Population & Migration Patterns & Processes

2.7 Population Policies 2.8 Women and Demographic Change

2.9 Aging Populations Week Six September 20, 2021

Welcome to week 6 of the bell ringers! Students will consider the short- and long-term effects of changes in population on the economics, politics, and culture of places. They will learn specifically about topics 2.7 Population Policies, 2.8 Women and Demographic Change, and 2.9 Aging Populations. Materials to use directly with students, formerly known as the 3 for 3s, follow the teacher materials.

2.7 Population Policies

In learning about population policies, students consider the intent and effects of population and immigration policies on population size and composition. This topic is specifically focused on how political factors influence population. Most teachers focus on population policies at the national scale, but the topic can also be examined at the regional scale (how do differences in development influence transnational migration?) or the subnational scale (in federal systems of governance, how might local governments directly influence birth rates?). FLASHBACK TO PREVIOUS CONTENT: Population composition and dynamics and the country’s stage in the DT directly influence population policies.

A readable overview of the topic can be found at https://www.populationconnection.org/article/more-countries-want-more-babies-an-analysis/. A similar overview that is more focused on ethical issues related to the topic can be found at https://www.downtoearth.org.in/blog/health-in-africa/what-s-driving-africa-s-population-growth-and-what-can-change-it-67794

Several good videos can “hook” students into the topic. Be sure to preview them before showing them to your students. While “Do it for Denmark” (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrO3TfJc9Qw) and “Mentos National Night” (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jxU89x78ac) are not produced by governments, they do allow students to consider why governments have an interest in raising birth rates. An excellent video about demographic shifts and the newly instituted “third child policy” in China, with a clear connection to population policies, can be found at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3ROF9CstVY.

What’s where? Why is it there? Why do we care?

2.7 Population Policies, continued

Slides A and B can be used to interest students in the topic and to assess and connect to their prior knowledge. Give students FRQ practice when discussing Slide C (with suggested answers on Slide D).

Use slide E to assess student learning. Iran is a really good case study for how a country can change over time with respect to its population policies. Many resources using Iran as a case study can be found online. The poster comes from http://www.payvand.com/news/13/dec/1108.html. I included info from the graph in the question because some students might have trouble reading a projected graph, but students will need to do the reading themselves on the AP exam. Students need to be as specific and detailed as possible in their answers. In #1, if they said, “the doubling time has increased,” that’s correct, but it’s not the answer of someone who has demonstrated the depth of knowledge required to earn college credit. I always remind my students their answers need to prove how much they’ve learned in order to earn that college credit. “It increased” won’t do it. Excellent start...but what’s “it”? How is it calculated? So what was it at its peak, and what is it now? Even students who are reluctant to do math can divide 70 by 2, so a 2% NIR gives us a doubling time of 35 years. If they can remember this, they can do mental math to estimate other doubling times. suggested answers: 1) At a peak NIR of a little over 4% in the mid 1980s, Iran’s doubling time was just under 20 years. With a current NIR of 1.3%, it’s almost 54 years. (doubling time=70/NIR); 2) The poster, which reads, “more children, a happier life,” represents a pro-natalist population policy. In the years when Iran’s population would have doubled in less than a generation at a little over 4%, it’s likely the government had an anti-natalist stance. As women had fewer children and the NIR dropped dramatically, we can see from the poster than Iran began encouraging people to have larger families.

2.8 Women and Demographic Change

Introduce the topic using slide F. Use this article to help students understand the effect of education for females on fertility rates: https://www.prb.org/resources/the-effect-of-girls-education-on-health-outcomes-fact-sheet/Q1 from set 2 of the 2021 exam includes questions specifically related to 2.7 and 2.8. You can find the questions here https://apcentral.collegeboard.org/pdf/ap21-frq-human-geography-set-2.pdf and the scoring guidelines here https://apcentral.collegeboard.org/pdf/ap21-sg-human-geography-set-2.pdf.

2.8 Women and Demographic Change, continued

Slide G suggested answers: 1) Of the countries in the chart, Cote d’Ivoire and Kenya in Sub-Saharan Africa have the highest fertility rates (other answers are possible); 2) related to a great degree; the graph shows that in most countries, having more years of schooling is correlated with having fewer children (Our World in Data explores this relationship in detail) (encourage students to give specific examples from the graph)

2.9 Aging Populations

Whether because of their youth, their tendency to make the sweeping generalization that “the world is overpopulated,” or their difficulty understanding sophisticated economic concepts, students often have trouble understanding the implications of an aging population. Use slides H & I to introduce the topic and guide class discussion.

Here is an excellent article with visuals related to the topic: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/aging-global-population-problem/. The episode “Japan’s Population Problem” of the podcast Why it Matters by the Council on Foreign Relations provides an excellent text for a case study and can be found at https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/japans-population-problem. A third option is a BBC article about South Korea, found here: https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20191010-south-koreas-population-paradox. BBC’s website Population Paradox has several other videos and shorter case studies related to the impact of an aging population. Several pieces are connected to population policies, allowing you to teach or reteach 2.7 as you teach 2.9.

Slide J suggested answers: 1) increasing life expectancy due to advances in sanitation and health care, such as vaccinations and antibiotics; 2) reduction in global economic productivity due to fewer people in the workforce (other answers are possible)

COMING NEXT WEEK: IMPACTS & INTERACTIONS/TOPICS 2.10-12

SLIDE A 2.7 Population Policies

What do you know about China’s One Child Policy?

Why do you think the Chinese government shifted from the “One Child” Policy to the “Two Child” Policy in 2016 and the “Three Child” Policy in 2021?

SLIDE B 2.7 Population Policies

How can governments influence population?

How could a country’s stage in the demographic transition model influence the policies a government adopts to influence population?

SLIDE C 2.7 Population Policies

Determine whether the following would be considered pronatalist or antinatalist:

accessible, low cost or free education for femalesaffordable day care (typically publicly subsidized)bonuses given to people who have a babyparental leavepolicies encouraging businesses to offer flexible and/or part time work providing low cost or free contraception or sterilizationraising the minimum legal age for marriagetax incentives, such as credits or deductions, for having children

SLIDE D 2.7 Population Policies

pronatalist:affordable day care (typically publicly subsidized)bonuses given to people who have a babyparental leavepolicies encouraging businesses to offer flexible and/or part time work tax incentives, such as credits or deductions, for having children

antinatalist:accessible, low cost or free education for femalesproviding low cost or free contraception or sterilizationraising the minimum legal age for marriage

SLIDE E 2.7 Population Policies

1. The graph shows Iran’s natural increase rate between 1960-2019. Compare Iran’s doubling time at the NIR peak of a little over 4% in 1983 to its doubling time in 2015, when the population grew at about 1.3%.2. Explain why Iran’s population policy is likely to have shifted between 1960-2015.

SLIDE F 2.8 Women and Demographic Change

What types of things influence the number of children women have?

SLIDE G 2.8 Women and Demographic Change

1. Describe regional patterns in fertility rates according to data in the chart.

2. Explain the degree to which women’s educational attainment influences fertility rates.

SLIDE H 2.9 Aging Populations

Many developed countries developed systems in the middle of the 20th century to provide financial support (social security or pensions) to people in old age. How might this have affected birth rates?

As fertility declines and a population ages, how might the lack of younger people affect retirement and social security?

SLIDE I 2.9 Aging Populations

In which stage of the demographic transition are countries with older populations? Explain your answer.

SLIDE J 2.9 Aging Populations

1.

In 2018, the number of people in the world over the age of 64 was larger than the number of people under age 5 for the first time in history. For every 100 persons of working age in 2019, there were 53 persons who were younger or older than working age.

1. Explain a cause of a global aging population.

2. Explain an economic consequence of having an aging population.