Positive Experiences with the Earthquakes Predictability
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Positive Experiences with Positive Experiences with the Earthquakes the Earthquakes Predictability Predictability Special presentation at the Symposium Hornická Special presentation at the Symposium Hornická Příbram 2013 Příbram 2013 Příbram Příbram 16.10.2013 16.10.2013 Pavel Kalenda Pavel Kalenda 1 , Libor Neumann , Libor Neumann 2 , Dimitar , Dimitar Ouzounov Ouzounov 3 , Václav Procházka , Václav Procházka 4 1 ÚSMH AV ČR, v.v.i. ÚSMH AV ČR, v.v.i. 2 ANECT Praha a.s. ANECT Praha a.s. 3 Chapman University, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866, USA, 4 Česká geologie, o.s. Česká geologie, o.s.
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Positive Experiences with the Earthquakes Predictability. Special presentation at the Symposium Hornická Příbram 2013 Příbram 16.10.2013 Pavel Kalenda 1 , Libor Neumann 2 , Dimitar Ouzounov 3 , Václav Procházka 4 1 ÚSMH AV ČR, v.v.i. 2 ANECT Praha a.s. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Positive Experiences with the Earthquakes Predictability
Positive Experiences with Positive Experiences with the Earthquakes the Earthquakes PredictabilityPredictability
Special presentation at the Symposium Hornická Special presentation at the Symposium Hornická Příbram 2013Příbram 2013
PříbramPříbram 16.10.201316.10.2013
Pavel KalendaPavel Kalenda11, Libor Neumann, Libor Neumann22, Dimitar , Dimitar OuzounovOuzounov33, Václav Procházka, Václav Procházka44
11 ÚSMH AV ČR, v.v.i. ÚSMH AV ČR, v.v.i. 22 ANECT Praha a.s. ANECT Praha a.s.
33 Chapman University, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866, USA,
44 Česká geologie, o.s. Česká geologie, o.s.
ContentContent
1) Introduction1) Introduction2) Prediction of the time window2) Prediction of the time window33) ) Prediction of the focal areaPrediction of the focal area4) Prediction of the magnitude4) Prediction of the magnitude
5) Conclusion5) Conclusion
Chapter 1Chapter 1
Introduction Introduction
Earthquake (EQ) prediction hasEarthquake (EQ) prediction has
6 (5) independent parameters:6 (5) independent parameters:
1)1) Time of the mainshockTime of the mainshock
2)2) The length of time windowThe length of time window
3)3) CenterCenter of the focal areaof the focal area
4)4) Radius of the focal areaRadius of the focal area
5)5) Minimum of magnitudeMinimum of magnitude
6)6) Magnitude range (not necessary if 10)Magnitude range (not necessary if 10)
Chapter 2Chapter 2
Prediction of time Prediction of time
Chapter 2Chapter 2Prediction of time Prediction of time - asperity model- asperity model
a – proportional limita – proportional limit
b – upper yield limitb – upper yield limit
c – lower yield limitc – lower yield limit
d – failure limitd – failure limit
(σ(σyy, ε, ε
yy) – deformation on the ) – deformation on the
proportional limitproportional limit
σσdd – tensile strength – tensile strength
εεdd - tensibility - tensibility
Chapter 2Chapter 2Prediction of time and its Prediction of time and its window - asperity modelwindow - asperity model
Anomalous periods and Anomalous periods and predicted windows of possible predicted windows of possible magnitudemagnitude before Okhotsk Sea M 7.7 EQ, before Okhotsk Sea M 7.7 EQ, Aug.12,2012Aug.12,2012
What is the length What is the length of the nucleation of the nucleation phase for M 7.7 phase for M 7.7 EQ?EQ?
Anomalous periods and Anomalous periods and predicted windows of possible predicted windows of possible magnitudemagnitude before Okhotsk Sea M 7.7 EQ, before Okhotsk Sea M 7.7 EQ, Aug.12,2012Aug.12,2012
What is the length What is the length of the nucleation of the nucleation phase for M 7.7 phase for M 7.7 EQ?EQ?
All of anomalies All of anomalies since June 2012 since June 2012 could be could be connected with connected with Okhotsk Sea EQOkhotsk Sea EQ
Anomalous periods and Anomalous periods and predicted windows of possible predicted windows of possible magnitudemagnitude before Okhotsk Sea M 7.7 EQ, before Okhotsk Sea M 7.7 EQ, Aug.12,2012Aug.12,2012
Indonesian EQ M 7.2 Indonesian EQ M 7.2 could be called could be called „foreshock“ of „foreshock“ of Sumatra M 8.6 Sumatra M 8.6 mainshockmainshock
Chapter 3Chapter 3
Prediction of focal areaPrediction of focal area
Typical anomaly at pendulum in Typical anomaly at pendulum in cave No.13C in Moravian Karstcave No.13C in Moravian Karstbefore Kurily EQ M 7.3, Nov.24, 2008before Kurily EQ M 7.3, Nov.24, 2008
Diurnal period of a noise
Beginning of nucleation period sensus stricto
Prediction based on the Prediction based on the detection of anomalous stress – detection of anomalous stress – Okhotsk Sea Okhotsk Sea August 14, 2012 mb=7.7 – August 14, 2012 mb=7.7 – oficially predictedoficially predicted
Diurnal period ofnoise
Beginning of nucleation phase s.s.
Typical anomalies of the tilt at Typical anomalies of the tilt at pendulum in Ida minependulum in Ida minebefore Chile EQ, February 27, 2010, before Chile EQ, February 27, 2010, M=8.8 and „Indonesian“ EQsM=8.8 and „Indonesian“ EQs
Main shock
Beginning of nucleation phase s.l.
Temporal and spatial characteristics for the earthquake alert before M7.3 Honshu 2012
(Ouzounov et al, 2013)
Spatial allocation
Temporal allocation
12.07.2012M7.3 Honshu
12.07.2012M7.3 Honshu
14 days
ALERT12.11.2012
-14 days
ALERT12.11.2012
-14 days
Temporal and spatial characteristics for the earthquake alert before M7.1 Banda sea 2012
(Ouzounov et al, 2013)
Spatial allocation
Temporal allocation
Earthquake
12.10.2012M7.1 Banda Sea
12.10.2012M7.1 Banda Sea
7 days
ALERT12.03.2012
-7 days
ALERT12.03.2012
-7 days
Chapter 4Chapter 4
Prediction of magnitudePrediction of magnitude
Chapter 4Chapter 4Prediction of time and its Prediction of time and its window - asperity modelwindow - asperity model
ConclusionConclusion The correct and full prediction of EQs The correct and full prediction of EQs
(area, time window and magnitude) is not (area, time window and magnitude) is not an an easy task. For this prediction easy task. For this prediction aas many s many different different methods covered the whole Earthmethods covered the whole Earth as possible must be used .as possible must be used .
NoNone of thesene of these method method should bshould be used e used alone.alone.
The prediction of the strongest EQs is The prediction of the strongest EQs is a a global task. The precursors could be global task. The precursors could be observed everywhere and many days observed everywhere and many days (M7) (M7) or even months or even months (M9) (M9) before before the mainshockthe mainshock..
The EQ prediction is POSSIBLE. It is The EQ prediction is POSSIBLE. It is aa real real scientific task.scientific task.
Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention
