+ Police Training Bassem Bouguerra Tunisian Institutional Reform.
Policy Foresight on the Institutional Reform of Civil ... · PDF filePolicy Foresight on the...
Transcript of Policy Foresight on the Institutional Reform of Civil ... · PDF filePolicy Foresight on the...
Policy Foresight on the Institutional Reform of Civil Service Training
for Taiwan's High-Rank Officials*
José Chiu-C. Chen, Min-Hsiu Chiang**
Abstract
Taiwan government has paid much attention to the institutional reform of civil
service training for Taiwan's high-rank officials, which is also a critical research issue
in the filed of public human resources management. The major problems of
Taiwan’s high-rank officials training system are “the dual personnel systems in central
government, disputes on bureaucrat’s core competences, upcoming high retirement
rates among the high-rank civil servants,” and others. To solve these problems, the
Government has been considering some strategies, including “the establishment of
Senior Civil Service System, the expansion of talent sources, the improvements on
examination and selection methods, the initiative of talent exchange program, and the
provision of core competency checklist.”
In order to provide an intensive and extensive base for decision-making on the
reform of civil service training systems for Taiwan's high-rank officials, we have first
studied a wide range of international cases and made a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses,
opportunities and threats) analysis on Taiwan's current civil service training system
and then designed a Delphi questionnaire, which was used to seek the consensus from
18 experts on issues, such as the required core competencies for the high-rank civil
servants, division of training responsibilities, talent exchange system, career mapping,
training and promotion mechanism. Three experts were then chosen from the 18
specialists and invited to partake in the Scenario Seminar, from which two (2) sets of
10-year foresight-planning scenarios on how to reform the civil service training
system for Taiwan's high-rank officials have been drafted and proposed.
Keyword: Civil Service Reform, High-Rank Officials, Policy Foresight, Scenario
Writing
* This research paper is an adaptation from the commissioned research project, which is titled as “A
Foresight Study on Civil Service Training Reform for Taiwan’s High-Rank Officials”, the
commissioned time period was July 2009 to December 2010. This research paper only represents the
opinions of the researcher. **
The authors’ position and affiliation, in order, are Assistant Professor / Dept. of Public Management
and Policy at Tunghai University, Taiwan; Professor / Dept. of Public Administration at National
Chengchi University, Taiwan. José Chiu-C. Chen is corresponding author ([email protected]; P.O.
Box 363 Tunghai University, Taichung, Taiwan 40704).
- 1 -
A. Introduction
In this fast-changing world, the Government departments have to adapt, and
respond to many opportunities and challenges, which may cause many complex and
wicked public-affair issues, prompting the operation of a civil service system to
reform from traditional type to a new spirit of services. In addition, the “clients” to
whom the Government departments provide service have also shifted from
“simplicity” to diversity. In addition, the expectations of the general public to the
authority for civil servants and the core competence of the public personnel have had
a lot of changes. Overall, the trend has been moving towards "cross-sector
governance". How should the civil service system respond, facing such a changing
wave? Which level should start to respond? As a response to those findings, some
commentators have summed up the characteristics of senior civil service systems in
five countries, including Japan, Germany, Britain, France, and the United States and
divided them into three modes, namely, a closed multi-track mode, open multi-track
mode, and open competition model (Peng, 1998) and stressed that any type of mode
needs long-term training.
Following the UK, USA, Singapore, and South Korea, Taiwan set up the
National Academy of Civil Service (NACS) in 2010, which puts special emphasis on
the training and lifelong learning and international exchange for high-ranking civil
servants. Looking ahead, it is very essential to align the high-ranking civil servants’
training system with the expectations of citizens internally and respond to the global
trends of competition in public services externally. Thus, the strategic focus for the
high-ranking civil servants’ training system should be put on upgrading their
capabilities in decision making, leadership, and management by setting up
foresight-thinking training policy and fulfilling the vision of overall service by the
Government.
To clarify the current status of training system for high-ranking civil servants in
Taiwan, major challenges, and coping strategies, we have first reviewed a wide range
of relevant literatures to explore the current status and challenges of Taiwan’s
high-ranking civil servants’ training system. Secondly, we have conducted in-depth
interviews among various experts to get their insights on the status, issues, strategies,
and development for the high-ranking civil servants training in order to generate the
framework and draft of a Delphi questionnaire, which has then gone through some
pre-tests and necessary adjustments and turned into the official version. Some further
tests have also been conducted on the finalized questionnaire before its release.
Finally, based on the foresight study approach and the results from two rounds of
Delphi questionnaire survey, we have held scenario-planning and scenario-writing
seminar, in which experts have been invited to discuss and reach consensus on the
- 2 -
factors that may affect the training system for high-ranking civil servants in the next
10 years. Those factors have then been classified and used to form two axes and to
develop four possible scenarios, from which two have been chosen for in-depth
analysis to explore the relationships between the contents and the affecting factors in
terms of intensity and direction. After all these efforts, we have then officially
proposed two sets of scenarios. The research and results that we have already done
will be described in the following.
B. Analysis of relevant theories and practical research results
(A) Taiwan's experience in the implementation of foresight study and analysis
Foresight is the most widely used concept in "Futurology". It is defined as a
systematic and long-term in-depth study on the scientific, technical, economic,
environmental, and social processes. Its objectives must be clearly defined and
conducted by way of strategic research and emerging technologies so as to produce
the largest output value for the economic and social interests. The application of
foresight studies are mainly related to science and technology foresight and policy
foresight. To distinguish the science and technology foresight from policy foresight,
researchers have analyzed them in terms of "thinking base, target vision, field
properties, participating members, and focus points" and found that policy foresight is
mainly applied to social and economic issues. Its core goal is to formulate public
policies and actions through consensus among participants from various fields
(Chiang and Chen, 2010: 8). Currently, Policy foresight has been widely used in such
policy issues as science and technology, education, industry, national land planning,
energy, urban and rural areas, trade, relations between two sides of the Taiwan Straits,
agriculture, environmental protection and others.
Foresight is different from forecast in that forecast is to speculate the occurrence
of future incidence and its probability, based on past experience, patterns, and
behavior. Foresight is to plan for the future, so that it would move towards "desired
future state" and away from the "undesired future state", based on change and
creativity. In short, foresight is to set up multiple possibilities for the future and make
a choice today that may affect the future; it is not only a "forecast" of the future but
also a choice among many possibilities and an attempt to "shape" and even "create"
the future (Foresight Committee, 2010: 5).
Japan is the first country to propose the foresight theory, while RAND
Corporation of the United States is most well known for advancing foresight
techniques. Japan has begun to use the foresight technology since the 1970s and has
today entered into the ninth round of foresight research methods. Subsequently,
Germany, South Korea, and some European countries have gradually got involved in
the foresight study. Japan has found in its current study of policy foresight that several
- 3 -
problems require attention: First, the objective should be clearly defined; second, the
classification of applied researches should be correct; third, the principles should be
integrated; fourth, the roles of players should be coordinated; fifth, any innovative
model should be directly developed (Chiang and Chen, 2010: 8, 9). Researchers have
analyzed the foresight methods adopted in different countries and found that "Delphi
method" or "Scenario Analysis" is most widely used. In addition, the analysis of
foresight research process has led us to find that the content is mainly to set up
research agenda, choose the focus issue, carry out the Delphi study, establish scenario
and write the script, conduct expert meetings, and specify policy vision. (Chou, 2009;
Chiang and Chen, 2010).
As shown in Table 1, different Government departments in Taiwan have had
different purposes in promoting foresight study, which has evolved in different stages
from the social and economic development, to automation foresight development, to
the future of industrial research, and to the consensus building. Nevertheless, there is
one thing in common, that is, all of them have made considerable contributions to the
formulation of innovative research strategies for Taiwan's future policies. In terms of
study methods at different times, we can also see similar research strategy methods,
including the Delphi method, scenario analysis and planning, and expert discussion.
Results of these studies have been eventually integrated to form more innovative and
forward-looking conclusions for reference to policy makers in the future.
Table 1: Foresight experience in different Government departments in Taiwan
Science and
Technology
Advisory Group
National Science Council Ministry of Economic
Affairs Council of Agriculture
Program Name
(Year)
A Study of the
Pre-Design for
Science and
Technology
foresight
Mechanism in
Taiwan
(2005)
1. Automation
Technology's foresight
Forecast Program
(2003)
2. Academic Mileage and
Technology foresight
Program in Taiwan
(2007)
3. A Research on and
Recommendations for
Long-term Science and
Technology foresight
Policy in Taiwan (2009)
1. A pre-study on
Industrial
Development and
Technology
Integration in
2015
2. An Industrial
Technology
foresight
Research Project
in Taiwan (2009)
1. Agricultural
Science and
Technology
foresight Planning
2. A Plan to Establish
Agricultural
Science and
Technology
foresight System
(2009)
Implementation
Units
TIER
IEK
STPI
1. STPI
2. Academia Sinica
3. STPI, Taiwan
University, Tsinghua
University
IEK 1. STPI
2. TIER
Program
Objective
Taiwan’s
socio-economic
development in
2020
1. Selecting Focus Points
and Setting
Development Direction
for Automation in
Taiwan
1. Taiwan Industry
in 2015
2. Taiwan Industry
in 2020
Building up
Consensus in
Technology
Development and
Promoting
- 4 -
2. Technological
Development in 2025
3. Strengthening the Link
between foresight and
Policy
Reformation of
Agricultural
Methods of
Implementation
Collaborative
learning
Brainstorming among
Experts, Modeling and
data collection
Expert interviews,
scenario analysis
Delphi
Program Features
Setting up the
mechanism
design process
Selection of areas for
foresight study,
mechanism design process,
consensus cohesion in
depth and breadth
Future scenarios for
industries
Tools for Integration
and analysis,
systematic
background
information
Source: Chou, 2009: 51
After synthesizing the results of previous studies, we have decided to set up for
this article the following process for our own foresight study (see Figure 1), which
focuses mainly on the research topic, expert options on future policy options,
communication and coordination, and promotion of consensus on foresight.
Figure 1: process of foresight study
(B) Analysis of current situation of the high-ranking civil servants’ training system in
Taiwan
There is no separate personnel system for high-level civil servants in Taiwan and
Analysis of the trends for high-ranking civil servants’ training
in Taiwan and abroad
Team deliberation on the dimensions of institutional reform for future
high-ranking civil servants’ training system in Taiwan
Design of Delphi questionnaire for institutional reform for high-ranking civil
servants’ training system
Delphi Survey: Two rounds of Survey and Analysis
Scenario Seminar: to establish context and
script writing
Integration, analysis - conclusions and
recommendations of the script
- 5 -
nor is there a clear-cut definition for high-ranking civil servants. In general, senior
rank officials of grade 12 and above are considered as high-ranking civil servants. In
accordance with the existing Basic Code Governing Central and Local Administrative
Agencies, the majority of positions at or above senior rank of grade 12 are distributed
in the central government. According to the Public Service Employment Act, officials
at or above grade 12 of senior rank position must have the knowledge and
administrative or professional experience to (1) carry out their duties independently;
(2) oversees the overall business of the provincial and municipal agencies or units; (3 )
assist his or her direct supervisors in dealing with very arduous tasks; (4) handle
difficult technical or professional tasks and get involved in planning, designing,
operating, researching or reviewing those projects of great significance to the country,
especially those related creativity and invention; (5) deal with other businesses of
equivalent responsibilities.
There are at least two organizations in Taiwan, which are involved in training
high-ranking civil servants. The first one is the National Academy of Civil Service
(NACS), under the supervision of Civil Service Protection and Training Commission
(CSPTC) of the Examination Yuan, while the other is Civil Service Development
Institute (CSDI), under the supervision of Central Personnel Administration (CPA) of
Executive Yuan. Fortunately, the dispute over the division of labor has been resolved
by a consensus reached under "Examination Yuan’s Plan to Strengthen the Civil
Service Training Function", which divides the high-ranking civil servants’ training
system into three categories, namely "Development Training", "Training for Senior
Civil Service", and "On-the-job training " NACS is responsible for the first two types
of training while CSDI takes charge of the third type of training.
With reference to the relevant literatures, the researchers have summarized seven
major problems in Taiwan’s high-ranking civil servants’ training system, namely lack
of flexibility in incoming sources of high-ranking civil servants for training (for
example: the threshold to restrict human resources exchange with the business
communication and individualism in the personnel development of different units),
not enough board-minded in professionalism, insufficient hand-on experience, lack of
adaptability, inconsistence in positions and responsibilities, lack of sense of
competition, and uninterested formalized curriculum arrangements (Chiang and Chen,
2010: 21-25). To further clarify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats
existing in the high-ranking civil servants’ training system, the researchers have
conducted the SWOT analysis in an attempt to illustrate more clearly the
environments and conditions facing the institutional reform of high-ranking civil
servants’ training system in Taiwan. Accordingly, this article has defined the measures
taken in the past to rectify existing controversy in the high-ranking civil servants’
training system as strengths, while the controversy continuing to exist as weaknesses.
Those elements and factors which may bring in inspiration and reform to the
high-ranking civil servants’ training systems are regarded as opportunities, such as the
global trend towards civil service reform and the needs to develop more human capital
due to the developments between two sides of the Taiwan Straits and/or the Asian
region. Those factors contradictory to opportunities are considered threats. For
example, is Taiwan able to compete with other Asian countries or even the world for
high-level human capital to meet the demand of globalization? Please refer to Table 2
for more details about the SWOT analysis for the high-ranking civil servants’ training
system in Taiwan.
- 6 -
Table 2: A SWOT Analysis of the high-ranking civil servants training system in Taiwan
Internal
Environment
Strength Weakness
The setup of National
Academy of Civil Service
(NACS)
The long-existing problem of overlapping
training responsibilities is still disturbing the
training system.
Lack of clear-cut management system for
high-ranking civil servants leads to
imperfect training system and exit
mechanism.
Coordination and integration capabilities of
high-ranking civil servants have to be
nurtured and developed through
cross-ministerial mechanisms.
Insufficient linkage between assessment of
core competency and implementation of
training courses for high-ranking civil
servants.
High-ranking civil servants do not
understand the needs of citizens and society
well enough.
External
Environment
Opportunity Threat
The impact of globalization
trends
The development of
cross-Taiwan-Strait
relations and Asia-Pacific
region
International human resources database for
the high-ranking civil servants has been not
yet established
Training courses for high-ranking civil
servants are not internationalized well
enough
Framework for core competencies of
high-ranking civil servants has to be more
carefully constructed.
Special executive management system is yet
to be constructed.
Source: Chiang and Chen, 2010: 31-32
(C) Analysis of the institutional environment Taiwan in the future 10 years
Scholars and experts who are actively involved in “foresight study” set up the
"Foresight Committee" in Taiwan in 2009, aiming to map out the future political,
economic, social, and cultural policies for Taiwan from the perspective of policy
foresight. Based on their research on international practice and trends, they have
advocated that the term “foresight" represents the discontinuity in cognitive science
and technology, humanities, social, political and economic development and external
environment and is closely related to uncertainty. All the policies should be
formulated to meet human needs and emphasize on both technology and humanities.
The second "CommonWealth Economic Forum" was held on 10-11 January 2011
to address the theme "The Rise of New Asia: Conflict, Growth and a New Future", in
which four future trends for Taiwan were identified, namely:
1. Taiwan's new role in Asia: President MA Ying-Jiu said in the opening speech
that Taiwan should play four new roles in Asia: (1) an important promoter of
economic integration in Asia: As of 2010, Taiwan has completed signing as
many as 80 free trade agreements with other countries; (2) the global
- 7 -
headquarters for Taiwanese businesses and regional headquarters for foreign
companies; (3) a global innovation center; and (4) a center for higher
education in the Asia-Pacific region.
2. A new growth model in East Asia: Economic ministers and chief scholars
from Taiwan, China, South Korea, and Japan predicted that East Asia will be
more consolidated and enter a new era of domestic demand-led growth.
Governments will play a role to provide social welfare and allocate resources.
In addition, Vice President Vincent Siew also proposed in his speech that the
core values of Asian development model should be "inclusive, balanced, and
sharing."
3. Economic forecast for Asia in 2011: It is predicted that three "new normal
states" will arrive in 2011. They are population (Baby boomers will recede,
while a new generation is coming up), the revision of historical rules
(European and American countries move away from the principle of free
market competition, while China continues to expand its market), and the
development of new Asian economic model (New Asian Way).
4. The era of digital convergence and cultural creativity: Asian cultural
creativity industry will make a dent in the world map. In mid-2010, the film
market value of four Asian countries, including South Korea, Japan and India,
have been flat with that of North America. The combination of telephone,
television, and the Internet has brought in the network convergence era. The
convergence of service and terminal devices has drawn operators and
consumers closer together, while Taiwan gains sustainable development
opportunities due to the fact that it is good at R & D and manufacture of
hardware.
We must think about the trends in the next 10 years that will affect the policy of
high-ranking civil servants’ training in Taiwan. On September 13, 2010, Foresight
Committee convened a forum named "Strengthening the foresight system and
enhancing Taiwan's competitiveness - think tank and decision-making", under which a
report entitled "ten challenges in the 10 golden years" was published. In this report,
some factors that may affect foresight planning in the next 10 years in Taiwan were
mentioned. Using data from those literatures, we have worked out some trends that
may likely to affect the reforms for the high-ranking civil servants’ training system in
Taiwan as follows (see Table 3).
- 8 -
Table 3: A summary of challenges, trends, and specific events in the next 10 years
Phase Year Challenges, trends, and specific events
Phase
1:
2011
~
2013
common
challenges
The will to carry out the policy agenda announced by the Examination
Yuan in its 11th term as well as six major plans for civil service reforms.
The capacity to implement those emerging policies, including the 12
major infrastructure projects for love of Taiwan, 4 new major intelligent
industries, 6 major emerging industry, 10 key service industries.
Economic challenges: Facing the regional economic integration and the
rise of China, Taiwan is yet to formulate foresight strategy to grasp
opportunities or to reduce threats.
Challenge to well-being: Benefits of economic growth can not be enjoyed
by all.
Challenges to security: Gap between rich and poor is rapidly expanding,
while urban crime rate is increasing.
2011
Plans of Intelligent Taiwan (2011-2016) start, stressing the theory and
practice of interactive service-oriented governance in the Web 2.0 era.
Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) signed between
two sides of Taiwan Straits celebrates its anniversary; investment in
Taiwan gets started.
Cabinet reshuffle is expected. Will it affect the departments in charge of
personnel administration? Will the new department head continue the old
policies?
2012
Presidential election for the 13th
term and Legislator election for the 8th
term
The third phase of nation-building 4-year (2009-2012) program in the new
century expires.
Phase
2:
2014
~
2017
common
challenges
Demographic challenges: Population is aging seriously, with working
population ratio turning into negative growth.
Educational challenges: closures of universities burst out. Educational
resources should be completely restructured.
Unemployment challenges: Unemployment rates increase and social
welfare spending soars, causing unbalance between financing and
annuities.
Talent challenge: Talent shortage is getting worse, causing intense
competition for talents in the globe.
2014 11th
-term Presidency of Examination Yuan expires at the end of the year
2016 Presidential election for the 14
th term and Legislator election for the 9
th
term
Phase
3:
2018
~
2020
common
challenges
Financial challenges: national budget deficits get worse, squeezing out
child welfare, women and health care and other welfare expenditures.
Resource challenges: Energy, minerals, food, and water are getting scarce,
causing intense competition among countries in the world.
Virtual Challenge: Virtual crimes in the Internet get serious.
2020
Presidential election for the 15th
term and Legislator election for the 10th
term
12th
-term Presidency of Examination Yuan expires at the end of the year
Source: retrieved and modified on 2010.11.10 from "Foresight Committee" blog site at
http://foresight30.blogspot.com/
C. Preparation for Foresight Research in advance
(A) An in-depth interview design and analysis of results
Before embarking on design of the Delphi questionnaire, the research team
conducted three in-depth interviews on November 2, 2010. The respondents were
invited from government and business sectors. All of them are experienced in training
high-ranking officials. Two of the respondents were invited from the Examination
- 9 -
Yuan and the Executive Yuan, with an aim to properly grasp the views of different
ministries. Respondents from the corporate sector are not only experienced in training
the officials but they are also senior managers across the industry. Interviews were
focused on collecting information on problems, coping strategies, and institutional
reform for the high-ranking civil servants’ training system from a foresight
perspective. Far below results of the interviews were analyzed and explained as
follows.
1. Foresight time considerations
The original 30-year planning period is a bit too long. The time frame for an
enterprise to conduct strategic planning is about three to five years. Therefore,
our first consideration is how long the average retirement age of public servants
is, due to the fact that the time frame for foresight planning should be long
enough to overhaul the entire structure. In addition, it would take at least 10
years for a civil servant to become a high-ranking civil servant in general. Thus,
it is appropriate to set 10 years as a study period for the foresight research.
2. Internal problems
(1) Lack of public dialogue to understand people's needs: a society or a country
should have a public dialogue mechanism between the government and the
people, so that the community can naturally shape its common vision.
(2) Lack of capacity for policy advocacy: At present, high-ranking civil servants
in Taiwan lack the communication skills to effectively convey the policy or
decree messages to people in the face of the media.
(3) Lack of resilience: In the face of problems, high-ranking civil servants are not
resilient enough. The entire system should opt for more openness.
(4) Importance of information technology: Information technology has been
changing our society and lifestyle significantly. However, in comparison with
enterprises, the government departments are much less aware of information
technology. Thus, the changes brought about by information technology
should be a focus in the training courses for high-ranking civil servants.
(5) Training being a mere formality: The government should first find out what
the need is before conducting training. Otherwise, the purpose of training is
only a formality. Traditional teaching methods should not be used in the
training of high-ranking civil servants. Instead, interactive participation in the
process should be encouraged.
(6) Lack of loyalty: High-ranking civil servants lack for loyalty and a sense of
belonging. In an enterprise, loyalty and a sense of belonging are attitudes of
first priority for developing a good working attitude. However, attitudes are
also the products of the whole work environment and mechanism. So, loyalty
- 10 -
and a sense of belonging should be instilled into the mechanisms for
high-ranking civil servants.
3. External problems
(1) Lack of social and cultural upgrading: High-ranking civil servants should not
only pursue competitiveness to face the global challenge but also improve
their service quality to the public and their own personal qualities. In other
words, they should improve themselves internally and externally, which
should be one of the government's policies, too.
(2) Lack of sense of competitive threat: This is a competition-oriented society
today. The Government should be a competition-oriented organization. Thus,
high-ranking civil servants should be aware of the external threat in a
competitive society and continue to enhance their own capabilities.
4. Strategy
(1) High-ranking civil servants should integrate public vision with practice:
High-ranking civil servants should develop macro perspective, understand
public affairs strategies, and integrate concepts with practices.
(2) Sources of teachers should not be limited to the academia, the public sector, or
the private sector: As high-ranking civil servants have to develop integrated
vision, the sources of teachers should not be limited to the public sector,
private sector, or the academia. Teachers may also come from non-profit
organizations or community organizations.
(3) Training courses should focus on the nature of publicity: Training courses
should focus on the concept of publicity, so as to develop the ability and
intention of high-ranking civil servants to integrate the policies with the
aforementioned value.
(4) Avoidance of education in a single system: High-ranking civil servants should
be rotated across different sectors or international organizations, so that they
would not limit their view or problem solving to the angel of their own
department alone.
5. System establishment
(1) Pursuit of personal sense of public service: It is hoped that high-ranking civil
servants can deeply feel and care for the community in the process of
providing public services and are stimulated to provide even better public
services with innovation.
(2) Courses designed to meet culture-specific conditions: Training programs must
be designed to nurture the functions and core competencies of high-ranking
civil servants to meet the culture-specific conditions of Taiwan.
(3) A learning map: It is desirable to promote the learning map from the
- 11 -
perspective of the high-ranking civil servants, so that they can be guided to
effectively use national resources and gain a sense of accomplishment.
(B) The design of Delphi questionnaire and analysis of results
1. Pre-test of questionnaire design and analysis of results
In order to obtain higher consensus on the results of the formal Delphi
questionnaire and to collect recommendations for modification of the drafted
questionnaire, we invited 38 officials (Junior Rank, grades 7-9) from different
personnel units to fill out questionnaires on 22 November 2010. We collected 36
valid questionnaires, with a return rate to 94.7%. The pre-test questionnaire was
composed of four main parts, namely "During the 10-year foresight planning
period, the problems that we may face for training high-ranking civil servants
and their appropriateness level", "During the 10-year foresight planning period,
the problem-solving strategies for training high-ranking civil servants and their
appropriateness level", "During the 10-year foresight planning period, the
dimension for constructing high-ranking civil servants’ training system and their
appropriateness level", and "The appropriateness level of the four dimensions
and their subordinating dimensions as well as their measurement items".
We then used "standard deviation" to measure the divergence level of
viewpoints among the respondents. If the standard deviation was 0.6 or less, we
defined that the respondents had "high consensus" in the index; if the standard
deviation lay in between 0.6 to 1, they were considered as "moderate consensus",
while those with a standard deviation above 1 as "low consensus".1 The mean
was used to determine the extent agreed by respondents for an indicator. The
higher the score, the higher level the respondents agreed on the indicator. Among
the 72 question items asked in the pretest questionnaire, 34 question items
reached "high consensus" (standard deviation being 0.6 or less), 37 question
Items achieved moderate consensus (standard deviation in between 0.6 and 1),
and 1 question Item at "low consensus" (standard deviation over 1), showing that
there were some controversies in the drafted questionnaire and some revisions
were needed before the first round of formal survey was conducted.
2. Design of the official questionnaire and analysis of the results
In the first round of questionnaire, we used the revised Delphi survey
method to construct assessment dimensions and indicators based on analysis of
literatures. For the first round of survey, 18 questionnaires were sent out by mail
1 How stringent the standards to inspect the Delphi analysis are may depend on the complexity of
issues, the sensitivity level, respondents’ understanding of the subject, and subjective judgments of
researchers; this article applied the standards used by most of the literatures in dealing with the same
research. For relevant literatures, please see Hartman (1981), Linstone & Turoff (1979), Mishler (1986),
and Shieh (1990).
- 12 -
on November 26, 2010 and 14 were recovered on 30 November 2010, with a
recovery rate of 78%. When we started coding for the recovered questionnaires,
we figured out a way to avoid coding ambiguity for the second round of
questionnaire recovery and decided to mark "A" for those coming back from
Examination Yuan or its respective agencies, "B" for Central Personnel
Administration of Executive Yuan or its respective agencies, "C" for scholars,
and the same coding for those successful respondents in the first round. 14
questionnaires were sent by e-mail in the second round of survey on December
11, 2010 and 11 were recovered in between Dec. 15 and 20, 2010, with a
recovery rate of 79%. Replies from those respondents were listed as follows in
Table 4.
Table 4: Recovery of Delphi questionnaires in the first and second rounds
Round Identity Coding reply/copies sent
Round 1 Government
departments
A01-A03
B01-B08
9/11
Scholars C01-C07 5/7
Overall recovery ratio 14/18(78%)
Round 2 Government
departments
A02-A03
B01-B04
B06-B08
6/9
Scholars C01-C03
C05-C06
5/5
Overall recovery ratio 11/14(79%)
"Standard deviation" was then used to measure the divergence level of
viewpoints among the respondents. If the standard deviation was 0.6 or less, we
defined that the respondents had "high consensus" in the index; if the standard
deviation lay in between 0.6 to 1, they were considered as "moderate consensus",
while those with a standard deviation above 1 as "low consensus". The mean was
used to determine the extent agreed by respondents for an indicator. The higher
the score, the higher level the respondents agreed on the indicator. Among the 71
question items asked in the first round of questionnaires, 38 question items
reached "high consensus" (standard deviation being 0.6 or less), 22 question
Items achieved moderate consensus (standard deviation in between 0.6 and 1),
and 11 question Items at "low consensus" (standard deviation over 1), showing
that there were some controversies in the first-round questionnaire and some
revisions were needed before the second round of formal survey was conducted.
Inspection of the second-round questionnaire, we found that only the first
part, the internal and external problems facing the high-ranking civil servants’
training system, appeared to have slightly divergent views, while the majority of
other indicators showed a decrease in the standard deviation and an increase in
the mean. Among the 74 question items in the second-round questionnaire, 23
- 13 -
achieved high consensus (standard deviation less than 0.6), fewer than 38 in the
first-round questionnaire, while 15 low consensuses in the second-round
questionnaire were also slightly higher than the 11 low consensuses in the
first-round questionnaire. In addition, among the 36 moderate consensuses in the
second-round questionnaire, the standard deviations of 22 question items fell in
between 0.61 to 0.70, indicating the respondents' views were more focused than
those in between the first-round questionnaire. In addition, as we discovered that
respondents had more divergent opinions about the internal and external
problems in the first part, thus, this first part would be put into in-depth
discussion in the follow-up planning meetings, to seek consensus for the
foresight program among the experts and scholars.
(C) An overview of scenario planning and scenario writing
It is the intention of scenario planning strategy to maintain public confidence in
the public sector, while scenario writing is to jog down the possible scenarios and the
affecting factors that policy decision makers may face when they test the policies in a
real-life situation, so that they can preparedly and timely response to those challenges
if they happen as predicted. In short, scenario planning is to find out by multiple
perspectives the possible developments, results, and affecting factors for the future.
It is essential to first establish a research framework for the scenario planning
process so as to understand and analyze the complexity of an emerging subject,
explore the undetermined region and unexpected things, assess the interdependence or
consistency between issues and between changing factors, and assess the development
and response to forecast issues under the specific conditions (or impact). In general,
scenario planning is often used in critical issues, for understanding of environmental
changes (information control, staff conditions, and conceptual capability), for
surpassing short-term and spatial boundaries, and for organizational development
issues. The reason why scenario planning is applied to the above topics or purposes is
mainly because its methods have the following four advantages:
1. Impact on mental models: It is hoped to influence the thinking of policy
makers and stakeholders, such as high-level officials and the key viewpoint
providers in the public sector. Scenario analysis provides a kind of sense so
that people would be more flexible and open-minded in their mental models
and in a better position to feel the issues at hand and ready to be reviewed.
2. New thinking and innovation: When we find the scenario analysis can be used
to describe the world’s future development, we begin to imagine how to
construct our future differently. Through the imagination process of definition
and comparison, we begin to link the different ideas to develop new thinking
- 14 -
and innovative approaches for the organization.
3. The future trends are unfolded at the present: Policy makers usually focus on
today or yesterday because of the daily pressure they face. In the case of
scenario analysis, the future is a factor to be used for innovative thinking and
organization structuring.
4. Clues to future events: Scenario analysis is a method emphasizing intuition
and consistency of research. As the environment changes, it can be use to
identify, enhance and present the faces of an organization at different times.
Development of scenario planning is a necessary step to organize the business
environment and the vision. However, the methods used in its process are very
different from those of traditional planning. The obvious difference is that
scenario-planning information is used to create the future or influence the mental
models. In addition, scenario planning can be used to develop policy models and
frameworks. It also provides an alternative structure for people to explore
technological innovation, transformation of social values, and other changes and
shocks.
D. Design and implementation of scenario planning discussions
Scholars may vary in their claims for the scenario planning and analysis steps.
Among them, the steps proposed by Stanford Research Institute (SRI) are considered
the best because they are simplified but perfect. The steps in sequence are to "identify
foresight planning issues - identify key decision factors - brainstorm forces & drivers -
rate by importance & uncertainty - group forces & drivers - name axes & endpoints".
After these steps are carried out, the scenario must be given a named, explained, and
fully described.
Our scenario planning discussion was held on December 26, 2010. Three experts
were invited, each representing the business, the government, and the academic. At
the beginning of the "scenario planning and scenario writing seminars", we first made
a briefing on what literatures were reviewed, how in-depth interviews were conducted,
what results the Delphi survey found. (Copies of briefing materials had been sent by
e-mail to the participants in advance, in a hope to improve the efficiency of live
discussions.) As consensus on some future environmental trends had not been reached
in the two rounds of Delphi questionnaire surveys, thus, we first focused the
discussion on agenda related to the future environment. The results of the scenario
planning discussions will be explained In the following six steps, namely to "identify
foresight planning issues - identify key decision factors - brainstorm forces & drivers -
rate by importance & uncertainty - group forces & drivers - name axes & endpoints".
- 15 -
Step 1: Identify foresight planning issues
The scope and focus of scenario planning issues were equivalent to the purposes
and problems of the commissioned research project. We named the scenario planning
discussion as "The trends of Taiwan's high-ranking civil servants’ training system in
the next 10 years".
Step 2: Identify key decision factors
Following the aforementioned scenario planning issues, the forum must confirm
the major decision factors, especially when two rounds of Delphi questionnaire survey
did not produce a consensus on the internal and external environmental factors that
may affect the development of high-ranking civil servants’ training system. Results of
the second round of Delphi questionnaire survey showed that the respondents did not
reach consensus on "internal problems and external problems facing the high-ranking
civil servants’ training system". Even though extreme opinions were excluded, the
mean or standard deviation is not so satisfactory at all.
In the scenario planning forum, participants suggested the title of "diagnosis of
high-ranking civil servants’ training problems" to express the challenges that foresight
policy may face in the next 10 years, and then divided the problems to be diagnosed
into two parts, consisting of the internal environment in which the public expectations
and needs must be met and the external environment in which challenges of global
competition must be addressed. In addition, participants proposed to address the
internal and external problems facing the high-ranking civil servants’ training system
by the name "high-ranking civil servants training strategy", which was not only a
more appropriate governing concept but also echoed the main function of the
foresight study.
Step 3: Brainstorm forces & drivers
After identifying "diagnosis of high-ranking civil servants’ training problems"
and "high-ranking civil servants training strategy" as key decision factors for "The
trends of Taiwan's high-ranking civil servants’ training system in the next 10 years",
participants began to discuss over the affecting factors listed on table 3 (A summary
of challenges, trends, and specific events in the next 10 years) and the problems and
strategy listed on the second round Delphi survey. Brainstorming was applied to seek
consensus on those driving forces (or impact forces) that may influence Taiwan's
high-ranking civil servants training. Finally, participants reached a consensus on 29
important driving (or influencing) forces (see Table 5), which included both positive
and negative descriptions.
- 16 -
Table 5: Scenario planning and drivers for Taiwan high-ranking civil servants’ training system
Grouping Scenario
Drivers
Aggressive
development
Conservative and
stable
strong middle weak strong middle weak
Political
Timing of reform V V
Public support V V
Political influence V V
Will of top-level to reform V V
Pressure of public opinion V V
Administrative
Departmental collaboration2 V V
Collaboration between
Presidential Office and
Executive Yuan
V V
Administrative innovation V V
Distribution of training funds V V
Culture
Existing rights V V
Departmental selfishness V V
Conservative attitude V V
Characteristics of an
organization V V
Institutional trust V V
Society
Civil identity V V
Choices of policy instruments V V
Awareness of service quality V V
The proportion of female civil
servants V V
External
environmental
factors
Global thinking V V
National Competitiveness V V
Development of civil society V V
Trends of human resources
development V V
Trends of international
high-ranking civil servants’
training
V V
Supporting
measures
E-governance V V
Combination of training and
employment V V
Mapping of functions V V
Cross-sectoral rotation V V
Strip of training V V
Change of the testing systems
to high-ranking civil servants V V
Notes: the degree of influence on the driver is divides into three levels as “strong, middle, and weak”.
Step 4: Rate by importance & uncertainty
Following the generation of the aforementioned 29 important drivers (or
influence), we shifted our attention to the evaluation of those factors and found that
we needed to rate the importance of two determining criteria, namely "desired future
conditions" and "undesired future conditions". In other words, if the reform of
2 The so-called "departmental collaboration" means that when the government regularly outsources its
business, civil servants have to learn some new business, learn how to work together or even compete
with the second-sector and third-sector organizations. This phenomenon would easily lead to formation
of environmental pressures to the institutional reforms.
- 17 -
high-ranking civil servants’ training system were to continue, we needed to rate the
“desired future conditions" by importance in a way that we indicated that the factor
was "strong, middle, or weak”.
Step 5: Group forces & drivers
Participants chose the internal and external environmental factors stated in
"diagnosis of high-ranking civil servants’ training problems" to classify the 29
important drivers (or influence) by asking the question what pressure this factor
would cause to the reforms of high-ranking civil servants’ training system. The
nomenclature was based on the factors listed in table 3 and the internal and external
environmental factors listed in the Delphi questionnaire. Some results would be
explained in the following. For more details, please refer to Table 5.
(A) Internal environmental factors: In order to meet the expectations of the citizens,
what internal environmental factors were essential to the reforms of high-ranking
civil servants’ training system and what development direction the institutional
reform should go in terms of "Political, Administrative, Culture, Society"
aspects.
1. Political aspects: When the timing for reforming the civil service system is
emerging, it would force the system to respond to the disputes of the present
situation. Agents of change might solicit supports from the public to
strengthen their will to reform and promote the institutional reform for training
high-ranking civil servants so as to meet the needs of the people. However,
public servants themselves are interest groups, and they may also lobby to put
pressure on the institutional reform in a hope that the reform would be in line
with their interests and preferences.
2. Administrative aspects: When the Government departments interact more
frequently with the second-sector and third-sector organizations, they may
respond positively to the situations they are facing, leading to institutional
changes. On the other hand, if they ignore the pressure coming from the
situations, change would not happen and even cause the system to deteriorate.
However, the collaboration between the Presidential Office and the Executive
Yuan may lead to either aggressive or conservative changes, depending on
what attitudes they adopt in responding to the situation. Two concepts may
play an important role here. The first is the concept of inter-organizational
cooperation, while the other is an organization’s capabilities to defend its
boundaries in a conservative way.
3. Cultural aspects: During the change process, negative cultural factors often
lead an organization or a system to conservatism and defensiveness, which are
- 18 -
not good response to the situations. Although organizational trust is considered
a positive cultural element, it may lead to either following-up or resistance to a
change. In the following-up case, people trust that the change will lead his or
her organizational towards a better state, while in the latter case, people hold
on to the existing system and appear conservative towards changes. In addition,
different government agencies have different characteristics, which may affect
their attitude towards changes. For example, the Ministry of Economic Affairs,
which interacts intensively and deeply with the business community, tends to
be more active and positive towards changes, while the Ministry of Education
may react to changes in an opposite way.
4. Social aspects: A society may consist of some sub-systems, which may react
differently to changes. In addition to meeting public expectations, the
high-ranking civil servants’ training system has to deal with the pressure
coming from the sub-systems, which may accept or resist changes. It is
generally believed that women tend to be more positive towards changes.
However, the issue whether to increase the proportion of women high-ranking
civil servants would lead to a better acceptance of institutional reforms needs a
more detailed discussion and inspection.
(B) External environmental factors: In response to challenges derived from
globalization and regionalization and to enhance national competitiveness, the
capability of the high-ranking civil servants’ training system must be elevated
and aligned to the international standards.
(C) Supporting measures: Included in this category are such measures and
propositions as "IT-derived E-governance”, “an integrated personnel policy to
combine teaching, testing, training, and employment”, “design and planning
for mapping of functions and strips of training”, “rotation system” and
“employment relaxation of the civil servants".
Step 6: name axes & endpoints
In order to briefly explain the foresight development and possible scenarios for
Taiwan's high-ranking civil servants training in the next 10 years, participants
suggested pairing problems with strategies. Thus, they decided to put "environmental
responsiveness" and "legal innovation" on the axis, representing the "diagnosis of
high-ranking civil servants' training problems" and "channel to propose high-ranking
civil servants training strategy" and put "with or without" on the endpoints of
nomenclature (see Figure 2).
- 19 -
Figure 2: Schematic diagram of the axis and the endpoint naming
E. Results of the study
In this study, we have used multiple research methods and developed two axes,
namely "environmental responsiveness" and "legal innovation", separately
representing the "diagnosis of high-ranking civil servants training" and "strategic
initiative to high-ranking civil servants training". Following this line of logic, we have
then divided the reform thinking of high-ranking civil servants training system into
four categories, including "conservative thinking (stability)”, “entrepreneur mentality
(development)”, “compromising mentality (muddling through)”, and bureaucratic
thinking (backwardness)". We have positioned the current status of Taiwan
high-ranking civil servants’ training system as "conservative thinking (stable)", based
on which we have then proposed two scenarios, namely "positive development" and
"conservatively stable", representing "desired future state" (developmental type) and
"undesired future conditions" (regressive type), respectively (see Figure 3).
- 20 -
Figure 3: consensus in foresight planning for Taiwan's high-ranking civil servants’ training system
In the analysis process of this study, we found that respondents to the Delphi
survey differed greatly in their opinions about the challenges and affecting factors for
the high-ranking civil servants’ training system. After the extreme values were
excluded to improve the degree of consensus, low consensus was still reached on
some question items. To further confirm the affecting factors and to facilitate the
scenario writing for Taiwan’s high-ranking civil servants’ training system in the next
10 years, the experts participating in the "scenario planning and scenario writing
seminar" matched the 29 drivers for institutional reform on which they had reached
consensus with those factors list on Table 3: A summary of challenges, trends, and
specific events in the next 10 years to explain the relationship between 29 drivers and
two scenario - "desired future state" (developmental) and "undesired future state"
(regressive type) (see Table 6).
Table 6: The relationship between two scenarios and the drivers
Grouping Drivers Scenario
Aggressive development Conservatism and stability
Political
Timing of reform Cabinet reshuffle would be modest in 2011; Relationship between
Examination Yuan and Executive Yuan would be harmony; It is the
year to begin the campaigns for Presidential election and
legislative elections; President of Examination Yuan continues to
demonstrate his political influence and his will to reform;
High-ranking civil servants would be fostered in accordance with
succession program and the government priority policies set out
for the next 10 years; Support would be won over a majority of
legislators. → aggressive development
If the aforementioned situations develop in a reverse direction, the
scenario may turn out to be "conservative and stable".
Public support
Political influence
Will of top-level to
reform
Pressure of public
opinion
- 21 -
Administrative
Departmental
collaboration3
Attention would be paid to departmental collaboration and
administrative innovation; Adequate funds would be allocated to
training programs; Central government would turn out a powerful
leader. → aggressive development
Because of the elections, the system would tend to "conservatism
and stability” in the period between 2014 and 2016.
Collaboration
between Presidential
Office and Executive
Yuan
Administrative
innovation
Distribution of
training funds
Culture
Existing rights Lack of trust in institutional change; Resistance from vested
interest groups; Departmental selfishness.→ "aggressive
development" On the contrary, it would turn out to be "conservative and
stable".
Departmental
selfishness
Conservative attitude
Characteristics of an
organization
Institutional trust
Society
Civil identity Increase the proportion of women officials, shaping a new social
identity; Civil society would flourish and demand better services;
Officials realize the changes in the society and choose appropriate
policy tools to meet the demands of the public.→ aggressive
development In contrast, if the aforementioned situations develop in a reverse
direction, it may turn out to be "conservative and stable".
Choices of policy
instruments
Awareness of service
quality
The proportion of
female civil servants
External
environmental
factors
Global thinking Government continues to actively expand its international
exposure; Attention is paid to various international
competitiveness evaluation results; Civil society in Taiwan
develops sustainably; Concepts of human resources, lifelong
learning, and human capital are emphasized and promoted;
Training system for high-ranking civil servants’ becomes a
growing trend; Aging in population and declining birthrate become
an increasingly serious problem. → aggressive development
If the aforementioned situations are in lack of pressure for
development, it may turn to be "conservative and stable".
National
Competitiveness
Development of civil
society
Trends of human
resources
development
Trends of
international
high-ranking civil
servants’ training
Supporting
measures
E-governance Cloud technology drives waves of e-governance learning;
Integrated personnel policy is promoted to combine teaching,
testing, training and employment; Training requirements are linked
with functions mapping for the high-ranking civil servants;
Cross-sectoral rotation system is established; Channels to recruit
high-ranking civil servants are diversified and widened.→
aggressive development If the aforementioned situations develop in a reverse direction, it
may turn to be "conservative and stable".
Combination of
training and
employment
Mapping of functions
Cross-sectoral
rotation
Strip of training
Change of the testing
systems to
high-ranking civil
servants
3 The so-called "departmental collaboration" means that when the government regularly outsources its
business, civil servants have to learn some new business, learn how to work together or even compete
with the second-sector and third-sector organizations. This phenomenon would easily lead to formation
of environmental pressures to the institutional reforms.
- 22 -
References:
Cao, Jun-Han (2010). Globalization and the trend to transform Taiwan's civil service screening and
training mechanisms. Taipei: A research project commissioned by the Examination Yuan.
Chen, Jose Chiu-C. (2008). A research on cross-sector management --- its contents and inspiration.
Intergovernmental relations Research News Letters, 4, 29-32.
Chiang, Min-Hsiu (1998). A study on the system to teach, test, train, and use civil servants. Taipei:
Examinations Research and Development Committee
Chiang, Min-Hsiu (2000). A study on the system to teach, test, train, and use civil servants. Taipei:
Examinations Research and Development Committee
Chiang, Min-Hsiu (2009). The global trends of administrative ethics in legal system. Philosophy and
Culture, 36 (1): 3-24.
Chiang, Min-Hsiu, et al (2000). Five ways to research personnel administration: Also a discussion of
the issues and reform concerning civil service system in Taiwan.Personnel Administration, 132,
54-67.
Chiang, Min-Hsiu, Guan-Qiu Zeng (2009).Reinventing the Government: A perspective of
cross-sectoral governance point of view. National Elite Quarterly, 5(1): 97-122.
Chiang, Min-Hsiu, Jose Chiu-C. Chen (2003a). New trend for public service manpower training.
Public Service Monthly, 81, 2-3.
Chiang, Min-Hsiu, Jose Chiu-C. Chen (2003b).Reinventing the government by strategic human
resources management. T&D, 10, 1-8.
Chiang, Min-Hsiu, Jose Chiu-C. Chen (2003c).A research into training and use of high-ranking
officials: A theoretical exploration and analysis of international experience. Examination &
Personnel Quarterly, 37, 41-54.
Chiang, Min-Hsiu, Jose Chiu-C. Chen (2004).An analysis on the talent faults in the Government:
Taking OECD Member States as examples. Public Service Monthly, 100, 26-32.
Chiang, Min-Hsiu, Jose Chiu-C. Chen (2010).A foresight study on training high-ranking civil
servants in Taiwan. A research project commissioned by the Examination Yuan.
Chou, Chi-Sheng (2009). A proposal of foresight development plan for Taiwan's agricultural
technology based on the technologic foresight experience of other countries. Taiwan Economic
Research Monthly, 32(12): 48-56.
Civil Service Protection and Training Commission (2010). Leap training programs for high-ranking
civil servants. Taipei: Civil Service Protection and Training Commission.
Examination Yuan (2010). Civil Service Reforms and Planning. Taipei: Examination Yuan.
Fan, Xiang-Wei (2010). To construct a special performance-oriented management system for Taiwan's
high-ranking civil servants. Research and Evaluation Bimonthly, 34(3): 102-110.
Foresight Committee (2010). Policy Foresight Thinking. Taipei: Foresight Committee.
Hartman, A. (1981). Reaching consensus using the Delphi technique. Education Leadership, 38,
495-97.
Horton, A. (1999). A simple guide to successful foresight. Foresight, 1(1): 5-9.
Kang, Mei-Feng, Zhu-Ling Lee (2009). Challenges to and opportunities for foresight study: The
experience of advanced countries. Technological Development Policy Report, 5, 92-95.
Lee, Chang-Yan (2009). Design and selection of policy tools for collaboration between Presidential
Office and Executive Yuan. Local Study Monthly, 101, 24-38.
Linstone, H. A. & M. Turoff (1979). The Delphi method: Techniques and applications. MA:
Addison-Wesley Publishing Company.
Liu, Kun-Yi (2009). Planning for the training system of middle to high-ranking civil servants.
Personnel Monthly, 48(4): 24-38.
Liu, Kun-Yi (2010). A global architecture for high-ranking civil servants training. T&D, 89, 1-12
Martin, B. R. & J. Irvine (1989). Research foresight priority setting in science. London: SRP Limited.
Mishler, E. G. (1986). Research Interviewing: Context and Narrative. Cambridge, Massachusetts:
Harvard University Press.
OECD (2008). The Senior Civil Service in National Government of OECD Countries. Paris: OECD.
Peng, Thomas Ching-Peng (1998). A model to screen, recruit, and train senior civil servants. Political
Science Essays Collection, 9, 329-362.
Peng, Thomas Ching-Peng (2005). A new idea to construct the senior civil service system under global
competition, Examination & Personnel Quarterly, 42, 18-43.
Peng, Thomas Ching-Peng (2006). The trend and development for reforming the government: A
perspective from OECD experience. Personnel Monthly, 42(2): 16-29.
- 23 -
Peng, Thomas Ching-Peng (2007). The convergent trends of senior civil service system. Europe and
America Research, 37(4): 635-679.
Peng, Thomas Ching-Peng (2009). Analysis of the organizational structure of central government:
Using mainly the cases of OECD countries as examples. Research and Evaluation Bimonthly,
33(3): 32-43.
Peng, Thomas Ching-Peng (translation) (2005). European Institute of Public Administration
(Original: Senior civil service system). Taipei: Ministry of Civil Service.
Peng, Thomas Ching-Peng et al. (2005). A research on the examination, selection, and employment
system for senior civil servants. Taipei: Examination Yuan.
Peng, Thomas Ching-Peng, Kun-Yi Liu (2009). A research on the direction for reforming Taiwan's
civil service and human resources. Taipei: A research project commissioned by the Executive
Yuan.
Qiu, Zhi-Chun, Rong-Hu Huang (2009). The establishment and core missions of National Academy of
Civil Service (NACS). Journal of Civil Service, Special edition for the 80th
anniversary of
Examination Yuan, pages 25-38.
Saliba, Gary and Glenn Withers (2010). Scenario analysis for strategic thinking. In George Argyrous
(ed.), A Practical Guide Evidence for Policy and Decision-making (p.116-136). Australia: NAU.
Shen, Kun-Hing (2006). A study on integration of teaching, testing, training, and employment of civil
servants, National Elite Quarterly, 2(4): 1-24.
Shi, Neng-Jie (2006). Capabilities of civil service system and competitiveness of the government: A
perspective of strategic human resource management. Soochow Political Science, 22, 1-46.
Shieh, V. (1990). Using Delphi technique to determine the most important characteristics of effective
teaching at Junior High School level in Taiwan. Doctor Dissertation, University of Cincinnati.
Sun, Zhili (2008). Establishment of foresight system for Agricultural Science and Technology. Taipei:
analysis reports of Development. Center for. Biotechnology, Taiwan Institute of Economic
Research.
Tsai, Chi-Xian (2008). Challenges to public human resource management. Personnel Monthly, 47(5):
1-12.
Watson, R. (1997). Ethnomethodology and textual analysis. In D. Silverman (ed.), Qualitative research:
Theory, method and practice (p. 80-98). London: Sage.
Wu, San-Ling, Chong-Bin Wang (2006).A research on the induction of core capabilities into Public
human resources management: The use of test and selection and training as an induction strategy.
National Elite Quarterly, 4(2): 25-42.
Wu, Tai-Cheng (2009). The cradle of high-level civil service training. T&D, 83, 1-2.
Xiao, Yu (2010). The representative examples of learning map for middle- to high-ranking civil
servants in various countries. Personnel Monthly, 50(2): 41-48.
Yoshikawa, Hiroyuki (2010). Learning from Japanese experience: Advanced foresight think-tank
system. Forum for "Enhanced vision system, enhanced competitiveness for Taiwan, and
decision-making think tank". Taipei: National Chengchi University.