Predicting drying efficiency during solar drying process of grape clu · 2017-10-11 · Australian...

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Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 5(6): 230-241, 2011 ISSN 1991-8178 Predicting Drying Efficiency during Solar Drying Process of Grapes Clusters in a Box Dryer using Artificial Neural Network 1 Abd El-Wahab S. Kassem, 2 Mohammed A. Al-Sulaiman, 3 Abd El-Wahed M. Aboukarima and 3 Samira S. Kassem 1 Agricultural Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Alexandria University, Egypt. 2 Community College, Huraimla, Shaqra University, P.O. Box 300, Huraimla 11962, Saudi Arabia. 3 Agricultural Engineering Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, Egypt. Abstract: The solar drying process is depended on different parameters, such as weather parameters like ambient air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation and wind speed, amount of initial material, initial moisture content, type of dryer, etc. Hence, the determination of the drying efficiency of such process is too complex. In this study, modeling of temperature inside the solar box dryer, wind speed, air relative humidity outside the solar box, temperature of grapes, air relative humidity inside the solar box and grapes moisture content with drying efficiency of grapes clusters dried in the solar box dryer have been investigated using multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis and artificial neural networks (ANN). The standard back-propagation learning algorithm has been used in the network. In addition, the statistical validity of the developed models has been determined by using the coefficient of determination (R 2 ), the root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE). R 2 , RMSE and MAE have been determined for drying efficiency as 0.7068, 2.9227%, 2.1748%, respectively when using ANN model in testing phase. In addition, predictive neural network model showed better predictions than regression model for drying efficiency. However, both methods can be used for the prediction of drying efficiency. It is expected that this study would be very beneficial to those dealing with the solar drying systems of the future. Key words: Grapes clusters, solar drying, box dryer, multiple linear regression, artificial neural networks. INTRODUCTION Drying of agricultural crops, as a method of preserving perishable products is an old and accepted technique, still widely used worldwide. Solar drying of agricultural products is the simple technique compared to other drying operations like spray drying, freeze drying, osmotic drying, etc. Solar dryers are available in a range of size and design and are used for drying various agricultural products. In addition, there are over 500 types of dryers for agricultural products had been reported in the literature, and that over 100 distinct types were commonly available (Mujumdar, 2000). However, solar dryers can be classified into two basic categories namely: passive dryers and active dryers. Sub classifications are offered by Leon et al. (2002) as illustrated in Figure 1. One of these sub classifications is solar box dryer. The solar box dryer is a device which absorbs the incoming solar radiation, converts it into heat and transferred this heat to air. A box-type solar dryer is used by Mwithiga and Kigo (2006) in drying process of coffee beans. Thermal performance of the solar air collectors depends on the material, shape, dimension and layout (Sencan and Ozdemir, 2007). So, performance of a solar box dryer could be also depended on shape, fabricated materials, dimensions, layout, and absorber material type and painted, etc. Moreover, the efficiency of a solar collector depends on its type and model as well as on the rate of heat loss during operation (Timoumi et al., 2004). On the other hand, testing a dryer is necessary to evaluate its absolute and comparative performance with other dryers and the test results provide relevant information for the designer as well as the user (Leon et al., 2002). One of the performance criteria in solar dryers' evaluation is drying efficiency which differs from thermal efficiency of the solar collector. El- Awady et al. (1993) used air solar dryer inclination with angle of 30° in Egypt to dry grapes and the maximum value of the drying efficiency of 19.40% was obtained. The drying Corresponding Author: Abd El-Wahab S. Kassem, Department of Agricultural Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Alexandria University, Aflatoon St., El-Chatby 21545, Alexandria, Egypt. E-mail: [email protected] 230

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Page 1: Predicting drying efficiency during solar drying process of grape clu · 2017-10-11 · Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 5(6): 230-241, 2011 ISSN 1991-8178 Predicting

Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 5(6): 230-241, 2011ISSN 1991-8178

Predicting Drying Efficiency during Solar Drying Process of Grapes Clusters in a BoxDryer using Artificial Neural Network

1Abd El-Wahab S. Kassem, 2Mohammed A. Al-Sulaiman, 3Abd El-Wahed M. Aboukarima and3Samira S. Kassem

1Agricultural Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Alexandria University, Egypt.2Community College, Huraimla, Shaqra University, P.O. Box 300, Huraimla 11962, Saudi Arabia.

3Agricultural Engineering Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, Egypt.

Abstract: The solar drying process is depended on different parameters, such as weather parameterslike ambient air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation and wind speed, amount of initialmaterial, initial moisture content, type of dryer, etc. Hence, the determination of the drying efficiencyof such process is too complex. In this study, modeling of temperature inside the solar box dryer,wind speed, air relative humidity outside the solar box, temperature of grapes, air relative humidity inside the solar box and grapes moisture content with drying efficiency of grapes clusters dried in the solar box dryer have been investigated using multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis andartificial neural networks (ANN). The standard back-propagation learning algorithm has been used inthe network. In addition, the statistical validity of the developed models has been determined by usingthe coefficient of determination (R2), the root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute error(MAE). R2, RMSE and MAE have been determined for drying efficiency as 0.7068, 2.9227%,2.1748%, respectively when using ANN model in testing phase. In addition, predictive neural networkmodel showed better predictions than regression model for drying efficiency. However, both methodscan be used for the prediction of drying efficiency. It is expected that this study would be verybeneficial to those dealing with the solar drying systems of the future.

Key words: Grapes clusters, solar drying, box dryer, multiple linear regression, artificial neuralnetworks.

INTRODUCTION

Drying of agricultural crops, as a method of preserving perishable products is an old and acceptedtechnique, still widely used worldwide. Solar drying of agricultural products is the simple technique comparedto other drying operations like spray drying, freeze drying, osmotic drying, etc. Solar dryers are available ina range of size and design and are used for drying various agricultural products. In addition, there are over500 types of dryers for agricultural products had been reported in the literature, and that over 100 distinct typeswere commonly available (Mujumdar, 2000). However, solar dryers can be classified into two basic categoriesnamely: passive dryers and active dryers. Sub classifications are offered by Leon et al. (2002) as illustratedin Figure 1. One of these sub classifications is solar box dryer. The solar box dryer is a device which absorbsthe incoming solar radiation, converts it into heat and transferred this heat to air. A box-type solar dryer isused by Mwithiga and Kigo (2006) in drying process of coffee beans.

Thermal performance of the solar air collectors depends on the material, shape, dimension and layout(Sencan and Ozdemir, 2007). So, performance of a solar box dryer could be also depended on shape, fabricatedmaterials, dimensions, layout, and absorber material type and painted, etc. Moreover, the efficiency of a solarcollector depends on its type and model as well as on the rate of heat loss during operation (Timoumi et al.,2004). On the other hand, testing a dryer is necessary to evaluate its absolute and comparative performancewith other dryers and the test results provide relevant information for the designer as well as the user (Leonet al., 2002).

One of the performance criteria in solar dryers' evaluation is drying efficiency which differs from thermalefficiency of the solar collector. El- Awady et al. (1993) used air solar dryer inclination with angle of 30° inEgypt to dry grapes and the maximum value of the drying efficiency of 19.40% was obtained. The drying

Corresponding Author: Abd El-Wahab S. Kassem, Department of Agricultural Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture,Alexandria University, Aflatoon St., El-Chatby 21545, Alexandria, Egypt.E-mail: [email protected]

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efficiency could be depended on type of solar dryer, water evaporated during drying period, mass of driedmaterial, temperature of air drying, ambient air temperature, latent heat of vaporization, solar energy on thesurface area of air heater, etc. Calculation of this efficiency needs a lot of processes and experimental studies.This is time consuming and generally is complex. On the other hand, artificial neural network (ANN) modelsrepresent a new method in prediction. However, ANN differ from traditional simulation approaches in that theyare trained to learn solutions rather than being programmed to model a specific problem in the normal way(Sencan and Ozdemir, 2007).

Fig. 1: Classification of solar dryers (Leon et al.,2002).

In recent years, studies on applications of ANN in drying systems were carried out by a number ofresearchers (Farkas et al., 2000; Islam et al., 2003; Bala et al., 2005; Satish and Setty, 2005; Khazae andDaneshmandi, 2007; Poonnoy et al., 2007; Menlik et al., 2009; Gorjian et al., 2010; Motevali et al., 2010;Khoshhal et al., 2010; Kassem et al., 2010; Çakmak and Yildiz, 2011). In these studies, researchers found ahigh effectiveness of ANN models in description drying process with great success. Moreover, studies onapplications of ANN in prediction of thermal performance of solar collectors were carried out by a numberof researchers.

Solomon et al. (2006) developed an ANN model for flat plate solar collection system. The data wereobtained from experimental and simulation approach. The model presented permits a better understanding ofthe heat flow process and its interaction with the fluid dynamics. This can be used as a way of monitoringperformance of the flat plate solar collection system. Results show that ANN modeled the dynamics of a solarplate collector well, compared to their conventional counterparts.

Sencan and Ozdemir (2007) developed an ANN model for thermal performance of solar air collectorsystem prediction. The inputs of the network are inlet and outlet air temperature to collector, solar radiationand air mass flow rate and the output was thermal efficiency of the solar collector which is formulated by:

(1)u

c

Q

A I

Where, Qu is the useful energy transferred to the fluid, Ac is collector area, η is thermal efficiency of the solarcollector and I is solar radiation.

Sözen et al. (2008) determined the efficiency of flat-plate solar collectors using ANN. Surface temperaturein collector, date, time, solar radiation, declination angle, azimuth angle and tilt angle are used in the inputlayer of the network. The efficiency of flat-plate solar collector is in the output layer. The advantages of ANNmodel compared to the conventional testing methods are speed, simplicity, and the capacity of the ANN tolearn from examples.

Tripathy and Kumar (2009) investigated an ANN model for prediction of temperature variation of foodproduct during solar drying. The important climatic variables namely, solar radiation intensity and ambient airtemperature are considered as the input parameters. Experimental data on potato cylinders and slices obtainedwith mixed mode solar dryer for 9 typical days of different months of the year were used for training andtesting the neural network. Based on error analysis results, the prediction capability of artificial neural networkmodel is found to be the best of all the prediction models investigated, irrespective of food sample geometry.

Caner et al. (2011) estimated thermal performances of solar air collectors using ANN. Two types of solarair collectors are constructed and examined experimentally. The types are called as zigzagged absorber surface

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type and flat absorber surface type. Experiments are carried out between 10.00 and 17.00 h in August andSeptember for 5 days. Calculated values of thermal performances are compared to predicted values. Comparingand statistical results demonstrate effectiveness of the proposed ANN model.

Literature has shown that the ANN technique has not been used in predicting the drying efficiency of solardryers. Therefore, the overall goal of this study was to investigate the performance of an ANN model inpredicting the drying efficiency during grapes drying in a solar box dryer. In addition, a multiple linearregression model was investigated using ANN training data.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

1. Experimental Study:Chemical and physical characteristics of the fresh pre-treated Thompson seedless grapes used in the drying

experiments are seen in Kassem (2007). The drying device is a solar box dryer (Kassem,2007) and it is shownin Figure (2). This box has a mirror. Its dimensions are 0.8 m × 0.51m. The solar box dryer is installed ona movable frame to manually orient with the sun. The box is insulated with glass wool with 10 mm thick fromall sides. The dimensions of the solar box dryer are 0.8 m × 0.5 m× 0.3 m. The box is above the ground of30 cm and has 4 holes (1 cm in diameter) on its sides to pass air. The holes are laid about 24 cm from theground.

Drying experiments are carried out between 9.00 and 17.00 of August under Alexandria, Egypt weatherconditions (latitude 31.13° N, longitude 29.58° E) and experiments were carried out for 4 days and repeatedin another 4 days. The details of drying experiments are shown in Kassem (2007). During the experiments,total solar intensity on horizontal surface, wind speed, ambient temperature, air temperature inside the solarbox dryer, grapes cluster temperature, air relative humidity inside and outside the solar box and grapes moisturecontent are measured. Air temperature inside the solar box dryer and grapes cluster temperatures are carriedout by using thermocouples type-K with the help of microprocessor thermometer Type K thermo-couplethermometer (model testo 925, made in Singapore). Total solar intensity on horizontal surface, wind speed,relative humidity, ambient temperature have been recorded by using weather station which located at the samesite of drying experiments. Air relative humidity inside the solar devices is carried out by using hand heldinstrument (Figure 3). An electric balance with 205 g ± 0.01 g (METTLER AE0200, made in Germany) isused for weighing the grapes every one hour to calculate its moisture content. All measurements are takenevery one hour.

Special drying trays are made using a wire mesh fixed on an aluminum frame. Each tray had insidedimensions of 19 cm width and 39 cm long with height of 3 cm to hold the grapes. Each tray is kept on awooden frame fixed to the inner of the box at distance of 15 cm above the bottom of the box. The solar boxdryer was oriented manually to follow the solar radiation to maximize heating air. The drying experiment iscontinued until the grapes achieve their final moisture around 0.16 kg water per kg dry matter (Yaldiz et al.,2001).

Fig. 2: The solar box dryer.

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Fig. 3: Hand held for measuring relative humidity inside the box.

2. Calculation of Drying Efficiency:Assuming that the loss of heat from the dryer to the ambient air is negligible and there is heat utilized

to increase the temperature of the product and there is heat utilized to evaporate moisture from the product.So, the drying efficiency at any time period was calculated using the following expression (Thanvi andPande,1987):

(2)( )w p p

tt h

W L m c T

A I t

Latent heat of vaporization is usually expressed as a function of temperature (Pelegrina et al.,1999). So,

the latent heat of vaporization (L, J/kg) in this study was calculated at the drying air temperature accordingto ASAE (1998) as follows:

273.16#Td# 338.72 (3)2,502,535.259 2,385.76424( 273.16)dL T

Where ηt is drying efficiency (%), th is desired time period (3600 sec), A is surface area of air heater (m2),Ww is water evaporated during a time period (kg), mp is mass of grapes samples at a time period (kg), cp isspecific heat of grapes, taken as 2.243 KJ/kg (El-Awady et al., 1993), ΔT is temperature difference between air temperature inside the solar box dryer and ambient air temperature (°C), It is total solar intensity onhorizontal surface (W/m2) and Td is air temperature inside the solar box dryer (drying air temperature, °K).

3. Artificial Neural Network:ANN consists of simple processing elements or ‘neurons’ linked with each other in a particular

configuration. The basic working mechanism of a neuron is shown in Figure (4), where the neuron receivesa series of inputs, each carrying a specific synaptic weight. The result is filtered by an activation function thatgenerates an output signal with certain intensity, which serves as the stimulus for the next neuron(Haykin,1999). Training of the network consists of the adjustment of the weight coefficients of input neuronsignals. There are many types of ANN structures and training algorithm. In many network types, a feedforward neural network with back propagation algorithm is used in drying agricultural products applicationssuch the study conducted by (Caner et al., 2011). The basis of feed forward neural network with backpropagation algorithm is that the signals coming from the previous layer are processed and then the output istransmitted to the next layer (Özbek and Fidan,2009).

4. Application of Multiple Linear Regression on the Experimental Data:Multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis was performed using the data analysis tool within Microsoft

Excel. Some of the raw data used in training the ANN and MLR models are presented in Table (1). The MLRanalyses was performed from experimental data used in training the ANN model to establish a mathematicalrelationship for predicting drying efficiency (dependent variable) as a function of the eight independent

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variables (temperature inside the solar box dryer, ambient temperature, total solar intensity on horizontalsurface, wind speed, air relative humidity outside the solar box, temperature of grapes, air relative humidityinside the solar box and grapes moisture content). The mathematical relationship has the following form:

(4)0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Y β X1 β X2 β X3 β X4 β X5 β X6 β X7 β X8

Where X1 is temperature inside the solar box dryer (°C), X2 is ambient temperature (°C), X3 is total solarintensity on horizontal surface (W/m2), X4 is wind speed (m/s),X5 is air relative humidity outside the solarbox (%),X6 is temperature of grapes (°C), X7 is air relative humidity inside the solar box (%), X8 is grapesmoisture content (%,wb), Y is the dependent variable [i. e. drying efficiency, %] and β0, β1, β2, β3, β4, β5, β6,β7 and β8 are regression coefficients. Table (2) shows correlation coefficients among studied parameters. Table(3) illustrates regression coefficients values. Meanwhile, regression statistics of equation 4 for predicting dryingefficiency using MLR model are presented in Table (4). In reviewing the p-value values from Table (3), it wasdetermined that there is a significant relationship at level of 5% between drying efficiency and temperatureinside the solar box dryer (X1), wind speed (X4), temperature of grapes (X6) and grapes moisture content(X8). It is shown from Table (3) that the temperature inside the solar box dryer (X1), ambient temperature(X2), total solar intensity on horizontal surface (X3), air relative humidity outside the solar box (X5) and airrelative humidity inside the solar box (X7) were inversely proportional to drying efficiency.

Fig. 4: A single neuron model (Haykin,1999).

Table 1: Some of the raw data used in training the ANN and MLR models.X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 Y°C °C W/m2 m/s % °C % %,wb %46.96 27.06 586.61 1.75 70.70 43.72 71.41 75.00 2.2160.52 27.40 689.97 1.63 71.90 58.17 73.34 74.96 3.6664.70 27.35 793.97 2.04 72.23 61.46 72.60 74.34 5.7367.83 27.55 816.27 2.49 70.80 61.36 77.88 73.58 5.8664.70 27.81 734.03 2.44 69.41 61.23 71.49 72.89 5.9562.61 27.92 634.45 2.21 69.54 59.37 72.32 71.99 7.3261.57 27.86 522.99 2.33 68.86 57.99 72.30 71.28 7.3645.21 27.75 344.32 2.05 69.11 45.07 76.02 68.99 18.6247.47 26.51 599.89 1.25 72.00 45.00 79.20 68.68 3.03

Table 2: Correlation coefficients among studied parameters.Parameters Parameters

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 Y

X1 1X2 0.14 1X3 0.64 -0.07 1X4 0.39 -0.21 -0.0029 1X5 0.05 -0.55 -0.02 0.48 1X6 0.99 0.16 0.59 0.41 0.04 1X7 -0.05 -0.47 -0.05 0.41 0.92 -0.06 1X8 0.23 -0.56 0.08 0.54 0.45 0.23 0.43 1Y -0.10 -0.16 -0.47 0.51 0.23 -0.03 0.20 0.40 1

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Table 3: Regression coefficients of equation 4 for predicting drying efficiency using MLR model.Independent variables Regression coefficients symbols Value Standard Error t Stat P-valueConstant β0 0.954 25.351 0.038 0.9702X1 β1 -1.582 0.493 -3.211 0.0030X2 β2 -0.040 0.806 -0.050 0.9604X3 β3 -0.009 0.005 -1.707 0.0974X4 β4 3.893 1.556 2.501 0.0177X5 β5 -0.032 0.209 -0.154 0.8783X6 β6 1.732 0.507 3.414 0.0018X7 β7 -0.001 0.251 -0.005 0.9962X8 β8 0.072 0.029 2.500 0.0177

Table 4: Regression statistics of equation 4 during development of MLR model for predicting drying efficiency.Multiple R 0.8166R Square 0.6668Adjusted R Square 0.5835Standard Error 2.6767Observations 41

5. Application of ANN on the Experimental Data:In order to design ANN model, commercial neural network software of QNET 2000 for WINDOWS

(Vesta Services,2000) was used. The ANN used in this study was a standard back-propagation neural networkwith four layers: an input layer, two hidden layers and an output layer. Input vectors and the correspondingtarget vectors are used to train a network until it can approximate a function which associates input vectorswith specific output vectors.

Before training, a certain preprocessing steps on the network inputs and targets to make more efficientneural network training was performed. The produced experimental data sets (a total of 55) were randomized,where 14 patterns were randomly selected by the software to be used for testing the ANN model. The Sigmoidtransfer function of neuron activation in the hidden layers was chosen (Vesta Services, 2000). Prior to theiruse in the model, the input and the output values were normalized between 0.15 and 0.85 according to thefollowing equation:

(5)min

max min

( )(0.85 0.15) 0.15

( )

V VT

V V

Where V is the original values of input and output parameters, T is the normalized value, Vmax and Vmin arethe maximum and minimum values of the input and the output parameters, respectively. The Vmin and Vmax

values for normalization are given in Table (5). The inputs to the ANN model in this study were temperatureinside the solar box dryer (°C), wind speed (m/s), air relative humidity outside the solar box (%), temperatureof grapes (°C), air relative humidity inside the solar box (%) and grapes moisture content (%,wb). The outputof the ANN model was drying efficiency of grapes clusters dried in the solar box dryer. The randomized datawere used in training and the software has ordered to select randomly the testing points. The test pointsprovide an independent measure of how well the network can be expected to perform on data not used to trainit.

Table 5: Values for normalization.Parameters Units Vmin Vmax

Temperature inside the solar box dryer °C 43.24 67.83Ambient temperature °C 26.51 30.70Total solar intensity on horizontal surface w/m2 311.47 836.11Wind speed m/s 0.59 2.49Air relative humidity outside the solar box % 49.08 78.72Temperature of grapes °C 41.56 61.95Air relative humidity inside the solar box % 55.95 79.96Grapes moisture content wb,% 15.08 75.00Drying efficiency % 0.40 18.62

Various three and four layers ANN structures were investigated, including different number of neuronsin the hidden layers, different values of the learning coefficient and the momentum, different transfer functions.The best ANN structure and optimum values of network parameters were obtained on the basis of lowest erroron training data, by trial and error.

Figure (5) illustrates the developed ANN model. Root mean square error (RMSE) during training andtesting phases are shown in Figure (6) and Figure (7), respectively. Howevere, Table (6) presents network

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statistics from Qnet software. The network definition and training control parameters are as follows:Number of Layers: 4Input Layer:Nodes: 8Transfer Function: LinearHidden Layer 1:Nodes: 6Transfer Function: SigmoidHidden Layer 2:Nodes: 4Transfer Function: SigmoidOutput Layer:Nodes: 1Transfer Function: SigmoidConnections: FULLTraining Information:Iterations: 20000Training Error: 0.023089Test Set Error: 0.100963Learn Rate: 0.059493Momentum Factor: 0.800000

Table 6: Network statistics from Qnet software.Training data

Node Standard deviation (%) Bias (%) Maximum error (%) CorrelationDrying efficiency 1.543 -0.00097 0.999 0.987

Testing dataDrying efficiency 6.895 -0.2001 2.924 0.841

Fig. 5: The developed ANN model for prediction of drying efficiency of grapes clusters dried in the solarbox dryer.

6. Determination of Errors in Drying Efficiency Predictions:The accuracy of ANN and MLR predictions was evaluated using different error statistics as follows:

(6)1

i N

iobs iprei

1MAE E - E

N

(McMinn,2006) (7)

2

1

i N

iobs i prei

E ERMSE

N

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Where Eiobs and Eipre are calculated and predicted drying efficiency by different models, N is number of datapoints, MAE is mean absolute error and RMSE root mean square error. In addition, the coefficient ofdetermination (R2) was selected to measure the linear correlation between the calculated and the predictedvalues. The optimal correlation coefficient value is unity.

Fig. 6: Root mean square error during training phase.

Fig. 7: Root mean square error during testing phase.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

In this paper, two models have been developed by using ANN with 6 neurons in the first hidden layerand 4 neurons in the second hidden layer and by using MLR model for the prediction of drying efficiency ofgrapes clusters dried in the solar box dryer. The statistical values, such as R2, RMSE and MAE, of trainingand testing phases, are given in Table (7). For ANN and MLR models, the coefficient of determination (R2),the root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) are 0.7068, 2.9227%, 2.1748% and0.5126, 3.6493%, 3.2006%, respectively during testing phase. Figure (8) illustrates the relationship betweennormalized training and test patterns of network output with training targets. It is clear that training patterns

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have low scattering around optimal agreement line. In addition, test pattern shows some scattering around it.Figure (9) shows training outputs, test outputs and training set targets of drying efficiency obtained fromdeveloped ANN model with pattern sequence. It is clear from Figure (9) that the training set targets followsthe behavior of training outputs of drying efficiency obtained from developed ANN model with small deviation.

Figure (10) and Figure (11) show the relationships and coefficients of determination between the calculated and the predicted values of drying efficiency using ANN and MLR models during testing and training phases,respectively. Meanwhile, from Figure (10) it is clear that the points, during the testing process, are notuniformly scattered around the regression lines using MLR model in prediction drying efficiency. When usingANN model in prediction drying efficiency, coefficient of determination (R2) is relatively high compared toMLR model.

Fig. 8: Relationship between normalized training and test patterns of network output with training targets.

Fig. 9: Relationship between training outputs, test outputs and training set targets of drying efficiencyobtained from developed ANN model and pattern sequence.

In Table (7), it can be seen that the ANN model was more accurate in predicting the drying efficiencycompared to MLR model as suggested by the statistical measures. In general, however, the RMSE and MAEmeasures showed a small error between the calculated and the predicted values for the drying efficiency (Table7), suggesting that the employed ANN model was very accurate in predicting the values of the drying

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efficiency of grapes clusters dried in the solar box dryer. These results suggest that the model can be usedas a reliable tool that can be employed for expected drying efficiency of grapes clusters dried in the solar boxdryer at any values, falling within the range of values in this study, of temperature inside the solar box dryer, wind speed, air relative humidity outside the solar box, temperature of grapes, air relative humidity inside thesolar box and grapes moisture content.

Fig. 10: Comparison of the calculated drying efficiency data and the results obtained from developed ANNand MLR models during testing phase.

Fig. 11: Comparison of the calculated drying efficiency data and the results obtained from developed ANNand MLR models during training phase.

The contribution of each of the input parameters is shown in Table (8). This factor gives the relativeimportance of each input parameter to the training of the network and is usually used to choose the inputparameters in problems with many inputs. As can be seen the parameter with the smallest contribution isgrapes moisture content. Also, the parameter with the highest contribution is temperature of grapes.

Table 7: Error criteria during training and testing phases of ANN model and building MLR model when predicting drying efficiencyof grapes clusters dried in the solar box dryer.

Phase RMSE (%) MAE (%) R2

--------------------------------------- ------------------------------------ -------------------------------------MLR ANN MLR ANN MLR ANN

Training 2.2876 0.6674 1.8518 0.4908 0.6971 0.9735Testing 3.6493 2.9227 3.2006 2.1748 0.5126 0.7068

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Table 8: Contribution percentage of eight independent variables used in the 8-6-4-1 ANN model for prediction of drying efficiency ofgrapes clusters dried in the solar box dryer.

Input parameters Contribution (%)Temperature inside the solar box dryer 23.37Ambient temperature 10.41Total solar intensity on horizontal surface 10.19Wind speed 13.24Air relative humidity outside the solar box 5.90Temperature of grapes 18.68Air relative humidity inside the solar box 13.33Grapes moisture content 4.88Total 100

Conclusion:In this study, the application of regression analysis and neural network analysis on the experimental drying

efficiency of grapes clusters dried in the solar box dryer values are compared and discussed. The developedmodels which are limited with their boundary conditions are compared using the coefficient of determination(R2), the root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE). R2, RMSE and MAE have beendetermined for drying efficiency as 0.7068, 2.9227%, 2.1748%, respectively when using ANN model in testingphase. The advantages of the ANN method are the faster, simpler solutions and the avoidance of the need toperform long series of dryer performance experiments. Accuracy and usefulness of ANN method can beincreased with more data as reported by Sencan and Ozdemir (2007). Predictive neural network model showedbetter predictions than regression model for drying efficiency. However, both methods can be used for theprediction of drying efficiency. It is expected that this study would be very beneficial to those dealing withthe solar dryer systems of the future.

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