PotashCorp - 2015 BMO Global Metals & Mining Conference
-
Upload
potashcorp -
Category
Investor Relations
-
view
555 -
download
2
Transcript of PotashCorp - 2015 BMO Global Metals & Mining Conference
PotashCorp.com
BMO Global Metals & Mining
Conference
February 24, 2015
Jochen Tilk
President and CEO
This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be
identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements often
contain words such as “should,” “could,” “expect,” “may,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “intend,” “estimates,” “plans” and similar expressions. These
statements are based on certain factors and assumptions, including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of
operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and
assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Forward-looking statements are subject
to risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. The results or events set forth in forward-looking statements may differ materially from
actual results or events. Several factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in forward-looking
statements including, but not limited to, the following: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth,
results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the
fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; costs and availability
of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; risks and uncertainties related to
operating and workforce changes made in response to our industry and the markets we serve; risks and uncertainties related to our international
operations and assets; failure to prevent or respond to a major safety incident; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit
and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world; risks
associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; catastrophic
events or malicious acts, including terrorism; changes in currency and exchange rates; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments
in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; our prospects to reinvest capital in strategic opportunities and acquisitions;
our ownership of non–controlling equity interests in other companies; the impact of further technological innovation; increases in the price or
reduced availability of the raw materials that we use; security risks related to our information technology systems; strikes or other forms of work
stoppage or slowdowns; timing and impact of capital expenditures; rates of return on, and the risks associated with, our investments and capital
expenditures; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; certain complications that may arise in our mining process,
including water inflows; our ability to attract, retain, develop and engage skilled employees; risks related to reputational loss; and earnings and
the decisions of taxing authorities which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for
the fiscal year ended December 31, 2014 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings
with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. As a result of these and other factors,
there is no assurance that any of the events, circumstances or results anticipated by forward-looking statements included in this presentation will
occur or, if they do, of what impact they will have on our business, our performance, the results of our operations and our financial condition.
Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this presentation and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the
forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
Forward-looking Statements
Slide#2
PotashCorp Overview
PotashCorp Overview
World’s largest fertilizer producer by capacity;
#1 in potash and among the largest in nitrogen
and phosphate.
Potash advantages include high margins and
significant barriers to entry.
Canadian potash operations and strategic offshore
investments position us to benefit from growth
markets.
World-class nitrogen and phosphate businesses
focused on historically more stable feed and
industrial markets.
Slide#4
Strategic Focus
Source: PotashCorp
Positioning for growth, while remaining low cost:
• Nearly complete CDN$8.4B expansion program, providing significant opportunity for future growth
• Operational capability for 2015 (10.9mmt) aligned with near-term demand + flexibility to meet surges
• Lower-cost producer; achieved $17/tonne* reduction in 2014 with further cost savings expected by 2016
Potash
Optimizing existing operations:
• Focused on improving operational reliability
• Phase one of Lima expansion finished; working towards completion in late 2015
Nitrogen
Improving gross margin opportunity:
• Focused on improving operational reliability
• Margin improvement opportunities identified and being implemented
Phosphate
Maximizing shareholder value:
• Significant cash flow generation potential ($2.6B** in 2014)
• Current dividend yield of more than 4%, including increase of ~9 percent in January 2015
• Reviewing capital allocation strategy, including assessment of equity investments and other opportunities
Investments
& Capital
Allocation
* Cash cost savings per tonne, excluding foreign exchange and royalty impacts
* * Cash flow from operating activities
Slide#5
PotashCorp Earnings Profile
Slide#6
0
1
2
3
4
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015F
Growth Expected to be Driven by Potash
Source: PotashCorp
58%
42%
Potash
Nitrogen & Phosphate
63%
41%
21%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Potash Nitrogen Phosphate
Percentage Net Sales – 5 Year Avg.
Earnings Per Share Gross Margin Breakdown Gross Margin %
US$
2015F*
*Assumes midpoint of gross margin guidance ranges for
potash and nitrogen/phosphate
Nutrient Highlights and Other Opportunities
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1999 2003 2007 2011 2015F 2019F
Shipments Shipment Range* Production
Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, PotashCorp
Million Tonnes KCl
Strong Demand Growth in 2014; Supply a Constraint
World Potash Production and Demand
* Midpoint of forecast shipment range based on ~2.5% annualized demand growth rate (1999-2019F).
Slide#8
1. Strong demand growth
• Agronomics and affordability drive consumption
growth in key markets
• Distributor inventories replenished in certain markets
from very low levels at the beginning of 2014
• Global shipments reach record level of >61mmt
2. Supply constraints emerge
• Operating capability, not demand, appeared to be the
constraining factor in 2014
• Global production of ~60mmt reflected operating
challenges for a number of producers
• Operating capability expected to increase only
modestly in 2015 as increases in Canada partially
offset by estimated curtailments in Russia and US
• Producer inventories also at low levels
2014 Highlights
1
2
Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, PotashCorp
2015 Demand Expected to Remain Strong; PotashCorp Well Positioned To Respond
Potash Market Outlook
Slide#9
Market2014
(mmt – KCl)
2015F(mmt – KCl)
North America 10.7 9.5 - 10.0
Latin America 11.5 10.8 - 11.3
Other Asia 8.8 8.3 - 8.7
China 13.7 12.5 - 13.0
India 4.4 4.5 - 4.8
Other 12.8 12.5 - 13.0
Total 61.9 58-60
1. Increased operational flexibility
• POT shipments estimated at 9.2-9.7mmt
• Increased operational capability to 10.9mmt
(+1.9mmt) to meet potential surges in demand
• New Brunswick facility ramping up; enhanced
flexibility to serve Latin and North American markets
1. North American distribution capability
• Increasing PCS Sales railcar fleet to better serve
North American market
• Completing new 120K ton warehouse at the
Hammond, Indiana distribution facility
1. Canpotex well-positioned
• Supply challenges in other regions present
opportunities for growth
• New MOU in China allows for customer growth and
diversity
• Expanding port facility in Portland to increase future
shipping capability
PotashCorp Opportunities
1
2
3
Focused on Aligning Operational Capability with Demand Growth
PotashCorp Operational Capability
Source: PotashCorp
1. Rocanville• Tonnes:+2.7mmt
• Timeframe: Planned ramp-up by 2016
• Capital: Within project estimates
2. Other SK Mines• Tonnes: +2.9mmt
• Timeframe: 3-12 months (from decision point)
• Capital: Minimal (<$60M)
3. New Brunswick*• Tonnes: +0.7mmt
• Timeframe: ~30 months (from decision point)
• Capital: Within project estimates
Incremental Capability
0
4
8
12
16
20
2015F Rocanville Other SKMines
NewBrunswick
Potential
Million tonnes KCl
* Operational capability will be staffed and ramped up according to anticipated
market demand and PotashCorp’s supply requirements
1
23 1
2
3
10.9
Slide#10
17.2
* Estimate assumes closure of Penobsquis and full ramp-up of Picadilly.
Option exists to reach 1.8mmt sooner by continuing to operate Penobsquis
in tandem with Picadilly ramp up
-$8/mt
-$17/mt
40
60
80
100
120
140
2013Cash Cost
ForeignExchange &
Royalties
OperationalEfficiencies
2014Cash Cost
2016Cash Cost
Target
Cash-related Cost of Goods Sold*
Depreciation and Amortization
Focused on Achieving 2016 Cost Savings of $20-$30 per Tonne (from 2013 Levels)
PotashCorp Cost Reduction Target
Source: PotashCorp
US$ - Per Tonne (Potash)
* Cash costs refers to total cost of goods sold less depreciation and amortization. As
compared to 2013 levels (not adjusted for inflation, changes to depreciation and amortization
or potash royalties); target assumes successful ramp up of expansions at lower-cost facilities
Slide#11
Plans to Achieve Target
1. Complete remaining lower-cost expansions
• Rocanville expansion on time and budget
• Picadilly in early ramp-up phase; operating Penobsquis
to meet customer demands during ramp up
2. Optimize production costs and mix
• Produce at lowest cost facilities in Saskatchewan, while
ensuring optimal product mix
• Shifting production in New Brunswick to lower-cost
Picadilly mine
1
2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Ukraine Trinidad Pakistan Egypt Algeria Libya
Production
Curtailed Capacity
Million Tonnes - NH3 (2014)
Production Outages in Key Regions Impacted 2014; Factor to Watch in 2015
Regional Ammonia Profile
Source: PotashCorp
Slide#12
2015 Highlights
1. Potential for fewer supply related outages
• Regional production issues expected to persist
• Lower energy prices could lead to increased
production in Europe and South East Asia
2. US production expected to remain advantaged
• Lower gas costs expected to persist for medium term
• Transportation challenges and costs of ammonia
exports expected to help insulate US market
3. Trinidad gas challenges
• Unlikely to improve significantly from 2014 levels
• Potential for new gas fields to come online as year
progresses
1
2
3
Focused on Reliability, Trinidad Gas Position and Disciplined Growth Opportunities
Ammonia Production
Source: PotashCorp
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2014 2015F LimaExpansion
(2016F)
TrinidadGas
(Longer-term)
ExistingPotential
Million Tonnes
Slide#13
Operational Priorities
1. Focus on operational reliability
• Achieved record sales in 2014 driven by high
operating rates; working to further enhance
2. Improve Trinidad gas situation
• Gas availability has limited ammonia production in
recent years and is expected to impact 2015;
working to minimize future impacts
3. Successful execution of Lima expansion
• On time and budget; expect incremental 100Kmt of
ammonia capacity for 2016
1. Assess other US opportunities
• Reviewing other high-IRR brownfield projects;
exploring other low-cost opportunities
1
2
3
4
Source: CRU, IFA, PotashCorp
90%
10%
PotashCorp Production Significantly More Diverse
Phosphate Industry Production Profile
Fertilizer
Feed &
Industrial
61%
39%
Feed &
Industrial
PotashCorp Sales By Category** (2015F)Global Phosphoric Acid Use* (2014)
Fertilizer
* Based on phosphoric acid directed to each product category ** Based on PotashCorp forecasted sales volumes
Slide#14
Focused on Reducing Costs and Leveraging Production Flexibility
Phosphate Gross Margin
Source: PotashCorp
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2013 GM ARO* &Water
Treatment
SuwanneeClosure
OtherFactors
2014 GM
Slide#15
US$ - Per Tonne 2015 Highlights
1. Optimizing product mix
• Plan to increase proportion of sales volumes to feed
and industrial products in 2015
• Feed and industrial gross margin premium of 77%
relative to fertilizer (five-year average)
2. Operational improvements progressing
• Improved mining conditions and recovery techniques
at Aurora expected to help reduce rock costs
• Process enhancements and procurement initiatives
expected to improve reliability and costs
3. Non-routine costs expected to be lower
• Accelerated depreciation of ~$48M related to
Suwannee River chemical plant taken in 2014
• Significant ARO charges in 2014 due to changing
interest rate and asset life expectations
1
2
3
* Asset retirement obligations
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016E 2018E
Source: PotashCorp
PotashCorp Capital Spending*
Capital Spending Declining; Dividend Increased ~9 Percent in January 2015
PotashCorp’s Opportunity
US$ Billions
* Cash additions to property, plant and equipment per cash flow statement (2008-2014); 2015F-2018E includes Major Repairs and Maintenance expenditures. As we
adopted International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) with effect from January 1, 2010, information from 2008-2009 is presented on a previous Canadian generally
accepted accounting principals (GAAP) basis. Accordingly, previous results may not be comparable to 2010 forward.
** Includes sustaining capital estimates and current remaining spending on existing opportunity projects
*** Indicated yield percentage as per Bloomberg at February 19, 2015.
Current Estimate**
Slide#16
4.1%
2.9%
2.0% 1.9%
0.0%0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
POT AGU CF MOS IPI
Percent Yield***
Dividend Yield
There’s more online:
PotashCorp.comVisit us online
Facebook.com/PotashCorpFind us on Facebook
Twitter.com/PotashCorpFollow us on Twitter
Thank you
Try Our Overview Site: www.potashcorp.com/overview
Looking For More Industry and Company Information?
Explore our Key Markets… Find Data on Key Crops… Learn about our Company