Police Tactical Decision Making & Planning
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Tactical Decision Making & Planning
Prepared by Vincent Amoresano 21 May 2009
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Learning Objectives
Apply the Analytical and Intuitive Decision-Making Models to determine an appropriate course of action
Plan a moderately complex tactical operation using the eight-step Tactical Planning Procedure
Develop a 5 paragraph Operations Order that contains all essential items required to control, coordinate and support the tactical operation
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Key Points for Crisis Leadership
Crisis often destroys communicationsCrisis leaders must be technically
competent and understand their subordinates
Parallel between combat and crisis leadership
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Major Aspects of Crisis Leadership
FlexibilityInnovationSimplicity
Empowerment
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MURPHY’S LAW
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Planning and Decision Making are basic ingredients of leadership. More than anything else, the ability to make sound, timely decisions separates the leader from the non-leader. It is the responsibility of leaders to make high-quality decisions that are accepted and executed in a timely manner.
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Decision Making Defined
Tactical decision making is the ability to choose which solution or course of action would have the best probability to accomplish mission success.
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The decision-making process can be generalized in two categories:
1. Analytical decision-making approach
2. Intuitive decision-making approach
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Analytical Decision Making
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The analytical decision-making approach is used to analyze a situation or problem to determine the best solution. The leader or team apply a systematic process to insure effective decisions and plans.
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Analytical Decision Making (Benefits)
Carefully taking a problem apart
Collecting and testing the information required for the problem or task
Conducting a comparison of the solutions or options
Selecting an alternative, which should preferably be the best solution
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Analytical Decision Making (Challenges)
• Requires explicit instructions
• Requires detailed analysis
• Procedure based process
• Process oriented—can be separated from reality
• Requires multiple options
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• Comparison criteria are subject to change
• Focuses on optimal solution
• Limited opportunity for creativity
• Consumes time
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Analytical Decision Making Challenges(continued)
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Intuitive Decision Making
Intuitive decision making is a decision-making process that relies on experience to recognize key elements of a particular problem to arrive at an appropriate decision. The goal is to determine and implement the first solution that could result in success
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Intuitive Decision Making (Benefits)
Time effectiveFocuses on the first best solution
rather than the optimal solution Can be updated and infused with
additional experience constantly.
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Intuitive Decision Making (Challenges)
• Mismatched experience
• Obsolescence
• Distortion
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Comparative Criteria
Analytical Decision Making
Intuitive Decision Making
Applications Well-defined problem parameters
Ill-defined problem parameters
Variability General applications Dynamic applications
Source of Control Systematic application of process
Situational factors
Thought Processes Systematic analysis and
comparative
Creative and discriminating
Orientation Process oriented Goal oriented
Decision-Making Approach Comparison
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Comparative Criteria
Analytical Decision Making
Intuitive Decision Making
Foundations Clearly defined objectives Uncertainty
Knowledge
Requirements
Complete understanding of
problem
Incomplete understanding
Information
Requirements
Complete, researched, and derived
Incomplete and assessed
Goals Predetermined Situation-based
Desired Outcome Focuses on single best solution
Focuses on acceptable solution
Theoretical Basis Classical models and processes
Naturalistic (free) thinking
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Decision-Making Approach Comparison (continued)
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Definition of Planning
Planning is the process of determining and deciding how to achieve an objective or solve a problem. The plan is the guide or map providing the direction, resources, and activities necessary to attain the desired goal or end.
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8 Step Planning/Decision-Making Process
1. Identify the problem or objective
2. Gather information (facts/assumptions)
3. Develop courses of action (solutions)
4. Analyze and compare courses of action (Alternatives/solutions)
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5. Make a decision; select the best course of action
6. Make a plan
7. Implement a plan
8. Evaluate, follow-up, and change as necessary
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Course of Action Development
Mission Analysis
Receipt of Mission
Course of Action Analysis
Course of Action
Selection
Issue Operations Order
Rehearsal
Execution & Assessment
Commander's Estimates
Warning Order
Warning Order
Staff Estimates
TACTICAL PLANNING/DECISION MAKING MODEL
Warning Order
Warning Order
Warning Order
Warning Order
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1. Receive the Mission 2. Issue a Warning Order 3. Make a Tentative Plan 4. Initiate Movement 5. Reconnoiter 6. Complete the Plan 7. Issue the Complete Order
8. Supervise
Application of the Tactical Planning Procedures
The order of these steps does not change
Steps 4-7 are interchangeable.
Step 8 occurs throughout the process.
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Step 1: Receive the Mission
Analyze the mission:
What is the MISSION? (specified and implied tasks)
(who, what, where, when and why) What is known about the ENEMY, THREAT,
EMERGENCY, SITUATION, ETC? What is the impact of TERRAIN and WEATHER? What PERSONNEL and EQUIPMENT are available? How much TIME is available? What are the CIVILIAN considerations?
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Step 1: Receive the Mission (cont’d)
Time Analysis (1/3 – 2/3 Rule)
• Leader uses no more than 1/3 of available time for planning and issuing the Operations Order.
• Subordinates get 2/3 of available time to plan and prepare for operation (arrive at designated location and ready to deploy).
• Use backwards planning to schedule preparation time.
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Step 2: Issue a Warning Order
• Issue immediately after mission analysis• Do not sacrifice time to gain more info• At a minimum Warning Order should include:
– Mission or nature of the operation– Who is participating in the operation– Time of operation– Time and place for issuance of Operations
Order
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This enables the squads and other subordinate units to begin the parallel planning process
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Step 3: Make a Tentative Plan
Consider:
MISSION? (specified and implied tasks)ENEMY, THREAT, EMERGENCY,
SITUATION, ETC TERRAIN and WEATHERPERSONNEL and EQUIPMENT TIME (refine time if necessary)CIVIL CONSIDERATIONS (safety, traffic, etc.)
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Step 4: Start Necessary Movement
• May occur at any point in the Tactical Planning Process
• Includes movement to positions closer to the objective, initial inspections, equipment, etc.
• If the reconnaissance reveals a change in the situation, the plan must be adjusted accordingly.
The steps do not have to be accomplished in order
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Step 5: Conduct Reconnaissance
• Reconnaissance is used to confirm terrain and/or enemy analysis and tactical options
• Situation and time available dictate the type and detail of reconnaissance– Map, terrain model, aerial photo, ground
• Plan and conduct a leader’s reconnaissance for every mission.
• Consider risk of detection.
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Step 6: Complete the PlanDevelop Operations Order
• Tentative plan• Reconnaissance• Additional guidance
Review plan• Satisfy Commander’s mission and intent
Alter tentative plan?• Reconnaissance • Changes to current situation
Use five paragraph format
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Step 7: Issue the Complete Order
• Issue orally or written • Issue while observing the situational/objective
area if possible • Supplements to Operations Orders:
– Terrain models– Sand Table – Map boards/Overlays – Sketches
• All subordinates MUST understand the plan– Use briefbacks
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Step 8: Supervise - Rehearsals
• Must be habitual during training in order to effectively employ units tactically.
• Clarifies Commander’s intent.• Reinforces scheme of maneuver.• Ensures understanding and instills confidence
in participants.• Provides feedback and exposes problems in the
plan.
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Step 8: Supervise - Inspections
Pre-Operational Inspections Weapons and ammo: test fire Uniforms and equipment Mission Essential Equipment Personnel understanding of mission and their
specific responsibilities Communications: radios, frequencies,
batteries, pyrotechnics, etc. Rations and water Vehicles and fuel
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The ProcessTactical Planning
Procedures
1. Receive and Analyze the Mission
2. Issue a Warning Order
3. Make a Tentative Plan
4. Initiate Movement
5. Conduct Reconnaissance
6. Complete the Plan
7. Issue the Order
8. Supervise & Refine
Decision Making Process
Mission Analysis • Mission • Enemy • Terrain (and Weather) • Personnel/Equipment • Time Available
Develop Courses of Action
Analyze Courses of Action
Compare Courses of Action
Select BEST Course of Action
• Refinement of plan• Integration of operational support and logistics
Situation Visualization
“See the Terrain”
“See the Threat”
“See Yourself”
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TACTICAL PLANNING CHALLENGES
Determine specified, implied, and essential tasks
Manage available time
Delegate during planning and preparation
Analyze courses of action and make decisions
Brief WARNING ORDER and OPERATIONS ORDER
Conduct rehearsals and inspections
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Operations Order Format
Task Organization (if necessary) – internal attachments, detachments, ad-hoc teams
Paragraph 1. Situation
Paragraph 2. Mission
Paragraph 3. Execution
Paragraph 4. Support/Logistics
Paragraph 5. Command and Communications
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Operations Order Format (cont’d)
1. Situation
Situation – crime, emergency situation, problem, etc.
Intelligence – all information available on the activity (or facts and assumptions), terrain, weather, visibility, hazards, obstacles, etc.
External Units Involved – tactical, support, reinforcing, attachments, detachments, higher headquarters; units on right, left, etc.
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2. Mission
Clear, concise statement of what you want to achieve.
State the essential task or tasks to be accomplished by the entire unit, to include on-order missions. The who, what, when, where, and why for unit.
Clearly define the unit’s objective.
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Operations Order Format (cont’d)
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Operations Order Format (cont’d)
3. Execution
Concept of operation – summary of overall course of action
Movement instructions Specific tasks to elements or individuals
• Maneuver • Support
Coordination instructions/activities – timelines, effective times, control measures, required contact with other units.
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Operations Order Format (cont’d)
4. Support/Logistics
Specific instructions for logistical needs
– General– Material and Services
• Supply• Transportation• Services• Maintenance• Medical
– Personnel– Miscellaneous
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Operations Order Format (cont’d)
5. Command and Communications
Establishes chain of command
Establishes radio/telephone operating procedures
Establishes special signals and codes
Establishes additional reporting or administrative requirements
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Operations Order: A Basic Outline
Task Organization (if necessary)1. Situation
– Situation Background– Intelligence– Operational Information– External Units
2. Mission 3. Execution
– Concept of the Operation• Movement• Maneuver• Support
– Tasks to Maneuver Units– Tasks to Support Units– Coordinating Instructions
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4. Support/Logistics– General– Material and Services
• Supply• Transportation• Services• Maintenance• Medical • Personnel
– Miscellaneous5. Command & Communications
– Command– Communications– Signals/Codes
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Elements of Good Plan
1. Establishes objective: provides for accomplishment of task
2. It is based upon facts and valid assumptions: all pertinent data has been considered
3. Provides for optimum effective use of existing resources
4. Provides organizational structure
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5. Provides for required additional resources
6. It is effectively communicated to, and understood by every worker involved in executing the plan
7. Provides for decentralization: delegation of authority
8. Provides for direct control: coordination between units
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9. It is simple: it reduces all elements to the simplest form
10. It is flexible: there is room for adjustment
11. It provides for control
12. It is coordinated
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PRACTICAL
EXERCISE
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Questions???
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