Philippe de Lapérouse Managing Director HighQuest Partners LLC · Total global agriculture market...

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Les Perspectives 2014Le 8 avril 2014Boucherville, Québec

Key Fundamentals Driving Investor Interest in Global Agriculture

Philippe de LapérouseManaging DirectorHighQuest Partners LLC

Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2014 by HighQuest Partners LLC. All rights reserved.

1. HighQuest Partners + Soyatech

2. Size of global ag market

3. Fundamental drivers

4. Expected range of returns

5. Summary

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HighQuest + Soyatech + Global AgInvestingHighQuest + Soyatech + Global AgInvesting

Strategic advisor in global food, agribusiness and biofuels

Media and conferences forthe agricultural industry

The world's leading resource for events, research, and insight into the global agricultural investment sector



HighQuest supports informed decision‐making for strategic and financial investors across global agriculture

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Upcoming eventsUpcoming events

Global AgInvesting 2014April 28‐30 | New York

Global AgInvesting Asia 2013September 23‐25 | Singapore

Global AgInvesting Europe 2014Fdecember 1‐3 | London

Global AgInvesting Middle East 2015February | TBC

www.globalaginvesting.com



February 9‐10, 2015 / Barcelona, Spain

Oilseed & Grain Trade SummitOctober 7‐9, 2014 / New Orleans

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5. Summary

Global agriculture is broad and large(3rd largest after currency and energy markets) and experiencing steady growth(4 ‐ 5%)Global agriculture is broad and large(3rd largest after currency and energy markets) and experiencing steady growth(4 ‐ 5%)


Total global agriculture market value is estimated at more than $6.4 trillion (including the food & beverage sector), representing over 8.5% of the world’s economic activity in 2010.

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Note: Illustrative• 1980‐1999 uses 2000 pricing• 2011‐2020 uses 2010 pricing

Agricultural commodities trade is forecast to exceed 520 million metric tons in next ten years due to rising demand in China, India,Southeast Asia and Middle East.

Wheat

Corn

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

SugarPalm Oil

RapeseedSoybean Oil

Rapeseed MealRapeseed Oil

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

(1000MT)

Global Trade Volume by Crop, 1980‐2020F

Wheat

Corn

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Sugar

Soybean Oil

Rapeseed Oil

Rapeseed Meal

‐

50 000 000

100 000 000

150 000 000

200 000 000

250 000 000

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

(000 USD

)

Total Export Value, 1980‐2020F

RapeseedPalm Oil

Source: USDA statistics and baseline projection, CME

Global agricultural trade volume projected to increase 2.7% (CAGR) through 2020Global agricultural trade volume projected to increase 2.7% (CAGR) through 2020

9Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2014 by HighQuest Partners LLC. All rights reserved.

Input

• Seed;• Fertilizer;• Pesticide; • Herbicide• Farm

equipment• Energy

Production

• Growers; • Cooperatives

Storage Handling/Trading

Storage Handling/Trading

• Grain elevators;

• Brokers and traders

Transportation& Logistics

• Ocean;• Barge;• Rail;• Truck

Processing

• Primary processing;

• Food and feed ingredients

End users

• Food• Feed• Biofuels• Industrial

A complex market structure which requires appreciation for how margins are shared amongst players at different points along the supply chain.

Agriculture value chain – “conceptually simple and yet challenging for efficient execution”Agriculture value chain – “conceptually simple and yet challenging for efficient execution”


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Range of investment opportunities in the ag sectorRange of investment opportunities in the ag sector


Real Assets • Farmland• Infrastructure

Private Equity • Upstream

• inputs(seed, chemicals, fertilizer, technology services, capital goods)• Downstream

• storage and logistics• value added processing of ingredients• food/feed/industrial processing

Venture Capital • Biotech• Enabling technologies (precision ag) Water theme investments Liquid Assets

• Public equities• Commodity index funds

Seed

Ag chemicals & fertilizer

Ag machinery

Ag production

Food& beverage

Animal feed

Meat & aquaculture

Biofuels

2010 market value (est.) 2015 market value (est.) Estimated CAGR 2010‐2015

Ag investment

Ag insurance

$37 billion

$134 billion

$56.1 billion

$ 1.3 trillion

$3.84 trillion

$263 billion

$672 billion

$56.4 billion

$20 billion

$23 billion

$47 billion

$196 billion

$80.5 billion

$1.46 trillion

$4.6 trillion

$313 billion

$815 billion

$80 billion

$40 billion

$66.6 billion

3.5%

6.5%

7.5%

2.4%

3.7%

3.5%

3.9%

7.2%

15%

20%

Examples of broad range of activities in the global agricultural sector Examples of broad range of activities in the global agricultural sector

12Proprietary information – not for distribution. Copyright © 2014 by HighQuest Partners LLC. All rights reserved.

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$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

Machinery an

d Equipment (M

illion USD

)

Inputs (M

illion USD

)

Farm Expenditures1990‐2011

Farm Origin Inputs Manufactured Inputs Machinery and Equipment

Source: USDA ERS

Farm Origin Inputs include seed, feed, and livestock and poultry purchased.

Manufactured Inputs include energy, fertilizers, and pesticides.

US farm expenditures have been trending upward since 1990






5. Summary

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Key issues driving farmland valuesKey issues driving farmland values


Population growth and increase in GDP• World population 9 billion in 2050 • Increased demand in developing markets, particularly Asia, SE Asia and

North Africa• Shift in diets from grain to animal protein (Bennett’s law)

Increasing urbanization • Pressure on available arable land for crop production• Increasing reliance on processed foods

Constraints on supply• Access to water• Climate change• Linkage to energy markets(biofuel mandates) • Slowdown in yield increases

Human capital• Generational transfer in both developed and developing markets• Lack of capacity building in developing markets


Demographic trend a major driver

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Urbanization trend increasing demand for food commodities


Dramactic shift in developing country populations from rural to urbanhas major implications for increased trade in commodities

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2050

Global Middle Class Consumption2000‐2025

Others

India

China

Japan

US

EU

Source: OECD

Middle class consumption in China and India continues to fuel growing demand for commodities

Commodity boom driven by shift of poor into the middle classCommodity boom driven by shift of poor into the middle class


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0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

Cubic KM

Projected Change in Water Withdrawals

2000

2050

Source: OECD

‐14%

+127%

+63%

+406%+144%

Agriculture will have to compete for access to water

Renewables are here to stay but at what levels? Renewables are here to stay but at what levels?


Fuel Annual Growth Rates (2000‐2035)Liquids 0.9%

Natural gas 1.3%

Coal 1.4%

Nuclear 1.6%

Renewables 2.0%

Overall 1.3%

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It would appear that climate change is realIt would appear that climate change is real



‐8

‐6

‐4

‐2

0

2

4

6

1900

1903

1906

1909

1912

1915

1918

1921

1924

1927

1930

1933

1936

1939

1942

1945

1948

1951

1954

1957

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

U.S. Annual Palmer Drought Severity Index1900‐2013

Source: NOAA

Wet Sp

ell

Dry Sp

ell

While frequency of severe droughts is not new, the stakes now are much higher

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Potential agricultural yield decreases due to climate change by 2050Potential agricultural yield decreases due to climate change by 2050


Source: C. Muller (2010) „Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Yields‟, background note to the “World Development Report 2010.”

Impact of climate change on food export prices in 2030 Impact of climate change on food export prices in 2030


Source: D. Willenbockel – “Exploring Food Price Scenarios Towards 2030 with a Global Multi‐Region Model,” Oxfam research report (2011).

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Rising demand as per capita acreage declines Rising demand as per capita acreage declines


Declining yield gains in major crops – can trend be reversed? Declining yield gains in major crops – can trend be reversed?


0

0,01

0,02

0,03

0,04

0,05Soybeans

-1%

1%

3%

5% Corn

-1%

1%

3%

5%Rice

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

Wheat

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Global Yields for 4 Major CropsHistorical and Projected

(MT / ha) Corn

Rice

Wheat

Soy

Source: USDA; HighQuest Analysis

Trailing 10-Year Yield Improvement

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New pricing dynamic created by biofuels mandatesNew pricing dynamic created by biofuels mandates


Pricing ‐ cornPricing ‐ corn


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Prices – soybeans and cornPrices – soybeans and corn


Demand for commodities driven by rapid GDP/capita growth in developing and emerging markets Demand for commodities driven by rapid GDP/capita growth in developing and emerging markets


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Animal protein consumption highly correlated with per capita GDPAnimal protein consumption highly correlated with per capita GDP


Animal Protein Consumption(kg) Per Capita vs. GDP Per Capita(PPP basis) ‐ 2010

R² = 0,6709

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

- 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000

Consumption per capita (kg)

GDP per capita(PPP)

Australia

USA

Japan

UAE

S. Korea Norway

New Zealand

China

China – meal demand forecast to increase 60%China – meal demand forecast to increase 60%


Over the past 15 years, meal consumption in China has had a 99% correlation with GDP per capita. Based on this correlation and OECD projections for future GDP growth in China, HighQuest projects that Chinese meal consumption will increase by 60% over the next decade (50 to 80 million MT).

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Impact of exports to China and ethanol production on US farmland use Impact of exports to China and ethanol production on US farmland use


Projected global demand by 2020Projected global demand by 2020


-

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000

3 000 000

3 500 000

Sunflowerseed

Cotton

Peanut

Sorghum

Rapeseed

Barley

Soy

Rice

Wheat

Corn

Source: USDA; HighQuest Analysis

Global Production of 10 Major Crops (Historical1980‐2010; Projected 2011‐2020; 000 MTs)

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Farmland required to supply projected demandFarmland required to supply projected demand


Conservatively, 65‐85 million net incremental hectares will be required.

Availability and location of available global land reservesAvailability and location of available global land reserves


WHILE LAND IS AVAILABLE FOR PLANTING, MUCH OF IT IS NOT EASILY ACCESSIBLE

Net Reserves

547 18%

Forest804 26%

Protected 204 Urban

58 2%

Current Arable141147%

Potential Rainfed Cropland (3,024 million hectares)

Africa256 47%

Latin America

152 28%

Asia87

16%

North America

30 5%

Oceana18 3%

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Net Reserves By Region(547 million hectares)

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Brazil – a key playerBrazil – a key player


22,5

12,8

11,8

8,1

9,4

64,6

SouthAmerica

FSU‐12 SubSaharanAfrica

South Asia Row Total

New Cropland By Region – Last Decade(2000‐2010 – Harvested Ha for 10 major crops)

Historical shift of price equilibrium in Brazil Historical shift of price equilibrium in Brazil


1960s

1980s

2000s

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2,24%

1,53%

2,60%

2,42%

1,78%

3,37%

1,96%

1,43%

0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 3,5% 4,0%

Russian Federation

Southeast Asia

China

Brazil

Latin America

Sub‐Saharan Africa

Developing Countries

Developed Countries

Total Factor Productivity Growth of AgricultureAverage Change in Growth Rates (1961‐2009)

Source: OECD, FAO

Opportunities for increasing productivity also located in emerging markets

5 key risk factors5 key risk factors


Step‐change improvement in yields Launch of drought resistance varieties

China SE Asia North Africa/Middle East

On the horizon biofuels; protein meal; fat

Double‐edged sword Inverts the supply curve

Food security Export bans / trade embargoes GMO acceptance Renewable Fuels

1. Seed Technology

2. Slower Growth

3. Algae or Microorganisms

4. Infrastructure/Food Wastage

5. Government and Trade Policy

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5. Summary

US farmland returns vs. other major originsUS farmland returns vs. other major origins


*This comparison is based on results from the different harvest periods in North and South America.

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Historical returns – 100‐year Illinois farmland appreciationHistorical returns – 100‐year Illinois farmland appreciation


Thesis for farmland investment Thesis for farmland investment


1. Fundamentals a) Supply < Demand

Increase in supply slower than increase in demand b) Demand Rationing

High & volatile pricesPrice signal for capacity expansionNew demand creation – biofuels and industrial uses

c) Higher Land Values......and potentially attractive economics throughout the sector resulting from application of technology and efficient agronomic practices which will generate higher cash rents per unit of land which will be capitalized into the value of the land.

2. Inflation & currency protection

3. Uncorrelated returns

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Returns on U.S. farmland compared to other assetsReturns on U.S. farmland compared to other assets


Historical correlation vs. inflation and other asset classesHistorical correlation vs. inflation and other asset classes


1NCREIF Farmland Index is a quarterly time series composite return measure of investment performance of a large pool of agricultural properties acquired in the private market for investment purposes only.

2R measures the correlation between the price movements of two asset classes.

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Farmland values low relative to capitalized valueFarmland values low relative to capitalized value







5. Summary

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Expectations of returns for farmland investment by regionExpectations of returns for farmland investment by region


North AmericaRisk: Low

Return: LowVolatility: Low

Return Expectations:

8‐12%

South AmericaRisk: Medium

Return: MediumVolatility: Medium


12‐20%

Western EuropeRisk: Low



8‐12%

AfricaRisk: High

Return: HighVolatility: High


20‐30%

Eastern EuropeRisk: Medium

Return: MediumVolatility: Medium


12‐14%

Former Soviet Union

Risk: HighReturn: HighVolatility: High


15‐25%

Former Soviet Union

Risk: HighReturn: HighVolatility: High


15‐25%

Australia & New ZealandRisk: Low



9‐16%

Australia & New ZealandRisk: Low



9‐16%

Major issues by regionMajor issues by region


Region Land Control

Scale Fragmentation Ownership Structure

Business Model

US & Canada free title medium medium fund, corporate or

direct

cash leases or direct operating

Australia & New Zealand

free title large low fund or corporate

integrated ‐crops/grazing

WesternEurope

free title small high direct direct operating

South America

free title large low fund or direct direct operating

EasternEurope

free title medium medium fund or direct direct operating

FSU evolving to free title

large low fund direct operating

Africa long‐term land concessions

large low corporate direct operating

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Returns and secular trendsReturns and secular trends


1. Historical 8% ‐12% real returns (US) likely scenario for the next decade Farmland prices in US currently experiencing stabilization Higher in less mature markets(12 – 30% ‐ private equity returns)

2. Supply response which historically had lagged demand has been picking up

3. New pricing paradigm for crops higher(compared to historical mean + more volatile) though prices have retrenched from recent highs Long run: price signal will be required to add capacity

4. Farmland is ultimately the limiting factor economic rents are capitalized into the value of farmland

Example of sub‐allocation framework for an ag portfolio Example of sub‐allocation framework for an ag portfolio


Geography

Operational / Development

Type of Asset

• Australia• South America• Eastern Europe• Russia• Asia• Africa

• Land ownership (free title) • Risk‐ sharing lease structures• Farm management• Land development /conversion• Upstream or downstream value chain investment • Permanent crops

• Dairy• Land‐based animal protein production• Aquaculture

Core8-12%

• North America• Row crop Land• Cash lease

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Informed decision making for global agricultural investing

Philippe de Lapérouse

Managing DirectorHighQuest Partners, LLC

314‐994‐3282

[email protected]

1005 North Warson Road, Suite 226 – St. Louis, Missouri 63124 – USA

(314) 994‐3282 | www.highquestpartners.com

Philippe de Lapérouse Managing Director HighQuest Partners LLC · Total global agriculture market...

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