PREDICTIVE DATA & AMBIENT INTELLIGENCE

U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A M B R I D G E P S Y C H O M E T R I C S C E N T R E

A N D E D E L M A N

J U N E 2 0 1 6

To establish the University of

Cambridge as an international centre

of excellence in computational

behavioural science

M I S S I O N

PREDICTING PSYCHOLOGY FROM DIGITAL FOOTPRINTS

FACEBOOK LIKEIDS

FACEBOOK STATUSES

TWEETS

BROWSING DATA

OPEN TEXT

AND MORE…

DEMOGRAPHICS

o Age

o Gender

o Relationship status

o Location

o Big 5 Personality

o Intelligence

o Life Satisfaction

o Political Views

o Religious Views

o Sexuality

o Profession

o Risk Propensity

The trait prediction engine is based on actual psychological data and the corresponding social media profiles of over 6 MILLION individuals.

INDIVIDUAL INSIGHTSDIGITAL FOOTPRINTS

APPLY MAGIC SAUCE

PSYCHOGRAPHICS

SOCIAL SCIENCET H E L A R G E S T A N D M O S T R I C H S O C I A L S C I E N C E D A T A B A S E I N

H I S T O R Y , C O N T A I N I N G R I C H P S Y C H O - D E M O G R A P H I C P R O F I L E S

O N T H E A U D I E N C E S O F O V E R 2 0 0 , 0 0 0 B R A N D S

Over 6 MILLION unique

participantsData shared with 150

academic collaborators

Responses to 25-30

validated psychological

assessments

40+ peer-reviewed

publications since 2011

Privacy-preserving

INDIVIDUAL INSIGHTS

Better-than-spouse

personality prediction

published in PNAS

”The most interesting thing for me is the predictive power of a few minuscule

“likes,” revealing a person’s feelings about a current event, a friend’s haircut

or a picture of a dancing cat. Remarkably, from these little pixels of

disconnected opinion, a pattern-seeking computer can create a detailed

pointillist picture of each of us in all our individuality.

”

PREDICTIVE DATA PROJECT

AN AUDIT OF PUBLIC OPINION ON BIG DATAH O S T E D O N A D A T A D R I V E N P L A T F O R M : P R E D I C T I V E D A T A P R O J E C T . C O M

P R E D I C T I V E B I G D A T A

R E S E A R C H A I M S

To scientifically examine and monitor public attitudes towards predictive technologies.

To explore the diverse opinions and psychological attributes of global consumers, and marketing and communications professionals.

INTRODUCTION TO THE RESEARCHT H I S I S T H E L A R G E S T A U D I T O F P U B L I C O P I N I O N O N B I G D A T A A N D P R E D I C T I V E

T E C H N O L O G I E S I N H I S T O R Y W I T H 34 ,267 PEOPLE ( A N D C O U N T I N G ) T H A T H A V E

E N G A G E D W I T H T H E P R E D I C T I V E D A T A P R O J E C T A S S E S S M E N T P L A T F O R M

13% (1,868) of the participants were

marketing or communications professionals

8, 877 people answered all questions,

including 20 personality items

A truly global sample; 43% Europe, 27% North

America, 15% South America. Top countries were

USA (23%), UK (8%) Brazil (7%) and France (5%)

Demographic data shows an average age of 30

(distribution 10-78); 54% male; 16% tech, 11%

education, 5% advertising, 4% financial services

CONSUMERS ARE CONCERNEDO N L Y 2 9 % T H O U G H T M O S T C O M P A N I E S W I T H A C C E S S T O T H E I R

P E R S O N A L D A T A U S E I T E T H I C A L L Y

AGE

BIG5 PERSONALITY GENDER

LOCATION

O U R D A T A S H O W S T H A T

C O N C E R N S A B O U T

P E R S O N A L P R E D I C T I O N S

A R E U N I V E R S A L

To scientifically examine and

monitor public attitudes towards

predictive technologies.

To explore the diverse opinions and

psychological attributes of global

consumers, and marketing and

communications professionals.

A clear, consistent message on

predictive data could therefore

resonate well with large segments

of the public without alienating

specific personality segments

BUT CONSUMERS ARE INDIVIDUALS

We found that people who are more accepting of predictive

technologies tended to also be more open-minded, cooperative

and extraverted than those who are more reserved on the topic.

This supports previous research:

People who trust the government also tend to be more emotionally stable, more cooperative

and more extraverted

Zhou & Lu (2011): high extraversion and low neuroticism related to greater degrees of trust in digital technologies

Korukonda (2007): high openness and agreeableness negatively related to computer anxiety, while neuroticism was positively correlated.

ALIGNING SERVICE WITH DEMAND

YES 38%

YES 84%

NO 62%

NO 16%

0 20 40 60 80 100

47% felt it should be used to determine the price of car insurance

71% of patients were happy to share social media information with their doctor (add reference here)

Should predictive technologies be used to

improve the quality of healthcare, for example

by helping doctors to recommend personalised

nutrition and exercise plans?

Should predictive technologies

be used assess your eligibility

for a mortgage?

CONTRASTING PUBLIC AND MARKETING

PROFESSIONAL OPINIONS

MARKETING PROFESSIONALS WANT MORE9 4 % S A I D I T W A S I M P O R T A N T F O R T H E M T O U N D E R S T A N D T H E P S Y C H O L O G I C A L A T T R I B U T E S O F T H E I R C U S T O M E R S

7 8 % S A I D T H E I R O R G A N I S A T I O N N E E D S T O I N V E S T I N P R E D I C T I V E T E C H N O L O G I E S

YES 53%

YES 78%

NO 47%

NO 22%

0 20 40 60 80 100

NON-CMOS

CMOS

There’s also a gap in desire for personalisation using predictive technologies,

with 78% of CMOs saying Yes compared to 53% of non-CMOs

RISKS OF OVERESTIMATING PUBLIC DEMAND 9 4 % S A I D I T W A S I M P O R T A N T F O R T H E M T O U N D E R S T A N D T H E P S Y C H O L O G I C A L A T T R I B U T E S O F T H E I R C U S T O M E R S

7 8 % S A I D T H E I R O R G A N I S A T I O N N E E D S T O I N V E S T I N P R E D I C T I V E T E C H N O L O G I E S

50% CMOs think future behaviour can be

predicted accurately from personal data compared

to 36% non-CMO

62% CMOs have heard of the right to be forgotten

compared to 47% non-CMOs

Across all domains, marketing and

communications professionals (CMOs) were

more accepting of uses of predictive technologies

and found their adoption generally more desirable

than people who do not work in marketing

AWARENESS

ACCEPTANCE

AND THERE IS INEQUALIT Y IN TRUSTT H E P U B L I C ’ S S U S P I C I O N O F T H E U S E O F P E R S O N A L D A T A I S C L E A R

This lack of trust, and unease amongst consumers, could become a real problem –

unless we tackle it now through the adoption of best practices and the right ethical approaches

53

58

56 56

60

44

4746 46

48

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

• Percent trust in the four institutions of

government, business, media and NGOs, 2012 to 2016Informed Public

MassPopulation

12pt

Gap

9pt

Gap

in trust inequality--which jumps to a 5-point increase among the GDP5

3-point increase

Trust-Building Behaviors:Concerns around Data, Quality and Security

for TechI m p o r t a n c e v s . p e r f o r m a n c e o f b e h a v i o r i n b u i l d i n g t r u s t i n a c o m p a n y

% Importance

% Performance Gap

PRIVACY, TRANSPARENCY AND RELEVANCE

PRIVACYP R I V A C Y I S T O P O F M I N D

58% (11,090) of people surveyed reported having not used a

popular digital service because of privacy concerns

27% would pay $3 a month to use Facebook without their

behaviour being recorded, given that the average revenue

per user is around $1.33/month

”The most interesting thing for me is the predictive power of a few

minuscule “likes,” revealing a person’s feelings about a current event, a

friend’s haircut or a picture of a dancing cat. Remarkably, from these little

pixels of disconnected opinion, a pattern-seeking computer can create a

detailed pointillist picture of each of us in all our individuality.

”

PERSONALISATION

of CMOs thought their customers’ experience

of their brand was highly personalised to

their individual attributes, whereas 55% of

non-CMOs thought this was the case

64%

66%

56%

of people would prefer to see

personalised advertising, assuming they

have to see some advertising

of people thought predictive technologies

should be used to personalise their online

and mobile experience

AMBIENT INTELLIGENCE

57% of people thought that smart

fridge data should be used to

recommend groceries to them when

they go shopping.

42% of people thought that the benefits

of smart appliances pre-ordering

groceries and adjusting room

temperature outweighed the privacy

risks related to the data generated on

patterns in their home life

THE BENEFIT OF TRUSTED DATAW H A T H A P P E N S W H E N Y O U G E T I T R I G H T

ETHICS

BETTER DATA

BETTER OFFERING

BETTER BUSINESS

TRUST

THANK YOUU N I V E R S I T Y O F C A M B R I D G E P S Y C H O M E T R I C S C E N T R E

A N D E D E L M A N

J U N E 2 0 1 6