Open GIS with Spatial and Temporal Retrievals as well as Data Assimilations
Preliminary Results from EnSRF data Assimilations and Forecasts of the 24 May 2011 Event
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Tim Supinie, Youngsun Jung, Ming Xue Warn-on-Forecast Workshop 2 April 2014 PRELIMINARY RESULTS FROM ENSRF DATA ASSIMILATIONS AND FORECASTS OF THE 24 MAY 2011 EVENT
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Preliminary Results from EnSRF data Assimilations and Forecasts of the 24 May 2011 Event. Tim Supinie, Youngsun Jung, Ming Xue Warn-on-Forecast Workshop 2 April 2014. Experiment Configuration. Domain Outline. Methods and Knob Settings. ARPS 300 × 300 × 51 3 km grid spacing - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Preliminary Results from EnSRF data Assimilations and Forecasts of the 24 May 2011 Event
Investigating the Tradeoff Between Spatial and Temporal Resolution of Radar Data in EnSRF data Assimilations and Forecasts
Tim Supinie, Youngsun Jung, Ming XueWarn-on-Forecast Workshop2 April 2014Preliminary Results from EnSRF data Assimilations and Forecasts of the 24 May 2011 EventARPS30030051 3 km grid spacingNAM IC/BCMilbrandt-Yau 2-moment MP3D Ensemble Square-Root Filter40-member ensemble6 km localization radius5 dBZ, 3 m s-1 obs. errorsMultiplicative (1.2) and RTPS (0.9) covariance inflation
Experiment ConfigurationDomain OutlineMethods and Knob Settings
Terrain Height (m)
Surface data: ASOS (1-minute), AWOS (20-minute), OK Mesonet (5-minute)Sounding data: ARM (3-hourly)WSR-88D: 17 Radars, including KTLX, KFDR, and KVNXExperiment timeline and data1 km AGL Reflectivity (Analyses)
Reflectivity (dBZ)1 km AGL Reflectivity (2100 UTC Forecast)Reflectivity (dBZ)
Updraft Helicity (1930-2030 UTC Forecast)
2020 UTC2031 UTC2047 UTCP(UH > 50 m2 s-2)
Updraft Helicity (2000-2100 UTC Forecast)2020 UTC2031 UTC2047 UTC2046 UTC2050 UTCP(UH > 50 m2 s-2)
Updraft Helicity (2100-2200 UTC Forecast)2050 UTC2235 UTC2206 UTC2226 UTCP(UH > 50 m2 s-2)Equitable Threat Score (ETS)
2100 UTC FCST 1930 UTC FCST 2000 UTC FCST P(Z > 40 dBZ) > 0.5 from ensembleZ > 40 dBZ from WSR-88DsFull volume scans (9-14 tilts)Contingency Table Visualization
(Preliminary) ConclusionsNEP Updraft Helicity swaths line up with observed tornadoesReasonably Well: Canton Lake TornadoOkay: El Reno EF5 (UH swath deviates left)Poorly: Goldsby Tornado (1 hour too early)ETS drops off quickly after initializationModel wants to move storms too quickly (closer to LCL-EL mean wind)Unresolved supercell dynamic pressure perturbations?
Future Work4D EnSRF (Wang et al. 2013)500 m simulationsImproved track forecasts?Sounding data partitioningSources of vertical vorticity for the forecastsQuestions?Integrated from 0-3 kmNeighborhood Ensemble Probability7.5 km neighborhood
Updraft Helicity TracksSchwartz et al. (2010), Fig. 82100 UTC hodographs
Observed Storm MotionEnsemble Mean Storm Motion1-10 km MSL Mean Wind (Advective)
