Plant-Based Food Retail Market Overview - GFI

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Copyright 2020 Good Food Institute. All rights reserved. Plant-Based Food Retail Market Overview Presented by: Caroline Bushnell & Kyle Gaan

Transcript of Plant-Based Food Retail Market Overview - GFI

Copyright 2020 Good Food Institute. All rights reserved.

Plant-Based Food Retail Market OverviewPresented by: Caroline Bushnell & Kyle Gaan

Presenters for today’s webinar

gfi.org | Page 2

Caroline BushnellAssociate Director, Corporate [email protected]

Kyle GaanResearch Analyst

[email protected]

The Good Food Institute

Accelerating the shift to a sustainable, healthy, and just food system through three key areas of work:

We act as a force multiplier, bringing the expertise of our departments to the rest of the world.

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FERMENTATIONPLANT-BASED PROTEINS

GFI services

• Global & regional market overviews• Syndicated retail sales data• Industry mapping• Primary consumer research

• Consumer trends and insights• Innovation guidance• Menu and merchandising strategy• Product marketing & positioning

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Marketing & Strategy

U.S. plant-based market overview

Plant-based market overview

gfi.org | Page 8

Only products that are plant-based substitutes are included in this data. Inherently plant-based foods, such as chickpeas and kale, are not included. There are 7 high-level categories:

Tofu and tempeh Plant-based meat Plant-based milk

Other plant-based dairy

Plant-based eggs

Plant-based meals Plant-based condiments and dressings

“Other plant-based dairy” includes:• Cheese• Yogurt• Ice cream and frozen novelty• Butter• Creamers• Ready-to-drink beverages• Dairy spreads, dips, sour cream, and sauces

SPINS data covers the Natural, Specialty Gourmet, and MULO channels

gfi.org | Page 9

Natural Specialty Gourmet MULO

• Full-format stores with $2 million+ in annual sales and at least 50%+ of sales from natural/organic products

• Includes co-ops, associations, independents, large regional chains (excludes Whole Foods & Trader Joes)

• Examples: Sprouts, Erewhon, Earth Fare

• Full-format supermarkets with more than $2 million in annual sales

• SPINS-defined specialty items comprise at least 25% of overall volume

• High-end, experiential stores featuring full-service and fresh departments such as prepared foods, butchers, and on-site bakeries

• Examples: Gelson’s, Heinen’s, Busch’s

• The Conventional Multi Outlet Channel is comprised of over 104,000 retail locations spanning Grocery, Drug, Mass, Dollar, Military, and Club

• Includes 250+ corporate totals and banners

• SPINSscan Conventional provides reporting on Conventional Food, Drug, Mass and Multi Outlet Channels

• Examples: Publix, Walmart, Kroger, Target

$3.9b$4.5b

$5.0b

$0b

$1b

$2b

$3b

$4b

$5b

$6b

2017 2018 2019

Dol

lar s

ales

U.S. retail sales of plant-based food are worth $5 billion

gfi.org | Page 10Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 104 weeks ending 12-29-2019

Total U.S. plant-based food market

+15%+11%

11%

2%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

Total plant-based food market Total food market

$ %

chg

YA

Plant-based foods grew 5 times faster than total food sales over the past year

gfi.org | Page 11Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 104 weeks ending 12-29-2019

Total food and plant-based food markets comparison: dollar sales growth2019

5X

$2.0b

$1.4b

$939m

$377m $128m$64m $10m

-12%

0%

12%

24%

36%

48%

-$0.6b

$0.0b

$0.6b

$1.2b

$1.8b

$2.4b

Plant-basedmilk

Other plant-based dairy

Plant-basedmeat

Plant-basedmeals

Tofu andtempeh

Plant-basedcondiments

and dressings

Plant-basedeggs

$ %

chg

YA

Dol

lar s

ales

Dollar sales $ % chg YA

Plant-based milk is the most developed category at $2 billion

gfi.org | Page 12Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019

Total U.S. plant-based food dollar sales and dollar sales growth by category2019

192%

192%

34% 31% 18% 18% 8% 6% 5%

-10%

6%

-1%

3% 1% 3% 2% 0.1%

-40%

0%

40%

80%

120%

160%

200%

Eggs Creamer Yogurt Meat Cheese Butter Ice creamand frozen

novelty

Milk

$ %

chg

YA

Plant-based Animal-based

Plant-based food sales growth outperforms animal-based food sales growth across key categories

gfi.org | Page 13Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019

Animal-based and plant-based product comparison: dollar sales growth2019

228%

93% 95%

38% 51%15%

34%14%6% 11%

-6%

5% 2% 5% 3%

-4%-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Eggs Creamer Yogurt Meat Cheese Butter Ice creamand frozen

novelty

Milk

$ %

chg

2YA

Plant-based Animal-based

The two year sales growth comparison shows a clear trend towards plant-based products

gfi.org | Page 14Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 104 weeks ending 12-29-2019

Animal-based and plant-based product comparison: two-year dollar sales growth2019

14%

6% 5%4%

3%1% 1% 0.2%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

Milk Butter Creamer Yogurt Ice cream andfrozen novelty

Meat* Cheese Eggs

% s

hare

Plant-based milk has the greatest share of total market; other dairy categories are gaining share

gfi.org | Page 15

Plant-based share by category2019

Note: SPINS does not report non-UPC meat counter sales. To account for this, the plant-based meat total retail share calculation uses the $95 billion total meat market size reported by Nielsen, as this number includes both retail packaged meat sales and non-UPC meat counter salesSource: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019; Nielsen (2019), The F Word: Flexitarian Is Not a Curse to the Meat Industry

14%

2%1%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

Plant-based milk:share of retail milk

Plant-based meat:share of retail packaged meat

Plant-based meat:share of total retail meat

% s

hare

There is a $12 billion opportunity for plant-based meat to reach market share parity with plant-based milk

gfi.org | Page 16

Note: SPINS does not report non-UPC meat counter sales. To account for this, the plant-based meat total retail share calculation uses the $95 billion total meat market size reported by Nielsen, as this number includes both retail packaged meat sales and non-UPC meat counter salesSource: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019; Nielsen (2019), The F Word: Flexitarian Is Not a Curse to the Meat Industry

Plant-based milk and meat shares of total categories2019

$12 billion opportunity

1%

41%

18%

34%

22%

30%

8%

17%

2%

20%

7%11%

6% 6%3% 2% 0.

4%

13%

5% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Milk Butter Creamer Yogurt Ice cream andfrozen novelty

Meat* Cheese Eggs

% s

hare

Natural Specialty Gourmet MULO

Plant-based foods have the largest share of their respective categories in the Natural channel

gfi.org | Page 17

Note: SPINS does not report non-UPC meat counter sales. To account for this, the plant-based meat total retail share calculation uses the $95 billion total meat market size reported by Nielsen, as this number includes both retail packaged meat sales and non-UPC meat counter salesSource: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019; Nielsen (2019), The F Word: Flexitarian Is Not a Curse to the Meat Industry

Plant-based share by category and channel2019

27k25k

17k 16k

12k

7k 7k 6k 5k 4k 3k 2k 1k0k

6k

12k

18k

24k

30k

TDP

Plant-based milk has the highest distribution, with room for growth across categories

gfi.org | Page 18Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019

Total distribution points by plant-based category 2019

Milk Ice cream and frozen novelty

Yogurt Cheese Condiments, dressings, and

mayo

Butter Eggs

Meat Meals Creamer RTD Beverages Tofu andtempeh

Dairy spreads, dips, sour cream, and

sauces

Plant-based products are sold at a premium when compared to their animal-based counterparts

gfi.org | Page 19Note: Animal-based meat average price calculated using Nielsen August 2018 retail and counter sales dataSource: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019

$2.05$3.25

$3.81 $3.94 $4.52 $4.83 $4.85

$6.94

$1.77$2.79

$3.29$3.78 $3.88 $3.33 $3.66

$2.44

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

Yogurt Milk Creamer Butter Meat Cheese Ice creamand frozen

novelty

Eggs

Avg

reta

il pr

ice

Plant-based Animal-based

Animal-based and plant-based product comparison: average retail price2019

29% 29% 29%26% 26% 24%

20% 19%

37%

29%33%

14%

32% 31%

20%

33%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Ice creamand frozen

novelty

Yogurt Eggs Milk Meat Cheese Creamer Butter

% $

sal

es o

n pr

omo

Plant-based Animal-based

Plant-based milk is the only category sold on promotion at a higher rate than animal-based categories

gfi.org | Page 20Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019

Percentage of dollar sales on promotion by plant-based category 2019

Purchasing dynamics

40%

13%

41%

14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Plant-based milk Plant-based meat

Hou

seho

ld p

enet

ratio

n

Year ending October 2018Year ending October 2019

Year ending November 2018Year ending November 2019

Household penetration of plant-based milk and plant-based meat stands at 41% and 14%, respectively

gfi.org | Page 22Source: IRI panel, total store view, all outlets, 52 weeks ending 12-01-2019; The Food Industry Association & IRI, “Understanding the Plant-Based Consumer” (January 2020) - IRI panel, all outlets, 52 weeks ending 11-03-19, NBD aligned

Household penetration of plant-based milk and plant-based meat

Many plant-based categories have room to grow in terms of household penetration

gfi.org | Page 23Source: The Food Industry Association & IRI, “Understanding the Plant-Based Consumer” (January 2020) - IRI panel, all outlets, 52 weeks ending 11-03-19, NBD aligned

38.9%

14.0%10.3% 9.7% 8.7% 7.6% 6.7%

2.9%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Refrigeratedmilk

Meat Shelf-stablemilk

Meals Yogurt Creamer Ice cream Cheese

Hou

seho

ld p

enet

ratio

n

Household penetration of plant-based products2019

% chg YA 5.1% 8.5% -7.2% 11.5% 40.3% 18.8% -10.7% 7.4%

The majority of households are purchasing refrigerated plant-based milk and plant-based meat 2 or more times

gfi.org | Page 24

75.6%60.1% 51.6% 47.7% 49.7% 59.3%

48.0% 54.9%

24.4%39.9% 48.4% 52.3% 50.3% 40.7%

52.0% 45.1%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Refrigeratedmilk

Meat Shelf-stablemilk

Meals Yogurt Creamer Ice cream Cheese

Hou

seho

ld p

enet

ratio

n

Share of households buying 2x+ Share of households buying 1x

Household penetration of plant-based products by 1x and 2x buyers2019

Source: The Food Industry Association & IRI, “Understanding the Plant-Based Consumer” (January 2020) - IRI panel, all outlets, 52 weeks ending 11-03-19, NBD aligned

Plant-based meat and refrigerated plant-based milk have the highest dollar sales per buyer

gfi.org | Page 25

$45.9

$36.5

$28.4$22.9 $21.2 $19.5 $18.2 $17.3

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

Meat Refrigeratedmilk

Cheese Creamer Ice cream Yogurt Meals Shelf-stablemilk

Dol

lar s

ales

per

buy

er

Dollar sales per buyer by plant-based product2019

Source: The Food Industry Association & IRI, “Understanding the Plant-Based Consumer” (January 2020) - IRI panel, all outlets, 52 weeks ending 11-03-19, NBD aligned

Dollar per buyer chg $0.8 $0.5 $2.5 $2.9 $2.4 -$0.5 $0.7 $0.1

9.15.4

2.85.0 3.7 3.0 3.4 3.9

0

5

10

Refrigeratedmilk

Meat Meals Creamer Yogurt Ice cream Shelf-stablemilk

Cheese

Plant-based meat, ice cream, and cheese experienced increases in both dollar sales per trip and product trips per buyer

gfi.org | Page 26

$4.0

$8.4$6.6

$4.6 $5.3$7.1

$5.2$7.4

$0

$5

$10

Refrigeratedmilk

Meat Meals Creamer Yogurt Ice cream Shelf-stablemilk

Cheese

Dollar sales per trip by plant-based product2019

Source: The Food Industry Association & IRI, “Understanding the Plant-Based Consumer” (January 2020) - IRI panel, all outlets, 52 weeks ending 11-03-19, NBD aligned

% chg YA -1.2% 0.3% 4.0% 15.9% -3.0% 6.6% 0.1% 4.5%

Product trips per buyer by plant-based product2019

% chg YA 2.7% 1.4% 0.0% -1.0% 0.3% 5.5% 0.4% 5.0%

Plant-based meat

U.S. retail sales of plant-based meat are worth $939 million

gfi.org | Page 28Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 104 weeks ending 12-29-2019

$682m$794m

$939m

$0m

$300m

$600m

$900m

$1,200m

2017 2018 2019

Dol

lar s

ales

U.S. plant-based meat market

+16%+18%

$617m

$312m

$10m0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

75%

$0m

$150m

$300m

$450m

$600m

$750m

Frozen plant-based meat Refrigeratedplant-based meat

Shelf-stableplant-based meat

$ %

chg

YA

Dol

lar s

ales

Dollar sales $ % chg YA

Plant-based meat category growth is being driven by refrigerated plant-based meat sales

gfi.org | Page 29Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019

Plant-based meat dollar sales and dollar sales growth by store section2019

$536m $594m $617m

$139m$192m

$312m

$0m

$200m

$400m

$600m

$800m

$1,000m

Dol

lar s

ales

Refrigerated

Frozen

Refrigerated plant-based meat now makes up 33% of category sales and year over year growth is increasing

gfi.org | Page 30Note: Shelf-stable plant-based meat products excluded from this analysisSource: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 104 weeks ending 12-29-2019

U.S. plant-based meat market by frozen and refrigerated categories

Year ending April2017

Year ending April2018

Year ending April2019

+11% +4%

+38%+63%

Refrigerated plant-based meat accounts for 60% of sales in the Natural channel

gfi.org | Page 31Note: Shelf-stable plant-based meat products excluded from this analysisSource: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019

$561m$15m $41m

$236m$16m $61m

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

MULO Specialty Gourmet Natural

$ %

chg

YA

% o

f tot

al $

sal

es

Frozen Refrigerated Frozen $ % chg YA Refrigerated $ % chg YA

Plant-based meat dollar sales and dollar sales growth by store section and sales channel2019

0k

4k

8k

12k

16k

2017 2018 2019

Tota

l dis

trib

utio

n po

ints

Frozen plant-based meat Refrigerated plant-based meat Shelf-stable plant-based meat

Total distribution points for plant-based meat have increased across all store sections

gfi.org | Page 32Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 104 weeks ending 12-29-2019

Plant-based meat total distribution points by department

+2% +9%

+2% +27%

-2% +50%

Burgers have the largest share of plant-based meat sales; links are the fastest growing

gfi.org | Page 33Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 104 weeks ending 12-29-2019

$283m

$159m$120m $112m $104m

$40m $30m $26m $21m$44m

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-$60m

$0m

$60m

$120m

$180m

$240m

$300m

$ %

chg

YA

Dol

lar s

ales

Dollar sales $ % chg YA

Plant-based meat dollar sales and dollar sales growth by product type2019

Burgers Links Patties Nuggets, tenders,

and cutlets

Grounds Chunks and strips

Deli slices Bacon Meatballs Other

123%

248%

48%

100%57%

6%15%

69%

13%

-4%

9% 11% 14% 15%

-10%

3% 5%

95%

-60%

0%

60%

120%

180%

240%

300%

Burgers Patties Nuggets,tenders,

and cutlets

Grounds Links Chunksand strips

Bacon Meatballs Deli slices

$ %

chg

YA

Refrigerated $ % chg YA Frozen $ % chg YA

Refrigerated sales are driving growth across most plant-based meat product types

gfi.org | Page 34Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019

Plant-based meat product type dollar sales growth by store section2019

• Mimics appearance of meat• Mimics taste of meat• Uses meat-like terminology (e.g. chick’n, beef)

Plant-based meat products vary in the degree to which they are analogs or non-analogs of animal-based meat

gfi.org | Page 35

Analog Non-analog

• Emphasizes vegetable ingredients• Maintains vegetable-like texture and/or flavor

Analog plant-based meat products make up slightly more than 60% of UPC’s but almost 85% of dollar sales

gfi.org | Page 36Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019

63%84% 85%

37%16% 15%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

UPCs $ sales Unit sales

Analog Non-analog

Analog and non-analog plant-based meat product comparison2019

Products that are analogous to meat are growing faster than non-analogs

gfi.org | Page 37Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019

Analog vs non-analog plant-based meat product sales and YoY growth2019

$790m

$145m

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

-$300m

$0m

$300m

$600m

$900m

Analog Non-analog

$ %

chg

YA

Dol

lar s

ales

Dollar sales $ % chg YA

$270m

$201m$179m

$131m$97m

$30m $7m $6m $19m

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-$60m

$0m

$60m

$120m

$180m

$240m

$300m

Beef Chicken Pork Non-analog(vegetable)

Analog (notspecified)

Turkey Fish Non-analog(Jackfruit)

Other

$ %

chg

YA

Dol

lar s

ales

Dollar sales $ % chg YA

Plant-based versions of beef, chicken, and pork make up almost 70% of plant-based meat sales

gfi.org | Page 38Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019

Plant-based meat dollar sales and YoY growth by animal-type2019

Burgers58%

Grounds31%

Other11%

Beef

Nuggets, tenders,

and cutlets54%

Patties32%

Chunks and strips13%

Other1%

Chicken

Links88%

Other12%

Analog (not specified)

Beef-type products are concentrated in burgers and grounds, chicken-type products in nuggets and patties

gfi.org | Page 39Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019

Plant-based meat animal type by product type dollar sales2019

Links41%

Patties30%

Bacon15%

Grounds7%

Other7%

Pork

Fish and shellfish are underrepresented in the plant-based meat market

gfi.org | Page 40

Note: Animal-based meat dollar sales for year ending August 2018; plant-based meat dollar sales for year ending December 2019Source: Nielsen custom defined data set, xAOC + WFM, 52 weeks ending 8-11-2018; SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscanConventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019

Beef Beef

Chicken Chicken

Pork Pork

Analog (not specified)Turkey

TurkeyFish

Shellfish

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Animal-based meat Plant-based meat

% o

f tot

al $

sal

es

Animal-based and plant-based meat comparison: dollar sales by animal-type

Plant-based fish makes up almost 70% of the plant-based seafood category

gfi.org | Page 41Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019

Plant-based seafood sales and YoY growth by seafood type2019

$7m

$3m

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

-$2m

$0m

$2m

$4m

$6m

$8m

Fish Shellfish

$ %

chg

YA

Dol

lar s

ales

Dollar sales $ % chg YA

The plant-based fish and shellfish categories are both dominated by one animal type

gfi.org | Page 42Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019

White fish$6m

Tuna and other fish$820k

Fish$7m

Shellfish$3m

Crab$2m

Scallops and shrimp$362k

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Fish Seafood Shellfish

Plant-based seafood category by animal type2019

Plant-based milk

U.S. retail sales of plant-based milk are worth $2 billion

gfi.org | Page 44Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 104 weeks ending 12-29-2019

$1.8b$1.9b $2.0b

$0.0b

$0.5b

$1.0b

$1.5b

$2.0b

$2.5b

2017 2018 2019

Dol

lar s

ales

U.S. plant-based milk market

+9%+5%

Refrigerated plant-based milk sales make up the majority of the category and are driving category growth

gfi.org | Page 45Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019

U.S. plant-based milk dollar sales and dollar sales growth by store section2019

$1.8b

$211m

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

-$800m

$0m

$800m

$1,600m

$2,400m

Refigerated plant-based milk Shelf-stable plant-based milk

$ %

chg

YA

Dol

lar s

ales

Dollar sales $ % chg YA

gfi.org | Page 46

10k

11k

12k

13k

14k

15k

2017 2018 2019

Tota

l dis

trib

utio

n po

ints

Refrigerated plant-based milk Shelf-stable plant-based milk

Refrigerated plant-based milk TDP growth has increased as volume moves to the fresh dairy case

gfi.org | Page 47Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 104 weeks ending 12-29-2019

Plant-based milk total distribution points by department

-1%

+8%

+2%

-4%

$1.3b

$202m $118m $93m $84m $51m $38m $36m $66m

-15%

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

-$375m

$0m

$375m

$750m

$1,125m

$1,500m

Almond Soy Blends Coconut Oat Cashew Pea Rice Other

$ %

chg

YA

Dol

lar s

ales

Dollar sales $ % chg YA

Almond milk makes up the majority of plant-based milk sales, but oat milk grew at 686% over the past year

gfi.org | Page 48Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019

Plant-based milk dollar sales and dollar sales growth by product type2019

686%

Oat milk makes up a larger proportion of Natural channel sales

gfi.org | Page 49Note: “Other” category includes rice, pea, cashew, hemp, and flax milksSource: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019

AlmondAlmond

Almond

SoySoy

Soy

BlendBlend

Blend

CoconutCoconut

Coconut

OatOat

Oat

Other OtherOther

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

MULO Specialty Gourmet Natural

% o

f tot

al $

sal

es

Plant-based milk sales by product type and sales channel2019

Plant-based other dairy

Plant-based ice cream and frozen novelty products are the largest of the other plant-based dairy categories

gfi.org | Page 51Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019

$336m$287m $283m

$198m $189m

$122m

$30m

0%

12%

24%

36%

48%

60%

72%

$0m

$70m

$140m

$210m

$280m

$350m

$420m

Plant-based icecream and frozen

novelty

Plant-basedcreamer

Plant-basedyogurt

Plant-basedbutter

Plant-basedcheese

Plant-basedready-to-drink

beverages

Plant-baseddairy spreads,

dips, sour cream,and sauces

$ %

chg

YA

Dol

lar s

ales

$ sales $ % chg YA

Other plant-based dairy category dollar sales and dollar sales growth2019

U.S. retail dollar sales of plant-based ice cream and frozen novelty products are worth $336 million

gfi.org | Page 52Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 104 weeks ending 12-29-2019

$251m

$318m $336m

$0m

$100m

$200m

$300m

$400m

2017 2018 2019

Dol

lar s

ales

U.S. plant-based ice cream and frozen novelty market

+27%+6%

Plant-based ice cream makes up the majority of the category, although sales have stagnated

gfi.org | Page 53Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019

U.S. plant-based ice cream and frozen novelty dollar sales and dollar sales growth by store section2019

$247m

$61m$27m

-9%

0%

9%

18%

27%

36%

-$90m

$0m

$90m

$180m

$270m

$360m

Plant-based ice cream Plant-based novelties Plant-based pies and otherdesserts

$ %

chg

YA

Dol

lar s

ales

Dollar sales $ % chg YA

U.S. retail sales of plant-based creamer grew 34% to reach $287 million

gfi.org | Page 54Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 104 weeks ending 12-29-2019

$149m

$213m

$287m

$0m

$70m

$140m

$210m

$280m

$350m

2017 2018 2019

Dol

lar s

ales

U.S. plant-based creamer market

+43%+34%

U.S. retail sales of plant-based yogurt grew 31% to reach $283 million

gfi.org | Page 55Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 104 weeks ending 12-29-2019

$145m

$215m

$283m

$0m

$60m

$120m

$180m

$240m

$300m

2017 2018 2019

Dol

lar s

ales

U.S. plant-based yogurt market

+48%+31%

$127m

$87m

$44m$24m

-9%

0%

9%

18%

27%

36%

45%

-$27m

$0m

$27m

$54m

$81m

$108m

$135m

Coconut Almond Soy Other

$ %

chg

YA

Dol

lar S

ales

Dollar sales $ % chg YA

Coconut and almond yogurts make up ~76% of category sales, and are growing at 42% and 39% respectively

gfi.org | Page 56Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019

Plant-based yogurt dollar sales with dollar sales growth, by type2019

U.S. retail sales of plant-based butter grew 8% to reach $198 million

gfi.org | Page 57Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 104 weeks ending 12-29-2019

$173m $183m$198m

$0m

$50m

$100m

$150m

$200m

$250m

2017 2018 2019

Dol

lar s

ales

U.S. plant-based butter market

+6% +8%

U.S. retail sales of plant-based cheese are worth $189 million

gfi.org | Page 58Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 104 weeks ending 12-29-2019

$125m

$160m$189m

$0m

$60m

$120m

$180m

$240m

2017 2018 2019

Dol

lar s

ales

U.S. plant-based cheese market

+27%

+18%

$67.3m $65.0m

$45.7m

$11.0m

0%

6%

12%

18%

24%

30%

$0m

$15m

$30m

$45m

$60m

$75m

Shredded and grated Sliced and snack Spread Block, wheel, andwedge

$ %

chg

YA

Dol

lar S

ales

Dollar sales $ % chg YA

Shredded cheeses and sliced cheeses make up 70% of category sales and are growing at 17% and 16%, respectively

gfi.org | Page 59Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019

Plant-based cheese dollar sales with dollar sales growth, by type2019

U.S. retail sales of plant-based ready to drink beverages grew 18% to reach $122 million

gfi.org | Page 60Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 104 weeks ending 12-29-2019

$88m$103m

$122m

$0m

$27m

$54m

$81m

$108m

$135m

2017 2018 2019

Dol

lar s

ales

U.S. plant-based ready-to-drink beverages market

+18%+18%

Protein drinks and smoothies make up 65% of plant-based RTD beverage sales and are driving category growth

gfi.org | Page 61Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019

U.S. plant-based ready-to-drink beverages dollar sales and dollar sales growth, by type2019

$80m

$43m

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

$0m

$20m

$40m

$60m

$80m

$100m

Plant-based protein drinks and smoothies Coffee, lattes, and teas with plant-based milk

$ %

chg

YA

Dol

lar s

ales

Dollar sales $ % chg YA

U.S. retail sales of plant-based dairy spreads, dips, sour cream, and sauces grew 54% to reach $30 million

gfi.org | Page 62Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 104 weeks ending 12-29-2019

$13m

$19m

$30m

$0m

$8m

$16m

$24m

$32m

2017 2018 2019

Dol

lar s

ales

U.S. plant-based dairy spreads, dips, sour cream, and sauces market

+53%

+54%

Other plant-based categories

U.S. retail sales of plant-based meals grew 8% to reach $377 million

gfi.org | Page 64Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 104 weeks ending 12-29-2019

$300m$348m

$377m

$0m

$100m

$200m

$300m

$400m

$500m

2017 2018 2019

Dol

lar s

ales

U.S. plant-based meals market

+16%+8%

U.S. retail sales of tofu and tempeh grew 8% to reach $128 million

gfi.org | Page 65Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 104 weeks ending 12-29-2019

$112m $119m$128m

$0m

$30m

$60m

$90m

$120m

$150m

2017 2018 2019

Dol

lar s

ales

U.S. tofu and tempeh market

+6%+8%

U.S. retail sales of plant-based condiments, dressings, and mayo declined 11% to $64 million

gfi.org | Page 66Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 104 weeks ending 12-29-2019

$63m$71m

$64m

$0m

$20m

$40m

$60m

$80m

2017 2018 2019

Dol

lar s

ales

U.S. plant-based condiments, dressings, and mayo market

+14% -11%

U.S. retail sales of plant-based eggs are worth $10 million and are rapidly growing

gfi.org | Page 67Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 104 weeks ending 12-29-2019

$3m $3m

$10m

$0m

$3m

$6m

$9m

$12m

2017 2018 2019

Dol

lar s

ales

U.S. plant-based eggs market

+13%

+192%

Key takeaways

gfi.org | Page 68

1. The plant-based food market reached $5 billion in sales and grew at 11% over the past year, 5 times faster than total food sales growth

2. Plant-based categories are experiencing both high repeat purchase rates and an increasing percentage of repeat buyers

3. Refrigerated product sales are driving growth in the plant-based milk, meat, and egg categories

4. Plant-based products benefit from adjacency and should be displayed side-by-side with their animal-based counterparts

5. Analog plant-based products that closely match conventional products’ taste, appearance, and packaging are driving plant-based food growth

6. There is room for innovation in whole muscle products that resemble premium animal cuts, particularly in chicken and fish

Q&A

Thank you for attending our webinar!

gfi.org | Page 70

Caroline BushnellAssociate Director, Corporate [email protected]

Kyle GaanResearch Analyst

[email protected]