PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN Where will all the pigs be raised? Global Economics Vs Food...
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Transcript of PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN Where will all the pigs be raised? Global Economics Vs Food...
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Where will all the pigs be raised?
Global Economics Vs Food Security and other PoliticsJerry Thompson
Genus Director
Russia and Asia Pacific
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Introduction
1. Global Economic Overview– The PIC World Pork Competitive Survey
2. Non-economic Factors– From Food Security to Customer Demand
3. Showcase on China
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
The Challenge
• Double food output by 2050 using 50% of the water that we use today
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
World Meat Production and Trade
• Meat Production grows at 1.8% per year• Meat Trade grows at 3.4% per year
Fapri 2010 World Agriculture Outlook
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Per Capita Meat Consumption
• Pork first choice among consumers• 2019: 55 Kgs of Pork, Chicken and Beef
Fapri 2010 World Agriculture Outlook
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
World Pork Production and Trade
• Production grows at 1.6% / Year• Trade grows at a rate of 2.8%
Fapri 2010 World Agriculture Outlook
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Who is Eating Pork?
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TNFapri 2010 World Agriculture Outlook
EU27
China
South Korea
United States
Canada
Australia
Russia
Chile
Japan
Mexico
Brazil
Philippines
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Per Capita Pork Consumption (Kgs/person)
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Selected Net Importer Countries
Fapri 2010 World Agriculture Outlook
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
The PIC World Pork Competitive Survey
• Objective:
– Quantitative study of key success factors that positively or negatively impact growth in pork production in selected countries
• 70 Industry leaders from 15 different countries
• Focus on: USA, Canada, EU-27, Chile, Mexico, China, Japan, Brazil, Argentina, Australia, South Korea, Phillipines.
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
STRUCTURAL FACTORSCorn Prices
Land AvailabilityLabor Efficiency
Farm ProductivityLocal Demand for PorkPork Quality Standards
COST COMPETITIVENESS
Level of Cost of Production% Feed Cost / Total Cost
Cost per Sow in New Project
POLITICAL & SOCIAL FACTORSPork is Country´s Strategic
Government SubsidiesLocal Food Safety RegulationLevel of Environmental Laws
Welfare PressureCountry´s Animal Disease Control
Industry Key Success Factors
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 8545
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
China
EU27
USA
Brazil
Philippines
Canada
Mexico
Chile
Australia
Argentina
Japan
Structural Factors
Politi
cal &
Soc
ial F
acto
rs
BetterWorst
PIC 2010 World Pork Competitive Survey
Better
Ability to Compete?
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
-1
0
1
2
3
4
China
EU27
USABrazil
Philippines
Canada
Mexico
Chile
Australia
Argentina
Japan
Structural Factors
Cost
of P
rodu
ction
PIC 2010 World Pork Competitive Survey
Worst
Better
Better
What about Cost?
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Non-Economic Factors
Food SecurityThe availability of food and our
access to it
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
China’s Twelfth Five Years Plan Date:16 March 2011
• 把握“一个重点任务”,按照科学发展的要求来加快现代农业的发展。在工业化和城镇化的过程当中,同步推进农业现代化。另外,要突出“一条主线”,就是要加快农业发展方式的转变,继续调整和优化产业结构。
• 紧紧围绕“两个目标”,就是把保证国家粮食安全、持续发展我们的粮食生产作为首要目标,把持续快速的增加农民收入作为农业农村经济工作的中心目标 .
• 提高“三个能力”,提高农业的综合生产能力、农业的抗风险能力和农业的市场竞争能力。
• 在“十二五”要下大力气推进“四化”,农业生产经
营的专业化、标准化、规模化和集约化。
• 强化“五大支撑”,强化农业发展的政策支撑、科技支撑、装备支撑、人才支撑、体制机制支撑
• Ⅰ• Speed up the development of modern agriculture.
• Ⅱ• Guarantee the safety and develop our production capacity.• Take increasing farmers income as the top priority in agriculture
economy development.
• Ⅲ• Improve overall agriculture production levels• Strengthen anti-risk capability• Enhance competitive edges
• Ⅳ• Promote agriculture business to be more specialization, more
standard, more systematization and more intensification.
• Ⅴ• Support agriculture development with preferential policies, advanced
technology and equipment, talented people and optimized mechanism.
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
The ‘Putin Plan’ for Russia• 2-й этап Программы
реализуется в 2013-2020 гг. Цель увеличить маточное поголовье до
2.85 млн свиноматок с общим поголовьем до 35 млн голов (при умеренном сценарии) или до 45 млн (при инновационном сценарии)
основные задачи для достижения плана:1. улучшение экономических условий
работы свиноводства России, обновление племенного потенциала, повышение конкурентоспособности и экономической эффективности производства свинины
2. создание и развитие сети селекционно-генетических центров с первоклассным научно-технологическим потенциалом
3. реконструкция действующих и создание новых производственных мощностей в товарном свиноводстве в рамках различных организационных моделей и форм хозяйственной деятельности
4. Развитие предприятий по убою и мясопереработке кормовой базы свиноводства, повышение качества кормов
5. разработка и внедрение современных стандартов качества и технического регламента производства свинины
• 2nd stage of the national program “Development of pork production 2013-2020”Objective to increase the national sow herd up to 2.85 mln sows with total pig stock up to 35 mln pigs ( with a moderate scenario) or up to 45 mln pigs (with an innovative scenario)
Key actions to achieve the targets: 1. Improvement of economy of pork sector.
2. Establishment of net of selection centers with innovative technologies
3. Reconstruction of existing production facilities & establishment of new operations within different organizational models & forms of business.
4. Development of slaughter & processing facilities and feed production for pork industry
5. Development & introduction of advanced quality standards & technical regulations of pork production.
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Expansion plan of yearly average swine stock in 2009-2012 & up to 2020,
’000 Hds 2008(факт)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2020 – Moderate
2020 – Innovative
Federal celection centers -- 65 296 740 1 000 2 000 2 268
Pork operations: 3 494 4 028 4 461 5 210 5 273 9 929 16 079
- units with capacity of 216 K heads 799 871 945 1 026 1 042 1 771 2 627
- units with capacity of 198 K heads 721 795 885 967 990 1 875 2 814
-unit with capacity of 54 K heads 545 619 715 793 800 1 400 3 940
- units with capacity from 6 up to 54K heads 1 429 1 742 1 915 2 424 2 441 4 883 6 698
Companies with capacity less than 6 K heads
3 506 3 662 3 784 4 121 4 205 11 364 12 195
Little farms (kolkhoz) 1 786 1 813 1 721 1 844 1 875 3 289 5 263
Private backyards 8 824 8 373 8 111 8 044 8 148 8 418 9 195
TOTAL17 609 17 941 18 372 19 960 20 500 35 000 45 000
Including sows 1 715 1 738 1 766 1 791 1 831 2 779 3 000
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Программа государственной финансовой поддержки:
1. Единовременные субсидии федерального бюджета племенным хозяйствам на
первоначальное приобретение свиноматок хряков с высоким генетическим потенциалом в
размере 20% от стоимости поголовья.2. Государственная поддержка ежегодного
обновления основного стада для плем. товар хозяйств в размере: для племхозяйств 6 тыс. рублей на голову, для товар. хозяйств 3 тыс. рублей на голову. Благодаря данному направлению государственной поддержки предполагается снизить зависимость российского свиноводства от поставки импортных плем животных, сформировать условия для возрождения и развития отечественного племенного свиноводства.
3. Государственная поддержка на содержание маточного стада племенных хозяйств отвечающих современным требованиям племенного дела в размере 5 тыс. рублей на основную и проверяемую свиноматку основного стада.
4. Государственная поддержка товарных продаж свинины из селекционно-племенных центров с целью компенсации затрат СГЦ при реализации свиноматок и хряков из основного стада на товарное мясо из расчета 20 руб. за килограмм живого веса
5. Субсидирование процентных ставок по инвестиционным кредитам для реконст-
рукции и строительства свиноводческих мощностей, предприятий по убою и мясопереработке и предприятий комбикормовой промышленности, финансовая поддержка НЦ
State financial program:
1. One-time subsidies from federal budget to breeding organizations for first purchase of sows & boars with a high genetic potential in amount of 20% from the stock value.
2. State support of annual replacement of the main herd for breeding & commercial complexes: 6 000 rb/head for breeding units & 3000 Rb/head for commercial units. With this measure it is planned to minimize dependence from imported breeding pigs & form proper conditions for restoration & further development of local swine breeding.
3. State financial support to grow sow stock of the breeding organizations in amount of 5 000 Rb for a productive sow in the main herd meeting all up-to-date requirements of the breeding operations.
4. State support of commercial sales of pork from selection centers with an aim to reimburse expenses of selection centers for slaughtering sows & boars from the main herd in amount of 20 Rb per 1 kg live weight.
5. Subsidies of interests rates of the investment loans taken for reconstruction & construction pig production projects, slaughter & processing facilities projects & feed production operations. Financial support of research centers.
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
The Republic produces 2.6M pigs in 1965!!!
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
The Result….
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Trade Restrictions….
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
…and other Politics
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Animal Welfare Concerns
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
COUNCIL DIRECTIVE 2001/88/ECof 23 October 2001
amending Directive 91/630/EEC laying down minimum standards for the protection of pig
Sows and gilts shall be kept in groups during a period starting from 4 weeks after the service to 1 week before the expected time of farrowing. The pen where the group is kept must have sides greater than 2,8 m in length. When less than 6 individuals are kept in a group the pen where the group is kept must have sides greater than 2,4 m in length.
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
COUNCIL DIRECTIVE 2001/93/ECof 23 October 2001
amending Directive 91/630/EEC laying down minimum standards for the protection of pig
• Focus on:– Light requirements and maximum noise levels, – Permanent access to materials for rooting and
playing, – Permanent access to fresh water, – Additional restrictive conditions to carry out
mutilations on pigs, – Minimum weaning age of four weeks.
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
UK Herd Size – 1973 - 2010
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
In response 40% of the UK herd is now outdoors
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN2011 - PIC Survey
Sow Stalls or Group Housing by 2020?
Group Housing Outdoors Sow Stalls -
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
Asia China EuropeLatin America North America
%
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
What does the Customer really want?
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TNFapri 2010 World Agriculture Outlook (2009 Data)
China49%
Japan3%
Vietnam2%
South Korea2%
Philippines1%
Russia3%
EU2721%
US9%
Brazil3%
Mex-ico2%
Chile0,3% Other
6%
Global Consumption
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Population Density
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Source: Brilliant Pioneer Consultant
Future of China’s Protein Consumption 2005 - 2030
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Million Tonnes
Beef Poultry
Pork
Dairy
Eggs
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
26222936
3255
47615153
4140
3587
8%
9.5%
6.2%6.8%
7.4%
8.0%
4.3%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
Stable increase of rural inhabitants’ income
Unit: RMB
Source: Statistics Bureau of China
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
No comparative advantage for land intensive agriculture
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
The new Integrators
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
PIC Nucleus in Benxi
PIC Symposium 2011 | Nashville, TN
Thank you!