Population:Global Patterns and Trends

Introduction to Global StudiesXIDS 2301

• Farmers protest• Food riots• http://www.nytimes.com/

2008/04/18/world/americas/18food.html

The light blue line shows that between 2005 and 2007, food prices have increased by more than 50%.

Thus, a basket of food that cost $20 in 2005 cost more than $30 in 2007.

How does “population” account for the rising demand

for food in the “developing world”?

World Population Clock

Natural Increase per World

More Developed Countries

Less Developed Countries

Less Developed Countries (less China)

Year 80,794,218 1,234,907 79,559,311 71,906,587

Day 221,354 3,383 217,971 197,004

Minute 154 2 151 137

2005

Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

World Population Growth (in billions)

Population: Global Patterns and Trends

1. Size2. Growth3. Distribution4. Composition

Population: Global Patterns and Trends

1. Size

A.D.2000

A.D.1000

A.D.1

1000B.C.

2000B.C.

3000B.C.

4000B.C.

5000B.C.

6000B.C.

7000B.C.

1+ million years

8

7

6

5

2

1

4

3

OldStoneAge New Stone Age

BronzeAge

IronAge

MiddleAges

ModernAge

Black Death —The Plague

9

10

11

12

A.D.3000

A.D.4000

A.D.5000

18001900

1950

1975

2000

2100

Future

Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).

World Population Growth Through History (in billions)

Ninth

Eighth

Seventh

Sixth

Fifth

Fourth

Third

Second

First Billion

Number of years to add each billion (year)

All of Human History(1800)

130 (1930)

30 (1960)

15 (1975)

12 (1987)

12 (1999)

14 (2013)

14 (2027)

21 (2048)

Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

World Population Growth

World Population Growth (in billions)

Population: Global Patterns and Trends

2. Growth

Principal components of population growth:

--Natural Increase

--Net Migration

Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1950-1955

1955-1960

1960-1965

1965-1970

1970-1975

1975-1980

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

Birth rate Death rate

Natural Increase

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide

Time

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

Naturalincrease

Birth rate

Death rate

Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

The Classic Stages of Demographic Transition

Population: Global Patterns and Trends

2. Growth

Principal components of population growth:

--Natural Increase BR, DR; also TFR

--Net Migration (immigration, emigration)

© 2008 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU

Every Country Has a Different Pattern of Fertility Decline.

Sources: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision; Population Reference Bureau; and Korea National Statistics Office.

Fertility Patterns for Selected Countries: 1950-2010

Total Fertility Rates (2000-2005)

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Percent of Population Living on <$2 per Day

Source: Population Reference Bureau, Population & Economic Development Linkages 2007 Data Sheet.

Total Fertility Rate

Niger

Jordan

Mongolia

Association Between Fertility and Poverty

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Percent of Girls Enrolled in Secondary School

Source: Population Reference Bureau, Population & Economic Development Linkages 2007 Data Sheet.

Total Fertility Rate

Palestinian Territory

Uruguay

Morocco

Association Between Fertility and Education

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Female Labor Force Participation Rate 2004

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005; International Labor Organization, Yearbook of Labor Statistics 2006.

Total Fertility Rate 2000-2004

Turkey

DjiboutiPhilippines

Association Between Fertility and Employment

Population: Global Patterns and Trends

3. Distribution

Map of World Population ~2000

Cartogram adjusts area by some value, such as size of population

Population Growth

World Population Growth (in billions)

Year 1

World Map

Year 1

1500

1900

1960

2000

2050

2300

Total Fertility Rates (2000-2005)

Total Fertility Rates (1970-1975)

Childhood Mortality Among the Poor

66

105

114

121

128

149

183

189

206

257

Philippines 2003

Bolivia 2003

Lesotho 2004

Bangladesh 2004

Ghana 2003

Kenya 2003

Malawi 2004

Cameroon 2004

Burkina Faso 2003

Nigeria 2003

Poorest Economic QuintileDeaths under age 5 per 1,000 births

Source: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys.

Population Living on Less Than US$2 per Day2002

Percent

50

7875

41

23 20

World South Asia Sub-SaharanAfrica

East Asia and thePacific

Latin Americaand the

Caribbean

Middle Eastand North

Africa

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2006.

Population: Global Patterns and Trends

4. Composition

© 2008 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU

By 2050, One in Every Five Americans Will Be Age 65 or Older.

Source: Population Reference Bureau, analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.

Percent of U.S. Population in Selected Age Groups: 1970-2050