Chesapeake Bay Program Watershed Model 101
description
Transcript of Chesapeake Bay Program Watershed Model 101
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Chesapeake Bay ProgramWatershed Model
101
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Role of Models
Modeling
Research Monitoring
Management
Power
ClarityWhat is the Concentration?What are the filtering rates?Where are the streams?
What is the environmentaleffect of any particularmanagement scheme?
How do we balance manydifferent interests?
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
CBP Modeling Structure
Watershed Model
Chesapeake Bay Estuary Model Package
Regional Acid Deposition Model
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Topics
• Description of the Watershed Model
• Calibration
• Data
• Use in Management
• Description of the Watershed Model
• CalibrationCalibration
• DataData
• Use in ManagementUse in Management
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Purposes of the Watershed Model
1. Accurately deliver loads to the WaterQuality Model
2. Equitably account for all load sources
3. Assess changes due to management
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Requirements for WSM
• Daily flow, nutrient, and sediment load• Accurately simulate any major land use• Responsive to
Nutrient input to land Structural BMPs Changes in stream chemistry Meteorology
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
HSPF• Hourly time step• Heavily parameterized
sensitive to many inputs very flexible
• Open Source, Free• Supported by USGS and EPA• Wide usage
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
HSPF
Lumped parameterPhysically-based models
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
HSPF - lumped model
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Land Simulation --1 Acre
Ground Water
SurfaceInterflow Lower Zone
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Water simulation - physically based
Ground Water
Surface
Interflow
Lower Zone
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Precipitation or percolation
Percolation
Evapotranspiration
RO
(time series)
f(soil properties, slope, temp)
f(time series, land properties)
f(soil properties, slope, temp)
Water simulation - physically based
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Nutrient and Sediment Simulation
Meteorology Precipitation
Runoff andGroundwater
LandMorphology
NitrogenCycle
SedimentExport
PhosphorusCycle
Nutrient Inputs
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Nutrient and Sediment Simulation
NitrogenCycle
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Trees
Roots Leaves
ParticulateRefractoryOrganic N
ParticulateLabile
Organic N
SolutionAmmonia
Nitrate
SolutionLabile
Organic N
AdsorbedAmmonia
SolutionRefractoryOrganic N
Nitrogen Cycle in Watershed Model ForestA
tmos
pher
ic
Dep
ositi
onD
enitr
ifica
tion
Export
Export Export ExportExport Export Export
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Model Nutrient BalanceAtmosphericDeposition
DenitrificationVolatilization
Export to Streams
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Land Uses Modeled
Forest
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Model Nutrient BalanceAtmosphericDeposition,
other sources
DenitrificationVolatilization
Export to Streams
Uptake bygrasses
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Land Uses Modeled
Pervious Urban, Impervious Urban
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Model Nutrient BalanceAtmosphericdeposition,
Manure,
Fertilizer
DenitrificationVolatilization
Export to Streams
Uptake byCrops
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Land Uses Modeled
High Till, Low Till, Hay, Pasture
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Land-Water Connection
X 3000 acres
X 400 acres
X 900 acres
X 100 acresX 200 acres X 300 acres
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
River Simulation
River 3
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
N River Simulation
Algae
ORGN
NO3
}
Sediment
NH3
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
River Simulation
River 1
River 2 River 3
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Watershed Model
• 64,000 square miles• Nine land uses• 94 segments
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Topics
• Description of the Watershed Model
• Calibration
• Data
• Use in Management
• Description of the Watershed ModelDescription of the Watershed Model
• Calibration
• DataData
• Use in ManagementUse in Management
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
2 points of calibration
Land Surface
RainRiver Reach
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Calibration• Exports from land
Literature values Analysis of input
• River input to tidal waters Data at all major inputs Upstream points
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Figure 12. Crop Nitrogen
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Beaulac & Reckhow Sparrow Sweeney & Chang CBP Model
lb/a
c/ye
ar
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Figure 13. Crop Phosphorus
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Beaulac & Reckhow Sweeney & Chang model
lb/a
c/ye
ar
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Figure 23. Hay Nitrogen
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Beaulac & Reckhow model
lb/a
c/ye
ar
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Figure 24. Hay Phosphorus
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Beaulac & Reckhow model
lb/a
c/ye
ar
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Figure 28. Pasture TN Export vs TN applications
y = 0.0791x + 3.5782R2 = 0.9221
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
applications lb/ac/year
tota
l nitr
ogen
exp
ort l
b/ac
/yr
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
2 points of calibration
Land Surface
RainRiver Reach
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Calibration Reviews• Modeling Subcommittee• Tributary Strategy Work Group• Model Evaluation Group
____________________________________________________________________________CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED MODEL
APPLICATION AND CALCULATION OF NUTRIENTAND SEDIMENT LOADINGS
Appendix E: Land Use and Linkages to the Airshed and Estuarine Models____________________________________________________________________________
A Report of theChesapeake Bay ProgramNutrient Subcommittee
Annapolis, MDAugust 1998
Printed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the Chesapeake Bay Program
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Topics
• Description of the Watershed Model
• Calibration
• Data
• Use in Management
• Description of the Watershed ModelDescription of the Watershed Model
• CalibrationCalibration
• Data
• Use in ManagementUse in Management
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Types of Input Data
• Point sources• Land use• Nutrient loads to land• Management Actions
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Point Sources
• Facility by facility list• Monthly data where available• Years 1984 - 1999• Estimates for future scenarios
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Point Source Info• Point Source
Workgroup representation from
all states + DC• Documented on the
modeling subcommittee web site
____________________________________________________________________________CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED MODEL
APPLICATION AND CALCULATION OF NUTRIENTAND SEDIMENT LOADINGS
Appendix F: Point Source Loadings____________________________________________________________________________
A Report of theChesapeake Bay ProgramNutrient Subcommittee
Annapolis, MDAugust 1998
Printed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the Chesapeake Bay Program
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Land Use
}EMAPGIRAS
ForestImpervious Urban
Pervious UrbanFarms
AgriculturalCensus,CTIC
} CropHay
PastureMixed Open
Sources
Outputs
}Population
Estimations,Projections
Land UseData Base
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Land Use
• Tributary Strategy Workgroup representation from
all states + DC• Documented on the
modeling subcommittee web site
____________________________________________________________________________CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED MODEL
APPLICATION AND CALCULATION OF NUTRIENTAND SEDIMENT LOADINGS
Appendix E: Land Use and Linkages to the Airshed and Estuarine Models____________________________________________________________________________
A Report of theChesapeake Bay ProgramNutrient Subcommittee
Annapolis, MDAugust 1998
Printed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the Chesapeake Bay Program
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Nutrient Loads to Land
• Atmospheric Deposition• Fertilizer• Manure
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Atmospheric Deposition
• Use national data source (NADP)
• Use Airshed model to determine wet deposition vs dry deposition
• Use Airshed model to estimate change due to management actions
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
AtmosphericDeposition
Nitrogen Atmospheric Deposition11.042 - 13.13910.288 - 11.0429.966 - 10.2889.662 - 9.9669.351 - 9.6629.17 - 9.351
____________________________________________________________________________CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED MODEL
APPLICATION AND CALCULATION OF NUTRIENTAND SEDIMENT LOADINGS
Appendix D: - Precipitation & Meteorological Data Development & Atmospheric Deposition____________________________________________________________________________
A Report of theChesapeake Bay ProgramNutrient Subcommittee
Annapolis, MDAugust 1998
Printed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the Chesapeake Bay Program
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Manure
• Use Agriculture Census to get animal numbers by type
• Use assumptions about manure production and applications
• Get monthly applications by crop type
• Overseen by Tributary Strategy Work Group
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Manure Data ModelPasture
Beef
Uncollected
Collected
Spring/FallApplication
Daily Application
Crop
Enclosure
Barnyard
Volatilization
Volatilization
Daily Application
Storage
VolatilizationVolatilization
Volatilization
Runoff Runoff
DairySwineLayersBroilersTurkeys
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Fertilizer
• Data From State Agriculture Agencies
• Modified for nutrient management
• Overseen by Modeling Subcommittee and Tributary Strategy Workgroup
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Find Nutrient Management
Mineral
CropNeed
AtDep
Fertilizer
Manure
30% CropNeed
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Find Nutrient Management
Mineral
CropNeed
AtDep
Fertilizer
Manure
30% CropNeed
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Excess Manure
Mineral
CropNeedAtDep
Fertilizer
Manure30% Crop
Need
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Manure
Mineral
AtDepCropNeed
30% CropNeed
Excess Manure
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Manure
Mineral
AtDepCropNeed
30% CropNeed
Manureto move
Excess Manure
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Manure and Fertilizer• Trib Strategy
Workgroup representation from
all states + DC• Documented on the
modeling subcommittee web site
____________________________________________________________________________CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED MODEL
APPLICATION AND CALCULATION OF NUTRIENTAND SEDIMENT LOADINGS
Appendix C: Agricultural Nutrient Loads____________________________________________________________________________
A Report of theChesapeake Bay ProgramNutrient Subcommittee
Annapolis, MDAugust 1998
Printed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the Chesapeake Bay Program
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Topics
• Description of the Watershed Model
• Calibration
• Data
• Use in Management
• Description of the Watershed ModelDescription of the Watershed Model
• CalibrationCalibration
• DataData
• Use in Management
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Scenario Method
• Run 1985 - 1994 hydrology with land use, land management, and point sources held constant
• What are the expected annual loads if the state of management is Trib Strat?
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Total Nitrogen Delivered to Tidal Potomac
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1985 2000 Trib Strat LOCT 2010 Pristine
Mill
ion
lb/y
ear
DCPAWVMDVA
DRAFT
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
CBP Modeling Structure
Watershed Model
Chesapeake Bay Estuary Model Package
Hydrodynamic Model
Regional Acid Deposition Model
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
`
Average Water Claritywith watershed management
at 1985 levels
DRAFT
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Average Water Claritywith watershed management
at Limit of CurrentTechnology
DRAFT
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Phase 5
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Collaborators• CBP
EPA CRC UMCES NRCS all state agencies
• USGS MD and VA
• U of MD.
• MDE• ICPRB• DCR
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Major Partners
MDE/DCR TSWG Mod SCICPRB
USGS CBP Mod &Nut Teams
Stakeholder and Technical Input
TMDLneeds
PotomacStake-holdercoordination
CB stake-holder andtechnicalinformation
Technicalguidance
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
The right size forsegmentation
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
HSPF - lumped modelWhat is a reasonable size for lumping?
• Too big meaningful differences are
missed
• Too small can’t get the data can’t run the model
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Phase 5 land segmentation
• Most counties are completely within a hydrogeomorphic region
• BMP and Crop data are not known on a finer scale in most cases
• Near the limit of computing capacity
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
What is a reasonable size for lumping?
• Too big meaningful differences are
missed• Too small
can’t get the data can’t run the model
River Simulation
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Phase 5 RiverSegmentation
• Greater than 100 cfsor
• Has a flow gage
• Near the limit of meaningful data
• Consistent criterion
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Putting the land andriver together
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Land-Water Connection
X 3000 acres
X 400 acres
X 900 acres
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Land-Water Connection
X 3000 acres
X 400 acres
X 900 acres
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
E T M Land Use
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
Start of simulation End of simulation
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
E T M Land Use
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
Start o f simulation End of simulation
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
E T MLand Use
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
Start o f simulation End o f simulation
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
METData
ATDEPData
Land NPSExport
E T M
Final Output
NutrientApplication
Database
PSData
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
E T M
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
External Transfer Module
ManagementPractices
Time Series
Land UseTime Series
Time Series from Land Simulation
Time Series to River
Simulation
E T M
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
P5.D1 - Time varying calculation
ManagementPractices
Land UseTime Series 1985 reference
1990 calibration2000 progress
1985 reference1992 start of BMP implementation2000 progress
E T M
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
E T M BMPs
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
Start of simulation End of simulation
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
E T M Land Use
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
Start of simulation End of simulation
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Other ETM Opportunities
• Seasonality• Urban flow considerations• Performance under extreme weather • Design life consideration• Ability to add any new BMP• Subgrid effects
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Other p5 changes
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Easier Operation
• Ability to split out small watersheds for simulation
• Ability to run partial scenarios• User-Friendly GUI for model output
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Groundwater
• No groundwater lag in phase4.x
• Some ideas on the table for phase5, but . . .
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Simulation Time
• P4 – 1984-1997 (used 1985-1994)
• P5 – 1984 – 2000 (calibration)• 2001 – 2001 (verification)
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Rainfall
• Better information on a 5 km grid
• Use regression of weather pattern, latitude, longitude, and altitude.
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Atmospheric Deposition
• Update of data and regression methods for observed data
• Update of model predicting change due to management actions
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Better and extended data sets
• Point Source
• Water Diversions
• Septic
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Better and extended data sets
• Fertilizer
• Manure
• Land Use =>
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
RESAC 2000 Land Cover• Delivered for Patuxent• Available by county-
segment• integrated with
impervious mapClass_namebare soil/rock/clay/sand/gravelcropsdecid trees and shrubsevergreen trees and shrubsgrassherb/sedge wetlandindustr/commerc/transp/highresmixed composition trees and grassresidentialwaterwooded wetland
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
RESAC 2000 Impervious Map
• Data on 30 m pixels• Able to combine with
LU Map
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
More land use types• Phase4
Forest Urban Hitil Lotil Hay Pasture Manure
• Phase5 Low intensity developed Moderate intensity developed High intensity develop corn wheat hay soy vegetables nursery tobacco cotton Pasture Grass fallow Deciduous forest Evergreen forest Mixed forest Deciduous wetlands Evergreen wetlands Emergent wetlands Bare rock/ mines/quarries Other barren (sand and soil) Water Major roads/interstates
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
New River Data
• Needed geomorphology of ~800 rivers Had data for ~200 Developed regression curves for each
region for• Bankfull depth• Bankfull width• Bottom depth
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
New Reservoir Data
• Phase4 Six simulated reservoirs
• Phase5 Forty simulated reservoirs
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
More Observations
• Phase4 16 stations for flow and water quality
• Phase5 70 water quality stations 280 flow stations
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling
Calibration
• Better input data• More realistic simulation• More observations• Better calibration software• More calibrators• 5 more years of understanding