PIMRC 2006 Mobile TV’s Future Boom or Bust? · PIMRC 2006 Mobile TV’s Future Boom or Bust? 13...
Transcript of PIMRC 2006 Mobile TV’s Future Boom or Bust? · PIMRC 2006 Mobile TV’s Future Boom or Bust? 13...
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 1 assuredcommunications™
PIMRC 2006
Mobile TV’s FutureBoom or Bust?
13 September 2006
Marlis [email protected]
Director Strategic Marketing TelcoBroadcast Communications Division
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 2 assuredcommunications™
• Marlis Humphrey is director of Strategic Marketing - Telco for Harris Corporation, Broadcast Communications Division. She is responsible for development of the company’s market growth initiatives in IPTV, Mobile TV and Video Backhaul.
• Ms. Humphrey has a bachelor’s degree in Russian with minors in both mathematics and computer science from Knox College, Galesburg, IL. She received a master’s degree in management of technology from the University of Miami.
• Prior to joining Harris in 1999, Ms. Humphrey was president of Vitreous Communications, Inc., a consulting firm focused on broadband access. Previously, she was with AT&T Paradyne, where she was director of Business Development for Broadband Access Products and responsible for strategic planning for ATM Products. Ms. Humphrey also worked at AT&T Bell Laboratories where she was involved in planning for Broadband Multimedia Products and Services.
• Ms. Humphrey serves as vice chairman of TIA TR-47 which is developing mobile TV standards. For eight years, she led The ATM Forum Board of Directors as chairman and has participated in the ATIS IPTV Exploratory Group, Broadband Content Delivery Forum, ANSI T1E1, the DSL Forum, the UAWG, the MMCF, ETSI TM6, ITU-T SG15, and the Frame Relay Forum. Within T1E1, she served as chair of the CAP/QAM RADSL Ad Hoc and editor of “TR59—September 1999—Single-Carrier Rate Adap-tive Digital Subscriber Line (RADSL).” ).” She is an internationally noted speaker and author published in Data Communications, Business Communications Review, Telecommunications Magazine, IEEE Network magazine, OEM Magazine, CIO Magazine, Computer World, LAN Times and others.
• Harris Corporation is an international communications technology company focused on providing assured communications™ products, systems, and services for government and commercial customers in more than 150 countries. The company’s operating divisions serve markets for government communications, RF communications, broadcast communications, and microwave communications.
Marlis Humphrey
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 3 assuredcommunications™
Broadcast CommunicationsBusiness Strategy
18951895 19221922 19571957 19691969 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
New
Mar
ket L
eade
rshi
pA
cqui
sitio
ns
GatesRadio
Founded
Gates Radio
1972 General Electric’s TV product line1988 Allied Broadcast Equipment1991 Midwest Comm. Systems Division1991 TVT1997 ITIS and NEBL1998 Intraplex
Leitch PRELouth
Hirschmann
Over $800M Invested Since 2003
OSI Aastra Digital Video
QDIEncoda
A Solid Evolution toRich Digital Media Leadership
HarrisFounded1st PatentObtained
Printing AnalogRadio
AnalogTV
MediaNetworking
DigitalTV
ContentManagement
DigitalRadio
IPTV
MobileTV
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 4 assuredcommunications™
1. Increase ARPU2. Increase Ad-
Based Revenue3. Reduce Churn
Why Mobile TV?
1. Wider Distribution
2. New Production Opportunities
3. Drive Users to Content via Traditional Channels
1. “Live” News2. Boredom
Avoidance Entertainment
3. Don’t Miss the Show Sports & Entertainment
4. Location-Specific News
ConsumerConsumer Content ProviderContent ProviderContent AggregatorContent Aggregator
Network OperatorNetwork OperatorService ProviderService Provider
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 5 assuredcommunications™
Mobile TV – The End Vision
• Usage Capability– LF and SF viewing persistent connection
across any environment.• Cross Screen• Cross Service• Any Content
• Mass Deployment– 3000M Mobile Subscribers 2010– 500M Mobile TV Subscribers 2011 (IMS)– 66M Mobile TV Subscribers (Jupiter)
• Business Results– Investment Payback
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 6 assuredcommunications™
• Incomplete Technology & Standards
• Compelling Content
• Content Rights
• Spectrum
• Device Cost
• Regulation
• Industry Convergence / Transformation
Mobile TVMobile TVHurdlesHurdles
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 7 assuredcommunications™
What is the Measure of Success?
• Some Cost Estimates– Qualcomm: $800M Roll Out Cost; $70M Spectrum– Crown Castle/Modeo: $1.0B Roll Out; $12M
Spectrum– U.K.: $300-500M (DVB-H) + DAB– U.S.A. Cellular to date $250B
• Some Revenue Estimates– $900M U.S. through 2010 (Jupiter)– $276M U.K. through 2010 (Jupiter)
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 8 assuredcommunications™
What Will Success Require?
Air InterfaceAir InterfaceSpectrumSpectrum
E2E SystemsE2E SystemsMobile TV EcosystemMobile TV Ecosystem
Cross IndustryCross IndustryBusiness ModelsBusiness Models
Cross PlatformCross Platform
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 9 assuredcommunications™
Broadcast Mobile TV
DVB-H FLO T-DMB or Video over DAB
VHF170 to 230 MHz
UHF470 to 806 MHz
L-Band1400-1900 MHz
CommercialActivity
PotentialSpectrum
No SpectrumPlanning
HarrisTransmitters
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 10 assuredcommunications™
UHF vs. L-Band
UHFTransmitters typically in purpose-built transmission facility with adequate HVAC & often staffed by an operating staff.
L-BandRoof-top or cell-site, often open-air requiring a climate-controlled transmitter design (convection-cooled approach or HVAC unit attached to seal rack unit).Higher power
transmitters are often liquid-cooled, requiring outside space for heat exchange units.
Transmission sites are often mountain tops near an urban area, high-rise buildings within the urban area, or 300-600 meter towers.
Roof-top sites may require securetransmitter installation. If roof top, the antenna may be low profile, and mounted near the transmitter.
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 11 assuredcommunications™
Mobile TV Value Chain
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 12 assuredcommunications™
What Have We Learned?
• Consumer Adoption• Technology & New Service Adoption
– WiFi– DSL– IPTV– Mobile TV
• Cross Platform Adoption
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 13 assuredcommunications™
Harris Participation in MajorMobile TV Trials
• Arqiva (UK)– 9 transmitters, 500 users– Trial through 2006– Devices: Nokia, Sony, O2– UHF frequency, DVB-H
modulation
• Bridge Networks (Australia)
– Higher power 3 kW test transmitters
– Trial started 2005– UHF frequency, DVB-H
modulation
• KPN (Netherlands)– Multiple transmitters,
limited users– Technical trials started
Summer 2005– Partnering with Digitenne,
Nozema, and TNO. – Handset: Nokia 7710
• Swisscom (Switzerland)– Several low-power transmitters– Trial started Fall 2005– 26 TV program channels and basic
interactive services – Handset: Nokia 7710
• Modeo (U.S.)– 9-site trial in Pittsburgh; installing sites
in NYC – Handsets: Nokia, Motorola, Samsung– 1.67 GHz frequency, DVB-H
modulation
• MediaFLO USA– OFDM, similar to DVB-H– Trials in San Diego, Harris in labs– UHF channel 55– Handsets: Kyocera, LG, Pantech,
Samsung, Sanyo, and Sharp
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 14 assuredcommunications™
Consumer Interest is Mixed
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Germany Finland U.K. U.S.
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 15 assuredcommunications™
Total Content Delivery
Agency Business Systems DAM Delivery Networks
Production cost control, tracking and
Media Planning & Buying systems
Media Sales, Program and Advertising
scheduling & Financial control
systems
Content Transcoding, Management, Catalog and
Tracking
Broadcast Transmission Control and Management
systems of video stream
Routing of Content & Signal to the
consumer across various delivery
platforms
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 16 assuredcommunications™
Mobile TV Revenue Growth
Consumersare willing to
pay for content
Advertiserswant totarget
consumers
Mobile TV providersneed systems to support both
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 17 assuredcommunications™
National
DMA 1 DMA n
Zone 1 Zone n
Zip 1 Zip n
Zip+4 1 Zip+4 n
HH/STB 1 HH/STB n
Individual 1 Individual n
Cable Broadcast TV
Mobile TV Opportunity
1
2101
42,000+2
298,395,5373
110,213,9101
1 Nielsen Research, Sep 20052 US Postal Service, Mar 20063 US Pop Clock, Mar 2006
DBSMoTV
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 18 assuredcommunications™
Revenue & Operational ROI
6Cross-Platform
Ad Services
5Targeted
Ad Services
4
Regional Ads
3
National Ads
2Subscriber
Rollout
1Infrastructure
Rollout
6Cross-Platform
Ad Services
5Targeted
Ad Services
4
Regional Ads
3
National Ads
2Subscriber
Rollout
1Infrastructure
Rollout
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 19 assuredcommunications™
Generic Model for NetworkingStandards - Phases
Architecture
Services & ApplicationsServices & Applications
Adaptation/InterworkingAdaptation/Interworking
TransportTransport
Market Requirements
Market TrendsForecasts & Deployment
External RelationsMgmt
Promotion
Newsletter
Web
Events
Education
Best Practices Recognition
Government Affairs
TestInteroperability & Certification
OSS/Management
SecurityPhase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 20 assuredcommunications™
Lessons from Wi-Fi
Mountain View, CA, January 8, 2004 −The Wi-Fi Alliance announced today that over 1,000 products from over 120 leading manufacturers have received certification since testing began in March 2000. Recent test data released by the Wi-Fi Alliance indicates that wireless LAN interoperability and performance continue to be an issue for products without Wi-Ficertification.
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 21 assuredcommunications™
802.11 Standards Development
97 98 99 00 01 02 03
IEEE 802.117 years old
IEEE 802.111/2Mb/s
Standard
IEEE 802.11b11Mp/s
Standard
IEEE 802.11a54Mp/s
Standard
IEEE 802.11gStandard
IEEE 802.11n100Mb/s+
IEEE 802.11Roaming,QoS, etc.
1000 Products120 Manufacturers
Certified
Wi-FiFormed
Wi-FiCertification
Begins
ApproachingCellular
Handsetsin Volume
50M Units25M Units
Indu
stry
A
ssoc
iatio
nM
arke
t Pe
netr
atio
nSt
anda
rds
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 22 assuredcommunications™
The Impact of Certification – The Vendors Win
Wi-Fi Global Sales Volume (millions)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 23 assuredcommunications™
Volume Drives Price
802.11 Chipset Pricing
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Pric
e (U
SD)
Note: Price reflects current technology node: 802.11b for 1999 – 2002 and 802.11g for 2003 - 2005
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 24 assuredcommunications™
The Market Accelerates - Consumers & Service Providers Win
Wi-Fi Retail Price
0
50
100
150
200
250
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Pric
e (U
SD)
Note: Price reflects current technology node: 802.11b for 1999 – 2002 and 802.11g for 2003 - 2005
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 25 assuredcommunications™
WiMAX looking to Repeat the Formula
Regulatory
Mandatory requirements for Type Approval and deployment.
Interoperability
Standards that may be enforced bythe customers.
Trade Organizations
Collect requirements, educate industry and promote trade and favorable regulatory environment.
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 26 assuredcommunications™
Evolution of DSL
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
•SDSL •Trials•DSP•Simple DSLAM (ATU-Cs)•Simple ATU-R•RT/DLC
•Volume Ship Begin•Costs Drop•Multi-mode Chips•Quad Chips•Smart DSLAM•SVC•VDSL & Lite
•Truck Roll•Low Power•Hi Density•Integrating•PCMCIA•Soft Modem•GatewaysIm
plem
enta
tion
D
eplo
ymen
t •CLEC Fizzle•72 Port Cards•15M Consumers•Post Install Truck Roll•Automated Loop Mgmt Systems
•Line code•Base PMD
•TC/PMD•IP vs. ATM
•Billing•Spectrum Mgmt•SVC•VDSL•Multiservice•Service Mgmt (CORBA)•Test Suites
•Test•SNMP•E-E Arch•Netwk Migration•Handshake•Dual Latency•Auto Config•Sleep Mode•Prem Netwk•Prem Gateway•Security•Encaps/Tunnel
•Lite•IP vs. ATM
Stan
dard
s
•SHDSL •Dynamic Interoperability Testing•Auto-Configuration•Flow-Thru Service Provisioning•DSL Anywhere
•VOD •Internet Data •Multi-Service(Telephony)•E-Commerce•Multi-Service Provider•ResidenceM
arke
t D
rive
rs
•Business•Multi-Tenant
•Multi-Media•VOD•DTV•CapExPressure
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 27 assuredcommunications™
The Impact of Interoperability Testing & Certification
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
•June 2002DSL Forum Launches ITL Program
Impl
emen
tati
on
Dep
loym
ent
•15M Consumers •140M Consumers40M in 20051.5M IPTV Consumers
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 28 assuredcommunications™
DSL Forum – Functional View
ArchitectureArchitecture•System Reference & Service Models, Roadmaps, Network Migration Strategies/Scenerios,
Interfaces/Configurations, Requirements, End-to-End Packet Mode Architecture w/ Tunneling & Service Selection, CPE Architectures, VDSL Evolution, Core Network Architectures
•GX-FSAN
Services & Applications•VoDSL, MTU, Multimedia over DSL
•ATMF, HomePNA, BCDF
Services & ApplicationsServices & Applications•VoDSL, MTU, Multimedia over DSL
•ATMF, HomePNA, BCDF
Adaptation/Interworking•Packet Networks, Cell Networks,
Framing/Encapsulation,Protocols @ U interface for Accessing
Legacy Data Networks•ATMF, IETF
Adaptation/Adaptation/InterworkingInterworking•Packet Networks, Cell Networks,
Framing/Encapsulation,Protocols @ U interface for Accessing
Legacy Data Networks•ATMF, IETF
Transport•Single- or Multi- Carrier Line Code agnostic,frame-mode xport, line code channelization,Splitterless & w/ Splitter Recommendations•T1E1, ETSI TM4, ITU-T SG15Q4, TR30.3
•VDSL Coalition, UAWG, GX-FSAN
TransportTransport•Single- or Multi- Carrier Line Code agnostic,frame-mode xport, line code channelization,Splitterless & w/ Splitter Recommendations•T1E1, ETSI TM4, ITU-T SG15Q4, TR30.3
•VDSL Coalition, UAWG, GX-FSAN
Market Market RqtsRqts. &. &ForecastsForecasts
External RelationsExternal RelationsMgmtMgmt
Promotion &Promotion &EducationEducation•ITU-D•Interop Demos•Summits•Ambassador Prog•Deployment Stats•Point&Click Maps•Newsletter•Trade Shows•Glossary/FAQs•BoF•Service ProviderAction Council•Best Practices•Circle of Excellence
TestTest•Conformance/ICS,
•Dynamic Interoperability•TR30.3, TR41.9,
•Independent Testing Laboratory,OpenVoB
OSS/ManagementOSS/Management•ILMI, SNMP/MIB, CMIP, •Network Element Mgmt,
CORBA EMS-NMS Functional Req’ts & I/F,Billing, AutoConfguration,
Service Flow-Thru Management•OBF, T1M1, IETF, ATMF, TMF
SecuritySecurity•LAES/CALEA
•TR45
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 29 assuredcommunications™
Can IPTV Repeat the Formula?
ATIS IIF – Principal Functions“a much larger ecosystem”
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 30 assuredcommunications™
Competing/ComplimentaryMobile Video Terrestrial Delivery
Packet Cellular Video Mobile Broadcast Television
Washington, DC
• One-to-One, point-to-point• Services: short video clips• Global infrastructure: >$1000B• Cellular tower sites: >1 million
• One-to-millions, point-to-multipoint• Services: broadcast TV, video on demand
• Projected infrastructure cost: $30B• Projected broadcast sites: <100,000
“An even larger Ecosystem”
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 31 assuredcommunications™
Mobile TVNetworkOperationsCenter
Local Mobile TV Transmitter
Local Content
Local Mobile TV Transmitter
On-Demand Programming Order
IP Content Server
H.264 or VC-1Transcoder
Multiplexer
DRM/Subscription/V.O.D. Servers
MPEG-2 ProgramsMPEG-2 ProgramsMPEG-2 Programs
MulticastVideo
Network Distribution
3G Network
SubscribedUnicast Content
Broadcast Mobile TV Framework
Product Key:
Mobile TV Transmitters
Encoding & Multiplexing
Servers, Routers, DAs
Content Management
Network Management
Microwave Links
Cellular Networks
Traf
fic &
Bill
ing
Syst
ems
SubscribedMulticast Content
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 32 assuredcommunications™
Mobile TV Reference Architecture
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 33 assuredcommunications™
Charting the Course to Successful Mobile TV Deployment
1. Air Interfaces & Devices can be a 6 year proposition– Repeat the Success of WiFi, DSL, xG Cellular
2. Leverage IPTV Ecosystem and Convergence learning
3. Harness the Ad-based Revenue Engine
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 34 assuredcommunications™
M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – Page 35 assuredcommunications™
Questions?
Marlis HumphreyDirector Strategic Marketing - TelcoHarris Broadcast Communications