Predictive Predictive Modeling of Modeling of

Northern Northern Spotted Owl Spotted Owl

Home RangesHome RangesPresented

byElizabeth Willy

USFWS File Photo

Presentation OverviewPresentation Overview

Northern Spotted Owl Northern Spotted Owl (NSO) (NSO)

ModelsModels Study AreaStudy Area DataData Methods and AnalysisMethods and Analysis Research RelevanceResearch Relevance Potential ChallengesPotential Challenges

Northern Spotted Owl Northern Spotted Owl

Listed as Threatened in 1990Listed as Threatened in 1990

HabitatHabitat

SurveysSurveys

ConservationConservation

Christy Cheyne, Klamath National Forest

NSO Project Objectives Models Study Area Data Methods and Analysis Research Relevance Potential Challenges

Current Method to Assess Effects Current Method to Assess Effects of Human Activities to NSOof Human Activities to NSO

NSO territories are NSO territories are centered on an centered on an ‘activity center’‘activity center’

0.5-mile core area0.5-mile core area

1.3-mile radius 1.3-mile radius home rangehome range

Radio telemetry Radio telemetry studiesstudies

NSO Project Objectives Models Study Area Data Methods and Analysis Research Relevance Potential Challenges

Research Question:Research Question:

Is there a way to describe home Is there a way to describe home ranges for Northern Spotted Owls ranges for Northern Spotted Owls

that does not use circles?that does not use circles?

NSO Project Objectives Models Study Area Data Methods and Analysis Research Relevance Potential Challenges

Project ObjectivesProject Objectives

Refine the current circle-based analysis methodRefine the current circle-based analysis method Telemetry dataTelemetry data Abiotic attributes:Abiotic attributes:

NSO Project Objectives Models Study Area Data Methods and Analysis Research Relevance Potential Challenges

Modeling scenariosModeling scenarios Abiotic-only Abiotic-only Habitat-only Habitat-only Abiotic + HabitatAbiotic + Habitat

ValidationValidation Testing with reserved telemetry pointsTesting with reserved telemetry points

AspectAspect CurvatureCurvature Distance to Distance to streamstream Solar radiationSolar radiation

ElevationElevation Slope Slope percent percent Slope Slope positionposition

ModelsModels

NSO Project Objectives Models Study Area Data Methods and Analysis Research Relevance Potential Challenges

Maximum Entropy Maximum Entropy (Maxent) Model(Maxent) Model

Adapted from Phillips et al. 2006

Species DistributionsSpecies Distributions

Occurrence Localities

Predicted Potential Distribution

Environmental Variables

…+

HexSim HexSim ModelModel

Population SimulatorPopulation Simulator

Adapted from Schumaker 2009

Study AreasStudy AreasNSO Project Objectives Models Study Area Data Methods and Analysis Research Relevance Potential Challenges

Topography and Telemetry Points:Topography and Telemetry Points:Hilt and Goosenest Study AreasHilt and Goosenest Study Areas

NSO Project Objectives Models Study Area Data Methods and Analysis Research Relevance Potential Challenges

DataData

Vector DataVector Data Telemetry pointsTelemetry points Activity center Activity center

pointspoints StreamsStreams Vegetation/HabitatVegetation/Habitat

Raster DataRaster Data 10-meter Digital 10-meter Digital

Elevation Models Elevation Models (DEMs)(DEMs)

NSO Project Objectives Models Study Area Data Methods and Analysis Research Relevance Potential Challenges

Data Pre-processingData Pre-processing

NSO Project Objectives Models Study Area Data Methods and Analysis Research Relevance Potential Challenges

Obtain Data

Vector:Activity Center PtsStreamsTelemetry PtsVegetation/Habitat

Raster:10-m DEMs

Project all data to NAD83

Mosaic DEM TilesTelemetry

data exploration Generate

abiotic surfaces

Slope Position

Extract raster values to points

Review frequency distributions of extracted data

Explore correlations between abiotic features and vegetation/habitat

Convert and input data into models

Stream cost weighted distance

AspectSlope Curvature Solar Radiation

Maxent Modeling: Abiotic-onlyMaxent Modeling: Abiotic-only

Input occurrence dataInput occurrence data Telemetry pointsTelemetry points

Input abiotic variablesInput abiotic variables AspectAspect CurvatureCurvature Distance to streamDistance to stream ElevationElevation Slope percentSlope percent Slope positionSlope position Solar radiationSolar radiation

NSO Project Objectives Models Study Area Data Methods and Analysis Research Relevance Potential Challenges

Maxent Modeling: Habitat-onlyMaxent Modeling: Habitat-only

Input occurrence Input occurrence datadata Telemetry pointsTelemetry points

Input habitat Input habitat variablesvariables Habitat Habitat

NSO Project Objectives Models Study Area Data Methods and Analysis Research Relevance Potential Challenges

Nesting/roosting

Foraging

Non-habitat

Maxent Modeling: Abiotic + Maxent Modeling: Abiotic + HabitatHabitat

Input occurrence dataInput occurrence data Telemetry pointsTelemetry points

Input abiotic variablesInput abiotic variables AspectAspect CurvatureCurvature Distance to stream Distance to stream ElevationElevation Slope percent Slope percent Slope positionSlope position Solar radiationSolar radiation

Input habitat variablesInput habitat variables HabitatHabitat

NSO Project Objectives Models Study Area Data Methods and Analysis Research Relevance Potential Challenges

Nesting/roosting

Foraging

Non-habitat

Maxent Model OutputsMaxent Model Outputs

Probability surfaceAnalysis of variable contribution

Raw data

Species responses for individual variables

NSO Project Objectives Models Study Area Data Methods and Analysis Research Relevance Potential Challenges

HexSim ModelHexSim Model

Input dataInput data Nest pointsNest points HexMap of spatial HexMap of spatial

data from Maxentdata from Maxent

NSO Project Objectives Models Study Area Data Methods and Analysis Research Relevance Potential Challenges

HexSim Model: Range ParametersHexSim Model: Range Parameters

Maximum search radiusMaximum search radius

Maximum area searchedMaximum area searched

NSO Project Objectives Models Study Area Data Methods and Analysis Research Relevance Potential Challenges

HexSim Model: Search ParametersHexSim Model: Search Parameters

Uniform Uniform

NSO Project Objectives Models Study Area Data Methods and Analysis Research Relevance Potential Challenges

Optimal Optimal Greedy Greedy

HexSim Model OutputsHexSim Model Outputs

MapsMaps

Spatial dataSpatial data

Simulation dataSimulation data

NSO Project Objectives Models Study Area Data Methods and Analysis Research Relevance Potential Challenges

AnalysisAnalysis

Evaluate Maxent probability Evaluate Maxent probability distributionsdistributions

Testing with reserved telemetry dataTesting with reserved telemetry data

Compare HexSim home ranges to circlesCompare HexSim home ranges to circles

Assess research questionAssess research question

NSO Project Objectives Models Study Area Data Methods and Analysis Research Relevance Potential Challenges

Research RelevanceResearch Relevance

Refine current circle-based analysis methodRefine current circle-based analysis method Likelihood of useLikelihood of use Extent of useExtent of use Degree of effectsDegree of effects

Repeatable methodsRepeatable methods

Future applicationsFuture applications Landscape level assessments of potential for Landscape level assessments of potential for

NSO occupancyNSO occupancy Habitat restoration activitiesHabitat restoration activities Prescribed fire and fuels management Prescribed fire and fuels management

NSO Project Objectives Models Study Area Data Methods and Analysis Research Relevance Potential Challenges

Potential ChallengesPotential Challenges

Maxent and HexSim modelsMaxent and HexSim models Permission for some data can be Permission for some data can be

revoked revoked Too much dataToo much data Addition of abiotic variables Addition of abiotic variables Abiotic variables may not be important Abiotic variables may not be important

to NSOto NSO Time!!Time!!

NSO Project Objectives Models Study Area Data Methods and Analysis Research Relevance Potential Challenges

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

Brian Woodbridge, U.S. Fish and Wildlife ServiceBrian Woodbridge, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Jeff Dunk, Humboldt State UniversityJeff Dunk, Humboldt State University Nathan Schumaker, U.S. Environmental Nathan Schumaker, U.S. Environmental

Protection AgencyProtection Agency Dave LaPlante, Natural Resource GeospatialDave LaPlante, Natural Resource Geospatial National Council for Air and Stream National Council for Air and Stream

Improvement Improvement Fruit Growers Supply CompanyFruit Growers Supply Company Timber Products CompanyTimber Products Company Klamath National ForestKlamath National Forest

Questions?Questions?