Philippine 2040BAU and alternative scenariosBased on T21 Philippines V3.1By Weishuang u! Ph.".#illenniu$ %nstituteAugust! 201&You cannot solve the problem with the same thinking that created the problemAlbert Einstein #a'or topics#a'or topics1. BAU (Business)as)Usual* scenario2. Alternative scenarios2.1 +iscal collection2.2 Budget allocation2.3 ,nergy2.4 Total -ertility and la.or2.& /onsu$ption and invest$ent1. BAU 0cenario#a'or assu$ptions o- BAU1.1 Population! la.or and education1.2 +ood and nutrition1.3 Water1.4 1and1.& ,nergy1.2 3"P and inco$eBAU #a'or Assu$ptions45o $a'or6sudden policy changes! 45o cli$ate change i$pacts! 45o social and political distur.ances! 45o natural disasters! 45o -inancial crisis! and 45o 7ar.1.1 Population! la.or! education in 20404Population8 139 #4Total -ertility8 1.:; (3.02 no7*4Average li-e e no74Access to i$proved sanitation at 9&> no71.41and4Agriculture (ara.le and pasture*! -orest! settle$ent! and other land4Ara.le land (11 # @a* is pro.a.ly at its peaAB4+orest land 40ettle$ent land 7ill increase 7ith population siCe1.& ,nergy8 electric po7er4,lectric po7er de$and not -ully $et! as consu$ption is constrained .y supply4Po7er -ro$ -ossil -uels is 90>4Dil and coal are $ostly i$ported! thus it $aAes $ore sense to develop rene7a.les4/urrent capacities o- hydro (3200 #W*! geother$al (2000 #W*! 7ind and solar4Potential capacities o- rene7a.les to .e e=Per 7orAer output gro7th only 1>=%nvest$ent63"P ratio8 a.out 0.2=1o7 +"% (1.&> o- 3"P*=@igh private -actor inco$e (20> o- 3"P*="ue to population gro7th! per person inco$e gro7th 7as $uch lo7er than 3"P gro7th4T21 generates 4.& = 2> -or 201& = 20402Alternative scenarios2.1 +iscal collection2.2 Budget allocation2.3 ,nergy2.4 Total -ertility and la.or2.& /onsu$ption and invest$entThanA FouHThanA FouH#,an. you1#,an. you12our 3uestions are %elome12our 3uestions are %elome1777.$illenniu$)institute.org7IJ$illenniu$)institute.org