Predicting Football Using R
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Transcript of Predicting Football Using R
£1Billion!bet on 2014 World Cup in UK
According to http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/jun/02/cashing-in-world-cup-profit-brazil
70%!of all sports betting world wide !is football
According to http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/24354124
The odds often reflect the!market rather than the true!probability
According to http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/24354124
Poisson model assumes scores are independent of each other!!
Doesn’t account for teams motivation - e.g. playing for a draw
Applying the Dixon & Coles Adjustment
x=y=0: 1-λμρ&x=0, y=1: 1+λρ&x=1, y=0: 1+μρ&x=1, y=1: 1-ρ&otherwise: 1
ConclusionsPoisson model with the Dixon & Coles adjustment is simple yet relatively accurate!!!
Other parameters, such as weather, injuries, can be added to improve accuracy!!!
Needs combining with an effective staking strategy though