1. CEE POWERMARKETSEnergy Trading Week CEE 2012Lszl Siller, Transenergo2012.04.16. Picture: Cofface CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, Lszl Siller, Transenergo

2. OWERVIEW1. Characteristics of supply and demand in CEE 72. Generation mix development3. Givers and takers of electricity4. Impact on western countries 2ISO 3166 code Picture: MS Clipart 3. FOCUS ON DE - Germany AT - AustriaCEE Region (CEE 7)1. BL Bulgaria2. CZ Czech Republic3. HU Hungary4. PL Poland5. RO Romania6. RS Republic of Serbia7. SK Slovak Republic ISO 3166 codeDATASETENTSOEs monthly aggregated valuesin GWhhttps://www.entsoe.eu/3 Picture: MS Clipart 4. DEMAND 2008 -2012 PL is the largestconsumer and hasthe largestseasonality with CZ Hungary andSlovakia has the[GWh]lowest seasonality The region is half ofDE and AT combinedDE + AT[GWh]CEE 7 Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis The regional consumption is half of Germany and Austria combined 4CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, Lszl Siller, Transenergo 5. EX-IM BALANCE 2008 -2012 HU net importer CZ and BG netexporterIMPORT[GWh] CZ has highEXPORTseasonal volatility(DE CZ border500 MW) RO exporterbut, dependenceon hydro Record values inprevious quartersSource: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysisRecord values in previous quarters5 CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, Lszl Siller, Transenergo 6. PRODUCTION MIX BY COUNTRY Monthly aggregated UPSIDE PLOTSproduction in GWH Monthly aggregatedDOWNSIDE PLOTS production in % of consumption of the same period6 CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, Lszl Siller, Transenergo 7. PRODUCTION MIX 2008 -2012 CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, Lszl Siller, TransenergoBULGARIA[GWh] Big jump in export in2010 caused by lessconsumptionSIGNIFICANT HYDROPRODUCTION7Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysisFlag: MS Clipart 8. PRODUCTION MIX 2008 -2012 Czech Republic CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, Lszl Siller, TransenergoCZECH REPUBLIC[GWh] Growing export trendcomes from growingproduction Czech Republic8Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysisFlag: MS Clipart 9. PRODUCTION MIX 2008 -2012 CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, Lszl Siller, TransenergoHUNGARY[GWh] Consumption growth> production growth9Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysisFlag: MS Clipart 10. PRODUCTION MIX 2008 -2012 CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, Lszl Siller, TransenergoPOLAND[GWh] Almost pure fossil Future carbon price isa huge risk for theproduction, but newoffshore winddevelopments lowerthat risk10Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysisFlag: MS Clipart 11. PRODUCTION MIX 2008 -2012 CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, Lszl Siller, TransenergoROMANIA[GWh] Renewables still ingrowing trend, weatheris becoming anincreasingly importantfactorSIGNIFICANT HYDROPRODUCTION11Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysisFlag: MS Clipart 12. PRODUCTION MIX 2008 -2012 CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, Lszl Siller, TransenergoREPUBLIC OF SERBIA[GWh] Fossil vs. Hydro spreadopens from 30% to 70%SIGNIFICANT HYDROPRODUCTION12Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysisFlag: MS Clipart 13. PRODUCTION MIX 2008 -2012 Slovak Republic CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, Lszl Siller, Transenergo SLOVAK REPUBLIC[GWh] Importer in 2011 Since 2011 Q3 SK HU cross border liquidity not Slovak Republic enough to keep spread down SIGNIFICANTHYDRO PRODUCTION 13 Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysisFlag: MS Clipart 14. MARKET COUPLING Markets becoming more and more integrated Small differences between countries , Germany andAustria, Slovakia and Czech Republic Extreme weather condition have less effect Very flexible East, West, South physical flows14 CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, Lszl Siller, Transenergo 15. CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, Lszl Siller, TransenergoCOMPARISON OF PRODUCTION 2008 -2012 CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, Lszl Siller, TransenergoGERMANY, AUSTRIA Downwardstrend[GWh]CEE 7March 2009.March 2011. Significantlygrowingproduction withless hydroSource: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis 16. COMPARISON OF IM-EX BALANCE 2008 -2012 CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, Lszl Siller, TransenergoMarch 2011.GERMANY, AUSTRIA Germany andAustriacombined[GWh]March 2009.becomeimporterCEE 7 Still exporter 16Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis 17. COMPARISON OF CONSUMPTIONS 2008 -2012 CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, Lszl Siller, TransenergoGERMANY, AUSTRIA Slow downwardstrend[GWh]CEE 7 Consumptiongrowth is lowerthan productiongrowth Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis 18. GERMAN SUPLY DEMAND ANALISYS with monthly aggregated production and consumption data in GWh 1. TOTAL PRODUCTION 2. TOTAL WIND3. TOTAL WIND SOLAR EXPORTEXPORT EXPORTPRODUCTION PRODUCTION PRODUCTION IMPORT IMPORT IMPORTCONSUMPTION CONSUMPTION CONSUMPTION 18 CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, Lszl Siller, Transenergo 19. GERMANY AND AUSTRIA BALANCE 2008 -2012 (monthly data) Germany and Austria combined, supply and demand [GWh] EXPORT WIND 2011.02 [GWh] EXPORTEXPORT 5316 GWh[GWh] SOLAR 2011.02 6824 GWhIMPORTIMPORT IMPORT[GWh] [GWh][GWh] Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, Lszl Siller, TransenergoRenewables strongly contribute to export. 19 20. SUMMARY CEE Region significant export to Germany The export is stable despite less hydro production German import from CEE opens avenues for furtherpower plant developments CEE import from west is weather driven and priceindependent CEE fuel mix foreshadows opportunity for long termnuclear developments 20 CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, Lszl Siller, Transenergo 21. Q&ATHANK YOUFOR YOUR ATTENTIONlaszlo.siller@transenergo.hu(+3620) 576 36 78Linkedin: Lszl Siller 21Picture: MS Clipart CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, Lszl Siller, Transenergo