Pet Outlook 2014 - VIMAL KEDIA - Elite...

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PET Overview Vimal Kedia Manjushree Technopack Limited Bangalore INDIA August 05, 2014 at the The Leela, Mumbai

Transcript of Pet Outlook 2014 - VIMAL KEDIA - Elite...

PET Overview 

Vimal KediaManjushree Technopack Limited 

Bangalore INDIA

August 05, 2014 at the The Leela, Mumbai

South Asia’s largest PET packaging co. converting 80,000 MTPAof resin into PET Preforms and Bottles

No. of production plants :  3 in BangaloreTotal built‐up area :   75,000 sq. mtr.No. of employees :   300 peopleContainers produced per annum :   350 millionPreforms produced per annum :   2.2 billion preformsPET Resin Conversion capacity :   225MT/day; 80,000 MTPA 

Manjushree accounts for the conversion of almost 12 % of India’s PET Preforms and 

Bottles

PET TRIVIA # 1Roohafza moves from Glass Bottle to PET

bottle after 108 years !

PET Journey over 5 decades

2016*80 MMT

201262 MMT

200851 MMT6%

25%

27% PET

41%

6%

25%

29% PET

41%

5%

24%

31% PET

40%

Filament PET PSF Film

PET is the fastest growing polymer in the world.

Global StatisticsBottle Grade (PET) – Share in Polyesters

Global StatisticsDemand‐Supply : 2012‐2016

MMTA

Europe

North America

CapacityDemandSurplus

2012 2013 20164.4 4.6 5.53.9 4.0 4.6.5 0.6 0.9

CapacityDemandDeficit

2012 2013 20163.6 3.9 4.94.0 4.1 5.0(.4) (0.2) (.1)

Asia

CapacityDemandSurplus

2012 2013 201611.8 13.5 14.06.3 6.9 9.75.5 6.6 4.3Middle East & Africa

CapacityDemandSurplus

2012 2013 20162.0 3.2 3.42.0 2.2 2.7

1.1 .7South America

CapacityDemandDeficit

2012 2013 2016.9 .9 1.2

1.4 1.6 1.9(.5) (.7) (.7)

World

CapacityDemandSurplusOp Rate

2012 2013 2016*

22.8 24.6 31.017.8 18.6 23.9

5 6 7.178% 75% 77%

Over the last 10 years, annual PET resin demand has grown from 9.4

MMT in 2003 to 18.6 MMT in 2013 & the world demand growth expected

@ 6 % CAGR in next 3 years

Indian per capita PET consumption

PET in IndiaA Quick Flashback !

KTA

Mid 80'sCentury Enka & Akzo Nobel      

Pearlpet comes into market

End 80's Ester Industries

Early 90's Futura Polymers

Mid 1990 Elque Polyester                          SENPET

1997 Reliance Industries

2003 Dhunseri Petrochem & Tea

2008 JBF Industries

PET Demand In India

280340

425500

575

660

760

875

1006

2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 2014‐15 2015‐16 2016 ‐17

DEMAND (KTA)

Consumption Pattern

In KTA

Non Alcoholic Beverages

Alcoholic Beverages

Non Beverages

Total Demand

07-08

76

32

102

210

09-10

140

50

150

340

12-13

295

80

200

575

13-14

350

90

220

660

15-16

450

125

300

875

Non Alcoholic Beverage : CSD, Water, Fruit drinks, Milk.: Water the growth driver

Alcoholic Beverage : Low priced, mass consumption liquor: PET replacing glass

Non Beverage : Health and Personal Care, Agro based, Cooking Oil, Confectionaries

• Beverages and bottled water continues to grow @ 15% & 20% respectively • Both Coke & Pepsi have announced large investments (US$ 5 billion) by 2020. • Coke in India has witnessed the highest growth in last few years and has climbed to 6th largest

growth centres globally in 2014 from 19th place in 2006, in Coke markets worldwide.

Indian PET Resin supply scenario

Total consumption estimates for 2013 – 2014         :   600,000 MT

Excess of supply over demand                                     :   960,000 MT

Manufacturer PresentCapacity(KTA)

Expansion /Newcapacity(KTA) Total (KTA)

Dhunseri

Reliance

JBF

Micro PET

Total (KTA)

200 + 210

700

150  + 70

1330

350 (2014)

Completed in Q1

210 (2014)

550

410

1040

220

210

1,880

Key Drivers for PET growth in India

• India : 126 Cr. as on Mar 2014 and growing annually at about 1.58%. 

• China : 139Cr. As on Mar 2014 and growing annually at about 2.3%.

• The growing Population is expected to drive the demand for PET in a sustainable way.

Key Drivers for PET growth in India

Urbanization 

• Last Decade (2001 – 2011), the urban population grew by 2.8% annually, adding 9.1 Cr. people to Indian cities

• Urban population is expected to grow upto 59 Crores by 2030 accounting for nearly 40% of India’s population as compared to the current 31%.

• By 2030, India is expected to have 68 cities and 6 mega cities.

Urbanization 

• Last Decade (2001 – 2011), the urban population grew by 2.8% annually, adding 9.1 Cr. people to Indian cities

• Urban population is expected to grow upto 59 Crores by 2030 accounting for nearly 40% of India’s population as compared to the current 31%.

• By 2030, India is expected to have 68 cities and 6 mega cities.

Key Drivers for PET growth in India

HIGH DISPOSABLE INCOME 

• Per capita income 

Rise of 10.4%

FY Per month Per Annum

2012 – 13 Rs. 5,279 Rs. 68,747

2013 – 14 Rs. 6,423 Rs. 74,920

Key Drivers for PET growth in IndiaAGE DEPENDENCY RATIO(Youth % of working‐age population)

• India’s growing youth population with high disposable income is a sign of growth for the PET resin industry

• In about 7 years, the median individual in India will be 29 years of age. 

• Around 450 million people in India are in between ages 15 – 34, which is a high proportion of working age individuals in comparison with dependents. 

• Estimated by 2020, India is set to become the world’s youngest country with 64% of its population in the working age group. 

• The total turnover of the packaging industry in India is USD 24.6 Billion and is expected togrow at a CAGR of 12.3% from 2013 to 2016.

• Higher than the global avg. by a factor of 2x on account of increased incomes, brandvalue, consumption and performance based around decisions of affordability,convenience and hygiene.

• India present account for 2‐3% of the global packaging market, even as the countryaccounts for about 15‐16% of global population.

• This divergence is expected to correct with speed due to strong growth in end‐userindustries and preference for PET as a packaging material, which helped increase off‐takeand grew 30% CAGR during FY 2007‐2012 within INDIA.

Growing Packaging Sector

PET TRIVIA # 2Amul’s 200ml SKU moves

from the 200g Glass bottle to a ultralight 15gm PET Bottle!

Capacity of 1.2 million bottles/day !

Water, 21%

CSD, 17%

Flavoured Beverages, 6%Alcoholic 

Beverages, 14%

Jar/Confectionary/Retail, 12%

Health Care, 10%

Personal Care, 8%

Cooking Oil, 5%

Agro Chemicals, 2%Others, 6%

India ‐ Current Scenario

India ‐ Current Scenario

PET:  Fastest  growing Rigid Packaging Material

Indian Market growing @ 15% CAGR

Organized retail  expected to Take off

East,7%

South,23%

West,33%

North,37%

Beverages, Personal Care, Healthcare,....

PET - Expanding in new Application areas

Regional Market Spread

Per capita consumption of Beverages in India is only 6 ltrs against the global figure of 30 ltrs.

Similarly for Water , it is 5 ltrs in India against 24 ltrs globally

Import Duty on PET: 5.5 %

Anti-Dumping Duty on PTA in INDIA

2012-13 the total import in India is approx. – 45 KMT

The first ever Bio-MEG plant is located in Central India.

India ‐ Current Scenario contd…

Customers

Very Large

(KTA)

>10

5-10

Percentage

30

15Large

Medium 2-5

<2

25

30Small

India – Emerging Trends 

Fresh & Flavoured 

milk

AlcoholicBeverages

Juices &Drinks

Wine & Beer Lube oil

Recycled PET

Indian Polyester Market~3.6MMT

PET bottle consumption~0.7MMT

Collection rate~70% in spite of poor bin culture

Recycling Industry growing at 25%

2012PET ChipsConsumption

Collection Rate

PET bottle Collection

Global

KT/Yr

%

kt/yr

18000

46

8280

China

3300

90

2970

India

660

70

462

India has the second highest collection rate.

India – Emerging Trends 

Vimal Kedia Managing Director

Manjushree Technopack [email protected]

www.manjushreeindia.com