Phillip Securities Indonesia – Research Division Sector ... · Sector Coverage. Gunawan Sutanto:...
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Phillip Securities Indonesia – Research Division Gunawan Sutanto, Hd of Research Aditya Perdana Putra, Economist & Equity Analyst Martha Christina, Equity Analyst Destya Faishal, Junior Analyst Sector Coverage Gunawan Sutanto: Miscellaneous Industry, Agriculture, Mining Aditya Perdana Putra: Banking, Property, Construction Martha Christina: Consumer Goods, Basic Industry, Trade & Services Phillip Securities Indonesia ANZ Tower, Level 23B Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 33A Jakarta 10220, Indonesia Phone: +62 21 57 900 900 Email: [email protected] www.poems.co.id Phillip Securities Indonesia. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities Indonesia accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Transcript of Phillip Securities Indonesia – Research Division Sector ... · Sector Coverage. Gunawan Sutanto:...
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Phillip Securities Indonesia – Research DivisionGunawan Sutanto, Hd of Research
Aditya Perdana Putra, Economist & Equity AnalystMartha Christina, Equity Analyst
Destya Faishal, Junior Analyst
Sector CoverageGunawan Sutanto: Miscellaneous Industry, Agriculture, Mining
Aditya Perdana Putra: Banking, Property, ConstructionMartha Christina: Consumer Goods, Basic Industry, Trade & Services
Phillip Securities IndonesiaANZ Tower, Level 23B
Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 33AJakarta 10220, Indonesia
Phone: +62 21 57 900 900Email: [email protected]
www.poems.co.id
Phillip Securities Indonesia. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.Phillip Securities Indonesia accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
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Phillip Securities Indonesia. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.Phillip Securities Indonesia accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer
• This presentation is prepared by Phillip Securities Indonesia, PT. (“PSI”). By going through this presentation, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below.
• This presentation shall not be reproduced in whole or in part, distributed or published by you for any purpose. Phillip Securities Indonesia shall not be liable for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this presentation.
• The information contained in this presentation has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities Indonesia has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. Phillip Securities Indonesia has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this presentation is subject to change, and Phillip Securities Indonesia shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will Phillip Securities Indonesia be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages.
• Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this material are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice.
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Phillip Securities Indonesia. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.Phillip Securities Indonesia accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
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Economy: More Questions Than Answer
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On The Menu Today
• Review in 2013
• Economic Outlook in 2014
• Politics Views
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Review in 2013
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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
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Review in 2013
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Phillip Securities Indonesia. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.Phillip Securities Indonesia accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
4.4 4 4.2 4.5
5.76.2 5.8 6.1 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.4 6.17 6.23 6.02 5.81 5.62
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
QI QII QIII QIV QI QII QIII QIV QI QII QIII QIV QI QII QIII QIV QI QII QIII
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
(%)
(15,000)
(10,000)
(5,000)
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2
2011 2012 2013
In M
illio
n U
SD
Total (I+II) Current Account (I) Capital and Financial Account (II)
Grafik. Pertumbuhan PDB Grafik. Perkembangan Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia
Source Bank Indonesia, BPS Source Bank Indonesia, BPS
• PDB QIII-13 tercatat 5.62%,
• Defisit transaksi berjalan QIII-13 sebesar USD 8.4 miliar (3.8% dari PDB)
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Review in 2013
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8.5
5.9
11.6
2.41.9
7.2
5.15.6 5.7
8.4
6
1
4.23.4
4.34.4 4.43.73.8
3.2 3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2011 2012 2013
Foodstuff Transportation, CommunicationPrepaid foods, beverages, cigarette and tobacco ClothingHousing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Fuel Education, Recreation, and SportHealth
Source: BPS
Year on year Inflation of Indonesia (%)
• Porsi transportasi, dan bahan makanan mengakumulasi kenaikan terbesar bagi inflasi di 2013,
seiring dengan kenaikan harga BBM.
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Review in 2013
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Source: Bank Indonesia
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Review in 2013
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Coal15%
Natural Gas10%
Palm Oil10%
Textile8% Electrical
Apparatus6%Base Metal
Products5%
Processed Rubber
5%
Agriculture Product
3%
Liquified Natural Gas
3%
Others35%
Machinery , 18.4%
Electrical Equipments, 13
.2%
Iron & Steel, 7.5%
Vehicle, 5.8% Plastic & Plastic
Article, 5.3%Organic
Chemical, 5.0%
Articles of Iron & Steel, 3.6%
Others, 41.3%
Source: CEIC, CITI Indonesia Source: CEIC, CITI Indonesia
Composition of Indonesia Export (Jan – Jun 13) Composition of Indonesia Import (Jan – Jun 13)
• Komoditas menyumbang sekitar 50% terhadap total Ekspor Indonesia,
• Mesin, barang-barang elektronik, baja dan besi menyumbang sekitar 40% dari total Impor
Indonesia.
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Review in 2013
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SOUTHBRAZIL INDONESIA INDIA AFRICA TURKEY
GDP (% yoy) 2.5 5.3 3.8 2 3.6Inflation (%yoy) 6.3 9 10.9 5.9 6.6Unemployment rate (% yoy) 5.8 5.9 9.9 26 9.4Fiscal Balance (%GDP) -1.2 -2.8 -8.3 -2.2 -7.5Current Account Balance (%GDP) -3.4 -3 -4.4 -6.8 -6.1Exchange Rate (Change ptp%) -12.5 -14 -12.6 -16.9 -10.5International Reserve 379.1 98 261.5 41.3 112External Debt (% GDP) 19.4 28.1 20.7 37.6 45.9
Source: Bank Indonesia
• Kenaikan defisit transaksi berjalan, diikuti pula oleh pelemahan mata uang negara yang bersangkutan.
• Indonesia tercatat memiliki defisit sebesar 3% dengan pelemahan nilai tukar yang mencapai 14%.
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Review in 2013
Phillip Securities Indonesia. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.Phillip Securities Indonesia accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Forecast Dates Unit Frequency 11960.00 11960.00 16650.00 888.11 12052.04 | 2014/01 1991 - 2013 Daily
Source: Trading Economics
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Economic Outlook in 2014
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Outlook in 2014
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Kenaikan harga minyak, masihakan tetap menjadi concern bagipemerintah. Terlebih hal ini akanmembebani APBN dan CAD.
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Outlook in 2014
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IDR/US$
CAD
Export
BI Rate
Economic Growth
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Outlook in 2014
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• PDB diprediksi mencapai 5.8% dengan tingkat inflasi yang kembali moderat di level 5%,
• Rupiah diprediksi kembali ke level Rp 11,000/US$ – 11,300/US$ di tahun depan, dengan defisit
yang kami perkirakan akan dibawah minus 3%.
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Outlook in 2014
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Global Systemic Risk by Country (USD billion)
Source: vlab.stern.nyu.edu
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Outlook in 2014
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Global Systemic Risk on Banking Sector in Indonesia
Source: vlab.stern.nyu.edu
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Source: World Economy Forum
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Outlook in 2014
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Source: World Economic Forum
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Outlook in 2014
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Source Bank Indonesia, BPS, PSI
2013 Source of2012 I II III 2013E 2014E Growth
Private Consumption Expenditure 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.5 4.7-5.3 5.1-5.5 55%Government Expenditure 1.2 0.4 2.1 8.8 5-5.4 1.2-1.6 7%Gross Fixed Capital Formation 9.8 5.5 4.5 4.5 3.6-4 5.7-6.1 33%Export of Goods and Services 2 3.6 4.8 5.3 4.3-4.7 6.4-6.7 15%Import of Goods and Services - 0 0.5 3.8 0.4-0.8 5.8-6.2 -GDP 6.2 6.1 5.8 5.6 5.5-5.9 5.5-6.0
• Pertumbuhan PDB akan berkisar di antara 5.5%-6%,
• Konsumsi masyarakat akan tetap menjadi motor utama bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia
ke depan.
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Politics: Who’s The Man?
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Politics Scheme
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• Jokowi dianggap memiliki nilai yang baik dimata masyarakat, dan menggungguli sejumlah
kandidat kuat lainnya seperti Prabowo dan Aburizal Bakrie.
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Politics Scheme
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• PDI-P diunggulkan dengan sejumlah calon yang dianggap dapat mengakomodir keinginan rakyat
dan memiliki figur yang mempunyai elektabilitas yang tinggi.
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Politics Scheme
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Sector Strategy
Phillip Securities Indonesia. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.Phillip Securities Indonesia accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Source: Phillip Securities Indonesia - Research
Sector PreviousRating
Upgrade / Downgrade
Current Rating
Since Sector IndexDaily Close
% Chg. Since Last Rating
Agriculture Neutral Upgrade Overweight / Outperform 29 Nov 2013 2001.91 2.81%
Basic Industry & Chemicals Neutral Downgrade Underweight /
Underperform 29 Nov 2013 467.08 0.10%
Consumer Goods Industry Neutral - Neutral 29 Nov 2013 1757.81 0.00%
Finance Neutral - Neutral 29 Nov 2013 533.87 -1.61%
Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation Neutral - Neutral - 922.30 -
Mining Overweight / Outperform - Overweight /
Outperform 16 Oct 2013 1456.94 -3.65%
Miscellaneous Industry Overweight / Outperform Downgrade Neutral 29 Nov 2013 1131.65 -0.16%
Property & Real Estate Neutral Downgrade Underweight / Underperform 29 Nov 2013 341.35 -1.06%
Trade, Services & Investment Neutral - Neutral - 773.85 -
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
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Talk to us. Talk to Phillip.
Phillip Securities IndonesiaANZ Tower, Level 23BJl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 33AJakarta 10220Indonesia
Gunawan Sutanto - Head of Research(62 21) 57900800 | [email protected]
Aditya Perdana Putra - Economist & Equity Analyst(62 21) 57900800 | [email protected]
Martha - Equity Analyst(62 21) 57900800 | [email protected]
Destya Faishal - Junior Analyst(62 21) 57900800 | [email protected]
Phillip Securities Indonesia. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.Phillip Securities Indonesia accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Phillip Securities Indonesia. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.Phillip Securities Indonesia accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
