POLICY BRIEF How can foresight help to reduce vulnerability to climate-related hazards?€¦ ·...
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Platform for climate adaptation & disaster risk reduction www.placard-network.eu 1 Our policy brief highlights how foresight – combining participatory futures thinking with strategic analysis – can support the integration of Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). Figure 1 shows how CCA and DRR overlap. POLICY BRIEF How can foresight help to reduce vulnerability to climate-related hazards? Markus Leitner, Umweltbundesamt
Transcript of POLICY BRIEF How can foresight help to reduce vulnerability to climate-related hazards?€¦ ·...
Platformforclimateadaptation&disasterriskreduction
www.placard-network.eu
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Ourpolicybriefhighlightshowforesight–combiningparticipatoryfuturesthinkingwithstrategicanalysis–cansupporttheintegrationofClimateChangeAdaptation(CCA)andDisasterRiskReduction(DRR).
Figure1showshowCCAandDRRoverlap.
POLICYBRIEF
Howcanforesighthelptoreducevulnerabilitytoclimate-relatedhazards?
MarkusLeitner,Umweltbundesamt
Platformforclimateadaptation&disasterriskreduction
www.placard-network.eu
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Foresightcanbedefinedasaforward-lookingapproachtohelpdecision-makersexploreandprepareforarangeofpossiblefuturescenarios,andinfluenceandshapethosefutures.
Foresighttypicallyinvolvessystematicandparticipatoryintelligencegathering,andmedium-tolong-termvision-buildingprocessestouncoverarangeofalternativefutureideas.SeeFLISInterestGroup.
Aforesightapproachusesarangeofmethods,toolsandformatswithahighdegreeofparticipationandstakeholderengagement,examiningfuturedevelopmentsandintegratingthemintotoday’sdecision-making.SeeJRC,2001.
Elementsofforesightscience,policyandpracticecanstrengthenCCAandDRR,linkwithinternationalmechanismssuchastheSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs)andexploretheimplicationsoftheglobalagreements(ParisandSendai)forEuropean,nationalandlocalaction.
Figure2:Roleofforesight.RedrawnfromJRCFor-LEARN.
Platformforclimateadaptation&disasterriskreduction
www.placard-network.eu
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WhatarethebarrierstousingforesightinCCAandDRR?• DRRisparticipatoryandmainlybasedinthepastandpresent:CCAisforward-looking,butuses
methodsdominatedbyquantitativescenarioanalysisandgradualchangewithlimitedrelevanceforlocalaction.
• Summariesofforesightmethodsexist,butcase-studieswhereforesightisappliedtoCCAorDRRarenotwidelyavailable.
• TheEuropeanforesightplatformthatcouldhavebeenusefulisnolongeractive.
HowcouldforesightsupportCCAandDRR?• CCAandDRRbothemphasisetheimportanceofparticipatoryapproachesinengagingdifferent
actorsatdifferentlevelsandsectors–thebroadmenuofqualitativeandquantitativeforesightmethodsoffersopportunitiestohelpwiththeseactivities.
• CCAincreasinglyfocusesattentiononchangesinweatherextremes,whileDRRaddresseslonger-termconcernsinenhancingresilience–amulti-methodforesightapproachusingtoolssuchasanalysisofmegatrends,wildcardsanddisruptorswilladdtothescenarioapproachcommoninclimatechangeanalysis.
• Foresighttoolscanhelptoencouragestrategicthinkingandprioritisation.ThegoalofaforesightexerciseforCCAand/orDRRshouldbeclearlydefined.
• Aforesighttoolboxhasmultiplepurposes,sothechoiceofmethodsshouldbeopen-mindedandfocusedonthespecifictarget,objectiveandtime-horizonofaparticularproblem.Therangeofmethodsincludesforesight-specificoptionsaswellascross-disciplinary–severalcanbecombined.
HowcanwemakebetteruseofforesightinCCAandDRR?• Supportabetterunderstandingoftheneedsandbarrierstotheintegrationofthe“future”
dimensionincurrentdecision-making–morelong-termthinkinginpolicyandpracticeandidentifyingemergingissues.
• UnderstandthedifferencesandsimilaritiesinperspectivesandexpectationsbetweenCCA,DRRandforesight.
• Bringthetwocommunitiestogetherinconcreteactivitieswithaclearlydefinedgoalandapplyforesightmethods.
• Developconcreteandachievableoutputsfromforesightthinking,definingframingandcontext.Forexample,cleartrends,quantitativeoutputs,setsofscenariosandnarratives,tosmoothintegrationwithinCCAandDRRactivities.
• Understandpeople’sperceptionsandifneeded,trytochangethem–forexample,researchers,practitioners,decision-makersandNGOs.CCAandDRRpractitionerscanhavedifferentviewsonthesameissues.
• IdentifyspecificopportunitiesforconnectingCCAandDRR,forexamplethroughresearchprogrammingandprojects.
Platformforclimateadaptation&disasterriskreduction
www.placard-network.eu
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Citation:Leitner,M.(2017)Howcanforesighthelptoreducevulnerabilitytoclimate-relatedhazards?Policybriefresultingfromaworkshopheldon24–25October2016atNationalMetService(ZAMG),Vienna
Forfurtherinformation,pleasecontactMárioPulquério:[email protected]
• ConductresearchandimprovecapacitybuildingtointegrateDRRandCCA.CCAactorscouldbenefitfromaclearerunderstandingoftheimportanceofaDRRorextremeeventfocus,whileDRRpractitionersmaybenefitfromgraspingtherelevanceofalong-termclimatechangeperspectiveforprevention.
• Defineresearchquestionsandtime-horizonsearlyintheprojectplanningorproposalstagetoselectandapplythemostsuitableforesightmethodsanddeliverknowledge,forexample,researchneeds,futurevisionsandactionplans.
• Promoteandcommunicateforesightexamples–goodpracticeondifferentlevels,contextsandsettings.Forexample,forward-lookingco-operationtoimplementmeasureswithappropriateinstitutions,authoritiesandstakeholders.
• Provideevidenceoftheimmediatebenefitsofforesight–andtherisksofnotusingit!
• Designappropriateforesightprocessesthatscopetheproblemsathand,explorescenarios,developavision,back-cast,evaluatelearninganditeration,andthencarryoutaseriesofpracticalforesightexercisesatdifferentlevelstoseehowtheywork.Doit–don’tjusttalkaboutit!
• Applyforesightmethodstoexistingpractices.Foresightmethodsarealreadypartlyusedinadaptationpathways,climatescenarios,impactandvulnerabilityassessments,andindevelopmentofclimatechangeadaptationanddisasterriskreductionstrategiesandactionplans.
• Avoidivory-towerresearchwhichisunattractiveataregionalorlocalauthoritylevelwheredecisionsaremade.
We’recontinuingourworkonassessingthevalueofforesighttohelpwithCCAand/orDRR,andwillbeaddingtoouroutputsduring2017.
