PICK OF THE MONTH VOL-6, NO-05 Industry: Specialty...

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OVERVIEW: Industry Phosgene: also called carbonyl chloride, is a colourless chemical compound produced by reacting chlorine and carbon monoxide. Phosgene has become an irreplaceable constitution in the industry as it exhibits distinguish application as building block in the preparation of many chemicals and drugs. Phosgene is basically a toxic chemical and was used as chemical weapon during World War I (in its gaseous state). For ensuring safety, phosgene is by and large produced and used for captive consumption in the same facility. All production sites producing more than 30 tons per year must be notified to the OVCW (Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons). Toxicity and fear of any fallout limits the application of this product. Moreover, there is a fear associated with the misuse of phosgene, therefore, the manufacturers not only have to ensure its safe usage in production but also confirm the end-use as per the terms in the chemical weapons convention. Industrially, phosgene is produced by passing purified carbon monoxide and chlorine gas through a bed of special porous activated carbon that acts as a catalyst: CO + Cl 2 → COCl 2 (ΔH rxn = -107.6 kJ / mol) Despite being a highly toxic chemical, Phosgene and allied products have a number of applications in many industries. Phosgene is used to manufacture diethylcarbomoyl chloride which in turn is utilised to hydrolyse water insoluble compounds and is extensively used in the Pharma industry. Phosgene is an important building block and reagent in organic synthesis, manufacture of dyes, pharmaceuticals, herbicides, insecticides, synthetic foams, resins, polymers etc. The main derivatives of phosgene include isocyanates, carbamates, chloroformates and acid chlorides which further find applications in pharmaceuticals, polymers, agrochemicals, production of polycarbonates and other specialty chemicals. Derivatives of isocyanates are Methylenediphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) and Toluene diisocyanate (TDI), used in the production of foams which find indirect applications in industries such as automobile, furniture etc. Carbamates find application in agrochemicals while chloroformates are used as reagents in organic chemistry. The world production of phosgene is expected to reach USD9.7bn by 2050. The global phosgene market is expected to reach USD1.24bn by 2025, at the CAGR of 4.6%, as per a report by Market Research Future. This growth will be attributable to increased demand for bedding & furniture, increase in the use of insecticides dominated by agricultural driven economies in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) including India, China, and Vietnam, followed by North America. Some of the other factors which can lead to growth in this market include easy availability of raw material in APAC region, low cost labour, increased use of phosgene in medicines and changing consumer behaviour across industries. The phosgene industry has been showing continuous growth in the past which is expected to continue in the near future. Western Europe has been the leading consumer of this compound followed by North America and China. India, China and Middle East are expected to grow at a better pace due to the increasing demand for phosgene derivatives (mainly MDI and TDI) which have application in the manufacture of polyurethane primarily for flexible foam applications. Some of the key global vendors for MDI and TDI include BASF, Covestro, Huntsman International, Shandong Tianan Chemicals, Van Demark Chemicals, Wanhua Chemical Group. The top four phosgene producing companies include Covestro, BASF, Yantai Wanhua, and Dow-DuPont. As far India is concerned, Atul Ltd and Paushak Ltd are two big players in the phosgene market, located in the state of Gujarat. Both the companies have several years of experience in safe Phosgene handling and are also key vendors for the end users in the Indian chemical market. Many analysts are anticipating the demand for specialty isocyanates such as hexamethylene diisocyanate (HDI), used in anticorrosive surface coatings for automobiles, aircraft and trains to increase as well. This growth will be specifically seen in many Asian countries. CMP: Rs.2210 TARGET PRICE: Rs.3200 TIME : 12 months SNAPSHOT 52 week H / L Mcap (INR mn) 3100 / 1926 6811 Face value: 10 BSE Code NSE CODE 532742 NA Annual Performance (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E Total Revenue 723 1,047 1,395 1,493 EBITDA 123 293 402 506 EBITDA (%) 17.0 28.0 28.8 33.9 Other Income 51 30 26 52 Interest 1 1 1 0 Depreciation 32 34 39 45 PBT 141 289 388 513 PAT 109 215 390* 385 Equity ( Rs mn) 32 32 31 31 EPS (INR) 34 67 126* 125 Ratio Analysis Parameters (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E EV/EBITDA (x) 55.4 23.2 16.9 13.4 EV/Net Sales (x) 9.4 6.5 4.9 4.6 M Cap/Sales (x) 9.4 6.5 4.9 4.6 M Cap/EBITDA (x) 55.4 23.2 16.9 13.5 Debt/Equity (x) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 ROCE (%) 17.9 27.7 24.3 23.5 Price/Book Value (x) 8.5 6.3 3.8 3.2 P/E (x) TTM 10.2 12.1 14.8 17.8 Shareholding Pattern as on 31st December, 2019 Parameters No of Shares % Promoters 2,056,079 66.71 Institutions 196 0.01 Public 1,025,839 33.28 TOTAL 3,082,114 100.00 Quarterly Performance Parameters (Rs mn) Mar-19 June-19 Sept-19 Dec-19 Sales (Net) 386 359 345 383 EBITDA 131 112 99 138 EBITDA (%) 34 31 29 36 Other Income 6 8 8 16 Interest 0 0 0 0 Depreciation 10 11 11 11 PAT 97 100 75 110 Equity ( Rs mn) 31 31 31 31 Page No 1 Paushak Limited March 11, 2020 PICK OF THE MONTH VOL-6, NO-05 Please Turn Over BUY Source: Annual Report Note: All the data is calculated as per Market Price on 9th March, 2020 * exceptional income of Rs101.5mn Industry: Specialty Chemicals

Transcript of PICK OF THE MONTH VOL-6, NO-05 Industry: Specialty...

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OVERVIEW: Industry

Phosgene: also called carbonyl chloride, is a colourless chemical

compound produced by reacting chlorine and carbon monoxide. Phosgene

has become an irreplaceable constitution in the industry as it exhibits

distinguish application as building block in the preparation of many

chemicals and drugs. Phosgene is basically a toxic chemical and was used

as chemical weapon during World War I (in its gaseous state). For ensuring

safety, phosgene is by and large produced and used for captive

consumption in the same facility. All production sites producing more than

30 tons per year must be notified to the OVCW (Organisation for the

Prohibition of Chemical Weapons). Toxicity and fear of any fallout limits

the application of this product. Moreover, there is a fear associated with the

misuse of phosgene, therefore, the manufacturers not only have to ensure

its safe usage in production but also confirm the end-use as per the terms in

the chemical weapons convention. Industrially, phosgene is produced by

passing purified carbon monoxide and chlorine gas through a bed of special

porous activated carbon that acts as a catalyst:

CO + Cl2→ COCl2 (ΔH rxn = -107.6 kJ / mol)

Despite being a highly toxic chemical, Phosgene and allied products have a

number of applications in many industries. Phosgene is used to

manufacture diethylcarbomoyl chloride which in turn is utilised to

hydrolyse water insoluble compounds and is extensively used in the

Pharma industry. Phosgene is an important building block and reagent in

organic synthesis, manufacture of dyes, pharmaceuticals, herbicides,

insecticides, synthetic foams, resins, polymers etc. The main derivatives of

phosgene include isocyanates, carbamates, chloroformates and acid

chlorides which further find applications in pharmaceuticals, polymers,

agrochemicals, production of polycarbonates and other specialty chemicals.

Derivatives of isocyanates are Methylenediphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) and

Toluene diisocyanate (TDI), used in the production of foams which find

indirect applications in industries such as automobile, furniture etc.

Carbamates find application in agrochemicals while chloroformates are

used as reagents in organic chemistry.

The world production of phosgene is expected to reach USD9.7bn by 2050.

The global phosgene market is expected to reach USD1.24bn by 2025, at

the CAGR of 4.6%, as per a report by Market Research Future. This

growth will be attributable to increased demand for bedding & furniture,

increase in the use of insecticides dominated by agricultural driven

economies in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) including India, China, and

Vietnam, followed by North America. Some of the other factors which can

lead to growth in this market include easy availability of raw material in

APAC region, low cost labour, increased use of phosgene in medicines and

changing consumer behaviour across industries. The phosgene industry has

been showing continuous growth in the past which is expected to continue

in the near future. Western Europe has been the leading consumer of this

compound followed by North America and China. India, China and Middle

East are expected to grow at a better pace due to the increasing demand for

phosgene derivatives (mainly MDI and TDI) which have application in the

manufacture of polyurethane primarily for flexible foam applications.

Some of the key global vendors for MDI and TDI include BASF, Covestro,

Huntsman International, Shandong Tianan Chemicals, Van Demark

Chemicals, Wanhua Chemical Group. The top four phosgene producing

companies include Covestro, BASF, Yantai Wanhua, and Dow-DuPont. As

far India is concerned, Atul Ltd and Paushak Ltd are two big players in the

phosgene market, located in the state of Gujarat. Both the companies have

several years of experience in safe Phosgene handling and are also key

vendors for the end users in the Indian chemical market. Many analysts are

anticipating the demand for specialty isocyanates such as hexamethylene

diisocyanate (HDI), used in anticorrosive surface coatings for automobiles,

aircraft and trains to increase as well. This growth will be specifically seen

in many Asian countries.

CMP: Rs.2210 TARGET PRICE: Rs.3200 TIME : 12 months

SNAPSHOT

52 week H / L Mcap (INR mn)

3100 / 1926 6811

Face value: 10

BSE Code NSE CODE

532742 NA

Annual Performance

(Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E

Total Revenue 723 1,047 1,395 1,493

EBITDA 123 293 402 506

EBITDA (%) 17.0 28.0 28.8 33.9

Other Income 51 30 26 52

Interest 1 1 1 0

Depreciation 32 34 39 45

PBT 141 289 388 513

PAT 109 215 390* 385

Equity ( Rs mn) 32 32 31 31

EPS (INR) 34 67 126* 125

Ratio Analysis

Parameters (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E

EV/EBITDA (x) 55.4 23.2 16.9 13.4

EV/Net Sales (x) 9.4 6.5 4.9 4.6

M Cap/Sales (x) 9.4 6.5 4.9 4.6

M Cap/EBITDA (x) 55.4 23.2 16.9 13.5

Debt/Equity (x) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1

ROCE (%) 17.9 27.7 24.3 23.5

Price/Book Value (x) 8.5 6.3 3.8 3.2

P/E (x) TTM 10.2 12.1 14.8 17.8

Shareholding Pattern as on 31st December, 2019

Parameters No of Shares %

Promoters 2,056,079 66.71

Institutions 196 0.01

Public 1,025,839 33.28

TOTAL 3,082,114 100.00

Quarterly Performance

Parameters (Rs mn) Mar-19 June-19 Sept-19 Dec-19

Sales (Net) 386 359 345 383

EBITDA 131 112 99 138

EBITDA (%) 34 31 29 36

Other Income 6 8 8 16

Interest 0 0 0 0

Depreciation 10 11 11 11

PAT 97 100 75 110

Equity ( Rs mn) 31 31 31 31

Page No 1

Paushak Limited

March 11, 2020 PICK OF THE MONTH VOL-6, NO-05

Please Turn Over

BUY

Source: Annual Report

Note: All the data is calculated as per Market Price on 9th March, 2020

* exceptional income of Rs101.5mn

Industry: Specialty Chemicals

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CMP: Rs.2210 TARGET PRICE: Rs.3200 TIME : 12 months

Paushak Limited

March 11, 2020 PICK OF THE MONTH VOL-6, NO-05

BUY

OVERVIEW: Industry (contd.)

About End User Industries:

Pharma: Lifestyle diseases such as diabetes, hypertension and thyroid are

on the rise in China and India due to the fact that the population in these

regions tends to adopt an inactive lifestyle. ICRA has projected the Indian

Pharma industry to grow at 10-12% between FY2019-22. Carbonates,

chloroformates, isocyanates and organic urea are some of the key classes

of phosgene products which are used in Pharma industry.

Agrochem: Low yield per hectare, lack of awareness of use of

agrochemicals, increasing number of insect attacks etc. are some of the

growth drivers of this sector. Indian agrochemical sector is expected to

grow at CAGR of 8% during 2020-2027, according to Maximize Market

Research Pvt Ltd. Phosgene and many of its allied chemistries are used in

a number of crop protection and agrochemicals intermediates.

Speciality and Performance Chemicals: According to Businesswire,

specialty sector is anticipated to grow at ~11.9% CAGR from Rs2,356bn

in FY18 to Rs4,527bn by FY24. The closure of plants in China and

Europe due to environmental concerns is a key driver of growth while

global players are diversifying supply risks. The recent Covid-19 has

presented an opportunity for the Indian specialty chemical players.

Polycarbonate: a type of polymer which is synthesized from bisphenol-A

and phosgene is used in different downstream industries such as

automobile, electronic and electrical and construction. Polycarbonate

industry is anticipated to grow at 5.39% between FY2019-22, as per

Modor Intelligence report.

About the Company:

Paushak Limited (Paushak) is one of the few companies in India (as well

as globally) which is engaged in the development and manufacturing of

phosgene based speciality chemicals which require stringent standards

and regulations to be followed. Founded in 1972, a part of Alembic

Group, Paushak has an experience of more than three decades in

phosgene chemistry. Phosgene related products and intermediates have a

number of applications in the segment of pharmaceutical, agrochemical

and performance chemicals. The company has a strong skill sets in

various chemistries like acetylation, methylation, nitration, sulphonation,

isomerisation, hydrogenation, decarboxylation, diazotization,

halogenation, high temperature reactions, CO reactions etc. The company

also undertakes toll/contract manufacturing for phosgenation to produce

carbamoyl chloride, isocyanate, chloroformates and urea. Paushak is a

manufacturer and exporters of isocyanates, chloroformates, carbamoyl

chlorides, chloromethyl isopropyl carbonate.

The company has an in-house process development and R&D laboratory aided with corporate support in production, R&D,

qualitative analysis, etc. The company has proven capability in process development to commercialisation with strong commitment

for quality and on time delivery. The manufacturing facility is located at Halol, Gujarat. The company is promoted by Mr. Chirayu

Amin who is also the promoter of Alembic group.

Page No 2 Please Turn Over

Exhibit 01: Major Isocyanate Derivatives

Exhibit 02: Phosgene Chemistry

Source: www.paushak.com/pdf/corporate.pdf , Progressive Research

Source: https://myosh.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/guide-to-handling-isocyanates.pdf, Progressive Research

Industry: Specialty Chemicals

Name Applications

Toluene diisocyanate (TDI) Flexible polyurethane foam production

Methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) Rigid polyurethane foam production

Hexamethylene diisocyanate (HDI) Spray paints, lacquers and car re-finishing

Napthalene diisocyanate (NDI) Elastomers and synthetic rubbers

Methyl isocyanate (MIC) Intermediate in the production of some pesticides

Isophorone diisocyanate (IPDI) Manufacture of coating and adhesive polymers

and polyurethane foams

Exhibit 03: Industry Catered

Source: http://www.paushak.com/pdf/corporate.pdf

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CMP: Rs.2210 TARGET PRICE: Rs.3200 TIME : 12 months

Paushak Limited

March 11, 2020 PICK OF THE MONTH VOL-6, NO-05

BUY

INVESTMENT RATIONALE: (A) Paushak- In a Sweet Spot:

China and its chemical market has been constantly going through a rough

patch due to its own set of issues and stricter environmental norms,

because of which companies like Paushak have been in a sweet spot and

benefited from the shortages as well as the controlled supplies of

intermediaries and chemicals from China. Even before the Chinese market

could revive from the blow of environmental compliances, they are struck

with the issues related to Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), which is

trying to disrupt the entire supply chain management. Needless to

mention, supplies from China will improve as time passes by, but the

same will not happen atleast in the immediate future. Paushak has a large

number of domestic clients which contribute to a major chunk of its

revenues. In the current situation, operations of some Chinese players

came to a standstill which led to the increase in demand to some extent.

There could be some tweaking of Chinese trade policies which may be

beneficial for Paushak. Paushak is not dependent on China for imports of

basic raw materials, so the Chinese slowdown will not impact the supply

side and hence Paushak appears to be well shielded from this issue. The

same reason also augurs well, for the company to emerge as the sole

supplier for certain Agrochem and Pharma intermediates in the immediate

near term. Also the pressure on crude prices will also be beneficial for Paushak. In addition to all these factors favouring the

company, the Management has already planned a capex of nearly Rs1200mn to be completed over the next three fiscals, largely

funded via internal accruals. The company is aiming at achieving higher standards of performance while generating greater value for

all of their stakeholders. Phosgene continues to be area of focus where the Management is seeing opportunities over the next

2-3 years. Many new players are trying to venture into the phosgene and associated products; while many players have already

applied for phosgene licensing. But the fact of the matter is that to get the project approved is indeed a very difficult task.

(B) Product Portfolio: On a broader scale, the product list of the company includes Isocyanates, Chloroformates, Carbonates, Carbamates and Chlorides.

The company has been focusing on intermediate products to be added to its basket of offerings. Paushak is the domestic market

leader in most of its product portfolio. The company has continued to commercialise some products which were earlier purchased

from China. It has also launched some new products for the first time in India, which were earlier imported. Thus, while adding new

products and also maintaining the market share of legacy products, Paushak continues on it growth journey.

(i) Isocyanates: are synthetized by treating amines with phosgene. Isocyanates derivatives are used in the manufacturing of rigid

foams, adhesives, elastomers and coatings and thus indirectly used in industries such as automotive, construction, pesticides,

Pharma, electronics etc. According to Mordor Intelligence’s report; the global isocyanates market is expected to grow at 6% CAGR

from 2019 to 2025. Paushak is actively improving its share in the Isocyanates industry via a projected 5 fold capex plan.

(ii) Chloroformates: are used as reagents and building blocks for many downstream applications for production of pharmaceuticals,

agrochemical, dyes, resins and perfumes. One of the derivatives known as Benzyl Chloroformate which finds its application as a

blocking agent in synthesis of polypeptide compounds is manufactured by Paushak. Another derivative of phosgene, Propyl

Chloroformates finds application as an intermediate for production of pharmaceuticals and agrochemicals. Propyl Chloroformates is

expected to grow at 3.76% CAGR during 2019-2024 (as per Mindaspire Market research).

(iii) Carbonates and Carbamates: Paushak is also involved in producing carbonates that are majorly used in pharmaceutical industry

with increasing focus on medication for HIV/Aids, Hepatitis B, high blood pressure etc. A major part of Paushak’s revenues actually

comes from the pharmaceutical sector in which carbonates is involved. Carbonates are also used in manufacturing of detergents,

ceramics, adhesives, sealants, paints etc. As far as Carbamates are concerned, it is used for synthesis of urea, production of

polyurethane plastics, intermediate for insecticides and preservation of cosmetics etc.

(iv) Chlorides: Chlorides and allied products produced by the company are used as intermediate for synthetic chemistries involving

pharmaceutical and agrochemicals. As per Research and Markets, India’s acid chloride market is anticipated to grow at

approximately 8% CAGR during the forecasted period of 2020-2024. This expected growth is attributable to the increase in export

of chemicals, growth in production of dyes and its intermediates and growing demand for polymers.

(v) Other Products: The company is making conscious efforts to expand its offerings. Apart from the conventional businesses related

to phosgene, the Management wants to create a portfolio which involves non-phosgene chemistries. Some of these include:

Urea: is one of the highest consumed fertilizers produced at low cost in the country as it is a source of Nitrogen, which supports

vegetative growth. GOI is aiming to reduce urea import and have approved revival of 5 plants which were earlier closed. Paushak

has also applied to increase capacities from current 10MT/month to 300MT/month. Global data is of the view that India will lead

urea capacity additions and production by 2030.

Esters: are used as organic solvents, used to make surfactants such as soap, detergents, constituent of perfumes, essential oils, food

flavourings, cosmetics, etc. Esters also have many pharmaceutical and agricultural applications. Looking at the opportunities in

these allied products, Paushak has also applied for new capacities of ester and has proposed to ramp up operations upto

209MT/month.

Page No 3 Please Turn Over

Exhibit 04: Growth Triggers

Source: Progressive Research

Industry: Specialty Chemicals

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CMP: Rs.2210 TARGET PRICE: Rs.3200 TIME : 12 months

Paushak Limited

March 11, 2020 PICK OF THE MONTH VOL-6, NO-05

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INVESTMENT RATIONALE (contd.)

(C) Capex: Due to the immense demand in the market for

the products which Paushak caters to along with the facilities

which are currently running at almost full capacities, the

company has been constantly working towards adding more

capacities. Paushak aims at improving growth via technology,

increasing its capacities and has already chalked out an

aggressive expansion plan that can result in almost 2.5x-3x of

the current capacity. Some of the factors like shortage of

intermediate products in the Chinese market due to stringent

environmental laws and the entire ‘Make in India’ push by

GOI have benefitted the company and thus steps for capacity

expansion were taken up. Paushak proposes to triple the

phosgene capacity while adding new downstream products as

well. It is also anticipated that the company will be able to

show dual benefits wherein they will be able to cater as a

player capable of being an import substitute as well as global

cost competitive supplier. The company has planned a capex

to the tune of Rs1200mn which is spread over a period of

3-4 years. This is largely funded via internal accruals. As per

market research and reports, some part of the capex was

earlier expected to be commenced in FY2019; but was

delayed as the Management wanted to bring in more

optimisation and thus redesigned/ modified the plan.

(D) Future Secured: (i) Entry Barriers: The products that Paushak manufactures are

very niche and have strong entry barriers related to stringent

norms for setting up a phosgene facility. Since, phosgene is a

hazardous chemical, getting environmental clearance for the

same is a lengthy procedure. Moreover, the protocol of

various local as well as global laws, environmental laws and

other compliances’ related to the chemical industries make the

approval for capex a cumbersome process. If a company has a

licence to produce phosgene; then there is a compulsion to

consume it in the same facility. There are very few companies

in the world which have the technical expertise to manufacture

these chemicals like BASF, BayerCrop Science, Dow

Chemical, PPG Industries, DuPont, Rubican etc.

(ii) Technology:

While phosgene and its allied products continue to be the area of focus for Paushak, the company is also working on different

chemistries inviting the need for better technologies. The company has already started exploring the idea of using better mix of

technologies in order to improve process efficiencies and also reduce specific energy consumptions. In addition to the process of

exploring newer technologies, the company is also debottlenecking available pockets to boost competences. Paushak has currently

reported of upgrading old manufacturing plants (especially the utilities network) to achieve overall improved energy usage and thus

efficiencies. Paushak is a zero discharge facility, in addition to this; the company has a vision to adopt cleaner technology for its

manufacturing process. For e.g. the company produces steam using bio-waste on its site and thus reduce carbon foot print. The

company has also adopted continuous process in some reactions that utilise less energy compared to batch process. The company is

environmentally conscious; and is accredited with ISO9001:2008 as well as ISO14001 for international management standards as

well as OHSAS 18001 for occupational health and safety management systems.

With a view to save up energy; Paushak is exploring non-conventional sources of energy and is investing in the use of windmill for

captive consumption as also investing in energy efficient gas scrubbing system and air compressors. The company is also exploring

the use of solar energy in plant applications and expansion projects to reduce specific energy consumption. The company claims that

its team has established an improved indigenous technology for better phosgene manufacturing which is in line with global

standards and practises. In order to improve the efficiencies and imbibe systematic approach, Paushak has adopted the

philosophy of total quality management (TQM). The company has also adopted solvent free processes for many products which are

environment friendly as well as low cost. With all these efforts made by the company towards improvement and introduction of

newer technologies, the focus appears to be more towards growth and the vision is to emerge as a technology driven global

speciality chemical company. Since Paushak deals with hazardous substances, the company conducts HAZOP (hazard and

operability study) on regular basis through external agencies to ensure safe process and plant operations. The major take away from

this is that the company is working towards improvement in product mix. Along with increase in the anticipated turnover in the mid

to long term, sustainable and healthy operating profitability is also something the company is aiming at.

Page No 4 Please Turn Over

Exhibit 05: Expected Expansion (MT/month)

Industry: Specialty Chemicals

Source: www.environmentclearance.nic.in/writereaddata/Online

EDS/18_Jun_2018_150550510UQJ1B8Y0Annexure-AdditionalDocuments.pdf, Progressive

Research

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CMP: Rs.2210 TARGET PRICE: Rs.3200 TIME : 12 months

Paushak Limited

March 11, 2020 PICK OF THE MONTH VOL-6, NO-05

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INVESTMENT RATIONALE (contd.)

(iii) CRAMS And Custom Synthesis:

Paushak is upgrading its plant for contract manufacturing and has started with small products which are currently not a substantial

portion of its revenues. The company is also capable to offer end-to-end solutions from process development to contract

manufacturing and has been working towards adding MNC clients to its portfolio. It also plays a critical role in custom synthesis,

wherein Paushak partners with customers on a global scale and cultivate opportunities to research, manufacture and develop

compounds across the entire product life cycle. In addition to this, the company also works as a preferred partner for development of

molecules for future rollout with the help of its R&D team.

Financials:

Paushak has a strong balance sheet with strong operating efficiencies and healthy financial risk profile. From the balance sheet it is

quite evident that the company is in a capex mode which is largely sponsored through internal accruals. This growth capex as well

as maintenance capex is assumed to continue in parts over the next 2-3 years. While there is new capacity being added, the

company is also looking at de-bottlenecking and increasing the current operational efficiencies.

The company is currently on a spree to add new employee’s across different domains like R&D, Production, Process Engineers,

Technical Services and Technicians which is also an indicative of growth and value addition to cater to the increasing demand. The

HRD team of the company has been trying to add more competent resources to build capabilities as also improving the overall work

culture to accelerate growth. The strength of employees on pay roll has been progressively increasing over the years from nearly 176

in March 2016 to nearly 265 in March 2019. Moreover, it is also presumed there are few additions at the key managerial level as

well.

The company continues to be a virtually debt free entity and a net foreign exchange earner. Paushak has been constantly rewarding

its shareholders with more or less consistent dividend (and a buyback in FY2018). One must bear in mind that it had reported an

exceptional income to the tune of Rs101.50mn in FY19, which were the proceeds from the sale of investment property.

Paushak is virtually backward integrated which helps deliver strong operating efficiency in the range of 29-32% while the ROCE

has been in 18-20% for quite some time now. The working capital cycle is more or less moderate with receivables of approximately

86 days and inventory of 66 days (March 31, 2019). Paushak has no debt and enjoys higher operating margins when compared to

Atul Ltd which operates in the similar segment at lower operating margins ranging 17-19%. Paushak has reported a 4 year CAGR of

revenue at 23.93% and profit CAGR at 31.6% which has mostly come by the launch of new products in the market. As per Crisil

report, some part of the production capacities is likely to be commercialised by September- December 2020, while ramp up in scale

is expected from FY2022 onwards.

Page No 5 Please Turn Over

Industry: Specialty Chemicals

Exhibit 06: CRAMS Exhibit 07: Custom Synthesis

Source: www.paushak.com/pdf/corporate.pdf,

Progressive Research

Source: www.paushak.com/pdf/corporate.pdf,

Progressive Research

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CMP: Rs.2210 TARGET PRICE: Rs.3200 TIME : 12 months

Paushak Limited

March 11, 2020 PICK OF THE MONTH VOL-6, NO-05

BUY

Financials (contd.):

Risks and Concerns:

The company is listed on BSE only. There are a total of 30.8 lac shares in the market, where the promoters of the company are

holding nearly 66% of the same. This makes the stock highly illiquid and thus the stock is very thinly traded on the stock

exchange. Moreover, this also invites and large spreads between the ask price and the bid price. The company is a capex mode

where timely execution of the same and successful ramp-up is a key factor to monitor.

The company faces certain commodity risks for some finished products which cannot be easily mitigated. Paushak is a net foreign

exchange earner and like most of the companies faces risk associated to foreign currency fluctuations.

Revival of the Chinese market is a matter of concern to some extent as many phosgenated intermediates are procured from the

Chinese players by many Indian companies and pricing of the same to a large extent is controlled by Chinese players. In the

current scenario, the opportunities for the Chinese players look bleak and the focus can shift to Indian players; however, one

cannot completely eliminate or mitigate the concerns. Rising cost of crude can be a dampener for the input costs, which currently

is in favour of the Indian Market.

Paushak caters to clients in the Pharma as well Agrochem sector which invites pricing pressure for some drugs from USA while at

the same time monsoons play a critical role for the Indian agrarian community.

The company deals with hazardous material; any leakage or mishandling can lead to a dip in the future prospects. The market is

monitored by strict regulatory laws enforced for the containment of hazards of Phosgene gas. In addition to this, there is added

cost required for its handling of the materials with care and thus, these limitations or plus points to some extents can hold the

growth of the Phosgene Market.

Outlook and Recommendations:

Phosgene chemistry and allied product offerings continue to exist as the core area of operations for Paushak; however, the company

has also identified newer chemistries to be offered to its clients while generating higher value added products. The company is

planning to aggressively expand its infrastructure, capabilities as well as capacities to further accelerate growth of its business. It

also appears to be focussing on de-risking its products portfolio, improving the ability to handle complex reactions, adding new

customers and the markets they cater to. China has been working on reduction of pollution and cutting down on production of

hazardous chemicals. The issues which China has been twiddling with can be positive for Paushak; however, one should be

cautiously bullish on this aspect till China comes back on track. Moreover, the rupee has depreciated off late which favours exports

from India. Paushak will continue to benefit from its established market position, diverse product profile and strong operating

efficiency. Cumulatively, these developments prove to be a blessing in disguise for Paushak to capitalise on. With the Management's

focus on enhancing capacities and capitalising on improved demand, growth is expected to gather momentum over the medium term

to long term. Currently, Paushak is a very small company and one can expect liquidity in shares only when the company grows in

size. As of now, we recommend to SIP in the company for a target price of Rs3200 with a horizon of 12 months.

Page No 6

Source: Annual Report, Progressive Research

Exhibit 08: Revenue v/s PAT Margin Exhibit 09: EBITDA v/s EBITDA Margin

Industry: Specialty Chemicals

Source: Annual Report, Progressive Research

Exhibit 10: One Year Forward P/E Exhibit 11: Price vs. Sensex

Source: ACE Equity Source: ACE Equity

Page 7: PICK OF THE MONTH VOL-6, NO-05 Industry: Specialty ...reports.progressiveshares.com/ResearchReports/FR... · a number of crop protection and agrochemicals intermediates. Speciality

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