Spatial interdependencies

Social and economic developments in one place

have major impacts on development perspectives

in other places

increasing negative and positive externalities

links as levers for development

Policy state-of play: deeper integration and positive

externalities (e.g. CEF, MRSs, Interreg), but lack of

coherence of initiativesESPON // Preparing for the future European Territorial Reference Framework // 16.05.2018 Nova Gorica

3) Mismatch of functionalities

Misalignment between geographical jurisdiction

for policy making and the geographies affected

policy decisions and actions reach beyond

administrative borders

from local to global level

Policy state-of play: multi-level governance and

functional areas as ‘unit’ for policy treatment


Discussion points

3


How about ?

What are the most important trends from the

perspective of border-regions ?

How do you expect border regions to be different in

2030 or 2050 as compared to today?


// Thank youKai Böhme, Spatial Foresight

This presentation will be made available at: www.espon.eu

Kai Böhme

Spatial Foresight

[email protected]

+352 691 32 97 49

www.spatialforesight.eu

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