Pilot Application Adaptive Design & Assessment Policy Tool (ADAPTool) British Columbia ... ·...

Pilot Application

Adaptive Design & Assessment Policy Tool

(ADAPTool)

British Columbia Ministry of Agriculture Marine Fisheries and Seafood Program

Prepared by: B.C. Ministry of Agriculture Climate Action TeamInternational Institute for Sustainable DevelopmentNatural and Social Capital ProgramAdaptive Resource Management Ltd

Prepared for:B.C. Ministry of Agriculture B.C. Ministry of Environment(Climate Action Secretariat)

December 2013

© 2014 The International Institute for Sustainable DevelopmentPublished by the International Institute for Sustainable Development.

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Pilot Application Adaptive Design & Assessment Policy Tool (ADAPTool): British Columbia Ministry of Agriculture Marine Fisheries and Seafood Program

December 2013

With support from Natural Resources Canada through the Adaptation Platform

2013 ADAPTool PILOT APPLICATIONAdaptive Design & Assessment Policy Tool (ADAPTool) British Columbia Ministry of Agriculture Marine Fisheries and Seafood Program

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For more information on climate change impacts and adaptation in Canada, please visit: Adaptation.NRCan.gc.ca

www.iisd.org

2013 ADAPTool APPLICATIONBritish Columbia Ministry of Agriculture Marine Fisheries and Seafood Program

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Project Delivery Team

Samantha Charlton (Ministry of Agriculture Climate Action Team) led the B.C. ADAPTool pilot assessment for the fisheries program and was lead author of this report.

Ian McLachlan (Ministry of Agriculture Climate Action Team Lead) provided review and coordinated this report with the ADAPTool assessment of the ministry’s agriculture programs (described in a separate report).

Stephen Tyler (IISD/Adaptive Resource Management) provided project coordination, technical expertise and training on adaptive policy-making and the ADAPTool, contributed to analysis and co-authored this report.

Willow Minaker and Jennifer Pouliotte (Ministry of Environment) coordinated the B.C. component and the co-funding contributions to this Natural Resources Canada project and provided feedback and adaptation policy guidance. Willow organized the Victoria training workshop.

Acknowledgements

We thank the following program leads and staff for their engagement with this pilot: Barron Carswell, Larry Nielsen, Charlie Twaddle, Dennis Chalmers, Myron Roth and Sean Cheesman. Contractors Bud Graham and Bob Williams also provided important expert input.

We appreciate the guidance and advice received from Matthew Wiens, who led the Manitoba ADAPTool pilot in 2012.

Thanks to Carly Haycroft for providing peer review and to Selma Low for finalizing the report.


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Executive Summary

1. Introduction

This pilot of the Adaptive Design and Assessment Policy Tool (ADAPTool) for the B.C. Ministry of Agriculture Marine Fisheries and Seafood Program has been undertaken through a partnership involving funding from Natural Resources Canada, adaptive policy expertise from the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), funding and staff support from the B.C. Climate Action Secretariat (CAS) and in-kind staff contributions from the B.C. Ministry of Agriculture.

The objective of the pilot was to test the application of the ADAPTool in the B.C. context, to provide the ministry with a systematic assessment and understanding of the potential for its policies and programs to support climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector, and to raise awareness and “mainstream” consideration of adaptation across the ministry. The pilot aligns with the B.C. government’s climate change adaptation strategy. The pilot also aligns with B.C. Agrifoods: A strategy for growth because successful adaptation will be required for the sectoral economic growth envisioned in the strategy.

Because the stressors and associated vulnerabilities for fisheries and seafood are very different than those for land-based agriculture, the assessment for the program was done separately from the ADAPTool pilot for the ministry’s agricultural programs.

2. Adaptive Program Assessment

Policies and programs that are adaptable to changing external conditions can better avoid unexpected failures and unintended consequences, and more readily take advantage of new opportunities. The ADAPTool provides an assessment of the extent to which the policies or programs are adaptable. The tool also helps analysts assess whether policies and programs support sectoral adaptation to a particular stressor. While the tool can be applied to any stressor, and in relation to any public policy domain, this application focuses on climate change and the B.C. government Marine Fisheries and Seafood Program.

3. B.C. Fisheries Sector Vulnerabilities

Fisheries and seafood sector vulnerabilities were determined through background research and discussion with experts. The vulnerability assessment also identified adaptation actions that fisheries and seafood sector operators could be expected to take in response to these vulnerabilities.

4. Key Findings

The overall program assessment summary is shown in Table ES1. The Marine Fisheries and Seafood Program was not developed with the specific intent to support adaptation to climate change. In that respect, this assessment is not an evaluation of the current program, as it does not consider the program’s objectives and intent. The assessment results are not meant to suggest deficiencies or failures in the program, but rather to flag measures that could make it more adaptable and contribute more to sectoral adaptation if climate change is to be a significant policy driver for future programming.


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TABLE ES1: PROGRAM ASSESSMENT SUMMARY

ADAPTIVE POLICY QUESTIONS SCORES

Ability to Support Anticipated Adaptation Needs (Planned Adaptability score out of 10) 4

Are anticipated adaptation actions supported by the program? 1

Is the program itself vulnerable to the stressor? 0

Can the existing program enhance the capacity of participants within each sector to undertake the anticipated adaptation actions? 1

Was multistakeholder deliberation used in the design of the program? 1

Do the policies have a regular formal policy review? 1

Program's Ability to Enable Sector Responses to Unanticipated Events (Autonomous Adaptability score out of 10) 5

Is multistakeholder deliberation used in the implementation of the policy? 1

Does the policy enable self-organization and social networking? 1

Is decision making for policy implementation adequately decentralized? 1

Is there adequate variety in the suite of policies and programs directed at the policy issue? 1

Do the policies have a regular formal policy review? 1

Overall Adaptive Capacity 1

Note: Scores range from 0 to 2. High scores (none here) are flagged green and indicate the program is contributing to adaptation needs. Low scores are flagged red, indicating that the program is not contributing to planned and autonomous adaptability. Scores in-between are flagged yellow, signifying partial contribution to adaptability.

The Marine Fisheries and Seafood Program resources are only applied to institutional tools and research and information tools. Since the portfolio is not diverse, it scored a 1 and is considered to be partially adaptive. Diversifying into other types of policy tools would raise the overall adaptive capacity of the program.

Potential adaptation actions that are directly supported by this group’s work are:

• A shift to more abundant or acidification-resistant species (sector: shellfish; vulnerability: decrease in calcification rate).

• Increasing the flexibility and shortening the assessment phase of new fisheries development to access new opportunities in both shellfish and non-anadromous commercial species (sector: shellfish; vulnerabilities: changes to reproductive cycle and capacity of species of commercial value to adapt; sector: non-anadromous species; vulnerability: changes in fisheries species [e.g., possible increase in anchovies, Albacore, sardines]).

• Accessing-higher value markets. (sector: anadromous species; vulnerability: reduced yields).


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Table of Contents

Project Delivery Team ........................................................................................................................................................................................ iii

Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................................................................................ iii

Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................................iv

1.0 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1

1.1 B.C. Climate Adaptation Strategy ..................................................................................................................................................2

1.2 Goals ........................................................................................................................................................................................................2

2.0 What is Adaptive Policy Making/Programming ...............................................................................................................................3

3.0 Scope of the Policy Analysis .....................................................................................................................................................................3

4.0 Climate Change Stressors and Impacts .............................................................................................................................................. 4

4.1 Changes in Oceanographic Conditions ....................................................................................................................................... 4

4.2 Ocean Acidification ........................................................................................................................................................................... 4

4.3 Sea-Level Rise...................................................................................................................................................................................... 4

4.4 Increased Storms and Rainfall ........................................................................................................................................................5

4.5 Changes to Hydrology .......................................................................................................................................................................5

4.6 Freshwater/Seawater-Temperature Rise ....................................................................................................................................5

4.7 Changes to the Hydrograph (flow of waters)........................................................................................................................... 6

5.0 Jurisdiction .....................................................................................................................................................................................................7

6.0 Vulnerability Analysis ................................................................................................................................................................................ 8

7.0 Results of Adaptability Assessment .....................................................................................................................................................11

7.1 Summary of Results ...........................................................................................................................................................................11

7.2 Direct Adaptation Support ..............................................................................................................................................................12

7.3 Indirect Adaptation Support...........................................................................................................................................................14

7.4 Lessons Learned .................................................................................................................................................................................14

9.0 Summary and Conclusions .....................................................................................................................................................................15

References .............................................................................................................................................................................................................16


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1.0 Introduction

This pilot of the Adaptive Design and Assessment Policy Tool (ADAPTool) for B.C. agriculture has been undertaken through a partnership involving funding from Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), adaptive policy expertise from the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), funding and staff support from the B.C. Climate Action Secretariat (CAS) and in-kind staff contributions from the B.C. Ministry of Agriculture.

The pilot is intended to broaden the application of the ADAPTool; to provide the ministry with baseline understanding of the potential for its policies and programs to support climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector; and to generate related discussion, networking and understanding among key staff, program leads and colleagues in other ministries.

The pilot aligns with the B.C. government’s climate adaptation strategy and the Ministry of Agriculture’s 2013–2018 focus on climate change adaptation. The pilot also aligns with B.C. Agrifoods: A strategy for growth, because climate change presents significant risks and opportunities for the industry, and successful adaptation will be required for the sectoral growth envisioned in the strategy (Ministry of Agriculture, 2012).

This assessment covers the Marine Fisheries and Seafood policy unit and its function of managing the Marine Fisheries and Seafood Program. This unit is located in Victoria, B.C. At the completion of the assessment, the group consisted of three staff in Victoria and one based in Nanaimo. This group is involved in setting B.C. government policy direction with respect to commercial fisheries and seafood. It also represents the interests of the province in areas of federal and international jurisdiction so that the industry can achieve maximum economic returns in a sustainable manner.

The Province of B.C. has very limited jurisdiction for fisheries management, so climate change adaptation will primarily be the responsibility of the federal Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO). The federal government will need to adapt its fisheries management policies to accommodate climate change. This will happen in a number of ways through adaptive management practices that optimize short-term gains but manage for the future, which may include alternative ways of managing existing fisheries (e.g., identifying hatchery locations appropriate in future climate scenarios, and adjusting quotas and tenures to reflect anticipated changes to fish stocks and flows in future climate scenarios) and also looking for new fishery opportunities that may emerge with a changing climate.

The B.C. Ministry of Agriculture Marine Fisheries and Seafood policy unit is responsible for:

1. Maintaining and enhancing the role of the Province of B.C. as an influential and credible partner in aquaculture, and commercial and recreational fisheries management

2. Policy and intergovernmental relations

3. Investment in program partnerships, design and delivery

4. Intergovernmental agreements and processes

The ADAPTool assessment process is described further below. In summary, the process consisted of defining climate change impacts, conducting an assessment of the sector’s vulnerabilities to those impacts, describing adaptation actions that respond to these vulnerabilities and scoring the policy unit’s work on its ability to support both these anticipated adaptation responses and any unanticipated vulnerabilities and associated responses.


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In the ADAPTool policy assessment interview, the discussion repeatedly returned to the limitations of this group’s jurisdiction. While almost every adaptation action was relevant to the program area, and there were many adaptation actions where the unit is able to provide indirect support, the actions for which the unit has direct influence or a direct effect were limited.

1.1 BC Climate Adaptation Strategy

In 2010 the B.C. government released its climate change adaptation strategy.1 The strategy has three key goals for provincial government agencies:

1. Building a strong foundation of knowledge by:

• Engaging with research institutions to ensure they produce the scientific information needed by decision-makers

• Developing adaptation planning tools for decision-makers

• Continuing knowledge transfer and outreach activities

2. Making adaptation part of government’s business by:

• Incorporating adaptation into service plans and business planning

• Integrating adaptation into government policies, legislation and regulations

• Strengthening cross-government coordination and work with partners outside government

3. Assessing risks and implementing priority adaptation actions in sectors sensitive to climate change, such as agriculture.

1.2 Goals

For the B.C. government, the purpose of the ADAPTool pilot is to help mainstream climate change adaptation into existing and proposed policies, programs and regulations. There are two main objectives:

1. To identify existing policies and programs that are particularly well-suited for supporting adaptation efforts, to show potential gaps and to identify ways to address gaps or further strengthen programs.

2. To understand the adaptability of existing policies or programs and their ability to adjust as the anticipated and unanticipated impacts of climate change unfold.

1 Preparing for Climate Change: British Columbia’s Adaptation Strategy is available at: http://www.livesmartbc.ca/attachments/Adaptation_Strategy.pdf


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2.0 What is Adaptive Policy/Programming?

Over the past several decades, there has been growing recognition that public policies2 intended to achieve stated objectives can, even if well-designed, lead to unintended consequences as conditions change (Swanson et al., 2010). Public policy operates in a dynamic and complex adaptive system. Work in the policy domain includes new external factors, changing economic and market conditions, new information, changing technology and evolving networks of exchange. Public policy is part of this complex adaptive system, but does not control it. With increased global interconnection, dynamic economic conditions, shifting climate and rapid changes in technologies, the resulting complexity and pace of change make outcomes difficult to anticipate. As conditions change, policies may become less effective for their originally intended purposes or may have unintended side effects. Ideally, policy-makers would want their policies to be adaptive to avoid policy failures.

IISD collaborated with The Energy Research Institute (TERI) in India on a four-year research project that explored case studies of policies in the agriculture and natural resource management sectors in India and Canada. In these studies, they identified characteristics of adaptive policies based on evidence of their actual performance. The results are described in the book Creating Adaptive Policies: A Guide for Policy-Making in an Uncertain World (Swanson & Bhadwal, 2009).

This research identified seven policy characteristics that were adaptable to changing conditions. Some of these characteristics are designed to build in adaptability to anticipated change and projected future conditions, while others are useful in helping policies adapt to unanticipated conditions. The ADAPTool version used in this pilot project is structured around these seven characteristics. Different questions in the tool are used to assess and score policies in relation to these factors. The seven characteristics are: 1) integrated and forward-looking analysis, 2) multistakeholder deliberation, 3) automatic policy adjustment, 4) self-organization and social networking, 5) decentralization of decision-making, 6) promoting variation and 7) formal policy review and continuous learning.

3.0 Scope of the Policy Analysis

This analysis examines the adaptability of the ministry’s policies and programs in the fisheries and seafood sector in relation to climate change, as well as the extent to which they support adaptive actions likely to be taken in the sector. Because the fisheries and seafood sector is very different than the subsectors of the agriculture industry, with different impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation actions, the assessment was conducted separately from the assessments of agricultural programs.

2 For the purposes of this document, there is no distinction made between policy, program, strategy and initiative. The terms are used interchangeably.


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4.0 Climate Change Stressors and Impacts

The primary climate change stressors of interest for the marine fisheries and seafood sector were: changes in oceanographic conditions (upwelling, currents), ocean acidification, sea-level rise, increased storms and rainfall, changes to hydrology, freshwater-temperature rise and changes to the hydrograph (snowpack). It is important for climate change adaptation that programming and policy related to marine fisheries and seafood supports, rather than hinders, adaptive capacity. It is important to note that the following are highly simplified summaries of the climate change stressors and are based on climate model predictions. This report is not primarily about the impacts of climate change on fisheries; the short summaries below, as well as impacts and potential adaptations, are based on information from other sources.3

4.1 Changes in Oceanographic Conditions

Freshwater input to the ocean changes the salinity, and hence the density, of seawater. Thus, changes in the hydrological cycle can change the density-driven (“thermohaline”) ocean circulation and its feedback on climate. This circulation has a substantial impact on surface temperature, precipitation and sea level.

4.2 Ocean Acidification

Ocean acidification is the process whereby carbon dioxide (CO2) is absorbed from the atmosphere into the oceans, causing a shift in its carbonate chemistry and resulting in an increase of hydrogen ions (H+) and a decrease in carbonate ions (CO3

2-) in seawater. Recent models predict that by 2100, oceanic pH could decrease by an additional 0.6 units (Illyina, Zeebe, Maier-Reimer & Heinze, 2009). Changes in ocean chemistry due to elevated CO2 directly affect the ability of marine organisms to form shell material (integral to their survival), due to lowered saturation indices for both calcite and aragonite. The increase in available carbon in the ocean will also mean that macroalgae can photosynthesize and grow at a faster rate. This will further affect reefs and food webs (International Geosphere-Biosphere Program, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission & Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research, 2013).

4.3 Sea-Level Rise

Sea levels are expected to rise up to 80 centimetres in Nanaimo and up to 120 centimetres in the Fraser Delta by 2100 (Ministry of the Environment, 2013). This would have a number of impacts, including dike breaching and increased saltwater intrusion into current freshwater systems, which would affect spawning grounds and species’ life cycles. Sea-level rise may also potentially create more available habitat space for macroalgae to grow, as more land area will be inundated with water.

3 The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency provides information about climate change, projections and impacts at the agency’s website: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/future.html. For further information about climate change stressors, impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation, see the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment report: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html. For information about climate stressors and impacts on marine fisheries, see Okey et al. (2012).


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4.4 Increased Storms and Rainfall

The predicted increase in the frequency of severe weather events such as cyclones, storms and floods will bring an influx of nutrients into the marine ecosystem, which will affect the growth and reproduction of some species. Cyclones and storms can also destroy habitats like reefs and kelp forests. An increase in storm frequency would also result in shorter windows of moderate weather during which these sensitive habitats could recover.

4.5 Changes to Hydrology

Climate warming observed over the past several decades is consistently associated with changes in a number of components of the hydrological cycle and hydrological systems, such as: changing precipitation patterns, increased intensity and extremes, widespread melting of snow and ice, increased atmospheric water vapour, increased evaporation, and changes in soil moisture and runoff. These changes will all affect fish habitats.4

4.6 Freshwater/Seawater-Temperature Rise

The average global temperature has risen by about 0.6°C over the past century. In the oceans, the temperature change has been about 0.1°C. This warming has occurred from the surface to a depth of about 700 metres, where most marine life thrives (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], 2007).5 Areas of B.C.’s waters have been warming at a rate more than twice the global average (LiveSmartBC, n.d.). Rising sea temperatures in any particular location will affect the distribution of species and potential migration routes. Changes in temperatures could also lead to changes in the life cycles of these species, and, although there is limited available evidence on this topic, the consequences of these changes could affect food webs. Globally, organisms predicted to be most vulnerable to temperature change are coral and krill. Krill are an extremely important link at the lower levels of the food chain. Research has shown that krill reproduce in significantly smaller numbers when ocean temperatures rise. This can have a cascading effect by disrupting trophic-level interactions, which would result in food shortages for higher predators, for example, by disrupting the life cycle of the many small fish that eat krill eaters (National Geographic, 2013).

4 There is still substantial uncertainty about trends in hydrological variables because of large regional differences, and because of limitations in the spatial and temporal coverage of monitoring networks. Evaporative demand, or “potential evaporation”, is projected to increase almost everywhere. This is because the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere increases with higher temperatures, but relative humidity is not projected to change markedly. The water vapour deficit in the atmosphere increases as a result, as does the evaporation rate.5 IPCC AR4 WG1 2007 Section 5: Executive Summary


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4.7 Changes to the Hydrograph (Flow of Waters)

Glacier and ice cap reduction could affect the flow of rivers, affecting fish habitat. The cryosphere (consisting of snow, ice and frozen ground) on land stores about 75 per cent of the world’s freshwater (IPCC, 2007). In the climate system, the cryosphere and its changes are intricately linked to the surface energy budget, the water cycle and sea-level change.6 Snow cover has decreased in most regions, especially in spring and summer. Degradation of permafrost and seasonally frozen ground is leading to changes in land surface characteristics and drainage systems. Freeze-up and break-up dates for river and lake ice are also changing. The changes in temperature and stream flow are likely to mean more favourable conditions for some species and less favourable conditions for others, in different reaches of any given river basin. A major issue for B.C. is the potential vulnerability of late-season salmon runs in the Fraser Basin, which will be affected both by declining flow rates and warmer water temperatures.

6 The surface energy budget is how much sunlight the land, oceans and atmosphere absorb, and how much heat the planet radiates back to space.


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5.0 Jurisdiction

Provincial jurisdiction as it relates to fisheries and seafood includes jurisdiction over the management of fish and fisheries in non-tidal waters, including inland waters, beds of watercourses or shorelines (this jurisdiction is shared between the Ministry of Environment; the Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations [FLNRO]; and the Ministry of Agriculture).7 Canada’s provinces cannot make regulatory decisions concerning fish habitat. The provincial government licenses marine plant cultivation and issues tenures where operations take place on Crown land, licences for fish processing, buying and vending, oversees marketing and industry development, and maintains the mandate to protect the provincial public interest in sustainable fisheries and aquaculture development.

The ministry’s marine fisheries and seafood policy group is involved in setting overarching policy in the areas of provincial jurisdiction and interests.

The federal Fisheries Act applies to all fishing zones, territorial seas and inland waters of Canada. The DFO is responsible for developing and implementing policies and programs in support of Canada’s economic, ecological and scientific interests in oceans and inland waters. A driving force behind this mandate is the DFO’s Sustainable Fisheries Framework which focuses on conservation and sustainable use of Canada’s fisheries resources while providing safe, effective and environmentally sound marine services that are responsive to the needs of Canadians in a global economy.8

7 The Ministry of Agriculture is responsible for the overall leadership of provincial government strategies and initiatives related to ocean resources and marine fisheries, as well as seafood industry development. The FLNRO Fish and Wildlife Branch establishes legislation, policies and procedures for managing freshwater fishing activities, and for the allocation of fish resources for recreational and commercial use. The goal of the provincial Freshwater Fisheries Program is to conserve the natural diversity of fish and fish habitat and to sustainably manage freshwater sport fishing in B.C. The province exercises delegated authority under the federal Fisheries Act for the management of non-salmon freshwater fisheries.8 More information can be found at the DFO website: http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fm-gp/peches-fisheries/fish-ren-peche/sff-cpd/overview-cadre-eng.htm


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6.0 Vulnerability Analysis

Five fishery subsectors were selected for the analysis, and the following list of vulnerabilities was identified through a combination of background research and expert input from the unit. A draft vulnerability analysis was presented to five individuals from the Marine Fisheries and Seafood policy unit in a meeting and the table was revised.9 Table 1 should not be considered exhaustive, as the inclusion of the marine fisheries and seafood unit in the B.C. pilot of the ADAPTool was experimental.

TABLE 1: VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS

FISHERIES SUBSECTOR VULNERABILITY

Shellfish

• Reduction in commercially valuable species• Decrease in calcification rate• Changes to habitat• Changes in shellfish distribution• Lack of hatcheries in B.C. to source product• Declining harvests and revenues• Changes to species life cycles and food webs• Changes to reproductive cycles• Capacity of species of commercial value to adapt• Compression of intertidal level

Marine Plants • Increase in production of some species of macro algae (kelp)

Anadromous Species

• Reduction of yield• Increase in freshwater temperatures will reduce recruitment rates; increase in variability of

fisheries• Changes to distribution of fisheries• Reduction in profitability• Vulnerability of infrastructure and communities to flooding, sea-level rise and storm surges• Increase in dangers of fishing• Changes in allocation will hit commercial fisheries first• Extinction of some salmon species or runs

Non-Anadromous Species

• Reduction of yields• Increase in variability of fisheries abundance• Changes in distribution of fisheries• Reduction in profitability• Increase in dangers of fishing• Changes in fisheries species

Aquaculture • Changes to water quality conditions in ocean• Increase in variability could increase costs

All/General • Climate change impacts are compounded by marketing challenges

The vulnerability analysis also identified anticipated adaptation actions to be taken by the sector in response to each of the vulnerabilities listed above. These are shown in Table 2.

9 The “rapid vulnerability assessment” was conducted with the marine fisheries and seafood group on March 20, 2013, led by report author Samantha Charlton. Background information was provided to the group on March 15, 2013 (meeting invitation sent by Samantha Charlton).


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TABLE 2: ANTICIPATED CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITIES BY FISHERIES SUBSECTOR AREA AND CORRESPONDING ANTICIPATED ADAPTATION ACTIONS.

SHELLFISH

Vulnerability Potential Adaptation Action

Reduction in commercially valuable species Access higher value markets/shifting targeted species

Decrease in calcification rate Shift to more abundant or acidification-resistant species

Changes to habitat Employ geographic separation of hatcheries

Changes in shellfish distribution Build shellfish hatcheries

No hatcheries in B.C. to source product Have species cultured

Declining harvests and fisheries revenues Access higher-value markets/shift targeted species

Changes to species life cycles and food webs Shifts in production

Changes to reproductive cycle Increase the flexibility and shorten the assessment phase of emerging fisheries development to access new opportunities

Capacity of species of commercial value to adaptIncrease the flexibility and shorten the assessment phase of new emerging fisheries development to access new opportunities

Compression of the intertidal level means compression of shellfish growing area and sea-level rise flooding means upland owners will harden the shoreline with infrastructure (i.e., retaining walls and diking)

Reduce intertidal growing areas in the south coast of British Columbia, increasing the availability (tenures) of intertidal growing areas in other more remote locations

MARINE PLANTS


Increase the production of some species of macro algae Desire for increased marine plant harvest licences and product development

ANADROMOUS SPECIES


Reduction of yield Access higher-value markets

Increase in freshwater temperatures will reduce recruitment rates for anadromous fish (salmon)

Build hatcheries and captive brood stock programs, increase aquaculture production of salmon

Increase in variability of fisheries Diversify livelihood portfolio

Changes to distribution of fisheries (including pole-ward shift of some species ranges)

Migrate fishing efforts/strategies

Migrate processing/distribution facilities

Diversifying into other species

Reduction in profitability Exit the fishery or focus on other ways to maintain profits

Vulnerability of infrastructure and communities to flooding, sea-level rise and storm surges

Add new or improved physical flood and coastal defences

Managed retreat/accommodation

Rehabilitate infrastructure, design disaster response

Set up early warning systems, education

Increase in dangers of fishing Invest in improved vessel stability, safety and communications

Changes in allocation will hit commercial fishery first Fishers will seek compensation

Extinction of some salmon species or runs Exit the fishery


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NON-ANADROMOUS SPECIES


Reduction of yield

Access higher-value markets

Shift targeted species

Increase effort or fishing power

Reduce costs to increase efficiency

Diversify livelihoods

Exit the fishery

Obtain multiple licences

Processors: source material from other jurisdictions

Increase in variability of fisheriesDiversify livelihood portfolio

Engage with insurance schemes

Changes in distribution of fisheries (including pole-ward shift of species ranges)

Migrate fishing efforts/strategies

Migrate processing/distribution facilities

Diversify into other species

Reduction in profitability Exit the fishery or focus on other ways to maintain profits

Vulnerability of infrastructure and communities to flooding, sea-level rise and storm surges

Add new or improved physical flood and coastal defences

Managed retreat/accommodation

Rehabilitate infrastructure, design disaster response

Set up early-warning systems, education

Increase in dangers of fishing Invest in improved vessel stability, safety and communications

Changes in fisheries species Increase the flexibility and shorten the assessment phase of new fisheries development to access new opportunities

AQUACULTURE


Changes in water quality conditions in ocean

Change location of operation

Farm different species

Increase control and management of environment

Buy tenures elsewhere

Increase in costs due to increased variabilityUse waste energy from other sources to cut costs

Locate in urban areas or close to airports to cut transportation costs

ALL / GENERAL


Climate change impacts compounded by marketing challenges

Switch to aquaculture for more control over environmental conditions

Access different markets

Change product type


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7.0 Results of Adaptability Assessment

7.1 Summary of Results

The Marine Fisheries and Seafood Program scores 1 out of 2 for overall adaptive capacity. The program ranks a moderate 4 out of 10 points in its ability to support the sector’s anticipated adaptation needs. It also ranks a moderate 5 out of 10 in its ability to enable sector responses to unanticipated events. Scores for each program characteristic range from 0 to 2. Low scores are flagged red, indicating that the suite of policies does not contribute to planned and autonomous adaptability. High scores are flagged green and indicate that the program is contributing to adaptation needs. Scores in between are flagged yellow, signifying partial contribution to overall adaptability. The scoring is shown in Table 3.

TABLE 3: ADAPTIVE POLICY/PROGRAM ASSESSMENT QUESTIONS

ADAPTIVE POLICY QUESTIONS SCORES* COMMENTS

Ability to Support Anticipated Adaptation Needs (Planned Adaptability)

4 Total Score (score out of 10)

Are anticipated adaptation actions supported by the program? 1

Because fisheries are mostly in the federal jurisdiction and also involve other B.C. ministries, such as the Ministry of Environment, the program assessed is primarily limited to an influencing role on adaptation actions and does not offer direct support.

Is the program itself vulnerable to the stressor? 0

The program is vulnerable in terms of resourcing relative to needs. Anything that changes the number, distribution and species mix of fish in the ocean affects this program area.

Can the existing program enhance the capacity of participants in each subsector to undertake the anticipated adaptation actions?

1

The program links people to resources, equating to indirect support. The program directly supports people with access to relevant technology, access to relevant information and skills, and access to institutions and networks. The program has no role in access to infrastructure; it has an indirect role in ensuring equitable access to resources. In total, the score for these different types of support averages to a 1.

Was multistakeholder deliberation used in the design of the program? 1 Since the “program” is essentially a suite of activities that inform and build

policy, multiple stakeholders are constantly engaged and involved.

Does the program have a regular formal policy review? 1 The program is often evaluated informally. At the time of the interview (April

2013) it was undergoing its first formal review in 30 years.

Policy’s Ability to Enable Sector Responses to Unanticipated Events (Autonomous Adaptability)

5 Total Score (score out of 10)

Is multistakeholder deliberation used in the implementation of the policy/program?

1 Licensing formed through this program is formed with multistakeholder deliberation.

Does the program enable self-organization and social networking? 1 The policy group has been involved intermittently in social networking

projects and in an advisory capacity to fisher-organized associations.


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Is decision making for program implementation adequately decentralized?

1 Although the decision-makers are very centralized, this program makes use of networks in order to be extremely inclusive.

Is there adequate variety in the suite of policies and programs directed at the policy issue?

1 Two types of policy instruments are utilized. (See Additional Analysis below).

Do the policies have a regular formal policy review? 1 The program is often evaluated informally. At the time of the interview (April

2013) it was undergoing its first formal review in 30 years.

Overall Adaptive Policy 1 Average of all Scores

* Scores range from 0 to 2. High scores are flagged green and indicate the program is contributing to adaptation needs. Low scores are flagged red, indicating that the program is not contributing to planned and autonomous adaptability. Scores in between are flagged yellow, signifying partial contribution to adaptability.

7.2 Direct Adaptation Support

Potential adaptation actions that are directly supported by the work of this group are:

• A shift to more abundant or acidification-resistant species (sector: shellfish; vulnerability: decrease in calcification rate).

• Increasing the flexibility and shortening the assessment phase of new fisheries development to access new opportunities in both shellfish and non-anadromous commercial species (sector: shellfish; vulnerabilities: changes to reproductive cycle and capacity of species of commercial value to adapt; sector: non-anadromous species; vulnerability: changes in fisheries species [e.g., possible increase in anchovies, Albacore, sardines]).

• Accessing higher-value markets. The group works on trade policy negotiations. This action also involves the ministry’s agriculture market development group (sector: anadromous species; vulnerability: reduced yields).

The adaptive capacity analysis in the table above (which informed the question: Can the existing program enhance the capacity of participants within each sector to undertake the anticipated adaptation actions?) shows that programs of this type that work with the industry may provide significant support in directing operators (commercial, recreational and sport/tourism fisheries) to relevant resources to build their capacity (e.g., sources of financing, new technologies, improved infrastructure, networks). The Marine Fisheries and Seafood Program may consider ways to increase its contribution to adaptive capacity in the lower-scoring categories shown in Table 4.


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TABLE 4: CONTRIBUTION TO ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

CONTRIBUTION TO ADAPTIVE CAPACITY SCORES* COMMENTS

Access to financial resources 1 One of the program’s activities is to link people to financial resources.

Access to relevant technology 2 This is the role of one of the industry specialists on the team.

Access to relevant information and skills 2 This is the role of one of the industry specialists on the team. This also relates to the work done with the market-development group.

Access to relevant infrastructure 0 The program does not provide access to infrastructure.

Access to institutions and networks 2The role of one of the team members is focused on building relationships and providing advice. Clients count on the group to get access to different institutions.

Equitable distribution of resources 1One of the lenses through which the group looks at most of the policies that they are trying to influence is whether there is equitable distribution.

*2 – yes; 1 – partially; 0 – no (based on Smit & Pilisofova, 2001)

Another question from the analysis asks: Is there adequate variety in the suite of policies and programs directed at the policy issue? This question addresses the adaptive characteristic of diversity. The following list indicates types of policy instruments. It is important to note that not all of these instruments are available to the Marine Fisheries and Seafood policy group.

1) Regulation and licensing

2) Economic support to operators (insurance, subsidies, income stabilization)

3) Institutional support (networks of operators, input providers, marketing)

4) Research and information

The Marine Fisheries and Seafood Program’s resources are only applied to institutional tools, and research and information tools. Since the portfolio of policy instruments is not diverse, it scores 1 and is considered to be somewhat adaptive. Diversifying into other types of policy and programmatic tools would raise the overall adaptive capacity of the program.

In comparison to other Ministry of Agriculture programs, the Marine Fisheries and Seafood Program is limited in both its own ability to adapt and its support for sectoral adaptation. This is because: 1) it has limited jurisdiction and authority, 2) it is small and has few resources relative to likely increases in demand generated by climate change and 3) it has limited policy and programming tools in its portfolio with which to influence sector activities or mitigate climate impacts. The pace of change in this sector is likely to increase as a result of changes to habitat and to markets and technology. Climate change will exacerbate stresses on operators and challenge the industry to adapt quickly. Due to high vulnerability to climate change, limited jurisdiction and limited resources, this program is less adaptable than many of the others assessed by the B.C. Ministry of Agriculture.


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7.3 Indirect Adaptation Support

The Marine Fisheries and Seafood Program has an indirect role in the majority of anticipated adaptation actions listed in Table 3. Although most of the identified actions are in the jurisdiction of the DFO, the Marine Fisheries and Seafood policy group exerts an influence over DFO policy to varying degrees, depending on the adaptation action. Similarly, in the case of the anticipated adaptation actions that are primarily business decisions by the private sector, the group can indirectly influence and support decision making through its industry specialist role.

In the ADAPTool assessment process, interviewees referred to a number of examples that illustrate indirect adaptation support:

• The group indirectly supported the building of shellfish hatcheries and broodstock programs through helping to obtain funding, participating in planning and obtaining land access.

• The group indirectly influences DFO policy related to the adaptation actions of: shifting production, diversifying livelihood portfolios, diversifying into other species, migrating fishing efforts/strategies, and increasing fishing effort and power.

• Through activities such as writing letters of support, the group has served a supporting role in adaptation actions that reduce costs and increase efficiencies (e.g., through electronic monitoring of the crab fleet or 100 per cent monitoring of the groundfish industry at sea).

• In relation to processing, the group played a supporting role in the adaptation actions by sourcing material from other jurisdictions (e.g., salmon from Alaska) and fishers obtaining multiple licences (DFO jurisdiction) to respond to the migration of processing facilities and a multitude of effects on processing inputs.

• Also related to processing, the group is looking at the idea of licensing processing at sea, which indirectly supports the adaptation action to migrate processing and distribution facilities.

• The DFO has final authority in the aquaculture sector, but this group has a strong influencing role as the leading group for aquaculture policy in the province. Adaptation actions may involve changes to tenures, locations of operations and species.

7.4 Lessons Learned in the Fisheries and Seafood Application of the ADAPTool

The interviewees indicated that that the ADAPTool process provided a useful opportunity to consider how fisheries could be managed by the DFO in response to climate change stressors. The tool allowed participants to think about the impacts of the policies within which they work, and also to consider how their team might support and/or affect DFO’s management practices in light of climate change.

The tool worked well to prompt discussion and awareness of key climate change impacts to the sector, likely adaptation actions and the program’s ability to support or hinder these adaptation actions. The initial rapid assessment involved five individuals, who together comprised almost the entire program group. The discussion and vulnerability assessment that resulted from that meeting was informative for the group and for the assessors. The program assessment was carried out with two interviewers and two interviewees, who were part of the larger group that participated in the rapid assessment. The program assessment allowed the interviewees to reflect on their past, current and potential role in relation to the list of 54 adaptation actions. Scores were given based primarily on current involvement, but the associated commentary also captured where there had historically been a greater potential to support adaptation actions. The discussion repeatedly returned to the limitations of the group’s jurisdiction: while almost every adaptation action is relevant to the program area, there are few actions for which the group has a direct influence or effect.


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8.0 Summary and Conclusions

• The pace of change in this sector is likely to increase as a result of changes to habitat, markets and technology. Climate change will exacerbate stresses on operators and challenge the industry to adapt quickly.

• The program provides a moderate level of support for both anticipated adaptation needs and sectoral responses to unanticipated events.

• The program itself is vulnerable to climate change, in the sense that it has limited resources, but climate change will potentially have a very significant effect on the number, distribution and species mix of fish in the sea—all of which affect this program area.

• The program’s resources are applied primarily to institutional tools (supporting networks of operators, input providers, marketing), and, to some degree, research and information tools. Contributing to research and information tools focused on climate change adaptation, and/or diversifying into other types of policy/programmatic tools (such as infrastructure support), would raise the overall adaptive capacity of the program.

• In comparison to other Ministry of Agriculture programs, the fisheries and seafood program is limited in both its own ability to adapt and its support for sectoral adaptation. This is because: 1) the ministry has limited jurisdiction and authority in this area, 2) the program is small relative to likely increases in demand generated by climate change and 3) the program has limited policy and programming tools in its portfolio with which to influence sector activities or mitigate climate impacts.


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References

Illyina, T., Zeebe, R. E., Maier-Reimer, E., & Heinze, C. (2009). Early detection of ocean acidifcation effects on marine calcification. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 23(11). Retrieved from http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/oceanography/faculty/zeebe_files/Publications/IlyinaGBC09.pdf

International Geosphere-Biosphere Program, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission & Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research. (2013). Ocean acidification summary for policymakers. Paper presented at the Third Symposium on the Ocean in a High-CO2 World. International Geosphere-Biosphere Program, Stockholm, Sweden. Retrieved from http://igbp.sv.internetborder.se/download/18.30566fc6142425d6c91140a/1384420272253/OA_spm2-FULL-lorez.pdf

LiveSmartBC. (n.d.) Effects of climate change. Retrieved from: http://www.livesmartbc.ca/learn/effects.html

Ministry of Agriculture. (2012, July). B.C. Agrifoods: A strategy for growth. Retrieved from http://www.gov.bc.ca/agri/down/bc_agrifoods_strategy.pdf

Ministry of Agriculture. (2013). 2012 British Columbia seafood industry year in review. Retrieved from http://www.agf.gov.bc.ca/stats/YinReview/Seafood-YIR-2012.pdf

Ministry of Environment. (2010, February). Preparing for climate change: British Columbia’s adaptation strategy. Retrieved from http://www.livesmartbc.ca/attachments/Adaptation_Strategy.pdf

Ministry of Environment. (2013). Sea Level Rise. Retrieved from http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/cas/adaptation/sea_level.html

National Geographic. (2013). Sea Temperature Rise. Retrieved from http://ocean.nationalgeographic.com/ocean/critical-issues-sea-temperature-rise/

Okey, T.A., Alidina, H. M., Montenegro, A., Lo, V., & Jessen, S. (2012). Climate change impacts and vulnerabilities in Canada’s Pacfic marine ecosystems. Vancouver, B.C.: CPAWS BC and WWF-Canada. Retrieved from http://cpaws.org/uploads/cpaws_wwf_climate_report.pdf

Smit, B. & Pilifosova, O. (2001). Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity. In J.J. McCarthy and O.F. Canziani (eds.), Climate change 2001: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group III to the 3rd Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (pp. 877–912). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Retrieved from https://www.vie.unu.edu/file/get/9995.pdf

Swanson, D. A. & Bhadwal, S. (Eds.). (2009). Creating adaptive policies: A guide for policy-making in an uncertain world. New Delhi: Sage Publications and Ottawa: IDRC. Retrieved from http://www.iisd.org/publications/pub.aspx?id=1180

Swanson, D., Barg, S., Tyler, S., Venema, H., Tomar, S., Bhadwal, S., & Drexhage, J. (2010). Seven tools for creating adaptive policies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77, 924–939. Retrieved from http://web.missouri.edu/~galatd/AM%20Papers_E&S/Swanson%20et%20al2010_TechForcast&SocialChange77,924_%20Seven%20tools%20for%20creating%20adaptive%20policies.pdf

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