Polls and surveysNumbers generating news

Polls and surveysAre an art form, and a science.The design of how they are

conducted can lead to quite varied results.

In advertising/PR/news editorial, we use these:- As the basis for stories- To generate interest- To spark conversation

Polls and surveys, cont.Using polls:

- To generate buzz- To promote a product- To promote our firm

Generally, professional polling firms conduct polls used by news/PR/advertising organizations.

For example“Though voters twice before

have overwhelmingly rejected holding a constitutional convention, a plurality remains undecided on the issue, according to a new automated phone poll by Team TelCom Inc. for the Lansing public relations firm Rossman Group.” – Peter Luke, Mlive.com, Tuesday.

This pollCalled 400 likely Michigan voters.Poll taken on Oct. 4.43 percent were unsure if

Proposal 1, is a good idea or not.Of those who had made up their

minds, voters:- Were opposed to the idea by a 2-1 margin, 37.5 percent to 19.5 percent.

More – this pollOf those opposed to a

convention, 56 percent said the current constitution works well enough.

Twenty six percent said a convention would give too much power to special interests during the rewrite.

Eighteen percent said it would cost too much.

More – this poll, cont.A plurality of supporters for a

convention, 37 percent, said the Legislature is incapable of making the kind of change the state requires.

Thirty-six percent said Michigan's constitution should be stronger in reining in special interests.

Twenty-seven percent said the current document is outdated.

From the people who paid …"I expected the main reason for

people to oppose it would be because it was too expensive, but that's the least popular reason to oppose it. I'm kind of thinking it's dead in the water.“- Josh Hovey, the Rossman Group.

What did this poll accomplish for the Rossman Group?

Accuracy?It seems something based on

numbers should be beyond reproach.

But there are many factors that can skew results.

Quote, from a famous character: “Oh, people can come up with statistics to prove anything … 14 percent of people know that.”

Poll skepticismCan be skewed by several

factors:- Who paid for it? Why?- Where were people surveyed?- Were cell phones included?- Are any groups over- or undersampled?- How were the questions constructed? What were the questions?

Poll skepticism, cont. Were respondents “set up” in any

manner?- Ex. Were they read a description?

Does the polling firm have a well-known ideological slant? Identify the firm when reporting.

When was the poll taken? Any breaking news before or since then?

Margin of errorFor major polls, it’s important to

note the margin of error.More responses … less margin of

error.If difference is less than margin

of error, don’t say “statistical tie.”- Within margin of error, virtual tie, almost tied, etc.

Problems with pollsIs the pollster biased?Who was surveyed? Is that group

truly representative?Cell phone-only householdsHow were the questions worded?When was the poll conducted?

Day of the week, time of day …

“Fun” pollsNews outlets often conduct

informal polls to generate stories/discussions.

ESPN, local TV news site, etc.These polls have no statistical

value. Why? What value do they have?

PR/advertising. Company website polls. Do these have statistical value? Other value beyond numbers?

Increasing poll sophisticationNew communication tools, more

sophisticated polling approaches, new statistical analysis.

Traditional polls vs. micro-polls.New models of statistical

analysis.Very interesting results.

Micro polls, the new waveUsing robo-calls to collect small,

carefully selected samples.Six or eight simple questionsTarget specific, pre-identified

voters.- Ex. Likely Democratic voters

Aim for 100 to 200 answers, instead of 400.

Micro-polls, good and badCheaper to conduct.Can quickly assess whether a

candidate has a lead, by how much.

Eliminate some of the randomness. Wait … we want random, right?

On the issues?Sledgehammer vs. scalpel.

A recent exampleWay back in summer 2010 …

Andy Dillon and Virg Bernero compete for the MI Democratic gubernatorial nod

Traditional pollstersShow Michigan House Speaker

Andy Dillon with double-digit lead for much of the summer.

Many undecided in every poll. Often outnumber those who decided.

Bernero – internal poll, when respondents read a short bio of each candidate, his numbers surge

Shockwave!July 23 – Inside Michigan Politics

editor Bill Ballenger calls it for Benero.

At odds with every poll result yet.What’s he basing this on? Did his

hairpiece finally infiltrate his brain?

Based it on a micro poll with 50 responses. Fifty – 5-0. Wha?

The micro pollConducted by Mark Grebner,

Practical Political Consulting, Lansing.

 Of the 50, 31 support Bernero, 19 support Dillon.

Grebner - “Relatively small numbers of interviews can tell you a lot if you listen carefully.”

Grebner, July 29Predicts Bernero victory“I ran me a little robo-poll of

likely Dem primary voters, limited to the tri-county area, and this is what I found:  61 (Virg) to 36 (Andy) with 29 undecided.  (As always, those are raw responses, not percents.)  Small numbers, but statistically distinguishable from a tie.”

Grebner, July 29So, he’s basing his prediction on

126 total respondents.That total, coupled with his

professional background, led to:“My guess (not a direct

extrapolation from polling, but merely a guess) is 58%-to-42% (on Aug. 3).”

The resultDemocratic primary vote, Aug. 3,

2010Virg Bernero – 309,518 votesAndy Dillon – 219,304 votesTotal Dem voters – 528,822Bernero – 58.5 percentDillon – 41.5 percentGrebner poll – 126 voters.

Or .000238 percent of the total voters.

PollsTraditional polls – snapshot of

voters for general issues, general feeling.

Micro polls – targeted approach yields an answer to a very specific question.

Fun polls – generate discussion for communications organizations.

Polls, cont. Communications groups

commission them, but don’t really conduct them (other than the “fun” polls.)

Drive news stories/coverage.Create a story or buzz for PR and

advertising firms.Are an art form and a science.

Questions?