12gB* S' EH 012..7

E IB 11 [EI 11 11 E1 1 21 1 S Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme

A5r- W3, l

Prefeasibility EdutiomRurd Eletrfia and D em $essmnt

Report No. 129/91

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JOINT UNDP/WORLD BANK

ENERGY SECTOR MANAGEMENT ASSISTANCE PROGRAMME (ESMAP)

PURPOSE

The Joint UNDP/World Bank Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme (ESMAP) was launched in 1983to complement the Energy Assessment Program which had been established three years earlier. An internationalCommission was convened in 1990 to address the creation of ESMAP's role in the Nineties. !t concluded that theProgramme had a crucial part to play over the next decade in assisting the developing countries to better managetheir energy sectors given that the supply of energy at reasonable prices is a critical determinant of the pace andmagnitude of the growth process. The Commission's recommendations received broad endorsement at theNovember 1990 ESMAP Annual Meeting. Today, ESMAP is carrying out energy assessments, preinvestment andprefeasibility activities and is providing institutional and policy advice. The program aims to strengthen the impactof bilateral and multilateral resources and private sector investment through providing technical assistance to theenergy sector of developing countries. The findings and recommendations emerging from ESMAP activities providegovernments, donors, and potential investors with the information needed to identify economically andenvironmentally sound energy projects and to accelerate their preparation and implementation.

ESMAP's operational activities are managed by two Divisions within the Industry and Energy Department at theWorld Bank and an ESMAP Secretariat.

* The Programme's activities are governed by the ESMAP Consultative Group which consists of its co-sponsors, the UNDP and the World Bank, the governments which provide financial support and representatives ofthe recipients of its assistance. The Chairman of the Group is the World Bank's Vice President Sector Policy andResearch. He is assisted by a Secretariat headed by the Group's Executive Secretary who is also responsible for

relations with the donors and securing funding for the Programme's activities. The Secretariat also gives supportand advice to a Technical Advisory Group of independent energy experts which meets periodically to review andscrutinize the Programme's strategic agenda, its work program and other issues related to ESMAP's functioning.

* Ihe ESMAP Strategy and Programs Division is responsible for advising on which countries should receiveESMAP assistance, preparing relevant ESMAP programs of technical assistance to these countries and supports theSecretariat on funding issues. It also carries out broadly based studies such as energy assessments.

* The ESMAP Operations Division is responsible for the detailed design and implementation of taskssonsistinR mainly of sub-sectoral strategy formulation, preinvestment work, institutional studies, technical assistanceand training within the framework of overall ESMAP country assistance programs.

FUNDING

The ESMAP represents a cooperative international effort supported by the World Bank, the United NationsDevelopment Programme and other United Nations agencies, the European Community, Organization of AmericanStates (OAS), Latin American Energy Organization (OLADE), and a number of countries including Australia,Belgium, Canada, Denmark, the Federal Republic of Germany, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, theNetherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Sweden Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States.

FURTHER INFORMATION

For further information or copies of completed ESMAP reports, contact:

Office of the DirectorIndustry and Energy DepartmentThe World Bank1818 H Street N.W.Washington, D.C. 20433USA

ORThe Executive SecretaryESMAP Consultative GroupThe World Bank1818 H Street N.W.Washington, D.C. 20433U.SA

BOJVIA

PREF1ASIBILITY EVALUATION

RURAL ELECTRIFICATION AND DEMAND ASSESSMENT

ASUNTA VALLEY, BOLIVIA

Technical Report Prepared for UNDP/OPS on Rural Elecation i the Asunta Valley

APRIL 199

This document has a restricted distrbution. Its contents may not bediscosed without authorization from the Governent,

the World Bank or the UNDP.

FfAL WAR

January I to December 31

CURRENCY EQUIALENTS

Current Unit: Boliviano (Bs)Exchang Rate - US$1.00 - Bs 3.00

ABBREVIATIONS

CEC - Cooperativa Electrica de Chulumani(Rural Electric Cooperative of Chulumani)

CESSA * Cooperativa de Electrificacion Sucre SA.Electric Cooperative of Sucre)

CEY - Cooperativa Electrica Yungas(Rural Electric Coopeative of the Yungas)

COBEE - Compania Boliviana de Energia Electrica(Bolivian Power Company)

COFER - Corporacion de Fomento Energetico Rural(Corporation for the Promotion of Rural Energ)

CORDEPAZ * Corporacion d Desarrollo Regional de La Paz(Regional Development Corporation of La Paz)

CORDEPO - Corporacion de Desarrollo Regional de Potosi(Regional Development Corporation of Potosi)

COSELEREC - Cooperativa Servicios Electricos Trinidad(Cooperative of Electric Services Trinidad)

COSELECA * Cooperativa Servicios Electricos Camiri(Cooperative of Electric Services Camiri)

CORELPAZ * Cooperativa Servicios Electricos La Paz - Altiplano(Rual Electric Cooperative of La Paz)

CRE * Coopemtiva Rural do Ele on- Santa Cruz(Rural Electrifiaton Cooperative - Santa Cruz)

DINE - Diecion Nacional de Electicidad(National Electricity Directorate)

ELFEC a Empres d L y uea Electrica de Cochabamba(ectrb Power Compaq of Cochabamba)

ELEFEO e Empress de Luz y Fuena do Omro(Electric Power Company of Oruro)

ENDE - Empresa Nacional de Electrcad(National Electric Power Company)

ESMAP * Energy Sector Management Assistance Progm

INE * Instituto Nacional Estadistica(National Statistics Institute)

MACA * Ministerio de Asuntos Campesino y Agopecuarios(Ministry of sino and A lt Airs)

MEH - Minlsterio de Energa e Hidrocarburos(Ministry of Enerag and Hydrobons)

NRECA * National Rural Electric Cooperative Association of the U.S.

OPS - Office for Project Services (UNDP)

REA 0 Rural lectrication Adminstrtion (USDA)

SEPSA - Servicios Electrioos Potosi SA(lectric Service of Potosi SA)

SETAR - Servicios Electricns de Tarija S.A(Electric Service of Tarija SA)

UNFDAC - United Nations Fund for Drug Abuse Control

USAID - United States Agency for International Development

USDA - United States Department of Agriculture

UNDP - United Nations Development Progranume

* *------ ........ .

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V. JINANCAJ..ECONONIIC EVAIUAnAION ...... ............................. . 40Financial-Econonic Viability of crid Scenarios . * ......... 40

Ov iew ... .................................................. 40Ficonomicbia .An........................................... 40Eo o nodci Arost.. ....... ........... ....... 9* 9....... 44Genad4A6ib Pammnte ................................................ 41Cos e .................................................. 41

lbd5..oaPrioto..........,.................................. 46

FineEiatenefit ....... ............... . 9*9**9**999*9***9...... 42EononmBeneft .r . ... ............*9***e99***9** . ....... 42

Mo d mi Re istr Unt v aOpndTi cl G iowth Require. ents.................. 44Obsenatiors ................................................ 44

VL NCSTI.TJMONSL ASPECv N .... IONS........................................ 46Ru1dba b utiand Otin Yuigrs ......................................... 46

2verdvew ......... ....................................... 46CEY ..............................a...................... 46L2a d Pr omotion . .... ..... ..................99.**.*..**.*** *..... 46l ineD Extension Finanig ............................................ 47

3o itedonsin Pherfojec Area .H ...............ouseCuntan Eecte nnect....*. 483Adndminisfotveand Ternal Alestance R. . ements ............... . 49

3IL CONCLUSIONSeAND RECrOMrtNDATIONS .......................... 1

3. otnIm al P.od..ti .e ..n ..Us .s.........................*.......*..... 21

R3.un.rdutie EdeUs. Ativties 3.8 Est iatefCns uinrDbnnd S. ........ *.. 21

3.9 DeniandEstimte(k ~ V) ab.. ity.........................*........... 523

4In.1iEtutonalianilitvend c .. ................................ . 52

4.2 tPandad Voltaederani s ............................................ 57I EWonaued a end opiisi orW t scena............o................ v

43 SumarThiryC nnpax bonu olAt age J)ropan m . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

42 EtUnitedi on EntinkW .a ........................................... 23 . Comarsn ofAlemtive la P"e AIL HuebandEXed Mi ................................... vi

4.6 DcepartmenCOts b 599999999999999999999999 3

4. lootgrnalveScEnaot1*Roj9Zone..... .................... * .. 33232 Mxafin EDUshi flon EbsndSes .............................................. 173A2 Loh Prodctie En id Ussfr in Projectone ....................................... 16353 Pro"ducivEnd-Usesfo Exte>nud Sales ......................................... 173.4 Pruoductive sEnd-Uses for T..ortation................................. 213.7 Poteent d us*tries hib an gr nd ustreA6s . ....................................... 19

33 Esdmated Number of Congatm s .......................................... 233.9 Dn dEstimate (W) .............................................. 234.1 ESMA~Pand CXY Demand Pro30cons ......................................... 264.2 S " Voltap RanM .............................................. 274.3 Yea Thirty Mbsdmum Voltage Drop ......................................... 284A4 Unitized Cos Esthabs .............. ................ 2945 S oad -Volt Drop .............................................., 314.6 Sceario b C Qx .......................... * 324.7 Alkanatve Scenado ib vok rkop .................... 33

4.8 AtemnativeScenariolb.Costs .......................................... 344.9 Alternative Soenaro U * Volt Drop . ................................... 354.10 AlternatieScenario fl -Cost ....... .................................. 354.11 Altenative Scenario m Combined System ................................... . 364.12 Altenative Scenaio m : Volt Drop . .................................. 374.13 AlternativeSenado m l Costs ... . ...... . .. . . .. . . . . .. . 384.14 SuIaL Comparion of Alternatves Ia Ib U, and m .................. ... 394.15 First YearSFunnai Requirements-Alternatlve- Sc II ................. . 395.1 Pinncia-Econonuc R.lts- Probable . ....... . . ..... 4352 Financial-Eoonomic Results - Optinistic . ........ 44

ANNEXES1 Load Projections-Demand Tables ..................................... 562 Unitized Cos t Esdmates ................................. ............ 663 V ge op Sheet............ 684 VoltageProfile 72S Etiated Scope of Engeeng S....................... 736 7la7nalCostCal on 77 ..a.... ........ 798 scptionoftheRu Ele fationPlanning Modd.................... 809 A Mehodology for Estimating Electric ty's Residential and Productive

End-UscEconomicBenefits-Application in the Asunta Valley RuralElectrification Prefeasibility Study ...................... ....... 81

10 Proect Summary - Compute Runs ............................ 9911 Proposed Prod ve Uses Component ................................. 14112 Cooperativa Electrica Yungas C.E.Y. - Electrici6n Rural Nor y Sud Yunas.. 143

MPIBRD Map 22437 - UNDP Technical Assistae Proect4 Plan Maps # 22908 - Agrayuns Estudio Preliminar Altornativo Ia, Ib, I m

EXECUTIE SUMMARY

Bacground

Objectives

1. The overall objectives of the technical assistance activity are twofold. The first isto assist the project Directorate J/ as well as officials in the Ministry of Energy and Hydrocarbons(MEH) and the Ministry of Campesino and Agricultural Affairs (MACA), in two principal afeas:

(a) assessing the technical, financial/economic and institutional viability of the proposed132 kilometers of rural grid extension in the Yungas project area with the goal ofdeveloping the least-cost electrification scenario that corresponds to project planninginterests; and

(b) conduct an analysis of existing and prospective demand in the project zone, withemphasis on the contribution of productive end-uses for enhancing load and theviability of the proposed grid.

2. The second objective is to utilize and demonstrate a more accurate way to developand incorporate demand estimates for electricity in rural areas into the appraisal of nrralelectrification projects. Thi objective is developed through the utilization of a Demand AssessmentModel (DAM) which allows for demand and cost input and the calculation of financial-economicviability Related to the second objective, and in terms of a case study for the MEH, the activityseeks to demonstrate the need to coordinated the technical dimensions of rural grid extension witha methodological and field-based evaluation of rural demand. This complementary approach allowsfor a more aocurate consideration of project viability and development of most appropriate griddesign, or alternative energy options. In developing demand estimates, the study also demonstratesthe enhanced viability rendered by incorporating produc:ve end-uses development in ruralelectrification planning.

3. The composite study presents prefeasibility analysis of four scenarios for ruraleletrification in the project zone. The first scenario includes a review of a grid extension scenario

/ U. Pund for Drug Abuse Control (UNFPAC) in Bolivia is completing a pha of a US$2 m ion rural integrateddvelopment project in the Yungas region whic, at the time of this assesent, was AlledAgyungs Theprojectis executed by llNDP/OPS. UNDAC's rural pjt npoa in> Insm wt agrilatalwand a-e enterse development. The spec engr mpont of te A_oyus project (as of Januaiy1, the A project was tned wih any folow-up beig asume by UNFDAC) consits of plans for uralgrld eatensdon (apprklately3O kilomets), thughout the Asna valley pject zone.

The DAM model is desined for calulating the financald and economic vibity of ural electificaton projesThe model aLows for analys of the viabil of alterne tehil scenarios conidering field-basd demandprojectons (developed at the vilge level) under categories 'probableW and 'optimistie. in addiion to redenidemand, the model i used to identify and quatiy iotng and potential productive end.uses The model wasdevelWed by the Nadonl Rura Elecr Coopeve Asocion (NRECA) and is curently being utilzed byUSA in its Centra America Rural Electifcation Progm for project planning. Te mode's basi methodologyis dese in Chapter IV, and Annex 9.

-iie

prepared for Ag as by the Cooperativa Electrica Yungas (CEY)-a rural distribution entitynearby the project area. Ihe four scenarios developed in the report are outfined below:

Scenario Ia * CEY Preliminazy Technical Desin and Demand Estimates.Scenado lb * CEY Prminay Technical Dedgn/ESMAP Demand Projections.Scenario II - ESMAP Alternative Design/ESMAP Demand Projections.Scenario Ell * ESMAP Alternative Design/ESMAP Demand Projections

(Scenario Im, in contrast to strict grid ectension of the other scenarios, proposes partial gridextension and an Isolated grid with a hydropower generation facility. Between the grid extensionand the isolated system, project planning intere of alt=m*i& cgs would be assured).

4. In addition, scenarios IV. and V. (renewable generation and isolated systems) arebriefly discsed but detailed drawings and calculations are not presented. The reasons for this arecost considerations-scenario IV, a proposal for decntrlized generation and an isolated grid, atUS $42 million vastly exceeds the cost of grid-eension scenarios-and the interest of the projectDirectorate to provide comrehbmi gWd covrag in the project zone-given limited demand,scenario V proposes a mini-hydro power site and a small distribution network around one town,satisfing 18% of projected demand.

5. ETde Area The geneal area of the project is approximately 100 kflometersnortheast of the capital of La Paz in the Yungas region of BolMia (see IBRD Map 22437). Thearea dwactized by motous teain, deep valeys and generally poor transportationnetworks The area, however, holds fertile valleys from which numerous crops (vegetables, fruits,coffee, etc.) are produced. The area is also a prime coca producing region and alternative caoppromotion is a main focus of the projecL

6. The specific project area for the rural electifiction component incorporates theAunta vaey. As contemplated by project planners, the grd exension would be connected to thenational grid in the soudtwtern portion of the project area in the town of Chulumani Iheimmediate areas in the Yungas acoining the project zone are princialy served by CEY, whichpurhases power from Compania Bolilana de Energia Electrica (COBEE), through lines of theEmpresa Nacional de Electricidad (ENDE).

7. The technical analyi commenced with a review of a prelmary study on gridextension for the zone 11 prepared originally for Agrytingas. The analys is referred to as scenarioIla. With this analysis as a basis, the general terms of reference for the tecnical assistance wereas follows:

(a) review existing, prelimlnay technical design and, if necesazy, outline technical areasfor cost reductions on the proposed grid;

Mm an1s pr.m by Cocpt*va Bed" YUg for A1989) is ,ftd 'Euo .eA-s Ap ype(cemIc 1969).

.Hi1.

(b) via field re at the vilW level, ystemadcaly identify eisting andpotenial demand in the prject zone, including existing and potential productiveeand-us for the rral electrction, wi the goal of building load and enhancingth finncllmconoic viabiity of the proposed tem;

(c) with the assistan of the DAM planing model, and based upon the demandcalculions developed by the study team, conduct a financial-economic analysis onthe nrual line ension, as wel as on alternative technical scenarios developed toreflect potential cost savings; and

(d) develop an instituional outlne for the grid ex on in the project area-in this casefocusing on the viability of the rural electric cooperative in the Yungas-CEY.

nand AnEsis

8. For the demand anawysis, and based upon field assessment, residential and productiveend-use elecricity demand in the Asunta valley project zone is projected. The demand projectionsdeveloped by the ESMAP technical consultant team are approximately 65% less than CEY'sorWal demand estimates presented for swenario IL For the anasis, residential and productiveend-use demand are identified and quantified Residental demand consists primarily of domesticghtirn Productive enduses of electicity are defined as:ny use of electricity which increases the

end-users' ecnomic status by ficilitating production level iceases, production cost savings, and/orincrased product quaity. From the point of view of a utiity, productive end-uses would have theeffect of load bulding and generally augmeting the off-peak load.

9. For all scenarios analzed, demand ib estimated in kW and consumption in kWh permonth for the reddential ad productive end-use categories The demand estimates for scenariosIb U and m are projected and considered under both 'probable' and loptimistic demand growth.

10. ResidenXl Demand. Based on the house count conducted in the project zone,geographicl and technical constraints, as well as individual community charactenstics, the technicalteam estimates the number of houeholds in each of the 39 communities likely to connect in year1. The sum of the initial connects Is about 56% of the project house count, which constituteshoues in 39 comunitie ndividual arcterics of the communities influence projections forgrwth in new resdental connectom over ty years

1I. Based on the field analys, in the zonc, the study projects that residentialconnecions in year 1 wIl be 937, growing to 3,000 in year 30. Using initial and year 30 totals, ayearly average growth rate in new connections of 4% is expected. Initial residential kWh/month

aiv-

consunptlon-based on evalvations from similar electrfied zones In Bolhiia and other ruralelectrification projects-Is conservatively projected at 15 kWh/month. Fo. year 30,40 kWh/monthis projected for residential consumption. 9

12. EmdUvAEndUAgJbdlxat=Dlmanud Existing(butnotnecessarilyelectrified)as well as potential productive end-uses are identified for the project area. This identification iscarried out via reconnaissance in the specific project zone and In siiar electrified areas in theYuns, as well as an appraisal of the agro-ecological and mineral potential in the zone. Theproposed complementaty integrated development activities of theAgrayungas projet are also takeninto account. In all, a total of 37 eistng and pnal produt Md-uses are identifid andconsidered.

13. In addition to identifying types and quantifying the kWh/month consumptioncharacteristics of the productive end-use activities, estinates are made regarding their number inyear 1 and epected rate of growth over the course of 30 years. Different growth rates areconsidered for various types of identified activities. The number and potential growth in theseactivities -- ... dered on the general basis of the following factors:

- Availability of a reliable electricity supply in the project zone;Natural resources in the project zone;

- Existing or potential demand for the product or services; and- Observed xperiences and activities in similar electrified zones in the Yu'igas region.

14. The composite result is a projection in the type, number and growth rate forproductive end-use activities that are epected in the project area in year 1 through year 30. Theype, number and expected growth rates are presented under "probable" and "optimistic growthsituations.

15. hgA a GrwtRahe. Under the 'probable' growth scenario developed by thetechnical team, the aggregate average growth rate for all productive end-use activities over 30 yearsis approdmately 4%. Under the "optimistic growt scenario, the rate is appromiately 5%.

hddWRm ba of Cosmers and Esiated Demand

16. Based upon the field data and analysi, the total estimated number of residential andproductive end-use consumers under the 'probable" and 'optimistic growth scenario are as follows:

ESM tem projeion, basod on fleld sans, arn enswatve yet 8be a ealistc a _umea of vabl. Theprjt re is con_el ral with only one smll town La AU a) with vegy litdte infsuu

iblS It PRULE AND OPTINISTIC ROW SCEIURIO

YEam YAR 30 TIARI WAR1t30

(a) ResfdentlConsumers 93 3,000 3 3,000

(b) Prodectlve UseConus 22 .. AZ * .221

(C) TOTAL 1,139 3,672 1,190 4,136

Motes The preliminary stucy of C£1 infers 2000 ridentIal coaumrs and 404 productive-usle consumers In year 1.

17. Based upon the estimated consumption in kWh per month, and with the use ofdemand tables developed for the anaysis, total demand estimates in kW are summariz as follows:

Tabte 2: ESTINATED DENAND IN kW

Probable QptfmfstfcYear 1 Year 30 Year I Yer 30

Deand In kW 198 94? 243 1,313

Note: The preLiminary study of CnI Infers 600 kW dmand In year 1, and 2,800 kWDIn year 30.

Technica Opton

18. The main activities pertaining to the engineering assessment were defined as follows:

(a) Review prelimina distribution designs developed by CEY in view of the need toreduce distribution costs and enhance the financial-economic and institutionalviability of the proposed grid extension, recommending changes that might contributeto these objectives, eg. types of lines, changes of route, equipment and potentialconnections to other load centers which might enhance project viability; and

(b) Review/revise proposed technical parameters of grid extension based upon demandmodifications developed through the field analysis.

19. The technical team projected demand is approxmately 65% less than that projectedin the CEY study. CEY demand projections are utilized, however, in the engineering analysis ofscenario la to allow comparative analysis with the alternative scenarios presented. Demandprojections developed by the technical team remain constant for altenative scenarios Ib, II and m.

I vi &

20. Table 3 presents a summary comparison for the technl scenarios for which loadand costs are estimated:

Tbte 3: SURY COUARAISON OF ALTERNUTIVES la, lb, It, A10 III I

Item la lb II III

Numer of Consuerse(project.d) 7,384 3.672 3,672 3.672Peak Demand, kW 2,J86 946 946 946Primary Distribution line, km 132 132 132 132Secondary Line, km 130 64.5 6.5 64.5NHters and Services 6,498 3,224 3,224 3,244Transformer Capacity, kva 5sm 1,892 1,892 1,892Generating plant, kV 0 0 0 300Construction Cost S 2,005,000 1,433,270 1,077,270 1,569,270Engineering and

Admfnistration, 15X 300,750 214,990 161,600 253,390Contingencies, 10X Z00500 J43 U330 107.J .JOS6930Total Cost $ 2,506,250 1,791,S90 1,346,600 1,979,590

aI For each of the alternatIves presented, there are 132 kilometers of primarythree-phase or single-phase lines. Differences in cost result from varyingthe type of line or size of conchxtor.

21. Least-Cost Option for Comorehensive Grid. On the basis of technical and financial.economic analysis investigated, scenario II as presented would represent a least-cost scenario forproject planning interest of comprhens rura gra

Financial-Economic Evaluation

22. Application of the DAM model shows that none of the anayzed options is financiallyviable under the *probable" or "optimistic" growth scenario, assming the utflity has to bear theentire construction cost. To break-even finacially, the project would require a donation ofapproximately US$.97 million under the *probable" scenario of alternative IL and US$.82 under the"optimistice scenario. However, all scenarios show a positive economic rate of return. Thefinancial/economic viability of the project for scenario It (considered the least-cost scenario), basedupon the DAM model calculations, is presented below:

- Scenario I1 - Probable GrowthFinancial Net Present Value (NPV) = US$-974,401Financial Benefit/Cost (B/C) - 0.46Economic NPV n US$678,768Economic B/C = 131Econ. Rate of Return - 17.8%

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- Scenaio II Optinistic GrowthFinancial Net Present Value (NM) US$829,737Financial Benefit/Cost (B/C) a 0.57Economic NPV = US$1,153,663Economic B/C = 1.47Econ. Rate of Return = 21%

23. On the economic side, scenario U has the grte ecoomic net present value-xcluding scenario Ia with its overstated number of projected consumers and demand. Economic

benefit under alternative scenario U is roughly between US$.68 - 1.15 mllion in net present valueterms, vawyeg by the productive end-use scenario chosen.

24. The retai residential tariff (above 25 kWh) is US$.052, and US$.056 for productiveuses. While the analysis did not portend to conduct a tariff study for CEY, it is evident that theretail tariff structure at the distribution level applied to project area b below the marinal cost, eg.the marginal cost at bulk level for year 1 is estimated at 0.055 kWh (see Annex 6). In addition tothe formalized promotion and development of productive end-uses in the project zone, thedevelopment and application of a rational tariff regime would enhance the projects overall financialviabililty.

nstittional Evaluation

25. Assuming upward tariff adjustments by CEY, coupled with the sustained promotionOf productive end-uses on the part of the project and CEY to enhance the financial viability of theproject, the mission considers that the most appropriate institutional administation of the rural grid(given the project's priority in omrehensive gri cva) would be to extend the service areaof the existing rural cooperative. Proxiity to, years of operation nearby and famfliarity withelectrification in the Yungas leaves CEY as the most appropriate entity for distribution in theproposed project zone. However, detailed institutional analysi would be required with the goalof developing an administrative and technical assistance program for CEY as part of the project.

26. Formed in the late 1970's CEY cwuently serves some 4,000 consumers. Since itsformation, the cooperative has received limited technical or institutional assistance. Theincorporation of the Asunta valley service area and 132 kms of grid and 1,004 additionalconnections would be a large addition in terms of management, operation and maintenance. Forthe financial velfare of the institution and assured operation and maintenance of the proposed gridextension, s- comprehensive institutional analysi of CEY is reowmmended. Specifically, theobjectives of this assessment would be to be to analye the following:

(a) the current financial situation (including tarff struure);

(b) general administative procedures and capabilities;

(c) the technical capabilies of CEY to administr the propose grid extension;and;

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(d) the costs and capabilities of CEY to develop an instignaLizeroQgram ofpromotion of productive end-uses.

The overall goal would be to strengthen the fiancial and organizational position and guaranteethe cooperative's ability to successfl serve its current sevice area and that proposed by thecontemplated grid extension.

27. In terms of the objective of completing an analysis for rural grid extension,application of the DAM model to establish the financial-economic viability of the scenarios showsthat no scenario is financially viable. This is the case under both the "probable and "optimisticedemand growth scenario as developed by the technical team. In contrast, all alternative scenariosare viable in economic terms. In particular, scenario II (as the least-oost option for comprehensiverural grid extension) shows an economic benefit of between US$.69 million in net present valuevalue terms for the "probable growth scenario, and approximately US$1.15 million for theoptimistic growth scenario. The economic rate of return for the scenario II is calculated at 17.8%(probable) and 21% (optinistic).

28. From the perspective of the rural distribution entity CEY, the absence of financialviability, despite the development of the least-cost scenario for comprehensive coverage, denotesa negative financial burden on the institution. In sum, the financial viability of the project wouldhave to be increased in order to ensure the institutional viability of CEY. Two complementaryways to augment the financial viability would be:

(a) The development and application of a rational tariff regime for CEY that wouldallow CEY to develop and apply tariffs that cover marginal costs; along with

(b) The development and application of an institutionalized promotion of productiveend-uses in the project zone on the part of UNFDAC and CEY. The programwould have to focus on industry and agro-industrial development in the project zonein order to build load and enhace the return on the project investment).

Developed in tandem, points (i) and (ii) would be crucial for enhancing the project' financialviability and, in the long-term, guaranteeing the institutional viability of the grid extension and CEY.

Policy Implications for Rural Electrification Planning

29. Finally, there are important policy conclusions that can be derived for ruralelectrification in terms of the energy planning activity. In addition to points (i) and (ii) on tariffreform and the need to incorporate productive end-uses promotion in rural electrification planning,the following issues are demonstrated in the study:

ix -

(a) Expenditures at the prefeasibility level is more than justified in the cost savingsrealized in plant investment, e.. for less than US$ 50,000, the identified cost savingsamounted to over US$ 1 million;

(b) Significant cost savings resulted from more accurate demand forescasting. Theimportance, therefore, Is demonstrated of a detailed and field-based demandanalysis running parallel and complementary to the technical identificaion of least-cost system design;

(c) On the benerits side, the high economic rate of return is dependent, in part, on theconnection of the lowest income consumers, Le. candle users To this end, a poliqyof loan financing for connections to this, as well as other consumer groups, wouldbe merited. Such financing might be facilitated through monthly billing charges

I INTRODUCTION

hwgd 2AR

National Enera Planning Activty

1.1 In an effort to address issues of energy sector planning at the national and regionallevel in Bolivia, the joint UNDP/World Bank Energy Sector Management Assistance Program-ESMAP-is currently working in conjunction with the Ministr of Energy and Hydrocarbons (MEH)and a national energy planning team formed with the MEH to strengthen energy plamningcapabilities. One specific outcome of this technical coUlaboration wi be the development of aNational Energy Plan within the MEH.

1.2 Within the framework of the composite planning activity-where both theoonventional and non-conventional energy sectors are being evaluated-key issues and prospectiveinvestment in the household and rural energy subsectors are being identified. As one componentof the household and rural energy analyses, the issue of rural electrification-including weaknessesin national/regional organization, analysis and planning in the subsector, as well as the lack ofadequate demand analysis and technical assistance at the site-specific level-is being assessed andinstitutional and technical recommendations developed.

Technical Assistance to UNFDAC and Agroyungas

1.3 Pursuant to a technical assistance mission of ESMAP in September 1989 to thenational energy planning team in the MEH-specifically focused on organization and planning inrural electrification-UNFDAC Bolivia and the Directorate of its Agroyungas project V (workingin counterpart with the Ministry of Agriculture and Campesino Affairs-MACA) requested ESMAPtechnical assistance. Specifically, the assistance was solicited for analysis of a rural electrificationcomponent of an integrated rural development project under the execution of UNFDAC. lheareas of the requested assistance-while project specific-complement components being analyzedin the national energy planning activity, ie. an evaluation of the status of rural electrificationplanning, an evaluation of existing or potential programs for promoting productive end-uses forrural electrification, and an analysis of the institutional viability of rural energy systems.

1.4 In preliminary discussions with the project Directoriate, it was noted that the ruralgrid component of the project is being designed from a technical/engineering standpoint, withmarginal attention to an as.essment of the actual residential or productive end-use demand

U.N. Fund for Drug Abuse Contol (UNFDAC) In Bol"ia X oompleting a phas of a USS million rual interteddwelopment project in the Yungas region which, at the time of ts assewnent was called Agroyunps. The projetIs enctedby UNDP/OPS. UNFDACs nrual project Ipoates rural nfstructwr vestment with aguland mol-scal enterpre dewelopment. e spcfic ener component of the A wtas projet ( of Januar1, the Agroyu pect was termated with any foow-up bei aume by UNFDAC) consi of plansfor rarid meo (apprnmatet 130 kilmetes), throughout the unta valley project zone

-2-

in the region (either that whih exists or prospective demand, Including that which will beincorporated as rural development components of the project). In addition, there is little emphasisplaced on either the financial-economic viablity of the grid etenon or the Insdtutional viabilityin terms of the capability of the rural distribution entity In the region (Electric Cooperative of theYungas-Y) to operate and maintain the proposed extension. The situation, however, is notuncommon in Bolivi (see Para. 2.14 - 2.15). Based upon information being collected for theNational Energy Plan, rural elecification projects are found to be lacking an adequate assessmentof demand or promotion of productive end-uses, as well as adequate consideration of the fiancial-economic or institutional viability.

1.5 Ihe composite output of this analysis-outlined throughout the following chapters--has been prepared for review on the part of the Directorate of the project and GOB counterparts.Pursuant to a country overview, the analysis consists of a technical, financial-economic andinstitutional assessment of rural elecrification in the project area of interest. Given the on-goingcollaborative assistance between the MEH and ESMAP, the analysis also serves as a case study forproject specific rural electrification planning In this regard, the study seeks to demonstrate theutility of a field-based evaluation of rural electricity demand in the project zone complemented bythe utilization of a financial-economic model for evaluating the viablity of rural grid extension. Insum, the anabsis wfll provide project decision makers with an overview of the viability of theproposed grid, as well as a planning model for the national energy planning team in the MEH forimproving assessment capabilities of rural electrification projects.

objectives

1.6 The general objectives of the activity therefore are twofold. The first is aprefeasibility evaluation of a relatively small rural electrification project (132 kiometers). Thesecond objective is to explore for more accurate and methodological ways to quantify andincorporate demand estimates for electricity in rural areas into the appraisal of rural electrificationprojects. The latter of these objectives is executed through utXiation of a planning model calledthe Demand Assessment Model (DAM) "'.

1.7 Specificaly, the objectives are defined as follows:

(a) assess the technical, financial/economic and institutional viability of the proposed132 kilometers of rural grid in the project area, with the goal of developing the least-cost scenario that corresponds to project planning interests; and

(b) as a case study for ural electrification analysis, conduct a field-based assessment ofexsting and potential demand in the project zone (one that at the village-unit level

mThe DAM model Is designed for calating the fcial and economic viabil of rual elecificadon projecsThe modd aBows for analys of the viablit of aleative teical scenaios conddefing fieldbased demandprojctions (deveoped at the vilage vel) under categoris "probable and opmc". In addin to rsdenmtldemand, the model I used to den* and quanr msting and potential productive endu The modd wasdeeloped by the National Rua Eectic Coopeai Asocation (NRBCA) and Is cwrent being utied byUSAI in its Contral Ameica Rural Eerifiaon Proram for project planng The model's bas*c methodologyI drbe in Chapter IV, and Agex 9.

.3-

identifies and measres eisting and prospective residential demand, as well as thecontnrbution of existing and potential productive end-use demand) for demand datainput and assessment of project viability.

1.8 Related to the latter point, for plannin purpoes the activity seeks to demonstratethe need to coordinated the technical dimensions of rural grid ettension with a financial-economicassessment that incorporates a field-based methodological evaluation of residential and productiveend-use demand. As a planng tool, this complementary approach is provided through theuthiztion of the DAM. Ihe model, whose development and methodological assumptions areexplained in detail in Annex 9, allows for consideration of a projects financial-ecnomic viabilitybased on ystem desig input and costs and the input of demand esdmates in both residential andproductive end-use categories. Of partiular importance, the composite demand estinates aredeveloped at the village unit level. That is, rural electriciy demand estimates are quantified viafield-based reconnaissance in the communities throughout the project zone.

1.9 The composite study presents prefeability anabsis for four scenarios (Ia, Ib, II andIII) for grid extension rural electrification in the project zone. Soenario m proposes grid extensionand a complementary decentralized hydropower generation facilitywith an isolated grid. ScenariosIV. and V. (renewable generation and completely isolated grids) are also brieflY diSCUsed butdetailed plan maps and calculations are not presented. The reasons for this are cost considerations--scenario 1V, by constucting a 12 MW plant and completely isolated grid, is significantly morecostly (US$42 milion) than interconnected grid etension, as weUl as the interest of the projectDirectorate to provide gimpveh gri ge in the rojo oneIren the limited demandas d by the technical team, scenario V. proposes a mini-hydro power site (300 kW) and alimited distribtion network.

1.10 As a startng point, the technical consutant team reviewed the preiminary analysisfor grid exension developed orginally the project by the ural distribution entity nearby the projectarea, CEY. Outlning and building on this study, the tehnical anablis expands to present threealternative technical scenarios for grid exension along with cost estimates. Application of theDAM evaluation model allows for the input of residential and productive end&use demand and, inturn, a financial-economic appraisal of the various scenarios under 'probable and 'optimis loaddevelopment.

Aciiies

1.11 Specifically the terms of reference for the technical team were as follaw:

(a) review existing, prelumiy technical desg (scenario 1a) and, if necessary, outlinetecnical areas for cost reductions on the proposed grid;

(b) via a field-based analysis, systematically identify demand in the project area,inAuding exsting and potential productive end-uses for the rural electicaton;

. 4 -

(c) based upon the demand caltions developed and Input by the technical team,conduct a financial-economic analysi on the proposed rural line xtension (senarioIa), as well as on alternative technical scenarios (scenarios Ib, II, and Iml) developedto reflect potential cost saving; and

(d) develop an institutional outine for the grid extension in the project areafocusing on the viabflity of the rural electric cooperative in the Yungas-CEY.

1.12 International expertise for the technical asistan consisted of two electricalengineers (expertise in rural line desig), as well as two rur electrification productive end-usespecialists. Te latter two conducted the financial/economic evaluation using the DAM planningmodel. Two national engineering consultants were hired by the project Directorate as counterparsand particpated in all aspects of the study. This mission was undertaken in cooperation with theNational Rural Electric Cooperative Association Oa the U.S. (NRE(^A) -whkh has had experiencein the design and implementation of rural electrification activities in Bolivia- operating underfunding provided by USAID. The NRECA facilitated the participation of one of the electricaldesin engineer and one productive end-use specialist

1.13 The main technical mission was fielded from Januaty 8 through January 31, 1990Technical and logistical assistance was provided directly from the Agroyungas project Directorateand Staf£ Field visits were made to the project area and interviews conducted with project fieldpersonnel, the Directorate of the rural cooperative CEY, throughout numerous communities andwith potential productive endusers in the project zone. Meetings were also held with officials inthe World Bank office in La Pua UNDP, UNFDAC, the MEH, MACA, as well as withrepentaties from ENDE and COBEE.

V l report is basd oh findins of "tti msn whici vid Boa. Mm misn membe WeMunwqy lon Leader D. Met, AL Manon (Une Dsi Ene). E Vil_n, R. Oreo (Rura Demandand Prodie EndUsU Speists). Tmisino was ated at the nation level by Mourn (Elctlngeer) and D. Klttebon (Prodce EndUse Selt). D. aers and C. Feinstein f AP a d I

the i_ _anayes.* _ Scrtia uppoft wa prowided by N. Leon and D. Balal

EL COUNTRY OVERVIEW

am-m" AIW dZaUQ Data

2.1 Bolia Is a moderately szed, landlodked ounty In South America covering aurface area of approamatelY 1.1 mllion square kilomet It b bounded to the west by Chie

and Peru, to the north and east y Brail, and to the south y Parauy and Argentina. Thecountly is divided into nie political d epartmentswhich ompr a de range of social, culturaland pyical resouesL he departments can be grouped rough lato three physl aa saingdmatolog6cal and gographical at the pno (high planes) the Val.es (valleys), and theTropicos (tropical zones)-although some departms rIbutes from all three geographicregins.

TobtZikL N-2PARIENS BY KOJONwos~~~~~~..o~*ps~mn

Attipltar La Pa

PotoiYutteB Cochdbui

Chiqusac

TropIco Santa CrnRentPfo

Mirfa: Nftsien assessmiflt.

22 Boliia's poplation is aoatel 7.3 milion It is esmated that 51% (3.7miion) of the tot populaton lives in towns containig more than 2000 abitants; the NationalStal 1ntiu (INE) uses this desigation to ident *urban are. Approximately 70,OOOof the total uan population live in the capital of La Paz Since 1980, the national urbanpopulation ha grown at a rate of 2.6% per year. Of the total rural population of 3.5 million, it isesdmat that dsighy under one-half are found in the Altiplano, which occupies about 19% of thenational terty. The Valles ontain over 30% of the rural population yet cover 12% of the total

rface area. Ihe Tropioos, which occupy 69% of the total land mas, are the least denselypopuated areas of the country and hold appom 17% of the rural population.

If Nautd for 10 bun an acta Word Bank gattgl for 16(6 alc) and eated pouati growhrt. for 19200(2 % p. a.)

.6e

,cD= F&2MQQd=.

2.3 The early 1980's marked Bolivia's worst eoonomic cisis of the century. The artfcialeconomic boom whih dominated the 1970's, fed by capital n and the discovey of substantialhydrocabon resources, was folowed by a precipitous deteioration beg1ini in 1980. Net foreigtradsfers became strongly negate, real GDP fell each year and capital flight accelerated aseconomic poldies beme erratic and By September 1985, annual infladon hadreached 24,000%, GDP per capita stood at only 80% of its 1980 level and public sector defcitsaccounted for one-fourth of GDP.

2.4 A wide ranging economic stabizao program was introduced in 1985 whichindluded elimination of price controb, dereglation in the trade system and the labor market,establishment of a uniform hange rate (dermined tough daily auions) d policies toreduce public sector deficits Tbis brought an immediate end to hyperinflation; inflation was downto 11% in 1987,22% in 1988 and 6% in the first six months of 1989. Public debt has been broughtunder control and the exchange rate has remained unified. The impact on economic growth,however, had been somewhat less dramatic due to negative terms of trade during the initial yearsof the program. Growth in 1987 and 1988 was positive, but not sufficient to balac the growth inthe population. As a result, per capita income has continued to decrease and remains under US$600.

2.5 The Bolivian economy remai fundamentally dependent on natual ps and mineral(tin and silver) exports as sources of foreign exchange and for servicing its relatively lae externaldebt (approximately US $5 blllion.1989). In 1988 these commodities represented 83% of totalmerchandise exports Thus, the economy remains vulnerable to the vagaries of internationalcommodities markets Even so, the remarkable stability achieved under the 1985 stabilizationProgram can be maintained should the current Government continue to exercise sound economicpolicies. Short to medium term support will be needed from multilateral and btral sources andit is exte that debt service payments wi need to be reschedued in order to sustain economicgrowth.

2.6 Stn. ture of lhe current stucture of GDP reflects an ease in the shareof non-factor services, the commerce and finan sectors. Ihe agriciutural sector's contnrbutionto GDP has remained relatively fixed throughout the past two decades (24%), whereas theindustial ctos share has deeased (from 31% to 23%) whie the service sector has beenincreasing (from 46% to 52%). Public sector paiciation in the production and provision ofservices-in the early 1980's the state was involved in 50% to 80% of all natural resource production,fancial services, tansottion and agro-indusial activities-has now been cut drastically underthe tbilizio program. Meases have been taken to attract forelg and domestic privatecapital; the public sec revised role has been limited to the provision of public goods andservices. The public sector remains, however, active in the production and marketing ofbydrocarbons and electric power. Promotion of joint-ventures in these areas is one of theGovernment's current objectives.

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2.7 The energy ses contribution to ecnomic growth rens cosiderable despitea critical decline in oil production. With the development of naural Ps rerves, hydrocarbonscontinue to be the main source of hard crenc. In sum, the sector coatrbutes more than 50%of the national teasuz's income and it accounts for over 90% of reonal govemment income inhydrocarbon producing regions. Hydrocrbons currently mak up more than 60% of total eports,as compared to 24% in 1980.

2.8 Hydrocarbon represent Bolis predominant indigenous energy resource. Reservesare more gas than oil-prone. At present, about 60% of total liquids are produced from condensate.Development of hydrocarbon reserves bwn in the 1960's and output peaked in 1973 at 47,400barrels per day. The subsequent deeline in production (17,700 barres per day in 1986) has resultedfrom a combination of depleting reserves, lack of new invesment and insufficient exploration dueto limited interest on the part of international companies. Oil exports, which averaged 32,000barrels per day in 1973, have been reduced to spot sales of naphtha and gasoline. Still, urrentdomestic production of hydrocabons norully is sufficient to maintain an equilibrium with demand,as domestic energy consumption has stagnated in the recent economic presres.

2.9 Natural gas remains the key element in BoliWs balance of trade. In the aftermathof the decline in the price of tin on international markets, national export earnings were generatedprimarly from sales of natural gas to Argentina. It is not clear whether these exports wil continueonce the current contracts with Argentina expire in 1992. The outcome of current negotiationsto sel ga-generated electricity (500 MW) to Brazil thus has maeoeonomic importance. Theeconomy could face a major setback should Bolivia fail to find a market for its surplus gas.

Main Power btem and Distrbution

2.10 The bulk of BoiWs electric power is generated and trnsmitted through theinterconnected and isolated sems operated by the two major power utflities: ENDE, the nationalpower company, and the privately owned COBEE. ENDE operates the bulk of generation andtransmision facilities, whereas COBEE is the county's largest ditrbution company, principallyserving the urban area of La Paz and selling bulk power to Oruro. The two utilities areinterconnected at 115 kV. ENDE supplies power to COBEE to cover peak demand, and COBEEsupplies off-peak energy to ENDE.

2.11 The national interconnected system inludes four princpal load centers: theNorther system (La Paz), the Central system (Cochabamba and Oruro), the Southern system(Potosi and Sucre) and the Eastern sstem (Santa Cruz). The Eastern Vtem, which has thermal(gas) based generation, was just recently connected with the hydro.based, North-Central-Southinterconnected sytem. Total instlled generation pacity on the interconnected system was 605MW in 1988. Hydroelectric plants account for 50% of this apacity. COBEE holds just under one.fourth (23%) of total capacity (140 MW) but 46% of the national hydroelectric capacity.

.8.

2.12 Several Isolated systems-the laet of w£ich (Trinidad) Is run by ENDE.ae foundthrougbout the country pripalW sng smaller ua areas Tinidad, Tar4a, Cobia, etca).Ther ar lo umerous, independent stm (diel, mlco/minl.hydro) prd throughout ruraareas of the countiy witcapacitiesang from 20 kW to 1000 W. A number of these semsseve or have sered miigncommunties lthe Altplano and Valles. In thedeparment of SantaCrz, for ampoe, thee are over 90 small-scale rura dectric cooperatives running on diesel andseig isolated, rural loads.

2.13 D Along with COBEE, which primarily seves the city of La Paz, thereae nine main disibution entitles which supply power principall to urn areas, and, In someinstances, the Immediate outling rural regions. Table 2.2 lists the prinal distrbution entitiesalong with thei respecti sevce eas The table also indicates If the entity covrs ral arewas:

Tabte 2.2 MAIN DISTRIWTICN ENTITIES

Entity Urban Sevice Area Rural Covrage

CEA $ucre o Rural ExtenionDeE a La Pa No Rtural Extensin

CaEsanta C * Extesive RuralELFIEC Coheburba Litetod Rural ExtensionELEFEO Oruro lo Rural ExtensinchELREC y g Trinidd * Rural ExtensinCKLEA Cairi * Rurl Extensin

STR S Tarije * Rural ExtensionUPam Potosi o tral Extensin(fePAN) A / Cobija CLimitod Rural Extesion)

/ Rona development corporation In the depertmnt of the Pand.Th genertion sytem Is disl based.

b Denotes isolated sstes.I Posess grtion capacity of vwryin levels.

fgMs Nission assessment.

2.14 i general, rural de tion has received a low priority in recent energ planningnd ivement actvites in Blia. In addiion to thos urban-based entitiea servng rur areaslisted in Tabe 22, in small towns and rual areas numerous commu operate distributionconcession or Power for these sstems is either purchased from the national grid(as in the ca with the ral electric cooperatives in the Altiplano-CR[PAZ--and in theYun_a-CEY) or is generated by snall, isolted sms operated by a cooperative or a small.scale dirbution entity. Wble there is nominl super of rual electric e sn, in practiceruml ebnsin planning and development is the nbilit of the individual disrbtion entity.This lends to a general lack of pIoron, og ni and planning in the subsector.

a9.

2.15 W'ie the Cooperadon de Fomento Energetco Rural (COFER) is desigated bythe MEH! to provide organition for the rural electric subsetr, in practice there is little nationalor regional orgnizatio planning, techn or financia assistance provided. At the project specificlevel there is a general lack of analysis on the financial-economic or institutional viability ofcontemplated grid eteons (including deentralzed generation and distribution systems). In brieW4rural elecfcaton planning and eecution is geraly driven by regional or external donor fundingand lacks a coherent national, regional or sdte.speciflc anatical framework for planning andevaluation. As outined in Chapter I, it is at the sitespecif level that this ESMAP-assistedtecn analy is foced.

2.16 .urCoe For most households in runl areas, rural elecrfcation simply isnot available. Data in 1980 indicated that less than 10% of the rural population in Bolivia hadaccess to electricity. More recent data from the ME1H in 1989 indicates that appraoimately 25%of the rural population b, aMM to electricity. In areas where there is access to power, however,connection costs and low rural incomes and productivity are often deterrents to use.

2.17 For most rural areas the primary use of enerV is for household lighting and cooking.Rural inhabitants have traditionaLy consumed fuelwood, dried dung and other biomass to meetbasic energy requenments, while keroene and LPG are the commercial fuels which most frequentlydisplace biomass for the basic energy needs. The esdimated opportunity costs of rural electricitynasumeuniauelv. fo cooking andiiin however, have been estimated as being higher than

those of kerosene and LPG v based on the same end-use. While rural electrification can bedificut to justf finandally or economicaly when oriented on household lighting and cookig, theviability of expanding rural grid or enhancng decentralized, rural stems can be augmented ifproductive end-use loads can be strengthened and/or developed (coupled with rational tariffregimes). The identifcation and development of pWuctive end-uses also holds the potential forcomplementing rural development plnning and activities. This latter point is generally overlookedin mrral electrifcation planning.

gmnead Proec.t Area

2.18 l k _ The general area of this project specific analysi (IBRD Map22437) is aprxmately 100 kilometes northeast of the capital of La Paz in the Yunps region ofBolivia. The area is dacterized by mountaous terrain, deep valleys and generally poortansotation networks. The area, however, holds fertie valleys from which numerous crops(vegtables, fuit, coffee, etc.) are produced. Many of the crops are currently sipped to nationalmarkets, induding La Paz.

2.19 The Yunps region Is also a traditonal coca produng area. Due to the suitablemaes and soils which support the coca production, the area holds the potential for enhanced

V The kdtu cas of JiG and erosene for lumino hv bon estinated at 3S50 mis/1000 kea an 35he magalcosto of nal eletidty was estimated at betwe 1394 mIU/l000

. Al eostmewere calculated In June 1967 by the MH wih dstance fom fte World Bank and UNDP .aua diff ial may qha canged In the Ieve thrOe yas; however mve magne, it I safe to- that LPG and kerose stM reprt enomI locoo ala for combined cooking and ightng

in nw rurlre

*10-

agricWtural development and could supply an abundanc of alenative commodities. At prest,UNFDAC is focused princpaly on promoting alternatives to coca production in the zone,

2.20 Pr3ect Site, The specific project area for the rural lecfication componentIncorporates the Astunta vally. The contemplated rual dection would run from the town ofChulumani, northwest along the Rio Tamampaya and Rio Boopi reaching the small town of ColoniaSan Juan de Cotapata (see Plan Maps la,Ib, I and U). As contemplated by CEY, the mrralgridextension would be connected to the national gdd in the southwestemn portion of the project areain the town of Chulmani The adjoining area is principally served by the rural distrbutioncooperative CEY, which purchases power from COBEE through ENDEs lines.

2.21 Headqua in the small town of Corico, CEY was formed in the late 1970's andcwrently serve some 4,000 consumers. CEYs sevice area borders an the Awnta valley. Asenvisioned by the original Agroyungas project planners, CEY would be the entity responsible forextending service to the project area. In conducting the tudy, the instiutional capabilities-including technical and administrtive requirements-of CEY are considered. In brief CEYcharcterizes many of the instituional, technical and financial problems problems encountered bydistnrbution entities in Boliva confronted wift rural grid extension. (See Chapter VL InstitutionalAspects).

* 11-

m EL FRJ6:CIY DEMAND

3.1 This chapter outlnes the technical estimtes for resdential and productive endouseelectricity demand in the Asunta valley project zone. Through the field recon and analys,the projections developed are approximately 65% le than CEY's origial demand estimatespresented in scenario IL For the analysis, reidental demand consi primariy of domesticlightin& A defnition of productive end-uses of electricity Is: any use of electrty which increasthe end-users' economic status by fiailitating production level inreases, production cost savings,and/or increased product quality. From the point of view of a utiliy, productive end-use have theeffect of load building and generally, augmenting the off-peak load An example of a productiveend-use could be as simple as a single electric sewing machine in a house or as complicated aselectric motor-driven industria applications.

32 Demand is estimated in kW and consumption in kWh per month for the residentialand productive end-use categories Composite demand estimates are projected and consideredunder both "probable' and "opthnistie demand growth scenarios Combined with cost estimatesfor the four technical scenarios evaluated and presented in the engineering analysi in Chapter IV,the residential and productive end-use demand projections are factored in the financial-economicanalyses presented in Chapter V.

Calcuag Residential Demnd

3.3 In assesing residential demand the technical team counted those houses that couldbe electified within certain geographical and technical limits in the project zone. Since all of thevfllages with any significant population in the project area are on the western side of the riversBoopi and Tamampaya, and only isolated and widely dispered dwellings on the eastern side, onlythe western side of the valley is scheduled to be electrified (see Plan Maps). Throughout the fieldphase of the study no new evidence of enhanced load surfced to alter the basic boundaries of theproposed project zone.

3.4 The specific project area under study consists of 39 communities. To be includedin the project house count, the communities and households had to be within reasonable proximityto the contemplated primary distribution line. Structures that have been abandoned or isolated, ordispersed households distant from the cmmuni are left out of the project house countFurther, to be included in the projected connection count, households bad to be within a geographicdensity of at least 2 per 100 meters of potential secondaey line. Single, isolated houses distant fromthe community nucleus are excluded from the connection count.

a 12-

3.5 Based on the project house count and the gogphical ideratons, the analysiesimates the number of households in each community likel to connect In year 1. Table 3.1 showsthe project house and connection count as considered on a communlity-bycommunity basi Thesum of the projected initial connects (937) is about 56% of the project house count As outinedbelow, individual dharacteristics of the communites are considered and in_u"e projections forpopulation growth and, in turn, growth In new residential connecdons over thirty yeas

3.6 For projecting growth in new connections over 30 years, ach community isindividualy considered on the basis of the following d:

- Proximity to and condition of traportation routes;Natural resource base (mainly agricultural);

- Past and present economic actiity seen;- The presence of institutions with a commitment to the development of the

community and/or region.

The growth potential of the 39 individual communities is then graded on the following scale w:

= 8gh (5 to 10% per year);- Medium (0 to 5% per year);= slNeutral (0% per year);- Negative (-5 to 0% per year);- Very Negative (-10% to -5% per year).

in turn, the aggregate growth for new connections in the project area is calculated weighingestimated individual community growth. The aggregte rate of population wth and growth innew connections is calculated as 5.75% per year. While used as a general guide, this (high) rateis tempered by enhanced field assessment since other observed factors are considered to be ofsufficient importance. For example, a ceiling of 3,000 residential connections is placed on theentire valley-yielding an actual growth rate in new connections of 4%-since many of the towms,due to terrain characteristics, have limited physical room to expand beyond this imposed ceiling

3.7 Factors that influence the use of a rate in the medium growth range are epinedas follows:

Factors Favoring Medium Growth

- Asunta valley is a rich agrulural new setdement area where regional growth canbe ewected to be above the national average;

- The area is presently the focus of various national and international developmentefforts; andEmployment and income opportunities may serve to attract people to the projectarea.

W / In addiion to the technica consultnt team, u projet personel in the projct area provdd Input forasose th rOWth poteto the _d communti

* 13 -

Tablo 11 COIWJNITIES IN PROJECT AREAHOUSE COUNT AND EXPECTED CONNECTIONS

PROJECT HOUSES EXPECTEDCOStITY COUNT CONNECTIONS

(Yer 1)

Villa Remedios 60 23TaSjm 100 60Pastopata 75 55CoLopeapa (Nucleo Escolar) 6 0Arrozal 18 12Choquechaca 7 SVilla Barrientos 52 46Centro Tocoroni 20 9Concha Grands 20 9Concha Centro 20 9Totora Pampa 11 2Cruce de Nercedes 17 6Lag Nercedes 100 73Totora Chica 22 9Totora Grande 40 18La Calzada 100 73Santa Rosa 75 SSColopampa Grande 60 28Playa Ancha 12 0Yansmyso 75 3'Chamaca 60 32Charobamba 27 14Charoplaya 67 41Callisays 55 28Copalani 25 14Guayabsl 8 3Asunta 250 165Charia 40 18Pichari 30 9Los Olivos 10 5Cotapata 35 18Quinuni 60 4Santiago Tocoroni 35 9Santiago Chico 6 4Villa Santiago 17 9Santiago Siete Laws 11 SIncapucara 15 7San Juan 32 18Narquirivi S_

total 1,678 93?

Source: ission assessment.

* 14-

Factors Mitigating High Growth

- Annual population growti in Boli"ia is estimated at 2.6% per year;- hIe topography in the valley limits physical viag expansion;- The introduction of electricity and other improvements to quality of life have been

kmown to lower birth rates

EM=eded Rslecns

3.8 The projected residential connections in year 1 in each of the 39 communities in theproject area appear in Table 3.1. In sum, the techal team estimates that there will be 937household connections in year 1, growing to 3,000 In year 30. Using initial and year 30 totals, ayearly average growth rate in new connections of 4% is epected.

Average Residential Consumption

3.9 An initial residential average consumption of 15 kWh/month is projected on thebasis of field analysis in similar electrified zones In the Yungas, as well as comparative figures forother rural electrification projects. In addition, CEY reports an average consumption of 20kWh/month per new residential user in a rural community. A rural household, as observed by thetechnical team in electrified regions in the Yungas, typically use two 75 watt bulbs for approximately3 hours a day for domestic lighting. The result is a basic minimum demand of some 13.6kWh/month. The size of the bulbs and the time use may vary. Experience in rural areas in CentralAmerican countries (El Salvador, Guatemala), places initial consumption for a rural residencearound 17 kWh/month 11. The figure of 15 kWh/month, therefore, is projected as the initialmonthly consumption for a rural residence in the project zone dedicated prarily towardshousehold lighting.

3.10 Local experience and comparative figures from rural electrification projects (ElSalvador, Guatemala) are used in estimating average residential consumption for year 30. Thegeneral average for residential consumers of CEY is 36 kWh/month at the end of 10 years. Thisaverage however is influenced by users in relatively large vilages and is probably lower for ruralareas. On the other hand, given the potential in the project zone for economic growth, it isassumed that demand growth will be slightly higher in 30 years. Comparative figures from ruralelectrification projects in El Salvador and Guatemala, among others, show consumption of 40 kWh/month at the end of 15 years in rural areas I. For final consumption in the year 30 in the projectzone, the figure of 40 kWh/month is used for projecting residential consumption.

Wll NRECA/USAID: Centr Ameulcs Rual Blectrifcon Project,An Economic Review of Electicty in ProductiveUe Actvies In Rurl Gustmeala, 1989.

W Ibid.

3.11 For the study area, eistg (but not necessarly eectrified) as well as potentialproductive end-uses are identified. Ti Identfication was carried out via recoaissance in thespec cproject zone and in smilar electrified areas in the Yungas, as we as an appraial of theagro-ecological and mineral potential of the project area. Te proposed complementary activitiesof the Agyna integrated development project are also taken into account. In all, a total of 37existing and potential productive end-uses are identified and considered.

3.12 In identifying types of productive end-use acthidvos In and for the project zone, theacdvities are classified under dtee major categories: local, productive uses; productive usesdestined primarily for 'external markets, Le. outside the project zone; and productive usesassociated with 'transportation'. (Under the 'optimis growth scenario, an 'industrial/agro-industrial' category is also defined).

3.13 In addition to identifying tpes and quantifying the kWh/month consumptionchacteristics of the productive end-use activities (see Table 3.6), estimates are made regardingtheir expected rate of growth over the course of 30 yeas Different growth rates are consideredfor 'local', "extemal and 'tasportation' oriented productive end-uses.

3.14 The projected number of productive end-uses for year 1 and potential growth inthese activities are considered on the general basis of the following fators:

- Availability of a reliable electricity supply in the project zone;

= N4auNral resources in the project zone;

i Existing or potential demand for the product or senrices; and

= Observed experiences and activities in the project area and in similar electrifiedzones in the Yunas.

The composite result is a projection in the type, number and growth rate for productive end-useactivities that might be expected in the zone in year 1 through year 30. he composite results arepresented in Table 3.7. The type, number and epected growth rate for productive end-uses iscalculated and presented under the 'probable' and 'optimi growth scenarios.

* 16 -

Productive EindUe

LocaL External and Tran t Related Productive End-Uses

3.15 "Locall productive end-use activities identified are listed in Table 3.2. and areclassified as current exsting in the project area but not necessariy electrified and ggMi=identified from simflar electrified zones and/or suggested by agro-ecological conditions in theproject area. Tle categorization of "new" and "existing" is utilized in the financial-economicanalysis for quantifying and calculating economic benefits. (See Annex 9 for a detailed explanationof the method used for the calculation of economic benefits for residential and productive end-uses):

Table 3.2: LOCAL PRODUCTIVE END-USES IN PROJECT ZONE

Existing New

- store (smatl) - Ielding shop (small)- Tailor shop - Radio station- Nayachaita / - Ceent product factory- General Store (lare) - Ice cream parlor- Video showroom - Animal fed (mill and mixer)- Carpenter shop (small) - Dairy processing plant

- Health clinic - Hair dresser shopSmall office - Brick factory

- Grain mill - Electronic repair shop* Poultry farm- telding shop (large)e Movie theater- Carpenter shop (larg)- Butcher shop

ay Mayachasita is a small agro-industrial pilot or demnstration area where n crops andlivestock are raised and adapted. They are profit-oriented, comiunity-run associations Whichwere started and promoted by the Agroyungps project.

source: Mission assessment.

3.16 Locl Productive End-Uses and Trobable" Growth. To develop the probable growthscenario for "local" productive end-uses, it is assumed that their growth rates can be related to theexpected population and aggregate growth in new residential connections. The aggregate populationgrowth rate of 5.75% (discussed above) is therefore a general guide for projecting the growth inactivities in this category. Strict application of this projection is tempered, however, by thefollowing factors:

(a) Certain activities are relatively new or do not currently east in the project area andit cannot be assumed that they would come on line and grow as soon as the projectzone is electrified; and

.17 -

(b) The characteristics of individual communites, including population, current socialand economic activities, and distances from the main road, can alter the probabilitythat a certain productive end-use will appear.

3.17 Projecting a number and growth rate therefore for a productive end-use activity isfundamentally based upon assessment of the individual communities, including expected growth,perceived on-going productive activities, and activities seen in similar electrified zones in theYungas. Based upon the individual community assessment, numbers are projected for each of thelocal use" activities. Table 3.7 shows the projected number for all productive end-use activitiesfor the project zone in year 1 and their expected growth. The data in Table 3.7 shows that the'local" productive end-use activities of small and large stores, combined, constitute 47% of the totalprojected end-uses under the 'probable" growth scenario. The average growth projected for theseactivities over 30 years is 2.8% and 2.9% respectively.

3.18 Extemal Sales End-Uses and "Probable Growth". The second productive usecategory, "external" sales, are those productive activities whose number and growth can be relatedto the natural resource base in the community or the zone and whose sales depend mainy onmarkets outside the region. In the case of the project area, productive end-uses in this categoryare usuaUly those associated with agricultural activities.

3.19 "External" productive end-use activities for the project zone are listed in Table 3.3and are also classified as curenty eing in the roject area but not necessariy electrified andthose new uses identified from similar electrified zones and/or suggested by agro-ecologicalconditions of the zone.

tasle 3.3: PROUCTIVE END-USES FOR EXTERNAL SALES

Existing New

- Coffee pulper - Coffee .f1l- Mine (mde.u-sfzed) - Nine (large)

- Stall camfing plant(fruits. juices, preserves)

Source: Nission assessment.

3.20 According to Agroyungas data and information, coffee and fruits hold the brightestprospect for alternative crop development in the project zone. In the case of coffee, it is beingpromoted as the main substitute for coca. Using Agroyungas project figures the technical teamestimates that Agroyungas efforts have brought about an increase of 10% per year in the numberof hectares of coffee planted in the last two year Although coffee is affected worldwide by pricefluctuations, it is assumed that groups interested in substituting coffee for coca in the project areawill continue to promote its introduction and development in the near future, Le five years It isless probable that they will continue to do so on a ten year term, but the efforts of the next fiveyears should continue to have their effects throughout that period.

* 18 -

321 A weighted growth rate of 6.8% is therefore considered as a general guide forgrowth projections of productive end-use activities related to coffee (pulping and milling). Thisassumes that coffee production will increase at a 10% rat during the neo five years, at 7.5% thefollowing five years and at 5.75% per year the remang 20 year The strict application of thisgrowth rate for these activities is tempered, however, by the factors used for projections for 'local'productive end-uses. Based upon individual community assments and the natural resources inthe zone, the projected number and the growth over 30 years for extrmal' productive end-uses areshown in Table 3.7. The average annual projected growth over 30 years for coffee pulpers (as wellas medium sized mines) is 4%. Table 3.7 also shows that in the Oexternalt category, coffee pulpersconstitute approximately 30% of the total productive end-uses under the 'probable growth scenario.

3.22 The growth scenario for productive end-use activities related to fruit, ie. smallcanning plant, is taken to be similar to that of coffee. An additional restrat to growth for thisactivity is transportation. Transportation of packaging materiaLs from La Paz and the subsequentshipment of products to La Paz markets would be affected by access to and the conditions of roads.(The current travel time from the project zone to La Paz is approximate 7-8 hours in goodweather conditions). For 'probable' growth projections, the growth rate utilized for coffee-relatedactivities can be a guide for growth projections for productive end-use related to the production offruits, juices and preserves, i.e. 6.8%. This general growth factor is also considered for miningactivities (medium scale). Based upon field and individual community as ents, however, therate is tempered downward, eg. for coffee pulpers and medium sized mines, the growth rates over30 years are approximately 5% and 4%, respectively. The projected number and growth for the'external' productive end-use activities are shown in Table 3.7.

3.23 Trnpratn Prducdve ETndUses and 'bable Growth! 'Me third categoryOf productive end-use activities are those related to the flow of vehicles and transportation in theproject zone. The growth in these activities is a function of the amount of vehicle and passengertraffic through the project area. The transportation-related uses identified are listed in Table 3.4.These productive end-use activities are also classified as currentl existing but not necessarilyIctrifed or Me.

ibnl 3.4: PRODUCTIVE END-USES FOR TRANSPORTATION

Existing NW

wedlue size hotel G Gasoline stationTire repair shop

urme: Nission assesment.

3.24 Based on field observations, the growth of cargo and people movement is assumedto be directly related to local productive end-use activities, as well as general economic activitiesdestined for sales outside the zone. Thus, a general growth rate for productive end-uses relatedto transportation could be placed between the general growth rates for internal and externalproductive end-uses activities, Le. between 5.75% and 6.8%. For this resson, a rate of 6% isselected as a guide for growth projections for productive end-uses related to transportation.Although this rate serves as a guide, the same considerations noted for 'local' and 'external'

*19-

productive end-uses are applied. The strict appliation of this partiular growth rate is thereforemodified by field and community asessment Actual projections for the number and growth ofthese activities are shown in Table 3.7. As observed ini Table 3.7, the calculated average growth ratefor the tee activities is 5.6%.

3.25 I The composite data in Table 3.7 reveals that under theprobable' growtb senario, the aggregate average growth rato for all productive end-use activitiesover 30 years is app tely 4% (202 . Year 1, 672 - Year 30). Under the 'optimistice growthscenario, the rate is approximately 5% (253 - Year 1, 1,136. Year 30).

Productive End-Uses and the pm Scenario.

3.26 There are three factors which allow for the development of an "optimist' growthscenario for productie end-uses i the project zone. First, the possibility that international donorsand/or the government agencies continue to support the development of crops seen as alternativesto coca over the long term. Second, the possibili that private sector becomes interested ininvesting in industrial/agro-industrial development in the project area-given the natural resourcebase. And third, the existence of gold mines in the Asunta valley area and the posility that theireanded development within the project area will influence (increase) the use of electicity. Theaptmisti scenario is therefore based upon higher growth rates and allows for the creation of anew category of productive end-use activities, Le 'Industrial/agro-industrial.

327 An inspection of the agrcultural and agro-ecologic dcracteritics of the project zoneand the area surrounding Asunta allows for several industl and agro-industial developmentpossibilities under the "optimistic' or hi growth scenario. w Based on field observations, it isblieved that the industies and agro-industries listed in Table 3.5, among others, are possible inthe Asunta Valley

Tlabte 3S: POTENTIAL IDURIES ';iO AO-INDISTRIES

- Tuber ST Attl (tLarge scate)- Indsrtriltizatfon of Coa* Processing Essential Oils - citronella

(CCdbopoW nsrda), tsuasr (CWboponcitratus), ad vetiver (Vertivertsziazloides)

- Rice Prodction awd Hlltin (large scale)- Growing and Processing of CasheA Nuts- Fruit Procesng (large scale)

SKM Hft"fon assessmet.

IV Naturd mour chwaa o of the zone (a noted by the tec team) fing nusr and agro-ndtldevlopmtare as followE An altude of aoaty600- m eterssil appit forpennal oraIfa 9-10 months u of the yea ih a total of betw 726 and 1,176 mm (1962); ava e wtemte of241 C (1987); tmber yieldn fores includin mahogan (s_knte macrtphylla), wanu oungn Cedar(ea)d lawrbd (necauda) and bas wood (hillotere biruts); and low demagaphic denty.

a20 -

3.28 The potential sizes of these agroindustries ar estiabted in tms of their kWhconsumpdion per month For projecting their estabishment and grwth, the following factors aretaken into account-

Natural resource base for the potential industry/agro.industrr,

Planting period and time frame for Industry development; and

- Ipical Sizem

329 In/Aj induar iaLimA.r Asming that the development of alternativesto coca leaf production wil be promoted over a longer term, a growth in productive end-useacities sila to that obtained by the Agroyunps project with coffee is projected under the"optinistice scenario. Agroyungas considers coffee to be the crop that drives alternativedevelopment of the zone. Based on Agropungas experience with coffee and team calcuations, thegrowth rate of 10% for al types of productive end-use activities is used as a guideline forprojections of the "optimise scenario over the next 30 years. As in the case of "probable demandrowth, however, this figure is used as a general reference for growth projections. (The annualaverag growth used for all productive end-use activities under the "op tic" scenario isapprimately 5%).

330 The establishment of the activities listed in Table 3.5 is considered possible underthe "optimist scenario. (There are two exceptions: In the case of the sawmi and fruit processingplant one of each is projected-based upon Agroyungas investment plans-under the "probable"growth scenaDio and factored in the financial/economic analsis). Only in the case of the fruitprocessing agro-industry and sawmill is more than one of the activities envisaged in the "optimisticescenario. For the other activities, only one productive unit is estimated and the projection consistsof esdititng the most probable year for operation to begin. For eample, the cashew plant isestimated for the year 11 under the "optimistie scenario taing into account the fac that, althoughthe potential exists, the crop is relatively unknown in the zone. Based upon agriculturalinformation, it would take at least five years to develop the plantations and another five years toplan and implement a processing plant.

IdentiSd and PloWeta Productive End-Uses

Projections for Prdcive End-UAes

3.31 The composite list of identified and potential productive end-uses for the projectzone, their etimated kWh/month consumption and the estimated economic benefit is presentedin Table 3.6.

3.32 Complementing Table 3.6, Table 3.7 presents projections for the number and grothof productive end-wUes that would be eectrified in the project zone. Based upon the datapresented, the aBegate peroentage growth projected for the productive end-use actvities over 30years is 4% under the "probable" scenario, and 5% under the "optimisti

.21t

XiL.As Pt IAL PW=XTIVE ENDUConaui*tfon Chharateristics and Economie 5efit g/

consumption Bmetal¢Profictive use kIA/mont uP/insth

Esential ofil Plant SI 3.000 5.72Cahw Plant / 3,200 141.38Rice Agro-industry */ 6,400 27.94Coca Agr-friAntry a/ 1600 72.10Fruit Aro-indsttry W 6000 349.2Animal Feed (mil and mixer) I 513 25.03Cement Product Factory SV 8,300 362.21smll IV 8,300 362.21

Coffee fitlt S/ 5,000 219.32Grain Kitt W 175 20.6Sutcher's Shop / 240 13.21Carpentry (large) SI 200 11.48Crpentry (smell) / 100 24.94Movie Theater a/ 85 6.50Video Showoom hI 20 47.98Smatl Caming Plant SI 100 7.15Coffee Pulper W 6 24.25Poultry Farm S 171 10.22sce Crem Parlor I 700 33.13Nealth Clinic 4t 700 212.35Mediu size Notel kI 650 ?6.27Brick Factory SI 20 33.30Tire Repair shop Al 145 9.10"ayachasita W 400 136.40Nine (terse) Al 6,080 266.08Nine (mdifu sief) M 1,S2S 43.86ball Office W sO 90.43Hafr Dresser Shop I 32 3.97Dairy Processing Plant jS 60 5.42Riado Station SI 4,000 176.02Tailor Shop W 45 16.95da Station SI 153 9.44Electronic Repa r Shop At 33 4.03Weldin Sheop (larsg) S/ 1,300 59.11Welding Shop (smtll) AS 60 30.96Large Store S 180 30.00Sbll store 72 15.59Public Llghting 700 33.33

SI Dnrates new activity.An existing but not necesarily electrified activity.

£ Thoch usg Itll ftuctuate throghcut the year for am productiwv us,fgures presented reflect anul conwptfon dividd over 12 mont. (Semx 9 for daesriptfon of the mthodology used for calculating eomdic

benefit.)

§IM: Niseson asesement.

. 22 -

TbL2 1.7s POJICTI WmER OF PRlTIV END-USE ACTIVITIESProble and Optimistic Growth Estimats V/

Probable optimisticPt0DUCTIVE USE / VWI 1VW 30 VEI YEAR 30

A EssentialL Ot Plant W 0 0 0 1A CabwPlant M 0 0 0 1A RIcO Agro-iindtryg/ 0 0 0 1ACoco AAro-industry & 0 0 0 1A Frut Agro-indstry5/ 0 1 0 2L Animo Fed (mill, mix) M 0 2 0 0LCemnt Products factory i 0 0 0 1A SaUillt 0 1 0 2ECoffee Nill 0 1 0 2LGrain Mitlt W 0 10 0 16LButcher's Shop 0 7 0 12LCarpentry (targ) Al 1 3 1 5L Carpentry (emtII) bW 6 28 6 49L Novie theater / I 1 1 2L Video Showroom W 2 12 2 25E Sall Cnning Plant / 0 3 0 5ICoffee Pulper I I S0 196 100 333LPoultry Famr I 0 3 0 5Ltce Crea Parlor 5 1 a 1 12LHeatth Cltnic W 2 3 2 5T Ndiub Size Hotel hi 2 12 2 21L:Brck Factory a/ 0 1 0 2T TTie Repir Shop I 2 11 2 19LNsyachasit W 1 6 1 10E Nine( trge) A/ 0 1 0 2E inr (mdiuu size) 2 6 2 10LStlt Offtee . 7 20 7 35LHeir Oressr8hop I 3 10 3 17LDairy Procesaing Ptant St 1 3 1 5LfRadio Station i 0 1 0 2L Taltor's Shop W 10 29 10 50T anStation / 1 3 1 5L Electronic Repir Shop / 2 12 2 21L Welding Shop (tarse) / 0 2 1 4L Welding Shop (atll)p/ 3 20 3 30L Large Store y 10 24 10 42L alsl Store ill U la _ 34

Sub-Total 192 642 243 1.106

(PtbIic Lighting Units) Jd 10 30 10 30

TOTAL 202 6n 253 1,136

5/ Dontes a new activity.y An existing but not ncesserily electrffled activity.

Y Takes into account the prootion of pulp removers by the AgroYtogas progrm.di Public lightino units are calculated as approxKitely 1 light per 100 residential conwer

and use 7 MA/month. This Is assi as a productive ed-us In the finanisal-ecomicmodel and factored in the dmd estimtes.

St Category of proActive and-use activitysLuLocal, ElExtenal, TuTransport related, A"Pro-indstry.

V Applicable to all scenarios apt la.

sre: Nfission asses_mnt.

-23 -

Tota Nubet n Cmmr and PEimate Demand

3.33 From the data in Tables 3.1t 3.6 and 3.7, the total estimated number of residentialand productive end-use consumers is presented in Table 3.8 under the 'probable" and 'optimisticegrowth scenarios.

tle 3.8: ESTINATED LMmE OF CONSIDRS

PraLs optimistic

YEARI YER 30 VEM i Y 1 30

ResidentialconsiAmc 93? 3.000 937 3,000

ProductiveUse CoIu4mrs(including publictighting units) 202 672 2S3 1,136

Total Cnawmrs 1,139 3,6X2 1,190 4,136

s Nisslon assesamnt.

3.34 Based upon the estimted consumption in kWh per month for residential users andproductive end-users (Table 3.6), demand estimates in kW are summarized in Table 3.9 underprobable and optimstic growth scenarios.

Tabl .9j: DEMAN ESTIMATE (KEW if

Probable optimisticYear I YeGr 30 TYar I Year 30

D-mad in kW 196 947 243 1,313

I/ Dewtlopnt of cerposite W demad fI igs are explained in Chapter IVand are based on dand tables adapted to Bolivia.

Sorce: i"sion assessnt.

-24-

IV. LEASTCOST ENGINEERING ANALYSIS

4.1 A pelaiynay engineering anlysi of the original CEY study for grid extension intothe Asunta valey is presented here, as well as a prelimlnay engineering assessment for thealternative scenarios. To complete these analses, technical and engineering data was ascertaineddirectly from CEY, as weJl as from COBEE, ENDE and the Empresa de Lu Y Fuerza ElectricaCochabamba SAMK (ELFEC). The enineering prefeasibility analysis required the presentationof tehnical desg chnes and recommendations that would result in lower cost, while enurgsystem integrity and relability. Based upon the review of the CEY study, three alternative technicalscenarios are presented.

42 The main activities pertaining to the engineering assessment were therefore definedas follows:

Review prdiminazy distibution des developed by CEY in view of the need toreduce distrution costs and enhance the financial-economic and institutionalviabiity of the proposd grid ension, recommending changes that might contributeto these objctives, eg. types of lines, changes of route, equipment and potentialconnections to other load centers which might enhance project viability, and

Review/revise proposed technical parmneters of grid extension based upon demandmodifications developed by the technial team working on demand.

43 Given the relatively imited electricity demand in the project area (see Chapter mTable 3.9) as amessed by the technical team, coupled with natual resource potentiai options fordecentralized generation (small-scale hydropower) with isolated distnbution systems were discussedand preented during the in-country tedhnical misson. Technical scenarios and financial/economicanalyses for these options are not developed given lower cost estimates for grid interconnection andthe priority of the project Directorate in anuahm&& gaW coverago in the project area. w

WI SoWVevesioed theconstuoofa 12MW dpantnhprw arsw hpm dsbuton1e ay ded tU th zoe e ay oost e s for the scenaio are 1US$42 milio,

not the tutial delopmt ed for t opeato and adminitao of aqsem Sceado V. called for theo m of a mi p (300 kW in one key

ded ofaea (mf toaly pt a re a coet estimates are USS 604,000,aot VW yddIt dietopmt e d that t be no fther prefuea

dwdq_ f hee sema_;o Scaro° IV. was olmntd on the basis of csa and scnro V. on the basi of

a 25 -

ko and A mMn LMethod

4.4 Specific actvities for the engineering anals, luded both electical and mechanical(strength) igations, as wel as histoic cost Inmatio s data prvides a basis for thetechnical and cost projections for the technical scenarlos Data and Information gthering activitiesrgrdin costs, consumer power usag, projections of usage in both urban and mral areas ofBolivia, as well as Information regardin avaiability of wood and concrete poles, were carried outduring the tedcnical assistance mission and continued dateards by national consultants Inaddition to the report of CEY, a brid report by ENDE (December 1983) for the specific areaunder study, as wel as reports for electric gid exension Inother pans of Bolvwere reviewed.

4.5 Load and population infomation was dbssed and coordaed with the techicaldemand ment team and agreements reached on population, prospective loads and projectedinitial and long-range loads in the project zone.

4.6 Analysis of the prumiay desig prepared by CEY (scenario Ia) was carried outbased upon original CEY load estimated_ Te approach utilie an economic conductor size/costanalysis program called ECONCON IV and includes calulating voltage drops for the thirty yearprojected load. The procedure is used to analyze CEY's preliminary design, as well as the threealternative scenarios developed by the technical team.

4.7 For the orgn plan prepared by CEY and for the alternative soenarios, costs asweli as technical features such as load carying capacity and satisfactory voltage drop performanceunder projected peak load conditions are anazed. Cos estimates are based on informationcontained in reviewed reports, as well as on dicussions and data obtaied from local electricsWppliers. Volage drop calculations are based on methods adopted by the Rural ElectrificationAdministraon (REA) of the United States Department of Agiuture (USDA).

4.8 Additonal All alternative technical scearios developed are based uponthe wprobable" demand gowth projecdons presented in Chapter m. ITe alternative technicalsoenarios are desigled, however, to accommodate up to 25% additional demand, e.g the alternativescenarios epectIng 947 kW total demand can acoommodate a 1,200 kW system demand. In theevent of the oaptimistic' demand growth, ie. the emergence of major industrial or agro-industrialcomer(s) in the project zone, line additions and/or system modifications would be requred.

Ag" and lkevelg-me of Technical S=oenro

4.9 Ihe engineeing Inretion commenced with an examination of the pre_iminayreport prepaxed by CEY for lectrtion of the project area. Tech information, commentsregrding load estimates, voltage conditions and cost for this approach are presented in scenario

W ECONCON is compor model for coadut size and coszo It wa deloped by Stal1 Muscoadn Iowa and udlizod 1he anasls

-26-

Ia. Alterative scenario Ib maintains the same premnay line desig as presented as CEY,but uses the revised projection of load and demand developed by tie technical team.

4.10 As noted in Chapter II the revised demand s approximatel 65% less than thatprojected in the CEY report. The revised demand estimates calculate eisting and futurepopulation within the sudy area and develop projectin for connections, power usage and demandover a thirty year period. CRY demand projections are utilized to allow comparative analysis withthe alternative scenarios presented. The tenical tes demand projections-summaried in Table4.1 (see Annex 1)-remain constant for al alternative scenarios studied. Tho resed projections,under the 'probable" demand growth are summarized and compared with the original C1Yprojections in Table 4.1:

IMLE 4.1: E#W AND CEY DEMAND PROJECTIONS

TECHNICAL TEAN CEY REPORT

ar Om

NuIer of CarmunraReoldmntt Use 937 2,000Prodat1vo Use ag UK

1,139 2,404sh atesAinnth

tesdmntlat 14,000 56,000Prodtivo Us 113.S00

42,500 169.500

kWflRes1dentlet 97 225Productive Use jga H

197 619

Year Thfr

Mud3er of ConrarsRksdsntiat 3.000 6,050Productive Use

3,672 7,394

kWdh 8tls/lbnthsfdsntdal 120,000 454,000

Prodictive Use 136.500 IJL256,500 ff6,000

kW MJmdRes1dantlet 546 15,10Productive Use 6 00

946 2,886

MMga: CRY report mid mison as mesnt.

a 27 e

Liaw Flws and Volage DroM

4.11 To help determine load flows and voltage drop In various secdons of the systemsstudied, demand tables have been developed for the various load conditions expected to beencountered during the life of the line (see Annex 1). Demand for Initial and thirty year designconditions for both the CEY and the technicl team demand is developed using methods in theUSDA-REA Bulletin 45.2b "Demand Tables. PoFmulas used In this method are based on historicinformation first gathered from residential areas in the United States. The formulas account fordiversity among consumers and differences mn kWh usage for various groups of consumers

4.12 lhe orgal U.S. data is modfied by adjustment of the presumed load fator torepresent loads expected in the Asunta project area. The applied ajustment actor was obtainedby analysi of historical load factor values in Bolia. The demand table uxs in this study showmonthly kWh usage, actual load factor (in addition to the REA US. presumed Load Factor), andthe calculated demand for consumer counts ranging from 1 to 10,000.

4.13 Voltage, Dro. Voltage drop calculations were made for each of the technicalscenarios by applying the maximum thirty year load to the system desig. The method and valuesused for voltage drop calculations are prepared so that neither of the alternative arrangements arefavored. Voltage drop calculations are based USDA-REA Bulletin 45-1, "Guide for Making VoltageDrop Calculations'. Individual consumers were assigned to line sections according to the technicalhouse count. Voltage drops for the system design project the existing consumer count and locationson a direct ratio basis to the thirty year design level Productie end-use loads are also located onthe basis of direct ratio to existing house counts. All loads on single-phase and dtee-phase linesare assumed to be balanced in accordance with good operating practices.

4.14 The generally accepted guideline for rural primary distrbution line voltage drop of8 volts on a 120 volt base, ie. 6.66%, is used to determine the ability of a given conductor toprovide acceptable voltage to connected loads. When coupled with the use of voltage regulatorsat the source end of a line, a voltage drop of less than 5% of nominal primary line voltage isattainable. This is within the range of acceptable voltage in accordance with guidelines contaiedin the American National Standard Publication ANSI C84.1-1982, Table 1: 'Standard NominalSystem Voltages and Voltage Ranges'. Voltage variations established in this standard are presentedin Table 42:

Table 4.2:STDSARD VOLTAGE ANGES

MM A (X2 Rm B MXNominal System Voltaep inx n Nx Nin

240/120 volts 105 95 105.8 92.7480 volts 105 95 105.8 92.713.2Y/7.62 kvolts 105 97.5 105.8 94.724.9Y/1i4.4 kvoltt 105 9T.5 105.8 94.934.SY/19.92 kyoltt 105 9T.5 105.8 95.0

g=: Amrican NationaL Standrd Publication ANSI C84.1-1982,Table It 'Standard Nminal Sptem Voltae oltaw Ra'

*28

4.15 Range A values, as shown In Table 42, are used for normal operation of electicalstems whie Range B values are accepted as maxdmum or minimum term voltag values expectedto exist during periods of peak loading or during other specal short time oonditions. The valuesin the standard represent maximum and minimum oonditions for whih equipment and othersystem components are designed for satsfactozy continuous operation without derating.

4.16 Madmum voltage drops and locations are shown on the maps for the vaioustechnical scenarios (see Plan Maps: Agroyungas Estudio Prelnr Alternaivo Ia, Ib, AL I).Maximum voltage drops and locations for each of the four scenarios are listed in Table 43 forreference:

Iabtle : YEAR THIRTY NASINL WLTAGE NW(ONd 120 VOLT BASE) AND X VOLT DROP

cmrative Voltt progLocation ̂/ Volt Drop % Volt Drop w

Scenarfo to F 16.2 13.5Altermative lb F 5.3 4.4Altermtive 11 F 8.9 7.4Alternative III Do 6.9 5.7

a Reference location on attached Plan Naps.b Excluding voltage regulator improvements.

Surce: Nission assessment.

4.17 Unit costs are developed for each of the line types and conditions used in theoutlined technical scenarios. Unit cost are summarizd in Table 4.4 below. (Additional detailsregarding their development are included in Annex 2):

. 29-o

tlM 4.4s UlNITIZED COST ESTIAMA

Principal lines g/Thrme-phse, #2/0 ACS conductor 8,000/k.Three-pse, #1/0 ACSR conAictor 7,000/I.Threphse, 94 AcS canditor 5,000/ksingle-phase, #4 ACtS coActor 3,000/k

Tnps awd brnch circuitsSinge-phase 04 ACSR cowctor 3,000/b

Secondary lines, single-pbse or 3,100/1kthree-phase; aerwo cost

Neters wnd service drops 41.50 easchTronsformers 60/kh.Nydroelectric plant, installed 2.000/lUEniolneering and Adainistration 15S

(% of estimated construction cost)Continfencies 10O

tX of estimted construction cost)

&I Costs are fteld-based and cooperable to tosts ineurred by otherBolivian utilities at the tim of study.

Soure: Nission assessment.

4.18 Once the unitized costs, initial and projected loads, and voltage drop cal tion arestandardize, they are applied equaly to the various scenarios. The following disussion of thetechnical scenarios includes reference to standardize loads, csts and voltage drops listed in thepreviously cited Annex 1, 2, as well as Annex 3 (Voltage Drop Sheets).

4.19 Four technical Plan Maps for each scenaio are included for reference. Eachsenario to be dised has its plan which includes projections for number of consumers, electricdemand, distances involved, types and sizes of proposed lines and associated voltage drops. Thefour technical scenarios have been identified as follows:

Scenario Ia - Preliminary Study/Design of CEY24.9 kV line with source at Chulumani

Scenario lb - Preliminaiy Study/Design of CEY with (ESMAP) Technical TeamLoad Projections24.9 kV line with source at Chulumani

Scenario II - (ESMAP) Technical Team Load Projecdons and Alternative Desig24.9 kV line with source at Chulumani

Scenario III (ESMAP) Tecal Team Load Projections and Alternative Design- 24.9 kV line wth source at Chulumani and 300 kW

hydroelectric plant near La Asunta.

- 30 -

Scenlario ILr- Preliminah*StdyDeig of MRY

4.20 The prdemay study of CEY estimates 6,050 consumers in year tWrty and that theprojected residential demand will reach 1,500 kW. The study proposes that a threephase line,totalling 118 mns in length and constructed with #2/0 ACSR conductor, wil be adequate to supplythe residential loads plus an unspecfied amount of commercial load. A preiminaty cost estimateof US$ 1,293,255 is presented 'he cost, however, does not include single-phase tap lines,secondary lines, meters nor sevice drops required to distribute the electricity to proposed individualusers.

4.21 In order to make a comparative study with the alternative scenarios, single-phasetap lines, secondary lines, and meters and service drops are added to the CEY totals. A total of132 kms of 24.9 kv three-phase and 14A kv single-phas primay distbution lines are estimatedto be necessary in each of the scenarios. Quantities of secondary lines, meters and service dropsvary among the four scenarios. Required quantides of these items are directly proportional to thenumber of consumers and total kW demand projected for each of the scenarios.

4.22 The technical team assumes that the CEYprojection of 6,050 residentIal connections,corresponding to a given demand of 1,500 kW, are for year 30. Using criteria similar to that usedin studying the alternative scenarios, it is estimated by the team that 2,000 residential consumerswith a demand of 225 kW would correspond to year one projections of CEY.

4.23 The CEY load and demand projections do not include specific numbers and valuesfor productve end-uses or commercial or other categories of users. The CRY report states thatthe proposed line would be capable of supplying 2,500 to 3,000 kVA to the area of La Asunta andthat the difference between the residential demand of 1,500 kW and the capacity of the line, orbetween 1,000 and 1,500 kva, would be available to serve other load.

4.24 In order to make projections of non-residential uses of electricity for the CEYreport, it is necessary to project the number of productive end-use consumers and their demands.This is done on a straight percentage basis as compared to projected productive end-uses in thealternative scenarios. Technical team estimates, applied to the CEY study (see Annex 1), are for404 productive end-use consumers in year 1 with a demand of 394 kW and for 1,344 productiveend-use consumers in year 30. This would contribute a demand of 1,376 kW to the system in year30.

4.25 The total of the residential and productive end-use demands prepared in this mannerresults in a total estimated demand of 2,886 kW. This is essentialy equal to the total demandreferred to by CEY as a design load (2,500 to 3,000 kva).

4.26 Analysis of the CEY report shows that no study of voltage conditions has been madeto determine adequacy of the design conductor size to provide satiactory service to its forecastedload. An investigation by the technical team of voltage conditions associated with the thirty yearprojected load and conductor design presented by CEY shows an excessive voltage loss of 16.2 voltson a 120 volt base (13.5 %). As stated previously, a voltage drop of approxInately 8 volts on a 120volt base (6.7%) is a generaly accepted value for primary lines on rural distribution systems (seeAnnex 3). The calladon shows that the large load projected by CEY cannot be adequately served

- 31 e

over the proposed #2/0 ACSR liaue. Voltage drops and loads are shown on the PlanMap Ia.

4.27 The information presented on Pln Map Ia provides data correspo ding to both thefirst year and thirtieth year of projected operation. The rectanguar box cosest to locadon 'AW atthe lower left comer of the map states the number of rskientia consumes and thek demands,as well as the number of productive use consums and their demands The total number ofconsumers and the total demand in kW Is also listed. A smail box with leader aurw betweenlocations 'Al and ' shows the type of line to be 3.phas, the conductor size '#2/0 ACSR', andthe distane or line lenth 26 km' between the two points A dd box tied Volt Drop B showsthe total volts drop at Point 'B' in year thirty and the total distance of Point 'B' from the startingPoint 'A". Each major segment of line is snilarly identified and technical information listingconsumers, demands, line type, conductor and distanoe are provided.

4.28 A brief summary showing loads and voltage drops along the main line for projectedyear 30 design load is shomn in Table 4.5:

able 4.S: SCENARIO a - VOLT DROP

No. of Carers kV Demwd km. to Volt dropLocation beyod point total sourc at polnt

A 7.394 2,886 0 05 S769 2.262 26 8.1C 3,905 1,451 42 11.9A/0 1.713 676 63 14.9 WE 399 168 75 15.9 WF 0 0 91 16.2 A

W Calcutated voltae. drops at locatian C, 0, E1 nd F all eceed thegenerally accepted value of 8 volts drop by swstantial mrginf.

Source: issifon assesmnt.

429 As noted, revised demand estimates do not concurwith the high consumer count andload projections presented by CEY. The line design utizing three-phase #2/0 ACSR conductors,inadequate for such high loads, would be entirely adequate if the projected load is less. (Scenariolb examines the CEY line design with the reduced load projections).

4.30 Inclusion of single-phase tap lines, secondary lines, meters and seices neces-samy to serve 6,050 residential consumers and 1,344 productive use consmers results in a totalesimated project cost for scenario Ia of US$2,506,250. w The original estiate presented in the

In the egneerwianalys for scenrio soand alernse senarios Ib 1 and lL the q y of resdenIl motsand sve drops is amed to equal the number of redeta osmer Th qutity of prodve enduseconetiona s am med to equd 33.3% of all prducve end.use consumems It is asmed tt.7% of producGveuse consumer are small, *# coffee pulper., and wM utie mtes and syvice drops uder tho household

conn .Eng r costs re calculat acording. For tr of servi meters In thefnancial/economic anals, see Chapter V, Footnote 17.

. 320

CEY report, which omitted singe-phs tap li secondaries, meters and srvice drops isUSSI,293,2SS. Uni cos presented in Table 4.4 and Annex 3 ar used to develop the cost summa-ty presaeted In Table 4.6:

Me A&..s .anAo to- cm$

Primry kineThree-Phase O A*, 115 km 4,000Sngtle-Phs taP, 0, 14 kn 48,000

teco tlirm, 130 ms 403.000

Netars,serlAcs, 6,498 connections 269,700

Trumformerm, s5,m be 36.00subtotal $2.005.000

EngIneering nd Adinfstration, is% 300.750

ContIngences, 1ioTotat S2,S06,250

IBar: Mission asessment.

4Ative lenari lb, - Emin= ft*ah" of OX with Techn Tea Lad

431 The technical team's thirty year projection of load includes 3,000 resideatialconsumers, creating a demad of 547 kW and 672 productive use consumers creating a demand of400 kW. The total number of consumers is projected to be 3,672 with an associated total demandof 947 kW. This demand and load projecton are applied to the three-phase #2/0 ACSR distr-ibution line design proposd in the CEY report

432 In order to make a comparative study with scenario la, the required singee-phaseprimary lines, secondary lines, meters and service drops are also included for scenario Do. Tne totallength of primary distribution lines remains the same at 132 kms. The quantity of secondary lines,transformers and ser is reduced in accordance with the number of connections and 30 yeardemand projected by the technical team. Using criteria identical to that used in developing thealternative scenarios, it is projected that residential consumers the first year of operation wouldtotal 937 and that the number of productive end-use consumers would be 202. nitial residentialdemand of 97 kW plus the initial productive end-use demand of 100 kW results in a total year 1demand of 197 kW.

4.33 A brief smmaty showing loads and voltage drops along the main line for theprojected year thiny desig load for altmative senario lb follows in Table 4.7:

. 33 -

Table 4.7 ALTEATIVE SCEIO lb - VOLT DN

No. of coriues kVD hm km. to Volt dropLocation bond point total Sourc at pofnt

A 3,67% 96? 0 0a 2,5 740 26 2.7C 19m3 506 42 3.9

as 26 a 4.9E 199 5? i 5.3f 0 0 91 5.3aV

I Calculated voltog dps at lotfon F, te point farthest from thesource to well withn actod suideline for allolo volteop drop.

urces Nission _seesment.

4.34 An investigtion of voltage conditions associated with the thirty year projected loadresuted in a low voltage loss of 5.3 volts on a 120 volt base (4A %). This low voltae drop indic-ates that a reduction in conductor size and a change in line type from threephase to single-phaselines might be desireable. A voltage drop of approximately 8 volts on a 120 volt base (6.7 %) is anormally accepted value.

435 The voltage drop calculation is indluded in Annex 3 for reference. Voltage dropsand loads for this alternative scenario are also shown on the Plan Map lb.

4.36 The Lne desig utilizing three-phase #2/0 ACSR conductors, inadequate for the highloads projected by CEY, is more than adequate for load projections and demands forecast by thetechnical team. Alternative Scenarios II and a, which follow below, present the technical team'spreliary desin which take ito account different conductor sizes and line tpe to reduce linecost while maintaning satisfactory voltage levels to all projected consumers.

4.37 Cost. Inclusion of single-phase tap lines, secondary lnes, meters and services neces-ar to serve 3,000 residential consumers and 672 productive use consumers results in a totalestimated project cost for alternative soenario Ib of USS 1,791,590.

4.38 Unit cost, presented in Table 4.4 and Annex 3, along with the notes associatedwith unitzed costs, are used to develop the cost summary in Table 4.&8

*34 -

tls..h ALTEATIVE SCNRIO IS8 WSCM

Piefery lineThre.*Phae 2/0 ACR, 116 ks 944,000Single-Ph. tps, #4, 14 kw 42,000

Secondary llns, 6.5 km 199,950eteors, services, 3,224 comctl on3,6OO Al

Transformrs, 1,692 kvo MMllsubtotal $1,43,270

Engineering ad AdInistration, 1 214,9OContinoees, 105 ILem

Totat $1,1,590

j See footnote 16.

s3rs: Ni"sin assesmnt.

Alterative Soenario IL. - Technical Team Load Projections and PelMna Desi

439 Load projections in scenario It are identical to those used in scenario lb. For cost-savigs, the line design is changed. The technical team's thirty year projctdon of load includes3,000 residential consumers and 672 productive end-use consumers in the project area. Theresidential and productive use loads combine for a total demand of 947 kW. Thi demand and loadprojection is applied to a combined three-phase and single-phase distnbution system.

4.40 In addition, the size of line conductors is varied in proportion to actual load carried.Three-phase #1/0 ACSR is utlized on the main line up to point VC located 42 kms from thesource (see Plan Map II). The following 33 kms of line up to Point TE utlize te-phaseconstruction with #4 ACSR conductor. Beyond Point 'E, a single-phase #4 ACSR conductor isused. As the tnsmitted load is reduced, the conductor size is also reduced and the type ofconsuction is also varied from three-phase to single-phase. This results in a less costy distributionsystem while maintaining adequate voltage to all consumers on the system.

4A1 In order to make a direct comparisons with the other scenarios, secondary lines,meters and service drops adequate to serve the projected thirty year load are also included in thisdesign.

4.42 A brief summary showing loads and voltage drops along the main line for theprojected year thirty design load follows in Table 4.9:

a 35 e

Igt1l&. i ALTEIATIVE SCENIO II - VOIT NW

No. of Conser k Dhowed m. to Volt dropLocation beod point total swo at point

A 3,672 94? 0 08 2,885 740 26 3.2C 1,953 506 4a 4.6D 85? 226 63 7.2

199 S? 75 8.3F 0 0 91 8.9 A

Al Caleulated volte drops at tocation F, the point farthest frm theiwc, is slightly abo th deired accepted guidetins for allowablevoltao drop.

1m: Nission assessmmt.

4.43 An investition of voltage conditions associated with the tirty year projected loadresul in a voltage loss of 8.9 volts on a 120 volt base (7.4 %) at Point F. Voltage drops slightlyin exess of the accepted norm wil not affect operation of the stem or connected equipment.This 0.7% excessive voltage drop is wel within the range of voltage able to be corrected with theuse of voltage reglators at the source of the line.

4.44 The voltage drop calcuation is included in detail in Annex 3 for reference. Voltagedrops and loads for this scenario are also shown on Plan Map II. The quantity of secondary lines,transformers and services are included in accordance with the projected connections and thirty yeardemands.

4.45 Qmti Inlbusion of seconday lines, meters and services necesasy to serve 3,672consmers projected in 30 year with a demand of 947 kW restlted in an estiated cost ofUS$1,346,600. A cost summary for scenario II is presented in Table 4.10:

te 4.10s ALTUNTIVW SCEARIO It - COSTS

Primry lInnsThrwePae #1/0 ACR, 42 km 294,000ThreePhsoe 4 ACR, 33 km 165,000Single-Phase ts, A4, S5 k 171,000

Secondary line, 64.51k 199,9S0toers, servfe, 3,224 conncto 133.00 /

Tranoformrs, 1,892 kv e_ 3.S20Sibtotal $1,07,2

Engineerno nd Adintstratfon, 15X 161,600Contfnences, 105

Total $1,346,600

l See footnote 16.am Nission assesment.

a36.

4.46 The estiated total project cost for scenario I1 also utizes assumtions Included inthe notes asciated with unitized costs included in Annex 3. For technical puposes, the use ofvoltag regulators at the source end of the project are proposed. lTe proposed voltage replatorsfunetion to correct voltage tions caused either by loads on the line or by voltage excursionsexperienced In the generation or transion stem suppl* the line. The clusion of voltageregulators wil stabii the voltae supplied to the consumer throughout the length of the line andallow approximatel 25% greater load (1,200 kW total) than projected to be supplied without disce.mable deterioration In servie

4.47 Annex 4 shows a shematic represntation of voge reglator application displayingvoltage profile along a line for varying source voltage and line load conditions. It is with thisconsideration that the basic design of the line is for a peak load of 947 kW peak demand, withcapability to supply 1,200 kW without a discernable deteriortion in quality of electic service. Thepositive effects of voltage regulators on voltage are not included in voltage drops shown on the PlanMaps.

Altemative Soenario - Thnical Team l d Projcions ad Atae h i

4.48 Lead projections in Scnario m are identical to those used in SCariO lb and LThe predimay line desin is changed and two separte sources of power are utilized. In additionto grid extension from the exitng power source at Chulumani, supplying aroxmate one-halfof the valley, a 300 kW hydropower plant is proposed near the town of La Asunta to serve anisolated sstem

4.49 The technial team's year 30 projection of load includes 3,000 residential consumersand 672 productive use consumers in the project area. ITe combined residential and commercialtotal demand with the dual systems is esimated to slighty exceed 947 kW due to the tecnicaldesg Actual projected loads are divided between the two systems as displayed in Table 4.11:

Lab&4 4.11 ALTNTIVE SCENARIO III COSINED SYSTU

ChUltML ton La AsUwta Plant

Re1dutfal Conrs 2,064 936Prodaottve use Conomrs Z i

Total 2,526 Ill6besIdtfat Demand, kW 37 173Proittw un Demad. kW m in

Total 654 A 310 A

#I SW of the dume for the 2 systm is slightly peterthan the dman 1n Snarifs lb nd It de to dolsytom design.

go= Nissfon assessamnt.

.37 -

4.50 In compliance with good engineeing practice, the sie of line conductors b vaiedto take advantage of economics nnected with of smaller condcor lines In addition,the number of phases is vaied to reduce cost where load and asociated voltage drop wouldalow. A bief summary showing loads and voltage drops along the main ina for the projected yearthirty design load follows in Table 4.12. The voltap drop calculation is included in Annex 3 forreference. Voltae drop and loads are also sown an Pla Map m3L

X*La.si12 ALTlrKi SCEWRIO III - WIt KW i

No. of Co_asmr kV Du.d km. to Volt dropLocatton beynd point total soup" at point

5ml ra. ChuIMMIA 2.526 654 0 0a 1,736 469 26 4.SC 807 213 42 6.20 0 0 63 6.9

Sm.Y fran Ptait at La Aamta5 1.146 310 0 0b 171 49 12 0.9D1 0 0 20 1.2- 0 0 16 0.6

9/ Calcutetod volttge drope at all locatio are within th accepted guidelines for allowablevoltta drop.

am: Niasson assmm.

4.51 In order to make a comparative sudy with the other alternative scenarios, secondatylnes, metes and sevice drops adequate to serve the projected drty year load are illuded in thedesig The quantity of secondary lines, ormers and services are included in accordance withthe projected comnections and year 30 projected demand.

4.52 Due to the reduced power carg requirement of individual line sections inherentto baving two different supWy points on the sstem, conductor sizes and length of thr hase linesis reduced. Singe-phase lines are adequate to provide satisfactory power to alarge portion of thesem. The total length of tee-phase line in this searo is 63 kms and all lines are consuced

with #4 ACSR conducto.

4.53 Q& Inclusion of secondary lines, mets and services necessy to serve 3,674consumers prqected in thirt yeas reults in an eimated cost of US $ 1,979,590. Unit costspresented in Table 4.4, are used to develop the cost smmary presented in Table 4.13.

0 38 -

~~~~.38X*L9_.&tal ALTERMTIVW SCENAIO 111 - COSTS

Primry linesThree-Phae A4 ACSR, 63 km 315,000SingLepht e 84 Atp069 km 207,000

Secondary ltne, 64.5 bk 199,950Nters, ervices, 3,2264 coections 133,800 IVTranform, 1,892 kva 113,520NdroLectric Plant, 300 kV 600W000

Sutott 31,569.27

Engineering nd Administration, 152 253,390Contingencies, 102 12fl.M

Total 11,979.S90

V See footnote 16.

surce: Nfsuion assessmmt.

454 From an engneering Perspective, the addition of voltage regulators at the Chulumanisource end of the project would be recommended. The proposed voltage regulators function tocorrect for voltage variations caused either by loads on the line or by voltage excursions eperiencedin the generation or tra on stem supplying the line. The iusion of voltage regulators willstabilize the voltge supplied to the consumer throughout the length of the line and allow up to 25%greater load than projected to be supplied without discernable deterioration in service. Voltageregulators are not required at the La Asunta generating plant as the generators themselves can beused to regulate voltage durig periods of peak loads.

455 As noted Annex 4 is a schematic digram showing voltae profie along a line forvayng source voltage and line load conditions and the effect of voltage regulation on voltagelevels supplied to consumers.

AditionlAttemative Soenadio

4.56 Tlhe tecal analysi investigated other possle methods of provimng electricsevice to the area. Basicaly, these additional alternatives called for eliminating the connection tothe eisting grid and supplying all and partal load with seffsuficient hydroelectric plants. ScenarioIV outlined the istalation of small hydower sytm (1.2 MW) and scenario V the insaltionof a mini-ydro unit (300KW) near one key load center. Prdenay costs for these developmentswere projected as US$4.2 million and US$604,000, respectively.

457 The primy reasons for Apr8aps eliinating the scenarios from furtherdevelopment are financial, as well as strategic Scenario IV was eliminated due to high costs, Le,US $42 million compared to the grid exesion scenarios shows this to be an cessive high costalternative. In additon this estimated amount does not include institutional and technical costsrequired for maintenane, operation and adinistrtion of a decenalid ystem Scenario V. wasruled out due to limited grid coverage that would be provided in the project zone (18% of demand)as AgryunWs planning interests are focused on ambmjigcj immg for the project area.

- 39 -

osite Cmprison of Scenario

4.58 Table 4.14 presents a summaty comparison of the technical scenarPos for which loadand costs have been presented:

takle 4.4: SUYMARY COWPARISON OF ALTERNATIVES la, tb, tl, AND III I/

I eu I a l1 ILL

Number of Consumers 7,384 3,674 3,674 3,674Peak Demand, kW 2,886 946 946 946Primary Distribution line, kmn 132 132 132 132Secondary Line, kim 130 64.5 64.5 64.5Meters and Services b/ 6,498 3,224 3,224 3,244Transformer Capacity, kwa 5,7M 1,092 1892 1,892Generating plant, kV 0 0 0 300Construction Cost $2,005,000 1,433,270 1,077,270 1,569,270Engineering and

Administration, 15% 300,750 214,990 161,600 253,390Contingencies, 10X 200.00 1U.330 107.73 156.930Total Cost $2,506,250 1,791,590 1,346,600 1,979,590

8/ For each of the alternatives presented, there are 132 kilometers of primary three-phase orsingle phase lines. Differences in cost result from varying the typ, of line or size ofconductor.

k/ See footnote 16.Source: Mission assessment.

4.59 stCost Scenano for C=rhwsa Grd Covera. On the basis of technicaland cost parameters invesited, scenario II would represent a least-cost senario form=rehensive ua Sard coverage. Gven projected demand, initial year funding requirementsfrom the engineering perspective are estimated in Table 4.15:

ITable 4.15: FIRST YEAR FUNDING REJUIRRNENTS-ALTERNATIVE -SCENARIO II

Primary Lines, 132 km, 630,000 j/Secondary Lines, 32 kms 99,200 IVNeters and Services, 1,004 41,600 S/Transformers, 946 kvt ILa I

Sibtotal 827,560Engineering and Administration, 15% 124,130Contingencies, 10% 82,760

Total $1,034,450

A/ It is proposed to initfally construct 100% (132 kam) of the ultimately required primary distribution line.kb It Is proposed to inftially construct 50% (32 km.) of the ultimately required 64.5 km of distribution Line.I/ Initfal projectlons require srvfes for 1,004 metered cons4mers In the flrst year of operation. (937

residential, 67 productive end-use).g, It Is estimated that SOX (946 kva) of the ultimately requIred transformer capacity (1,892 kwa) is required

to reach the initially connected consumers.g/ Figures are estfmeted and could vary according to actual design execution In year 1.sgrae: Mission assesseant.

-40.

V. FINANCIALECONOMIC EVALUATION

MilladlEcnMMic Vjabflt gf Grid Seenaro

Overview

5.1 This chapter preents information necessary for, and the results of, the financialand economic evaluation of the four scenarios previously disssed. Key data such as the numberof consumers by type, enerag use levels, and cost of construction have been presented in previouschapters A brief summaty of the analytial methodology is presented here, as well as a discussionof inputs and results. Annex 9 includes a detailed disussion of the evaluation methodolog.

52 Mgdjjug. The DAM rural electrification planning modeL working with field-baseddata on residential and productive-end-we demand, is used for the financial and economicevaluations With the demand data and cost input, the model calculates both finanial andeconomic costs and benefits by year associated with each scenario considerecL The resutspresented are Net Present Value (NPV) and the Benefit/Cost (B/C) ratios for the life of theproposed project The model is also used to calculate the Economic Rate of Return on investmentbut only for demand scenario II, as this wenario represents the least-cost scenario f

E iancial Ana"i

53 The financa analyis presented views costs and benefits strcly from the ditributionutility's point-of-view, La what wouid the proposed project cost the utility (up-front oonstructionplus wholesale power cost and operation and maintenance costs) vers what are the revenues thatwi:l be generated (tarMtimes the kWh consmpton for residential and productive end-users). Thefinancial analysis reflects the project viability if the utility were paying the full cost of the project

Eonmic Ana3mi

5.4 The model's economic analys ansiders costs and benefits on a more macro scalethan the financi analys The primary difference is in consideration of benefits. As descrI,edin Annex 9, the economic analysi considers benefits other than tarff revenue brought about by theintroduction of electricit. Such benefits include:

(a) Residental cones' tariffpayments plus an estimate of cost savings and consmersurplu8

(b) Actual energyrelated cost savi + naused productivity + increased electricity-induced quality effects for Oexsting productive uses; and

(c) Wlinness to pay for electric and related expenditures in the case of newproductive end-use activ (see Annex 9).

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5S5 Foredg inputs are priced in order proesa and domestic inputs are convted atthe ehane rate of Bs. 3 per USS. (The sadov3 rate used in the analysis equals the market ratein Boli"ia). 1h estimated lorun ma a cost of electriciy is used for the cost side of theeconomic analysis.

5.6 In addition to specific cos and benefit inputs, key parameters used in the analysisare as foows:

I= of For NPV and B/C anabes, a teem of project is defined to allowpresent value calcuations. Based on desgn criteria for the line, a 30-year term is used in allcalculations.

Discunt Rate. A real discount rate of 12 percent is used in all analyses, based onthe esiated oormunity cost of capitaL

Producti a a. 'e hviabillty of the scenarios b, and m has beenana*zed using the Vrobable" and 'optimis sienaros for growth in productive end-use activities(see Capter U).

Enr= Usxe LeL Residential energy use is a ted at 15 kWh/month for year1 and 40 kWh/month in year 30. Energy use level for individual producive use activities areoutlned in Cap M Table 3.6.

lariff The exsng CEY tarff is adjusted for this analysi In light of CEY'scurrent request for a rate increase, a tiff with a similar structure but 20% increase is used in the

alyse (see Annex 7, Tariff BOLl). First yea monthly residential cost for 15 kWh are thereforeestmted at US$236. Tarff rwenue fom commercial sales to productive end-users of electriityare calated on the basis of projected kWh consumption and application of CEY's exstingcommercial tariff sucture with no inrea (see An 7, Tariff BOL2). Street lighting is billedat $3333/month per 100 conumerm

5.7 Cost categories are as folws:

Consuuction Gat&l7he cont on cost applied to each scenario are based onthe cost presented in the engineering section of this rport. In the case of secondary line costs,hoever, the fncia/economic analysi asmes that 20 percent of these cost wil oocur afterinital c thereby creating a smal difference between the construion costs presentedin the technical secion and the ki JuLaln9oNJk a1 used in the financial-economic analysis.Also the cost of meters and services are alted throughout the life.ofproject based on numberof new consumers per year.

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Addg Cnum Connec4 An additional cost of US$4150 is calclated fornew consumer whkh represents the cost of connection. w2

QfgnEM. The lontrun marginal costs of electricity (US$0.055/kWh for year1, US$0.47 kWh for year 30) was derived from World Bank sources w The wholesale cost ofpower to the utit is based on present wholesale power cuntact figures for CEY from COBEE(US$0.0201/kWh).

=Oprtio and Mai c Thes costs as presented in the model areestimated on a per-kilometer of line bass (US$20.00/month) and a per-consumer basis(US$.75/month).

IAnDMMu andDlrllian1M. losses are estimated at 12% technical and3% non-technical for the model analysi

Financial eknefit

5.8 The only financial benefits considered in the analysi are revenue from tariff(kWh/month times the appropriate rate stucture for residential, pmductive use, and street lightingconsumers) along with an initial, one-time connect fee of $100/consumer as is presently ClEYspolicy.

Eooi Benfit

5.9 Economic benefit from residential electricity use is estimated as savings in current,non-electric lighting costs (weighted average of LPO, candles and kerosene) minus cost ofequivalent electric l*ghtlng plus electrciy taiff payments, plus an estimate of consumer surplus,

suming the eistence of a 'demand for lighting services" function (see Annex 4). Lighting costsavingp are estimated at US$438 per consumer, per month. Consumer surplus is US$3.81 perconsumer, per month. Tariff is US$235 per consmer per month for year 1, induding pubiclighting charges, and US$331 for year 30. Total economic benefits from eectricity sales to theresidential sector are calcuated as US$10.34 per conumer per month for year 1 and US$1150per consumer per month for year 30.

WI For modeling purposes in the 4to equa th eimatd nmb of OreideAl onectis whi all prodve eaduse av M beencoi as A Mfte WdIe th tot amount of sod rMans th same, in th financihl-ecoonomic anali thds iY_ bis upwad apa coo for c l but at the sam tm revenuos fomoonncmo a are aad Te sum differenc hower is ea in Senado =& the anas coslddws 1,004 connetios wih a cost of S41.600 year 1. lw _c oddol-Jcconnecdto co of 547,265 year 1. in addon, th onSc anls a ommerial tardff sucure is

lWd to a produt endusss while numerous uss would be ran under a rddial conon. is has theat of a t downwd bia Ienue given th a o of a lower ommeral rte stc

9 13PBAAP Report 'aBu for the Fomation of a Natonl Eher Pln*, November 1967.

.43.

5.10 Economic benefit from sale of eleticity to existing productive end-users currentlyusing alternative energ sources (see Chapter m, Tables 3.6) is estimated based upon themethodology used by NRECA in Central Amiierica w reflecting energ savings, production increasesand/or increased product quality (see Annex 9). Extensive field interviewing of entrepreneurs inthe Yungas region, both within and outside the project area, was carried out in order to gatherneeded information.

5.11 Economic benefit related to new (presently non-edstent) productive end-uses iestimated simply as the wiUlingness to pay for the electric service, based on projected energy uselevels and the commercial tariff (see Chapter m, Table 3.6 for benefit summay).

5.12 Economic benefit from street lighting is estinated based on wiingnes to paycriteria, i.e. US$33.00/month per 100 consumers.

5.13 The results of the analysis based on the model calcuations are presentedon Table 5.1:

TIl&e 5.1: FIMANCIAL-ECOUGUC RESULTS PR08SL

Financial Financial Economc Econormic InternalScenario Net Present B/C WPV B/C Rate of

Value (NPV) Return

us$ us$

Scenario IA. 5/ -1,252,124 0.63 1,967,890 1.43

Scenario 18. -1,419,401 0.37 233,768 1.09

AlternativeScenario 11 *974,401 0.46 678,768 1.31 17.8X

AlternativeScenario III 1,549.14S 0.35 27n.199 1.10

S/ For modelling purposes in the financial-economic analysis, since CMY did not specificallysub-divide residential and productive and-use demand, 56 kh/=month is utilized for residtfntalconsumpion, and 140 kUhImonth for protuctive end uses. In this manmer, the analysis arrivesat the total kwh sales per month projected by CEY. The enogneering analysis for scenrioIA projected 28 kWh/onth residential and 281 bIb/month productive use to arrive at totaldemand projected by CEY). According to the field-basad estimates, however, CMY projectionsare virtually ifqxssible in nurber of consumers and etaggerated in eneroy consmptlon levels.Thus, the high economic benefits presented are overly optimistic.

Source: Mission assessment.

NRECA/US D: Ce tad Ame sa Rual Elecnficaton Proect,An Eonomic of Eecic in Producti,eUse Actives in Rural Guatema," 1989.

.44 -

Model Results Under "Optimti Growh

5.14 The woptimistic" scenario for productive use growth was developed by allowing thenumber of productive end-use enterprises to grow at a general rate of 10% per year. The startingnumber of productive end-use activities is taken to the equal to that of the "probable" swenario(except in the case of coffee pulpers and a welding shop) as presented in Chapter m, Table 3.7.By allowing the number of productive end-use activities to grow at a higher rate, financial andeconomic benefits are enhanced under al options. ( No "optimis growth scenario was developedfor scenario IA as the CEY study presents an over optimistic demand).

Tabte 5.2: FINANCIAL-ECOONIC RESULTS - OPTINISTIC

Financial Financial Economic Economic InternatScenario Net Prosent B/C NPV B/C Rate of

Value (NPV) Return

US$ USS

Scenario 18 -1,274,737 0.46 708,663 1.25

AlternativeScenario II -829,737 0.57 1,153,663 1.67 21.X

Alternativescenario III -1,357,178 0.44 866,702 1.32

-curce: Nission assessment.

Observations

5.15 As noted, no scenario is financialy viable under the 'probable" or "optimisEscenario, assuming the utility has to bear the entire construction cost. In alternative scenario II,to break-even financially the project would require a donation of approimately US$.97 millionunder the "probable" scenario and US$.82 under the "optmistic' productive use scenario.

5.16 As shown for alternative II (probable and optimistic), promotion of productive end-uses enhances the project's viability. Development and application of a rational tariff regime at theproject specific level would also help augment the financial viability of the project. While the studydoes not carry out a specific tariff anawys it is evident that the reta tarif strucure applied to theproject (even with the 20% increase) is below marginal cost. The marlinal cost for bulk sales tothe dtribution entity for year 1 are estimated at US$0.055 kWh, while the retail residential andproductive use tariffs are US$.052 and .043, (above 25 kWh and 50 kWh respectivel).

5.17 Using the "probable" growth cases for comparison, one notes that scenario II has thegreatest economic net present value-xcluding scenario Ia with its omeated number of projectedconsumers and demand.

. 45 .

5.18 Economic benefit under scenario II b roughly bween US$.68 1.15 mmion In netpresent value tems, depending on the productive end-us scenario chosen, Le. probable oroptimstic

5.19 While financa viability i not acdeve undr the scenarios a presented, the Inputof increased tarffs In the model allow for a prelimia view of the peocntage ine that wouldbe requred to cover the project's total cost, e. B/C = 1.00, using senaro 1 and probabledemand. For financial viability, a taff incrase of apprme 10 175% over the presentaverage rate would be necesary.

a46 .

VL INSTUTIONAL ASPES

Overview

6.1 This dhapter discsses the insional framework for rural grid etension in theproject zone. Due to the planning objectives of Agroyungas to provide comprehensive coverage,the most immediate arrangement to achieve this objective woud be to exed the service area ofthe exsting rnual cooperative of the Yungas, CEY, to indlude the project zone. Also, thepreiminr study shows that for m hse a decentralized system (hydropower)vastly exeeds the cost of grid extension (US$42 million vs. US$13 milLion). This involvement ofCEY would infer CEY's operation, management and maintenance of the proposed line. To assurethe institutional viability of this option however-in addition to tariff adjustnents and the formalizedpromotion of productive end-uses to augme..i financial viability-administrative and technicalassistance would be required for CEY as part of the overall project. A prelininary overview ofCEY follows, along with an outline of the enhanced instutional asistance that would be required.

6.2 Headquartered in Coroico, and formed in the late 1970's, CEY currently serves some4,000 consumers in the Yungas in the main towns of Coroico, Coripata and Irupana, as weU as thesmall villages surrounding Irupana and a commercial district in Chulumani (see Annex 12).

63 Average total consumption for CEYrs consumers is 38 kWh per consumer, permonth. The residential average is 30 kWh per consumer, per month. Commercial categories andconsumption are broken down accordingl: General 1 (commercial - less than 10 kW) with 151kWh per consumer, per month; and General 2 (commercial - 10 kW or more) with 320 kWh perconsumer, per month (4 consumers only). Industrl users average 780 kWh per consumers. permonth (5 consumers only). Many of the small business enterprises in the CEY service area arehome-based and are therefore billed at the residential rate dass, although a large percentage of theuse is commercial. Strictly residential use in outlying rural areas is in the range of 15-20 kWh perconsumer, per month. Public lighting averages 1,000 kWh per community (24 villages). Referringto all General and Industrial accounts as productive end-uses, some 20% of total system revenuesare generated by these categories, yet represent 5% of all consumers.

Load Promotion

6.4 Productive uses of electricity are not actively promoted by CEY but the financialbenefits of such loads are well recognized. Based upon technical team interviews, the attitude inthe Cooperative prevais that since the basic system is installed, load development would allow forenhanced returns.

6.5 The Cooperative By-Laws provide for a Commercial Department with responsibilityfor productive uses and residential load marketing programs. However, there is only limited

.47 .

activity in this area at present. The Department b equpped with an Apple Macintosh computerthrough which all billing and consumer reques are processed. (Such data access would greatlyfaciitate evaluation of market demand and energy use patterns, and could thereby assisting in thedevelopment of an effective productive end-uses program).

6.6 A 'Comite de Educacion was recently formed at the initiative of new Boardmembers to promote commercial uses of electy. The committee is composd of volunteers,mostly Board members, who are tying to win approval for an operating budget of 5% of grossrevenues to support promotion activities. The 8Comite" membes interviewed realize that this Ian insufficient amount to adequately serve the need. The followig isues were also oudined duringinterviews:

(a) connect policy is cumbersome ie., new members must go to La Paz and buy theirown meter, and costly,

(b) service must be improved in some areas ie. reduced outage time;

(c) new markets must be found for end products; and

(d) credit for initial investment in productive use equipment b not presently available.

Line Extension Financin

6.7 Line extensions from the Cooperative are typically financed by 50% up-frontcommunit contribution and 50% from Cooperative funds, if and when available. The communitycontribution usualy comes from the regional development corporation CORDEPAZ which isaugmented by some direct community collection. Matching Cooperative funds are often notavailable and, consequently, several projects with approved CORDEPAZ/community funding arepending.

6.8 As noted, members requesting new service are required to purchase their own meter(available only in La Paz) as well as pay for other service entrance equipment (often looking to theregional development corporation for support). Total costs are approximately BsS 300x400,including internal house wiring which accounts for Bs$ 50-60. Service requests are typically heldby the Cooperative until 2 or 3 accumulate in an area before the Commercial Departmentauthorizes a lineman to travel to the area to connect. This is due primarily to limited staff and thediffcult travel to many parts of the service territory.

6.9 Serie Area Extension, Recently, CEY has taken-over service in the centralcommercial ditrct in Chulumani, which is presently served by a smaller distibution entityCooperativa Electrica de Chulumani (CEC) which possess its own mini-hydropower generationsystem. This act was in response to commercial enterprises seeking a more reliable source ofenergy, even at a higher price. ( As asessed by the technical team, a typical commercial enterprisein Chulumani pays approimately Bs$ 45.00 for 300 kWh under CEY tari, while the smallercooperative CEC charges about Bs $27.00 for the same energy).

.48.

xtension in the Project Area

6.10 The technical team considers that the most appropriate institutional administrationof the rural grid extension in the project area (given Agroyungas priorities in onrehen,siv Sextension) would be through CEY. This assumes however that the financial viability of the projectwould be enhanced via tariff study and reform and a vigorous and institutionalized promotion ofproductive end-uses in the project area on the part of Agroyungas and CEY. As noted in ChapterIL, CEY currently purchases power from COBEE through the lines of ENDE and distrbutes powerthrough its rural grid nearby the project area. Proximity to, years of operation nearby andfamiliarity with the project area leaves CEY as the most appropriate entity for distribution in theProject zone.

6.11 CEY's 4,000 consumers have been added in time to the basic system. Since itsformation, however, the cooperative has received limited technical or institutional assistance. Inaddition to the fnancial burden imposed by the project (under the current tariff structure andprojected demand it represents a financial loss) the incorporation of the Asunta valley service areaand 132 kms of grid and 1,004 additional connections (937 residential and 67 productive end-use)in year 1 would be a large addition for CEY in terms of management, operation and maintenance.For the longevity of the institution and assured operation and maintenance of the proposed gridextension, a comprehensive institutional analysis of CE'Y would be recommended. The objectivesof this assessment would be to be to analyze the current financial situation and administrativeprocedures, as well as the technical capabilities of CEY to administer the proposed grid extension.The goal would be to incorporate an administrative and technical assmistance program to CEY aspart of the Agroyungas project, as well as a clear definition of an appropriate tariff structure.

6.12 In a preliminary assessment by the technical team, the following areas were pointedout for follow-up:

(a) The Cooperative's admiistration should place more emphasis on businessadministration and less time on engineering problems, which could be handled moreefficiently by trained national engineers or consultants;

(b) The Cooperative administration needs to establish written procedural manuals andpolicies for customer services, employee job descriptions, and operation andmaintenance procedures;

(c) The operational division should implement a systematic preventative linemaintenance program. Likewise a program to maintain line equipment should beestablished. The quality of materials used in line construction should also beimproved. To accomplish this, CEY should adopt internationally accepted materialspecifications, based on a 25.30 year useful life;

(d) CEY's epnsion policy should focus on "backfill,' that is, connecting thoseconsumers under the existing lines. A productive use/consumer services department

* 49-

should be created if the project is implemented. Along these same lines, consumercredit programs should be developed for housewiring and productive uses; and

(e) CEY should prepare comprehensive annual workplans and long-range workplans.

Administrative and Technical Assistance Requirement

6.13 To fulfill the goals outlined above and manage the institutional dynamics of anenhanced service area, the following training and institutional support should be implementedsimultaneously with any project infrastructure component:

Management Training. CEY requires training at all managerial levels of theelectrical distribution sector. Management training for maintaining and utilizing improvedaccounting and operational procedures would be needed in order to integrate the entire systeminto a cohesive distribution network. Specialized training in utility programming and planning inconnection with computer-based management software would also be required. In addition,assistance will be required in the organization and staff training of the consumer servicesdepartment. Specialized training in productive use equipment promotion, credit services, andconsumer relations is paramount to the viability of any follow-up project

Technical raining. Technical training should focus on the development of skillimprovement courses for the electrical technicians. Test equipment and specialized workshop toolpurchases could be included in this component. Specialized training courses would be required toimprove equipment maintenance costs and consumer equipment records.

Operations Strengthening. A standardized accounting system should be instituted,together with new management control standards and procedures In addition, a standardizedworkorder procedure and inventorying system must be instituted. Computer equipment andstandardized software would be required to improve inventory controL establish and maintainproperty records, and reorganize consumer, commercial and billing records.

Additional Line Maintenance Equiment. This would have to be procured to install,maintain, and service new consumers in the region. Enough equipment would have to be purchasedto serve the needs of CEY for five years of operation.

*so -

VIL CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMENDATIONS

7.1 Application of the DAM model to establish the financial-eonomic viability of thescenarios shows that no scenario Is financialy viable, despie a least-cost approach design Tli isthe case under both the "probable" and "optimistic dmad growth sceno as developed by thetechnical team. In contrast, and ruling out scenaro IA due to over optimistic estimates forconsumers and kW demand, all alternative scenarios are viable in economic terms. In partiuar,scenario H (as the least-cost option for aarcwm=C mad g .aiga) shows an economicbenefit of between US$.69 million in net present value terms for the probable gowth scenario,and approximately US$1.15 million for the optimistic growth sconario. lhe intenal rate of returnfor the scenario II is alculated at 17.8% (probable) and 21% (aptmistic).

7.2 The absence of financial viability, considering the investment from the perspectiveof the rural distribution entity CEY, denotes a negative financial burden on the institution. In sum,the financial viability of the project would have to be increased in order to ensure the institutionalviability of CEY. Two complementary methods to augment the financial viability would be:

(a) The development and application of a rational tariff regime for CEY that wouldallow CEY to develop and apply tariffs that cover marginal costs; and

(b) The development and application of an institutionalized promotion of productiveend-uses in the project .,ne on the part of Agroyungas and CEY. (In particular,the program would have to focus on industry and agro-industrial development in theproject zone in order to build load and enhance the return on the projectinvestment).

In light of these needs, a detailed institutional evaluation of CEY (including a turiff review and theoutline of a formal program for promoting productive end uses) should be included as an initialcomponent in any project follow-up. Developed in tandem, points (i) and (ii) outlined above wouldbe cucial for enhancing project viability and, in the long-tern, guarnteeing the institutionalviability of the grid extension and CEY. For the outline of a productive end-use program seeAnnex 11.

Rura Electrifilcation

73 Rural electrification, as noted in Chapter I, has generally received a low priority inenerg planning and investment in Bolivia. In most cases, projects lack a methodological evaluationof rural electricity demand and, in turn, a realistic assessment of a project's viability . Asdemonstrated, projects generaly display an overly optimistic assessment of financial-economic orinstitutonal viability. As shown in the analsis, and working with a field-based demand evaluation,

-51-

the proct n plated by UNFDAC Is difficult to just In stri financial terma However, theproject demoat posiive economic beneft In this rWerd, projeca planners, working Incoordination with the appropriate GOB authorities, should fcus on the development of points (i)and (ii) outlined above.

7A In terms of a cas study for the Nationa Plnnin group within the MSH, theanalysis would arge for a more accurate assessment of nural electricity demand based at thevillage-unit level For the presented anasis, this has taken pla with te asstc of the DAMplanning modeL More acurate demand work allows for a prioritization of rural electrificationprojects based upon a more realistic measure of their financial-economic and instutional viability.

7.5 Tle study alo point out that the viat of rura grid tems (centrizd ordecentralied) can be augmented if productive end-use load can be strengthened and developed.In the case of the Yungas, those activities that would build load, i.e. agroindustries, are shown. Aformalized promotion of productive end-usesncorporated as a project ponent also holds thepotential for complementing rural development activities. Such a component would infer inter-ititutional coordination, including MEH MACA as well as the executing agency and/or donors.

CalulatinsgRural Dmd

7.6 The need for-and results of-a field-based evaluation are evident. The estimatesdeveloped by the technical team are markedly diferent from those presented to Aryungs in theCEY report (65% reduced kW demand, and 50% reduction in residential and productive useconsmers). Based upon more accurate edsting and prospective demand estimates and input, amore appropriate tem can be designed and the financial-economic viability of the projectealculated.

7.7 Demand is idealy quantified at the vilage levl and growth estfimates projected oncommunity characteristc In the cases of residential and productive use demand, the technicalvaluation held to medium range growth estimates (4% growth in residential connections and

between 4 and 5% aggete growth in productive end-uses per year). This is based upon £eldassessment In the project zone and observed acities in electrified regions outside the project zone.In sum, demand esmates (see Chapter ImI Table 3.9) show a relatively limited demand-198 kWdemand in year 1, and 947 kW demand year 30 in 'probable growth, and 243 kW in year I and1,313 year 30 under the 'optimistic growth' scenario.

7.8 Liraited Dnd and A ate tm Dewelpment The limited demandgave rise to the development on the pat of the technical team of alternative scenario V. ScenarioV calls for the development of 300 kW mini-hydropower site and a loclzed grid in one site,constituting a xmately 18% of estinated demand in the project zone. The alternative was notdeveloped due to planning interess in -m1 shIn d.nrmgu. n comparison to this option,however, edimat at approximately US$ 604,000 (without the cost of the insdtutional developmentrequred for a decentralied system) the tchnical grid tension design of smiario II (at US$ 13milion) renders omprehensive grid coverage in the project zone and allows for projected system

52 -

growth without izeable capital invements tbru year 30. At the prefeasbw level, the alterativefor grid-extension, as opposed to schemes for renewable generation and loclized grids, wouldappear to be the most cost-effective solution for grid coverae as well as ytem growth

7.9 Based uponi project planning priority in eMonmive sd coeage, alternativescenario II refiects design changes on the ornal CEY stem that result in lower cos" whilee ig ystem integrity and reliabilit. Both voage drop and stem pgwth are accounted forin the desi as presented. The basic dep of the lineis for a load of 947 kW peak demand, butmaintains a pabiity to supply 1,200 kW without a discernaMe deterioradon in quality of electricservice. The estimated cost for this seario is USS 13 million (including egineeinadministration and contingencies). Initial funding reIements, based upon the engieeringestimate, are in the range of US$1.03 milion.

7.10 The development of the field-based demand assessment, ooupled with the design ofa technicaloption for rid coverage, allows for the application of the DAM model and, in turn, aview of the financial-economic viability of the various scenarios. The field asesment demonstatesthat the key obstacle to project viability is the current limited demand for electicity in zone.

7.11 As noted, no scenario is viable in financial term. The financial viabty, basedupon naro II (as the least-cost comprehensive grid option), is sightly increased under theoptimitc demand growth scenario. Under both scenarios, however, the project shows positiveeconomic benefts (Ecnomic NPV of US$678,768 "probable and US$1,153,663 "optimistie). Iheobjective of augmenting financial vbiit could be accomplished with the application of both tarreform and the development and applicaon of an instutionalied progam of promotingproductive end-uses. The latter point would imply a coordinated effort with roles for UNFDAC,CRY, MACA, as well as the regional development corporation, CORDEPA7. Table 3.6 displaysthe profile of rural agro-indusries that could complement development efforts in the Asunta valeyand which are well suited to the natural resource base in the area.

7.12 Based on model runs, of a reta tariff that would cover the project's total cost, ie.B/C = 1.00 reveals that the necessay inreasewould be in the order of l50 - 175% over thepresent rate. Thbis would refer to scenario II under the "probable demand growth.

7.13 The rural cooperative CEY has received liited technical or administrativeassistance since its creation in the 1960's. The inclusion of the Asunta Valley seicearearepresents a relativelyrge addition. As a project component, CEY would be best served with anIndepth institudonal analysis, the objecteve of which would be to assess the financial andadmInIstraive assistance necessary to ensue the financial and Institutional viability of any projectfolow-up as wel as CRY. (The technical and administrative welare of CEY has a direct bearingon the suc:ess of any project folow-up on the part of UNFDAC). In addition to a taiff review,a sudy would focus on the administrative, maintnance and operation procdures and standards.

.53 -

The isituional viiit of CEY is also a key cowmponent to the success of an oranized programIn the promotion of productive end-uses.

PQoli Considerations

7.14 Since there is reason to believe that the Agroyunga Project is firly representativeof rural elecrfication projects in Bolia with rgrd to its costs and its benefits, some wider polfylessons can be drawn from it.

7.15 On the cost L a key lesson from the piot project b that aipenditures on properpre-feasibit work are more than justified in tem of resuting cost saviap on plnt investments:The investment in the prefoasility study was less tan USS 50,000, the Idetified Cost savinamounted to over US$ 1 million.

7.16 About 60% of the cost s were caused by a lowering of the demand estiate,the remaini 40% resulted from a switch to a lower cost design lhus, a complementarycondiusion is that a carefu anlysi of demand is at least as important in promoting cost savingsas the work on the technical identifiation of leas cost desigs

7.17 On the benefit side, the key lesson is that the economic rate of return of the projectis cruciay dependent on the possiflity of attracting the lowest income consumers. The first yearecnomic benefit of electrification derived from the replacement of candle consumption is morethan twice as high as the benefit from kerosene replacement and more than six times as high as thebenefit from LPG sbsiution. Presently, the cost to the household of connecting to CErsdistribution line is apprSiately U$ 100. In the absence of grants or loans for low-incomehouseholds for the connection costs, only a very low percentage of candle consuming householdswi be able to conne to the distruion network. In that case, the economic benefit fromhousehold coonsmption would be about 40% lower than esimated in the rate-of-retun calculationin the report.

7.18 The case for loan financing of connections is reinforced by a second conclusion fromthe field work: The monthly bill for lighting services is much higher for candle and for keroseneconsumers than for electricity cosu a The former pay about USS 6 a month for lightingserices, electricity conmers US$ 2.50, alough the latters' conumpton of ligng services ismuch higher. The welfare implications from this situation are evident But for the projectauthorities, the financal implications a equaly interestng: Low income consumers can affordto pay about US$ 3.50 per month in amortizton on connection costs

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LOAD PROJECrIONS

Load No. of Demand KWJMIOkWh/NO/Cons Factor Consumers (KW) TOTAL

Technical Team Estimates

Residential LoadYEAR1 15 0.2 937 97 14,000YEAR 30 40 0.3 3,000 546 120,000

PROUCTIVE USEYEAR 1 141 0.40 202 100 28,500YEAR 30 203 0.47 672 400 136,500

TOTAL DENAND. YEAR 30 946 KWCEY EPRfFtT WAT

.ESSUETIAL LOWYEAR 1 28 A/ 0.34 2,000 225 56,000YEAR 30 75 0.41 6,050 1.510 454,000

PROWUCTIYE UYEAR 1 281 a/ 0.40 404 394 113,500YEAR 30 381 0.51 1.344 1,376 512,000

TOTAL DEMAND. YEAR 30 L2.8 KU

p1 For the financial-economic analysis, kWh per month for residential users of 56 kWh and140 kWh productive use is used in the DAN model. This results in the total kWh demandprojected by CEY.

fSore: Nission assessment.

- 55 -

ANNEX IPage 2 of 10

DEMAND TABLES

ESNAP PROJECTIONS

Table kWh/month/consumer Load F1E&orResidential, year 1 Is 0.20Residential, year 30 40 0.30Coiurcial, year 1 141 0.40Comercial, year 30 203 0.47

CEY PROJECTIONS g/

Table kWh/month/consumer LoafactorResidential, year 1 b/ 28 0.34Residential, year 30 75 0.41Coffuercial, year 1 281 0.40Ceumercial, year 30 381 0.51

t, Peak load projections presented in the CEY report for residentialuse were converted by the technical team to kWh/Ionth/consumerand load factor values utilizing consistent criteria for allscenarios studied.

k/ The orfignal CEY report presented data for long-range residentialuse only. First year residential loads, all productive use loads,kWh usaoe and demands were also estimated for the engineeringanalysis using consistent criteria for all scenarios studied.

sourcg: Nission assessment.

- 56 -

Page 3 of 10

TAEt I - ESH4P ProJections - Rsidential UW Yea 1

MM ?TAIL 15s KMI/INQTKCONSUN LF a 0.20REA * 0.31(1500 cofhsurs)

Special --- 937 96.6NO.CNS. n KM D NO.CGNS. kV DEMAN NO.CONS. KM OEA

I 043 55 6.4 1050 tO83 0.8 60 6.9 1100 135 1.1 65 7.5 1150 1t87 1.4 70 8.0 1200 1238 1.5 75 8.5 IS0 1349 1.7 60 9.0 1400 141t 1.6 85 9.5 1500 154It 1.9 90 10.0 1600 16412 2.0 95 10.5 1700 175i3 2.1 10 11.0 1800 1s814 2.2 11o 12.1 1900 19515 2.3 120 l3.1 2000 20516 2.4 130 14.1 2100 21517 2.5 140 15.1 2200 226t8 2.6 154 16.1 2300 23619 2.7 160 17.2 2400 24620 2.8 1tO 19.2 2500 25621 2.9 too 19.2 2600 26722 3.0 190 20.2 2700 27723 3.2 200 21.3 2600 28724 3.3 220 23.3 2900 29725 3.4 240 25.3 . 3000 26 3.5 260 27.4 320 32827 3.6 280 29.4 3400 34828 3.7 300 31.5 3600 36929 3.6 320 33.5 3700 37930 1.9 340 35.6 360 36931 4.0 360 37.6 400 41032 4.1 360 39.7 4200 43033 4.2 400 41.7 4400 45034 4.3 450 46.8 4600 47135 4.4 500 51.9 400 4936 4.5 550 57.0 5000 51237 4.6 600 62.1 5500 S5336 4.7 650 67.2 6000 61439 4.8 700 72.4 6500 66540 4.9 75 77.5 7000 7164 5.1 800 92.6 7m 76744 5.3 650 87.7 8000 o1846 5.5 900 92. 6500 6948 5.7 950 97.9 9000 92150 5.9 1000 103.0 10000 1023

Lod Factor' (o. of tonsunes I kiwotcoalc ) I (km u 730)

- 57 -

Page 4 of 10

TALE 2 - ESWAP Projections - esidential Use Yesr 30

MEMI TAER 40 KtUNINOI(UCOtNSlWER LF a 0.30REA a 0.35(1500 Cofinhrs)

Specil - 30 546.5*LOuC . K om DEIl NO.cONt. KV 11AND iNLCos. KM EMD

1 0.6 55 11.4 1050 192S 1.4 60 12.4 tlOo 2015 2.0 65 13.3 ls 2107 2.5 70 14.2 1200 219a 2.7 75 1S.1 1300 2389 2.9 80 16.0 1400 256

10 3.1 05 16.9 1500 274il 3.3 90 17.0 1600 29212 3.5 95 18.7 1700 3lOI3 3.7 ' 19.6 1900 32814 3.9 110 21.4 19M 34715 4.1 120 23.3 2000 36516 4.3 130 25.1 2100 38317 4.5 140 26.9 2200 40118 4.7 1S 28.7 230 41919 4.9 160 30.5 2400 43720 5.1 170 32.3 2500 4621 5.2 180 34.2 2600 41422 5.4 190 3.0 2700 49223 5.6 200 37.8 2900 51024 5.6 220 41.4 2900 .52825 6.0 240 45. 3000 54626 6.2 260 48.7 3200 59327 6.3 . 280 52.3 3400 61926 6.5 300 56.0 3600 65529 6.7 320 59.6 3700 67430 6.9 340 63.2 800 69231 7.1 360 66.9 400 n2632 7.3 360 70.5 420 76533 7.4 400 74.1 4400 0134 7.6 450 63.2 4600 63735 7.8 50 92.3 400 67436 8.0 50 101.4 5000 91037 6.2 600 110.5 550 1OO36 8.3 650 119.5 00 109239 0.5 70 126.6 6500 11620 6.7 750 137.7 700 127342 9.1 60 146. 7500 136444 9.4 650 155.9 000 145546 9.6 900 145.0 6500 154648 10.2 950 174.0 9000 163750 10.5 1000 103.1 10000 1616

Loa Fatw * (No. of Coswnrs x kohleo/coes) I (kVt 7301

58 -

Page 5 of 10

TAML 3 - ESW Projetions - Prodtctive Use Yea l

DERAD TABLES 141 MHUI/ONTHICONSU(ER LF a 0.40REA a 0.41(1500 consurs)

Special 202 100.9lO,COlS. KV DENAND NO.CONs. Km DEMAND NO.CONS. kV DENAND

l 1.5 55 30.2 1050 S083 3.7 60 32.1 1100 5325 5.3 65 35.1 1150 5567 6.6 tO 3I.5 1200 S808 1.2 75 39.9 1300 6289 7.8 80 42.3 1400 676

to 8.3 85 44.1 1500 12411 8.9 90 47.1 1600 1212 9.4 95 49.5 1700 82013 9.9 100 51.9 1s00 86814 10.4 t11 56.7 1900 91615 lO.9 120 61.5 2000 96416 11.4 130 6..3 2100 101317 11.9 140 71.1 2200 106118 12.4 l50 75.9 2300 10919 12.9 160 80.7 2400 115720 13.4 170 85.5 2500 120521 13.8 Lo 90.S 2600 125322 14.3 190 95.1 2700 130123 14.8 200 99.9 2900 134924 15.3 220 109.5 2900 .139725 15.8 240 119.1 3000 144526 16.3 260 128.7 3200 154127 16.0 280 138.3 3400 163721 17.2 300 147.9 3600 173329 *17.7 320 157.5 3700 lst830 18.2 340 167.1 3900 182931 18.7 360 176.8 4000 192532 19.2 30 186.4 4200 202133 19.7 400 196.0 4400 2t1734 20.1 450 220.0 460 221335 20.6 500 244.0 400 230934 21.1 550 268.0 5000 240537 21.6 600 292.0 5500 264636 22.1 650 316.0 6000 280639 22.5 700 340.1 6500 312640 23.0 750 344.t 7000 33642 24.0 800 388.1 7500 360644 25.0 850 412.1 8000 384446 25.9 900 436.1 8500 408748 26.9 950 460.1 9000 432750 27.9 1000 44.2 10000 4807

Load FCtor * (No. of Conwurs x khlwh/cons) I (kw u 730)

_ 59 -

Page 6 of 10

TABLE 4- ESWP Projections - Productive Uo Year 30

E1ND TABLS 203 KMN/NO CON8U LF * 0.47REA a 0.4211500 consuns)

Special - 672 400.2NG.COS. Km DE"NA NO.CmS. Kl OAD NI0.CQS. K DENAND

I 1.9 55, 37.1 1050 6233 4.6 60 40.0 1100 6525 6.5 65 43.0 1150 6927 8.1 70 45.9 1200 7118 9.8 75 48.8 1300 7709 9.5 so 51.8 1400 829

10 10.2 85 54.7 1500 887ll 10.8 90 57.7 1600 94612 11.5 95 60.6 1700 100513 12.1 100 63.6 1800 106414 12.7 110 69.4 1900 112315 13.3 120 75.3 2000 118216 14.0 130 81.2 2100 124117 14.6 140 97.1 2200 129918 15.2 ISO 93.0 2300 135819 IS.9 160 98.9 2400 141720 16.4 170. 104.8 2500 147621 17.0 180 110.6 2600 153522 17.6 190 116.5 2700 159423 18.2 200 122.4 2800 165324 18.B 220 134.2 2900 171125 19.3 240 146.0 30 117026 19.9 260 157.7 3200 188827 20.5 290 169.5 3400 200626 21.1 300 181.3 3600 212329 21.7 320 193.0 3700 218230 22.3 340 204.8 380 224131 22.9 360 216.6 4000 235932 23.5 380 228.3 4200 247133 24.1 400. 240.1 4400 259434 24.? 450 269.5 4600 271235 25.3 500 299.0 4800 283036 25.9 550 329.4 5000 294737 26.4 600 357.8 5500 324238 27.0 650 387.2 6000 3S3639 27.6 70 416.7 6500 383040 29.2 750 446.1 7000 412442 29.4 800 475.5 7500 441944 30.6 850 505.0 8000 471346 31.6 900 534.4 8500 500?48 32.9 950 563.0 9000 530150 34.1 1000 593.2 10000 5890

Load Factor * (No. of Consuwen x kuhlno/coas)I (k/ x 7301

_ 60 -

Page 7 of 10

TAILE 5 CEY Projetions ResIidetil Uon Yew I

NUAO TALES 28 KNIOI/TlThCUIIIIER LF a 044RE a 0.34(1500 consrt

Special- 2000 225.3*O.Ce . KMl 0 NO.CONS. Ku DENAND NO.CON. Kg DERAN

1 0.4 55 7.1 1050 1193 0.9 60 7.6 1100 1245 1.2 65 8.2 1150 1307 1.6 70 8.9 1200 136a 1.7 75 9.3 1300 1479 1.8 s0 9.9 1400 1S810 1.9 95 10.4 1500 169a1 2.1 90 l1.0 1600 t1o2 2.2 95 11.6 1700 19213 2.3 100 12.t t180 20314 2.4 110 13.2 1900 21415 2.5 120 14.4 2000 22516 2.7 130 15.5 2100 23?17 2.9 140 16.6 2200 2481o 2.9 150 17.7 2300 25919 3.0 160 19.9 2400 27020 3.1 170 20.0 2500 28121 3.2 190 21.1 2600 29322 3.3 190 22.2 2700 30423 3.5 200 23.3 2800 31524 3.6 220 25.6 2900 .32625 3.7 240 2.8 3000 3326 3.8 260 30.1 3200 36027 3.9 280 32.3 3400 38228 4.0 300 34.6 360 40529 4.1 320 36.6 3700 41630 4.3 340 39.1 3600 42731 4.4 360 41.3 4000 45032 4,5 380 43.5 4200 4723 4.6 400 45.0 4400 4934 4.7 450 51.4 460 51t35 4.8 S0 57.0 480 5036 4.9 550 62.6 5000 56237 5.0 600 69.2 550 1038 5.2 650 73.8 6 67439 5.3 70 79.4 500 73040 5.4 750 85.1 7000 784a 5.6 S0 90.7 00 4344 5.0 ISO 96.3 00 89946 6.1 900 101.9 050 9554 4.3 950 107.5 9000 tOll50 6.5 1000 113.1 1000 1123

Lod Factor * (o. of Cosuus a kwh/eso/cons) / tk a 730)

_61 _ h I1Pagp 8 of 10

TALE 6 - CEY Projections - Residetial Us Vow 30

0M01 tABLES 75 KWH/NONYThCONSWflU LF * 0.41EA 0.30

(1500 coners)special 60 1510.0

NO.CONS. Kg CNA NO-.CONS. KU DEAN NOCONS. KU DELNO1 0.8 55 15.7 to1 2643 1.9 60 16.9 1tOO 2765 2.9 45 19.2 1150 2897 3.4 T7 L9.4 1200 3019 3.7 75 20.7 1300 3269 4.0 a0 21.9 1400 351

1o 4.3 95 23.2 1500 376It 4.6 90 24.4 1600 40112 4.9 95 25.7 1700 4261 S. I to0 26.9 1900 45114 5.4 110 29.4 1900 476iS 5.7 120 31.9 2000 50116 5.9 130 34.4 2100 52517 6.2 140 36.9 2200 5501s 6.4 150 39.4 2300 57519 6.7 160 41.9 2400 60020 6.9 lO 44.4 2500 62521 7.2 180 46.9 2600 65022 7.4 190 49.4 2700 67523 7.7 200 51.9 2900 70024 7.9 220 56.9 2900 72525 8.2 240 61.9 3000 75026 8.4 260 66.8 3200 90027 9.7 290 71.9 , 3400 94929 9.9 300 76.8 3600 89929 9.2 320 81.9 3700 92430 i.5 340 96.7 3800 94931 9.7 360 91.1 4000 9932 10.0 380 96.7 4200 104933 lO.2 400 101.7 4400 10"34 10.5 450 114.2 4600 11435 10.7 500 126.6 4800 119936 11.0 550 139.1 5000 12437 11.2 600 151.5 5500 137338 11.5 650 164.0 6000 149939 11.7 700 176.5 6500 162240 12.0 750 190.9 7000 174742 12.5 D0O 201.4 7500 18t144 13.0 650 213.9 6Q0 1946 13.5 90 226.3 9500 21214 13.9 950 238.8 9000 224550 14.4 1000 251.2 .1000 2495

Load Factor a (No. of Consues x kuhluolcs) (kw ( 7301

62 -

Page 9 of 10

TABLE 7 - CEY ProJetios - Prodictive Us Ywa I

DERAnD TABLES 261 KIN/MONTN/CONSUMER LF a 0.40REA a 0.44I1500 consiers)

Special --- 404 394.4NO.CONS. KU DEMNDO NO.CONS. KU DEdAND NO.CONS. KU DEMaND

I 3.0 55 60.3 1050 10133 7.5 60 65.1 1100 10615 10.6 65 69.9 1150 10t67 13.2 70 74.6 1200 11568 14.4 75 79.4 1300 12529 15.5 GO 84.2 1400 134810 16.6 85 89.t 1500 144311 17.6 90 93.8 1600 l53912 18.7 95 98.6 17OO 163513 19.7 100 103.4 10OO 173114 20.7 110 112.9 1900 182615 21.7 120 122.5 2000 192216 22.7 130 132.1 2100 201817 23.7 140 141.7 2200 211418 24.7 150 151.2 2300 220919 25.6 160 160.8 2400 230520 26.6 170 170.4 2500 240121 21.6 180 180.0 2600 249622 28.6 190 189.5 2700 259223 29.5 200 199.1 2800 268824 30.5 220 218.2 2900 278425 31.5 240 237.4 3000 287926 32.4 260 256.5 3200 307127 33.4 280 275.7 3400 326228 34.4 300 294.B 3600 345429 35.3 320 314.0 3700 354930 36.3 340 333.1 3800 364531 37.3 360 352.3 4000 383732 38.2 380 371.4 4200 402833 39.2 400 390.5 4400 421934 40.1 450 439.4 4600 441135 41.1 500 486.3 4800 460236 42.1 550 534.1 5000 479437 43.0 600 582.0 5500 527238 44.0 650 629.9 6000 575139 44.9 70 677.7 6500 623040 45.9 750 725.6 7000 670842 47.8 900 773.4 7500 718744 49.7 850 821.3 8g00 766546 51.7 900 869.2 8500 814448 53.6 950 917.0 9000 862350 55.5 1000 964.9 10000 9590

Lod Factor a (No. of Consuurs x kuh/no/cans) Ikv u 7301

63 -

Page 10 of 10

TABLE 8 - CEY Projections - Productive Ui Yeaw 30

OEMND TABLES 381 KNH/ONCTH/CONSUHER Lf a 0.51R£A a 0.46(1500 consurs)

Special -.. 1344 1376.3NO.CONS. KM DEMOND NO.CON8. KU DENAND NO.CONS. Ku DENAND

1 3.2 55 64.1 1050 10773 7.9 60 69.2 1100 11285 11.3 65 74.3 1l50 11797 14.1 70 79.4 1200 12308 15.3 75 84.5 1300 13319 16.5 80 89.6 1400 143310 17.6 85 94.7 1.500 1535I I 18.8 90 99.7 1600 163712 19.9 95 104.8 1700 173913 20.9 100 109.9 1800 184014 22.0 110 120.1 1900 194215 23.1 120 130.3 2000 204416 24.1 130 140.5 2100 214617 25.2 140 150.7 2200 224818 26.2 150 160.8 2300 234919 27.3 160 171.0 2400 245120 28.3 170 181.2 2500 255321 29.3 180 191.4 2600 265522 30.4 l90 201.5 2700 275123 31.4 200 211.7 2800 285824 32.4 220 232.1 2900 296025 33.5 240 252.4 3000 306226 34.5 260 272.9 3200 326627 35.5 280 293.2 3400 346928 36.5 300 313.5 3600 367329 37.6 320 333.9 3700 377530 38.6 340 354.2 3800 387631 39.6 360 374.6 4000 408032 40.6 380 395.0 4200 428333 41.7 400 415.3 4400 448734 42.7 450 466.2 4600 469135 43.7 500 511.1 4800 489436 44.7 550 U68.0 5000 509837 45.7 600 619.9 5500 560738 46.8 650 669.6 6000 611639 47.8 700 720.7 6500 662540 48.8 750 77.1 7000 713442 50.9 800 822.5 7500 764344 52.9 950 873.4 8000 815246 54.9 900 924.3 8500 86614 57.0 950 975.2 9000 917050 59.0 1000 1026.1 10000 10188

Load Factor a (No. of Consueru x kwh/so/cons) / 1kw i 730)

- 64 -

ANNEX 2Page 1 of 2

UNM1ZED caMsr E STIllS

US$

1. Principal LinesThree-phase, #2/0 ACSR conductor 8,000/kmThree-phase, #1/0 ACSR conductor 7,000/kmThree-Phase, #4 ACSR conductor 5,000/kmSingle-phase, #4 ACSR conductor 3,000/km

2. Taps and branch circuitsSingle-phase #4 ACSR conductor 3,000/km

3. Secondary lines, single-phase orThree-phase; average cost 3,100/km

4. Meters and service drops 41.50 each

5. Transformers 60/kva

6. Hydroelectric plant, installed 2,000/kW

7. Engineering and Administration 15 %(% of estimated construction cost)

8. Contingencies 10 % (% of estimatedconstruction cost)

Source Mission assessment.

- 65 -

Page 2 of 2

a. Kilometers of secondaty lines are determined by dividing the total number of consumers bySO (estimated number of connections per kilometer of line). This is equivalent to 5consumers per span and spans of 100 meter length.

b. Quantity of residential meters and service drops is equal to the number of residentialconsumers. The quantity of productive use meters and service drops is assumed to equalto 33.3% of all productive use consumers. It is assumed that 66.7% of productive useconsumers are very small and will utilize meters and service drops provided under theresidential connection category.

c. Total kVA transformer capacity installed is estimated to be equal to twice the projecteddemand in kilowatts. Thus a demand of 1,000 kW would require 2,000 kva of transformercapacity at $60.00 per kVA, installed. Installed capacity of two times the demand is anacceptable normal practice.

d. For each of the alternatives presented, there are 132 kilometers of primary three-phase orsingle-phase lines. Differences in cost result from varying the type of line or size ofconductor.

e. The method used to estimate costs of the several alternatives utilizing unit costs andconstant methods of deriving associated secondary line, metering and transformer costs isdesigned to eliminate favoritism in the estimating process. An adequate comparison betweenalternatives and an adequate total cost estimate will result.

ANN3X 3Page 1 of 4

LlERIIIVE la - Y SSTEN VTAGE DROP SEAGROYUNSA,

SECTIKula aUIEs CONCENTRATED LINE V, A1 E DRWSWO LOAeD VItIN DEYO EWIV. KUR/N.O PEAK WITHIN BEYOND EW01. PEAK TOTAL CONDUCTOR NO. VOTAGE LENTH TIS ATEND ED SECTION SECTION SECTION EON KM SECTION SECTION SECION KN KM SIZE PASS KY FACLOR N1. kVs KNt SECTION TOTAL POINT

e fle nea fa~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~--- - ----

A 3 1034 5016 5N3 75 1381 221 1123 1234 1264 2U45 1210 3 14.4 0.110 26 61.9 I. 8.1 3I I1 276 30 160 75 44 65 5 38 47 91 2/0 3 14.4 0.118 12 1.1 0.1 8.2 e1

B C 1166 3542 4126 75 1030 263 796 928 953 1953 12/0 3 14.4 0.118 16 31.1 3.7 11.9 Ct O 145B 1872 2531 75 633 296 419 567 58 1218 1210 3 14.4 0.11 21 25.6 3.0 14.9 DO *1 106 176. 229 75 59 22 38 49 59 11 1210 3 14.4 0.1190 0.9 0.1 15.0 Di

* E 24 1373 1390 75 349 5 306 309 323 6b2 U210 3 14.4 0.118 12 9.1 1.0 IS.? EE F 206 II 221 75 57 48 27 51 60 117 1210 3 14.4 0.119 16 1.9 0.2 16.2 F

RESIEKNTIAL USE U 7 5 i LOA FACTO a 0.41PMCIVE UKE IUN tI CN 361 ; L FACO a 0.51

ANNEX 3Page 2 of 4

SILEMTIVE lb - CE? SISTE VIT EIWt L VOLTAGE DRP SHEET

sEcitE CONSU_S cEUTRa LINE VOLTAGE DROW

SOIICE LOAU VtHhI I MV. MUNHI PEA VITNII KB EWIV. PEAK TOTAL CONMOCR NO. VOLTAGE LENGTH THIS AT

ED ENI SECTIW SECTION SECTION Et _E K SECTION 1 E0T1ON SECTION KU Kg SIZE PPRSES KY FACTOR KNS. K x YN SECTION TOTAL POINT

B 3 4m2 2r0 2754 40 502 110 S W 367 86 1210 3 14.4 0.118 26 22.6 2.7 2.7 a

8 Bl 136 IS 4 40 17 32 3 19 16 33 *210 3 14.4 0.118 12 0.4 0.0 2.7 91

* C C54 1n7 2063 0 376 132 3" 464 273 6546210 3 14.4 0.118 16 10.5 1.2 3.9C

c e 659 936 1266 0 232 146 210 264 172 4040210 3 14.4 0.118 21 8.5 1.0 4.90

* DI 53 a 115 0 22 It 19 25 19 41 8210 3 14.4 0.118 8 0.3 0.0 4.9 01

* E 12 6- * .6 40 128 3 153 155 96 224 210 3 14.4 0.118 12 2.7 0.3 5.3 E

E F 103 9 111 40 22 24 13 25 19 41 1210 3 14.4 0.118 16 0.7 0.1 5.3 F

NESIUENTIAL USE KAUNIA IIO ISUIINR 40 LOAD FACT a 0.30PIIVE USE _ 203t LODN FACTR a 0.47

Page 3 of 4

MLTITIVE 11 - 5m SISEN 311 51 LOU VOLTHGE DRIP SHEE

SECTION C CoICERATEI LINE VOLTAE DROPSOU_M LOA V11N1 BEYOID EDU1V. K/I EK VITHIN BISM EOUIV. PEAK TOTAL CODTOR NO. VOLTASE LENGTH THIS ATIN ED SECTIOI SECTION SECTION C KUE l SECTION SETION SECTION KU KU SIZE PHASES KY FACTOR Kl. KM KN SECTION TOTAL POINT

A 5 492 250 2154 40502 110 562 f1l 36 9 94/0 3 14.4 0.1" 26 22.6 3.2 3.2 B9 Di 1n 15 8 0 17 32 3 19 16 33 4 1 14.4 0.903 12 0.4 0.4 3.5 81

I C 56 1771 2063 40 376 132 390 464 278 6 411/0 3 14.4 0.140 16 10.5 1.5 4.6 CC D 659 936 1266 40 2 140 210 204 172 404 04 3 14.4 0.301 21 9.5 2.6 7.2 D* 01 53 0 115 40 22 11 19 25 19 4104 1 14.4 0.903 B 0.3 0.3 7.S 11

D E 12 6 695 40 129 3 153 155 96 224 14 3 14.4 0.301 12 2.7 0.9 0.3 EE F 103 S9 II 40 22 24 13 25 19 410 4 1 14.4 0.903 16 0.7 0.6 8.9 F

KSIlfStilEltL USE l aRliUlHla s40 LO FACTOR a 0.30PNTlYE US£ :IIOIUN1TICONSIB a 203 $ FACtOR a 0.41

maNES 3Page 4 of 4

ALTETIVE III - ESIW SISTER NIT" ESN1 LOAn HYDRECTIC PLT VOIASE OP SHEET

SECTION t 6DIUHERL VOLTAGE DROPSnu LW DItHIN VEW IVN E IIIUM K MITNIN BEYOND EDUIV. PEAK TOTAL CONDUTOR NO. VOTAGE LENGTH THIS ATEND END SECTION SECTION SECTION NI SECTION SECTION SECTION K1 KV SIZE PHSS KY FACTOR KNS. KM x z SECTION TOTAL POINT

M YL FMN =11NNANI

A B 492 1572 l1l1 4 332 110 352. 407 244 576 4 3 14.4 0.301 26 15.0. 4.5 4.5 B3 BI 139 15 94 0 17 32 3 19 14 344 1 14.4 0.903 12 0.4 0.4 4.9 1

I t 584 335 1127 0 206 132 195 251 152 359 4 3 14.4 0.301 16 5.7 1.7 6.2CC D 65 0 330 0 61 148 0 74 4 109 14 3 14.4 0.301 21 2.3 0.7 6.9 3'

SUPLY FRM PFMI SITE AT LA ASUNTAs

FM T 12 229 235 40 44 3 51 5336 90 64 1 14.4 0.903 12 1.0 0.9 0.93E Di 53 a 115 40 22 11 19 25 19 4104 1 14.4 0.903 B 0.3 0.3 1.2 91

PLW F 103 S9 1ll 22 24 19 41 19 414 4 1 14.4 0.903 16 0.7 0.6 0.6 F

ESIDENTIAL USE 1UII /CIViN * N a LOAD FCTOR * 0.30PRDCT1K USE lK INlONTNCONU1EIM 203a LOD FACTOR * 0.47

AT TIE PLANT SITE OF ̂AS T

1. OF NESIKENTIAL CNNS x 527 ; 97 U OENIIM. I PICIVE USE CNSDR a 113 ; 74 DELN

TME POULAION OF LA AMT IS CSIDE LAE E0 TO D C TRE-PHASES OF GETIN PA LOADS.SINKlE-MlSE LINS NLY EITED OUTSIE F LI AMA POLION.

- 70

Page 1 of 1

TRA -MSF0MOa

SIUS-STACOW A4EULADOR

SVOLT4A PWGTOO K NGULACIOrJ= ~~~~~CON COMPIWSADOO

SU- STPAISNS aON *o +

PRIMER ULT MO4 ~~~TnAMSFORMA00R TnANSFORMAO

C140

40

335 volta bj¢

I-3

~13

0 I;.. e | ll \t|1II^izide t^ 6. i t6 volto tle L8"- 330 \ { 5.4%)

W . _ VAPIACION VISTA< § s ) \ _ R~~z OP EL PRIMER

0) 125 . I _ J. tlgs

O~~~r §,L_Ji §§ 3.1 %)

325 CAItAD 6.-VOLTAJI VAR CO. V

IN CL~~~~~~~

TRANSFORMADOR I Verlelom VisteCARGA P9SAOA Pot @ Ultime

lJuorlei

llS ...

PERFIL DE VOLTAJES PARA CARSA PESAOA Y CARGA LIGERA

MUESTRA EL USO 01 REGULADOR DE VOLTAJE CON ETAPAS * 10%

71 -

ASPage 1 of 4

1 IMA=E KMOP OF E:NGiINEE SERVIC;ES

The foilowing outlines, as a minimum, an estimate for a prospective scope of engineering servicesrequired for any project implementation. Th*, following estimate was developed at the request ofUNFDAC.

L Eld Investipio

a. Field trip is estimated at fourteen (14) days. Additional field time might be requiredsubject to conditions.

b. Investigate and assess local wood pole strengths, sizes, and avaiability. Evaluatetreating process, testing, and treatment plant capability. Determine otherengineering properties of the available poles.

C. Assess local concrete pole fabrication, testing, and availability. Determine productionplant capability. Determine other engineering properties of the avaible poles.

d. Assess whether crossarms are avaiable localy. Determine the sizes, strengths,treatment, and other engineering properties of the available crossarms.

e. Evaluate Cooperative Electrica Yunps (CEY) standard materials and consuctionstandard drawings, conductor and other materials.

f Ascertain guy anchorage, soi0 and rock conditions.

g. Acertain the avaiabflity of pole transportation, excavation, and constructionequipment.

h. Determine representative span lengths suitable for the terrain.

i Establish design temperature range for the area.

j. Determine local labor, transportation, and material costs.

1I. DAiL

a. Adapt conductor designs based on:

1. USA National Electrical Safety Code (NESC) light loading ditict.

2 Grade C constuction

-72^

Page 2 of 4

3. ALCOA sag and tension limits

4. Temperatures establihed by field investgation.

b. Conductor desig nring spans:

1. Two for #1/0 (6/1 ACSR) Raven

2. Two for #4 (7/1 ACSR) Swanate

3. Include information for range of span lengths determined during fieldinvestigation.

C. Provide long deadend span conductor information for #1/0 and #4 ACSR to allowfield desig/staking of indrvidual long spans. Sag and tension limits (initial and final)for loading and temperature conditions and the epoed range of spans determinedduring field invesgation.

1L Dsuadn J4@Lne le;n

a. Provide the following based on U.S. Department of Agriculture Rural ElectrificationAdministation (REA) Specifiations and Drawings for 14.4/24.9 kV LineConstructon (REA Form 803). Engineering design is based on the assumption thatsuitable wood poles wi be available for the total project. If any concrete or metalsructures or specil dsrutures are required for the dtribution lines, the estimatedegineering scope of services and crrespnding compensation will be revisedaccrdingy.

b. STAKING TABLES for ruling spans seected for #1/0 and #4 conductor. Minimumdearances based on NESC requirements

1. Rural pelestian areas: 2.9 meters to neutral and 4.4 meters to phase.

2. Over roads: 4.7 meters to neutral and 5.6 meters to phase.

3. Include a provision for addition of secondary 240-volt conductos

4. Ilude uplift factors

c. }GUY LEAD TABLES for selected guy/anchor combinations, for 3-phase L# 1/0 and#4 ACSR, sowndaiy underbid, and secondaiy only lines and long deadend spans.

X73 .

Page 3 of 4

d. POLE STRENGTH TABLES for maximum span lengths determined by pole typeand strength. For use with 3-phase #1/0 and #4 ACSR, 1-phase #4 ACSR, andlong deadend spans. Includes span reduction factors to allow small angles withoutgus and anchors

e. MAXIMUM SPAN LIMIT BASED ON CONDUCTOR SEPARATION fortandard pole-top asmbly stuctur and special long span s ues, including

altitude correction factors Also for ZROLW type configuration changes (changingfrom horizontal to vertial conguration within a span).

f INSULATOR ASSEMBLY STRENGTH TABLE AND CROSSARM STRENGTHTABLE for maxdmum angle to be supported by standard insuator assemblies basedon grade of construction, span length, conductor tensions, and loading Determinecrossarm strength required for line tension and maximum vertical loads.

g. INTIAL AND FINAL CONDUCIR STRINGING SAG AND TENSIONTABLES for all conductors and ruling spans selected, including long spans.

h. GUIDES for the use of staking information included in Section m. F. through mF.

i GUIDES for stringing sagging, measuring sag, and recording sag measurementsduring construction for use with guides included in m. F. Stringing tensions for longspas wiM be provided after stuctur are staked and actual horizontal and veicaldtances are measured.

IV. [&bis mLnkle Stking

ln-field primary and secondary line design incuding location of each primary and secondaryline pole (stakig) wi be performed. The size and location of the distrbution transformer

will be determined. Minimal line of sight dearing for the centerline and pole locationsuvey wi be performed.

V. lZeX ngp Wn49d" and SpcW Documents

j. Prepartion, with material breakdown, of specil construction drawings not includedin REA Form 803 which would satisfy contruction requirements for long spancosrion.

k. Determine material spefition rements for inclusion in United Nations biddocuments ig procedures and languap requirements so as to comely withfunding institution requirements.

.74-

AINNEX Page 4 of 4

VI. Other EQjjngA gActivi

a. PWpare constucton cost estimate, time schedule for line stakdng and other fieldengineering activities, Invitation-for-Bid documents covering materials and labor, andother items as required for award of construction contract

VII Ctructnagw= or JWmd= After Award

a. After award of construction contrat a review of the contractor's work plan, materialprocwrement procedures, consution schedule, etc. will be performed. Duringconstuton, and monthly progress reports will be prepared and submitted.Construcion will be monitored and inpected on a periodic basis as deemednecessary by the enginees

M2: The Estimted Scope of Engineering Consulting Services as descrbd above presentsrequirements that might be reqired for Phase II subject to (as yet to be established)Terms of Reference. The scope of services for engineering design or consulting serviesfor Phase II could change depending on the requirements of the Terms of Reference.The total cost for phase II engineering would be calulated accordingly.

75 -

Page 1 of 2

MARGINAL COST CALCULATION

L Marginal cost at bulk level (High Voltage) 1/

USS 8.90/kW/monthUS$ 0.014/kWh.month

IL Total demand for year 1 of 197 kW and a total consumption of 510,000 kWh in year 1;figures for year 30 are 946 kW total demand and 3,078,000 kWh/month; figures foryears 2-29 were interpolated using a linear regression.

II. Average marginal cost for year 1:

[(8.90 $/kW * 12 months.year * 197 kW) + (510,000 kWh.year * 0.014 $/kWh)]/510,000kWh.year

= US$ 0.055/kWh

IV. Average marginal cost for year 30:

[(8.90 $/kW * 12 months.year * 946 kW) + (3,078,000 kWh.year * 0.014 $/kWh)]/3,078.000

= US$ 0.047/kWh

V. Table A presents margil cost estimates for years 1-30.

1/ (from ESMAP Report "Basis for the Formuation of a National Eneriw Plan', November1987):

~~ -~~-a

I~~~~ I

~~~~~~~~~~~~~ -

.77 .

AM= 7

CARACITRISTICAS DE LA TARIFA RESIMENCIAL 1/TARIFA RESIDENCIAL CODIGO TARIFA% BOLI

Pam los primeros 0 Kwh 0.0000 Cargo minimo:1S933Para los siguientes 25 Kwh 0.0312Para los siguientes 999 Kwh 0.0520Para los siguientes 999 Kwh 0.0520Pam los siguientes 999 Kwh 0.0520Pan el resto complementario 0.0520

TARIFA UTlLIADA PARA LOS USOS PRODUC1IVOS 11CODIGO TARIFA: BOL2

Pan los prineros 0 Kwh 0.0000 Cargo minimo:21700Para los siguientes 50 kwh : 0.0563Pan los siguientes 999 Kwh 0.0433Pan los siguientes 999 Kwh 0.0433Pan los siguientes 999 Kwh : 0.0433Para el resto complementario 0.0433

1/ Tariff struce applied In the DAM model calculations.

78 -

ANNES Page 1 of 2

DESCRIPTION OF THE RURAL ELECTRIFCATION PLANNING MODEL(DEMAND ASSESSMENT MODEL DEVELOPED BY NRECA)

1. The Demand Assessment Model (DAM) was developed by a team of NRECA staff andconsultants, including rural electrification engineers, economists, sociologists and plannersbetween 1988 and 1990. The model is considered a practical planning tool for evaluating ruralelectrification projects and aims to meet objectives of formal correctness, field applicability and"user-friendliness". The model is therefore being continually improved.

2. The model was develop to assist utilities from countries participating in USAID NRECA'sCentral American Rural Electrification Support program in the selection of potentialelectrification sites. Each county was faced with a large number of potential sites and limitedamounts of funds to conduct rural electrification programs. There was a need to provide theutilities with a means for selecting sites with the greatest relative economic benefit potentialand give them an idea of each project's financial feasibility.

3. The model was first tested in Guatemala, l'.en in Belize and El Salvador. The first applicationsshowed that it was relatively easy to obtain the necessary information, especially if the objectivewas to rank projects within the same given area. Nearly 100 rural electrification sites inGuatemala, El Salvador and Bolivia have been evaluated using the modeL For stand-aloneapplications, data quality requirements increased significantly. Electric utilities in El Salvadorand then Guatemala raised the issues and provided the data to refine many of the model's"systems parameters."

4. The model, currently written in D-Base, allows for the financial and economic characterizationof a project and its ramifications. It provides the framework for estimating construction,operating and maintenance, service and margnal costs of electricity, transmission anddistribution losses in a language accesible to rural electrification planners. Financial benefitsare estimated using utlity tariffs, estimated kWh consumption levels and users' contnbutions,when applicable; economic benefits are estimated based on the number of residential users andthe number and types of commercial, or "productive end-users" of electricity. Costs andbenefits are calculated in present terms using a discretionary discount rate for the purpose ofestimating Net Present Value and Benefit/Cost ratio. Internal Rates of Return are estimatedusing succesive approxinmations.

5. The models inputs fall in two categories: system parameters and project data. Systemparameters are those which normally do not vary within a given country. Typically, tariffs,existing productive end-uses, construction costs, operation and maintenance costs, costs ofconnection and the marginal cost of electricity do not vary within the same country. Project-specific parameters include type of line, type of terran, type of pole, kilometers of line by type,improvements up to the line connection point, number of transformers and, occassionally,additional generating capacity. A complete listing of parameters and "screen-dumps" can beobtained from NRECA.

79.

Page 2 of 2

6. Outputs include NPV, B/C, IRR and tables showing number of consumers by type (residentialand productive end-users), total yearly kWh sold by tpe of user and corresponding kVAdemand, construction costs, operation and maintenance costs, generating costs and loses, costof Inprovements up to the start of the line, economic and fiancial benefits. Summary tablespresent the financial and economic indicators in a condensed form.

80 -

ANgNEX 9Page 1 of 18

A METHODOLOGY FOR ESTMATING ELECIRICITY'S RESIDENTIALAND PRODUCTIVE END USE ECONOMIC BENEFiTS AND ITS APPLICATION

IN THE ASUNTA VALLEY RURAL ELECTIFICATION PREFEASIBILI'IY STUDY

IntroductionThis annex outlines the methodological approach used for estimating electricity's residential andproductive end-use economic benefits, with special emphasis on field applications, using themethodolog known as the Demand Assessment Model (DAM). The specific approach used inthe Asunta Valley study is discussed throughout the Annex In addition, enhanced approaches notnecessarily applied in this case study are also discussed in this annex. The methodology wasprepared by Messrs. Villagran and Orozco of the NRECA with technical assistance from ESMAP.

* 81 -

AN9XPage 2 of 18

RESIDENTIL BENEFITS:YEAR 1

For year one, residential benefits are calcuated on the basis of substituting electricity for currentenergy sources used in residential lighting and computing a total "willingness to pay" for electityas a measure of benefits obtained by residential consumers

Substitution benefits are calculated as savings in energy costs of an equivalent amount of kilolumen-hours/month produced using electricity intgeadf the alternate fuel (see area B in Graph 1) DlIa measure of the "consumer surplus," arising from the concept that if lighting senvices were availableat prices between those of the alternate fuel and the electric tariff there would be consumers wiingto pay those prices and consume intermediate quantities of ldlolumen-hours/month (see area D inGraph 1). The final component of consumers' total "willingness to pay" for electricity (areas A +Cl in Graph 1) is calculated as the electric tariff applied to projected kWh consumption.

The curve "Dem(k)" represents the non-electric energy demand function. "A + BW is the currenttotal cost for basic quantity of light in kilolumen-hours/month "Q(O)" at a set price "P(k)r in$/kilolulmen-hour. Substituting electricity for an eqivalent lighting level would cost 'A," yieldingcost savings of "B."

Since electricity demand is not represented by the same curve as the alternate fuel function (userswill more than replae current energy demand), an electricity demand function "Dem(e)' is defined.At a price of electricity OP(e)" the quantity demanded wil be "Q(1)" kilolulmen-hours/month fora total expenditure of "A + C1." This expenditure is the consumer tariff for the newly providedelectric service.

The consumer surplus is estimated by the triangle "D," assuming the existence of a "Demand forLighting Services function passing through points X and Y.

Let:

P(k - Average price of alternate fuel per unit of lighting ($/kilolumenhour)

P(e) u Average price of electricity per unit of lighting (Sldolumen.hour)

Dem(k) - Demand for alternate fuel lighting services, measurig changes in the quantityof kilolulmen-hours/month as a response to changes in the price of akIlolumen-hour using the alternate fueL

*82.

Page 3 of 18

Dem(e) X Demand function for electicis lighng services, measuring changesIn the quantity of kilolumen.hours/month as a response to changesin the price of a kilolumen-hour using electricit. When electricityis introduced, people generaly consume more kilolumen-hours/monthand pay lower prices per Idlolumen-hour than was previously the caseusing alternate fuels. A new demand curve for electricity i definedto the right of the demand for lighting using the alternative fuel A'demand for lighting services curve passing through points X and Yb also postulated.

A + B - Current cost of lighting using alternate energy souroe for lighting level0(O).

A Cost of electricity to replace same lighting level

B * Savings when replacing alternate energy source with electricity forequal lighting level, Q(O).

A + Cl Total cost of electricity for lighting in year 1, ie. tariff payments forquantity Q(l).

D - Estimate of consumer surplus

[Pk Pe) * (Q1- QO)]/2

hence:

Residential Benefit A + B + Cl + D

-83 -

Page 4 ef 18

GRAPH 1

PRICE (USS/kiloIufan-how)OEM (hk

SUPPLY (hi

ESTIMATE OF DEMANDFOR UGHTING SERVICES

.......... :.... ............. ... __.................. a-

.............. ............ DEMAND FORUGHTING SERVICES

D ~~~............ ,

.................... ....... __................. ..... ... ....................... _,_ ~~~~~~...................... .. . . .Pe > ..................

_, _ - ,_ ...................

I ~~~~~~~~~OEM (.)........... :..I ..................................................

QUANTITY00 Q1 (kiloumen hourslmonth)

_ ive et..... w.. be/ t tI Clfv_

-84-

Page 5 of 18

How To

Tbe present cost of alternate fuel for current lighting levels can be determined in the target areabased on field surveys. Equivalent, or replacement, cost with elecicity 'B" can be calclated forlightng using conversion tables (see 'A Comparison of Lamps for Domestic Lighting in DevelopingCountries, World Bank Energy Se ies Paper No. 6 - van der Plas, Graff 1988).

The projected level of energy use is typically estimated using (a) utility biling information fromelectrified communities with simflar characterisics and (b) applicable tariffs. Questioningprospective consumers regarding intended energy use is also an option.

Electricity, kerosene, LPG and candle consumption for lighting in the Yungas region of Bolivia wasobtained through field surveys. This information is presented in Table 1.

Tab* I1 - ENERGY CONSWEPTION FOR DUIESTIC LIGHTING SERVICES, EJIVALENTKILOLUNEN.HOURS/N0N7H, NONTHLY EXPENDITURES AND PRICE PERKILOLUNEN-NOUR USING ELECTRICITY, KEROSENE, LPG AND CANDLES INT?E YUNGAS PIEGION OF BLIVIA

Share of Energy NonthtyPre-electrIc Consuption Uquivalent Expenditure Price

Energy Source Lighting Units/nonth KLU-Hr/Mo US$/onth US$/la-Hr

1. Candes 30% 1.8 kg 3.54 6.08 1.712. Kerosene 50% 11.1 kg 13.87 6.08 O.43. LPG 20X 7.3 kg 96.75 1.91 0.024. Electricity 0% 15.0 kAh 75.00 2.3S 0.03S. Weighted

Averag of 1-3 *- 27.35 5.25 0.19

Mtte: 1. Equivalent conwuptfin in KL-Hr was obtained from the WorldB*ank tAntry and EnerW Departmnt, 'A Carprison of Laipsfor Dometic Lightin In tDeveoping Countrfes: (Jurn 1988),p. 12.

2. The but equivatent ws used for LPG.

3. A weight of O.OS8 Wcandle ws estited.

4. Ibe on fietd survey, it was as d that domestic fightingin tho Asunta Vatley of Bolivia is currentty based on kerosene50M of the times, on LPG 20% and on candtos 30%. Thesprqportfons are used to estfite the weghted verage.

Page 6 of 18

Based on these figures, energy cost savin Is:

B = (0.19 US$/KLm-Hr - 0.03 US$/kLm-Hr) * 2735 KLm-Hr/Month - 4.38 US$/Month

The consumer surplus is:

D a (75.00 JLam-H/Month . 27.35 KLm-Hr!Montbo * 0.16 USS/KIm-Hr - 3.81 US$/Month2

And the tariff payment is: = A + Cl = 2.35 US$/month

For a total economic benefit of IOJA USS/mnlth.

Since the DAM model calculates A + Cl, only B + D, or US$ 8.19 are entered as averageresidential economic benefits for year 1.

The results are only slightly sensitive to the findings of the field survey of pre-electrification lightingsevies demand, as well as to the assumptions of fuel switching behavior. For esample, supposeinstead that the newly-electrified households were formerly using candles, kerosene and LPG in theratio 10%, 60%, 30% respectively. Then the weighted average monthly consumption figure wouldbe 37.70 KLm-Hr and the weighted average price, US$ 0.13/KLm.Hr.

The enery cost savings is then:

B - (0.13 US$/KLm-Hr - 0.03 US$/kLm-Hr) * 37.70 KLm-Hr/Month

- 3.77 US$/Month

The consumer surplus is:

D - (7.00 Klm-HroNth - 37.70 Klm.Hr/MonJi)* 0.10 US$/L-Hr - 3.73 US$/Month2

And the tarM payment irs - A + Cl1 2.35 US$/month

For a total economic benefit of 9.85 USImongthb or about 7% lower than under the previous

-86,

Page 7 of 18

RESIDENTLAL BENEFTM-FUTURE YEARS

Ddixions

Future economic benefits from residential uses are estimated as i1 benefits for year 1 pkiaincreased wilingness to pay over the years In other words, areas "AW + B' + '"D remain constantwhile ara "C grows reflecting displacements in the electricity demand curve "Dem(er (See Graph2). Since uses other than lighting wil occur, enery use is measured in energy units, such askilojoules.

The benefit of replacing basic lighting quantity demanded under the alternative fuel with electricity,'B, is attributable to each year of the anabsia since these savings occur each year the residenceis electrified. The same applies to the consumer surplus "D', provided in both cases that all energycosts remain constant in real terms over the period of the analysi

If electric tariffs or any other energy costs are deemed to increase over and above inflation ratesin any one year, areas "B and I"' need to be recalculated and the new figure used in subsequentyears.

'D" must also be recalulated if uses other than lighting are taken into account

Let:

P(k) - Price of alternate fuelP(e) 3 Price of electricityDem(k) - Demand function for alternate fuelDem(e)1.n - Demand function for electricity in future yearsA + B - Current cost of alternate energy source for lighting level Q(0)A - Cost of electricity to replace orinal hting levelB - Savingp when replacing alternate energy source with electricity for

equal original lighting level, Q(O)B+C(1) + ..C(n) - Total cost of electricity in year n for basic lighting and additional uses,

ie. wilignesto-pay for quantity 0(n).D E 1stimate of consumer surplus

hence:

Residential benefit inyear n - A + B + C(1) + C(2) +..C(n) + D

- 87 -

Page 8 of 18

How To

Fuel substitution benefit (T + DI) is calculated as defined for year 1 residential benefit. Futureyears' wllingeas-to-pay is simply future yes' tariff apied to projected kWh consumption (A +Cl...n).

ApnlinIn the Agru prefeasibiit study, an estmated 9B + DO - US$ 8.19 is entered as residentialeconomic benefit and the modd I allowed to al tariff times kWh consumption as an estimateof A + C, or wlingess to pay, each year.

I

-88 -

Page 9 of 18

.7

GRAPH 2

RESIDENTIAL BENEFITSPROJECTIONS

DO(c) o DOM()Zt D)m(,)

l00 q3 . _

Min A T B T mC ... U,waC

.. C DEMAD WI RS 1 THROUGH N

.89 -

Page 10 of 18

EXSTING PRODUCIIVE USES:ASSUMING NO INCREASE IN TOTAL ENERGY USE

Inceased entrepri profits attributable to electrcity (suppy side benefits) are calated by addingenera cost savins, bceased productt and ncased product quality estimated by comparingsimilar entreses with and without electrct (Grph 3). Shaow prices and the margina cost ofelecticity are to be used for all enerWr-related costs

GRAPH 3

L ENERGY COST REDUCIION

PRICE Short-team enersV demand cuavePER

ENERGYUNIT

P(d)A

P(e)(B2)

B1)

Q(0) ENERGY QUANTITY (Brake HP)

.90 .

ANNEX 9Page 11 of 18

Let:

P(d) - Price per energy unit (such as kilojoules) using alternate fuelP(e) Price per enery unit using electricity

A+B(1)+B(2) = Total enerV related cost in the actvity using an alternate fueLB(1) a kWh consumption * Long Run Marginal Cost/kWh) plus other supply side

costs in the activity using electricity.

B(2) = Annualied cost of electrical equipment investment by entrepreneur.

A E Energy cost savings, or the differenco between current alternate energy costand total energy-related electric energy cost.

Q(O) - Replaced energy demand (Brake HP) for cost comparative purp'ses. Thatis, Brake HP for alternate fuel activity is equivalent to Brake HP suppliedto the electrified enterprise.

Note: Ihis methodology is applicable n* when electric and alternative fuel powered activities areof slar Bra ze See end of section for Hw to and AgWLiatIin.

*91-

AHM9Page 12 of 18

EXISTING PRODUCTIVE USES:ASSUMING NO INCREASE IN TOTAL ENERGY USE

I. PRODUCTIVITY EFFECT

Enterprises using electricity often experience increased production per unit of energy used. Thisis attributed to the "formn" value of electricity. Form value is composed of electricitys characterisicsabove and beyond the sole supply of power and include: instantaneou availability, cleanliness,continuity, noise reduction, electronics and an almost infinite dosificaton of use levels withinavailable range. Th'ese characteristics, not found together in any other energy source, sometimesresult in a greater response of output to the same levels of energ use (Oraph 4).

Lt:

O(e) - Product output level from the electrified activity at equivalent brake HP inputlevel Q(O)

0(k) = Product output level in the alternate fuel activity at equivalent brake HPinput level

Q(O) = Equal energy input (Brake BP basis) level

P = Market price per unit output (assumes no change in market value of product)C(k) = Average cost curve for the alternate fuel activityC(e) Average cost cuve for the electric powered activity

Profit(k) 8 Price - production cost per unit output for alternate fuel activity

hence:

Productivitybenefit - (P- C(k)) * (O(e)1 - 0(k))

Therefore, the average cost curve for the altemative fuel activity instead of the cost curve for theelectric powered activity is used in the formula for the productivity benefit. Note that the costsavings of energy are already accounted for by the energy cost reduction calculated.

* 92 -

Page 13 of 18

GRAPH 4

EX[ST[NG PRODUCTIVE USES:PRODUCTIVITY EFFECT

. OUTPUT,

O.)1. I ,</ o(oh~~~~~~~~~o

* OQ* vr)

PR PmEAND now PUT LEVEL (1wP)

cosT.:PER

____ ____ ____ _ __ ____ ____ __ PM c (P)

C.

OM(* o()1 PS0xlOWc Q1u? EE

ifooUcfm a (P - -ao($(4) - )

Note: Bnefi i' lower shaded atea accounted for In Oraph 3,

.93 .

Page 14 of 18

EISTNG PRODUCME USES:ASSUMING NO INCREASE IN TOTAL ENERGY USE

QUALITY EFFECr

For the same reasons mentioned in the preceeding discussion of productity effects, sometimeselectrified enterprises are able to achieve higher quality level and this may allow them to chargehigher pries for their products. Examples from Central America Include seamstresses whoseembroidered aprons obtained a higher price beause consumers were wiing to pay more for whatthey perceived to be the finer work of an electric sewing machine; also, a barber shop whosecustomers paid higher prices for what they perceived to be the comfort and speed of an electrichaircut. Quality effects can be measured via price differences in products of shnilar electrified andnon electrified enterprises (see Graph 5).

Let:

P(e) . Product price of electric acdvityP(k) - Product price of alternate fuel activity

0(e) * Total output level of the electrified activity (not necessaly at comparativeBrake HIP input ltvel)

hence:

Qualitybenefit (P(e) - P(k) * 0(e)1

- 94 -

ANNE 9Page 15 of 18

GRAPH 5

EXISTING PRODUCTIVE USES:QUALITY EFFECT

PRODUCTPRICE

Pe ____ PRICE T/ELEC

Pk PICE WWO

OUTPUT LEVEL

QUA f ZCT (Pe - Pk)0 ()l

.95.-

ANNEX 9Page 16 of 18

EXISTING PRODUCrIVE USES: ASSUMING NEAR EQUIVALENT BRAKE HP ACIVITIES

The economic benefit of converdng exdsting productive-use enterprises to electricity has beensimplified in this analysis to consider only three major impacts: 1) energ cost reducton, 2)productivity effect, and 3) quality effect. The comparison must be based on smilarly-sized (inBrake HP terms) electrified and non-electrified activities even though actual energy use andproduction levels may vary. Shadow prices for energyrelated costs and the marginal cost ofelecticity are to be used in the cost comparison.

This analysis ignores the fact that most young enterprises will increase production levels andcorresponding energy use over time. Ways to make benefit estimates more dynamic over timeinclude: a) calculate increased orofits per kWh used and vary the number of kWh over time; b)switch to a 'demand side" approach to benefit estimation and let willingness to pay reflect increasedbenefits.

It also assumes a perfectly inelastic demand curve in the short run, as well as no shifts in thedemand curve as a result of adopting electricity, ie. no increased kWh sales.

Note also that only activities of similar Brake HP size should be compared to avoid effects ofeconomies of scale and provide a comparative basis for calculation of benefit.

The entrepreneur is currently spending the amount "A + B(1) + B(2)" on alternate fdel and otherenergy-related costs in Graph 3. When he switches to electricity, the cost of electric energy "B(1)'will be accounted for by the Model via line extension costs, operation and maintenance costs,marginal cost of generation and transmission (LRMC) and other supply-side costs. Therefore, tocorrectly calculate the country-wide economic benefit (and avoid counting these costs twice) onemust now only take into account B(2), or the annualized cost of electrical equipment investmentby entrepreneur.

How To

Pairs of alternate fuel land electric powered activities are identified in the field and basic businesscost data including energy use information and output levels are determined. Pairs should beselected based on installed Brake HP capacity regardless of energy use leveL Field data collectionand processing techniques for the paired comparisons are furnher descnrbed in Villagran andOrozwo, "An economic review of electricity in production use activities in rural Guatemala,'(Guatemala: NRECA/CARES, 1989).

Aplican

Ihese benefits were calculated for ten existing productive uses in the Asunta valley, Bolivia (seeChapter m) using market prices for altemative fuels.

v96 -

Page 17 of 18

NEW PRODUCIrE USES: TWO APPROACHES

EXPLANATION

The economic analysis methodology for productive us of electricity that eait presently and areto be converted to electricity is defned in the previous section tidtled 'Edsting Productive Uses."The issue here is how to estimate the economic benefit, if one assumes that a productive-useactivity comes about exclusive via thg intrducion of

(a) Before the introduction of electricity, the situation is such that the supply anddemand curves for the product of the enterprise do not cross (See 'SI' and IDV inGraph 6). With electricity, the supply curve shifts to "52S and intersects the demandcurve at a price Pi. Profits to the enterprise, depicted by 'A," and a conuarsurplus, shown as, IBV are created about that point.

To estimate "B,' the price elasticity of demand must be known. Tbis would implyan analysis of the productive use activity itsel normally beyond the scope of a ruralelectrifiation project. Profits, represented by IfA," can be more easily alculated bysurveying enterprises in similar electrified areas. TIis was not done in theAgroyungas prefeasibility analysis.

The entire profit of the newly created enterprises should be attnbuted as economicbenefit under this approach.

(b) In cases where profit is not measurable, a wilingness-to-pay criteria has been usedby World Bank staff.

The willingness-to-pay argument in productive uses assumes that an entrepreneurwill use electricity up to the point where marginal cost equals marginal benefit andignores those net benefits accrued before reaching that point. In such cases theeconomic benefit is simply the total electric energy expense calculated at the marketrate (kWh * taiff). This was the approach used in the evaluation of the Asuntavalley electrification options.

HOWv to

The production cost stream and resulting sales figures are easil determined for electrifiedproductive use activities in similar areas, using simple field techniques (this covers the profitcomponent, or A," under alternative i above). Willingness to pay is calculated by applying the tarffto esdmated kWh consumption.

Willgness to pay was used for those cases where the productive end-use activity involved did notexist in the Asunta valley at the time of the prefeasbilbt study, but estimated profits from newlycreated enterpries can be used in subsequent applicatons

- 97 -

Page 18 of 18

GRRPH 6

Si

p

S2

Si

B:p~ ~ ~ \A

S2\D

Qi Q

98 .

Page 1 of 42

RESUM DEL PROYECTO

ESCENARIO IA (FIN.P) proyectado a 30 ahos

Escenario Usos Productivos : Normal

# Consumidores :2404Inversion inicial 1,952,945Inversion x consumidor 812

Financiero

V.P.N -1,25,124B/C 0.63

_ 99 _

Page 2 of 42

Proyeeto E£8NO IA PCFI*) 30 Afls

REPOTE ANUAL IN RESUIE

AlG COWSU- X IRS I UJ X ISO KW %RS U.P %ISI

NIOCRES ~~~~~VENOIDO

01 2404 83.19 16.81 0.00 2030680 66.1S 33.62 0.00

02 2510 62.87 17.13 0.00 a290a4 64.Z9 35.7l 0.00

03 2620 82.56 17.44 0.00 254672 63.19 36.61 0.00

04 2n2 82.36 17." 0.00 2831832 61.97 38.03 0.00

OS 2848 82.16 17.84 0.00 3250188 s8.n 41.25 0.00

06 971 81.89 18.11 0.00 3519060 58.08 41.92 0.00

07 3100 81.65 18.35 0.00 374672 59.21 40.79 0.00

08 3223 81." 18.3L 0.00 3005200 60.69 30.31 0.00

09 3358 $1.51 18.49 0.00 4163260 61.24 38.6 0.00

10 3498 81.39 16.61 0.00 4546776 60.86 39.14 0.00

11 364S 61.27 18.73 0.00 A7420 61.61 38.39 0.00

12 3793 81.18 18.82 0.00 5092740 62.39 37.61 0.00

13 3949 81.08 18.92 0.00 $434320 62.22 37.7, 0.00

14 4112 80.98 19.02 0.00 57t234 62. 37.04 0.00

35 4281 80.09 19.11 0.00 6012252 63.59 36.61 0.00

1i6 U60 80.76 19.24 0.00 6308712 64.40 35.60 0.00

17 4644 8O.66 19.34 0.00 6643728 .95 3S.05 0.00

18 486 80.56 19.M 0.00 7000126 65.45 34.55 0.00

19 9033 80.51 19.49 0.00 7360188 66.06 33.94 0.00

20 5239 80.4" 19.56 0.00 m224 ".79 33.21 0.00

2' 545r 80.10 19.70 0.00 6135220 87.22 32.78 0.00

22 5684 80.19 19.81 0.00 84568 67.58 32.42 0.00

23 5912 80.18 19.82 0.00 8925864 68.19 31.81 0.00

Z4 6137 80.32 19.U 0.00 9170 .56 31.4 0.00

25 6371 80.47 19.53 0.00 9P97812 69.14 30.86 0.00

26 614 80.62 19.8 0.00 102112 69.53 3.4 0.00

27 6865 80.?? 19.23 0.00 106192 70.11 29.89 0.00

28 7101 81.21 18.79 0.00 11063M 7.68 19.3 0.00

29 733 81.73 18.27 0. 1148308 71.44 18.5 4.00

30 7394 81.8 18.18 0.00 1154S3 T1.60 2.60 0.00

'Z TotaL eX19xs8592

- 100 -

Page 3 of 42

Pro74to EtC6*1O IA POfINA) 30 AfRe

O IMUOIACZOt P IC

00370 00CT* 007 VALOR VALOt I/C VAORctall- IRAClWN £ CONNA coE 0* c0t00 PRIsNti ""f tgo P9*987 tmtca M1Et1

ANO T*IJCCION M?WINIUtEO CW PtD*1A RSAMAS IOTAL G0* tMTAL MZ CIDO U69F9CtO C Nia

00 19295a 0 0 o 1934 1"2945 0 0 0.00 -19529sOt 0 7276 4024 a 1 0 1127" 1461 1323 t.16 1M5402 *101 7920 54163 374 131766 10584 160?41 128141 1.22 230703 .523 am0220 60223 3474 13S24 9669 129 124M 1.26 3410104 .13*0 822 6664 344 146?T 94 191180 1214" 1.31 283Os 'S5 82272 7685? 1474 157031 80 31"99 1061 1.36 3176306 .i5919 617 83215 3474 164149 03163 228 15165 1.39 3522Ot .6*0? 84540 8550 3474 17035? 776 2An2 109592 1.42 321oa *5919 8647 9529 3474 176731 ?17 255M? 103147 1.45 31768co -496 66862 96922 3474 1U827 65906 699 97148 1.4? 3142310 .6? I8122 107518 3474 19237 4190 289S8 92 1.1 3135211 .69 818 11314? 3474 199110 52 304533 6S74 1.53 303071a 266 907 120428 374 207413 5323 3226? 2860 1.6 2613 .7507 92181 128506 3474 21665 496Z 342S92 M71 1.1 66114 .784 936S 1301 374 224359 4590 3 3s S 6O 73619 1.60 M271iS .8132 95149 1t2172 3474 23268 42510 37864 6906 1.63 267616 .8613 96780 149182 374 240823 39 36W0 6471 1.65 2428IT -4 98436 1105 474 25016 334 4171' 40751 1.6 34Is .3 100164 165532 3474 259931 0 4387412 705 1. 2325319 O9480 101"? 1740? 3474 2dl 51346 4607M am33 1 2214720 .9913 103791 1U613 347. 279 203 412 50084 1.73 21061-11 -1090 1053 192374 3474 29ti1 2645 58149 434 1.73 N022 .1096 107796 2006 3474 301313 24"1 5306? 483 1.76 189t. -1097 10946 21t070 3474 31341 231? 556902 410 1,78 179O64 *1002? 11187 220321 3474 324841 21401 5MM S 1.79 168

25 .1120 1139 23145 3474 3376J 1961 406 353 1.80 1926 .119 11616 2415 474 34"02 186 634989 33350 1.2 14942 -12 11842 251349 37 361170 16937 67 3098 1.8 1408so -11356 12049 261626 344 3743 1561 1.4 13829 -11404 1228 2715 3474 829 1461 71241? 261 1.64 1219130 -25 121 27334? 3474 3M92 13361 77318 2393 1.81 1068

Total 17122 2334 4601383 100?4 937291 342 1227302 2172146 125124A

a I c ffmwwste 0.63V.P.3 fineniso .1,251,124

- 101-

Page 4 of 42

RESUMEN DEL PROYECrO

ESCENARIO IA (ECO-P) proyectado a 30 ahlos

Escenario Usos Productivos: Normal

Consumidores 2,404Inversion inicial : 1,952,945Inversion x consumidor 812

Economico

V.P.N 1,967,890B/C 1.43

- 102 -

Page 5 of 42

proycto ISCIatO IA P(ECG) 30 AA"

319T7 ANUAL Al REV-MV

Aft COMSU- %RS X% .P %ESP KWI % tUB X U.P XESP

01 2404 63.19 16.81 0.00 20300 6.18 33.62 0.00

02 250 62.-8 17.15 0.00 2289072 64.2? 33.73 0.00

03 26t1 82.53 17.4? 0.00 2543748 63.15 36.63 0.00

04 2725 82.31 17.9 0.00 2026372 61.90 38.10 0.00

Os 2839 82.11 17.89 0.00 324284 S8.6 41.34 0.00

06 2960 81.8U 18.18 0.00 3509820 57.97 42.03 0.00

07 3085 61.56 18.4" 0.00 331532 59.06 40,94 0.00

Os 320S 81.56 18.44 0.00 393884 60.53 39.47 0.00

09 3337 81.39 18.61 0.00 416360" 61.06 38.94 0.00

10 3473 .1.26 t8,74 0.00 4322476 60.65 39.35 0.00

11 3614 81.13 18.87 0.00 4756932 *t.39 38.61 0.00

12 3760 81.01 18." 0.00 505864 62.14 37.8 0.00

13 3912 80."0 19.10 0.00 "95248 64.95 36.05 0.00

14 6071 80.79 19.21 0.00 8104 62.6? 37.33 0.00

Is 4235 80.68 19.32 0.00 596146 63.28 36.72 0.00

16 408 80.54 19.46 0.00 62S00$6 64.07 35.93 0.00

17 a8? 80.42 19.58 0.00 6578064 64.60 35.40 0.00

Is 4m 80.31 19.69 0.00 6926040 63.08 34.92 0.00

It 4963 80.23 19.77 0.00 7276188 65.6 34.33 0.00

20 5162 80.14 19.6 0.00 7620196 66.38 33.62 0.00

II 5374 80.00 20.00 0.00 8031636 66.80 3. 0.00

22 5592 79.86 20.14 0.00 8268 67.13 32.87 0.00

23 5813 79.84 20.6 0.00 879748 67.73 32.2? 0.00

24 6030 79.97 20.03 0.00 91M92 68.09 31.91 0.00

,2S 6254 40.11 19.89 0.00 9633372 68.65 31.35 0.00

26 6487 80.24 19.76 0.00 1004588 69.01 30." 0.00

27 6M 80.38 19.62 0.00 104506 69.59 30.41 0.00

28 6953 80.81 19.19 0.00 10863096 70.14 29.86 0.00

2t 7179 81.32 18.68 0.00 1126669 70.39 29.11 0.0

30 7394 81.82 18.18 0.00 11559432 71.60 28.40 0.00

192502044

103 -

Page 6 of 42

Prwy..to ESCEMARIO IA P(EC0) 30 Albs

' :MPORtACIN 8CO1IItCA

COStO CTO O10 Cift VALOR VALCO SI C VALORCoNS. OD*ACMO 8 G8NiACtON CAACw*o coSca COStO pIESENta tINp!CtO PRftSSIWTS 3ltOC1 PRfSew'-

AMO TIUCCItO NTlitNIENTO CN PEOIOOA- IkVA NIJORtAS TOTAL COSTO TOTAL SCONOICO SiEftC1o costa NITO

00 129as4 0 0 0 a 1912945 195294S 0 0 0.00 *195294501 0 78276 132346 0 0 21042 188073 53634 47880 2.55 .29080?02 5004 ?9212 144077 0 304 21ai9 176785 566045 451248 2.51 2746303 *S197 80184 156216 0 3474 2347 167039 196022 424237 2.54 25719804 -5245 81165 170W80 0 3474 249974 15863 628081 39915? 2.51 24029405 *s486 83191 193045 0 3474 273224 tS5035 n 67168 31131 2.46 22609606 5823 83280 206460 0 3474 267391 145602 7050 3W7187 2.45 21158S07 *6015 84405 2177" a 37 299910 1356" 6 9271 34409 2.46 19874508 5776 854S6 2278 0 34?4 311171 123677 769639 310845 2.4? 1851s09 *63f2 6603 239530 0 367 323325 116596 8S031 900 2.49 1733061a '644 87m? 259111 0 3474 343936 1103n9 850068 273 2.47 162611 . 678S 9166 271425 0 . 3474 5M70 102710 866636 2482 2.48 1121181* .7026 904U0 287452 0 5476 374380 96 96005 23762 2.46 14158813 1314 918" 305308 0 3474 3916 90338 96949 222183 2.6 13204514 '7651 93279 $20081 a 3474 60913 8376 101"87 20 4 2.48 12385?1s '7892 94755 335241 0 474 4382 7m72 ¶0O7 193242 3.49 11549016 ')5;s 96312 ss0738 0 3474 42199 132 1102541 1 7988 2.49 1071617 *8613 979 368372 0 -3 "I o114 6716 110SW 167519 2.49. 1003S418 -89S0 9959F 387a 0 3674 481164 70 1206004 156829 2.51 9425919 '9143 10107 405754 0 3474 S0119 58s2i 123756 146012 2.51 920 .9576 103098 4248? 0 3474 5214 54060 130946 135748 2.51 8168821 .10201 103006 46937 0 3474 1452106 506S 12746 12701 2.52 7659622 -10490 10696 66484 0 3474 654U 467?29 1427165 117945 2.52 7121623 '10635 108917 87554 0 3474 5893S5 4348? 148m7 1097 2.52 6629124 -1046 110910 0891 0 3474 125S 4MS 1149863 140210 2.53 61734as .109 . 11292A 532669 0 3474 638290 3V 1613"49 94908 2.3 5736226 '11212 1102o 555476 0 3474 662M 3480 1680279 829 2.54 5344027 -1159? W17192 576322 0 3474 6391 .. 32140 176471 81818 2.55 4967828 * 1082 119211 599,8? 0 Y 474 711251 *3 1807614 78 2.54 4590329 -1087 121251 621601 0 3474 731 27494 l85590 6972 2.54 4224830 -1 12318 349 3474 7S763 25126 1915613 69 2.54 38813

1712826 m71 1083492 0 101046 1517453 455510 31088 65400 19674890

1 / C uc 1.43V.P.11 coMeice 1,960,890

104 -

-ANPage 7 of 42

RESUME DEL PROYECTO

ESCENARIO 1B (FIN-P) proyectado a 30 ahos

Eswenario Usos Productio : Normal

# consumidores 1,139Inersion iniai: 1,520,516inversion x consumidor 1,335

Financlero

V.P.N .1,419,401B/C 037

- 105 -

Page 8 of 42

P?oyeeto ISC 10 Is (FIN-P 30 AM$

,, ~~~~~REPOlltS ANALt WJI RESU

AMO CONSU- X ES XU.P X IV %AS$S % U.P %eVP

NIDORIS ~~~~~VENOIDO

01 1139 82.27 17.73 0.00 512100 32.93 67.07 0.00

02 1268 82.10 17.90 0.00 633264 31.56 68.44 0.00

03 1400 81.64 18.36 0.00 804984 28.9? 71.03 0.00

03 1525 81.57 18.43 0.00 908S08 31.22 68.78 0.00

as 1644 81.69 18.31 .0.00 1036608 31.09 68.91 0.00

06 1770 81.36 18.64 0.00 1155180 31.41 68.59 0.00

0? 1887 81.35 18.65 0.00 1316868 30.77 69.23 0.00

08 2003 81.33 18.6? 0.00 1496284 30.01 69.99 0.00

09 2118 81.21 18.79 0.00 1601172 30.94 69.06 0.00

10 2226 81.2? 18.73 0.00 1665336 32.59 67.41 0.00

11 233? 81.13 18.8? 0.00 175n28 33.66 66.34 0.00

12 2443 i1.09 18.91 0.00 1881144 35.38 64.62 0.00

13 2547 81.04 18.96 0.00 1946844 35.62 64.38 0.00

14 2651 80.88 19.12 0.00 2033760 36.69 63.31 0.00

15 2747 80.85 19.15 0.00 2110692 37.88 62.12 0.00

16 284? 80.65 19.35 0.00 2217936 38.51 61.49 0.00

17 2942 80.49 19.51 0.00 2306844 39.42 60.58 0.00

18 3023 80.62 19.38 0t°° 2387028 40.43 59.5? 0.00

19 3101 80.75 19.25 0.00. 2457996 41.56 58." 0.00

20 3181 80.70 19.30 0.00 2549544 42.29 57.71 v.00

21 3252 80.78 19.22 0.00 259808 42.47 57.53 0.00

22 * 3319 80.84 19.16 0.00 2671392 43.39 56.61 0.00

23 3386 10.80 19.20 0,00 2758560 44.04 55.96 0.00

24 3437 81.03 18.97 0.00 27616 44.42 55.58 0.00

25 3487 81.19 18.81 0.00 28"38t2 45.08 54.92 0.00

* 26 3S34 81.27 18.73 0.00 2902284 45.12 54.88 0.00

2? 3574 81.42 18.58 0.00 2970732 45.84 54.16 0.00

28 3609 81.S5 18.45 0.00 2995T6 45.98 54.02 0.00

29 363 81.55 18.45 0.00 3038 4.45 53.55 0.00

30 3674 81.65 18.35 0.00 093828 4.54 53.4 0.00

- Total ^61489116

- 10$ -

Page 9 of 42

pryeeto ISCLNARbO 18 (PIX-P 30 AARe

* . b~~~~~~~~**' INPOANACION PINANCIERA '' *

C0sto Costa COSTO VALOR VALOR 8 / C VALOR

CCNS OPIRACION I OENSRACiON COSTo COSto PRISENtT 8fNv8c1o PISSuNts 8INIFICIO PRISENIg

AfO TRUCCION NAUNMINtINTO CON PSROIDA NEJORIAS TOtAL C0StO TOtAL PINANCIERO SENEFICtO COSTO NETO

00 1520516 0 0 0 1520316 1520516 0 0 0.00 .1520316

01 0 54315 1i1l1 0 6425 59308 48219 430S3 0.73 .16255

02 .6207 55476 14975 1M 65968 52589 56294 448" 7 0.8S -7712

03 -6352 56664 19036. 172 7Io0 5058? 4663 47436 0.9' -3151

04 601 5779 2144 1724 74982 47652 73621 46787 0.98 *865

05 .gr24 s88aw 24513 1m7 79371 45037 81623 46315 1.03 1278

06 .602 5999 42731? 12 829n 42036 89433 45310 1.08 32t4

0r .5430 6104? 31140 1724 88281 39934 98819 44701 1.12 476?

d8 -S2 62091 35430 174 93663 37829 109016 44029 1.16 6200

o9 -5534 43126 37863 1724 97179 35044 115784 41753 1.19 6709

10 -5197 64098 39380 1m7 100005 32199 120650 38846 1.21 6647

11 -5341 a6509 41553 1m4 103033 1919 12n89 36592 1.24 6973

12 -5101 66051 44484 1m4 1071S 27505 135409 34756 1.26 7251

13 504 "66i 4603? 14 109744 25150 140569 3221S 1.28 7065

14 .5004 6792 48092 172 11235 23068 146908 30060 1.30 6992

15 -4620 6878? 49912 M124 115803 2115? 152614 2M82 i.2 6n5

U -4812 6968? 52448 172 11904? 19419 1l9809 26068'- 1.34 649

1? -4571 70542 54550 174 122245 17804 16091 .24190 1.36 6386

18 -3896 71271 56 1n6 125543 16326 171588 22313 1.37 598?

19 -373 7193 58124 1724 128068 148O 17625 20507 1.38 5637

20 -3850 7293 60289 174 130856 13565 1826U 18938 1.40 5373

21 -341? 7m 61436 172 133075 12317 186360 m50 1.40 4933

22 *3224 7393 63171 174 13606 1120? 191311 1S810 1.41 403

23 -3224 74538 65232 14 138270 10203 19690? 14529 1.42 4326

24 -2454 7499r 65824 172 140091 9229 19905? 13114 1.42 3885

25 -2406 75? 67M 1724 142416 8381 203898 11994 1.43 3613

26 -26 770 68630 i12 143962 761 20600 10850 1.43 3289

-1925 7620 70249 17 146278 6859 210715 9881 1.44 3022

28 -1664 76545 08? 1724 147412 61n 2121 8898 1.44 2726

29 -1436 76851 720 17 14954 5590 216859 810? 1.45 2517

30 -1492 m730 73160 14 150522 5024 218542 n79 1.45 2271

* tota -*-'

uM 203946 1454038 49996 4941912 225375? 4462455 834356 -1419401

8 I C ft Iamfro 0.3?

V.P.N fiwuemfo -1,419,401

107 .

ANNX 10Page 10 of 42

RESUVM DEL PROYECTO

ESCENARIO lB (ECO.P) proyectado a 30 los

Escenario Usos Productivos : Normal

# consumidores 1,139Inversion inicial 1.520,516Inversion x consumidor 1,335

Economico

V.P.N 233,768B/C 1.09

- 108 -

Page 11 of 42

ProyQcto ESCtIAR10 1G (ICO-P) 30 AMi

IPofftt ANUAL IN RESUNEM

ARO COISU- %RES U.P XBP KWH X RES X U.P X ESP

NICORIS . VENOIOO

01 1139 82.27 17.73 0.00 512100 32.93 67.0? 0.00

02 1268 82.10 17.90 0.00 633264 31.56 68.44 0.00

03 1400 81.64 18.34 0.00 804984 28.97 71.03 0.00

04 1S2S 81.5? 18.43 9.00 908S08 31.22 68.78 0.00

OS 1644 81.69 18.31 0.00 1036608 31.09 68.91 0.00

06 1770 81.36 18.64 0.00 1lS5180 31.41 68.59 0.00

07 188? 81.35 18.65 0.00 1316868 30.7T 69.23 0.00

08 2003 81.33 18.67 0.00 1498284 30.01 69.99 0.00

09 2118 81.21 18.79 0.00 1601172 30.94 69.06 0.00

10 2226 81.27 18.73 0.00 1665336 32.59 67.41 0.00

11 2337 81.13 18.87 0.00 17S7208 33.66 66.34 0.00

12 2443 81.09 18.91 0.00 1881144 35.38 64.62 0.00

13 2S47 81.04 18.96 0.00 1946844 35.62 64.38 0.00

14 26S1 80.88 19.12 0.00 2033760 36.69 63.31 0.00

i5 2747 80.85 19.15 0.00 2110692 37.88 62.12 0.00

16 2847 80.65 19.3S 0.00 2217936 38.51 61.49 0.00

17 2942 80.49 19.51 0.00 2306844 39.42 60.58 0.00

18 3023 80.62 19.38 0.00 2387028 40.43 59.57 0.00

19 3101 80.7S 19.25 0.00 245?996 41.56 S8." 0.00

20 3181 8o.7o 19.30 0.00 2549544 42.29 57.71 0.00

21 3252 80.78 19.22 0.00 2598048 42.47 57.53 0.00

22 3319 80.84 19.16 0.00 2671392 43.39 56.61 0.00

23 3386 80.80 19.20 0.00 2758560 ".04 55.96 0.00

24 3437 81.03 18.9? 0.00 2783616 44.42 55.58 0.00

24 348? 81.19 18.81 0.00 2863812 45.08 54.92 0.00

26 3534 81.27 18.73 0.00 2902284 45.12 54.88 0.00

27 3574 81.42 18.58 0;00 29?0732 45.84 S4.16 0.00

28 3609 81.55 18.45 0.00 2995J76 4S.98 54.02 0.00

29 3643 81.55 18.45 0.00 3070368 4.45 53.55 0.00

30 3674 iI.65 18.35 0.00 3093828 4.54 53.46 0.00

~ rto6l 661489116

-109 -

AN= laDPage 12 of 42

proyacto EssgE1Sis l (ECO-P) 30 Ailos

C0StO COStO c, i COSt C0tO VALOR VALOR . I / C VALOR

C011S OPg8tACION1 A GNEItACION CAPACIOAO COStO COStO pRlxe stE NfliC10 PRESENtE 8attlCIO PRES8NtE

Ago TRUCC101 WAUlItUlIENtO CCX PEROIOA kVA MJOIAS tOtAL C0StO T0OTA ECONHICO BENtFICIO COSTO MItO

do 1520S16 o o 0 o S20316 1520516 o o 0.00 *1S20S16

ot 0 54315 333rr o o 87692 MM29 190M8 Iro347 2.18 92051

02 *620? 55476 3sss8 0 inm "85 I n426 2 1466 171113 2.36 9868r

03 -6352 S6W6 49435 0 inm 1014r1 n2225 2465"6 1 M"8 2.43 103261

04 -6019 sr#789 S4831 0 inm 108329 6884S 2r0074 1?1636 2.49 102791

a5 s 7 5886 0 $a 61r09 o inm 11656? ' 6143 293r66 166691 2.32 100s4a

06 *6063 59994 6r92 o inm 12360? 62623 319845 162064 2.59 99421

07 -3630 61047 r6s43 o inm 133984 60607 362611 134980 2.56 943n3

-08 *s5u2 62091 o6nm a In 1""Y5 sss4" 3658?4 14r.0 2.52 89224

09 *$534 03126 92114 a inm 151430 $460? 3901"9 140r09 2.Si 86102

10 *s19r "409a "4614 o inm 156039 $0240 4OMr 131280' 2.61 81040

s1 *S-341 6so9r 100266 o 1n 161 7" 464sr 42802s 123047 2.65 - 6S50

It *s101 66051 106893 o inm 169567 QS24 493041' 116284 2.6? n2w60

13S-004 66s8r 11016a o m4 1n875 39848 4689U5 10r4r1 2.? 6r623

14 *5004 6?923 114"4s o in 179491 36r.27 488392 99934 2.n2 6320r'

Is *U-20 6arsr 118695 o m4 184386 '33m3 50559l 92370 2.r4 ' s84r

16 *-4812 6s67 12446S o inm 191064 31167 523190 s 343 2.r4 341?6

1r *451 rosu2 129183 o inm 1968rs 286r4 541793 78909 2.nS 50235

la *3898 ?12?1 133393 o inm 202 90 26332 556858 n414 2.75 46082

19 -*n3 719n3 13?06 o lm 20r013 z6036 5r6 66Z3S' 2.r6 421"v

20 -38S0 r2693 1418?3 a in 212r42 22023 S86920 60844 2.r6 3=e1

21 -3417 n3332 I44574 o lnm 216213 20013 s98249 SS374 2.r7 35361

2z -3224 n3935 IMUI4 o inm 220r76 18245 610456 50430 Z.r7 32205

23 *3224 74S38 15285r o 1m4 22ssss 16668 624184 460sr 2.r6 29389

24 .2454 r4997 IS4243 o ln4 228512 .ls0s5 631486 41604 2.76 26549

2S *2406 T54s7 1s83sz o lnm 233117 13n13 64lO61 Mlo 2.7S 23"r

26 .2262 ?58?0' 160479 o lnM 23s811 1238S 649086 34091 WS7 21ro6

z7 *1925 76r230 163915 o lm 2n9943 11252 6s6936 30806 2.74 lffs4

28 *U684 76s45 16S263 o im 241"S8 102 "ou 6219? 2m6 2.r4 1r600

29 *1636 76851 169412 o im 246351 9209 6M8s2 2so6s z.n l5859

so *1492 M30 In=3 a 1n4 24nos 8268 6nils W234 2.n3 1426

uss398 U 9346 3"2991 o 49M9 6o074 2632SS9 1u458"0 286632? 233768

0 /. e sto¢o 1.09

V.P.v p Alfo 23,768

X110 -

ANNEX 10Page 13 of 42

RESUMIEN DEL PROYECrO

ESCENARIO 1B (lIN.0) proyectado a 30 afios

Escenario Usos Productivos : Alto

# consumidores 1,190Inversion inicial : 1,518,062Inversion x consumidor 1,276

Financiero

V.P.N -1,274,737B/C 0.46

- 111 -

Page 14 of 42

Proy.@to tSC8NARIO 18 (FIN-0) 30 AfRs

REPORtE ANUAL EN RESUIN

ARO CONSU %RES % t.P lISP KW% %Rs$ X U.P % ISP

MtDORES VENDIDO

01 1190 78.74 21.26 0.00 555300 30.37 69.63 0.0002 1353 76.94 23.06 0.00 787272 25.39 74.61 0.0003 1513 75.55 24.45 0.00 991608 23.51 76.49 0.0004 1671 74.45 25.53 0.00 112r576 25.16 74.864 0.0005 1823 73.67 26.33 0.00 1450908 22.22 77.78 0.00

06 1977 72.84 27.16 0.00 1643964 22.07 77.93 0.00

07 2121 72.37 27.63 0.00 1763604 22.98 77.02 0.00

08 2271 71.73 28.27 0.00 1888524 23.81 76.19 0.00

09 2414 71.25 28.75 0.00 2028864 24.42 75.58 0.0010 2557 70.n 29.25 0.00 2154612 25.19 74.81 0.00

11 2701 70.20 29.80 0.00 2583936 22.89 77.10 0.00

12 2840 69.75 30.2S 0.00 2722668 24.45 75.55 0.0013 2974 69.40 30.60 0.00 2935020 23.63 76.37 0.00

14 3107 69.01 30.99 0.00 3061356 24.37 75.63 0.00

1s 3220 68.98 31.02 0.00 3218340 24.84 75.16 0.00

16 3333 68.89 31.11 0.00 3423864 24.95 75.05 0.00

17 3423 69.18 30.82 0.00 3599940 25.26 74.74 0.00

18 3506 69.51 30.49 0.00 3692532 26.14 73.86 0.00

19 3582 69.91 30.09 0.00 3779988 27.03 72.97 0.00

20 3654 70.25 29.75 0.00 3874800 27.82 72.18 0.00

21 3722 70.58 29.42 0.00 3921516 28.14 71.86 0.00

22 3787 70.85 29.15 0.00 4014408 28.87 71.13 0.00

23 3849 71.08 28.92 0.00 4101012 29.62 70.38 0.00

24 3902 71.37 28.63. 0.00 4133208 29.92 70.08 0.00

25 3955 71.58 28.42 0.00 4224240 30.56 69.44 0.00

26 4001 71.78 28.22 0,00 4267572 30.69 69.31 0.00

27 4043 71.98 28.02 0.00 4338960 31.39 68.61 0.00

28 4077 72.19 27.81 0.00 4354644 31.63 68.37 0.00

29 4107 72.34 27.66 0.00 4413900 32.31 67.69 0.0030 4136 72.53 27.47 0.00 U27820 32.52 67.48 0.00

e*^ total t*8

89481756

- 112-

-alPagp 15 of 42

Proysoto ISCUMRIO 13 (FIN-O) 30 Atso

INFORNACION FINANCItA

coSTo COSTO costo VALOR VALOR 8 / C VALOR

CONS- OPERACION a GENERACION COSTO COSTO PRESENTE IEJ4IFICIO PRESENTE 8ENtFICIO PRSEtilTADO tRUCC1O0 NANTENINtENTO CON PER0J0A HEJORIAS TOTAL COSTO TOTAL FtNANCIERO ItNEpIclo COStO NETO

00 1518062 0 0 0 1518062 1S18062 0 0 0.00 .151806201 0 4r774 13131 0 67905 60630 5178" 46236 0.76 .1439402 -7844 56241 18617 1724 68738 s4797 65790 5244? 0.96 *23SO03 -7699 57681 23449 1724 7?155 53493 78489 5S867 1.04 237404 .7603 59103 26659 176 79883 S0767 87964 55902 1.10 5135

as -7314 60471 34310 174 89191 50609 105531 S98i8 1.18 9272

06 -7410 6185T 38875 174 95046 48153 117511 S9534 1.24 113810r .6929 63153 41704 1724 99652 45077 125975 56985 1.26 1190808 -n18 64503 44658 1724 103667 41869 134861 54468 1.30 125909 -6881 65790 47977 1724 108610 39166 144190 SI56 1.33 1283010 -6881 67077 50950 174 112870 36341 152888 49226 1.35 1288511 -6929 68373 61102 1724 124270 3Sn2 175247 0379 1.41 1465412 -6689 69624 64383 . 172 129042 33122 185113 47513 1.43 1439113 -6448 70830 69405 1724 135S11 31055 197624 45291 1.46 1423614 *6400 no2? 72392 174 139743 28s94. 206640 42282 1.48 1368815 -5438 7304 76104 174 145434 26570 216383 39533 1.49 1296316 *S438 74061 80964 174 151311 24682 2282n 37236 1.51 125S4

17 -4331 74871 85128 174 157392 22923 238160 34686 1.51 1176318 -3994 ?5618 87318 14 160666 20893 244260 31763 1.52 1087019 -36s5 76302 89386 174 163755 19013 249943 29020 1.53 1000720 -3465 76930 91628 1724 166837 1m95 255877 26526 1.53 923121 -3272 M62 92732 1724 168746 15619 259368 2400? 1.54 838822 -3128 78147 94929 174 171672 14187 265097 21908 1.54 ml23 -2983 * 78705 96977 174 174423 12870 270504 19960 1.55 7090

24 -2550 79182 9m7 m4 176094 11601 273026 17988 1.55 638725 -2550 79659 9891 1m4 18724 10513 27843s 16378 1.56 586526 -2214 80073 100916 174 180499 9480 281314 14774 1.56 529427 -2021 80451 102604 174 182758 8s70 285619 13394 1.56 482428 -1636 so8 t 102975 14 183820 .7696 287006 12016 1.56 432029 -1444 8102? 104376 172 185683 6941 290527 10861 1.56 392030 .135 s81288 104705 174 16322 6219 2912 97n3 1.57 3519

Totat **1376301 2139201 2115983 49996 5681481 2362532 6045127 1087795 -127473

I C c ftmnefo 0.46V.P.ll Itnaofero 1,274,73?

e113 -

A-NPage 16 of 42

RESUMEN DEL PROYECIO

ESCFMARIO 1B (ECO.0) proyectado a 30 afios

Escenario Usos Produ.os : Alto

c oonsumidores 1,190Inversion ini:ial 1,518,062Iversion x consumidor 1,276

Economico

V.P.N 708,3B /C 1.25

- 114 -

Page 17 of 42

Proyecto ESCENARIO 1t t£CO-O) 30 Ahi

REPORTI ANUAL IN RESUEN

ARO CONSU- % RES X U.P E ISP UN X RES X U.P X ESP

HIOORES VENO 1O0

01 1190 78.74 21.26 0.00 555300 30.37 69.63 0.00

02 13S3 76.94 23.06 0.00 t7nn 25.39 74.61 0.00

03 1513 75.S5 24.45 0.00 991608 23.51 76.49 0.00

04 1671 74.45 25.S,5 0.00 1127376 25.16 74.84 0.00

OS 1823 73.67 26.33 0.00 14S0908 22.22 77.78 0.00

06 1977 72.84 27.16 0.00 1643964 22.07 77.93 0.00

07 2121 72.37 27.63 0.00 1763604 22.98 77.02 0.00

08 2271 71.73 28.27 0.00 1888524 23.81 76.19 0.00

09 2414 71.25 28.n7 0.00 2028864 24.42 M.58 0.00

10 2557 70.75 29.25 0.00 2154612 25.19 74.81 0,00

11 2701 70.20 29.80 0.00 2583936 22.89 77.11 0.00

12 2840 69.75 30.25 0.00 2722668 24.45 75.55 0.00

13 2974 69.40 30.60 0.00 2935020 23.63 76.37 0.00

14 3107 69.01 30.99 0.00 3061356 24.37 75.63 0.00

15 3220 68.98 31.02 0.00 3218340 24.84 75.16 0.00

16 3333 68.89 31.11 0.00 3423864 24.95 75.05 0.00

17 3423 69.18 30.82 0.00 3599940 25.26 74.74 0.00

18 3506 69.51 30.49 0.00 3692532 26.14 73.86 0.00'

19 3582 69.91 30.09 0.00 3779988 27.03 72.97 0.00

20 3654 70.25 29.73 0.00 3874800 27.82 72.18 0.00

21 3722 70.58 29.42 0.00 3921516 28.14 71.86 0.00

22 3787 70.85 29.15 0.00 4014408 28.87 71.13 0.00

23 3849 71.08 28.92 0.00 4101012 29.62 70.38 0.00

24 3902 71.37 28.63 0.00 4133208 29.92 70.08 0.00

25 3955 71.58 28.42 0.00 4224240 30.56 69.44 0.00

26 4001 71.78 28.22 0.00 4267572 30.69 69.31 0.00

27 4043 71.98 28.02 0.00 4338960 31.39 68.61 0.00

28 4077 72.19 27.81 0.00 4354644 31.63 68.37 0.00

29 4107 72.34 27.66 0.00 4413900 32.31 67.69 0.00

30 4136 72.53 27.47 0.00 4427820 32.S2 67.48 0.00

Totat "89481756

- 115 -

page 18 of 42

Proyecto ESCENARIO 18 (ECO-0) 30 AAos

INFORMACION ECONOMICA

COSTO Costa COStO COSTO VALOR VALOR B / C VALOR

COUS OPS'JlACtON 6 GIXIRACSON CAPACtOA0 COSTO COStO PRESENTE UENEFICIO PRESENTE BENEfICtO PRESENTE

ADO tRUCCION NANTENtNIENTO CON PtROtDA kVA NEJORIAS TOTAL COSTO TOTAL ECONONICO 8ENEfICtO COSTO NETO

00 1510a62 0 0 0 0 1518062 1318062 0 0 0.00 -1518062

01 0 54774 36192 0 0 90966 81220 20S988 183918 2.26 102698

02 -7844 6241 49S52 0 174 99673 79459 243687 194265 2.44 114806

03 -7699 57681 60896 0 124 112602 8014a 286950 204245 2.55 124097

04 .7603 59103 68040 0 174 121264 7766 317883 202020 2.62 124954

05 -7314 60471 863n 0 14 1412S3 80150 359374 203919 2.54 123769

06 -7410 61857 96704 0 1724 1S2875 7451 392101 198651 2.56 121200

07. . *6929 63153 102911 0 174 1608S9 72764 426996 1931S1 2.6S 120387

08 -7218 64503 109312 0 1724 168321 67982 455025 183m 2.70 115795

09 -6881 65790 116719 0 1724 1MS2 63955 487378 1753 2.75 111798

10 -6881 67077 123447 0 1n4 18S367 59683 519051 167121 2.80 107438

11 -6929 68373 147436 0 174 210604 6OS44 S64040 162148 2.68 101604

12 -6689 69624 154712 0 ln4 219371 56307 s91863 151916 2.70 95609

13 "648 70830 166088 0 174 232194 53213 62n60 143752 2.70 90539

14 -6400 72027 1n877 0 1724 240228 41ss 6ss53s?. 13381i 2.72 84657

15 *5438 3044 180984 0 174 250314 45732 683418 1248S8 2.73 79126

16 -5438 74061 192139 0 174 262486 42817 708628 I1SS92 2.70 n75

1t -4331 74871 201597 0 174 273861 39886 733637 106850 2.68 66964

18 -399 75618 206347 0 1n4 279695 363y1 749803 97304 2.68 61133

19 -3657 76302 210790 0 174 285159 33109 763701 88670 2.68 S5561

z0 -3465 769O 215621 0 m4 2908o 30149 776790 80s27 2.67 S0378

21 -32n m62 218221 0 m4 294235 2234 7s3 n9oo 2.68 45666

22 -3128 7814? 222918 o0 14 299661 24765 800333 66162 2.67 41377

23 .2983 ?8705 227244 0 14 304690 22482 812580 5s995 2.67 37476

24 -2550 79182 229028 0 m4 307384 20251 820880 S4082 2.67 33831

25 -2550 796S9 233576 a 1724 312409 1837 831477 48911 2.66 30534

26 -2214 80073 23S972 0 14 31555 16S73 83946S 44089 2.66 2516

? -2021 80451 239408 0 m4 319562 1498s .88164 39773 2.65 24788

2S .1636 807s7 240274 0 1724 321119 1344S 8S3330 3s52 2.6 22284

29 -1444 81027 243543 0 14 324850 12144 859n 32139 2.65 1999s

30 -1395 s8288 243791 0 ln4 325408 10861 863779 28831 2.65 17970

T Totat **1376301 2139201 5032711 0 49996 8598209 2886340 18864858 3595003 708663

3 / C OMnIUC@ 1.25

V.P.N .cmIcs 708.663

116-

AN 0Page 19 of 42

RESUMEN DEL PROYECIO

ESCENARIO 2 (FIN.P) proyaectado a 30 afios

Escenario Usos Produtos : Normal

#conmidores 1,139Inversi6n inicial : 1,075,516InversiMn x consumidor 944

Financiero

VP.N -974,401B/C 0.46

_ 117 -

Page 20 of 42

Proyecto ESCEmARtO 2 (FIN*P) 30 Aibs

REPONTE ANUAL EN RESUHEN

AO CONSU- X AS$ X U.P X tSP KWH X%RS X U.P X ESP

HWDORES VENOoo

01 1139 82.27 17.73 0.00 512100 32.93 67.0? 0.00

02 1268 82.10 17.90 0.00 633264 31.56 68.44 0.00

03 1400 81.64 18.36 0.00 804984 28.97 71.03 0.00

04 IS2S 81.57 18M63 0.00 908508 31.22 68.78 0.00

OS 1644 81.69 18.31 . 0.00 1036608 31.09 68.91 0.00

1770 81.36 18.64 0.00 115S180 31.41 68.59 0.00

*0 1887 81.35 18.65 0.00 1316868 30.77 69.23 0.00

08 2003 81.33 18.67 0.00 1498284 30.01 69.99 0.00

09 2118 81.21 18.79 0.00 1601172 30.94 69.06 0.00

10 2226 81.27 18.7 0.00 1665336 32.59 67.41 0.00

Ii 2337 81.13 18.87 0.00 1757208 33.66 66.34 0.00

12 2443 81.09 18.91 0.00 1881144 35.38 64.62 0.00

13 254? 81.04 18.96 0.00 1946844 3s.62 64.38 0.00

14 2651 80.88 19.12 0.00 2033760 36.69 63.31 0.00

15 2747 80.85 19.15 0.00 2110692 37.88 62.12 0.00

16 284? 80.65 19.35 0.00 2217936 38.51 61.49 0.00

17 2942 80.49 19.51 0.00 2306844 39.42 60.58 0.00

.18 3023 80.62 19.38 0.00 2387028 40.43 59.5? 0.00

19 3101 80.7S 19.25 0.00 2457996 41.56 58.44 0.00

20 3181 80.70 19.30 0.00 2549S44 42.29 57.71 0.00

21 3252 80.78 19.22 0.00 2598048 42.47 57.53 0.00

22 3319 80.84 19.16 0.00 2671392 43.39 56.61 0.00

23 3386 80.80 19.20 0.00 2158560 44.04 55.96 0.00

24 3437 81.03 18.9? 0.00 2783616 44.42 55.58 0.00

25 348? 81.19 18.81 0.00 2863812 4S.08 54.92 0.00

26 3534 81.27 18.73 0.00 2902284 45.12 54.88 0.00

2? 3S74 81.42 18.58 0.00 2970732 45.84 S4.16 0.00

28 3609 81.55 18.45 0.00 2995176 45.98 54.02 0.00

29 3643 81.55 18.45 0.00 3070368 46.45 53.55 0.00

30 3674 81.65 18.35 0.00 3093828 46.54 53.46 0.00

O" Totat *'

61489116

- 118-

Page 21 of 42

Proyf t@ gscENAMRIO 2 (FIN-P) 30 AAhs

* INFORNAC?ON FINANCtERA 0'"

COSTO COSTO cOSTO VALOR VALOR I / C VALOR

CONS. OPERACtON & GINURACtON COStO COSTO PRESENTt SENEFICtO PRESENTS 8ENEflCIO PRESENTE

ARO TaUCctoN NANNtENIIENTO CON PEROIDA PEJORIAS TOTAL COSTO TOTAL FINANCIERO GENEfICZo COSTO NETO

00 1071516 0 0 0 1071516 1075516 0 0 0.00 *10?516

01 0 54315 12110 0 66421 59308 48219 43053 0.73 *1625S

02 -6207 - s5476 14975 1724 6S968 52589 56294 4487? 0.8S 47712

03 -6352 S6664 19036 1724 71072 s5s0 66643 47436 O.;4 31*51

04 -6015 57789 21484 1724 74982 47652 73621 46787 0.98 *865

os *5n6 s8860 24513 1724 79371 4503? 81623 4631S 1.03 12P8

06 -6063 59994 27317 14 82972 42036 89433 45310 1.08 32?4

?r -5630 61047 31140 174 8s2a8 3934 9819 44701 1.12 4M6T

08 .5582 62091 35430 174 93663 37829 109016 44029 1.16 6200

09 .5534 63126 37863 174 97179 35044 115784 41753 1.19 6709

10 -5197 64098 39380 174 100l00 32199 1206S0 38846 1.21 664r

11 -5341 65097 41553 174 103033 29619 12n289 36592 1.24 6973

12 -5101 66051 44484 1724 107158 27sos 135409 347r6 1.26 7251

13 -5004 66987 46037 1724 109744 25150 140569 32215 1.28 7065

14 -5004 67923 48092 1724 112735 230(8 146908 30060 1.30 692

is 4620 68787 49912 174 115803 21157 152614 27882 1.32 6ns

16 .4812 69687 52448 14 119047 19419 159809 26068 1.34 6649

17 .4571 70s42 S4550 172 122245 17804 166091 24190 1.36 6386

1S -3898 71271 56446 174 12ss43 16326 171588 22313 1.37 598?

19 -3753 71973 58124 174 128068 14870 7T662S 20sor 1.38 563?

20 .3850 72693 60289 1n4 130856 13S65 182683 18938 1.40 53n

21 . -3417 M32 61436 174 133075 1231? 186360 1nso . 1.40 4933

22 -3224 73935 63f1 1724 131606 1120? 191311 l5810 1.41 4603

23 -3224 74538 65232 172 138270 10203 19690? 14529 1.42 4326

24 -2454 7499T 65824 174 . 140091 9229 190OST 13114 1.42 388s

25 -2406 75447 6M7 172 142486 8381 203898 1194 1.43 3613

26 -2262 75870 68630 14 .143962 7561 206600 108S0 1.43 3289

27 -1925 76230 70249 172 146278 6859 210715 9881 1." 3022

28 -1684 76545 70827 1724 147412 6172 212519 8898 1.44 2n6

29 -1636 76851 n605 172 149544 5590 2168S9 8107 1.4s 251?

30 -1492 77M30 73160 172 150522 5024 218542 7295 1.4$ 2271

*eTotal **953532 203346 14540 49996 "96912 1808737 462455 834356 -974401 t

I C finwaM1ewo 0.46

V.P.N ffnmforo -974,401

119-

ANNEX 10Page 22 of 42

RESUMEN DEL PROYECrO

ESCENARIO 2 (ECO-P) proyectado a 30 afios

Escenario Usos Productivos : Normal

c consumidores 1,139Inversi6n inicial : 1,075,516Inversi6n x consumidor 944

Econ6mico

V.P.N 678,768B/C 1.31T.IR. 17.75

_ 120_

Page 23 of 42

Proyecto ESCENAIO 2 (ECO*P) 30 AMoS

REPORTE MUAL EN RES!N

Af CONSU- X RES X U.P X SKW X RES X U.P X ESPIDORES VEN100

.01 1139 82.2 17.73 0.00 512100 32.93 67.0? 0.0002 1268 82.10 17.90 o.oo 633264 31.56 68.44 0.0003 1400 81.64 18.36 0.00 804984 28.9? 71.03 0.0004 1525 81.57 t8,63 0.00 gO8s08 31.22 68.r8 0.0005 164 81.69 18.31 0.00 '1036608 31.09 68.91 0.0006 170 81.36 18.64 0.00 115S180 31.41 68.39 o.oo0? 1887 81.35 18.65 0.00 13168 30.?? 69.23 0.0008 2003 81.33 18.6? o.oo 1498284 30.01 69.99 0.0009 2118 81.21 18.79 0.00 1601172 30.94 69.06 0.0010 2226 81.27 18.73 0.00 1665336 32.59 67.41 o0oo1I 2337 81.13 18.8? 0.00 1757208 33.66 66.34 0.oo12 2443 81.09 18.91 o.oo 1881144 35.38 64.62 0.0013 2547 81.04 18.96 0.00 19464 3S.62 64.38 0.0014 265t 80.88 19.2 0.00 2033760 36.69 63.31 0.00I5 2747 80.83 19.15 0.00 2110692 37.88 62.12 0.0016 2847 80.65 19.3S 0.00 2217936 38.51 61.49 0.0017 2942 80.49 19.51 0.00 2306844 39.42 60.58 0.0018 3023 80.62 19.38 0.00 238s028 40.43 59.s? 0.0019 3101 80.75 19.25 0.oo 2457996 f1.S6 58.44 0.0020 3181 80.70 19.30 0.00 2s49544 42.29 57.71 0.0021 3252 80.78 19.22 0.00 2598048 42.47 57.53 0.0022 3319 80.84 19.16 0.00 2671392 43.39 56.61 0.0023 33 80.80 19.20 0.00 2758560 4.04 55.96 0.0024 343? 81.03 1A.9? o.oo 2783616 ".42 55.S8 0.002a 348? 8t.19 18.81 0.00 . 2863812 45.08 54.92 0.0026 3534 81.27 18.73 0.00 2902284 45.12 54.88 0.0027 3574 81.42 18.58 0.00 2970732 45.84 54.16 0.0028 3609 81.55 1.45 0.00 2991 76 45.98 54.02 0.0029 363 81.55 18.45 0.00 3070368 46.45 53.55 0.0030 3674 81.65 18.35 0.00W 093828 46.54 53.46 0.00

* Total O'*

61489116

- 121 -

Papz 24 of 42

P oyeto ICENSAIO 2 (IC0P) 30 AMes

e INpONACIOtN IECONOICA e

CoSTo COso costO cosT, VALOR VALOR 1 / C VALOR

C=- OPLIN RACION I ONtUCIOI CAPACWAO COstO COSTO PRESENTS SONEFICIG PRESINTS SENEFICIO PRESSETE

Ago TRUCCoN ANTEN1NIENTO COM PUROIOA kVA NUJ8RtAS TOTAL COSTO TOTAL ECONtOCO 8eNEFICIO CostO Nato

00 1075516 0 a 0 107$516 1015516 0 0 0.00 *10?55t6

01 0 54315 33377 00 87692 78296 190788 17034? 2.18 9stos

Oa -6207 55476 398s8 0 m4 90851 n426 21464S 171113 2.36 98687

03 -63S2 56664 4943s 0 174 101471 n72225 246346 17548t 2.43 103261

04 .6015 5S7 54831 0 1724 108329 6884S 270074 171636 2.49 102791

a, .5726 58860 61709 0 1m 116567 6143 293766 166691 2.52 1C0543

06 .6063 59994 679s2 0 1m 123607 62623 31984S 162044 2.59 99421

07 -5630 61047 76843 0 174 133984 6060? 342611 154980 2.56 94373

Oa .5582 62091 s6724 0 174 144957 58146 365874 147M 2.52 89224

09 -5534 63126 92114 0 172 151430 5460? 390199 140709 2.56 06102

10 -519? 64098 95414 0 1724 136039 50240 40M3 131280 2.61 81040

11 .5341 65097 100264 0 174 16174 46497 428025 123047 2.65 7655s

12 .S101 66051 106893 o 174 169567 43524 453041 116284 2.67 72760

13 -5004 6698 110168 0 1m 17387 39848 468945 07471 2.70 67623

14 .5004 6"923 114848 0 172 17491 26n7 488392 99934 2.72 63207

5 -4620 6787 118695 a 14 184586 33m3 505591 92370 2.74' 586?

16 -4812 69687 124465 0 12 191064 3116? 523190 85341 2.74 541M

I? -4511 70542 129183 0 174 196878 2674 S41793 7899 2.75 50235

18 3890 71271 133393 0 1m 202490 26332 556858 72414 2. 46082

19 -3753 71973 137069 0 174 20t013 24036 570468 16235 2.76 42199

20 -380 n693 141875 0 172 212442 22023 58920 60844 2.76 38821

21 -3417 73332 14574 0 m4 216213 20013 598249 55374 2.7 35361

22 -3224 73935 148341 0 1724 220?76 18245 610456 50450 2.?? 3220S

23 -3224 74538 152857 0 1724 225895 16668 624184 4605? 2.76 29389

24 -2454 7499? 154245 a 7m 228512 1S0S5 631486 41604 2.76 26549

25 ;2406 7n4 158352 0 1724 233117 13713 641061 37710 2.7 23"9926 2 r7870 160479 0 1724 23S811 . 12385 649086 34091 2.75 21706

2 .1925 76230 163915 0 1724 239944 11252 656936 30806 2.74 19554

2 -1684 76545 165263 0 1724 241848 10126 66219? 277 2.74 17600

29 -1636 76"51 169412 0 1724 246351 9209 670582 25068 2.72 1"589

30 -1492 m30 103 0 1724 m47705 8268 67515 22534 2.73 14266

953532 2039346 3462891 0 49996 6505765 2187n59 1458U60 28667 678768

a / C .r'Amio 1.31V.P.0 .eondmco 678,768

v122-

-N0Page 25 of 42

RESUMEN DEL PROYECTO

ESCENARIO 2 (FIN-O) proyectado a 30 aflos

Escenario Usos Productivos : Alto

* consumidores 1,190Inversion inicial 1,073,062Inversion x consumidor 902

Financiero

V.P.N 829,737B/C 0.57

_ 123 _

Page 26 of 42

Proyect USCMARIl 2 (FtN-0) 30 A5

REPOnts ANUAL IN RSIUNEN

ARO CONSUW X RES X U.P X ISP KwI X RAt X U.P X ESP

NIOCUS . VENODOO

01 1190 78.74 21.26 0.00 sss300 30.37 69.63 0.00

02 1353 76.94 23.06 0.00 87s2n 25.39 74.61 0.00

03 1513 7n.ss 24.45 0.00 991608 23.31 76.49 0.00

04 167l 74.4S 2S.ss 0.00 1127376 2S.16 74.84 0.00

OS 1823 73.67 26.33 0.00 14SO908 22.22 77.78 0.00

06 1977 72.84 27.16 0.00 1643964 22.07 77.93 0.00

o7 2121 n.37 27.63 0.00 1763604 22.98 77.02 0.00

08 2271 71.73 28.2? 0.00 1888524 23.81 76.19 0.00

09 2414 71.25 28.75 0.00 2028864 24.42 75.58 0.00

10 2ss5 7.7 29.25 0.00 215Z4612 25.19 74.81 0.00

11 2701 70.20 29.80 0.00 2583936 22.89 77.11 0.00

12 2840 69.75 30.25 0.00 2722668 24.4S 7s.ss 0.00

13 2974 69.40 30.60 0.00 2935020 23.63 76.37 0.00

14 3107 69.01 30.99 0.00 3061356 24.37 75.63 0.00

1S 3220 68.98 31.02 0.00 3218340 24.84 75.16 0.00

16 3333 68.89 31.11 0.00 3423864 24.95 75.os 0.00

17 3423 69.18 30.82 0.00 3s99940 2S.26 74.74 0.00

18 3506 69.51 30.49 0.00 3692532 26.14 73.86 0.00

19 3582 69.91 30.09 0.00 377998 27.03 n.97 0.00

20 36S4 70.25 29.75 0.00 3874800 27.82 n. 18 0.00

21 3722 70.58 29.42 0.00 3921S16 28.14 7".86 0.00

22 3787 70.85 29.15 0.00 4014408 28.87 71.13 0.00

23 3849 71.08 28.92 0.00 4101012 29.62 70.38 0.00

24 3902 71.37 28.63 0.00 4133208 29.92 7O.0S 0.00

25 395s 71.58 28.42 0.00 4224240 30.56 69.44 0.00

26 4001 71.78 28.22 0.00 4267572 30.69 69.31 0.00

21 4043 71.98 28.02 0.00 4338960 31.39 68.61 0.00

28 407 2 n.19 27.81 0.00 4354644 31.63 68.37 0.00

29 4107 72.34 27.66 0.00 4413900 32.31 67.69 0.00

30 4136 72.53 27.47 0.00 4427820 32.52 67.48 0.00

*"* Totat *989481m6

- 124-

Page 27 of 42

Prnto iscviAatO 2 (FIN-O) 30 AA"*

Or INOUMCIOW FINACERAA *

COStO COSTO COStO VALOR VALOR 0 / C VALOR

CONS- OPRACON & EM ENERACION COSTO COSTO * PRESONTE SENEfICI PRESENTE UENEFICIO PRESENTE

AAO TRUCION NANTINIMIENTO CON PtRDIDA NEJORIAS TOTAL COSTO TOTAL FINANCIERO ItNEFICtO COSTO UNTO

00 1o03O62 0 0 0 1073062 1073062 0 0 0.00 -1073C62

01 0 547r4 13131 0 6790s 60630 51784 46236 0.76 .14394

02 -7844 S6241 18617 174 68738 S4797 6S790 S2447 0.96 -23SO

03 *7699 57681 23449 1724 n 1s5 53493 78489 55s67 1.04 2374

04 .7603 59103 266S9 1724 79883 5076 87964 5S902 1.10 5135

05 -7314 60471 34310 1724 89191 50609 1OS531 59881 1.18 9*72

06 -7410 61857 38875 1724 95o46 481S3 117l1i 59534 1.24 11381

07 *6929 63S53 41704 1724 99652 45077 125975 56985 1.26 11908

08 .n1i 64503 44658 174 10367T 41869 134861 54468 1.30 12599

09 -6881 65790 47977 1724 101O0 39166 144190 S1996 1.33 12830

10 *6881 67077 50950 17n 112870 36341 1S2888 49226 1.3S 12885

11 *6929 6373 61102 1m4 124270 3s5ns 15247 S0379 1.41 146S4

l2 -6689 69624 64383 1724 129042 33122 185113 47513 1.43 14391

13 .6448 70830 69405 74 1s351si 3105S 197624 45291 I.46 14236

14 *6400 no2r 72392 174 139743 z5s94 206640 42282 1.48 13688

I$ . 5438 73044 76104 17n4 145434 26570 216383 39533 1.49 12963

16 .5438 74061 80964 124 151311 2462 22822n m336 1.51 12SS4

17 -4331 74871 85128 j3n4 157392 22923 238160 34686 1.51 11763

18 -3994 75618 87318 1724 16066" 20893 244260 31?63 1.52 1087O

19 -3657 76302 89386 1724 163755 19013 249943 29020 1.S3 1000?

20 -3465 76910 91628 1724 166837 1n95 255877 26526 1.53 9231

21 .327n m762 92732 1724 168746 15619 259368 2400? 1.54 83M8

22 -3128 78147 94929 174 1716n 14187l 265097 21908 1.54 m71

a3 -2983 78705 969?r m4 174423 12870 270S04 1960 1.55 r790

24 -2550 79182 9738 1m 176094 11601 273026 17988 1.55 63a8

25 *2550 79659 99891 . 14 178724 10513 278435 16378 1.56 5865

26 -2214 80073 100916 1n4 180499 . 9480 281314 14774 1.56 5294

27 .2021 80451 102604 1m4 182758 8570 285619 13394 1.56 4824

28 .1636 8057 102975 1724 183820 7696 287006 12016 1.56 . 4320

29 -144 81027 104376 172 185683 6941 290527 10861 1.56 3920

30 .13f 81288 104705 1Mm W 186U32 6219 291729 9738 1.57 3519

**total * ^ *

931301 2139201 2115983 49996 5236481 1917532 604512? 108t7795 ' 8V973

I / C flnfncreo 0.57

V.P.N f uMWei1ra -29,73?

. 125 .

Pap 28 of 42

RESUMEN DEL PROYECFO

ESCENARIO 2 (ECO.O) proyactado a 30 afig

Escenario Usos Productivos : Alto

# consumidores 1,190Inversion inicial 1,073,062Inversion x consumidor 902

Econ6mico

V.P.N 1,153,663B/C 1.47T.I.R. 21%

- 126 -

Page 29 of 42

Proyecto ESC2NAR1O 2 (ECO-0) 30 AM1s

RIONTI AMUAL IN RAIUMEN

ARO CONSU %Is % U.P %2S KWH % RA X U.P X ESP

NWOORES WhO 100

01 1190 76.74 21.26 0o00 553300 30.37 69.63 0.00

02 13S3 76.94 23.06 0.00 72n2 2S.39 74.61 0.00

03 1513 73.SS 24.4S 0.00 991608 23.51 76.49 0.00

04 1671 74.45 25.35 0.00 112r376 25.16 74.84 0.00

05 1823 73.67 26.33 0.00 1430908 22.22 77.78 0.00

06 1977 n.84 27.16 0.00 1643964 22.07 77.93 0.00

07 2121 72.37 27.63 0.00 1763604 22.98 77.02 0.00

08 2271 71.73 28.27r 0.00 188524 23.81 76.19 0.00

09 2414 71.25 28.75 0.00 2028864 24.42 7s.38 0.00

10 2ss7 70.r7 29.2s 0.00 2154612 25.19 74.81 0.00

11 2701 70.20 29.80 0.00 2583936 22.89 77.11 0.00

12 2840 69.7s 30.2S 0.00 2722668 24.43 7S.S5 0.00

13 2974 69.40 30.60 0.00 2935020 23.63 76.37 0.00

14 3107 69.01 30.99 0.00 3061356 24.37 75.63 0.00

15 3220 68.98 31.02 0.00 3218340 24.84 7S.16 0.00

16 3333 68.89 31.11 0.00 3423864 24.95 75.05 0.00

17 3423 69.18 30.82 0.00 3599940 2S.26 74.74 0.00

18 3s06 69.S5 30.49 0.00 3692532 26.14 73.86 0.00

19 3582 69.91 30.09 0.00 3779988 27.03 72.97 0.00

20 3654 70.25 29.75 0.00 3874800 27.82 72.18 0.00

21 3722 7o.58 29.42 0.00 3921516 28.14 71.86 0.00

22 3787s 7.SS 29.1S 0.00 4014408 28.87 71.13 0.00

23 3849 71.0.8 28.92 0.00 4101012 29.62 70.38 0.00

24 3902 71.37 28.63 0.00 4133208 29.92 70.08 0.00

2S 3955 71.58 28.42 0.00 4224240 30.56 69.44 0.00

26 4001 71.78 28.22 0.00 42675n 30.69 69.31 0.00

27 4043 71;98 28.02 0.00 4338960 31.39 68.61 0.00

28 4077 n.19 27.81 0.00 4354644 31.63 68.37 0.00

29 4107 72.34 27.66 0.00 4413900 32.31 67.69 0.00

30 4136 n.53 27.47 0.00 4427820 32.52 67.48 0.00

* Total 8 189481756

- 127 -

Page 30 of 42

ProyOcto ISCENAR10 2 (ECO0O) 30 AAo

** MfaORMACtOW ECOONItCA **e

COStO conTo COSTO COStO VALOR VALOR 8 / C VALOR

CONs- OPIRACtON & OENIACION CAPACtOAO COSTO COSTO PRESENTE 8ENEfICIO PRESENTE s8NEtCitO PRESENTE

ARO. TRUCCIO NANttMINS4ENTO CON PiROtDA kVA tEJORtAS TOTAL COSTO TOTAL ECONOMICO UENEFICJO COSTO NETO

00 1073062 0 0 0 0 10o7O62 1073062 0 0 0.00 *1073062

01 0 54774 36192 0 0 90966 81220 205988 183918 2.26 102698

02 -7844 56241 49952 0 174 9673 79459 24368? 19426S 2.44 114806

03 -7699 57681 60896 0 1724 112602 80148 286950 204245 2.55 124097

04 .7603 59103 68040 0 1724 121264 77066 317883 202020 2.62 124954

C5 -7314 60471 863n 0 1724 1412S3 80150 3s93r4 203919 2.54 123769

06 -7410 61857 96704 0 1724 1S2875 77451 392101 198651 2.56 121200

07 -6929 63153 102911 0 1724 160859 2764 426996 1931S1 2.6s 120337

08 . 7218 64503 109312 0 1724 168321 67982 455025 183m 2.70 115795

09 *6881 65790 116719 0 1724 1732 63955 48738 17TS3 2.75 111798

10 -6881 67077 123447 0 1724 185367 59683 5190S1 167121 2.80 107438

11 -6929 68373 147436 * 0 1724 210604 60544 564040 162148 2.68 101604

12 .6689 69624 1S4712 0 1724 219371 56307 591863 151916 2.70 9s609

13 -6448 70830 166088 0 1724 232194 53213 627260 143752 2.70 90539

14 *6400 no27 17287r 0 m4 240228 4915S 6s3957 133812 2.72 84657

is .5438 73044 180984 0 1724 250314 45732 683418 1248ss 2.73 79126

16 -5438 74061 192139 0 1m 262486 4281? 708626 115592 2.70 n777

17 -4331 74871 201597 0 1724 2n3861 39886 733637 1068SO 2.68 66964

18 -3994 73618 206347 0 1724 279695 36371 749803 97s04 2.68 6133

19 -3657 76302 210790 0 m4 285159 33109 763701 88670 2.68 SSS61

20 -346S 76950 215621 0 1724 290830 30149 776790 80527 2.67 50378

21 -3272 M62 218221 0 172 294235 27234 787593 n7o9 2.68 45666

22 -3128 78147 222918 0 1724 299661 24765 800333 66142 2.67 4137?

23 .2983 7870w 22n44 0 172 304690 22482 812580 59958 2.67 37476

14 .2sso 79182 229028 0 1724 307384 202S1 820880 54082 2.67. 33831

3 -2550 79659 233576 0 174 312409 18377 831477 48911 2.66 30534

.6 -2214 0073 23s9n 0 174 31SSSS 16573 839465 44089 2.66 27S16

1r .2021 80451 239408 0 172 319562 14985 848164 39773 2.65 24788

i8 .1636 80757 240274 0 m4 321119 13445 8S3330 3572 2.66 22284

)9 .1444 81027 243543 0 174 324850 12144 85972 32139 2.65 19995

;0 *1395 81288 243791 0 1724 325408 10861 863779 28831 2.65 17970

T* otal **931301 2139201 .5032711 0 49996 8153209 2441340 18864858 3s95003 1153663

/ C eeondmo 1.47

V.P.N ecofndmIca 1,153.663

.128-

Page 31 of 42

RESUMEN DEL PROYECIO

ESCENARIO 3 (FIN-P) proyectado a 30 ahos

Escenario Usos Productivos : Normal

# consumidores 1,139Inversion inicial 1,689,391Inversion x consumidor 1,484

Financiero

V.P.N -1,549,145B/C 0.35

_ 129-

Pag 32 of 42

Prgyea ESCElARIG 3 (FIN-PI 30 MoA

REPORTE ANUAL EN RESURE"

440 CSUV %Rll 2 U.P X V KIW %RES X U.F ESP

iDgREs VEIOtOG

01 1139 82.27 17.7T 0.00 512100 32.93 67.07 0.00

42 1267 82.08 17.92 0.00 63072 31.54 68.46 0.00

03 1399 11.63 16.37 0.00 804790 29.95 1.t05 0.00

04 1523 81.62 18.38 0.00' t00480 31.47 68.53 0.00

05 1643 $1.68 18.32 0.00 10'6368 31.08 68.92 0.00

06 1767 81.44 18.56 0.00 1152P.04 31.46 8.854 0.00

07 1887 81.29 18.7I 0.00 1325004 ;0.56 61.44 0.00

08 2001 61.31 18.69 0.00 1515072 29.64 70.36 0.0

09 2116 01.19 19.81 0.00 1601140 30.90 6940 0.00

10 222 81.76 18.74 0.01665036 32.59 67.42 0.00

to 2335 81.11 18.89 0.00 1756584 33.64 66.36 0."0

i2 2440 81.07 18.95 0.00 18601 35.35 64.U 0.00

13 2440 81.01 18.99 0.00 1945836 35.59 64.4± 0.00

14 2647 60.88 1.12 0.00 2030616 36.69 63.31 0.00

15 2745 60.84 19.16 0.00 2109972 37.86 62.4 0.00

16 2844 80.63 19.37 0.00 2222820 3.3 61.63 0.00

17 2940 80.44 19.56 0.00 2314092 39,24 40.76 0,00

8 30la 80.62 19.38 0.00 2384484 40.41 59.59 0.00

19 3097 80.69 19.31 0.00 24591 41.50 l6-so 0.00

20 3177 80.67 19.33 0.00 2547864 42.25 57.75 0.00

21 3245 80.80 19.20 0.00 259986t 42.36 57.64 0.00

22 3317 80.74. 19.26 0.00 2677668 43.21 56.79 0.0

23 3575 80.93 1M.48 0.00 2753028 44.04 55.96 0.00

24 3428 81.10 L1.9 0.00 2779160 44.4t 55-.5 0.00

25 3479 61.20 16.80 0.00 295972 45.04 54.96 0.00

26 3127 81.26 18.74 0.00 286346 45.09 74.91 0.00

27 3569 81.37 19.63 0.00 2969114 45.77 54.23 0.00

28 3403 51.52 18.46 0.00 2992368 45.93 54.07 0.04

29 3636 91.15 16.45 0.40 305906 46.52 13.48 0.00

30 3674 61.65 16.35 0.00 303821 46.54 53,4 0,0

tIn Totel Its6147774

_ 130 _

Page 33 of 42

Provecto £SC(NARiO 3 Ft*P} 30 mos

tilt INFORMACION FtNANCIERA *1

COSTO COSTO COSTO VALOR VAL I 1 C VALRCGNS- OPERACION A 6VNRACItON COSTO COS.O PRESENTE SENEFICI0 PRESENTE PENEFICIO PRESENTE

TRIICCON HANTENINIENTO CON PERID(' MUChRtAS t3TA4 COSTO TOTAL FIANCtERO 3NEFICtO COSTO NETO

939391 0 0 750000 1689391 1689391 0 0 0.00 -16893914 543P5 7857 4000 66172 42653 48218 43053 0.69 -l1600

-6160 S54b7 9i?$ 5723 64205 5574 56266 44854 0.80 -10094-6352 16655 l0846 5723 66874 S1674 66615 4?415 0.92 -4259-5967 57771 12215 5723 69742 47960 73219 46531 0.97 -1429-5774 58891 13486 5723 72296 44265 61592 46298 1.05 2033-5967 59967 15273 5723 74996 40695 19245 45215 l.ll 4320-5774 61047 16301 5723 77297 37554 9916 44866 1.19 7312-5486 62013 17363 5723 79673 34491 1"704 440 1.28 9817-5534 63108 189 572 ' 82265 31730 115747 41740 L.32 10010-5245 64049 20048 5123 84615 29087 1206t 38835 l.34 9740-5293 65079 21587 5723 97096 26664 127223 36574 1.37 9890-5053 66024 23829 5723 90523 24705 135306 34730 1.41 10025-5005 66960 24898 572 92576 22520 14046 32191 1.43 9663-4956 67087 26226 572'3 9480 2056 144679 30013 1.46 9427-4716 48769 27555 5723 97331 18826 152543 27870 1.48 "42-4764 6960 29425 5723 100044 17253 15"62 2642 1.51 -4619 70524 30862 5n2 102490 15760 16601 24233 1.4 413-373 71226 3191O 572$ 105106 14412 171365 22284 1.55 7872-3801 71957 33121 1723 106987 1308 176512 20495 1.57 741-3650 12657 34819 5723 109349 11929 182530 18922 1.59 993-S273 73249 3543 5m 11355 10637 1862?3 L7241 L.5" 6404-346: 73917 36677 5723 112852 9719 191575 15832 1.62 6033-2791 74439 31002 5723 115373 "35 196367 14469 1.62 555-2550 74916 39427 5723 116516 8053 198431 1007 1.63 5034-2454 75371 3972? 5723 118373 729 203543 11974 1.64 4675-2310 75807 40272 5723 11492 6577 206274 10933 1.65 4256-2021 76115 41530 5723 121417 5962 210557 986 1." 3911-1436 76491 41950 5123 122536 5370 212275 a86 1.64 3518-1588 7678 43l73 5723 124096 4053 2162lO 6403 1.67 3230-1826 17130 43705 5723 124130 4355 213541 7295 1.69 2m40

Ttatl 1*1t17406 2039393 824862 91967 460638 2383259 44542$ 334114 -1549145

9 I C flnacier, 0.3,V.P.0 ftlnancle -1,549.145

- 131 -

ANNEX IPage 34 of 42

RESUMEN DEL PROYECIO

ESCENARIO 3 (ECO-P) proyectado a 30 afios

Escenario Usos Productvos : Normal

c consumidores 1,139Inversi6n inicial : 1,689,391Inversi6n x consumidor 1,484

Economico

V.P.N 272,199B/C 1.10

- 132-

Page 35 of 42

P'YovctO ESCEIAk10 3 I!C04) 50 Afis

REPORTE ANJAL EN RESUEN

AAG CONUU- %RES Z U.P I E Kum X RES X U.P tEiPNIORES VCJd;D!D

0t 1139 62.27 17.73 0.00 512100 32.93 41.07 0,0002 1267 82.08 17.92 0.00 633072 31.54 68.46 0.0003 199 61.63 18.37 0.0 804780 28.9 71.05 0.0004 152l 81.62 18.38 0.00 t00480 31.47 68.53 0.0005 1643 81.68 10.32 0.00 1036368 31.08 68.92 0.0006 1767 81.44 18.56 0.00 1152804 31.46 60.54 o.O007 1687 81.29 18.71 0.00 1325004 SO.56 69.44 0.00

08 2001 81.31 18.69 0.00 .515012 29.64 70.36 0.009 2116 81.19 19.81 0.40 1401160 30.90 69.10 040010 2225 81.26 18.74 0.00 145036 32.58 67.42 0.00it 2335 81.11 19.6 0.0 1756584 33.,4 64.36 0.0012 2440 81.0? 18.93 0.00 1980136 35.35 64.65 0.0

I3 2544 St0k 18.99 0.00 194583 33.59 64.41 0.0014 2647 80.88 19.12 0.00 2030616 3.69 63.31 0.00

Is 2745 80.84 19.16 0.00 2109972 31.86 62.4 0.01 2844 80.63 19.7 0.00 222820 38.37 061.63 0.0017 2940 60.44 19.-5 0.0 2314092 39.24 60.76 0.401i 3018 80.62 19.8 0.90 2384484 40.41 59.5? 0.0019 3097 80.49 19.1 0.00 2456914 41.59 50. 50 0.0020 317 60.67 1.9.33 0.00 2541784 42.21 57.75 0.0021 345 80.80 19.20 0.00 2599894 42A. 57,64 0.0022 3317 80.74 19.26 0.0 2677666 43.21 56.79 0.023 3375 80.92 19.0 0.0 2753026 44.04 55.96 0.0

24 3428 61.10 1.90 0.0 2779188 44.U4 55.f? 0.025 3479 61.20 18.80 0.00 2819972 45.04 54.9 0.0

2 3527 81.26 16.74 0.00 28934 45." 34.91 0.02 319 61.3 19.63 0.00 2969124 45.77 54.23 0.026 3*3 81.52 18.46 0.00 2993 45.93 54.07 0.029 3436 61.55 1S.45 0 305 06 .52 5.3.40 0.0030 -3674 01.65 16.35 0.0 3093628 46.54 53.4 0.008$0 Total I$I

41477704

- 133-

Page 36 of 42

Pgto ESCENatIG (ECOPi SO AR.S

s$it INFWOR N EMCMA H*I

COsTo COSTo COSTo COTO VALOR VALl 3 I C VALORCONS- OPNACION & NtAION CAAC6 COSTO CoSiO PRESWN StENICIO EENTE BMEICIG PRESENtERCCON ONTElIIIENTD CON PFERDIA kVA NEJORTAS TOTAL Casio TOTAL CO OCO SEEiCtO caSt: NETO

939391 o 0 75000 1689391 18939L 0 0 0.00 *1609190 54315 21656 0 4000 19971 74974 190M 170344 2.27 95372

-*lbO 55447 24420 0 5723 79450 67102 214319 171013 2.52 10111-6352 WS66 2017$ 0 5723 8499 64006 246418 L1S53 2.74 11130-5967 57771 3117) 0 5723 60702 60*o1 2b9575 171319 2.65 t1l309-574 56051 3949 0 5723 92749 676 2437 HAW617 2.6 110741*5967 596? 3791 0 5723 9r714 52405 319560 1618" 3.09 109494-574 6104? 40226 0 3723 141222 4*77 34260 155101 3.11 l04724-546 62047 42500 0 5723 104010 4464 369056 149379 3.35 104736-554 63108 46146 0 5723 109443 41531 3974 14090 3.39 99459-5245 64069 48575 0 5723 113142 31271 407607 151238 3.43 92167-5293 65079 52009 0 5S23 1175" ss35 427n43 U2 3.47 87519-o5n 6" 4 571 0 5723 123955 33216 452644 116102 3.49 02196-05 66960 959t 0 5723 12719 30477 4669 1077 3.52 7602496 687 62626 0 5723 131282 2034 48744 9002 3.56 71748

-416 6876 655 0 5723 135s05 2576 50 92320 3.50 654-47U4 69660 69 0 sn7 14044 23843 5230 6 0 3.58 614-4619 10524 73086 0 5723 144714 21910 54119 7090 3.60 36-3753 722 74* 0 sm 14645 20069 555231 721 3.60 52132*So1 7193 . 70122 0 57n 151981 103 5706 621 3.62 47-3650 72657 91936 0 sm 156460 6 50674 607 3.42 43974-3I1 73269 0341 0 73 1"50 l13 97M2 3.61 390-3465 73917 6412 0 5723 142303 136 bAWiO 50 so2 L64 334-2791 744O MN 0 52 1I6421 12 6U11 411 3.41 74-255 7416 90045 0 .723 16814 11454 694 4141 3.62 02-2454 75375 929" 31 $723 lt7OO 10431 63651 $726 . 3L 2715-2310 750 94167 0 5723 173 9407 641957 34031 3.S 2464-2021 76165 4 t0 O . 7 670 66 656401 30711 3.60 222-1N36 76491 97901 .0 523 1749 72 61342 2769 3.59 1970-150 7l 100734 0 5123 1 5" T00M 66934 22n2 .7 16017-162 71130 101760 0 M3 162765 6292 675114 22 30 14242

611446 103030 1963733 57 919967 3739546 2594096 14574931 26t629 252

V.P.1 gCaa4ice M7.L9

134 -

ANNEX 10Page 37 of 42

RESUMEN DEL PROYECTO

ESCENARIO 3 (FIN.O) proyectado a 30 aiios

Escenario Usos Productivos : Alto

v consumidores 1.190Inversi6n inicial 1,686,937Inversi6n x consumidor :1418

Financiero

V.P.N -1,357,178B/C 0.44

_ 135 -

Page 38 of 42

Proect6o EICEI0RtO 3 tttZ*01 S o

REP0RT6 ANUAL EN RESUNEN

A.- CONSU- Z RES X U.P I ESP KW ES U.P t ESP

NIORES VEfDlDO

01 1190 78.74 21.26 0.00 555300 3.37 74.63 0.00

42 135b 76.98 23.02 0.0 785314 25.43 74.54 0."0

0 3 1513 75.48 24.32 0,00 993144 23.49 76.54 0.00

04 1671 74.39 25.M1 0.00 . 1135548 24.96 ,5.04 0.00

Os 1023 73.61 26.39 0.00 14554&S 22.13 77,81 0.00

06 1975 72.86 27.14 0.00 1641972 22.08 77.92 0.00

07 2120 12.36 27.64 0.00 1763340 22.57 77.03 0.00

08 2270 71.67 28.33 0.00 1906212 23.54 76,44 0.00

09 2413 71,20 26.,8 0.00 2036688 24,29 75.71 0.00

1o 2557 70.71 29.9 0.00 2172612 24.97 75.ra 0.00

11 2698 70,20 29,00 0.00 2547312 23.20 7&,80 0.00

12 2837 69.72 0.28 0.00 21216 24.42 75.56 0.00

1' 2971 69.37 30.63 0.04 2931768 23.62 76.38 0.00

14 3105 68.95 31.05 0.00 3066468 24.30 75.70 0,00

Li 321 68.93 3l.07 0.00 223776 24.79 75.22 0.00

$ ;333I 60.84 31.16 0.00 3428904 24.06 75.12 0.00

17 3422 49.11 30.89 0.00 3608928 25.16 74.84 0.00

18 3500 69.51 30.49 0.00 3689448 26.11 7J.9f 0,00

19 3577 69.86 30.14 0.00 377"949 26,99 73.01 0.00

20 3650 70.22 29.78 0.00 3873120 27.79 72.21 0.00

21 3718 70.52 29.48 0o.0 3927816 204 71.0 4 0.0

22 3782 70.81 29.19 0.00 4012248 26.83 71.17 0.00

23 3644 71.05 18.95 .0.09 4096M 29.58 70.42 0.00

24 3697 71.34 28.66 000 4130988 29.80 70.12 0.00

25 3949 714. 2a.46 O.0 4221504 30.52 69.48 0,00

26 3995 71.74 2.26 0.00 42648U. 30.64 .36 0.00

27 4037 71.93 26.07 0.00 4336152 31.34 68.64 0.0

26 4ot1 72.14 27.86 0.00 4351836 31.8 68.42 0.00

29 4100 72.32 27,61 0.00 4402620 $2.33 67.67 0.00

s0 4136 72.53 27.47 0.00 447820 32.32 67.48 0.00

M Total I1t89489628

- 136 -

Page 39 of 42

Ps.tu IScNARO 3 'ftrN*0 30 Mo,

8im I:NFoAcIO fPAiCRA t288

Cas78 cosro COSro YOUR VALOR I I c. * Vpi.o

CONS- oPU ACN WAfCI cos Cro CQScota PA£NIIII UNNC PRESENTE ENEFICIO PRESETE

ANO TRUCCWtM NUTNlIENTO CON PFIAlCA HJORIAS TOTAL CCST0 TOTAL FtNANCt SENEFICIO COStO !4t(O

0 93093 O 0 5000 1686937 86937 0 0 0.00 '166937

1 0 54174 8201t 4iW 4.975 65370 51783 46236 0.73 -17134

2 -7741 54223 105 S723 I4t9 55018 65653 52337 0.94 -3401

* 3 -775 57611 12447 s523 68076 52529 78570 55924 1.04 395

4 .402 $9103 1450$ 5723 1.t29 4922 66331 54135 1.14 6913

5 n7314 4047t 14690 5723 75270 455S8 105742 4001 1.31 1404$

6 -715 6639 20040 5723 10287 43574 1lJ370 Si464 z.U& ISs

7 -6978 4314 218n 5ns 13741 40419 125944 497 0 1.41 144tt

8 -7216 64494 24402 ?23 87401 ;612 U13524 41777 1.44 1716

9 -4301 45731 2404 57li 90707 34774 144523 52111 1.50 17M4M

O -692 67107 28040 5723 9391L 3206* 12402 40461 1.54 17401

1 -6405 68346 31121 51723 98403 295 17351 4"903 1.67 S9

2 66 49)t7 33302 5723 101913 274 16501 4747 1 . .72 19854

3 -I4* 70 37415 5723 ?10143 2N463 197424 452U 1.74 19261

4 -i4 noo7 3952 5723 110846 23853 003 423W 1.7 18470

5 . 7303on 41942 5723 115214 U205 211AS 957 1.79 17410

6 .3 74043 4613* 5723 120107 20591 2284+f 37267 1.1 1667

7 -m37o 72 *944 572 12703 19141 205" 34745 1.2 15.t44

8 *ns3 7s5U 5078 5723 2t314 1740 2439 3m 1.82 14297

9 305 4257 525 723 130420 15 24175 219 1.03 1316

o ;nX 76914 54100 SM 133232 1405 255725 26510 1.84 12105

1 3272 772 5457 5723 134534 120 259574 24026 1.05 11444

2 -30 71102 16142 57n 13480 W11U 264"2 2162 1.1 101046

3 -20 I0 54 s7 13914S 10699 210307 194 1.7? 92

4 -256* 79t. 9154 52 140464 9431 272 15 1.7 644

5 -250W n9 50 sn5 1472 632 273194 146 1.87 763

6 -2214 40t52 52 14411 7869O 2110n 14741 1." 091

7 -2021 " 6183 7m 145931 7112 2637 136 1.66 4210

8 -1344 7a M2 5723 146071 630 284741 12004 1.80 51

9 -13 *4 4291 5723 llU4 1 57S 2801 1V 1 5W

O -173 2 57:?23 14005 5146 291M2 9 1.6 450

$S$TOTALS$"mi77 213414 125o? 99947 50b694 2445325 0431 141147 .135?710

SI C tft 1oa 0.44V.P.N ftonaie -1,357.17

137 -

ANNEX 10Page 40 of 42

RESUM DEL PROYECFO

ESCENARIO 3 (EC-0s) proyectado a 30 aftos

Escenario Usos Productivos : Alto

* consumidores 1,190inversi6n inicial 1,686,987Inversi6n x consunidor 1,418

Econ6mico

V,PN 866,702B/C 1.32

- 138 -

Page 41 of 42

-Ptoyicto £SC!NARIO 30C1201 30 Aos

-*RPORTE ANUAL EN RESUEN

AM COtsU- t RES 7 U.P Z ESP IiM f let X.U.Pt lip

NHIMES WENDZDO

01 1190 78.74 2l.26 0.00 555300 30.37 69.63 0.0002 1351 76.99 23.02 0.00 785340 25.43 74.57 0.0003 1513 75.48 24.52 0.00 "3144 2S.46 76.54 0.0004 1671 74.39 25.61 0.00 1135548 24.96 75.04 0.0005 1823 73.61 26.39 0.00 1455468 22.1A MU6 0.0006 L975 72.96 27.14 0.00 1641972 22.06 77.92 0.0007 2120 72.36 27.64 0.00 L763340 22.97 77.03 0.00

06 2270 71.67 26.33 0.00 L906272 23.56 76.44 0.0009 2413 7l.20 26.80 0.00 2*36686 24.29 75.71 0.0010 2557 70.71 29.29 0.00 2172412 24.97 7'.03 0.00

1I 2698 70.20 29.60 0.00 25473l2 23.20 76,80 0.0012 2637 69.72 30.28 0.00 2721660 24.42 75.58 0.0013 2971 69.37 30.63 0.00 2931768 23.62 76.38 0.0014 3105 68.95 31.05 0.o0 3066468 24.30 ?5.70 0.00is 3219 68.93 t1.07 0.00 322376 24.76 75. 22 0.0016 3331 686,4 31.16 0.00 342804 24.66 75.12 0.00

17 3422 69.11 30.69 0.00 3604926 25.16 74.94 0.00

16 3500 69.1 30.4 0.00 3689446 26.11 fl.89 0.00

It 3511 69.66 30.14 0.00 3777948 26.99 73.01 0.00

20 X360 70.22 29.76 0.00 3673120 2V.79 12.21 0.0021 3716 70.52 29.4 0.00 3927101 28.04 71.% 0.0022 3782 70.81 29.19 0.00 4012246 28.83 71.17 0.00

23 3644 71.05 28.95 0.00. 4098792 29.58 70.42 0.0024 3867 71.34 .28.6 0.00 413090 29.8 70.12 0.00

25 3949 71.54 28.46 0.00 4221504 30.52 69.46 0.0026 399 71.74 28.26 0.00 426466 30.64 69.36 0.00

27 .4037 71.93 26.07 0.00 4336152 31.34 68.66 0.0029 471 72.14 27.96 0.00 435113 31.V 6.42 0.04

29 4100 72.32 27.66 0.00 4402620 32.33 67.67 0.0030 4136 72.53 27.4? 0.00 4427M20 32,82 67.48 0.00

1n total $8489489626

- 139 -

10Page 42 of 42

Provecto ESCEMAAIO 3 fECO-0l 30 Ages

BUSl IWMQRnCIW ECOKOfICA $111

COSTS COSTO COSTS COSTo VALOR VALOR 8 I C VALORCONS- f0(RACION 6 GSENRACON CAPACIGA COStM COStO "ESENTI WFIC?0 PRESTE IEREFCIt PRESe

tRUCClON NATENNI4ENTO CON PPOtOA kVA NEJORCAS MTAL OSTO TOTAL ECONONICO BCNICIO COSTS N8TO

0O9$J O0 0 150000 1686937 1686937 0 0 0.00 -1686970 54774 22602 0 4000 81176 78229 205"8 103917 2.4t 107688

-7147 56223 26a70 0 5123 8069 69190 243451 194077 2.80 12486-7795 57680 11376 0 5723 87985 66700 286931 204232 Ma06 137512-.702 59103 37020 0 5723 94244 63531 318153 202191 3.18 13840-7;14 60471 41260 0 723 100140 60070 160882 204774 3.41 144704-7315 618"9 49951 0 5123 110091 879 39163 198531 3.36 139852-6978 63144 51$73 0 5123 l15862 550 426866 191092 3.51 138092-2n8 64494 59730 0 5723 122729 51880 460093 165824 3.58 133944-6891 65761 43459 0 5723 120 482S1 467514 1753 3.64 12752-929 61077 67938 0 5723 133809 44926 524246 LI17 3.74 123868-6785 88346 75091 0 5123 l42377 42537 5218 161415 3.80 190-6689 69597 80024 0 5t23 148655 39625 591466 151614 3.8 . 112189-6448 70803 84102 0 5123 1.5780 3793* 42746 14343 3.7 0570-6448 72009 94476 0 5723 l65760 3508 65359 13793 1.91 9704-548 73035 99743 0 52s * 1715 32655 641 124864 3.62 92M-5389 14043 109472 0 5723 183849 30923 70825 115574 3.74 84453-437 7462 117214 0 5723 1.9342L 29004 7342 106866 3.6 7781-3754 754 120005 0 5723 19753 26432 747974 972 3.6 70834-3705 76257 123441 0 5723 201714 24065 763021 8"2 3.66 645*7-3511 76914 1273 * 5721 206452 1199 774244 6041L 3.6 87&-327 7526 126 0 5723 2083"6 l981 n6710 77 3.68 505-3060 78102 31837 0 5123 21252 18042 799647 60 3.66 40-2"3 78660 135312 0 5723 216712 16413 11189 590 3.5 43494-255* 79137 116270 0 57?23 21 1477 8191 4034 3.66 3925-203 79605 144056 0 5123 222 13447 830646 480 3.43 35413-2214 0019 1416 0 512s 225188 12127 185 44045 3.63 31916-2021 84397 14427 0 52m U2 4 10971 84?33 9734 3.62 2675*163 80103 144656 5723 229646 54 852496 35493 3.62 2539-1395 864 6299 8)27 5121 1s3 '013 854 3204 5.28 26021-1732 III= 14n12 0 57 23249 7l 5 66379 2 3.6 206

Toa $tS, 795177 2130418 204360 . 527 919967 6666449 2731184 19866635 35979 8J6402

I I ic@ Ke ic@ 1.32V.P.N eco6siuce 866.702

.140-

ANNEX 11Page 1 of 2

PROPOSED PRODUCTIVE USES COMPONENT

BackgrMd

Historically rural electrification has been viewed as an "infrastructure activity consisting mainly ofconstcting transmission and distrbution lines and, in some projects, facilitating house connectionsand wiring. A project's 'worth" was measured on such criteria as cost per consumer and "scess"was a light bulb in each house.

A review of rural electrification in Bolivia (and other parts of the world) shows that many projectshave not produced the optimal economic stimulus in the rural communities. Few users haveadvanced in use of electrical energy beyond simple lighting. 'Me income-generating, economicallybeneficial 'productive uses" of electricity simply have not materiaized in many areas. Whilerecognzing the social benefit of house lighting, one must assess the economic viabilit of continuedinvestment in rural electrification projects where productive uses of electrcity are not promoted.

The introduction of such simple uses of electricity as water pumps, grain mills, coffee de-pulpersand the like can significantly increase the economic benefit of rural electrification projects byproviding a means by which electricity can serve to increase productivity in the ruml areas.

Recommendations for the Asunta Rural ,lBlectrfiti Proect

in an effort to maximize the economic impact associated with the proposed rural electrificationproject in the Asunta Valley, an aggressive program of productive uses promotion is recommended.The eat implementation of such recommendations will depend on fin consl tction plans, otherdevelopment-related activities in the region, and avaiabilit of funds.

Training of CEY Personnel in Productive Uses Promotion

The long-term sustainability of rural electrification projects falls in the hands of the institutions whowil support the activity after initial construction. In this case, depending on the decison to executethe prcject, would be the Cooperativa Electrica de las Yungas (CEY). In this regard, staff mustbe trained in basic concepts of consumer servnices and productives uses promotion.

Credit Mechlanisms

A common limitation of productive use activities is lack of capital for initial investment. Ruralconsumers are often considered "high risk* by conventional credit institutions due to lack ofcollateraL Additionally, credit amounts for electric equipment and micro-enterprise start-up aretypically too small to entice traditional credit institutions. Credit must be made avaBable to provideopportunity for productive use activities.

* 141-

ANNEX1Page 2 of 2

If one assumes 200 productive use activities are expected in the first few years of the elecificationproject, and an average credit need of $500/activity, a $100,000 credit line would be required.Obviously, some larger productive use activities, such as small minig operations, would requiresigonifcantly greater investment On the other hand, one could argue that not all 200 actieswould require credit. Also funds for administration of the credit must be allocated.

Demonstration and Promotion

The promotion of productive uses of electricity requires continued hands-on demonstration andinformation exchange with rural people. The determination of appropriate productive use activitiesfor promotion and subsequent demonstration and promotion must be carried out by field personnelActual demonstration of productive uses of electricity have proven successful in other areas,particularly Central America. These demonstrations also serve as a hub for other interventionssuch as credit facilitation (wse above). In Central America a portable demonstration unit wasdeveloped.

iinkage, with other Developent Organiaon

Too often ural electrification projects do not coordinate their efforts with other developmentorganizaions. This lack of communication often results in duplication, or complete omission, ofneeded grass-roots interventions to support micro-business enterprises related to productive usesof electricity. In Bol, there are several NGO, PVO and government agencies interested in ruraldevelopment that have goals similar to those of a productive uses progam; micro and small-business promotion, agaricultural development, training, credit, marketing assistance and the like.Evety effort should be made to coordinate the interests of these agencies with the proposed ruralelectrification project

Technical Assistance

The experiences of others regarding promotion of productve uses of electicity should be exploited.Technical assistance in creation, implementation, and insttutonaliadon of a sound productive usespromotion program is needed. Assistance in all the above-mentioned interventions wil be required.Sociologists, rural electrification engineers, productive uses specialsts and women-in-developmentspecialists must be involved to assure a culturally sensidve, tecnalBy sound, economicallysustainable productive uses promotion program.

A concentrated 2 year support period is reasonable with local and exatriate technicians,economists, sociologist and women-in-development seal

It is important to emphasie that the above-mentioned interventions are applicable to the entireYungas region and, with emphasis on training CEY personneL the Interventions could have asignificant impact in the region.

* 142

COOPERATIVA ELEOTRICA YUNGASoa@seo l . CLY. '

Odft ELEGTRFC1 RURAL NOR Y SW YUNGS(SIN ISCALA)

a gem NNW-"~~~~~~~S uS bbaiX3 ; ;i. _ , ~~- ~ .|._r) > \~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~P

¢"--^^< 9t $Zb #ib b &~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~L#

IBRD 22437a,. /,

B R A Z I L BOLIVIA

P&tvft UNDP TECHNICALASSISTANCE PROJECT

To RWlo ro/ ' S % RHO J 2 / G DtGLopstilirim |gUNDP Proiect Site

ROADS

\, 9 DR 9 > \ t - Main______i Secondory---- n--- s T2c

0 lawnsHwi s Notional Captial

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P E R U dll- V gesws LS g '.+ j ,_ t LVolleysPMW 1> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Lowlands

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f ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~LENTV IsllTAI T8 f ., V ? fS|'_\ - "

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