POLAND WIND MARKET

Outlook 2013 ÷ 2018

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POLAND WIND MARKET: OUTLOOK 2013 ÷ 2018

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This market report offers an incisive and reliable overview of the wind sector of the country

for the period 2013 ÷ 2018. In view of recent cuts in FIT’s announced in Germany, Spain,

France, UK, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Italy, Poland represents a stable

investment environment in Central-East Europe with clear rules and green certificates

support scheme. Current cumulative installed wind capacity in the country is growing fast

and Poland is one of the best performers amongst CEE countries for 2011 and 2012. Polish

market has good chances to reach more than 3,000 MW in the next 2 years. The report

provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues and future

prospects. You will find more than 60 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth

analysis of the Polish wind market. With comprehensive market data this report brings

clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decision making process. As 2011 and

2012 were challenging years for wind industry, the time for taking right decisions during

2013 and the next few years is limited. Fast changing market environment, requires

relevant and accurate information. For your convenience we offer opportunity for orders

with customized report content. Reasons to buy this market report are, but no limited to:

Brief overview of the Polish political and economic environment Wind resource potential in Poland Overview of Polish wind market development 2000 ÷ 2018 Grid connected wind installations for 2012/2013 Future market trends and planned wind projects for 2013 ÷ 2018 Current market prices of fully permitted and operational wind projects Polish legal and energy regulatory framework for renewable projects Key companies and competitive landscape in wind sector Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives SWOT Analysis

At next pages you will see the full table of content of this report. To order the report

just fill in and send us the enclosed at the last page order form. If you have any other

questions please do not hesitate to call us on ++359 887 342 475 or write an e-mail to

orders@ineaconsulting.eu

POLAND WIND MARKET: OUTLOOK 2013 ÷ 2018

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS ......................................................................................................... 4

FOREWORD ...................................................................................................................... 7

1 Methodology and limitations .................................................................................. 9

Methodology ............................................................................................................... 9 1.1 Limitations ................................................................................................................. 10 1.2

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................... 11

3 POLISH POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ............................................... 14

Basic country data ..................................................................................................... 14 3.1 Government structure, political climate and ruling party......................................... 17 3.2 GDP and Economic Growth ....................................................................................... 19 3.3 Electricity Imports And Exports. Electricity Prices For Business And Huoseholds .... 22 3.4 Taxes .......................................................................................................................... 24 3.5

3.5.1 VAT ......................................................................................................................... 24 3.5.2 Income and Corporate Taxes ................................................................................. 24

4 POLAND WIND ENERGY MARKET ........................................................................... 25

General electricity market information ..................................................................... 25 4.14.1.1 Electricity consumption and production ............................................................... 26 4.1.2 RES targets ............................................................................................................. 27 Why invest in wind energy in Poland? ...................................................................... 29 4.2 Polish wind resource potential .................................................................................. 30 4.3 Overview of Poland wind market .............................................................................. 32 4.4 Market prices for wind projects in Poland ................................................................ 35 4.5 Key development wind projects in Poland ................................................................ 35 4.6

5 EUROPEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE ............................................ 38

RES REGULATIONS AND EU DIRECTIVES .................................................................... 38 5.15.1.1 Precedent EU regulations ...................................................................................... 38 5.1.2 Most recent EU renewable energy policy developments...................................... 39

6 POLAND RES LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK ............................................ 40

Main laws and regulations ......................................................................................... 40 6.1 Applicability of the promotion system ...................................................................... 41 6.2 Trading green certificates .......................................................................................... 41 6.3 Fulfilling annual mandatory quota of green certificates ........................................... 42 6.4 Zoning, planning and construction related authorizations ....................................... 43 6.5 Environmental related authorizations....................................................................... 43 6.6

6.6.1 Natura 2000 Network ............................................................................................ 43 6.6.2 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) ................ 44 Energy law authorizations ......................................................................................... 45 6.7

6.7.1 Power Generation Licensing .................................................................................. 45

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6.7.2 Grid Interconnection .............................................................................................. 45 6.7.3 Power Off-Take ....................................................................................................... 46 6.7.4 Green certificates (certificates of origin) and purchase price of electricity ........... 47 Key Co-Financing Opportunities ................................................................................. 50 6.8

6.8.1 Poland Sustainable Energy Financing Facility (PolSEFF) ......................................... 50 6.8.2 National Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Management (NFEP&WM) ....................................................................................................................... 54

7 KEY ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS ..............................................................56

Government ............................................................................................................... 56 7.17.1.1 The Ministry of Economy (MoE) ............................................................................. 56 7.1.2 Poland’s Energy Regulatory Office (ERO) ............................................................... 56 7.1.3 Ministry of Environment (MoENV) ......................................................................... 56 7.1.4 Ministry of Finance (MoF) ...................................................................................... 57 7.1.5 Polish Power Exchange (POLPX) ............................................................................. 57 7.1.6 Polish Transmission System Operator (TSO) .......................................................... 57 7.1.7 Polish National Conservation Agency (KAPE) ......................................................... 59 ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND ELECTRICITY DISTRIBUTION COMPANIES ............... 59 7.2

7.2.1 PGE - Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A. .................................................................... 61 7.2.2 Tauron Polska Energia S.A. ..................................................................................... 64 7.2.3 ENEA S.A. ................................................................................................................ 65 7.2.4 RWE ......................................................................................................................... 67 7.2.5 ENERGA S.A. ............................................................................................................ 67 Key wind companies operating on POLISH market .................................................... 68 7.3

8 SWOT ANALYSIS ....................................................................................................70

9 CONCLUSIONS .......................................................................................................73

10 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................75

11 REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................77

12 DISCLAIMER ...........................................................................................................79

APPENDIX I. WIND MAPS OF EUROPE AND POLAND .........................................................81

LIST OF MAPS, CHARTS AND TABLES

Map 1: Where is Poland on the European map........................................................................ 14 MAP 2: Polish Road Map ........................................................................................................... 15 MAP 3: Poland regions administrative map ............................................................................. 18 Map 4: Wind irradiation and wind electricity potential for optimally inclined wind modules in Poland, JRC WINDGIS 2008 .................................................................................... 31 MAP 5: Natura 2000 areas in Poland ........................................................................................ 44

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MAP 6: Plan of high voltage grids (> 110 KW) in Poland (2010) .............................................. 58 Map 7: Wind irradiation and wind electricity potential for horizontally mounted wind modules in Poland, JRC WINDGIS 2008.................................................................................... 81 Map 8: Wind irradiation and wind electricity potential for horizontally mounted wind modules in Poland, GeoModel Wind s.r.o. 2011 ..................................................................... 82 Map 9: Wind irradiation and wind electricity potential for optimally inclined wind modules in Europe, JRC WINDGIS 2008 ................................................................................... 83

Chart 1: Real GDP growth for the period 2000-2018 (including estimates) ............................ 20 Chart 2: Poland’s GDP growth compared to EU-27 for the period 2002-2018 ....................... 21 Chart 3: Electricity imports and exports for the period 2000-2018 (in GWh) ......................... 23 Chart 4: Structure of Polish electricity market ......................................................................... 26 Chart 5: Share of renewables in gross final consumption of electricity 2011 ......................... 26 Chart 6: Poland RES targets for 2020 in % according to NREAP .............................................. 28 Chart 7: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Poland in MWp from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ........................................................................................................ 36 Chart 8: PolSEFF structure ........................................................................................................ 51 Chart 9: Organization structure of PGE .................................................................................... 62

Table 1: Electricity prices for business and households ........................................................... 23 Table 2: Support schemes for RES generation in the EU countries ......................................... 29 Table 3: Correction factor in GC's for WIND systems in Poland in new draft RES law ............ 34 Table 4: Market prices for wind projects in Poland for 2012 .................................................. 35 Table 5: Proposed green certificates for electricity from renewable sources in Poland in new draft RES law .................................................................................................................... 49 Table 6: Proposed feed-in tariffs (FIT) for electricity from renewable sources in Poland in new draft RES law ..................................................................................................................... 50

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