PointView presentation for GridWeek 2012 by Erik Gilbert€¦ · ENERGY Pacific Northwest Smart...

E N E R G Y

Pacific Northwest Smart GridRegional Business Case (RBC)

Benefit-Cost ModelA System-of-Systems Approach to Understanding Value

B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

10/5/2012

Lee Hall, Smart Grid Program Manager, BPA; Erik Gilbert, Director, Navigant.

A System-of-Systems Approach to Understanding Value GridWeek 2012

GridWeek 2012

BPA Smart Grid Regional Business Case Update

Why a Regional Business Case (RBC) for Smart Grid?

The smart grid promises many benefits for the region, including:

» Better reliability» Lower rates» Environmental stewardship» More accountability to regional stakeholders

But, benefits are uncertain and stakeholders are inexperiencedwith emerging technologies and new types of investments.

1©2012 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy. E N E R G Y

Source: “NIST Framework and Roadmap for Smart Grid Interoperability Standards Release 1.0 (Draft),” Office of the National Coordinator for Smart Grid Interoperability, NIST (September 2009).

What can BPA do in its role as a regional steward to help stakeholders understand and minimize risks, while facilitating the benefits expected from the smart grid?

BPA is developing the RBC to:» Understand the potential for smart grid benefits» Understand the risks for regional stakeholders» Assist Regional stakeholders by providing information to

help make appropriate investments in smart technologies.

GridWeek 2012

Path Forward

Increasing Granularity and Reduced Uncertainty


RBC phases: moving from a top-down, conceptual analysis to a robust, bottom-up model

iRBC

Preliminary, top-down analysis used to frame the issues and the range of costs and benefits. iRBC =

RBC Framework

Structured bottom-up framework allows incorpora-tion of data from PNW Demo Project and other sources to

RBC Phase I.a

Bottom-up computational model with results in selected functional areas.

RBC Phase I.b

Input develop-ment for range of asset systems and functions. Updated bottom-up analysis with evaluation of

RBC Phases II&III

Incorporate results from the PNW Demo Project and other sources. RBC update(s) using best available data from


benefits. iRBC = introductory Regional Business Case.

and other sources to better understand uncertainties and asset impacts

with evaluation of assets and uncertainties.

available data from current experiments and studies.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-2015

iRBC:8 benefit categories

ACEEE Update:6 benefit categories

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74

1 Cong

estio

n M

etric

s

Softw

are &

Syst

ems

Cost

2 T&D Op timiz ation X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X3 Autom at ed Volt age and VA R Contr ol X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X4 Conse rvation Volt age Re duct ion (CV R) X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X5 Dynamic Capacity Rating X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

6 Power Flow Contro l & Real Time Load Transfer X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X7 Improved T&D Line Ef fici ency X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X8 Infras tructur e Lif e Ext ension f rom Equipme nt Condit ion Diagnos is & Pr eventive Maint enance X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X9 Phase Balancing X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

11 Wide Ar ea M onitor ing & Vis ualizat ion X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X1213 End Use Energy Effic iency X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X14 End U se Con ser vat ion from A utomat ed Consu mption Optimization X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X15 End U se Con ser vat ion from Be havior Change X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X16 Enh an ced EE Program Market ing & Implem entation of Ef ficient End Us e Te chnol ogy X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

17 Enh an ced EE Program Meas ureme nt & Evaluation X X X X X X X X X X18 Improved Equipme nt Efficiency f rom Cond ition Diagnos is & Maintenen ce X X X X X X X X X X X X X X1920 End Use Energy Reliability X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X21 Autom at ed Islandi ng and Reconnection ( Micr o-G rid Capability) X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X22 Enh an ced An cillary Services f rom Electric Vehic le Charging X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

23 Enh an ced An cillary Services f rom Statio nar y Ener gy Sto rage X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X24 Enh an ced Fault Locati on, Isolat ion & Service Rest oratio n X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X25 Enh an ced Fault Pre ve ntion X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X26 Reduced Out ages from Equi pment Cond ition Diagnos is & Prevent ive M ain tenence X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X27

28 Dynamic & Re spons ive Demand X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X29 Demand Res ponse from Opt- In Utilit y C ontrol led Reduction Events (Dir ect Load Contr ol) X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X30 Demand Res ponse from Electr ic Veh icle Charging X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X31 Demand Res ponse from Opt- In Cust omer Con trolled Re duct ion Eve nts X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X32 Demand Res ponse from V ar iable Pricing X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X33 Load Shift ing f rom Statio nar y Ene rgy Sto rage X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

3536 Renewable & Dis trib uted Syst ems Int egration X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X37 Centralized Gen eration - Re newable X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X38 ? Dis tribut ed Gener ation - N on-Ren ewab le X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X39 Dis tribut ed Gener ation - Rene wable X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X40

41 Utility Operation al Eff icie ncy X X X X X X X X X X X X X X42 Autom at ed Meter Oper ating Savings X X X X X X X X X X X X X43 Utilit y Pr oce ss I mprovemen t X X X X X X X X X X X44

BENEFIT CATEG ORY / FUNCTION Ener

gy M

anag

emen

t Sys

tem

(EM

S) - C

omm

ercia

l & In

dustr

ial

Reclo

sers

/ Au

to-S

ectio

naliz

ing S

witc

hes

Valu

e of R

educ

ed C

onge

stio

n

Two-

way

Com

mun

icatio

ns In

frast

ructu

re (H

igh B

andw

idth

)

ASSE

T

Cust

omer

Con

sum

ptio

n Disp

lay/P

orta

l

End

Use R

emot

ely C

ontro

lled

Inte

rrupt

er/S

witc

h

Ener

gy M

anag

emen

t Sys

tem

(EM

S) - R

esid

entia

l

Hom

e Ar

ea N

etw

ork

Oth

er D

istrib

uted

Gen

erat

ion (N

G, LN

G, Fu

el C

ell, P

ropa

ne, D

eisel)

Adva

nced

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er In

frast

ructu

re (A

MI)

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art M

eter

s

Disp

atch

able/

Auto

mat

ed Ca

pacit

or B

anks

Smar

t App

lianc

es an

d Eq

uipm

ent

Smar

t The

rmos

tat

End

Use E

quipm

ent S

enso

rs (e

.g.,

Equi

pmen

t Hea

lth, C

onsu

mpt

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tc.)

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tric V

ehicl

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V) /

Plug

in H

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(PH

EV)

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wabl

e Dis

tribu

ted

Gene

ratio

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lar, H

ydro

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ion

Man

agem

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yste

m

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Curr

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imite

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Mon

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vice

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ata

Man

agem

ent S

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m (M

DM

S)

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nced

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sfor

mer

s (e.g

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p Co

ntro

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TUs,

etc.)

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ribut

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orag

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atte

ries,

Flyw

heel

s, et

c.)

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nten

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Cost Data

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sts

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ed E

miss

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Impact Valuation D at a

Unit

Equi

pmen

t Cos

ts

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allat

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& In

tegr

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ased

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and

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ry Se

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s

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e of A

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pans

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tricit

y Con

sum

ption

(e.g

., Sub

stat

ion, F

eede

r, Cu

stom

er, e

tc.)

(kW

h per

inte

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omer,

etc

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ratio

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0 - 1

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nera

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Dist

ribut

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erat

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tricit

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ft (a

nnua

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(e.g.

, Gen

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cula

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Pow

er Q

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Indi

cies &

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rics

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bilit

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s (e.

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DI, S

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Tran

smis

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Dist

ribus

tion L

ine L

oads

(e.g

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bsta

tions

, Fee

ders

, etc

.) (M

W p

eak,

MW

load

pro

file)

Tran

smis

sion &

Dist

ribut

ion

Over

load

Eve

nts (

e.g.,

Sub

stati

ons,

Feed

ers, e

tc.)(

qty,

loca

tion)

Ot herCustom er DG Dis tr ibution Transmis sion

Fault

Indi

catio

n Te

chno

logy

Out

age

Man

agem

ent S

yste

m

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cle to

Grid

Infr

astr

ucut

re -

2 W

ay F

low

Auto

mat

ed V

olta

ge R

egula

tor

Mic

rogr

id Co

ntro

llers

& Te

chno

logi

es

Phas

e An

gle R

egul

atin

g Tra

nsfo

rmer

Cont

rolla

ble/

Regu

latin

g Inv

erte

r

Equi

pmen

t Hea

lth Se

nsor

(Dist

ribut

ion)

Adva

nced

Visu

aliza

tion &

Ana

lysis

Softw

are

(Dist

ribut

ion)

Flex

ible

AC T

rans

miss

ion S

yste

m (F

ACTS

) Dev

ices

Tran

smis

sion S

enso

rs (P

haso

r Mea

sure

men

t, Sy

nchr

opha

sor,

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pera

ture

, Loa

d)

Very

Low

Impe

denc

e (V

LI) o

r Hi

gh T

emp

Supe

rcond

uctiv

ity (H

TS) c

ables

Defe

rred

Cap

acity

Expa

nsio

n (Ge

nera

tion,

Tra

nsm

ission

and

Dist

ribut

ion)

Tran

smis

sion &

Dist

ribut

ion

Line

Loss

es (%

, ann

ual k

Wh)

Equi

pmen

t Hea

lth Se

nsor

(Tra

nsm

issio

n)

Adva

nced

Visu

aliza

tion &

Ana

lysis

Softw

are

(Tran

smiss

ion)

DAT

A

Ope

ratio

ns &

Main

tena

nce

Requ

irem

ents

T&D

Equi

pmen

t Fai

lures

Tran

sact

ive C

ontro

l Sys

tem

Inte

grat

ed U

tility

IT Sy

stem

(IT

hard

ware

, sof

twar

e)

Cent

ral S

torag

e (e

.g., B

atte

ries,

Flyw

heel

s, et

c.)

Varia

ble R

ate S

truc

ture

Oth

er

Relational Model:Benefits mapping to assets

and data requirements

Deployment Model:Based on Smart

Grid Maturity Model

Research

Data Processing &Normalization

Model Output

Deployment Asset Systems

Stakeholders• Generation • Transmission• Distribution• Customer• Society• Environment

Interactions

Assets

Functions

Impacts

Costs ($)

Benefits ($)

ScenarioAnalysis

Uncertainty & Risk

Sensitivity Analysis

Input Development Computational Model Software DevelopmentScenario Development& Analyses

Computational Model:Bottom-up approach to estimate costs & benefits

Computational Model

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1. Transactive Control 2. Reliability 3. Conservation & EE 4. Social

RBC Inputs(e.g., expected re duction in consumption and variance )

Test Case Results(e .g., annual % reduction in energy consumption )

Test Case Metrics (e .g., avg. monthly residential custome r usage)

Test Case Data(e .g., 15 minute inte rval meter data)

BPA/NavigantPhase II Input De velopment

BattelleDOE Impact Metric Development

Owner – TBDTest C ase Analysis & Results Development

Sub-Project: Avista

Sub-Project: PGE

Sub-Project: UW

Behavior DR Auto DR FLISR Prev. Maint. Behavior EE Auto EE Uptake

RBC Function Impacts

Demonstration Results:Integrating results from the PNW demonstration project

Bottom-Up RBC:Early granular analysis of

smart grid investment

GridWeek 2012


The RBC Framework comprises 3 models

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74Cost DataImpact Valuation DataImpact DataOtherCustomer DG Distribution Transmission

Deployment Model

Asset-to-Function Relational Model

Computational Model


1 Cong

estio

n M

etric

s

Soft

war

e &

Sys

tem

s Cos

t

2 T&D Optimization X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X3 Automated Voltage and VAR Control X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X4 Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X5 Dynamic Capacity Rating X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X6 Power Flow Control & Real Time Load Transfer X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X7 Improved T&D Line Efficiency X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X8 Infrastructure Life Extension from Equipment Condition Diagnosis & Preventive Maintenance X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X9 Phase Balancing X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

11 Wide Area Monitoring & Visualization X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X1213 End Use Energy Efficiency X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X14 End Use Conservation from Automated Consumption Optimization X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X15 End Use Conservation from Behavior Change X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X16 Enhanced EE Program Marketing & Implementation of Efficient End Use Technology X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X17 Enhanced EE Program Measurement & Evaluation X X X X X X X X X X18 Improved Equipment Efficiency from Condition Diagnosis & Maintenence X X X X X X X X X X X X X X1920 End Use Energy Reliability X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X21 Automated Islanding and Reconnection (Micro-Grid Capability) X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X22 Enhanced Ancillary Services from Electric Vehicle Charging X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X23 Enhanced Ancillary Services from Stationary Energy Storage X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X24 Enhanced Fault Location, Isolation & Service Restoration X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X25 Enhanced Fault Prevention X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X26 Reduced Outages from Equipment Condition Diagnosis & Preventive Maintenence X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X2728 Dynamic & Responsive Demand X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X29 Demand Response from Opt-In Utility Controlled Reduction Events (Direct Load Control) X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X30 Demand Response from Electric Vehicle Charging X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X31 Demand Response from Opt-In Customer Controlled Reduction Events X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X32 Demand Response from Variable Pricing X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X33 Load Shifting from Stationary Energy Storage X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X3536 Renewable & Distributed Systems Integration X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X37 Centralized Generation - Renewable X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X38 ? Distributed Generation - Non-Renewable X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X39 Distributed Generation - Renewable X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X4041 Utility Operational Efficiency X X X X X X X X X X X X X X42 Automated Meter Operating Savings X X X X X X X X X X X X X43 Utility Process Improvement X X X X X X X X X X X44

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GridWeek 2012

• Considers over 80 types of equipment, 60 asset systems, and 30 ways the grid can be impacted. But, easy to expand to new types of equipment, systems and functions.

• Assessment of costs and realization of benefits is based on 151 actual grid characteristics.• A bottom-up approach that makes use of smart grid demonstration, experiment, and

implementation results, rather than making broad assumptions about costs and benefits.• Presents costs and benefits for different stakeholder groups to identify possible

misalignments.• Addresses cost-sharing relationships where certain platform systems help enable future

Overview of Computational Model attributes

RBC Update ›› RBC Model Overview


• Addresses cost-sharing relationships where certain platform systems help enable future capabilities.

• An integrated uncertainty analysis that characterizes parameter uncertainty and forecast uncertainty.

• A scenario analysis for deployment and other major directional outcomes.• A data maturity system that indicates the state of the available data used to estimate

results. • Uses foundational framework for understanding and modeling the way that grid

modernization investments enable new capabilities, create beneficial impacts, and interact with other investments.

GridWeek 2012


» Result of five standard benefit/cost tests (TRC, Societal, Utility, Ratepayer, and Participant cost test), by asset system or function

» Costs (NPV and cash flow)

» Smart-grid function deployment schedule

» Equipment required for each smart-grid asset system

» Forecast technology cost and cost-

Key Input Key Output

INPUT/OUTPUT: Smart-Grid function deployment, assets required, asset and system costs, and impact estimates (all probabilistic) are input to estimate total benefits, costs and B/C ratios for SG functions.


» Costs (NPV and cash flow) summarized by asset system or totaled across entire smart portfolio

» Benefits (e.g., avoided energy, reduced outage costs, reduced renewable integration costs, etc.) by asset system (NPV and cash flow)

» All results include probability distributions, probability bands, and Best Case/Worst Case/Expected values.

» Forecast technology cost and cost-reduction profile

» Energy and demand savings by asset system

» Other metrics (e.g., reduction in outage frequency, increased renewable energy capacity factor) related to smart grid functions

» Utility avoided costs and program administration costs

GridWeek 2012

Comparison to other widely recognized benefit-cost efforts


Area RBC Model EPRI Assessment DOE Computational Tool

Scope Region-wide benefit-cost analysis for Pacific Northwest

National assessment focusing on costs with high-level benefits

Utility project specific benefit-cost analysis

Sponsor BPA: to fulfill roles in PNW-SGDP and as Regional Steward

EPRI: to assess national costs and benefits

DOE: to assess SGIG/SGDP program efforts

UseModel (what-if): region-wideassessment using flexibledeployment scenarios covering many technologies

Paper (published report): fixed,estimated range of investment and costs, averaged nationwide, covering many technologies

Model:* guided input flow, assessment of single project rollout, covering many technologies

Methodology-Leverages DOE Smart Grid EPRI Framework** along with DOE Smart Grid Benefit-Cost


Methodology-Framework

Leverages DOE Smart Grid Benefit-Cost Framework, and EPRI Framework** but modified to meet Regional needs

EPRI Framework** along with additional analysis and assumptions***

DOE Smart Grid Benefit-Cost Framework (roots in RDSI** and earlier efforts)

InputsPNW-SGDP test results and a wide range of other sources including 3rd party published documents

EPRI estimates and assumptions as well as 3rd party published documents

1-5 years of measured project data

Outputs6 broad benefit categories, focused on grid and utilities. Drill down on great deal of detail is possible

9 broad benefits categories, including grid focused as well as safety, quality of life and productivity

4 broad benefit categories, and multiple sub-categories according to DOE Framework

PlatformAnalyticaTM—with built-in uncertainty analysis, and graphical outputs

PDF Document—with supporting assumptions and detail

MS ExcelTM—with built-in user process interface and graphical outputs

*http://www.smartgrid.gov/recovery_act/program_impacts/computational_tool **Methodological Approach for Estimating the Benefits and Costs of Smart Grid Demonstration Projects. EPRI, January, 2010. ***Estimating the Costs and Benefits of the Smart Grid: A Preliminary Estimate of the Investment Requirements and the Resultant Benefits of a Fully Functioning SmartGrid; EPRI; 2011.

GridWeek 2012


Computational Model Smart Grid Function implementation statusFunction Category Function

T&D Optimization

Automated VAR ControlConservation Voltage Reduction (CVR)1

Dynamic Capacity Rating2

Automated Power Flow Control for TransmissionAutomated Real Time Load Transfer for DistributionNotification of Distribution Equipment ConditionNotification of Transmission Equipment ConditionFault Current Limiting for DistributionFault Current Limiting for TransmissionDistributed Energy Resource Monitoring & ControlPMU-Based Centralized Renewable Resource Monitoring & Control2

Grid Reliability

PMU-Based Wide Area Monitoring2

Automated Islanding & Reconnection (Microgrid Capability)Enhanced Fault Prevention for DistributionEnhanced Fault Prevention for Transmission

1 Phase 1a CVR asset

Function KeyVetted2013 FocusInitialPending


Enhanced Fault Prevention for TransmissionFault Location, Isolation & Service Restoration (FLISR)

Dynamic & Response Demand

Demand Response - Air Conditioning/Space CoolingDemand Response - Appliances & Plug LoadsDemand Response - LightingDemand Response - Refrigeration, Motors & Process EquipmentDemand Response - Space HeatingDemand Response - Water Heating

End Use Energy Efficiency

End Use ConservationEnd Use Equipment Efficiency UpgradeNotification of End Use Equipment Condition - HVACNotification of End Use Equipment Condition - Refrigeration

Grid Storage Integration &

Control

Transmission-Sited Grid Storage Integration & ControlDistribution-Sited Grid Storage Integration & ControlElectric Vehicle Battery Integration & Control

Utility Operational Efficiency

Automated AMI Meter Reading & BillingImproved DSM Program Execution (Marketing, Implementation, M&V)Improved Regional Planning & Forecasting

1 Phase 1a CVR asset systems included Static CVR and Voltage Optimized CVR. Asset system for dispatchable CVR added in Phase 1b.

2 Currently included as a PMU-based function. Later analyses may also assess other technologies that enable this function.

GridWeek 2012

RBC Functions ID BC*Automated VAR Control 1

T&D

Opt

imiz

atio

nConservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) 2Dynamic Capacity Rating 3Automated Power Flow Control for Transmission 4Automated Real Time Load Transfer for Distribution 5Notification of T&D Equipment Condition 6-7Fault Current Limiting for T&D 8-9Distributed Energy Resource Monitoring & Control 10Centralized Renewable Resource Monitoring & Control 11Wide Area Monitoring 12

Gri

d R

elia

bilit

y

Automated Islanding & Reconnection (Microgrid) 13Enhanced Fault Prevention for T&D 14-15Fault Location, Isolation & Service Restoration (FLISR) 16Demand Response - Air Conditioning/Space Cooling 17

Dyn

amic

&

Res

pons

ive

Dem

andDemand Response - Appliances & Plug Loads 18

PNW Demonstration Project Test Case data used as Inputs to RBC Model

Smart Grid Benefit-Cost Model ›› Input Coordination

ID PNW SGDP Responsive Asset Types# of Test

Cases1 Advanced Sensors / Meters 102 Energy Storage 73 Distributed Generator 54 Distributed Renewable Energy Resource 145 Distribution Automation / Reconfiguration 56 Load Management / Control 247 Meter Data Management System 68 Microgrid Management / Control 3


Dyn

amic

&

Res

pons

ive

Dem

andDemand Response - Appliances & Plug Loads 18

Demand Response - Lighting 19Demand Response - Refrigeration, Motors, & Process 20Demand Response - Space Heating 21Demand Response - Water Heating 22End Use Conservation 23

End

Use

EEEnd Use Equipment Efficiency Upgrade 24

Notification of End Use Equipment Condition 25-26Transmission-Sited Grid Storage Integration & Control 27

Gri

d St

orag

e

Distribution-Sited Grid Storage Integration & Control 28Electric Vehicle Battery Integration & Control 29Automated AMI Meter Reading & Billing 30

Util

ity

Op.

Eff.

Improved DSM Program Execution (M&V, etc.) 31Improved Regional Planning & Forecasting 32

8 Microgrid Management / Control 39 Power Factor Control 2

10 Voltage Control / Optimization 16From Table 1.2 (p. 1.6) of PNW SGDP Metrics & Benefits Reporting Plan

* BC = Benefit Categories

GridWeek 2012


The Computational Model will accommodate input from a variety of sources.

Benefits

PNW - SGDP (Metrics & Work

Products: Regional Opp-

ortunities, CBA) NPCC 6th

Power Plan Other

» Data sources will improve and become refined as the understanding of inputs evolves. As new studies become available, uncertainty bands will narrow.

» Data must be aggregated, analyzed, and linked to functions to estimate benefits.


Computational Model

Functions

Data Requirements (i.e., aggregated metrics)

Metrics (i.e., aggregated data: peak reduction, energy

saved, reliability metrics)

Raw Data

RBC

Power Plan (Demand/Price

Forecast, Penetration Rates, etc.)

Other BPA

Studies (Xmission, EE)National

Labs Studies

(PNNL, LBNL, NREL, Oak

Ridge)

Other Sources

(EPRI, GridWise, etc.)

Other ARRA

Projects

Regional Business Case

GridWeek 2012

BPA Smart Grid Regional Business Case Update ›› Initial Model Results › CVR/PMU

Example of broad Regional deployment over a number of years. CVR and PMU deployment scenarios reviewed with BPA stakeholders, and adjusted.

Note: CVR function deployment represents % of *total* feeders in the region , not just CVR capable feeders.

PMU function deployment represents % of total substations and wind farm


interconnections.

GridWeek 2012


Preliminary Results: The B/C ratios are well above 1.0 in the Expected Case for each Function.

CVR Function


Note: Avoided Widespread Outages has, by far, the biggest B/C ratio in the best case; however, in the worst case there is no benefit at all (in this 5th percentile case, no outages were avoided.)

3 PMU based Functions

GridWeek 2012


Preliminary Results: Benefits outweigh the costs in the Expected Case for all four Functions.

12©2012 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy. E N E R G Y GridWeek 2012

BPA Smart Grid Regional Business Case Update ›› Initial Model Results › CVR

Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) benefits include avoided energy costs and avoided demand costs.

CVR Benefits

• Avoided Energy Costs• Including reductions in line losses and no load

losses

• Avoided Demand Costs

CVR Costs

• Load Tap Changer Controllers

• Voltage Regulators

• Voltage Regulator Controller/Sensor


• Avoided Demand Costs____________________________________

› Avoided costs are calculated using an estimated fractional reduction in energy/demand due to CVR.

› Reduction in energy/demand is multiplied by avoided cost of energy/demand (e.g., $/MWh, $/MW-yr) to calculate total avoided costs.

• Distribution Management System

• Software Application

• 2-way Comm Infrastructure (Meters/Distribution)

• Startup and Recurring Costs (Overhead/Operations/Contracting)

GridWeek 2012

• What and how many assets deployed• Annual costs and benefits (and NPV)• Installation, integration, and M&O costs• Costs by individual assets

– E.g, how much has been spent on AMI– How much per year on CVR, etc.

Deployment and cost factors for each Asset System can be examined—or the combined costs and impacts can be examined




Equipment costs represent the majority of costs, with operations and maintenance ultimately equaling annual equipment costs in the later years.

Existing applicable assets depleted, new assets required.


Smart Grid Benefit-Cost Model ›› Review of Recent Work

Preliminary estimated total benefits and cost for regional CVR deployment (present value)


RBC Update ›› Initial Model Results › CVR/PMU

CVR breakout by stakeholder categories shows the distribution utilities bear the costs, while the benefits are spread across stakeholder groups.

Avoided energy (fuel, O&M, and

line losses)


Avoided capacity costs

GridWeek 2012

RBC Update ›› Project Background

Summary of rationale for this effort

• BPA motivated to use an approach that is more related to what utilities in the region are actually doing⁻ Use actual utility and grid inputs – to provide something of more value to utility

customers and others in the Region⁻ Leverage learnings from the Pacific Northwest Smart Grid Demonstration Project

(PNW-SGDP) as key inputs to the analysis⁻ Directly relate investment in actual types of assets to the grid related impacts and

benefits⁻ Allow aggregation of results across many smart grid Functions, and across the region


⁻ Allow aggregation of results across many smart grid Functions, and across the region⁻ Avoid double counting of benefits, and take a reasonable, slightly conservative

approach⁻ Approach allows the analysis to be refined as new results become available, along

with input from stakeholders and review from subject matter experts

⁻ Will help reduce investment uncertainties and provide a clearer picture⁻ Sort out promising, deployment scale approaches from less promising ones⁻ Is not (yet) a toolkit for utility specific business case development⁻ But, the underlying framework and model structure can be adapted for that, if

desired.

GridWeek 2012

KeyC O N T A C T S KeyC O N T A C T S KeyC O N T A C T S KeyC O N T A C T S

Lee Hall,Smart Grid Program Manager

Bonneville Power AdministrationPortland, OR(503) [email protected]

Erik Gilbert,Director

©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.

19

E N E R G Y

DirectorNavigant

Boulder, CO(303) 728-2536

[email protected]

GridWeek 2012

CVR Stakeholder benefit-cost allocation: some details

BPA Smart Grid Regional Business Case Update ›› CVR


BPA Smart Grid Regional Business Case Update ›› Initial Model Results ›› Overall Deployments (Preliminary)Initial deployment assumptions show how various smart grid Functions might be deployed across the Region


Preliminary DR B/C Ratios show key value differences: more analysis and vetting must be done to validate the initial assumptions

BPA Smart Grid Regional Business Case Update ›› Initial Model Results › DR (Preliminary)

Only for Commercial & Industrial customers

Only for Commercial customers; high costs

from Lighting Control System

Assumes smart dryers deployed for Residential

and EMS for Commercial customers

Small contribution to peak load from

A/C in the PNW; benefits outweighed by

equipment

Consistent with 2003 PGE pilot1

for space heating direct load control

Only for Commercial

& Residential customers


Systemcustomersequipmentcosts

(e.g., smart thermostats)

load control that also had B/C ratio <1

1 Ecofys, Demand ResponseGuidebook, July 2011.

GridWeek 2012

BPA Smart Grid Regional Business Case Update ›› Model Inputs and Outputs Examples

SAMPLE OUTPUT*: Outputs include probabilistic estimates of benefits/costs as well as five standard benefit/cost test ratios.


* Values are for illustration only and are not intended to be representative.

GridWeek 2012

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