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Transcript of Policy Uses of National Environment Outlook Information: Perspectives from the Caribbean Laszlo...
L. Pinter 1
Policy Uses of National Environment Outlook Information: Perspectives from the Caribbean
Laszlo Pinter, PhDNRC FLIS Annual Meeting
Ljubljana, SloveniaFebruary 16-17, 2012
L. Pinter 4
L. Pinter 5
#1 Clarify Focal MEAs, Status and
Linkages with Development
Priorities
#2 Identify Synergies Among
Focal MEAs
#3 Articulate Desired Future
Outcomes
#4 Identify Portfolio of MEA
Policies for Achieving
Future Outcomes
MEA Outcome Planning
#6 Prepare MEA Policy Planning
Brief
IMPLEMENTATION AND REPORTING
#5 Assess Risks and
Opportunities and Improve and Adapt as
Necessary
STEP 1
Demonstrating the Relevance of MEAs to National and Sector Priorities Using Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) Tools
National or Sectoral
Development Priority
HumanWellbeing Aspects
(from MA list)
RelevantEcosystem
Services(from MA List)
State ofEnvironment
Aspect of MEA
MEADevelopment
Priority
Tool #1Priorities Mapping
Using ecosystem services / human wellbeing linkages from the IEA toolkit to map the connections between MEA commitments and national and sectoral priorities
National or Sectoral Development
Priority
Human Wellbeing Aspects
(from MA list)
Flourishing Tourism Sector
Livelihoods
Opportunity to express and observe cultural and spiritual values associated with ecosystems
Relevant Ecosystem Services
(from MA List)
State of Environment Aspect
of the LBS
Food (fish) Quality of Coastal Environment (control, prevent and reduce pollution of marine coastal environment)
Genetic resources
Ornamental resources
Storm protection
Recreation and tourism
Education
STEP 2
Identifying Synergies Among MEAs Using IEA Tools
Tool #2MEA Synergy Mapping
Using ecosystem services / human wellbeing linkages from the IEA toolkit to map the connections between MEA commitments, national and sectoral priorities
MEA Synergies Worksheet
States, Pressures and Drivers MEA Commitments Key Synergies
MEA #1 MEA #2
States of the EnvironmentList the state(s) of the environment that the MEA is addressing, along with specific commitments cited
PressuresList the direct pressures on the state(s) of the environment identified above. For each pressure list specific commitments in the MEA
DriversList the high-level drivers of change influencing the direct pressures identified above, along with any specific commitments cited
ImpactsArticulate the primary impacts associated with changes in the environmental state(s). Use the ecosystem services and human wellbeing categories to assist with this analysis.
MEA Synergies Worksheet - EXAMPLE
States, Pressures and Drivers
MEA Goals and Targets Corresponding to Environmental States, Pressures and Drivers Key Synergies
MEA #1United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change
MEA #2United NationsConvention on
Combating Desertification
States of the EnvironmentList the state(s) of the environment that the MEA is addressing, along with specific targets cited
Atmosphere• Climate Change
Soil• Desertification
• Climate change intensifies drought intensifying desertification
PressuresList the direct pressures on the state(s) of the environment identified above. For each pressure list specific targets cited in the MEA and identify line departments having an influence.
• Rising CO2 from energy use• CO2 emissions from land-use changes
• Land-use intensification• Water shortages
• Application of fertilizers• Land use changes increase atmospheric CO2
STEP 3
Envisioning Desired Future MEA Outcomes
Not thinking about the future is detrimental to strategy………….
Backcasting Where do we want to go? How do we get there? Where do we want not to go? How do we avoid getting there?
Creating the desired future outcomes
Desired future outcomes expressed as indicators
and targets (qualitative and quantitative) relevant for
the area/country
Present Future
How can we achieve the desired future goals and outcomes?
- Some of our current policies and actions could get us there
- New policies could be needed to get us to the desired future
- Need to account for long-term trends and surprises
Desired future goals based on the MEAS
Envisioning desired future MEA outcomes
Desired future outcomes • Decrease monoculture
forestry by 30%• Maintain high and stable
timber supply (mil m3 of wood)
• Achieve at least 80% of current economic returns from forest sector
Present Future
How can we achieve the desired future outcomes?
- Current economic diversification policy could be used to explore new types of products (from different species)
- Revising species and planting guidelines to include native tree species
- Setting quotas for species composition
- Estimate how the revenues are sensitive to changes in wood prices and new construction demands (what if questions)
MEA Challenge Scenario Worksheet
States, Pressures and Drivers
MEA Commitments Key Synergies Indicators and Targets
MEA #1 MEA #2
States of the EnvironmentList the state(s) of the environment that the MEA is addressing, along with specific commitments cited
PressuresList the direct pressures on the state(s) of the environment identified above. For each pressure list specific commitments in the MEA
DriversList the high-level drivers of change influencing the direct pressures identified above, along with any specific commitments cited
STEP 4
IDENTIFYING A PORTFOLIO OF MEA POLICIES FOR ACHIEVING DESIRED FUTURE OUTCOMES
Sustainablefuture = ?
current reality
time
Backcasting... (i.e. ”what do we want?”)
Strategies and actions = ?
(What are some basics?)
University of Delft, 2008
Creating the desired future outcomes
Desired future outcomes expressed as indicators
(qualitative and quantitative) relevant for
the area/country
Present Future
How can we achieve the desired future goals and outcomes?
- Some of our current policies and actions could get us there
- Need to account for long-term trends and surprises
- New policies could be adopted to get us to the desired future
Desired future goals based on the MEAS
Completed
Completed
Current focus
STATE and TRENDSE.g. water
IMPACTS Aspects of human well-being
PRESSURES
Anthropogenic and natural
Sectors
Human influences
Natural processes
DRIVERS
Indirect influence through human development
MEA Policy Map
Policy 3
Policy 4
Policy 5 Policy 6
Policy 8
Policy 7
Policy 1 Policy 2
Tool #4Policy Mapping
• Using the Driving Forces- - Pressure – State – Impact – Response analysis framework to map existing policies from a systems perspective
STATE and TRENDSRiver Water Quality
IMPACTS Nutrition and hydrationLivelihoodsRecreational and Cultural enjoyment
PRESSURES
Sewage Discharge
Sectors
Human influences
Natural processes
DRIVERS
Urban Growth
Decreased fish catchesLess drinking water
MEA Policy Map
Infrastructure expenditures
Sewer charges
Water quality standards
In-situ treatment
Food imports
Water imports
Job creation
incentives
Spatial development regulations
Creating a Policy Map – Example
Policy Analysis Questions
• Is the current portfolio of policies directed at the MEA sufficient to achieve the desired long-term outcome target?
• What are the leverage points (D, P, S, I) and are effective policies being directed at these leverage points?
• Is a mix of instruments being used (economic, regulatory, expenditure, institutional)?
STEP 5
ASSESSING RISKS, OPPORTUNITIES AND ADAPTATIONS
Policy Stress Testing
• To identify key policy performance risks and uncertainties that could prevent achievement of MEA outcomes
• To identify key opportunities• To improve and adapt the portfolio of policies
as necessary to ensure maintain progress toward MEA outcomes
Policy Stress Testing
• Idea of policy stress testing is to identify key factors that impact on policy performance
• Then examine policy performance under plausible future conditions that consider the most important and uncertain factors
• Can use existing scenario information to do this
GEO LAC 3 Scenarios:
GEO LAC 3 Scenarios
34
Relegated Sustainability Sustainability Reforms
Unsustainability and Increased Conflicts
Transition to Sustainability
GEO 4 Scenarios
Policy Stress Test
• Considering each of the GEO LAC 3 scenarios, address the following questions:
– Risks: Is achievement of desired MEA target(s) at risk given the plausible future conditions outlined in the scenario? If so, what factors are likely to have the most impact, and how? What adaptations for the portfolio of MEA policies are necessary to mitigate against the potential risks?
– Opportunities: What opportunities does the scenario present for achieving desired MEA target(s) that have not yet been considered? What actions are necessary for the portfolio of MEA policies to be able to leverage the opportunities that may present themselves in the future?
SESSION 6
PREPARING THE MEA POLICY PLANNING BRIEF
MEA Policy Brief Template
1. Key MEA commitments and their relevance to national development priorities: ...[summarize results from Tool #1 MEA Priorities Mapping]…
2. MEA Synergies and Important Stakeholders within and outside of government:… [summarize the results of Tool #2 MEA Synergies Mapping]…
3. Possible future MEA outcome targets: …[summarize the results of Tool #3 MEA Policy Mapping]…
4. Existing MEA Policy Inventory and Recommendations:…[summarize the results of Tool #4
5. Risks and Opportunities for Achieving MEA Outcomes: ….[summarize the results of Tool #5 Policy Stress Testing]…
Further information:
http://www.unep.org/ieacp/files/pdf/mea/IEA_Training_Module_MEAs.pdfhttp://www.iisd.org/pdf/2011/iea_brochure.pdf