Poultry Situation and Outlook: 2003-04 Broilers, Turkeys and Eggs John D. Lawrence Extension...
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Poultry Situation Poultry Situation and Outlook: 2003-04 and Outlook: 2003-04 Broilers, Turkeys Broilers, Turkeys and Eggs and Eggs John D. Lawrence John D. Lawrence Extension Livestock Economist Extension Livestock Economist Iowa State University Iowa State University Presented at the American Agricultural Presented at the American Agricultural Economics Association Meetings, Montreal, Economics Association Meetings, Montreal, July 28, 2003, July 28, 2003,
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Transcript of Poultry Situation and Outlook: 2003-04 Broilers, Turkeys and Eggs John D. Lawrence Extension...
Poultry Situation and Poultry Situation and Outlook: 2003-04Outlook: 2003-04
Broilers, Turkeys and EggsBroilers, Turkeys and Eggs
John D. LawrenceJohn D. Lawrence
Extension Livestock EconomistExtension Livestock Economist
Iowa State UniversityIowa State University
Presented at the American Agricultural Economics Presented at the American Agricultural Economics Association Meetings, Montreal, July 28, 2003, Association Meetings, Montreal, July 28, 2003,
SupplySupply
• Tighter marginsTighter margins– Broilers: positive, but declining
– Turkeys: some negative, and declining
– Eggs: several negative, but stable
• Disease problemsDisease problems– Exotic Newcastle Disease
–Avian Influenza
– Some trade restrictions by state
DemandDemand• Domestic consumptionDomestic consumption– Egg down one egg
– Broilers on trend upward
– Turkeys stable
• ExportsExports– Broilers: Russia down 33% in 2002 and
new quota in 2003
– Turkeys: Down 10% in 2002
Broiler and Turkey Per Capita Consumption
02468
10121416
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Broilers Turkeys
Wholesale 12 City Broiler Meat Prices, RTC
$50
$52
$54
$56
$58
$60
$62
$64
J F M A M J J A S O N D2001 2002 2003
Tom Turkey Prices
$50$52$54$56$58$60$62$64$66$68$70
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2001 2002 2003
Net Return Before Interest & Overhead (Cents/lb or Dozen)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25J
-01
M-0
1
M-0
1
J-0
1
S-0
1
N-0
1
J-0
2
M-0
2
M-0
2
J-0
2
S-0
2
N-0
2
J-0
3
M-0
3
M-0
3
Broilers Turkeys Eggs
Layer Inventory, 1996-2003 (1000)
290,000
300,000
310,000
320,000
330,000
340,000
350,000J
an
-96
Ja
n-9
7
Ja
n-9
8
Ja
n-9
9
Ja
n-0
0
Ja
n-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Ja
n-0
3
Intended Placement Broiler-Type Chicks (1000)
6,0006,2006,4006,6006,8007,0007,2007,4007,6007,800
Jan
Feb Mar Apr
May Ju
nJu
lAug
Sep OctNov
Dec
2001 2002 2003
Broiler Production (Million Lbs)
7000
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4
2001 2002 2003 2004
Turkey Production (Million Lbs)
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4
2001 2002 2003 2004
Egg Production (Million Dozen)
1440
1460
1480
1500
1520
1540
1560
1580
1600
Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4
2001 2002 2003 2004
USDA Price ForecastUSDA Price Forecast
QuarterQuarter 20032003
33
20032003
44
20042004
11
20042004
22
12-City 12-City BroilersBroilers
60-6260-62+8%+8%
58-6258-62+12%+12%
57-6157-61-2%-2%
59-6359-63+2%+2%
Eastern Eastern TurkeysTurkeys
63-6563-65-4%-4%
68-7268-72+3%+3%
59-6359-630%0%
63-6763-67+7%+7%
New YorkNew York
EggsEggs
74-7674-76+15%+15%
77-8377-83+6%+6%
74-8074-800%0%
69-7569-75-3%-3%
Special ThanksSpecial Thanks
• Livestock Market Information Livestock Market Information CenterCenter
• USDA ERS Livestock, Dairy and USDA ERS Livestock, Dairy and PoultryPoultry
