Preparing for the Final Examination

Course Structure

• Probability

• Design Issues and Descriptive Statistics

• Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests

Problem Tasks – Part I 

Bowls, Urns, DiceEstimate Probabilities Using Samples from Bowls, Urns, Dice

Compute Probabilities from Probability Model for Bowls, Urns, DiceCompare Probabilities and Estimates from Bowls, Urns, Dice

 Random Variables

Compute the Values of Random Variables Using the DefinitionCompute Probabilities of Outcomes Defined by Random Variables

 Probabilities

Compute Probabilities from Scratch Using a Probability ModelCompute Probabilities Using Computation Rules

Interpret Probabilities Using Long Run ArgumentCompute Conditional Probabilities Using the Definition

 Random Samples and ProbabilitiesEstimate Probabilities from Samples

Compare Samples and Probability ModelsEvaluate the Rare Event Assumption Using Samples

  

One or more cases from Part One will be presented on the Comprehensive Final Examination. They will be representative of cases worked in class, presented on current and old hourly ones and on old final exams.

Problem Tasks – Part II 

Clinical Trial DesignsSketch Clinical Trials Briefly and Completely

Spot Faults in Clinical Trials Based on Brief Descriptions of Designs 

Random Sample SurveysSpot Faults in Sample Survey Designs Based on Brief Descriptions of Designs

 Descriptive Statistics

Edit Data provided in casesCompute Statistics Using the Calculator

Interpret Statistics Briefly and Completely 

Summary intervalsEdit Data provided in cases

Compute Intervals Using the CalculatorInterpret Intervals Briefly and Completely

 One or more cases from Part Two will be presented on the Comprehensive Final Examination. They will be representative of cases worked in class, presented on current and old hourly ones and on old final exams.

Problem Tasks – Part III 

Confidence Interval EstimationCompute and Interpret Confidence Intervals for Population Means

Compute and Interpret Confidence Intervals for Population Proportions 

 Hypothesis Tests

Compute and Interpret Hypothesis Test for Population MedianCompute and Interpret Hypothesis Test for Goodness of Fit

  

One or more cases from Part Three will be presented on the Comprehensive Final Examination. They will be representative of cases worked in class, presented on current and old hourly ones and on old final exams. Necessary tables will be supplied with the final examination. 

Specifications for the Comprehensive Final Examination

 The course consists of three parts: 

ProbabilityStatistical Design Concepts and Descriptive StatisticsConfidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests

 The final will present four (4) cases which are drawn from each part of the course. The final examination is comprehensive. Each part of the course contributes one or more cases to the final examination. In order to do well on the final, you must be proficient in cases from each part of the course.  You are permitted the following: 

Your personal calculator;Your two (2) 8.5 by 11 inch toolsheets;Your writing utensils.

 You must not share resources or information during the final examination. You must sign and abide by the protocol provided with the final examination. 

I will provide the final examination, writing paper, and the necessary statistical tables. The final comprises four (4) cases, and the final period is two (2) hours. This gives you approximately twenty (30) minutes per problem. Plan accordingly. Grades and scores will be posted through the usual university channels. Course records and finals will be available in the Mathematics Office after the course is completed. I currently post scores and grades online. Additionally, the university posts your grades online, and paper records, including the final examinations are generally maintained in the respective department offices.

Grading Policy – Summer Term

We will have two (2) in-class examinations (called hourlies).Your best performance will comprise 40% of your course grade. Your second best performance will comprise 20% of your course grade.

We will have a comprehensive final examination, which will comprise 40% of your course grade.

The Course Total Score and Course Letter GradeThe Course Total Score is the basis of the Letter Grade assigned for the course. The CTS has a maximum value of 100 points, accumulated as follows:

The highest of the three hourly scores contributes a maximum of 40 points to the CTS;The 2nd highest of the three hourly scores contributes a maximum of 20 points to the CTS;The Comprehensive Examination score contributes a maximum of 40 points to the CTS.

The only letter grade earned in the course is the letter grade assigned for the entire course. I do not interpret any of the preliminary scores as letter grades.

An "A" for the course requires a CTS of 90 or better; A "B" for the course requires a CTS of 80-89;A "C" for the course requires a CTS of 70-79;A "D" for the course requires a CTS of 60-69;A "F" for the course requires a CTS of 00-59.Just remember the rule - 40/20/40The only letter grade for the course is the Course Grade. Do not interpret any of the individual scores on a letter grade scale.

Some Advice

• Check your calculator’s health before the exam.

• Bring pens, and work the final in ink – or bring pre-sharpened pencils.

• Be sure to study your weakest areas.

• Study more recent material earlier, then work backwards.

• Customize your tool-sheets to your needs.

• Recall that discussion and interpretation comprise 40% or more of earned credit on individual cases.

• Be sure to use the methods and approaches specified in the cases.