Planning and policyor

Planning by surprise

Wim TimmermansWageningen UR, VHL

1. Technical planning

Outcome of planning process depends on rational aspects as technical skills, equipment, budget.

1. Technical planning2. Communicative planning

We build our own living

area

Outcome also depends on communication, power,group dynamics

Tom Wild: ‘Green adds value to the build environment’

We had some doubts. We had the idea that policy decisions are often ‘fact free decisions’

Is it crucial for your project that we prove that green adds Value?

Interviews with some high level key playersin investment projects In VALUE

Approach: Open interviews

• Data gathering by– In depth interviews (open, informal)– Focus on soft and unofficial information

Soft information

• ‘Then suddenly..’• ‘However I had the opinion..’• ‘We put them under pressure..’• ‘Then I felt that..’• ‘After the meeting drinking a glass of wine, it

came up that he was not at all convinced of ..’

• ‘The new governor however..’

Narrative: Development company,Manchester

• We invest in sustainable energy• We consider well designed and maintained green

infrastructure not as a value increase but as preventing value decrease

• We believe in sustainable innovations; we want to be front runner.

Narrative: Esslingen• We made a development strategy for the future. ‘Esslingen

2027’ with a lot of possible projects• For our investment we talked about local economy, fish in the

river instead of a green biking route

• On the realization of projects we wait for the right moment

Narrative Amersfoort

• Arno made strong calculations to combine green development with housing

• Suddenly (after elections) a new vice major decided that Randenbroek would just be a green development. “I was convinced that we would find money somewhere”.

• Again one year later, suddenly she was gone

Outcome of interviews:

Decisions are not always based on rational calculations.

Decisions can be taken by chance, intuition, pragmatismor ideology; sometimes without data.

routine

routine

crisis

Time

13

2

2

4

5

6

7

2

Moment of transition or tipping point

Planning process

Level of complexity

Two types of governance• Efficiency driven

– Calculate – Linear– Make a structure plan– Plan

• Adaptive, design– Intuition– Non linear– Ideas– Ideology– Believe– Sudden change of government

Two types of governance• Efficiency driven

– Calculate – Linear– Make a structure plan– Plan

• Adaptive, design– Intuition– Non linear– Ideas– Ideology– Believe– Sudden change of government

??

1. Technical planning2. Communicative planning3. Planning by surprise

Outcome depends on intuition, belief and pragmatism and can be highly unpredictable

Results for the project

• Is it crucial for your project that VALUE proves that green adds Value?

• Efficiency driven:– Project level: yes, calculations show that green

infrastructure works

• Adaptive, by design:– Level of ideas: yes, calculations support ideology and

belief, that economy needs green infrastructure

Thank you for your attention