Population Projections What will make them happen?
18
Population Projections What will make them happen? Hania Zlotnik
Transcript of Population Projections What will make them happen?
Population Projections
What will make them happen?
Hania Zlotnik
World population: 1750-2100
02468
1012141618
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
1975
2000
2025
2050
2075
2100
Bill
ion
s
Low High Medium
2.5 billion
7 billion
10.1 billion
6.2 billion
15.8 billion
Population by fertility level
Level of fertility Population percentage (number of countries)
Low (under one daughter per woman)
42 (74)
Intermediate (1.0 to 1.5)
40 (65)
High (more than 1.5 daughters per woman)
18 (58)
Countries classified by fertility level
High fertilityIntermediate fertilityLow fertility
Note: The boundaries shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.
18% 40%
42%
Fertility: 1950-2015
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1950
-195
5
1955
-196
0
1960
-196
5
1965
-197
0
1970
-197
5
1975
-198
0
1980
-198
5
1985
-199
0
1990
-199
5
1995
-200
0
2000
-200
5
2005
-201
0
2010
-201
5
Child
ren
per w
oman
.
4.5
1.6
6.7
4.4
High Intermediate
Low
5.4
World 2.4
Projected fertility in the medium variant by group of countries, 2010-2100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1953
1963
1973
1983
1993
2003
2013
2023
2033
2043
2053
2063
2073
2083
2093
Ch
ildre
n p
er w
om
an
1.6
4.5
2.4
Low
Intermediate
1.9
2.1
High
World
Future world population growth will be determined by growth in the high-fertility countries, even if their fertility
declines to replacement level by 2100
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
High
Low
Intermediate
Annual increment (millions)
4.9 2.8
2.1
Use of modern contraceptive methods vs. fertility
0102030405060708090
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Children per woman
Perc
enta
ge
Low-fertility Intermediate-fertility High-fertility
Unmet need vs. fertility
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Children per woman
Perc
enta
ge
Low-fertility Intermediate fertility High-fertility
Contraceptive use, 1990-2010
25
38
57
58
61
63
63
71
73
84
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Sub-Saharan Africa
Oceania
Southern Asia
Western Asia
Caucasus and Central Asia
Northern Africa
South-eastern Asia
Developed regions
LAC
Eastern Asia
1990
2010
Unmet need for family planning, 1990-2010
26
24
15
14
13
11
11
10
3
0 10 20 30 40 50
Sub-Saharan Africa
Oceania
Western Asia
Southern Asia
Caucasus and Central Asia
South-eastern Asia
Northern Africa
LAC
Eastern Asia
1990
2010
Years needed to satisfy unmet need at pace set during 1990-2007
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
East Africa Middle Africa
West Africa Asia LAC Oceania
Years to satisfy current unmet need if medium variant is to be reached
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Africa Asia-NorthAfrica
India LAC Asia CIS
Years needed at current pace Years desired
Percentage change in per capita donor assistance for family planning programmes among woman aged
15-49, 1996 to 2006
Per capita assistance increased Per capita donor assistance declined
(by less than 50 per cent)
Per capita donor assistance declined (by 50 per cent or more)
No data available or not applicable
Percentage literate among women
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
LATAM East Asia andPacific
Middle East andNorth Africa
South Asia Sub-SaharanAfrica
1990 15+
2009 15+
o
1990 15-24
2009 15-24
Projected millions of pupils in primary, Sub-Saharan Africa
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Medium
High
Primary teachers required in Sub-Saharan Africa according to different scenarios
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mill
ions
Medium - Constant P/T Medium - Medium P/T Medium - Low P/THigh - Constant P/T High - Medium P/T High - Low P/T
