Planning Forecasting Part (A)

8/14/2019 Planning Forecasting Part (A)

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Planning and Forecasting(Part A)

Eng. Ahmed Bakhsh


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Management Functions

Planning

Decision Making

Organizing

Controlling

Leading


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Chapter Objectives

Explain the importance of planning

Identify missions

Explain the roles of goals and objectives

Identify strategies

Define the different types of forecasting

Describe the Delphi Method

Define different approaches to forecasts

Discuss some strategies for managing technology


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It is probably the most important of theidentified managerial functions. It focuses

you on how best to achieve the desiredresults. Thus, without it organizing,leading, and controlling have littlepurpose.

Planning and Forecasting

Planning


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Planning Planning is the work done to predetermine a

course of action, in order to provide focusand direction for enhancing the efficiencyand effectiveness of the company

1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02

Product A

Concept B

Project C

Study D

Test E


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Planning

Provides method for identifying objectives

Design sequence of programs and activitiesto achieve objectives


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Planning

Planning is made necessary by rapid change of

(a) Technology ( web-based tools, broadband

communications options, mobile access),

(b) Environment (globalization, competition,

marketplace), and

(c) Organization (mergers & acquisitions, networks,

outsourcing and alliances)


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Effective Planning Plan to plan

People implementing plan should beinvolved in preparing plan


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Planning What must be done? Who will do it? How will it be done? When must it be done?

How much will it cost? What do we need to do it?


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Who should do the planning


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Planning Roles

Assist Superiors Ask for support from Subordinates Develop Active Plans

Time management Project and Programs Corporate know-how


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Planning

Operational Planning

Strategic Planning


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Operational Planning

Define tasks/events to beaccomplished with the leastamount of resources withinthe shortest time, to assurethat the company applies itsresources efficiently toachieve its short-term and

long-term goals


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Operational Planning Questions

What is the most efficient way of accomplishing a project/task with known

objectives (doing things right) ? How to link up with three best suppliers in

the marketplace for parts needed?

What are the operational guidelines for performing specific work?


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Strategic Planning Questions

What are the companys vision, mission and valuesystem?

What specific goals (profitability, market share, sales,technology leadership position, global penetration) toaccomplish by when, with what investment and whichtechnology?

Which new/improved product streams to offer bywhen (considering product life cycle)?


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Mission and Vision

Mission Why do we exist? Whom are we

serving? What do we do to

serve them?

Vision - CompanyAspiration

Market capital Business standing

Ranking in industrialsector

Market Share Others.


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Vision Example

Eastman Chemical Company

To Be the World's Preferred ChemicalCompany


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Vision Microsoft (1980s)

"A personal computer on every desk, andevery computer running Microsoft software."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsofthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft


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Mission Pals

To deliver excellence in food service while providing a menu focused on exceptional

quality.


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Mission Example

The mission of Southwest Airlines isdedication to the highest quality of

Customer Service delivered with a sense of warmth, friendliness, individual pride, andCompany Spirit.

http://www.southwest.com 9/9/05
http://www.southwest.com/http://www.southwest.com/http://www.southwest.com/


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Tools for Strategic Planning

Market research SWOT analysis

Sensitivity analysis (what-if, scenarios, Monte Carlo)

External benchmarking Technology forecasting Product life cycle analysis


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Strategic Planning


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Strategic Planning:

CurrentState

Future

State

Needs strategic plans

l d


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Strategic Planning:

Develop work assignments based on organizational needs andobjectives.

Plans are agreed between manager and subordinate.

Objectives should be stretch objectives

Objectives should be quantifiable (increase income by 5%) or at leasttangible (written policy).

Needed resources should be determined and agreed to.

Plans should include employee development as well.

Plans are for a 6 month to 1 year time span.

Management by Objectives

Pl i d F i


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Some Planning Concepts

It is the continuing responsibility of each manager.

The higher managers rise the more time they spendon planning.

Ultimate responsibility lies with top and middlemanagement.

Plans must lead to action.

Responsibility for Planning:

Pl i d F i


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Some Planning Concepts

These are the assumptions under which thedeveloped plans are expected to be executed.

Assumptions are based on forecasts and trendsin market and technology.

When there is uncertainty, there is a need todevelop contingency plans.

Planning Premises:

Planning Forecasting Part (A)

Documents

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