PowerPoint Presentation Template4ccc6686-5222... · H1 2017 Highlights Strong financial performance...

25
2017 Half-Year Results 10 August 2017

Transcript of PowerPoint Presentation Template4ccc6686-5222... · H1 2017 Highlights Strong financial performance...

Page 1: PowerPoint Presentation Template4ccc6686-5222... · H1 2017 Highlights Strong financial performance • Adjusted EBITDA(1,2) of $6.7bn, up 68%; Adjusted EBIT(1,2) of $3.8bn, up 334%

2017 Half-Year Results

10 August 2017

Page 2: PowerPoint Presentation Template4ccc6686-5222... · H1 2017 Highlights Strong financial performance • Adjusted EBITDA(1,2) of $6.7bn, up 68%; Adjusted EBIT(1,2) of $3.8bn, up 334%

Important notice concerning this document including forward looking statements

This document contains statements that are, or may be deemed to be, “forward looking statements” which are prospective in nature. These forward looking statements may be identified by the use of forward looking terminology, or the negative thereof such as “outlook”, "plans", "expects" or "does not expect", "is expected", "continues", "assumes", "is subject to", "budget", "scheduled", "estimates", "aims", "forecasts", "risks", "intends", "positioned", "predicts", "anticipates" or "does not anticipate", or "believes", or variations of such words or comparable terminology and phrases or statements that certain actions, events or results "may", "could", "should", “shall”, "would", "might" or "will" be taken, occur or be achieved. Such statements are qualified in their entirety by the inherent risks and uncertainties surrounding future expectations. Forward-looking statements are not based on historical facts, but rather on current predictions, expectations, beliefs, opinions, plans, objectives, goals, intentions and projections about future events, results of operations, prospects, financial condition and discussions of strategy.

By their nature, forward looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Glencore’s control. Forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and may and often do differ materially from actual results. Important factors that could cause these uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those discussed in Glencore’s 2016 Annual Report.

Neither Glencore nor any of its associates or directors, officers or advisers, provides any representation, assurance or guarantee that the occurrence of the events expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements in this document will actually occur. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements which only speak as of the date of this document. Other than in accordance with its legal or regulatory obligations (including under the UK Listing Rules and the Disclosure and Transparency Rules of the UK Financial Conduct Authority and the Rules Governing the Listing of Securities on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited and the Listing Requirements of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange Limited), Glencore is not under any obligation and Glencore and its affiliates expressly disclaim any intention, obligation or undertaking to update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. This document shall not, under any circumstances, create any implication that there has been no change in the business or affairs of Glencore since the date of this document or that the information contained herein is correct as at any time subsequent to its date.

No statement in this document is intended as a profit forecast or a profit estimate and no statement in this document should be interpreted to mean that earnings per Glencore share for the current or future financial years would necessarily match or exceed the historical published earnings per Glencore share.

This document does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for any securities. The making of this document does not constitute a recommendation regarding any securities.

The companies in which Glencore plc directly and indirectly has an interest are separate and distinct legal entities. In this document, “Glencore”, “Glencore group” and “Group” are used for convenience only where references are made to Glencore plc and its subsidiaries in general. These collective expressions are used for ease of reference only and do not imply any other relationship between the companies. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer collectively to members of the Group or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies.

2

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Ivan Glasenberg

Chief Executive Officer

Wonderfontein coal, South Africa

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H1 2017 Highlights

Strong financial performance

• Adjusted EBITDA(1,2) of $6.7bn, up 68%; Adjusted EBIT(1,2) of $3.8bn, up 334%

• Net income attributable to equity holders of $2.5bn, -$369M in H1 2016

• Funds from operations of $5.2bn, up 88%

Underpinned by a diversified portfolio of Tier 1 assets and Tier 1 commodities …

• Favourable fundamentals and rising prices for key commodities amid robust growth momentum in the global economy: copper +22%, cobalt +109%, zinc +49% and thermal coal realisations +50% to 70% period-on-period

• Low-cost structures/high margins embedded within our key commodity industrial divisions: copper 88c/lb, zinc –9c/lb (16c/lb ex gold), nickel 240c/lb, and thermal coal $45/t at a $32/t margin

… and the resilience of Marketing

• Marketing Adjusted EBIT of $1.4bn, up 13% (+22% with Agriculture on a like-for-like basis)

• Reflecting solid YTD performance, increased full year 2017 guidance range by $100M to $2.4 - $2.7bn

Balance Sheet further strengthened

• Net funding and Net debt reduced by $2.4bn & $1.6bn respectively over the first-half to $30.2bn and $13.9bn

• Robust cash flow coverage ratios at 30 June:

– FFO to Net debt: 74%

– Net debt to Adjusted EBITDA: 1.07x

4Notes: (1) Refer to basis of preparation on page 5 of the 2017 Half-Year Report. (2) Refer to note 3 page 42 of the 2017 Half-Year Report for definition and reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA/EBIT.

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Sustainability and governance

Safety

• 4 fatalities from 4 incidents YTD, 3 at focus assets (Kazakhstan/Bolivia)

• 155,000 employees and contractors at the end of 2016

• LTIFR 1.00, down 29% compared to 2016(2)

• TRIFR 3.21, down 21% compared to 2016(2)

• HSEC summit with senior leadership continued the focus on eliminating fatalities and implementation of critical controls for catastrophic hazards

Environment

• Set group wide emission intensity reduction target of at least 5% on 2016 levels by 2020

• Publication of our second climate change considerations report

• Achieved Level 4 ranking in investor-led Transition Pathway Initiative

• Improvement in sector performance analysis recognisedby CDP

Governance

• Publication of our second payments to governments report

5

2.79

2.54

2.07

1.89

1.60

1.341.40

1.00

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1

LTIFR(1,2) 2010 to June 2017

64% reduction

Notes: (1) Lost time incidents (LTIs) are recorded when an employee or contractor is unable to work following an incident. LTIFR is the total number of LTIs recorded per million working hours. LTIs do not include

Restricted Work Injuries (RWI) and fatalities (fatalities were included up to 2013). Historic data has been restated to exclude fatalities and to reflect data collection improvements. (2) From Jan 2017 the LTIs from

Agriculture are not included due to the deconsolidation of this part of the business

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Steven Kalmin

Chief Financial Officer

Koniambo Nickel, New Caledonia

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H1 2017 Financial highlights

7

Capital allocation

policy to maximise

value creation

Framework(2) balances optimal

capital structure with

reinvestment / growth and

shareholder returns. In H1,

$0.5bn distribution, $0.6bn

M&A, $1.6bn Net debt

reduction

… underpinned by

our low-cost, high-

margin industrial

asset portfolio(1)

2016 extensive cost

efficiencies / savings,

sustained into H1 2017. Some

volume and FX variances

offset by higher by-product

credits

Strong H1 2017

financial

performance …

Capital structure

further strengthened

Net debt down 11%

to $13.9bn

Targeting strong BBB/Baa;

underpinned by maximum

through the cycle leverage of

2x, augmented by a Net debt

cap of c.$16bn

Strongly cash

generative at spot

prices(3)

Underpinned by robust

margins in key asset segments

combined with resilient

marketing earnings

74%ND/Adj.EBITDA (x)

FFO/ND (%)

1.07x

2013 2014 2015 2016

Maintain strong

BBB/Baa

Equity cash flows

$1bn fixed distribution

in 2017

M&A + Other

Cu Zn

Ni Thermal

Coal

88c/lb

240c/lb$32/tmargin

Adjusted

EBITDA

+68%

$6.7bn

Adjusted

EBIT

+334%

$3.8bn

Marketing Adj.

EBIT

+13%

$1.4bn

Net

Income

(-$369M H116)

$2.5bn

Funds from

operations

+88%

$5.2bn

Net

funding

-7%

$30.2bn

Net

debt

-11%

$13.9bn

Committed

Avail. Liquidity $14.5bn

Cu,Ni,Zn,Coal EBITDA $12.0b

+ Other Ind EBITDA $0.3bn

+ Mktg EBITDA $2.7bn

= Group EBITDA $15.0bn

- Cash taxes + interest $3.8bn

- Capex $4.1bn

= illustrative

annualised spot FCF$7.1bn

Notes: (1) See slide 21 for calculation and reconciliation to reported Adjusted EBITDA. Zinc costs include 25 c/lb gold credit. (2) See notes on slide 14 for framework definitions. (3) See slide 22 for underlying calculations

-9c/lb16c/lb pre Au

H1

2017

Fixed and variable

payout basis

commences from

2018

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H1 2017 Marketing Adjusted EBIT up 13% to $1.4bn

Strong performance, up 13% (+22% with Agriculture on a like-for-like basis), reflecting a more supportive marketing environment, in line with improving fundamentals for key commodities

• Metals and minerals

• Healthy demand and tightening market conditions across key commodities drove the 23% increase, with strong contributions from most commodities

• Energy Products

• Up 15%, reflecting improved coal marketing conditions. Weather disruptions and China’s policy developments to curb Chinese domestic coal production/overcapacity, were positive period-on-period factors. The oil trading environment was more subdued, relative to prior periods.

• Agricultural Products(1)

• EBIT up 86% on a 100% like-for-like basis to $214M, reflecting the impact of a record Australian crop on local origination and Viterra handling operations. Grain, oilseeds, cotton and freight marketing all performed well in a generally challenging pricing environment.

8

852

1,048

252

291115(2)

107(3)

H1 2016 H1 2017

Metals and Minerals Energy ProductsGlencore Agriculture Corp and Other

(1)

Marketing Adjusted EBIT ($M)

1,368+13%

1,210

Notes: (1) Following the sale and deconsolidation of Agricultural Products, Glencore’s 49.9% proportional share of Glencore Agriculture industrial earnings is now aggregated into overall Marketing. (2) H1 2016

Glencore Agriculture Marketing EBIT reflects 100% ownership, restated to include -$7M of Agricultural Industrial EBIT in H1 2016. (3) Comprises 49.9% of Glencore Agriculture.

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2017 Marketing guidance of $2.4-$2.7bn Adjusted EBIT(1)

• 2017 marketing guidance increased a further $100M to $2.4-$2.7bn

• reflects supportive market conditions, resulting in YTD performance tracking above initial guidance

• Moving to the upper part of the long-term guidance range of $2.2-$3.2bn would require:

• a combination of production/volume growth, uptick in additional working capital, higher interest rates and tighter physical market conditions

• A low cost of capital, stable cost base and low capex requirements underpin resilient and high returns on equity

• Marketing earnings are generated from the handling, blending, distribution and optimisation, in substantial scale, of physical commodities, augmented by arbitrage opportunities

9

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

350020

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17F

Long-term guidance range:

+2017: $2.2-$3.2bn

Marketing Adjusted EBIT ($M)

H1 $

1.4

bn

Notes: (1) Increased from $2.3bn-$2.6bn guidance range provided in May 2017. (2) 2017 marketing adjusted EBIT based on annualised H1 Marketing of $1.368bn. Dotted line reflects 100% of Agriculture EBIT.

(3) 2017 Industrial adjusted EBITDA based on VUMA published 2017 consensus Industrial Adjusted EBITDA of $10.8bn as at 7 August 2017.

FY

:$2.4

-$2.7

bn

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Marketing

Adjusted EBIT

Indexed(2)

Marketing earnings resilience (Indexed 2012=100)

Industrial

Adjusted EBITDA

Indexed(3)

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H1 2017 Industrial Adjusted EBITDA up 95% to $5.3bn

Industrial Adjusted EBITDA up 95%, reflecting the significant margin expansion due to higher commodity prices and our attractive low-cost structures. Relatively minor offsets from FX and other cost categories

• Metals and minerals

• EBITDA mining margin of 38% vs 28% in H1 2016

• Up 54%, in line with significantly higher prices over the period (cobalt +109%, zinc +49% and copper +22%). Modest offset from lower production and the associated impact on costs, and the weaker US dollar against various producer currencies

• Energy Products

• EBITDA coal mining margin of 41% vs 17% in H1 2016

• Up 227%, on the back of higher coal prices, margins and production. Realised H1 2017 thermal coal prices were up 50% to 70% period-on-period. Offsetting impact from fuel related inflation, higher royalties and adverse FX movements

10

2,365

3,639

571

1,869

H1 2016 H1 2017

Metals and Minerals Energy Products

Corp and Other

Industrial Adjusted EBITDA

by segment ($M)(1)

5,282

+95%

2,706

Note: (1) Following the sale and deconsolidation of Agricultural Products, Glencore’s proportional share of Glencore Agriculture is now reported through Marketing (-$7M in H1 2016)

2,706

3,527

157

330169 171

158

34 5,282

H1

201

6E

BIT

DA

Price

Volu

me

Co

st

Infla

tio

n

FX

Co

al H

edg

ing

Oth

er

H1

201

7E

BIT

DA

Industrial Adjusted EBITDA

Bridge ($M)Volume: Mutanda weather,

Alumbrera end of mine variability

and oil field depletion

Cost: including lower

grades at Antapaccay

and coal portfolio mix,

in addition to higher

fuel and other energy

costs

FX:

ZAR: -14%

KZT: -8%

AUD: -3%

COP: -6%

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Development of industrial mining unit cash costs/margins

11

CuCosts (c/lb)(1)

ZnCosts (c/lb)(1)

CoalThermal

derived

Costs ($/t)(1)

NiCosts ($/lb)(1)

136 87 89 88 86

250

221

261

290

2015A 2016A 2017Guidance

H1 2017A 2017Updated

Note: (1) Disclosed cost is full cost including all cash costs to allow reconciliation and generation of EBITDA. Spot LME as at 7 August 2017. See slide 21 for reconciliation of H1 2017 actual costs to Adjusted EBITDA.

See slides 22/23 for production volumes underlying 2017 full year cost guidance.

269 265 248 240 213

516

436 442470

2015A 2016A 2017Guidance

H1 2017A 2017Updated

41

-5 -10 -9 -9

16 10 16 16

8795

122 129

2015A 2016A 2017Guidance

H1 2017A 2017Updated

40 39 44 45 46

1618

28

32 31.0

2015A 2016A 2017Guidance

H1 2017A 2017Updated

$/t Margin

Spot LME c/lb

• Extensive cost efficiencies/ savings achieved in 2016 sustained into H1 2017

• Some negative volume variances offset by higher by-product revenues

• Coal: Higher H1 costs reflect revenue linked royalties, more than compensated within the higher coal margins ($32/t), in line with higher coking and semi-soft prices

• 2017 Updated

• Tight cost control maintained throughout the Group with numerous productivity initiatives underway

• Slight increase in coal unit costs (+$1/t), largely driven by revenue linked royalties, associated with higher prices, and FX movements

Spot LME c/lb

Spot LME c/lb

Ex AuEx AuEx Au

Ex Au

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0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

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06

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07

20

08

20

09p

f

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10p

f

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11p

f

20

12p

f

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13p

f

20

14

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15

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16

20

17

H1 2017 Industrial capex of $1.6bn; FY 2017 guidance of $4bn maintained

• H1 2017 Industrial capex(1) of $1.6bn

• $1.2bn sustaining capex; $0.4bn expansionary capex

• Expansionary capex focused on Katanga, Mopani and Koniambo

• FY 2017 Industrial capex(1) guidance of c.$4bn

• c.$1bn of expansionary capex primarily progressing Katanga Whole Ore Leach commissioning by end 2017, Mopani’s concentrator/multiple shaft sinking projects and Koniambo rebuild

• Total Industrial capex guidance at c.$4bn per annum over the next three to five years • Including c.$3bn of sustaining capex

• No large greenfield expansion projects

• Well capitalised assets requiring modest capex going forward

• More than $38bn of expansionary capital (c.$66bn total capital) invested in the combined Glencore/Xstrata asset base since 2009

• Heavy capex program now essentially complete

• Technology/infrastructure upgrades at Katanga and Mopani provide permanent capex (and opex) reductions

12

Total Industrial capex ($bn)(2)

Notes: (1) H1 2017 total Industrial capex including JV capex. Marketing capex was $87M, including 50% of Glencore Agriculture (2) Glencore total Industrial capex 2006 to 2008 and combined Glencore and Xstrata

total Industrial capex from 2009. Excludes Las Bambas capex from 2010 to 2014. (3) includes $9M of Corporate and other capital expenditure

377

36

923

247

Metals &

Minerals

expansionary

Energy

expansionary

Metals &

Minerals

sustaining

Energy

sustaining ($M)

H1 2017

$1.6bn(3)

FY

c.$4bn

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Balance sheet further strengthened

• Repositioned capital structure solidifies balance sheet strength and flexibility

• Net funding and Net debt reduced further by $2.4bn and $1.6bn respectively to $30.2bn and $13.9bn over H1 2017

• Committed available liquidity of $14.5bn at 30 June

• RCF refinanced and resized in line with lower funding needs

– 1yr RCF $7.335bn (was $7.7bn) with a borrower’s term-out option (to May 2019)

– 5yr RCF $5.425bn (was $6.8bn) extended by 24 months to May 2022

• Issued a 10yr $1bn 4% coupon bond in March 2017

• Commitment to strong BBB/Baa ratings target

• Targeting a maximum 2x Net debt/Adjusted EBITDA through the cycle, augmented by a upper Net debt cap of c.$16bn, being 2017’s opening Net debt position

• Robust cash flow coverage ratios at 30 June(1):

– FFO to Net Debt of 74%

– Net debt to Adjusted EBITDA of 1.07x

• Optimised capital structure provides less risk, more flexibility and stability of distributions

13

Net debt ($bn)

FFO to Net debt

28%

29% 29%

33%30%

26%25%

50%

74%

H12013

FY2013

H12014

FY2014

H12015

FY2015

H12016

FY2016

H12017

34.8

35.8 37.6

30.5

29.6

25.923.6

15.513.9

10

15

20

25

30

35

H12013

FY2013

H12014

FY2014

H12015

FY2015

H12016

FY2016

H12017

49.2

52.2 54.4

49.847.3

41.239.0

32.6 30.2

H12013

FY2013

H12014

FY2014

H12015

FY2015

H12016

FY2016

H12017

Net debt to Adjusted EBITDA

Net funding ($bn)

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.4

2.7

3.02.9

H12013

FY2013

H12014

FY2014

H12015

FY2015

H12016

FY2016

H12017

1.07x

Targeting maximum

2x augmented by

Net debt cap of

c.$16bn

Manage around

Net debt cap of

c.$16bn

Notes: (1) H1 2017 FFO/ND and ND/Adj.EBITDA based on trailing 12 months for FFO and Adjusted EBITDA, see page 74 of the Half-Year Report 2017 for calculations

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H1 2017 Capital allocation

Maintain strong

BBB/Baa

Equity cash flows

$1bn fixed distribution

in 2017

M&A + Other

• Our capital allocation framework balances the preservation of our optimal capital structure, with attractive business reinvestment/growth opportunities and shareholder distributions

• H1 2017 capital allocation:

• From $3.2bn Equity cash flow generation(1)

– $0.5bn cash distribution (+$0.5bn in September), $0.6bn buyout of African Copper minorities, $0.5bn FX impact, $1.6bn reduction in Net debt

• Distributions from 2018 (basis 2017 equity cash flows)

• Fixed $1bn base distribution, reflecting the resilience, predictability and stability of Marketing cash flows plus

• Variable distribution representing a minimum payout of 25% of Industrial free cash flows

• Fixed and variable distribution components to be confirmed annually at full-year reporting; based on prevailing conditions and outlook, to be paid 50/50 in each half

• Variable distribution percentage flexed upwards, as appropriate:

– In context of overall balance sheet requirements, surplus capital position and subject to prevailing conditions & outlook

– Cash distribution generally favoured versus buyback given inherent volatility in prices

– At interim reporting, will also have the opportunity to top up distributions, as appropriate

14Notes: (1) Equity cash flows defined as Adjusted EBITDA less tax, interest and other, sustaining and expansionary capex and dividends paid to minorities. (2) $1bn fixed distribution in 2017 payable in two equal

tranches. (3) M&A + Other includes consideration around portfolio optimisation, asset monetisation, recycling and debt reduction. Reinvestment screened against rigorous criteria.

(2)

(3)

End ND: $13.9bn (down $1.6bn)

• 1.07x ND/Adj.EBITDA

• 74% FFO/ND

• Baa2/BBB

Start ND:

$15.5bn

• 1.51x

ND/Adj.EBITDA

• 50% FFO/ND

• Baa3/BBB-

Distribution: -$0.5bn

• $0.5bn second

tranche to be paid in

September

(1)

Equity Cash Flow: $3.2bn

$6.7bn adj. EBITDA less $0.6bn

tax, $0.8bn net interest, $1.6bn

net capex, and WC (non RMI)

changes of $0.5bn

M&A + Other: -$1.1bn

• -$0.6bn buyout of African

copper minorities

• -$0.5bn FX revaluation

movements (non USD

debt), net of margin

receipts on hedging

instruments

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Ivan Glasenberg

Chief Executive Officer

Raglan Nickel, Canada

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• Not all commodities are equal; differentiation is increasingly important

• Key emerging markets are maturing

• The early cycle commodities that underpinned the supercycle boom in fixed asset investment are likely to be displaced as demand patterns shift in favour of mid and late cycle commodities, in line with rising levels of income per capita

• Our “Tier 1” commodity portfolio of metals, thermal coal and agricultural products is well placed to benefit from this transition

16

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

$US GDP per capita (real 2010)

Mid cycle

Late cycle

GLEN Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4

Early Cycle Mid Cycle Late Cycle

Iron O

re, C

okin

g c

oal,

Manganese

Cobalt,

Oil/

Gas, P

GM

s

Dia

monds, T

herm

al C

oal,

Agricultura

l pro

ducts

Copper,

Zin

c, N

ickel,

Alu

min

ium

, Lead

Glencore most exposed to mid

and late cycle commodities(2)

Illustrative commodity intensity

curves(1)

Early cycle

Com

moditie

s w

eig

hte

d b

y contr

ibution to 2

018F

EB

ITD

A

Notes: (1) Stylised intensity curves based on developed countries, indexed to 100 at maximum. (2) Source UBS, commodities weighted by contribution to 2018F EBITDA

The commodities that fuel maturing economies are changing

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Supportive fundamentals for our key commodities

• Near-term

• Most synchronised global economic growth environment in the last six years

• Solid demand and limited/no supply growth has underpinned a more favourable pricing environment

• Ongoing expansion in global manufacturing activity indicates supportive conditions for commodities into H2 2017

• The “greening” of the global economy is underway, underpinned by policies to curb greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution

• The government led Electric Vehicle Initiative(1) has set a goal for 30% electric vehicle market share for passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, buses and trucks by 2030.

– This represents more than 26 million vehicles based on 2016 passenger and commercial vehicle sales of c.87M units(2)

• The electric vehicle/energy storage system transition is expected to unlock material new sources of demand for enabling underlying commodities including copper, cobalt and nickel

17

56.3

52.1

56.6

58.1

51.4

50

Jul-16 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17

0.1

0.2 0.4

0.7

1.3

2.0

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Notes: (1) The Electric Vehicle Initiative is a multi-government policy forum comprising Canada, China, Finland, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, South Africa, Sweden, UK and USA.

(2) http://www.jato.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/2016-Global-Sales-Release-Final-1.pdf, https://www.vda.de/en/press/press-releases/20170201-Global-commercial-vehicle-market-expands-in-2016.html. (3) Source UBS.

(4) Data Bloomberg. (5) Source: IEA, Global EV Outlook 2017, Two million and counting. (6) Glencore estimates.

2 million electric cars so far (battery and plugin hybrid EV)(5)

Estimated electrification impact

per vehicle (avg NMC battery)(6)

China: 0.65M

USA: 0.56M

Japan: 0.15M

Key commodity prices

(Indexed Jan 2016)(4)

Global Manufacturing

expansion (PMI indices)(3)

80

130

180

230

280

330

80

130

180

Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17

Cobalt (RHS)

Copper

Germany

China

Japan

USA

EurozoneNEWC thermal

coal

Zinc

Million

vehicles

40-50kg

Ni5-15kg

Co

50-75kg

Cu+ Cu for charging

point

+ Cu for grid

access

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Marketing

Adjusted EBIT

Indexed

Well positioned for the future

18

Earnings diversified by

commodity and geography(1)

North

America

South

America

South Africa

CIS

Australia

Europe

Other Africa

Coal

Copper

Zinc

Nickel

Ferro

alloys

Oil

Marketing

The right commodity mix to

feed the changing needs of

maturing economies

Outstanding costs for our

key commodities – 2017F(2)

Significant low cost

growth potential:

Well capitalised asset base:

c.$38bn expansionary

capital since 2009

Resilience of marketing

earnings (3)

Maximizing value creation

through capital allocation

Highly FCF generative at

spot annualised prices (4)

Cu+c.400ktpa

Zn+c.500ktpa

Cu

Ni

Zn

Coal

$4.8bn

$2.6bn

$0.5bn

$4.1bn

Spot EBITDA $15.0bn

Spot FCF $7.1bn

Maintain strong

BBB/Baa

Equity cash flows

$1bn fixed Marketing distribution

Min. 25% Industrial

distribution

M&A + Other

Cu Zn

NiThermal

Coal

86c/lb

213c/lb$31/tmargin

Notes: (1) H1 2017 Adjusted EBITDA split calculated pre-coal hedging impact and corporate overheads. Geographic split based on operating asset EBITDA. (2) See slide 23 for production volumes underlying

2017 full year cost forecasts. (3) See notes on slide 9 for basis of calculation. (4) See slide 22 for basis of calculation

• Major producer of enabling

commodities (copper / cobalt /

nickel) that underpin the battery

chemistry likely to power future

EV and storage batteries

• Significant supplier of other mid

and late cycle commodities

such as zinc and thermal coal

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09p

f

20

10p

f

20

11p

f

20

12p

f

20

13p

f

20

14

20

15

20

16

+201

7

c.$4bn

• plus multi-commodity brownfield

growth options when the time is right

-9c/lb16c/lb pre Au

Ind.Other $0.3bn

Mktg $2.7bnIndustrial

Adjusted EBITDA

Indexed

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Q&A

Page 20: PowerPoint Presentation Template4ccc6686-5222... · H1 2017 Highlights Strong financial performance • Adjusted EBITDA(1,2) of $6.7bn, up 68%; Adjusted EBIT(1,2) of $3.8bn, up 334%

Appendix

Katanga Whole Ore Leach project, DRC

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H1 2017 industrial mine costs/margin reconciliation

21

Copper Feb Guidance(1) Actual H1(2)

Total copper production (kt) 1355.0 642.9

By-product production from other Depts (kt) -142.0 -75.3

Mopani production (kt) -66.0 -15.0

Net relevant production (kt) 1147.0

Implied H1 production kt (1147/2) 573.5

Actual H1 relevant production (kt) 552.6

Average H1 Cu Price (c/lb) 261 261

Full cash cost (c/lb) -89 -88

H1 Margin (c/lb) 172 173

H1 Margin ($/t) 3793 3815

Implied EBITDA ($M) 2175 2108

Less African Cu (ex. Mutanda) losses(3)

Implied from FY2016 (280/2) ($M) -140

Actual ($M) -173

Adj. EBITDA ($M) 2035 1935

Inventory adjustment and other ($M) -98

Reported H1 Adjusted EBITDA ($M) 1837

Zinc Feb Guidance(1) Actual H1(2)

Total Zinc production (kt) 1190.0 570.8

By-product production from other Depts (kt) -123.0 -59.0

85% payability (kt) -162.0 -76.8

Net relevant production (kt) 905.0

Implied H1 production kt (905/2) 452.5

Actual H1 relevant production (kt) 435.0

Average H1 Zn Price (c/lb) 122 122

Full cash cost (c/lb) -9 -9

H1 Margin (c/lb) 131 131

H1 Margin ($/t) 2885 2881

Adj.EBITDA ($M) 1306 1253

Reported H1 Adjusted EBITDA ($M) 1253

Nickel Feb Guidance(1) Actual H1(2)

Total Nickel (kt) 120.0 51.2

Koniambo (kt) -18.6 -8.0

Net relevant production (kt) 101.4

Implied H1 production kt (101.4/2) 50.7

Actual H1 relevant production (kt) 43.2

Average H1 Ni Price (c/lb) 442 442

Full cash cost (c/lb) -248 -240

H1 Margin (c/lb) 194 202

H1 Margin ($/t) 4283 4459

EBITDA ($M) 217 193

Inventory adjustment and other ($M) 18

Reported H1 Adjusted EBITDA ($M) 210

Coal Feb Guidance(1) Actual H1(2)

Total Coal (Mt) 135.0

Implied H1 production Mt (135/2) 67.5

Actual H1 production (Mt) 61.1

Average Cal17 NEWC price ($/t) 78 78

Portfolio mix adjustment ($/t) -6 -1

Full cash cost ($/t) -44 -45

H1 Margin ($/t) 28 32

Implied EBITDA ($M) 1890 1977

Less coal economic hedging

Implied from FY2016 MTM (225/2) -113

Actual ($M) -158

EBITDA ($M) 1778 1819

Reported H1 Adjusted EBITDA ($M) 1819

Notes: (1) Refer to slides 11,21 and 22 in the Preliminary Results 2016 presentation for February guidance on 2017 full year costs and production. (2) Refer to 2017 Half-year Production Report for actual H1

2017 production. (3) Pending delivery of major transformation projects at Katanga and Mopani.

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Illustrative “spot” annualised cashflows

22

Copper(1) Aug

Guidance

Total copper production (kt) 1330.0

By-product prod other Depts (kt) -145.5

Mopani production (kt) -63.0

Net relevant production (kt) 1121.5

Spot Cu price (c/lb) 290

Cost guidance (c/lb) -86

Margin (c/lb) 204

Margin ($/t) 4488

Illustrative EBITDA ($M) 5033

Less African Cu losses(9)

Estimated ($M) -250

Spot annualised Adj. EBITDA ($M) 4783

Zinc(2) Aug

Guidance

Total Zinc production (kt) 1130.0

By-product prod other Depts (kt) -125.2

85% payability (kt) -150.7

Net relevant production (kt) 854.1

Spot Zn Price (c/lb) 129

Cost guidance (c/lb) -9

Margin (c/lb) 138

Margin ($/t) 3045

Spot annualised Adj. EBITDA ($M) 2601

Nickel(3) Aug

Guidance

Total Nickel 115.0

Koniambo -20.0

Net production 95.0

Spot Ni Price (c/lb) 470

Cost guidance (c/lb) -213

Margin (c/lb) 257

Margin ($/t) 5664

Spot annualised Adj. EBITDA ($M) 538

Coal(4) Aug

Guidance

Total Coal (Mt) 132.0

Average Cal17 NEWC price ($/t) 83

Portfolio mix adjustment ($/t) -6

Cost guidance ($/t) -46.0

Margin ($/t) 31

Spot annualised Adj. EBITDA ($M) 4092

$bn

Copper EBITDA(1) 4.8

Zinc EBITDA(2) 2.6

Nickel EBITDA(3) 0.5

Coal EBITDA(4) 4.1

Other industrial EBITDA(5) 0.3

Marketing EBITDA(6) 2.7

Group Adj. EBITDA 15.0

Estimated cash taxes, interest + other -3.8

Capex(7) -4.1

Illustrative spot free cash flow(8) 7.1

Notes: (1) Copper spot annualised adjusted EBITDA calculated basis mid-point of production

guidance Slide 23 adjusted for copper produced by other divisions less Mopani production.

Spot LME price as at 7 August 2017. Costs include TC/RCs, freight, royalties and a credit for

custom metallurgical EBITDA. (2) Zinc spot annualised adjusted EBITDA calculated basis mid-

point of production guidance Slide 23 adjusted for zinc produced by other divisions less

adjustment for 85% payability. Spot LME price as at 7 August 2017. Cost includes credit for

custom metallurgical EBITDA. (3) Nickel spot annualised adjusted EBITDA calculated basis

mid-point of production guidance Slide 23. Spot LME price as at 7 August 2017. (4) Coal spot

annualised adjusted EBITDA calculated basis mid-point of production guidance Slide 23.

Estimated average (H1 Actual and Q4 2017 forward curve) 2017 NEWC of $83/t less $6/t

quality discount gives a $31/t margin to be applied across overall forecast group production of

132Mt. As at 30 June, 6Mt of the coal economic hedge remains and is expected to be settled

before 31 December 2017. (5) Other industrial EBITDA includes Ferroalloys, Oil and Aluminium

less c.$350M corporate SG&A. (6) Marketing Adjusted EBITDA calculated using the mid point

of Marketing Adjusted EBIT guidance on Slide 9 + $150M of Marketing D+A. (7) Industrial

capex including JV capex plus marketing capex of c.$75M in 2017F. (8) Excludes working

capital changes and distributions. (9) Excludes Mutanda

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2017 Production guidance

23

Commodity Unit Actual

FY 2015

Actual

FY 2016

Actual

H1 2017

Guidance

FY 2017

Production split

H1:H2 implied(1)

Copper kt 1,502 1,426 643 1,330 ± 25 48%:52%

Zinc kt 1,445 1,094 571 1,130 ± 25 51%:49%

Lead kt 298 294 139 285 ± 10 49%:51%

Nickel kt 96 115 51 115 ± 4 44%:56%

Ferrochrome kt 1,462 1,523 836 1,585 ± 25 53%:47%

Coal Mt 132 125 61 132 ± 3 46%:54%

Changes to production guidance:

• Copper: 25kt (2%) reduction, primarily Alumbrera related

• Zinc: 60kt (5%) reduction largely reflects the expected August to December production loss impact from sale of Rosh Pinah and Perkoa to Trevali Mining

• Lead: 15kt (5%) reduction reflects mine plan changes in Australia

• Nickel: 5kt (4%) reduction reflects maintenance delays in the first half

• Ferrochrome: 65kt (4%) reduction due to additional market driven maintenance days

• Coal: 3Mt (2%) reduction reflects the impact of year to date weather in Colombia and various other minor revisions

Notes: (1) Implied H2 production split derived from the mid-point of full year guidance less H1 actual production

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Distribution timetable

24

H2 2017 distribution timetable Jersey Johannesburg Hong Kong

Exchange rate reference date: 29 August

Last time to trade on JSE to be recorded in the

register on record date:5 September

Last day to effect removal of shares cum div

between Jersey and JSE registers:5 September

Final Ex-Div Date: 7 September 6 September 6 September

Last time for lodging transfers in Hong Kong: 4:30 PM, 7 Sep

Final Distribution record date: 8 September - Close 8 September - Close 8 September - Open

Deadline currency election (Jersey): 11 September

Removal of shares between Jersey and JSE: From 11 September

Exchange rate reference date: 13 September 13 September

Final Distribution payment date: 26 September 26 September 26 September