PFRP

black-footed albatross

modelling workshop

http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/PFRP/wiki/tiki-index.php?page=

Albatross+Modeling+Workshop

Background

•Black-footed albatross Phoebastrianigripes

•Breed on north-western Hawaiian islands

–Genetically distinct population on Torishima island

•About 60000 breeding pairs in Hawaiian

population

•Conservation status

–Endangered (IUCN)

–Status review (US ESA)

2001 PFRP Protected Species

Modeling Workshop

•“Development of integrated statistical

models for Hawaiian albatross populations

is feasible and could be started at any time”

•Priority research area for 2002 RFP

•Two projects funded

Purpose of modelling workshop

•Review results of the PFRP-funded

projects,

•Compare these results to other population

assessments,

•Identify problems in model development

and application, and

•Suggest future directions for model

development.

.

Black-footed Albatross

Satellite tracking data –limited # birds and time period

Fledgling albatrosses (red dots) tracked from Midway Atoll

Trajectories vary among islands

Kure

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

FFS

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Midway

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Laysan

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Lisianski

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Pearl and Hermes Reef

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Current threats

•At sea effects

–Longline fishing

–Pollutants

•Plastic ingestion

•Lost and discarded fishing gear

•Breeding colony effects

–Invasive species

•predators, plants, invertebrates, diseases

–Pollutants

–Climate change

Modelling

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,91

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Adult Survival

Adult Survival

Probability

Probability

Year

Year

Survival analysis

Survival analysis

Veran et al. 2007

Veran et al. 2007

Significantly correlated with fishing effort variable

Significantly correlated with fishing effort variable

--22ndndPC of PCA (mostly north Pacific swordfish catch)

PC of PCA (mostly north Pacific swordfish catch)

--effectively only 5

effectively only 5-- 6 data points through 2002

6 data points through 2002

Compare survival rate with other species

Compare survival rate with other species

•• Veran

Veran&

& Lebreton

Lebretonin prep

in prep

••Low estimate compared with other Albatross species

Low estimate compared with other Albatross species

(estimates possibly affected by heterogeneity

(estimates possibly affected by heterogeneity……

and

andbyby-- catch)

catch)

••Wide confidence interval (price to pay for heterogeneity)

Wide confidence interval (price to pay for heterogeneity)

Integrated analysis (Veran)

Integrated analysis 2

•Maunder, Hoyle, Alvarez-Flores

–2 separate models

•Fitting to all available data

–Counts of adults and fledglings

–Survival rate estimates

–Breeding success estimates

–Bycatch estimates

•Preliminary results so far

Only preliminary results so far

•Fit only to drift gillnet and Hawaiian longline data

(other longline data not yet included)

•Bird count, albatross distribution estimates,

model structure and parameter values being

revised

•No estimates of uncertainty

•Final results likely to be very different

Integrated analysis

preliminary results –not realistic

Total bycatch (longline + driftnet)

preliminary results –not realistic

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000 1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Year

Bycatch

1(GOA)

2(BSAI)

3(Cal)

4(HWD)

5(HWS)

6(FLLS)

7(FLLD)

8(LDJ)

9(SDJ)

10(SDT)

11(SDK)

Total

Data availability

•Finding: Data availability and legal

constraints impede research and model

development.

•Recommendation: Legal constraints need

to be resolved within agencies and

between governments. Metadata inventory

could be hosted on the NPAWG website

Data interpretation and analysis

•Finding: Spatial and temporal overlap

between fishing effort and bird distribution

is critical to estimate bycatch and

understand fishery impacts.

•Recommendation: Develop uniform means

to characterize longline fishing depth by

identifying usable proxies. Attempt to

access bird tracking results from TOPP

and other sources.

Data storage and dissemination

•Finding: The existing institutions do not

provide a stable means to store and

update albatross band resighting data.

•Recommendation: Continue to develop the

USGS/BBL database. Consolidate existing

ad hoc research data collections.

Information needs for FWS

Listing

•Finding: Change in population size is

a critical piece of information on

which the decision to list may rest.

•Recommendation: More information

on “walkers”, changes in age of first

reproduction, changes in survival by

age, will improve estimates of

population size.

Data collection on-colony

•Finding: It may be possible to collect additional data

without compromising current protocols.

•Recommendations:

–Clarifying which parameter(s) of interest are needed

to monitor population change would facilitate the

design of data collection protocols. Additional

statistical consultation may help to optimize banding

efforts among islands and age classes.

–PIT tag pilot study, collect and archive feathers/egg

shells, collect and analyzemating pair data on

known-age plots.