Pics mondiaux production pétrole et gaz - Centre Analyse Strategique 28-10-06
-
Upload
comener-eelv -
Category
Documents
-
view
131 -
download
1
description
Transcript of Pics mondiaux production pétrole et gaz - Centre Analyse Strategique 28-10-06
CENTRE D'ANALYSE STRATEGIQUE
Les pics mondiaux de production du ptrole et du gaz et leurs impacts sur l'avenir des nergiesPierre-Ren BAUQUISProfesseur Associ ENSPM (IFP School) Professeur TPA (TOTAL Professeurs Associs) Expert auprs de l'Acadmie des technologies
CAS - PARIS
28 octobre 2006 1
PARTIE 1
UN POINT SUR LE PICS DU PETROLE ET DU GAZ
CAS - PARIS
28 octobre 2006 2
Brief summary of past findings and views The only "publically available data" on oil reserves are the so called "proven reserves". Unfortunately, they are totally useless to study and predict "Peak Oil". The only "usable" concepts for "peak oil estimation", at oil basins levels, countries levels or world level are : Ultimate reserves concept Evolution of past exploration performances and production curves (creaming curves) King Hubbert methodology (world applicability).
CAS - PARIS
28 octobre 2006 3
PROVEN RESERVES : AN OPTIMISTIC PICTURE1973GTOE Years of consumption GTOE
2000Years of consumption
Oil world reserves Gas world reserves
86 52
30 48
140 140
40 65
Observing the "visible part of the iceberg" leads to conclude that we have plentiful and fast growing oil and gas reserves and that there is no problemCAS - PARIS
28 octobre 2006 4
What the R/P (Reserves/Production) ratio meansWorld oil production (Mbep/d)140 120 100 80 60
??
?
!30 years R/P = 40 years
40
this area = already used20 065 70 75 80 85 90 95
this area = reserves left
00
05
10
15
20
25
30
35
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
CAS - PARIS
205
19
20
20
2
28 octobre 2006
40
But a closer look (at ultimate reserves) suggests a different picture
Ultimate reserves (conventional crude, worldwide)
1973
2000
G barrels
2000 - 3000
2000 - 3000
Between 1973 and 2000, ultimate reserve estimates have practically remained flat.source: PR Bauquis 26-28 novembre 2000 - Global Foundation
CAS - PARIS
28 octobre 2006 6
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
500
Gb
0
CAS - PARIS
1940 1949 1950 1959 1960 1969 1970 1979 1980 1989
Source: IFP/DSEP adapted from Martin (1985) and Campbell (1992) - Updated 200028 octobre 2006 7
HISTORICAL VIEWS ON ULTIMATE RESERVES
1990 2000
Pratt (1942) Duce (1946) Pouge (1946) Weeks (1948) Leverson (1949) Weeks (1949) MacNaughton (1953) Hubbert (1956) Weeks (1958) Weeks (1959) Hendricks (1965) Ryamn (1967) Shell (1968) Weeks (1968) Hubbert (1969) Moody (1970) Weeks (1971) Warman (1972) Bauquis (1972) Schweinfurth (1973) Linden (1973) Bonillas (1974) Howitt (1974) Moody (1975) WEC (1977) Nelson (1977) De Bruyne (1978) Klemme (1978) Nehring (1978) Nehring (1979) Halbouty (1979) Meyerhoff (1979) Roorda (1979) Halbouty (1979) WEC (1980) Strickland (1981) Coliti (1981) Nehring (1982) Masters (1983) Kalinin (1983) Martin (1984) Ivanhoe (1984) Masters (1987) Campbell (1991) Masters (1991) Townes (1993) Petroconsult. (1993) Masters (1994) USGS (2000)
* Cumulative production + proven reserves + possible reserves yet to be discovered
THE IRREVERSIBLE DECLINE OF OIL PRODUCTIONS IN THE USA
(*) Discoveries are registered as per their initially declared sizes and their timing is forwarded by 33 years 28 octobre 2006 CAS - PARIS
Source : King Hubbert 1956 - Updated by Jean Laherrere
8
Oil and condensate discoveries and worldwide production of liquid hydrocarbonsGboe/year (5-year average)
70Deep sea (>500m)
60 50 40
Kashagan / Shah Deniz Classic exploration Liquid HC production
Sources: - Discoveries: IHS (excl. onsh US/Canada and GoM Shelf ) (May 2005) - Production: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2004)
58 Excl. non-conventional oils such as Athabasca and Orenoco
47 39 34 36 32 29
36
30 20 10 01 1 1 0 1 1
26 20 23 21 23 24
27
169
15
20
0.9
14 72 5 7
1.5
12
134.2 2.2
114.7
4
01/05 06/10 11/1516/20 21/25 26/30 31/35 36/40 41/45 46/50 51/5556/60 61/6566/70 71/7576/80 81/8586/90 91/95 96/002001 2004 (*)
(*) 4-year average
CAS - PARIS
28 octobre 2006 9
Prospective de la production ptrolire mondiale (first draft : final draft objective end 2006)Production par pays ou Zones gographiques (hydrocarbures liquides naturels Pays de lOCDE 2005 USA Canada Mer du Nord Autres Sous total Pays de lOPEC 2005 Arabie Iran Irak Koweit Venezuela Algrie + Libye Nigria Emirats + Qatar Autres Sous total Pays non OCDE non OPEC
20058 3 6 1 18 9 3.5 2.5 2 2 2 2 3 1 27
20206 4 4 1 15 12 5 5 3 4 3 3 4 1 40
20503 5 1 1 10 7 3 4 2 5 1 1 1 1 25
21001 3 0.5 0.5 5 4 2 2 1 4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 15
Russie et autres : Kazakstan, Azerbadjan, 36 Angola, Mexique, Argentine, Colombie, Brsil, Congo, etc Schistes bitumineuxCAS - PARIS
43
30
20
Total Monde GTep / mb/d 4 / 81
5 / 98
4
1010
28 3.5 /octobre 2006 / 50 69 2.6
Gas-hydrocarbon discoveries and production worldwideGboe/uear (5-year average)
70Deep sea (>500m)
65
60 50 40 30
Kashagan / Shah Deniz Classic exploration Liquid HC production
52
Sources: - Discoveries: IHS (excl. onsh US/Canada and GoM Shelf ) (May 2005) - Production: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2004)
26
23 159 11
2313
20 103 6 1 2 11 6
18 147 8
1614 153.9 1.4
2.2
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
01/05 06/10 11/1516/20 21/2526/30 31/3536/40 41/45 46/50 51/5556/60 61/6566/70 71/75 76/80 81/8586/90 91/9596/002001 2004 (*)
(*) 4-year average
CAS - PARIS
28 octobre 2006 11
2000 2006 : a historical warning by ASPO
Are we here ?A few peak oil websites3w.peakoil.net 3w.aspofrance.org 3w.oilcrisis.com 3w.peakoil.com
ASPO France members (June 2006):Jean Laherrre (formerly Total) Pierre-Ren Bauquis (fy Total) Carlos Cramez (fy Total) Jean-Luc Wingert Xavier Chavannes (Paris VII) Jean-Marc Jancovici (fy Envt) Alain Perrodon (fy Elf) Paul Alba (fy Elf) Maurice Allgre (fy IFP) Jacques Varet (BRGM) Adolphe Nicolas (Montpellier Uni) Jean-Marie Bourdaire (ex Total) Bernard Rogeaux (EDF)
CAS - PARIS
28 octobre 2006 12
A reminder of previous PRB views about "peak oil"1972IFP report to United Nations by Brasseur-Masseron Bauquis about ultimate reserves. Publication in French in the "Revue de l'Energie" 50th birthday of the paper "What energies for medium terme (2020) and long term (2050)" in which peak oil is estimated to take place around 2020 for a world production of around 100 Mb/d (all natural liquid H.C.). Publication in English of a slightly expanded version in "la revue de l'IFP" plus versions in Spanish, German, Russian and Arabic. Publication by IFP School in "Les cahiers de l'Economie" of the paper "Quelles nergies pour les transports au XXIe sicle (in French and in English).
1999
2001
2004
In 2006 the author still maintains and clarifies his 1999 views as follows : date range 2020 (+ 5 years) world production level 100 Mbd (+ 5 Mbd) World oil price "stabilized" in $ 2000 at 100 $/bbl (+ 20 $)CAS - PARIS
28 octobre 2006 13
A new methodological approach of peak oil by Paul Alba and Olivier Rech (1) Utilisation de la dynamique des phases et de la reprsentation f/c rf. note Paul Alba Olivier Rech du 13.10.2004 (30 pages). Reprsentations inities en 1994 par Paul Alba (ex Directeur des Etudes Economiques du Groupe ELF de 1985 1991). Poursuivies en 1999 par Olivier Rech dans son DEA. (actuellement Ingnieur Economiste lIFP).
Ce sont des mthodologies danalyse mathmatique de la forme des chroniques. (notions de trajectoires possibles, de pentes dynamiques, de paliers, de comportements asymptotiques et de convergence).CAS - PARIS
28 octobre 2006 14
A new methodological approach of peak oil by Paul Alba and Olivier Rech (2) Ces mthodologies sont applicables au problme du peak oil rf. 1 : Article de P. Alba et O. Rech dans la Revue de lEnergie, n 561 de novembre 2004. rf. 2 : Prsentation dO. Rech lASPO (Berlin 2004). Formulation mathmatique de la production (yn) mondiale de lanne n (tn) supposant connues les RUR (Rserves Ultimes Rcuprables) et la production dune anne de rfrence (yo) au temps 0 (to) log yn = log yo + log yo + C (tn-to) e -128 octobre 2006 15
CAS - PARIS
From global accumulated production to URR estimates for conventional liquidsUltimate Recoverable Reserves
0.50Growth rate
0.101945
1973
lope ve s i osit 3 : p ble rate 5-7 194 staina u Uns
Pessimistic scenario (2500 Gb or 342 GT) USGS (2000) (3345 Gb or 458 GT)
Optimistic scenario (4000 Gb or 548 GT)
1988 2004
0.09
0.450.01CAS - PARIS IFP - Economic Studies Division
10
50
100
342
458
548
1000
1900
1923 194510
0.1
Accumulated production in billions of tonnes (log)
0.081
1973 28 octobre 2006100 1000
16
From extrapolating the world accumulated production to the annual production curve
Ultimate Recoverable Reserves scenarios
5000
Pessimistic scenario (2500 Gb or 342 GT) USGS (2000) (3345 Gb or 458 GT) Optimistic scenario (4000 Gb or 548 GT)
Million tonnes
4500CAS - PARIS IFP - Economic Studies Division
28 octobre 2006 17
CAS - PARIS
28 octobre 2006 18
PARTIE 2
PRINCIPALES CONSEQUENCES DU PIC PETROLIER la question du prix des nergies la question des transports
CAS - PARIS
28 octobre 2006 19
OIL Prices 2005 2050 (Arabian Light in US $ 2000/bbl)A dream view presented in Cambridge by P.R. B on 15/03/06
US$/bbl250 200 150 100 50 0 2005 2011 2017 2023 2029 2035 2041 2047 2053 Oil Prices
CAS - PARIS
28 octobre 2006 20
CAS - PARIS
28 octobre 2006 21
CAS - PARIS
28 octobre 2006 22
CAS - PARIS
28 octobre 2006 23
Annule et remplace
Conclusions about "peak oil" - 1Since June 2006 it can be considered that views about Peak Oil in France have become reasonably similar : TOTAL : Thierry Desmarest around 2020 / around 100 Mb/d ASPO France : J. Laherrre around 2015 / less than 100 Mb/d IFP : Y. Mathieu ondulated plateau 20150/2030 less than 100 Mb/d
This point of view is widely different from those among the "optimists" who believe that Peak Oil is not "reserves related" but a political problem : insufficient investments and restrictive policies about investments by OPEC countries, Russia and Mexico : CAS - PARIS
Exxon-Mobil ongoing at ad. Campaign "no signs of peak oil" Aramco July 2006 "no reserves problems" BP : John Browne May 2006 - "There is no reserves problem" Mike Lynch (ex MIT) "similar and above 120 Mb/d" USGS, DOE, EIA, IEA 28 octobre 200624
Conclusions about "peak oil" - 2 The work conducted by Paul Alba and Olivier Rech leads to the important conclusion that their optimistic view about peak oil is practically identical to PR. Bauquis view, i.e. : Peak around 2020 Peak around 80 Mb/d for conventional oil and around 100 mb/d for all natural liquid H.C. (oil).
Il est essentiel que l'IFP, TOTAL, les Universits ou les autres organismes de recherches consacrent plus d'efforts l'tude des pics du ptrole et du gaz. Ces efforts devront porter tant sur des mthodologies "top down" que sur des analyses "bottom up".
CAS - PARIS
28 octobre 2006 25
conclusions - 3La survenue du pic de production du ptrole (entre 2015 et 2025 trs probablement) puis du gaz (entre 2020 et 2030) vont modifier fondamentalement notre industrie. Aprs le pic du ptrole, les prix du ptrole et du gaz changent de logique : ils deviennent lis ceux de leurs substituts. Ds que le dclin s'amorce l'OPEP perd son rle de rgulateur des prix, mais peut garder d'autres fonctions .
CAS - PARIS
28 octobre 2006 26
conclusions - 4Le dclin du ptrole et du gaz durera tout au long du XXI me sicle et au-del. Ce sera paradoxalement l'"ge d'or" du ptrole et du gaz (prix levs et relativement prvisibles). Ce sera l'ge d'or pour les ptroliers mais aussi pour leurs fournisseurs et pour les entrepreneurs du secteur paraptrolier. Ce sera aussi l'ge d'or des "mariages" entre nergies fossiles, nergies renouvelables, et nuclaires.
CAS - PARIS
28 octobre 2006 27