PHILLIPS 66 FOURTH QUARTER CONFERENCE CALL · PHILLIPS 66 FOURTH QUARTER CONFERENCE CALL January...

39
PHILLIPS 66 FOURTH QUARTER CONFERENCE CALL January 29, 2014

Transcript of PHILLIPS 66 FOURTH QUARTER CONFERENCE CALL · PHILLIPS 66 FOURTH QUARTER CONFERENCE CALL January...

Page 1: PHILLIPS 66 FOURTH QUARTER CONFERENCE CALL · PHILLIPS 66 FOURTH QUARTER CONFERENCE CALL January 29, 2014 . ... Earnings Midstream Chemicals Refining Marketing & Specialties Corporate

PHILLIPS 66 FOURTH QUARTER CONFERENCE CALL January 29, 2014

Page 2: PHILLIPS 66 FOURTH QUARTER CONFERENCE CALL · PHILLIPS 66 FOURTH QUARTER CONFERENCE CALL January 29, 2014 . ... Earnings Midstream Chemicals Refining Marketing & Specialties Corporate

This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and

Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, which are intended to be covered by the safe harbors created thereby. Words and

phrases such as “is anticipated,” “is estimated,” “is expected,” “is planned,” “is scheduled,” “is targeted,” “believes,” “intends,” “objectives,” “projects,”

“strategies” and similar expressions are used to identify such forward-looking statements. However, the absence of these words does not mean that a

statement is not forward-looking. Forward-looking statements relating to Phillips 66’s operations (including joint venture operations) are based on

management’s expectations, estimates and projections about the company, its interests and the energy industry in general on the date this

presentation was prepared. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that

are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking

statements. Factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements include

fluctuations in crude oil, NGL, and natural gas prices, and refining and petrochemical margins; unexpected changes in costs for constructing,

modifying or operating our facilities; unexpected difficulties in manufacturing, refining or transporting our products; lack of, or disruptions in,

adequate and reliable transportation for our crude oil, natural gas, NGL, and refined products; potential liability from litigation or for remedial actions,

including removal and reclamation obligations, under environmental regulations; limited access to capital or significantly higher cost of capital

related to illiquidity or uncertainty in the domestic or international financial markets; and other economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory

factors affecting Phillips 66’s businesses generally as set forth in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Phillips 66 is under no

obligation (and expressly disclaims any such obligation) to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information,

future events or otherwise.

CAUTIONARY STATEMENT

2

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EXECUTING STRATEGY

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COMPANY OVERVIEW 4Q 2013

Adjusted Earnings:

Adjusted EPS:

Operating cash flow*:

Dividends paid:

Common shares repurchased:

2013 ROCE:

$808 MM

$1.34

$1,257 MM

$232 MM

$644 MM

14%

* Excluding working capital changes & net cash provided by discontinued operating activities

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521

808 (27) (1)

452

(153)

16

3Q 2013

Adjusted

Earnings

Midstream Chemicals Refining Marketing

& Specialties

Corporate

& Other

4Q 2013

Adjusted

Earnings

4Q 2013 Adjusted Earnings

$MM

121 (97) 450 261 73

COMPANY ADJUSTED EARNINGS 4Q 2013 VS. 3Q 2013

5

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MIDSTREAM OVERVIEW 4Q 2013

Transportation: Stable throughput volumes & fees

DCP Midstream: Lower equity gains & volumes

NGL Operations & Other: Higher margins & inventory impacts

2013 ROCE: 15%

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148

121

(4)

(50)

27

3Q 2013

Adjusted

Earnings

Transportation DCP

Midstream

NGL Operations

& Other

4Q 2013

Adjusted

Earnings

$MM

MIDSTREAM ADJUSTED EARNINGS 4Q 2013 VS. 3Q 2013

7

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CHEMICALS OVERVIEW 4Q 2013

Olefins & Polyolefins: 95% utilization

Specialties, Aromatics & Styrenics: Benzene turnaround

2013 ROCE: 26%

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262 261

23

(24)0

3Q 2013

Adjusted

Earnings

Olefins &

Polyolefins

Specialties,

Aromatics &

Styrenics

Corporate

& Other

4Q 2013

Adjusted

Earnings

$MM

CHEMICALS ADJUSTED EARNINGS 4Q 2013 VS. 3Q 2013

9

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REFINING OVERVIEW 4Q 2013

Realized refining margin: $10.75/BBL

Worldwide market capture: 112%

Refining crude utilization: 92%

Clean product yield: 84%

Advantaged U.S. crude slate: 94%

2013 ROCE: 13%

Worldwide market capture: 112%

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(2)

450

267

(185)

259

136

(25)

3Q 2013

Adjusted

Earnings

Gulf Coast Central

Corridor

Western /

Pacific

Atlantic

Basin /

Europe

Other

Refining

4Q 2013

Adjusted

Earnings

$MM

REFINING ADJUSTED EARNINGS 4Q 2013 VS. 3Q 2013

11

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9.62 10.75

0.30

(5.54)

4.60

1.77

Market

3:2:1

Configuration Secondary

Products

Feedstock Other Realized

Margin

WORLDWIDE REFINING $/BBL

REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 4Q 2013

12

Avg. Market Crude: $103.10/BBL 92% Crude Capacity Utilization 112% Market Capture

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16% 18% 18%

7%10% 12%

27%27% 24%

2%

7%14%

6%

2011 2012 2013

19% 18% 16% 17%

12% 12% 12% 13%

23% 24% 24%25%

14% 14% 14%15%

24%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

REFINING U.S. ADVANTAGED CRUDE SLATE 2011 – 2013

13

2013 by QUARTER

* Includes Shale Oil, Rocky Mountain Sweet (Casper, Wyoming), Mississippian Lime

(Oklahoma) and Granite Wash (Texas Panhandle)

Other Light/Medium

Tight Oil*

Other Heavy

Canadian Heavy

WTI Based

Total 68% 68% 66% 94% 52% 62% 74% Total

2011 to 2013

Other Light/Medium

Tight Oil*

Other Heavy

Canadian Heavy

WTI Based

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MARKETING AND SPECIALTIES OVERVIEW 4Q 2013

Worldwide marketing margin: 2.8 cpg

Specialties: Lower volumes

2013 ROCE: 27%

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226

73

(145)(8)

3Q 2013

Adjusted

Earnings

Marketing

& Other

Specialties 4Q 2013

Adjusted

Earnings

$MM

MARKETING AND SPECIALTIES ADJUSTED EARNINGS 4Q 2013 VS. 3Q 2013

15

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(113)(97)

1

26

(11)

3Q 2013

Adjusted

Net Loss

Net Interest

Expense

Corporate

Overhead Other

4Q 2013

Adjusted

Net Loss

$MM

CORPORATE AND OTHER ADJUSTED NET LOSS 4Q 2013 VS. 3Q 2013

16

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5.9 5.4

1.3

(0.4)(0.6) (0.2)

(0.6)

September 30

Cash

Balance*

CFO

(excluding

working

capital)

Working

Capital

Capital

Expenditures

& Investments

Dividends Share

Repurchases

December 31

Cash

Balance*

$B

COMPANY CASH FLOW 4Q 2013

17

* Includes cash and cash equivalents. $0.4 B of the balance relates to cash and cash equivalents held by Phillips 66 Partners LP

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19.0 20.6 20.8 21.4 21.7 22.0 22.4

8.0 8.0 7.0 7.0 6.5 6.2 6.2

30%28%

25% 25%23%

22% 22%

2Q 2012 3Q 2012 4Q 2012 1Q 2013 2Q 2013 3Q 2013 4Q 2013

Equity $B Debt $B Debt to Capital

20% - 30%

CAPITAL STRUCTURE 2Q 2012 – 4Q 2013

18

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3.5 3.8 5.4

6.0

(1.8) (0.8)

(2.2)

(1.0)

0.1

1.2 0.4

Ending

Cash

2012

Cash From

Operations

Capital

Program

Dividends Share

Repurchases

Debt Other Ending Cash

(excl. Asset

Sales & PSXP)

Asset

Sales

PSXP

IPO Net

Proceeds

Ending

Cash

2013

$B

SOURCES AND USES OF CASH 2013

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$MM

COMPANY ADJUSTED EARNINGS 2013

20

3,643

469

986

1,838

781

(431)

Midstream Chemicals Refining Marketing

& Specialties

Corporate

& Other

2013 Adjusted

Earnings

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21

OUTLOOK

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PHILLIPS 66 FOURTH QUARTER 2013 CONFERENCE CALL

Questions and Answers

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PHILLIPS 66 FOURTH QUARTER 2013 CONFERENCE CALL

Appendix

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SENSITIVITIES 2014

24

Sensitivities shown above are independent and are only valid within a limited price range

Net Income $MM

Midstream

1¢/Gal Increase in NGL price 4

10¢/MMBtu Increase in Natural Gas price 2

$1/BBL Increase in WTI price 2

Chemicals

1¢/Lb Increase in Olefins Chain Margin (Ethylene, Polyethylene, NAO) 35

Worldwide Refining (assuming 94% refining utilization)

$1/BBL Increase in Refining Margin 440

$1/BBL Widening LLS / Maya Differential (LLS less Maya) 50

$1/BBL Widening WTI / WCS Differential (WTI less WCS) 40

$1/BBL Widening WTI / WTS Differential (WTI less WTS) 15

$1/BBL Widening LLS / WCS Differential (LLS less WCS) 10

$1/BBL Widening ANS / WCS Differential (ANS less WCS) 10

$0.10/MMBtu Increase in Natural Gas price (10)

Impacts due to Actual Crude Feedstock Differing from Feedstock Assumed in Market Indicators:

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7.42

5.12

0.48

(2.39)

(1.96)

1.57

Market

3:2:1

Configuration Secondary

Products

Feedstock Other Realized

Margin

ATLANTIC BASIN / EUROPE $/BBL

REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 4Q 2013

25

Market 3:2:1 – Dated Brent / Gasoline 83.7 RBOB NYH / Diesel 15ppm NYH

Brent: $109.27/BBL 82% Crude Capacity Utilization 69% Market Capture

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9.09 9.84

0.40

(6.37)

2.88

3.84

Market

3:2:1

Configuration Secondary

Products

Feedstock Other Realized

Margin

GULF COAST $/BBL

REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 4Q 2013

26

Market 3:2:1 – LLS / Gasoline 85 CBOB / Diesel 61 8ppm

LLS: $100.94/BBL 93% Crude Capacity Utilization 108% Market Capture

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10.66

18.50

0.27

(6.27)

10.39

3.45

Market

3:2:1

Configuration Secondary

Products

Feedstock Other Realized

Margin

CENTRAL CORRIDOR $/BBL

REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 4Q 2013

27

Market 3:2:1 – WTI / Gasoline Unl 87 Group 3 / ULSD Group 3

WTI: $97.38/BBL 100% Crude Capacity Utilization 174% Market Capture

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12.34

9.51

(0.24)

(6.83)

6.63

(2.39)

Market

3:2:1

Configuration Secondary

Products

Feedstock Other Realized

Margin

WESTERN / PACIFIC $/BBL

REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 4Q 2013

28

Market 3:2:1 – ANS Spot / Los Angeles CARBOB / Los Angeles No. 2 CARB

ANS: $104.67/BBL 95% Crude Capacity Utilization 77% Market Capture

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1,298

808

50 15

(510) (40) (5)

4Q 2012

Adjusted

Earnings

Midstream Chemicals Refining Marketing

& Specialties

Corporate

& Other

4Q 2013

Adjusted

Earnings

4Q 2013 Adjusted Earnings

$MM

121 (97) 450 261 73

COMPANY ADJUSTED EARNINGS 4Q 2013 VS. 4Q 2012

29

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71

121

36

(1)

15

4Q 2012

Adjusted

Earnings

Transportation DCP

Midstream

NGL Operations

& Other

4Q 2013

Adjusted

Earnings

$MM

MIDSTREAM ADJUSTED EARNINGS 4Q 2013 VS. 4Q 2012

30

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246 261

26

(26)

15

4Q 2012

Adjusted

Earnings

Olefins &

Polyolefins

Specialties,

Aromatics &

Styrenics

Corporate

& Other

4Q 2013

Adjusted

Earnings

$MM

CHEMICALS ADJUSTED EARNINGS 4Q 2013 VS. 4Q 2012

31

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960

450

(285)

34

(132) (35)(92)

4Q 2012

Adjusted

Earnings

Atlantic

Basin /

Europe

Gulf

Coast

Central

Corridor

Western /

Pacific

Other

Refining

4Q 2013

Adjusted

Earnings

$MM

REFINING ADJUSTED EARNINGS 4Q 2013 VS. 4Q 2012

32

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113

73

(33) (7)

4Q 2012

Adjusted

Earnings

Marketing

& Other

Specialties 4Q 2013

Adjusted

Earnings

$MM

MARKETING AND SPECIALTIES ADJUSTED EARNINGS 4Q 2013 VS. 4Q 2012

33

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(92) (97)

(6)

7

(6)

4Q 2012

Adjusted

Net Loss

Net Interest

Expense

Corporate

Overhead Other

4Q 2013

Adjusted

Net Loss

$MM

CORPORATE AND OTHER ADJUSTED NET LOSS 4Q 2013 VS. 4Q 2012

34

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NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q

Phillips 66

Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 3,726$ 826$ 535$ 4,124$ 708$

Adjustments:

Net (gain) loss on asset sales (23) - - (106) -

Impairments - - - 979 580

Exit of business line 34 - - - -

Tax law impacts (17) - - - -

Pending claims and settlements (16) - - 34 (23)

Premium on early debt retirement - - - 89 -

Repositioning costs - - - 55 12

Repositioning tax impacts - - - 177 -

Hurricane-related costs - - - 35 35

Discontinued Operations (61) (18) (14) (48) (14)

Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 3,643$ 808$ 521$ 5,339$ 1,298$

Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 Per Share of Common Stock (dollars)* 6.02$ 1.37$ 0.87$ 6.48$ 1.11$

Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 Per Share of Common Stock (dollars)* 5.89$ 1.34$ 0.85$ 8.38$ 2.04$

* Assumes the dilutive securities outstanding at April 30, 2012 were also outstanding for each of the periods prior to the separation

2013

Millions of Dollars

Except as Indicated

2012

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NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q

Midstream

Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 469$ 121$ 148$ 53$ 92$

Adjustments:

Impairments - - - 330 -

Pending claims and settlements - - - (23) (23)

Hurricane-related costs - - - 2 2

Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 469$ 121$ 148$ 362$ 71$

Chemicals

Net Income (loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 986$ 261$ 262$ 823$ 246$

Adjustments:

Impairments - - - 27 -

Premium on early debt retirement - - - 89 -

Repositioning tax impacts - - - 41 -

Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 986$ 261$ 262$ 980$ 246$

2013

Millions of Dollars

Except as Indicated

2012

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NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q

Refining

Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 1,851$ 450$ (2)$ 3,217$ 363$

Adjustments:

Net (gain) loss on asset sales - - - (104) -

Impairments - - - 606 564

Tax law impacts (13) - - - -

Pending claims and settlements - - - 19 -

Repositioning tax impacts - - - 73 -

Hurricane-related costs - - - 33 33

Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 1,838$ 450$ (2)$ 3,844$ 960$

Marketing & Specialties

Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 790$ 73$ 226$ 417$ 113$

Adjustments:

Net (gain) loss on asset sales (23) - - (2) -

Pending claims and settlements (16) - - 38 -

Exit of business line 34 - - - -

Tax law impacts (4) - - - -

Repositioning tax impacts - - - 63 -

Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 781$ 73$ 226$ 516$ 113$

Millions of Dollars

Except as Indicated

20122013

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38 * Total equity plus total debt

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

2013 Phillips 66 Midstream Chemicals RefiningMarketing

& Specialties

Numerator ($MM)

Net Income 3,743 486 986 1,851 790

After-tax interest expense 178 - - - -

GAAP ROCE earnings 3,921 486 986 1,851 790

Special Items (83) - - (13) (9)

Adjusted ROCE earnings 3,838 486 986 1,838 781

Denominator ($MM)

GAAP average capital employed* 28,163 3,158 3,823 14,252 2,882

Discontinued Operations (191)

Adjusted average capital employed 27,972 3,158 3,823 14,252 2,882

2013 Adjusted ROCE 14% 15% 26% 13% 27%

2013 GAAP ROCE 14% 15% 26% 13% 27%

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39

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

Millions of

Dollars

2013

4Q

Cash Flows from Operating Activities

Net Cash provided by continuing operating activities, excluding working capital 1,257$

Working capital adjustments

Decrease (increase) in accounts and notes receivable (54)

Decrease (increase) in inventories 1,391

Decrease (increase) in prepaid expenses and other current assets 110

Increase (decrease) in accounts payable (1,657)

Increase (decrease) in taxes and other accruals (182)

Net cash provided by continuing operating activities 865

Net cash provided by discontinued operations 32

Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities 897$