Political Ecology of Urban

Energy

Reading

• Sherry Olson’s chapter on Form and

Energy in the urban built environment

– On reserve in GRC

• My chapter draft on Toronto’s energy

history

– On website as .pdf

The City

• A place where most people live

– Habitation

• A place where most people earn a living

– Economy

• A place crucial to the human relationship

with the environment

– Resources are consumed, wastes generated

Energy

• The city is a crucial zone for energy

production and consumption

• Energy is essential to sustaining the city

as a living environment

– Vital to living arrangements, food production

• Energy vital to the urban economy

– Now increasingly industrialised

Energy

• In urban Canada, a huge proportion of the

fossil-fuel energy each person consumes

is in the food we eat

Energy

• Most energy systems create

environmental impact

– Combustion generates flue gases, ash

– Nuclear power has the risks of the radioactive

fuel cycle

– Need diesel fuel, concrete, steel to build

hydro dams, destroy rivers

– Must kill trees to burn wood

Energy

• Three emerging crises for conventional

energy use:

– Resource depletion is setting in for oil, natural

gas

– The issue of climate change suggests that

fossil-fuel combustion should be curbed

– Energy returns on energy invested [EROI]

deteriorating

Energy Return on Energy

Invested [EROI]• When an energy source is first exploited

small investments of energy bring big

yields of energy

• As an energy resource depletes, it takes

more energy inputs to get energy out

Energy Return on Energy Invested

• Fossil fuels still generating more return

than energy invested

– But the position is deteriorating

• Emerging (green) energy sources are

often not very energy efficient

Energy Cliff

• The prediction that energy returns on

energy invested may deteriorate faster

than new, efficient sources can be found

Resource Depletion

• Follows a curve

• Development of the resource improves

access, reduces prices at first

– While depleting the easily-accessible highest

quality portions of the resource

• As the resource depletes, prices go up,

access deteriorates

– Quality of supply degrades

– EROI degrades

The Hubbert Peak

• M King Hubbert (1903-1989) US

petroleum geologist with Shell, US

Geological Survey

• In the 1956 predicted that US oil

production would peak in 1970

– And that global production would peak around

2000

– Caused an uproar

Hubbert

• Some people ridiculed his prediction of

peak oil in US in 1970

• But others paid attention:

– The leadership of Ontario Hydro in 1956,

opted for massive coal-fired power stations,

not oil or gas because of Hubbert

Peak Oil

• US government issuing strategic planning

documents which assume peak oil

• The leadership of most major oil

companies accept ‘peak oil’ but differ on

timing

• American Association of Petroleum

Geologists consensus is for global peak oil

within 5 years

Degrading Resource Quality

• OPEC’s August 2005 Monthly Oil Market

Report p. 3:

– Year 2000 53% of crude oil was light, sweet

– Year 2004 49% of crude oil was light, sweet

– Although total output increased, the quality is

declining

Natural Gas

• Conventional Natural Gas production has peaked– N America peaked in 2001

– Western Europe peaked 2004

– US, Canada, Mexico have proven conventional reserves sufficient for only 7-9 years consumption

• BP/Amoco estimates that at 1998 consumption rates all the conventional natural gas will be gone by 2060

• Natural gas is difficult to transport long-distance and in volume– No global-sourcing solutions available

Natural Gas

• Gas fracking techniques allow shale gas

production

– Tapping into vast reserves

• US, Canada become major gas producers

again

• But fracking controversial

– May damage groundwater supplies

– Many jurisdictions ban fracking

The Fracking Boom

• Fracking technology allows production of tight oil and gas, revives old fields

• Recently booming in N America

– N America rivalling Saudi Arabia for oil and gas

• But fracking boom will be short

– Peak production c 2019

Recent Oil Price Collapse

• Saudis tried to kill off the US fracking

industry to grab/retain market share

• Boosted oil production to drop the global

price

• Idled the Alberta oilsands

• Saudis get 1% more market share

• US fracking becomes more cost-efficient

• Normality will shortly resume

Recent Oil Price Collapse

• Iran has resumed oil exports

Peak Oil

• There is now widespread consensus in the

oil industry that we are at, or close to the

global peak of oil production

• The high-quality, easily-accessible oil is

gone or going fast

– The days of cheap oil are over

• Global oil production entering an

irreversible decline

Why this matters

• The global economy, the modern industrial

city, modern agriculture depend on cheap

petroleum (and electricity)

– For energy

– For chemicals

– Most plastics, agricultural chemicals depend

on Natural Gas

Oil Dependence

• Oil accounts for

– 43% of global fuel consumption

– 95% of transportation fuel

Oil and Food

• For every joule of food energy produced in

US

– 10 joules of fossil fuel are consumed in the

farming, transportation and processing

– 31% goes on making the fertiliser

– 35% on operating farm machinery,

transportation

• Eat a salad in a Toronto winter

– The ingredients have travelled 3000 miles

Why this matters

• Our entire way of life depends on cheap

energy

• The North American suburb depends on

cheap petroleum, electricity

• The modern diet depends on cheap

petroleum

• The days of cheap petroleum are rapidly

coming to an end

Why this matters

• Growth of energy consumption has

accompanied the growth of the industrial

economy

• Conventional fossil-fuel based energy is

reaching the limits of growth

– And will probably decline

Why this matters

• Without energy to power the industrial

economy

– We will find it difficult to sustain 7.6 billion

people

– Future economic growth may not be possible

• Deployment of alternative energy systems

will take time, and resources

– We are short on both

Climate Change

• A consequence of the combustion-based

energy systems of the industrial era

• Fossil fuels burned to release CO2 and

other greenhouse gases

• Big increases in C02 this year not coming

from fuel combustion

• Greenhouse effect will warm the planet

– Disrupting climate zones, agriculture

Climate Change

• Naturally-occurring cycles of climate

change played an important role in

disrupting historic civilizations

– The classic Maya

– The Harrapan civilization (Indus valley)

– The Roman Empire

• We can expect serious trouble

– And the lives of billions are at stake

Toronto c. 1840

• Depended on firewood extracted from the

region’s forests

– Arriving via wagon, sled, schooner

• Extracted faster than it could be replaced

– Decimated the regions forests by 1855

– EROI declining by 1840s

Toronto c. 1875

• Depending on coal from Pennsylvania &

Ohio

– Via schooner, rail

• Poor folk, brick-makers burn wood

Toronto c. 1900

• Depends on coal from PA & OH

• Industry has mostly switched to cheap,

soft bituminous coal

– Very polluting

Toronto c. 1925

• Still depends on PA & OH coal

• Rising use of Hydro, petroleum

– Heavy particulate & VOC air pollution

Toronto c. 1965

• Huge use of coal in power production

• Huge increases in hydro, petroleum

consumption

• Low-density suburban sprawl in progress

Combustion History of Toronto

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

000

ton

nes

Coal 000T

Wood 000TCE

Hydro 000TCE

Oil 000TCE

Incin 000T

Toronto CO2 emissions 000 tonnes

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960

Coal LEC

Coal HEC

Wood

Oil

Incineration

Gasoline

gas

Combined

Toronto CO2 tonnes per capita

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960

Coal LEC

Coal HEC

Wood

Oil

Incineration

Gasoline

gas

Comb/pc

Toronto 000 tonnes bottom ash generated

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970

Coal LEC 0 0

Coal HEC 0 0

Wood 0.03 0.056

Incineration 0 0

Toronto 000T particulates

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960

Coal LEC

Coal HEC

Wood

Oil

Incineration

Gasoline

Combined

Toronto SOX Emissions '000 tonnes

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960

Coal LEC

Coal HEC

Wood

Oil

Incineration

Gasoline

Comb

Toronto NOX emissions 000 tonnes

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960

Coal LEC

Coal HEC

Wood

Oil

Incineration

Gasoline

Nat gas

Comb

Toronto Combustion Emissions 000 tonnes

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960

100kt CO2

TPM

SOX

NOX

Sherry Olson

• Tries to connect the urban built form to

energy consumption/waste production

• Cities have a succession of built forms

• Each of which has characteristic forms of

environmental impact, energy use

– Victorian grid-pattern

– Downtown high-rise

– Suburban sprawl

Sherry Olson

• The old, dense industrial urban cores

generated adverse environmental

conditions

– Smoke, noise, smells, heat, dust, congestion,

polluted water and land

• Middle and upper classes wanted to

escape to the suburbs

– And did

Sherry Olson

• From early C20th streetcars and autos

allow low-density suburban sprawl

• Efficient transit systems allow downtown

high-rise

– Workers commute via transit lines, elevators

• Urban centres become dependent on

cheap energy

– Especially oil and electricity

The Rise of the Automobile in

Toronto

Toronto Auto Registrations

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980

The Rise of the Automobile

• The first auto-oriented Toronto suburbs

created for the wealthy by 1910

• Toronto’s middle class motorises in 1920s

• After 1945

– Most people are motorised

– Major shifts of industry to the suburbs

– Auto-dependent suburban sprawl follows

Toronto’s contribution to climate

change

• Toronto before 1850 (firewood)

– Each person emits 2 tonnes of CO2 per year

• Toronto circa 1920 (coal)

– 10 tonnes CO2/person/year

• Toronto circa 1960 (coal & oil, booming

suburbs)

– 25 tonnes CO2/person/year

Toronto’s Energy History

• Urban metabolism/Ecological footprint

change over time

• Onset of petroleum-dependent mass-

consuming suburban sprawl seriously

deepens the impacts

– Subsidised by cheap oil, cheap hydro

– Dramatically increasing greenhouse gas

emissions (CO2)

Political Ecology of Urban Energy

• Urban energy use is implicated in some of

the major global environmental problems

of our time

• We have committed ourselves to urban

living and economic arrangements which

have a doubtful future

Political Ecology of Urban Energy

• Insoluble environmental stress and

change played a role in the demise of

some great classical civilizations

• The collapse of our own civilization may

not be so very far away

• Our current way of life (perhaps especially

in the suburbs) is deeply problematic

But there is some hope:

• Global renewable electricity generation

capacity now exceeds coal generation

• Peak global oil demand predicted circa

2030

• US coal consumption peaked 10 years

ago, now below petroleum