Population Growth and Demography
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Transcript of Population Growth and Demography
Population Growth and Demography
Link to syllabus
Link to WDI
Chapter 4 of Richards and Waterbury
Table 4.1 p. 73 (R&W). Demographic Indicators. 1970-2003
Population Growth in MENA
Source: World Bank (2004) Unlocking Employment
Population Growth Rates: MENA and other RegionsPopulation Growth Rates, Regional Averages.
%/yr.
0
1
2
3
4
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Middle East & NorthAfricaHigh income: OECD
East Asia & Pacific
Latin America &CaribbeanSouth Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
MENA had one of highest rates; it has been declining since 1990
Population Growth: countries
Population Growth Rates (%/yr)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
AlgeriaBahrainEgypt, Arab Rep.Iran, Islamic Rep.IraqJordanKuwaitLebanonLibyaMoroccoOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaSyrian Arab RepublicTunisiaTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesWest Bank and GazaYemen, Rep.
Population growth, non GCC
Population Growth Rates Non-GCC (%/yr)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
AlgeriaEgypt, Arab Rep.Iran, Islamic Rep.IraqJordanLebanonLibyaMoroccoOmanSyrian Arab RepublicTunisiaTurkeyWest Bank and GazaYemen, Rep.
Figure 6-2 (Lynn text). Demographic Transition. Page 144
Source: Lynn, Economic Development
Link to MENA_PopGrowth.xls
Source: Can’t find the title, but the page numbers were: 19, 40
Note: the change in pop. growth is bigger than the change in birth ratesThere will be a growth in the working-age population, a generation later.
Algeria
1960
1966
1972
1978
1984
1990
1996
2002
2008
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Birth rate, crude (per 100 people)Death rate, crude (per 100 people)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Population growth (annual %)
Egypt
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Birth rate, crude (per 100 people)Death rate, crude (per 100 people)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Population growth (annual %)
Lebanon
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5
Birth rate, crude (per 100 people)Death rate, crude (per 100 people)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Population growth (annual %)
Yemen
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Birth rate, crude (per 100 people)Death rate, crude (per 100 people)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Population growth (annual %)
Death Rates RegionsDeath Rates/1000, Regional Averages
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Middle East & NorthAfricaHigh income: OECD
East Asia & Pacific
Latin America &CaribbeanSouth Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: WDI data
Death Rates: CountriesDeath Rates/1000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
AlgeriaBahrainEgypt, Arab Rep.Iran, Islamic Rep.IraqJordanKuwaitLebanonLibyaMoroccoOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaSyrian Arab RepublicTunisiaTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesWest Bank and GazaYemen, Rep.
Source: WDI data
Birth Rates: Regional AveragesBirth Rates, Regional Averages
10
100
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Middle East & NorthAfricaHigh income: OECD
East Asia & Pacific
Latin America &CaribbeanSouth Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: WDI data
BirthRates/1000Birth Rates/1000, 1960-2004
10
100
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
AlgeriaBahrainEgypt, Arab Rep.Iran, Islamic Rep.IraqJordanKuwaitLebanonLibyaMoroccoOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaSyrian Arab RepublicTunisiaTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesWest Bank and GazaYemen, Rep.
Fertility Rates: WDI
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0AlgeriaBahrainEgyptIranIraqIsraelJordanKuwaitLebanonLibyaMoroccoOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaSyriaTunisiaTurkeyU.A.E.
Yemen
Israel
El-Tigani’s data on fertility rates for Egypt and Tunisia
Theories on FertilityFactors increasing birth rate: Mother: Better health of mother. Longer life. Better health care. Demand: Assumption would be that with higher income, more kids – Explained away by Becker as demand for quality.Factors decreasing birth rate: Mother: age at marriage, more equal divorce laws Demand: --Higher opportunity cost of mother’s time – education; --Higher cost of education and medical care for children. (Becker said demand for higher quality children) --Decreased need for farm work. --Existence of government programs: Social Security and health --Family planning programs, including and especially the availability of contraceptives (and abortion in some countries). --Changing social norms about desirability of large family, male/female children, and use of contraceptives.
Larry Summers on Education of Young Women
In 1992, Larry Summers, then chief economist of the World Bank [later US Secretary of Treasury, and President of Harvard], argued that giving 100 girls one additional year of primary education would prevent 60 infant deaths and 3 maternal deaths, while averting some 500 births. This would have cost $30,000 for 100 girls, thus the social benefits alone of increased education of girls is more than sufficient to cover its costs—even before considering the added earnings power of this education.
(Stephen C. Smith Case Studies in Economic Development)
Figure 4.4 p. 79 (R&W). Changes in Fertility: Morocco
Figure 4.5 p. 79 (R&W) Total Fertility and Education: Morocco, Palestine and Egypt
Standard story: higher education, lower fertility.
Government Policy Orientations
Table 4.3 p. 82 (R&W). Policy on Fertility Level, MENA Countries.
Arab government policies on fertility and access to contraceptives
Source: Faour (1989)
Schematic Illustration of the “Proximate” Causes of the Decline in Egyptian Fertility
Source: Robinson and El-Zanaty (2006) The Demographic Revolution in Modern Egypt
Suggests that themost important causeof the decline in fertility is the use ofcontraceptive methods
Contraceptive Use by Region:% of Women 15-49 Years Old
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Middle East & North Africa (all income levels)
East Asia & Pacific (all income levels)
Latin America & Car-ibbean (all income lev-els)South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa (all income levels)
High income: OECD
Source: WDIThe percentage of women who are practicing, or whose sexual partners are practicing, any form of contraception
10
100Contraceptive Prevalence (% Women 15-49)
AlgeriaBahrainEgypt, Arab Rep.Iran, Islamic Rep.IraqIsraelJordanKuwaitLebanonLibyaMoroccoOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaSyrian Arab RepublicTunisiaTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesWest Bank and GazaYemen, Rep.
Contraceptive prevalence rate is the percentage of women who are practicing, or whose sexual partners are practicing, any form of contraception. It is usually measured for married women ages 15-49 only. (Source: WDI)
Contraceptive Use in Tunisia and Turkey
Decomposition of Change in Fertility Rate p. 51
Source: World Bank (2004) Unlocking the Employment Potential in the MENA page 51
Regression Results
Source: Faour (1989)
The 1994 Cairo Population Conference
• Vatican and certain Muslim countries agreed on opposing the position in favor of women’s rights, family planning, and abortion, as well as neo-Malthusian alarms.
• Compromise was to emphasize women’s status inside the family, downplay Malthus, while separating abortion from family planning.
Source: Bowen, “Abortion, Islam, and the 1994 Cairo Population Conference,” IJMES May, 1997
EgyptDemog.pdf
Source: “Egypt 1995: Results From the Demographic and Health Survey,” Studies in Family Planning Vol. 28#3, 1997
The next few slides come from the following source.
Fertility differentials
Source: “Egypt 1995: Results From the Demographic and Health Survey,” Studies in Family Planning Vol. 28#3, 1997
Egypt
Contraceptive prevalence
Source: “Egypt 1995: Results From the Demographic and Health Survey,” Studies in Family Planning Vol. 28#3, 1997
Egypt
Contraceptive use among married women
Source: “Egypt 1995: Results From the Demographic and Health Survey,” Studies in Family Planning Vol. 28#3, 1997
Egypt
Contraceptive Prevalence, by age and number of living children
Source: “Egypt 1995: Results From the Demographic and Health Survey,” Studies in Family Planning Vol. 28#3, 1997
Egypt
Desire to stop childbearing
Source: “Egypt 1995: Results From the Demographic and Health Survey,” Studies in Family Planning Vol. 28#3, 1997
Egypt
Percentage Distribution of contraceptive users, by source of supply
Egypt:
Demographic Data for Jordan
Jordan: Fertility Differentials
Jordan: Contraceptive Use Differentials
Jordan: Contraceptive prevalence, by age and number of children
Distribution of Modern Methods, by source of supply
Jordan
Demographic Data for Syria
Syria: Fertility by residence and education
Demographic Data on Lebanon
Studies in Family Planning, June 2001
Lebanon: Fertility Trends
Source: Studies in Family Planning, June 2001
Lebanon: Fertility Differentials
Source: Studies in Family Planning, June 2001
Lebanon: Current Contraceptive Use
Source: Studies in Family Planning, June 2001
Lebanon: Sources of Supply for Modern Contraceptives
Source: Studies in Family Planning, June 2001
Lebanon: Knowledge of Contraceptive Methods
Source: Studies in Family Planning, June 2001
Detailed data on Demographic Variable for Turkey
Fix this
Turkey Fertility differentials, 1992
Turkey: Fertility Differentials, 1992
Turkey Contraceptive prevalence differentials
Turkey
Turkey Knowledge and use of contraceptives
Turkey
Family Planning in Iran
World Bank on Iranian Family Planning
Source: World Bank Unlocking the Employment Potential of the MENA, p. 52
Population policy in Iran
Studies in Family Planning, March 2000. First author is an anthropologistin Montreal; second is Adviser to Ministry of Public Health in Tehran
The New York Times July 27, 2010
Iran’s Leader Introduces Plan to Encourage Population Growth by Paying Families
TEHRAN (AP) — President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad inaugurated a new policy on Tuesday to encourage population growth, dismissing decades of internationally acclaimed family planning in Iran as ungodly and a Western import.
The new government effort will pay families for every new child and deposit money into the newborns’ bank accounts until they reach 18, Mr. Ahmadinejad said. The program effectively rolled back years of efforts to strengthen the economy by reducing population growth.
Those who raise the idea of family planning “are thinking in the realm of the secular world,” Mr. Ahmadinejad said during a ceremony at which he presented the new policy. The plan is part of his previously stated desire to increase Iran’s population, estimated at more than 70 million. He has previously said Iran could support as many as 150 million people.
The program is expected to be especially attractive to lower-incomepeople, who formed the backbone of Mr. Ahmadinejad’s support in thepresidential elections in 2005 and 2009.
Throughout his tenure, the president has promoted populist policies inIran, where 10 million people are estimated to live below the poverty line.
It is unclear, however, where the money would come from to pay for thenew incentives because the government is already having trouble payingfor basic public works projects.
Starting in the early 1970s, Iran waged a successful family planningcampaign across the country. It included banners in public health carecenters that said, “Two children are enough.”
The effort was reversed after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, only to bebrought back 10 years later after the population expanded rapidly andthe economy faltered.
Throughout the 1990s, Iran reduced population growth by encouraging menand women to use free or inexpensive contraceptives, as well as bypromoting vasectomies. The government brought down the population growthrate to 1.6 percent from a high in 1986 of 3.9 percent.
Mr. Ahmadinejad caused an outcry after he was elected in 2005, when hesaid two children per family were not enough and urged Iranians to havemore.
Iranian roadside billboards promote large familiesThe Telegraph (U.K. Dec. 9, 2013)
Iranian motorists are experiencing the novelty of being advised to have large families as part of a state-backed programme aimed at replacing birth control policies with a baby boom
Iran: Age Distribution, 1986-2020
Source: chapter by Salehi-Isfahani, in Katouzian and Shahidi (eds.) Iran in the 21st Century
Family Planning Programs in Egypt
Egypt: Growth of Health Infrastructure 1940-1995
Source: Robinson and El-Zanaty (2006) The Demographic Revolution in Modern Egypt
Donor Assistance to the Egyptian Family Program
Source: Robinson and El-Zanaty (2006) The Demographic Revolution in Modern Egypt
Egypt: Family Planning Poster
Source: Kamran Asdar Ali (1997)
Another poster
Source: Kamran Asdar Ali (1997)
Egypt’s Birthrate Rises as Population Control
Policies VanishEgyptian women talked with a volunteer at a health clinic in Cairo about contraceptive options
.President Mohamed Morsi remains silent about the future of the family planning programs put in place by the government of former President Hosni Mubarak, as the country's birthrate surges to a 20-year high.
Officials have dropped the awareness campaigns of the past, in an early indication of how the Islamist leadership is approaching social policy in the most populous Arab state.
New York Times, May 2, 2013
Salehi-Isfahani on Fertility in Iran
Source: D. Salehi-Isfahani “Familty Planning and Rural Fertility Decline In Iran: A Study in Program Evaluation”
Decline in Fertility: Iran & Turkey
Source: D. Salehi-Isfahani “Familty Planning and Rural Fertility Decline In Iran: A Study in Program Evaluation”
Total Fertility Rates in LDCs p. 48
Source: World Bank (2004) Unlocking the Employment Potential in the MENA page 48
Fertility: Regional Aggregates (WDI)
Fertility Rate, Regional Averages. Births/woman
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Middle East & NorthAfricaHigh income: OECD
East Asia & Pacific
Latin America &CaribbeanSouth Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Fertility Rates: Countries
Fertility Rate, Births/Woman
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
AlgeriaBahrainEgypt, Arab Rep.Iran, Islamic Rep.IraqJordanKuwaitLebanonLibyaMoroccoOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaSyrian Arab RepublicTunisiaTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesWest Bank and GazaYemen, Rep.
Source: WDI data
Contraceptive prevalence rates by program effort and socio-economic setting
Source: Faour (1989) p. 269
Faour’s comment on population education (p. 260)
Arab countries/Islam and abortion
Source: Faour (1989) p. 260
Arab countries and sterilization
Non-Nationals as Share of Labor Force
Source: World Bank (2004) Unlocking Employment
Link to Individual Country Contraception data
Source: WDI, listed in
http://www-personal.umd.umich.edu/~mtwomey/econhelp/344files/R-o-WFert.xls
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
10
100Contraceptive Prevalence (% Women 15-49)
East Asia & Pacific (all income levels)
High income: OECD
Latin America & Caribbean (all income levels)
Middle East & North Africa (all income levels)
South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa (all income levels)
Contraceptive prevalence rate is the percentage of women who are practicing, or whose sexual partners are practicing, any form of contraception. It is usually measured for married women ages 15-49 only.
Infant Mortality, by Regions
1960
1968
1976
1984
1992
2000
2008
1
10
100
1,000
Middle East & North Africa (all income levels)
East Asia & Pa-cific (developing only)
Latin America & Caribbean (all income levels)
OECD members
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa (all income lev-els)
1960
1971
1982
1993
2004
020406080
100120140160180 Middle East &
North Africa (all income levels)
East Asia & Pa-cific (developing only)
Latin America & Caribbean (all income levels)
OECD members
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa (all income levels)
(semi-log graph)
Source: WDI
Infant Mortality
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
0
50
100
150
200
250
300 AlgeriaBahrainEgypt, Arab Rep.Iran, Islamic Rep.IraqIsraelJordanKuwaitLebanonLibyaMoroccoOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaSyrian Arab RepublicTunisiaTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesWest Bank and GazaYemen, Rep.
Source: WDI