Offender Population Forecasts

Offender PopulationForecasts

2

Studies by JLARC in 1980s

The Joint Legislative Audit & Review Commission (JLARC) first reviewed the Department of Corrections’ (DOC) forecasting procedures in 1985 and reported weaknesses in the methods used by DOC to forecast the inmate population.

A 1987 JLARC report recommended changing the forecasting process.

“The process for producing and validating the forecasts should be expanded to include more participants. Such a process would ensure that key actors in the criminal justice system have input into the forecast. Moreover, such a group would promote general understanding of the forecast and the assumptions which drive it.”

Source: An Overview of Expenditure Forecasting in Four Major State Programs, JLARC (2000)

3

Virginia utilizes consensus forecasting

An open, participative process that brings together policy makers, administrators and technical experts from all branches of state government

Department of CorrectionsDepartment of Juvenile Justice

Department of Criminal Justice ServicesDepartment of Planning & Budget

Compensation BoardSupreme Court of Virginia

Criminal Sentencing CommissionJoint Legislative Audit & Review Commission

Virginia Commonwealth UniversityParole Board

State PoliceMembers of Senate Finance and House Appropriations

Staff of Senate Finance and House AppropriationsCommonwealth’s Attorney representative

Police Chief representativeSheriff representative

Regional jail representative

4

Technical Advisory Committee

Examines trends in reported crimes, arrests, court caseloads, etc.

Develops multiple forecast models

Scrutinizes each forecast according to the highest statistical standards

Proposes forecasts with the best set of statistical properties

Liaison Work Group

Reviews projections proposed by the Technical Committee

Requests additional data or analysis as needed

Recommends forecasts to the Policy Committee

Policy Advisory Committee

Reviews the projections and selects a forecast for each population

Considers the impact of recent trends and newly adopted legislation

Approves adjustments to forecasts as it deems appropriate

Virginia utilizes consensus forecasting

Chaired by Meredith Farrar-Owens

Chaired by Barry Green, Director, DJJ

Chaired by Secretary John Marshall

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Four Offender

Forecasts Are Produced

State-responsible (SR) inmate population

Inmates housed in DOC prison facilities and

state-responsible inmates housed in jails

Local-responsible (LR) prisoner population

Prisoners confined in local and regional jails (excluding state and

federal prisoners)

Juvenile correctional center (JCC) population

Juveniles committed to the state

Juvenile detention home (JDH) population

Juveniles placed in local facilities

6

Technical Advisory Committee

Two analysts from two different agencies work independently to develop competing forecast models.

Confidence in the official forecast is bolstered if the different methods used by the two agencies converge on the same future population levels.

The Technical Committee scrutinizes each forecast according to the highest statistical standards.

Forecasts with the best set of statistical properties are recommended to the Liaison Work Group.

The Technical Committee also examines trends in reported crimes, arrests, court caseloads, etc., and provides this information to the Liaison Work Group and Policy Committee.

National and State Trends

8

From June 2007 to June 2008, the nation’s jail population increased 0.7%, the smallest annual rate of growth in 27 years.

Some of the largest jails in the South and Northeast saw declines from June 2007 to June 2008:

– Charlotte/Mecklenburg Co. - 5%

– Atlanta/Fulton Co. - 3%

– New York City - 2%

– Washington DC - 2%

– Baltimore + 2%

Sources: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/press/pimjim08stpr.htm http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/jim08st.pdf http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/pim08st.pdf

National trends in jail populations

9

From January through June 2008, the nation’s prison population increased by 0.8%, compared to 1.6% during the same period in 2007.

Sixteen states reported decreases in their prison populations from January to June 2008. The rate of growth slowed in 18 other states.

Some states in the South and Northeast experienced a decline in their prison population from January to June 2008:

– New York - .7%

– Maryland - .6%

– Georgia - .4%

– North Carolina + 3%

Sources: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/press/pimjim08stpr.htm http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/jim08st.pdf http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/pim08st.pdf

National trends in prison populations

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292278 275 283 282

270256

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Violent Index Crime Rates in Virginia, 2002 – 2008

VIRGINIA

Overall Violent Index Crime Rate Murder

Forcible Rape Robbery

Aggravated Assault

Change 2002-2008 -12.1% -9.6% -8.2% +1.5% -18.6%

Change2007-2008 -4.9% -11.3% -0.4% -3.4% -6.8%

Cri

mes

per

100

,000

po

pu

lati

on

Source: Virginia State Police Incident-Based Crime Reporting Repository System as analyzed by the Dept. of Criminal Justice Services Research Center (July 20, 2009)

Note: 2008 figures are preliminary.

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2,8512,722 2,669 2,638

2,478 2,452 2,500

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

VIRGINIA

Overall Property Index

Crime Rate Burglary LarcenyMotor Vehicle

Theft

Change 2002-2008 -12.3% -3.8% -10.4% -29.8%

Change2007-2008 +1.9% +0.0% +2.9% -6.8%

Cri

mes

per

100

,000

po

pu

lati

on

Property Index Crime Rates in Virginia, 2002 – 2008



12

Arrests of Adults (Age 18+) in Virginia, 2002 – 2008

VIRGINIA Violent(Index Crimes)

Property(Index Crimes) Drug

Change 2002 – 2008 +8.3% +32.1% +34.8%

Change 2007 – 2008 +2.2% +14.5% -6.0%

6,3396,5296,1535,9805,6925,977 6,476

23,20620,17021,65122,010

20,25120,113

26,567

29,35227,475

25,31123,29522,458

30,28032,211

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Property

Drug

ViolentNu

mb

er o

f A

rres

ts


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Drug Arrests in Virginia by Drug Type, 2004 – 2008

20

04

20

04

20

04

20

05

20

05

20

05

20

06

20

06

20

062

00

7

20

07

20

07

20

08

20

08

20

08

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Cocaine Marijuana All others

Marijuana field test kit implemented



14

47,37250,506

48,792

44,723

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Source: Supreme Court of Virginia (July 20, 2009)

While the total number of arrests for index crimes and

drug offenses was up by 2.5% in 2008, the number of felony

defendants in circuit court declined by 6.2% in 2008.

255,450249,246

243,898238,802

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Felony defendants in circuit court

New misdemeanor cases in general district court

(excluding criminal traffic misdemeanors) increased by

2.2% in 2007 and 2.5% in 2008.

New criminal misdemeanor cases in general district court

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Average Monthly Backlog of Forensic Analysis Cases

Source: Department of Forensic Science Workload Summary

5,230

9,334

18,52018,524

11,510

7,2345,858 5,305

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09*

Ba

ck

log

Ca

se

s

* FY2009 average is based on data from July 2008 through January 2009.

The growth and decline in the case backlog was due primarily to drug cases.

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Trends in drug crime and enforcement may be affecting Virginia’s jail and prison populations

Overall, drug arrests declined more than 6% in 2008.

– Cocaine arrests dropped by 26%

– Marijuana arrests increased by 1.4%

The average number of drug cases received by the Department of Forensic Science each month declined by 26% from 2006 to 2009.

– Total cocaine specimens dropped by 34% from 2006 to 2008.

The number of offenders in jail awaiting trial for felony drug charges declined by 28% between June 2007 and June 2009.

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Trends in drug crime and enforcement may be affecting Virginia’s jail and prison populations

Federal data suggest reduced availability of

cocaine. Law enforcement efforts (e.g., seizures,

crop eradication, and border security) and the

drug war in Mexico appear to be impacting the

ability of traffickers to deliver drugs to the U.S.

Local-Responsible Jail Population Forecast

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Local-Responsible Jail Population FY1999 – FY2009

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04 Jul-06 Jul-08

September 2006

Note: Data are based on the average population for each month reported. Source: Virginia Dept. of Criminal Justice Services Research Center (July 20, 2009)

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Changes in Local-Responsible Jail Population Categories

FY2009 Change

Unsentenced Awaiting Trial 8,273 -5.7%

Sentenced/Pending Additional Charges 5,531 -2.8%

Sentenced LR Felons 3,067 -2.2%

Sentenced Misdemeanants 2,800 +4.5%

Total Local-Responsible Jail Population

19,671 -3.0%

Note: Figures reflect the average population for each fiscal year reported.Source: Virginia Dept. of Criminal Justice Services Research Center (July 20, 2009)

All categories of the local-responsible jail population decreased in FY2009, except sentenced misdemeanants, which grew by 4.5%.

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Local-Responsible Jail Population FY2007 – FY2009

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

Jul '06 Jan '07 Jul '07 Jan '08 Jul '08 Jan '09 Jul '09

September 200721,027

September 200820,505

July 200919,512

August 200919,555

June 200919,355

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Discussion of the local-responsible jail population forecast

Drug crime and enforcement

Some law enforcement officials around the country are reporting an increase in drug use and/or low-level drug sales, which they link to the bad economic times and layoffs.

Will law enforcement efforts and the drug war in Mexico continue to have an impact?

With tight budgets, police departments may freeze vacancies and reduce paid overtime. This may mean fewer man-hours on patrol and fewer street arrests.

Law enforcement resources

To what degree will bad economic times be associated with increases in certain types of crimes, such as larceny or domestic violence?

Economy and certain types of crime

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Discussion of the local-responsible jail population forecast

Substance abuse and mental health treatment

Budget cuts have resulted in reductions in dollars for drug and mental health treatment for offenders. Some anticipate an increase in recidivism rates.

In Melendez-Diaz, the US Supreme Court ruled that a forensic analyst generally must testify in person, unless waived by the defendant.

During a special session, the General Assembly extended Virginia’s speedy trial requirements to ensure that the analyst is available to testify.

This may result in an increase in the length of time defendants remain in jail awaiting trial.

US Supreme Court Decision

DCJS & DPB Forecasts: Local-Responsible Jail Population

Year FY Avg. Change

FY02 15,769 4.4%

FY03 16,575 5.1%

FY04 17,414 5.1%

FY05 17,891 2.7%

FY06 19,233 7.5%

FY07 20,622 7.2%

FY08 20,278 -1.7%

FY09 19,671 -3.0%Avg.

growth3.4%

Actual:

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

FY00 FY02 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14

DPB Forecast

DCJS ForecastHistorical

Year DCJS Change DPB Change

FY10 19,414 -1.3% 19,149 -2.7%

FY11 19,378 -0.2% 19,402 1.3%

FY12 19,343 -0.2% 19,784 2.0%

FY13 19,308 -0.2% 20,165 1.9%

FY14 19,273 -0.2% 20,546 1.9%

FY15 19,237 -0.2% 20,926 1.8%

Avg. growth

-0.4%Avg.

growth1.1%

Forecast:

Approved Local-Responsible Jail Population

Year FY Avg. Change

FY02 15,769 4.4%

FY03 16,575 5.1%

FY04 17,414 5.1%

FY05 17,891 2.7%

FY06 19,233 7.5%

FY07 20,622 7.2%

FY08 20,278 -1.7%

FY09 19,671 -3.0%Avg.

growth3.4%

Actual:

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000


Average ofDCJS & DPBForecastsHistorical

Year Avg. DCJS & DPB Change

FY10 19,282 -2.0%

FY11 19,390 0.6%

FY12 19,564 0.9%

FY13 19,737 0.9%

FY14 19,910 0.9%

FY15 20,082 0.9%

Avg. growth

0.4%

Forecast:

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Local-Responsible Jail Population and Approved Forecast FY2007 – FY2010

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

Jul '06 Jul '07 Jul '08 Jul '09 Jul '10

Average of Actual DCJS & DPB Forecasts

Jul 2009 19,512 19,523 Aug 2009 19,555 19,718

Average ofDCJS & DPBForecasts

Historical

State-Responsible Inmate Population Forecast

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State-Responsible Prison Population FY2000 – FY2009

37,95738,826

32,347

30,882

34,171

35,87935,363

35,90036,486

38,387

28,000

30,000

32,000

34,000

36,000

38,000

40,000

FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09

Note: Figures reflect June 30 population for each year reported. Source: Virginia Department of Corrections (July 20, 2009)

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Persons Entering the Unsentenced Awaiting Trial Population with a Felony Charge

FY2006 – FY2009

12,000

12,500

13,000

13,500

14,000

14,500

15,000

15,500

Jul'05

Jan'06

Jul'06

Jan'07

Jul'07

Jan'08

Jul'08

Jan'09

Jul'09

Source: Compensation Board (August 5, 2009)

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New Court CommitmentsCY1999 – CY2008

11,570

9,084

11,208

10,456

9,537

12,25213,08713,036

11,90411,457

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

CY99 CY00 CY01 CY02 CY03 CY04 CY05 CY06 CY07 CY08

Note: Historical data have been updated to reflect the most recent information available from the new data system known as CORIS.

Source: Virginia Department of Corrections – CORIS System (September 9, 2009)

Preliminary

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State-Responsible Prison Population FY2007 – FY2009

36,000

37,000

38,000

39,000

40,000

Jul '06 Jan '07 Jul '07 Jan '08 Jul '08 Jan '09 Jul '09

July 200737,974

May 200838,859

December 200838,256

July 200938,329

Approved State-Responsible Inmate Forecast

Year June 30 Change

FY02 34,171 5.6%

FY03 35,363 3.5%

FY04 35,879 1.5%

FY05 35,900 0.1%

FY06 36,486 1.6%

FY07 37,957 4.0%

FY08 38,826 2.3%

FY09 38,387 -1.1%Avg.

growth2.2%

29,000

31,000

33,000

35,000

37,000

39,000

41,000

43,000


Year June 30 Change

FY10 38,429 0.1%

FY11 38,597 0.4%

FY12 38,857 0.7%

FY13 39,176 0.8%

FY14 39,531 0.9%

FY15 39,910 1.0%

Avg. growth

0.7%

Forecast:

Historical

Actual Forecast

Jul 2009 38,329 38,360 Aug 2009 38,400 38,389

Projected

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Approved State-Responsible Inmate Forecast

Year 2008 ForecastProposed

2009 ForecastDifference

FY2009 39,43138,387Actual

-1,044

FY2010 40,481 38,429 -2,052

FY2011 41,453 38,597 -2,856

FY2012 42,447 38,857 -3,590

FY2013 43,424 39,176 -4,248

FY2014 44,422 39,531 -4,891

FY2015 39,910

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Technical Probation Violator Population Forecast

2,273 2,276 2,286 2,301 2,320 2,341 2,363

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

Inm

ates

According to the Department of Corrections, only 53% of habitual probation technical violators are likely divertible; approximately 47% are not good candidates to divert because of security (22%), mental health (15%) or medical reasons (10%).

Note: Forecasted figures represent the population as of June 30 of each year.

Offender Population Forecasts

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