Phase 6 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model Final Calibration - BHATT - MWCC...Gopal Bhatt1 and Gary...
Transcript of Phase 6 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model Final Calibration - BHATT - MWCC...Gopal Bhatt1 and Gary...
Gopal Bhatt1 and Gary Shenk2
1 Penn State, 2 USGS
11/28/2017
Phase 6 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model – Final Calibration
Modeling Workgroup Conference Call – November 2017
Presentation outline
Review of final re-calibration State-basin summary of delivered loads
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Final re-calibration
A detailed presentation on the updates included in the final re-calibration was made in the October modeling workgroup quarterly meeting [1].
The updates include: Partnership review comments for both inputs and model. USGS-SPARROW Nitrogen land to water delivery variance factors
were excluded. Flow weighted observations were used. Chesapeake floodplain network (CFN) observations (not
regressions) were used for estimating stream loads. Organic scour processes were added.
The post auto-calibration phase included further refinements of the model performance, calibration of time-variable Conowingo infill, and parametrization of ungagedriver segments.
[1] https://www.chesapeakebay.net/channel_files/24721/20171017_-_bhatt_-_cbp_-_october_recalibraion_2.pdf 3
Model performance across spatial scalesaverage annual loads at WRTDS sites
NITROGENPHASE 5
30 ESTIMATOR sites(with regional factors)
51E3 1E4 1E5 1E6 1E7 1E8 1E9
1E3
1E4
1E
5
1E6
1E7
1
E8
1E9
NSE 0.994
Log NSE 0.981 Susquehanna at Conowingo, MD27086 sq. miles
NW Branch Anacostia River near Hyattsville, MD
52 sq. miles
NITROGENPHASE 6
77 WRTDS sites
61E3 1E4 1E5 1E6 1E7 1E8 1E9
1E3
1E4
1E
5
1E6
1E7
1
E8
1E9
NSE 0.998
Log NSE 0.996
S F Quantico Creek near Independent Hill, VA
7.4 sq. miles
Susquehanna at Conowingo, MD27086 sq. miles
PHOSPHORUSPHASE 5
71E3 1E4 1E5 1E6 1E7 1E8
1E3
1
E4
1E
5
1E6
1E7
1
E8
30 ESTIMATOR sites(with regional factors)
NSE 0.966
Log NSE 0.962
PHOSPHORUSPHASE 6
81E3 1E4 1E5 1E6 1E7 1E8
1E3
1
E4
1E
5
1E6
1E7
1
E8
61 WRTDS sites
NSE 0.997
Log NSE 0.989
SEDIMENTPHASE 5
9
1E4 1E5 1E6 1E7 1E8 1E9 1E10 1E11
30 ESTIMATOR basins
1E4
1E5
1E6
1
E7
1
E8
1
E9
1
E10
1
E11
NSE 0.323
Log NSE 0.732
SEDIMENTPHASE 6
10
1E4 1E5 1E6 1E7 1E8 1E9 1E10 1E11
60 WRTDS basins
1E4
1E5
1E6
1
E7
1
E8
1
E9
1
E10
1
E11
NSE 0.987
Log NSE 0.990
Model performance in resolving heterogeneityaverage annual per acre loads at WRTDS sites
Review of geographic efficiencies
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WRTDS and simulated per acre loads are compared.
Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency was used to quantify the predictive power of the model across the watershed.
An efficiency of 1 would indicate a perfect match in loads for all river basins (where WRTDS estimates are available).
Phase 5 – geographic efficiencies
13WRTDS Per Acre Load
Sim
ulat
ed P
er A
cre
Load
Higher NSE indicates better model performance.
Phase 6 – geographic efficiencies
14WRTDS Per Acre Load
Sim
ulat
ed P
er A
cre
Load
Summary of geographic efficiencies
Constituents Phase 5 Phase 6
Nitrate 0.8284 0.9547
Nitrogen 0.8704 0.9747
Phosphorus 0.6321 0.9565
Sediment -0.0770 0.9649
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Higher NSE indicates better model performance.
Temporal/seasonal model performancethe correlation of simulated and WRTDS monthly loads
Correlation of monthly loads: total nitrogen
17Higher correlation coefficient indicates better model performance.
Correlation of monthly loads: total phosphorus
18Higher correlation coefficient indicates better model performance.
Correlation of monthly loads: sediment
19Higher correlation coefficient indicates better model performance.
Model performance in loading estuarine modelaverage annual loads at RIM sites
RIM loads: total nitrogen
assuming +/- 10% uncertainty in WRTDS estimates21
BASIN Phase 6 June Draft Phase 5SUSQ -06% -03% -01%POTO -04% -09% -22%JAME -03% -02% -07%RAPP -01% -07% -10%APPO -01% -07% -02%PAMU -01% 00% 06%MATT 04% 07% -06%PATU 04% 05% 19%CHOP -02% 08% -13%
RIM loads: total phosphorus
assuming +/- 15% uncertainty in WRTDS estimates22
BASIN Phase 6 June Draft Phase 5SUSQ 01% 07% 10%POTO 01% -01% -14%JAME -01% 10% -25%RAPP -01% 06% 02%APPO 02% 13% 04%PAMU 03% 12% 07%MATT 01% -13% 04%PATU 00% 08% -18%CHOP -12% 13% 22%
RIM loads: sediment
assuming +/- 15% uncertainty in WRTDS estimates23
BASIN Phase 6 June Draft Phase 5SUSQ 07% -11% 01%POTO 03% -29% -45%JAME 01% -13% -58%RAPP 00% 26% -29%APPO 14% 36% 75%PAMU 02% 40% 10%MATT -01% 90% 57%PATU 12% 53% 22%CHOP 03% 171% 71%
State-basin loads:
Review of Phase 5 and Phase 6 state-basin loads delivery to the Bay (1991-2000) –
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NITROGENCalibration
25Average annual delivery for 1991-2000
Phase 5: Nitrogen – MD Potomac
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Phase 6: Nitrogen – MD Potomac
PHOSPHORUSCalibration
28Average annual delivery for 1991-2000
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Phase 5: Phosphorus – MD Potomac
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Phase 6: Phosphorus – MD Potomac
Summary and Conclusions
Phase 6 Watershed Model was re-calibrated to incorporate final partnership inputs and review comments. The model performed quite well for several key
performance evaluation metrics. The corresponding state-basin summary of loads were
shown.Work is needed to document several aspects of model
development, calibration, and its application.
Calibration related information, such as calibration figures, comparison with WRTDS loads, are available at ftp://ftp.chesapeakebay.net/Modeling/Phase6/Phase_6_201710/Watershed_Model/
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Appendices
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NITRATEPHASE 5
16 ESTIMATOR basins
331E3 1E4 1E5 1E6 1E7 1E8 1E9
1E3
1E4
1E
5
1
E6
1E7
1E8
1E
9
NSE 0.900
Log NSE 0.965
NITRATEJUNE DRAFT
77 WRTDS Stations
341E3 1E4 1E5 1E6 1E7 1E8 1E9
1E3
1E4
1E
5
1
E6
1E7
1E8
1E
9
NSE 0.994
Log NSE 0.971
NITRATEPHASE 6
77 WRTDS Stations
351E3 1E4 1E5 1E6 1E7 1E8 1E9
1E3
1E4
1E
5
1
E6
1E7
1E8
1E
9
NSE 0.996
Log NSE 0.992
DISSOLVED PHOSPHATEPHASE 5
361E2 1E3 1E4 1E5 1E6 1E7 1E8
1E2
1E
3
1E4
1
E5
1E6
1
E7
1E8
61 WRTDS Stations
NSE -3.195
Log NSE 0.540
JUNE DRAFT
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61 WRTDS Stations
DISSOLVED PHOSPHATE
1E2 1E3 1E4 1E5 1E6 1E7 1E8
1E2
1E
3
1E4
1
E5
1E6
1
E7
1E8
NSE 0.892
Log NSE 0.974
PHASE 6
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61 WRTDS Stations
DISSOLVED PHOSPHATE
1E2 1E3 1E4 1E5 1E6 1E7 1E8
1E2
1E
3
1E4
1
E5
1E6
1
E7
1E8
NSE 0.871
Log NSE 0.981
Monthly loads: nitrate
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Monthly loads: dissolved phosphate
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State – basin loads: Nitrogen (1991-2000)
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
State – basin loads: Phosphorus (1991-2000)
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
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