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Population Geography

The problems to be faced are vast and complex, but come down to this: 6.2 billion people are breeding exponentially. The process of fulfilling their wants and needs is stripping earth of its biotic capacity to produce life; a climatic burst of consumption by a single species is overwhelming the skies, earth, waters and fauna.

-- Paul Hawken (www.paulhawken.com) 

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Thailand as an Example

Can a country sharply reduce its population growth in only 15 years? – In 1971, Thailand adopted a policy to reduce

population growth.

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Thailand (cont)

Several reasons account for this impressive feat: 1. the creativity of the government-supported family planning

program 2. the high literacy rate among women (90%) 3. an increasing economic role for women and advances in women's

rights 4. better health care for mothers and children 5. the openness of the Thai people to new ideas 6. the willingness of the government to encourage and financially

support family planning and to work with the private nonprofit Population and Community Development Association (PCDA)(http://www.pda.or.th/eng/project_aids.htm)

7. support of family planning by the country's religious leaders (95% of Thais are Buddhist)

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How is Population Size Affected by Birth and Death Rates?

Populations grow or decline through the interplay of three factors:

• births

• deaths

• migration

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Demographic Birth & Death Rates

• Crude Birth Rate (CBR) - the number of live births per 1000 people in a population in a given year.

• Crude Death Rate (CDR) - the number of deaths per 1000 people in a population in a given year.

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Crude Birth Rates (CBR)

• annual number of live births per 1000 population.

• It is "crude" because it relates births to total population without regard to the age or sex composition of that population.

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Crude Birth Rate (cont)

The crude birth rate of a country is strongly influenced by;

• age structure of population

• sex structure of population

• customs & family size expectations

• adopted population policies

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National crude birth rates vary widely today

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Lowering Crude Birth Rates China's Way

• In 1965 Chairman Mao stated an ever larger population was "a good thing," when China's CBR was 37 per 1000 and its population was 540 million.

• In 1976 population reached 852 million although the CBR declined to 25.

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China's Way (cont)

"One couple, one child" became the slogan in 1979 backed by both incentives and penalties.

• late marriages were encouraged

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China's Way (cont)

Single child families received:

• free contraceptives

• cash awards

• abortions

• sterilization

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China's Way (cont)

Penalties included:

• steep fines for second births

• sterilization of husband or wife of families with more than one child

Penalties resulted in:

• Infanticide

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China's Way (cont)

• Prosperous Urbanites

• Successful Population Controls

• Population Projections

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China's Way (cont)

Falling fertility rates will result in:

• declining proportion of working-age people

• inadequate number of people to care for rapidly growing number of senior citizens.

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Factors Affecting Birth Rates

Religious

• Roman Catholics and Muslims

Political

• Italy

• European governments

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Crude Death Rate (CDR)

• Crude Death Rate (CDR) - the number of deaths per 1000 people in a population in a given year.

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Crude Birth/Death Rates Developed vs. Developing World

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Average Crude/Death Rates

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World Birth/Death Rate Trend

• Birth rates and death rates are coming down worldwide, but death rates have fallen more sharply.

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World Population Change

Rate expressed as a percentage:

Annual rate of         Birth rate - Death rate

natural population   =   --------------------------------

change (%)                          10

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World Population Change (cont)

• Exponential growth

• World annual population growth rate

• Actual Population change

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Annual World Population Growth 2002

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World Population Growth Rates 1950 - 2050

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Population Number by Country

• China (1.33 billion in 2010) and

• India (1.2 billion in 2011) make up 37% of the world's population.

• US (312 million as of 12/7/2011) has the world's third largest population but only 4.6% of the world's people.

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Current & Projected Population 2004/2025

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Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

• More refined that the crude birth rate.

• Shows the rate of reproduction among fertile females 15 – 49 years old.

• CBR the denominator includes the entire population including males and females not of reproductive age.

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Decline in Total

Fertility Rates (TFRs)

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World TFRs 2002

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Population Projections

• UN population projections to 2050 vary depending on the world's projected average TFR.

• Next slide: UN population projections to 2050

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UN Population Projections to 2050

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Case Study: U.S. Fertility Rate Changes

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U.S. Birth Rates 1910 - 2002

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U.S. Population Growth,

1900 - 2000 and Projected

to 2100.

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Factors Affecting Birth Rates and Fertility Rates

• Importance of children as a part of the labor force. • Urbanization. • Cost of raising and educating children. • Educational and employment opportunities for women. • Infant mortality rate. • Average age at marriage • Availability of private and public pension systems. • Religious beliefs, traditions and cultural norms. • Availability of legal abortions. • Availability of reliable birth control methods.

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Typical Effectiveness Rates of Birth

Control Methods in

the U.S.

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Typical Effectiveness Rates of Birth Control Methods in the

U.S.

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Typical Effectiveness Rates of Birth

Control Methods in

the U.S.

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What Factors Affect Death Rates?

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Demographic Transition

As countries become industrialized, first their death rates and then their birth rates decline in four steps:

• Pre-Industrial Stage

• Transitional Stage

• Industrial Stage

• Post-Industrial Stage

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Indicators of Overall Health

• Two useful indicators of overall health of people in a country or region are:

• life expectancy - the average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live

• infant mortality rate - the number of babies out of 1000 born who die before their first birthday

Hans Rosling

• Swedish medical doctor, academic, statistician and public speaker

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRLYSojo&feature=player_embedded

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Demographic Transition

As countries become industrialized, first their death rates and then their birth rates decline in four steps:

• Pre-Industrial Stage

• Transitional Stage

• Industrial Stage

• Post-Industrial Stage

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Distribution of HIV - 2001

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World infant mortality rates in 2002.

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2009 World Infant Mortality Rates

• 2.75/1000 births: Sweden

• 6.26/1000 births: U.S. (45th)

• 151/1000 births: Afghanistan (almost last)

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Factors Keeping the Infant Mortality Rate Higher than it Could Be

• inadequate health care for poor women during pregnancy and for their babies after birth

• drug addiction among pregnant women

• the high birth rate among teenagers

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Age Structure Diagrams

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Rapid Growth

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Slow Growth

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Zero Growth

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Negative Growth

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How Does Age Structure Affect Population Growth?

• Any country with many people below 15 years old (represented by a wide based population structure diagram) has a powerful built-in momentum to increase its population size unless death rates rise sharply.

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Population Structure of the

Developed Countries -

2002

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Population Structure of

the Developing Countries -

2002

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Population Data for The US, Brazil & Nigeria

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How Can Age Structure Diagrams Be Used To Make Population and Economic

Projections?

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Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S.

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Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont)

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Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont)

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Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont)

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Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont)

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Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont)

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Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont)

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Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont)

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Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont)

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Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont)

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Workers Supporting Beneficiaries Social Security – 1945 - 2075

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Baby Bust Generation aka Generation X

• Jeff Gordinier is tired of being force-fed the Beatles, the Summer of Love, Facebook and Britney Spears. He says being heard over the media din about boomers and their offspring, Generation Y, or "millenials" as they're now known, isn't just a challenge, it's annoying. Being overlooked and underappreciated? It's never-ending for him and his tribe of fellow Gen-Xers.

• http://www.time.com/time/arts/article/0,8599,1731528,00.html?imw=Y

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What Are Some Effects of Population

Decline from Reduced Fertility?

• Population geographers and health officials project that the current HIV/AIDS epidemic will claim more lives (mostly in Africa and eventually in India and China) in the early part of this century than WWII did.

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Solutions: Influencing Population Size

• How Is Population Size Affected by Migration?• Immigration in the United States• What Are the Pros and Cons of Reducing Births?• How Can Economic Development Help Reduce Birth

Rates?• How Can Family Planning Help Reduce Birth and

Abortion Rates and Save Lives?• How Can Empowering Women Help Reduce Birth

Rates?• What Success Has China Had in Controlling Its

Population Growth?

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How Is Population Size Affected by Migration?

• The population of an area is affected by movement of people into (immigration) and out of (emigration) that area.

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Immigration in the United States

• Between 1820 and 2000, the US has admitted almost twice as many immigrants and refugees as all other countries combined.

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Immigrants as Percent of U.S. Population – 1820-2004

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What Are the Pros and Cons of Reducing Births?

• The projected increase of the human population from 6.2 to 9.3 billion or more between 2002 and 2050 raises an important question:

Can the world provide an adequate standard of living for 3.1 billion more people without causing widespread environmental damage?

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Question We Should Be Asking….

• What is the optimum sustainable population of the earth based on the planet's cultural carrying capacity?

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Slowing Population Growth

Proponents of slowing population growth contend that if we do not sharply lower birth rates, we are deciding by default to:

• raise death rates for humans (already occurring in parts of Africa)

• greatly increase environmental harm.

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US Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society of London

In 1992, for example, the US Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society of London issued the following joint statement:

• "If current predictions of population growth and patterns of human activity on the planet remain unchanged, science and technology may not be able to prevent either irreversible degradation of the environment or continued poverty for much of the world."

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How Can Economic Development Help Reduce Birth Rates?

• Population geographers have examined the birth and death rates of western European countries that industrialized during the 19th century.

• They developed a hypothesis of population change known as the demographic transition.