Philippe de Lapérouse - Global Aquaculture Alliance · 2019-09-19 · Philippe de Lapérouse...

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Philippe de Lapérouse

HighQuest Partners United States Philippe de Lapérouse is director of HighQuest Partners’ global food and agribusiness practice. He has more than 20 years experience in senior leadership positions with global companies in the agroindustrial and value-added food chain, as well as in private-equity investing. Previously, de Lapérouse was a principal at Vanikoro Advisory LLC and director of business development for Bunge North America Inc.

Trends in Global Feed Demand for Aquaculture


Managing Director HighQuest Partners

Global daily calorie intake per capita

3

•   World: 2780 kcal/person/day •   Developed countries: 3420 kcal/person/day •   Developing World: 2630 kcal/person/day •   Sub-Saharan Africa: 2240 kcal/person/day •   Central Africa: 1820 kcal/person/day •   Kilocalorie: A unit of measurement of dietary energy. One kcal equals 1,000 calories and one kJ equals 1,000 joules.

In the International System of Units (ISU), the universal unit of dietary energy is the joule (J). One kcal = 4.184 kJ.

Source: UNEP-GRID-Arendal based on FAO Statistics Division Food Balance Sheets (2010)

4

Source: UNEP-GRID-Arendal based on FAO STATS(2010)

Global meat consumption per capita

Global fish consumption (2006)

5

Source: FAO SOFIA

Note: ‘Fish’ includes wild caught fish as well as commercial aquaculture products.

Global aquaculture production(1000 MT)

6

Source: UNEP-GRID-Arendal based on FAOSTAT (2011)

China is by far leading global producer of aquaculture

7

Source: FAO Fishstat Database.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1950

19

52

1954

19

56

1958

19

60

1962

19

64

1966

19

68

1970

19

72

1974

19

76

1978

19

80

1982

19

84

1986

19

88

1990

19

92

1994

19

96

1998

20

00

2002

20

04

2006

20

08

2010

MM

T

Aquaculture Production by Country 1950-2011 Source: FAO

Other

Egypt

Thailand

Norway

Korea, Republic of

Bangladesh

Philippines

Vietnam

India

Indonesia

China

8

Total seafood production and consumption per capita

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1980

19

81

1982

19

83

1984

19

85

1986

19

87

1988

19

89

1990

19

91

1992

19

93

1994

19

95

1996

19

97

1998

19

99

2000

20

01

2002

20

03

2004

20

05

2006

20

07

2008

20

09

kg/c

apita

/yea

r

MM

T

Historical Seafood Production and Per Capita Consumption (1980-2009)

Source: FAO

Production Per Capita Consumption

Source: FAO FishStat Database

Projected seafood consumption by source through 2050

9

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1950

19

53

1956

19

59

1962

19

65

1968

19

71

1974

19

77

1980

19

83

1986

19

89

1992

19

95

1998

20

01

2004

20

07

2010

20

13

2016

20

19

2022

20

25

2028

20

31

2034

20

37

2040

20

43

2046

20

49

MM

T

Projected Global Seafood Production through 2050 Source: FAO, HighQuest Analysis

Wild Catch Aquaculture

HQP estimate based on linear growth rate (1980-2011) of production for wild catch(1.0%) and aquaculture(8.1%): •   2013 - 2021 at historical growth rate •   2022 - 2031 at 75% of historical growth rate •   2032 - 2041 at 50% of historical growth rate •   2042 - 2050 at 25% of historical growth rate

Breakdown of total wild catch and aquaculture production

10

Aquatic plants

1%

Crustaceans 7% Diadromous

fish 2%

Freshwater fish 10%

Marine fish 72%

Misc. aquatic animals

1%

Molluscs 7%

2011 Wild Capture Production Source: FAO

Aquatic plants 25%

Crustaceans 7%

Diadromous fish 5%

Freshwater fish 43%

Marine fish 2%

Misc. aquatic animals

1% Molluscs

17%

2011 Aquaculture Production Source: FAO

Global protein consumption demand

11

•   Shrimp has the fastest growth rate out of all animal proteins at 4.6% annually.

•   Catfish and poultry follow with a

10 year forecasted CAGR of 2.7% and 2.3% respectively.

•   As seafood demand grows and

aquaculture production replaces wild-caught harvests, demand for feed within the aquaculture industry, specifically soybean meal, will increase rapidly.

Seafood and poultry will see the largest increases in demand in the coming decade

Source: FAO; HighQuest Partners

-

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

Global Protein Demand

Poultry

Beef

Pork

Salmon

Shrimp

Catfish

Pellagic fish 1%

0.7%

2.3%

2.7% 4.6%

Aquaculture growth exceeds other animal proteins

12

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1980

19

82

1984

19

86

1988

19

90

1992

19

94

1996

19

98

2000

20

02

2004

20

06

2008

MMT

Global Growth in Protein Production (1980-2009)

Source: FAO

Meat

Eggs

Milk

Wild Catch

Aquaculture

CAGR (1980-2009)

+8.2% +1.0% +1.4% +3.2% +2.6%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1961

19

64

1967

19

70

1973

19

76

1979

19

82

1985

19

88

1991

19

94

1997

20

00

2003

20

06

2009

MM

T

Global Animal Protein Production for Food Consumption (1960-2009)

Source: FAO

Seafood Meat Eggs Milk

Feed requirements for aquaculture

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0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1990

19

92

1994

19

96

1998

20

00

2002

20

04

2006

20

08

2010

20

12

2014

20

16

2018

20

20

1,00

0 M

T

Projected Feed Requirements Source: USDA FAS, FAO, HighQuest Analysis

Land-Based Protein

Aquaculture

Aquaculture Share of Feed Demand

+2.2% CAGR

+6.4% CAGR -

100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000

1990

19

92

1994

19

96

1998

20

00

2002

20

04

2006

20

08

2010

20

12

2014

20

16

2018

20

20

1,00

0 M

T

World Protein Production Source: USDA FAS, FAO, HighQuest Analysis

Land-Based Protein Aquaculture

Note: Land-based protein includes pork, beef, broilers, dairy, and eggs.

Rising demand as per capita acreage declines

14 Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2013 by HighQuest Partners LLC. All rights reserved.

•   Global consump/on of corn, soybeans and wheat has increased 291%, 768% and 170% respec/vely to 870 million MT 260 million MT and 680 million MT.

•   Per capita soybean consump/on has been growing significantly (by 302% to 37 kg/ person since 1964) thanks to increasing demands from industrial sector and animal feed sector, while per capita corn and wheat consump/on reached 123 kg/ person (growth of 81%) and 96 kg/person (growth of 25%) respec/vely in 2012.

•   Global harvested acreage has increased by 33% to 913 million hectares in 2012 from 689 million hectares in 1964. •   Global harvested acreage on a per capita basis has dropped 38% to es/mated 0.13 ha/person in 2012 from 0.21 ha/person in

1964. •   Note: The crops include barley, corn, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, wheat, mixed grain, rice and oilseeds (copra , palm kernel,

co:onseed, peanut, rapeseed, soybean, sunflower seed).

Market vola5lity driven by uncertainty of available supply


Historical global per capita feed grain and oilseed ending stocks (MT) (1964 – 2012 proj.)

0.00

0.03

0.05

0.08

0.10

Per capita feed grains ending stock Per capita oilseeds ending stock

•   Global feed grains ending stock has grown by 108% to es/mated 354.7 million MT in 2012 from 170 million MT in 1964 while it has decreased by 4% to 0.05 MT/ person in 2012 on a per capita basis.

•   Global oilseeds ending stock has grown over 42 /mes to es/mated 73.9 million MT in 2012 while on a per capita basis, it has grown by less than 20 /mes to es/mated 0.01 MT/ person in 2012.

Declining yield gains in major crops – can trend be reversed?


-0.01

0.01

0.03

0.05 Soybeans

-1%

1%

3%

5% Corn

-1%

1%

3%

5% Rice

-1%

1%

3%

5%

1971

19

74

1977

19

80

1983

19

86

1989

19

92

1995

19

98

2001

20

04

2007

20

10

Wheat 0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Global Yields for 4 Major Crops Historical and Projected

(MT / ha) Corn

Rice

Wheat

Soy

Source: USDA; HighQuest Analysis

Trailing 10-Year Yield Improvement

Demand for commodi5es driven by rapid GDP/capita growth in developing and emerging markets


Animal protein consump5on highly correlated with per capita GDP


Animal Protein Consumption(kg) Per Capita vs. GDP Per Capita(PPP basis) - 2010

R² = 0.67086

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

Consum

p5on

per cap

ita (k

g)

GDP per capita(PPP)

Australia USA

Japan

UAE

S. Korea Norway

New Zealand

China

Higher GDP driving demand for oilseed meal


R² = 0.93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000

Oils

eed

Mea

l Con

sum

ptio

n/Cap

ita

GDP/Capita (PPP-basis)

2009 Oilseed Protein Meal Consumption/Capita vs. GDP/Capita (PPP-basis)

US

Canada

EU

Argentina

Middle EastFSU-12SE AsiaN. AfricaSSA

IndiaS. Asia

China – meal demand forecast to increase 60%


Over the past 15 years, meal consump/on in China has had a 99% correla/on with GDP per capita. Based on this correla/on and OECD projec/ons for future GDP growth in China, HighQuest projects that Chinese meal consump/on will increase by 60% over the next decade (50 to 80 million MT).

Impact of exports to China and ethanol produc5on on US farmland use


Tilapia and shrimp production in the Americas

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•   From 1971 through 2008, Central and South America have experienced a 4.9% CAGR increase in shrimp aquaculture production.

•   Mexico has experienced a 17% CAGR in shrimp

and tilapia aquaculture production during the same period.

•   Central America has experienced a 3% CAGR

in shrimp production during this period while South America has experienced an11% CAGR increase.

While tilapia production in the Americas is smaller than shrimp production, it is ramping up quickly.

Source: FAO, HighQuest Analysis

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1950

19

53

1956

19

59

1962

19

65

1968

19

71

1974

19

77

1980

19

83

1986

19

89

1992

19

95

1998

20

01

2004

20

07

MT Prod

uc5o

n

Americas Tilapia Production* (1950-2008)

South America

Mexico

0 50,000

100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000

1950

19

53

1956

19

59

1962

19

65

1968

19

71

1974

19

77

1980

19

83

1986

19

89

1992

19

95

1998

20

01

2004

20

07

MT P

rodu

ctio

n

Americas Shrimp Production* (1950-2008)

South America Central America Mexico

Soybean meal demand for aqua feed in the Caribbean Basin and Canada

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•   Soybean meal required for aquaculture rations in the Caribbean Basin and Canada will continue to increase to over 450,000 tons per year by 2030.

•   US suppliers can expect to supply

most of the additional soybean meal required by these regions due to landed price competitiveness, preferential trade relationships and the positive marketing of US soybeans and soy bean products throughout the region.

Source: FAO; HighQuest Analysis

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

1950

19

54

1958

19

62

1966

19

70

1974

19

78

1982

19

86

1990

19

94

1998

20

02

2006

20

10

2014

20

18

2022

20

26

2030

MT

Caribbean Basin and Canada Soybean Meal Usage for Aqua feed

1950-2030F

Honduras

El Salvador

Panama

Nicaragua

Costa Rica

Colombia

Canada

Ecuador

Mexico

Salmon feed rations

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Salmon feed ra@ons are becoming less dependent on fish meal , using soy isolates and meals as replacements.

Source: Jan Van Eys, PhD

Blood gluten meal 2%

Corn gluten meal 2%

Fish meal Hi CP 30%

Fish meal Low CP 9%

Meat + bone meal 2%

Meat meal 3%

Rice bran 2%

Soybean Meal, CF<5-7 %; CP < 44 %

1%

Soybean Meal, CF<5-7 %; CP > 44 %

5%

Soy Protein Conc 10%

Wheat 10%

Wheypowder 2%

All Additives (oil+vit+min+carbs)

22%

Salmon Feed Ra5ons •   Salmon feed is likely to reduce its dependence on fish meal for protein

content. •   Soybean isolates and new varieties of conventional and GM

soybeans are being developed to replace the amino acids that are predominantly provideed by fish meal.

•   These new varieties of soybeans are not yet commercially available.

•   Fish meal or oil is currently needed to provide salmon with Omega-3 fatty

acids, methionine and cystine. •   Soybean meal will still grow a viable fish stock, however the

Omega-3’s touted as the primary health benefit of salmon consumption is dependent on the amount of Omega-3 fatty acids in the diet.

•   Soybean meal is unpalatable to Chinook salmon and most carnivorous

fish at certain stages of development. •   Development in additives are being tested.

•   There are lectins present in SBM that reduce nutrient absorption in salmonids, however lectins can be deactivated by treatment during processing.

•   Trypsin inhibitors also present in SBM inhibit some protein absorption .

Salmon feed rations

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Currently, farmed salmon require only 39% fish meal and oil in their diet compared with almost 80% less than a decade ago. This percentage is expected to continue decreasing. •  Despite a stagnant supply of fish meal, salmon

production has been increasing. Soybean meal and other protein substitutes are increasingly being formulated into rations for farmed salmon in an effort to reduce costs and compensate for the decreasing supply of fish meal.

•  A minimum of 15% of the feed ration for salmon needs to composed of fish oil as this is the main source of omega-3-fatty acids, which is an important marketing characteristic of salmon.

–  Commercial rations could reduce the use of fish oil further if a plant based or other plausible source of omega-3-fatty acids were discovered.

–  Currently there are no restrictions on nor monitoring of the levels of Omega-3’s present in salmon.

Source: Marine Harvest

Tilapia feed rations

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Tilapia are herbivorous fish and therefore require little animal protein in their diet; soybean meal currently accounts for 27% of tilapia commercial rations.

Bloodmeal sp.dr. 2%

Corn 8%

Corn gluten 3%

Cottonseed ext 4%

DDGS 7%

Feathermeal, hydr 2%

Fish meal; CP 3%

Fish meal; Low 4%

Peanut ext 2%

Meat + bone meal 2%

Meat meal 3%

Rape seed, ext 3%

Rice 3%

Rice bran 6%

Soybean Meal, CF<5-7 %; CP < 44 %

7%

Soybean Meal, CF<5-7 %; CP > 44 %

20%

Wheat 8%

Wheat bran 3%

Wheat middlings 2%

All Additives 9%

Tilapia Protein Feed Rations •   As tilapia are herbivorous, there are several viable

plant protein options that can be used in tilapia feed. •   Experiments have been conducted testing

various alternatives such as algae, insect meals and plant fodder that is readily available depending on location.

•   For example, in Mexico wheat is used on talipia feed rations as it is a readily available and an abundant crop.

•   Other locally sourced feeds may include pig manure or other natural fertilizers that promote the growth of algae and other organisms that tilapia consume.

•   Tilapia require minimal fish meals and oils in their diet for optimal development.


Commercial feed rations for shrimp

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•   High-quality shrimp feed is essential as these organisms have highly sensitive response systems.

–   For this reason, most all shrimp production uses commercial feed rations.

–   As any fluctuation is the amount of soybean meal used to feed shrimp can be disruptive to nutrient absorption in the digestive tract and cause loss in the shrimp population, typically there is not much variation in the use of soybean meal.

Commercial shrimp feed consists of 24% soybean meal (incl. soy protein concentrate).

Whey powder mealdr. 1%

Corn 5%

Corn glutenmeal 5%

Fish meal; CP 10%

Fish meal; Low CP 5%

Fish oil 3%

Meat meal 3%

Rice 5%

Soybean Meal, CF<5-‐7 %; CP > 44 %

19%

Soy Protein Conc 5%

Wheat 13%

Wheat glutenmeal 10%

Wheat middlings 2%

Wheypowder 2%

All addi/ves (fats+carb+min+vit)

12%

Shrimp Feed Rations


Protein meal - historical prices

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Fish meal prices are expected to continue rising as restrictions on wild catch remain in place and constrains the total fishmeal supply.

Source: The Jacobsen; HighQuest Analysis

•   Soybean meal prices are approximately 30% of the FOB cost of fish meal; $410 / MT for soybean meal compared to $1420 / MT for fish meal.

•   The price of fish meal has been extremely volatile over the past 3 - 4 years, ranging between $900 - $1900/ton due to shrinking stocks.

•   Fish meal prices will continue rising as fishing bans are implemented and wild fish populations continue depleting due to over fishing.

•   Current fish meal stocks cannot support the growing aquaculture industry and it is unlikely that new sources of fishmeal will be discovered.

•   Advances in developing new amino acid profiles for soybean meal will determine whether soybean meal will be able to completely subsititute for fish meal as a feed ingredient in aquaculture production.

Fish Meal vs. Soybean Meal Prices

SBM: C. Illinois

Corn Gluten Meal

Fish Meal: Peru

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Alternative protein meals in aquaculture feed

Alternative feeds for both carnivorous and herbivorous fish are being explored based on the recent increases in feed ingredient prices, particularly soybean meal and fish meal. •  Herbivorous feeds substitutes for tilapia include algae, paraphytin and other grains or oilseed meals including copra,

rapeseed, jatropha. –  Jatropha is being researched heavily to be made commercially available, however soybean meal currently

has a better nutritional profile and has not acted as a full substitute in most aqua feeds. –  Algae research is being conducted based on ideal nutrition profiles along with how to make the algae

commercially available. There are algal oils currently being used in the human food market that contain Omega-3’s, however these oils are not economically efficient to extract and therefore are mainly being used in the human food market where retail prices for the products are much higher than fish feeds.

•  Alternative feeds for carnivorous species include: –  Copepods can be grown on substrates such as woodchips while also acting as a filtration system, thus this is

potentially a low cost way of providing feed (this is not yet a commercial viable option but is being researched as such).

–  Insect meal is not commercially available, but could provide a high quality nutrition source for a wider variety of amino acids than vegetable proteins provide.

–  Fish by-products include fish heads, tails, entrails, etc. Fish by-products are difficult to use on a large scale as they require expensive container shipment. Fish meal prices would have to continue to rise to make this worthy of investment. In Alaska alone there are 1MMT of fish byproducts produced per year. This is the entire fish meal demand of US fish farm operations and could feed one billion fish. However, the cost to gather and process fish by-products is not competitive with wild caught fish meal prices.

Specialty soybeans and soy isolates will increasingly replace fish meal and other animal proteins.

Informed decision making for global agricultural investing

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Managing Director HighQuest Partners, LLC

314-994-3282

[email protected] www.highquestpartners.com

1005 North Warson Road, Suite 226 – St. Louis, Missouri 63124 – USA (314) 994-3282 | www.highquestpartners.com

Philippe de Lapérouse - Global Aquaculture Alliance · 2019-09-19 · Philippe de Lapérouse...

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Transcript of Philippe de Lapérouse - Global Aquaculture Alliance · 2019-09-19 · Philippe de Lapérouse...