Population ageing in ASEAN countries: trends and perspectives · Population ageing: a major...

Population ageing in

ASEAN countries:

trends and perspectivesSabine Henning, Ph.D.Chief, Sustainable Demographic Transition Section

Social Development Division

Expert Group Meeting on the

Proposed Regional Action Plan to

Implement The Kuala Lumpur Declaration on Ageing:

Empowering Older Persons in ASEAN

Bangkok, 29-30 April 2019

Older persons: many faces of one of the

major achievements of development

Population ageing:

a major achievement of development (total fertility and life expectancy at birth, Asia, 1950-2050)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Years

Life b

irth

s p

er

wom

an (

aged 1

5-4

9)

Total fertility (births per woman 15-49) Life expectancy at birth (years)

TFR

e(0)

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).

World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations,

Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).

15

20

20

25

25

26

45

45

45

53

65

69

73

85

115

Singapore (2000-2015)

Republic of Korea (2000-2020)

China (2005-2025)

Brazil (2010-2035)

Turkey (2010-2035)

Japan (1970-1996)

Poland (1966-2011)

Spain (1947-1992)

United Kingdom (1930-1975)

Hungary (1944-1994)

Canada (1944-2009)

United States (1944-2013)

Australia (1938-2011)

Sweden (1890-1975)

France (1865-1980)

Years

The speed of population ageing is rapid in

Asia-Pacific

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population

Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations, Department of Economic and

Social Affairs, Population Division (2017) and US Census Bureau (2009). An Ageing World: 2008.

number of years required

or expected for percent of

population aged 65 or over

to rise from 7 to 14 per cent

Total fertility in ASEAN has declined

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Tota

l fe

rtili

ty r

ate

(liv

e b

irth

per

wom

an,

15

-49 y

ears

)

Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Indonesia

Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar

Philippines Sigapore Thailand

Viet Nam ASEAN

Singapore

Lao People’s Democratic Republic




Life expectancy at birth in ASEAN

has increased

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Life e

xpecta

ncy a

t birth

(years

)

Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Indonesia

Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar

Philippines Singapore Thailand

Viet Nam ASEAN

Cambodia

Singapore




All countries

in ASEAN are ageing

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Pro

port

ion

of po

pu

lation

60

+

2015 2050



Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). China, Japan and the Republic of Korea

were added to show a comparison.

The older population

in ASEAN

is getting older

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Pro

port

ion

of po

pu

lation

80

+

2015 2050Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).


Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).China, Japan and the Republic of Korea

were added to show a comparison..

In ASEAN, older persons spend up

to 10 years with impairments

0 20 40 60 80

Myanmar

Lao PDR

Philippines

Indonesia

Cambodia

Malaysia

Thailand

Viet Nam

Brunei Darussalam

Singapore

Life expectancy at birth (2015-2020) Healthy life expectancy at birth (2016)

years



Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017); WHO, Global Health Observatory data

repository, http://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.HALEXv (accessed 28 April 2019).

http://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.HALEXv

From “ageing” to “aged” in ASEAN“ageing” - 7-14 per cent of the population 60+; “aged” - 14+ per cent of the population 60+




Percent of population 60 years or over by year

Ageing Aged

Brunei Darussalam

2019

9.0 2028 14.4

2050

28.7Cambodia 7.4 2044 14.6 16.9

Indonesia 9.2 2033 14.0 19.2Lao PDR 6.6 2046 14.0 16.1

Malaysia 10.4 2031 14.1 23.1

Myanmar 10.0 2033 14.0 18.5

Philippines 8.0 2050 14.2 14.2

Singapore 21.3 40.1

Thailand 18.4 35.1Viet Nam 12.0 2023 14.0 28.3

In ASEAN by 2100,

the number of young = older persons

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

19

50

19

65

19

80

19

95

20

10

20

25

20

40

20

55

20

70

20

85

21

00

Tota

l po

pu

lation, bo

th s

exes (

1,0

00)

0-24 25-64 65+

0-24 25-64 65+

0-24 25-64 65+




2015

2100

Per cent of

total population

Women comprise the majority of older

persons in ASEAN, 2019 (percentage of older men and women in

the total population by age group)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Viet Nam, 80+Viet Nam, 60+Thailand, 80+Thailand, 60+

Singapore, 80+Singapore, 60+

Philippines, 80+Philippines, 60+

Myanmar, 80+Myanmar, 60+Malaysia, 80+Malaysia, 60+Lao PDR, 80+Lao PDR, 60+

Indonesia, 80+Indoneisa, 60+Cambodia, 80+Cambodia, 60+

Brunei Darussalam, 80+Brunei Darussalam, 60+




• more likely to live alone

• less likely to have an

income, own property, have

a pension => higher rates of

poverty

• face problems accessing

services (health, education,

housing etc.) and decent

work

• more likely to be subject to

neglect, abuse and

discrimination

Older women are ….

Pension coverage remains low

in ASEAN, most recent data

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Covera

ge o

f m

andato

ry c

ontr

ibuto

ry p

ensio

ns

out

of

the w

ork

ing-a

ge p

opula

tion (

per

cent

of th

e w

ork

ing

-age

popula

tion)

Total Female

Source: United Nations Statistics Division, SDG indicators global database. Data are from Social

Security Inquiry, International Labour Organisation (ILO) (accessed 26 April 2019); only countries with available

data are shown.

Most older persons live with their

children in ASEAN (most recent data)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

sta

tuto

ry r

etire

ment age

Source: United Nations Statistics Division, SDG indicators global database. Data are from Social

Security Inquiry, International Labour Organisation (ILO) (accessed 26 April 2019); only countries with available

data are shown.

… but women are

more likely to live

alone than men

Governments in ASEAN are concerned

about the level of population ageing

Source: Source: United Nations, World Population Policies Database.

http://esa.un.org/poppolicy/about_database.aspx.(accessed 27 April 2019); only countries with available data

are shown.

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Brunei Darussalam NA NA Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor

Cambodia NA NA Minor Major Major Minor Minor Minor

Indonesia Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Major

Lao PDR NA Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor

Myanmar NA NA Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor

Philippines Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Major

Singapore Minor Major Major Major Major Major Major Major

Thailand Major Major Major Major Major Major Major Major

Viet Nam NA Minor Major Major Major Major Major Major

http://esa.un.org/poppolicy/about_database.aspx.(accessed

Governments in ASEAN have adopted some

measures to address population ageing,

2015

Raised the

minimum

retirement age

Raised social security

contributions of workers

Introduced or enhanced

non-contributory old-

age pensions

Promoted private

savings schemes

for retirement

Source: Source: United Nations, World Population Policies Database.

http://esa.un.org/poppolicy/about_database.aspx.(accessed 27 April 2019), only countries with available

data are shown.

http://esa.un.org/poppolicy/about_database.aspx.(accessed

• Supporting MIPAA review

• Population ageing an ICTs

• Capacity-building on

measuring population ageing

• Active ageing index

• Capacity-building on

pensions

• Research and analysis on

levels and trends in

population ageing

What ESCAP is doing …

Population ageing agenda is an

agenda for all generations

THANK YOU!

[email protected]

WWW.UNESCAP.ORG

UNESCAP

UNESCAP

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UNITEDNATIONSESCAP

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Population ageing in ASEAN countries: trends and perspectives · Population ageing: a major...

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