PepsiCo Team Jab We Marketed Proposal(2)

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    Index Proposal 2010

    Submitted by

    Jab We Marketed

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    IINNTTRROODDUUCCTTIIOONN

    This proposal aims at bringing out the approach, methodology and tools to be used by the

    team to conduct the research and generate concrete results which can be interpreted to

    determine effectiveness of various consumer sales promotions as well as identify newer

    methods of sales promotion. Our proposal is based on a series of primary & secondary

    research which has helped us develop a better understanding of the consumer behavior.

    MMaannaaggeemmeenntt OObbjjeeccttiivvee

    To improve the effectiveness of consumer sales promotion schemes in increasing salesof Pepsi

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    To understand the effectiveness of various consumer sales promotions on

    different segments of consumers

    To identify the best methods of sales promotion to target the different segments

    based on their behavior, attitudes and preferences

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    What are the different segments of consumers in terms of their perceptions,attitudes and behavior towards sales promotion schemes?

    What are the consumers perceptions regarding various schemes in this category

    and what are the consumer responses towards them?

    What are the consumer perceptions towards the brand (in terms of quality,

    image) offering sales promotion schemes?

    What are the consumer preferences towards different schemes?

    What are the consumer attitudes towards such sales promotions (in terms of

    rejection, liking, preference, insistence)?

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    What are the behavioral aspects of the consumer in terms of the following patterns:

    Consumers who do without the sales promotion scheme

    Consumers who postpone the purchase

    Consumers who substitute the brand with other brands

    Consumers who use the brand on a trial basis

    Consumers who are 1st time buyersConsumers who Regularly repeat the purchase because of the sales promotion

    What are the barriers in picking up a promotion offered by a company?

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    Develop a model that performs comprehensive consumer segmentation in the CSD

    market

    Evaluate the appropriateness of existing promotional schemes for each consumer

    segment

    Propose methods to enhance the current sales promotions for all consumer segments

    Recommend new promotion schemes/campaigns as per the consumer segments to propelsales

    Develop projections on impact of the proposed improvements/campaigns on sales and

    brand

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    The Indian Soft Drinks Market

    The Indian soft drinks market has

    leading players like The Coca-Cola

    Company, PepsiCo and Parle Agrowhich collectively account for around

    88% of the market volume. The

    constituents of the soft drinks market

    are bottled water, carbonates,

    concentrates, functional drinks, juices

    and ready-to-drink tea and coffee.

    In India, colas, by industry estimates,comprise only 38% of the Rs.7500-

    crore domestic market for sparkling

    drinks, while flavours (clear lime,

    cloudy lime, orange and apple)

    command a market share of 54%. This

    is in contrast with the situation three

    years ago when colas had a 46% share

    of the market. According to industry

    experts, the reason for this has been the

    switching of consumers from colas to

    healthier beverages.

    The Indian soft drinks market grew by

    7.7% in 2008 to reach a value of $3.4

    billion. This represented a compounded

    annual growth rate of 6.7% in the

    period from 2004 to 2008. By2013, the

    market is expected to grow to $4.6

    billion of revenues, indicating a CAGR

    of 6.5% for the period.

    Sales Value of the Indian Soft Drinks

    Market

    Year $billion

    INRbillion

    %Growth

    2004 2.6 113.6

    2005 2.7 120.1 5.7%

    2006 2.9 127.5 6.2%

    2007 3.1 136.7 7.2%

    2008 3.4 147.2 7.7%

    Growth in the Indian Soft Drinks Market

    Pie Graph showing breakup of sales amongst

    the Players in the industry

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

    2.6 2.72.9 3.1

    3.4

    Sales ($ billion)

    41%

    27%

    20%

    12%

    Sales

    Coca Cola

    Pepsico

    Parle Argo

    Others

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    The carbonated soft drinks (CSD)

    market is the leading revenue source for

    the broader soft drinks industry in India,

    generating 57.3% of the total value. The

    major brands in the carbonated soft

    drinks industry and their market shares

    are shown in the table below.

    Table for the market share enjoyed by

    individual brands

    Brand Market Share

    Thums Up 15.8%

    Sprite 14.2%

    Pepsi 13.7%

    Coca Cola 8%

    Coca-Cola and PepsiCo, the two giants in the

    industry, together control about 90 per cent of

    the carbonated beverage market in India. The

    greater energy focus in both is on expanding

    their CSD portfolio by way of flavours and

    variants. PepsiCo, for instance, has witnessed a

    big shift from a portfolio dominated by

    carbonated beverages to a more balanced one

    (as of 2009, the ratio of CSD to non-carbonated

    was 2:1 as compared to 9:1 a few years back).

    Coca-Cola is identifying new flavours. Its core

    cola brands continue to contribute more to

    revenues; Thums Up is the top-selling soft

    drink in India. But the scales are now shifting

    in favour of flavoured beverages. (Dogra,

    2009)

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    LLii tteerraattuurree RReevviieeww

    We conducted a thorough review of

    published research papers relevant to

    the management objective to get a

    better understanding of the consumer

    behaviour in the beverage industry. We

    have also looked for information

    related to the effect of promotions on

    consumer behaviour. The findings of

    our research are given below.

    A few studies have been conducted on

    consumer behaviour in the carbonated

    soft drinks market. One such study

    (Vijayakumar, 2005), which was

    conducted in certain urban centres in

    Tamil Nadu found that in the case of

    consumption of chilled or warm soft

    drinks, consumers who were less than26 years of age and who had completed

    their education up to the college level

    preferred chilled carbonated soft

    drinks. Younger consumers (less than

    26 years old) were found to consume

    more soft drinks than all other age

    groups. Also, in terms of gender, males

    consumed more soft drinks than

    females.

    It was also found in this study that

    during special offer periods, consumers

    belonging to different age groups,

    marital status, occupation and income showed

    significant differences in the interestdeveloped in the offers. However, the study

    stops short of discussing the details regarding

    the behaviour of various segments related to

    promotional activities.

    Several studies have been conducted on

    consumer response towards promotions,

    although none could be found specific to thesoft drinks industry. It has been found that

    temporary retail price reductions substantially

    increase sales in the short term (Woodside &

    Waddle, 1975). Also, higher market share

    brands have lower deal elasticity though

    higher share brands may capture a large

    proportion of switchers (Bolton, 1989).

    Promoting higher quality brands impacts

    weaker brands disproportionately, causing a

    large proportion of consumers of the weaker

    brand to switch (Blattberg & Wisniewski,

    1989). Promotion was found to result in a

    significant temporal and cross-sectional

    shifting of category demand.

    Studies indicate the apparently obvious fact

    that display and feature advertising have

    strong positive effects on item sales. It has also

    been found that promotions lead consumers to

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    stockpile (i.e., buy extra quantity of the

    product and store for future use) and upgrade

    to higher quality products (Blattberg, Briesch,

    & Fox, 1995).

    Studies Reveal

    Males consume more soft drinks than

    females

    People less that 26 years of age consume

    more soft drinks than all other age groups

    Display and feature advertising have

    strong positive effects on item sales

    Promotions lead consumers to stockpile

    and upgrade to higher quality products

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    MMaarrkkeett

    Due to the intense competition in the Indian soft drinks industry, there have been a

    host of promotions, especially by the industry giants Pepsico and Coca Cola

    Company. Given below is a list of popular promotions which were introduced in the

    market in the past few years.

    The Pepsi ChallengeThis involved taste tests designed in response to the

    view that Pepsi and Coca Cola are identical drinks

    In blind taste tests, more consumers were seen to have preferred Pepsi to

    Coke

    Campaigns featuring Bollywood celebrities

    Akshay Kumar, Aamir Khan, Shahrukh, Priyanka Chopra and several

    others

    Promotional codes on the back of labels in bottles

    SMS the codes to get rewarded with ringtone, MMS or other prizes

    Promotional codes under the crown

    Limca Laptop ki Barish - Computer generated lucky draw to give away

    a laptop every hourCampaigns focusing on the health aspect with Diet variants of the drinks

    Cokes Open Happiness campaign

    Buy one get one free/free samples during the initial launch of the product and

    some of the seasons

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    Pepsis Youngistaan campaign to attract the youth

    Campaigns centred around cricket and cricketers

    During IPL, Coke had a contest wherein a person buying 2 pet bottles of 2 liters

    gets a chance to meet the KingsXI Punjab team

    The popular Main Kaun Hoon, Main Kahaan Hoon with the Sachin/Warne duo,

    launched during an India-Australia Cricket Series

    Men in Blue campaign by Pepsi during the Cricket World Cup

    Sprite had a special Sprite Kolkata Knight Riders edition with insignia of key players

    Coca Cola and McDonalds had a We go together campaign

    Cola companies providing refrigerators (visicoolers) to retailers boards displaying shop

    names

    Thumbs Up Chowfulla - This promotional scheme entails one to buy a 600 ml bottle of

    any of the Coca-Cola products and get a free ticket to the Thumbs Up Chowfulla. The

    event is based on folk dance in Maharashtra. This is targeted at rural folks.

    All these campaigns have seen varying levels of success in attracting consumers from the

    competitor. The actual list of promotions would be much larger, but this list includes the

    most popular ones which the consumers could recall

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    To get a feel of the perceptions of the target group, we conducted an exploratory research on

    carbonated soft drinks promotions. The research was conducted in the form of in-depth

    interviews and focused group discussions (FGDs). The FGDs were centred on consumer

    promotions in general. The interviews were qualitative involving questions like What is your

    favourite soft drink?, What are the recent promotion schemes that you recall? etc. The

    insights from these interactions have been summarized below.

    SEC A is not affected by promotion schemes; SEC B is the most sensitized to promotions

    and SEC C is not aware about the various schemes.

    Brand loyalty is not very important in the purchase decision in case of large purchases

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    What are the underlying personality and lifestyle traits that define a consumers attitude,

    perceptions and behaviour towards consumer promotions?

    1.2.Data Analysis Tools and Techniques:Factor analysis : to identify the underlying variables which can be use to segment the

    consumers

    Cluster analysis: to identify the segments of consumers based on the variables identified

    Discriminant analysis: to understand the demographic and psychographic characteristics

    that help to differentiate between consumers based on their response to consumer

    promotions

    1.3. Expected Output:List of underlying variables which can be used to segment the Target Group

    Clusters of consumers exhibiting similar behaviour based on demographic and

    psychographic variables

    Segregation of the target group (based on psychographic and demographic factors) with

    respect to their response (attitude and behaviour) towards different types of promotion

    schemes.

    2. Research Objective 1:To assess current consumer sales promotion schemes undertaken by Pepsi and other cola

    players in the market.

    2.1.Research Questions:Which brands promotion schemes that the consumers recall from the past?

    What effect did the promotion schemes have on the consumption pattern of the

    consumers for that particular brand?

    What effect did the promotion schemes have on the attitude of the consumers towards

    the brand?

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    How effective have the promotion schemes been at inducing brand switching?

    How do Pepsis promotion schemes fare against those of the competition?

    Have the promotion schemes been able to attract first-time buyers?

    Do the promotion schemes create brand loyalty and repeat purchases among the

    consumers?

    2.2.Data Analysis Tools and Techniques:Correlation analysis: To determine the impact of promotion on sales

    Multiple regression analysis: to show the relative importance of various factors (type of

    scheme, quantum of reward, immediacy of benefit, brand, and deal-proneness of the

    consumer) on the buying behaviour of consumers

    Multi-dimensional scaling: to plot spatial maps that help to analyze the perception of

    consumers regarding the promotion schemes of Pepsi vis-a-vis its competitors

    2.3.Expected Output:Impact of the customer sales promotions on sales

    Relative strength of various factors like type of scheme, quantum of reward, immediacy

    of benefit, brand, deal-proneness of the consumer, etc.) in impacting sales of the product

    Perceptual maps that help to understand how the consumers perceive the promotion

    schemes of Pepsi

    3. Research Objective 2:To study consumer perceptions regarding various schemes in this category and

    preference towards them

    3.1.Research Questions:What is the purpose of these promotion schemes as perceived by the consumer?

    What are the promotion schemes that the consumers participate in?What is the reaction when a peer participates in these promotions?

    What are the motivations that govern a customers participation in a promotion scheme

    (size of reward, ease of participation, chances of winning etc)

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    What is the perception of consumers about the kind of people participating in a particular

    promotional scheme?(Eg: Collecting crowns is for kids)

    Is there a difference between the stated attitude towards promotion schemes and the

    behaviour towards them?

    What are the kinds of schemes liked and disliked by the consumers?

    3.2.Data Analysis Tools and Techniques:Factor Analysis: To arrive at the factor loadings for the various factors (size of reward,

    ease of participation, chances of winning) that influence a customers participation in a

    promotion scheme.

    Discriminant Analysis: A Discriminant Analysis performed on the results of the Factor

    Analysis would give us some groups of consumers: consumers inclined to buy,

    indifferent consumers and consumers who are put off by promotions

    Fishbein Model: To analyze whether the likelihood of benefits from the scheme or the

    importance of that benefit plays a more vital role in participating in a scheme

    T-test (with significance test): To understand the most preferred schemes of consumers

    3.3.Expected Output:List of factors that influence a customers participation in a promotion scheme

    Difference in perception towards promotion schemes between different segments in theTG based on their demographic and psychographic characteristics

    Insight on relative importance of benefits that consumers see in sales promotions

    4. Research Objective 4:Study the attitudes of consumers towards such sales promotions in terms of rejection,

    liking, preference, insistence

    4.1.Research Questions:Does the kind of promotion scheme offered on a carbonated drink affect the choice of

    drink by the consumer?

    Does the presence of sales promotion induce a consumer to buy a bigger SKU?

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    What aspects of a promotion scheme might de-motivate a consumer from participating?

    What aspects of a promotion scheme might motivate a consumer to participate?

    Does the presence of a promotion scheme induce purchase of a product not normally

    bought by the consumer?

    Do consumers stick to their preferred brand in case other brands offer promotion

    schemes?

    4.2.Data Analysis Tools and Techniques:Factor Analysis: To understand which factors cause rejection, liking, preference and

    insistence

    Discriminant Analysis: To understand if there is any difference in rejection, liking,

    preference and insistence based on demographic and psychographic characteristics

    Multi Dimensional Scaling: to plot spatial maps that help to analyze the perception of

    consumers regarding different types of promotion schemes

    4.3.Expected Output:List of factors causing rejection, liking, preference and insistence

    List of demographic and psychographic characteristics that cause a difference in

    rejection, liking, preference and insistence

    Perceptual maps that help to understand how the consumers perceive the promotionschemes of Pepsi

    5. Research Objective 5:To study the behavioural aspects of the consumer

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    5.1.Research Questions:What are the personality traits of a consumer who will purchase his favourite brand

    regardless of consumer promotions?

    What are the personality traits of a consumer who will postpone purchase to takeadvantage of a consumer promotion?

    What are the personality traits of a consumer who will purchase another brand offering a

    consumer promotion in place of his favourite brand?

    What are the personality traits of a consumer who will purchase a brand on a trial basis

    during the promotion period?

    What are the personality traits of a consumer who will try out a category or brand of soft

    drinks for the first time based on consumer promotions?

    What are the personality traits of a consumer who will purchase a particular brand more

    frequently during the period of sales promotions?

    5.2.Data Analysis Tools and Techniques:Factor Analysis: To understand which personality traits cause different behaviours with

    respect to loyalty, postponement, substitution, etc.

    Discriminant Analysis: To understand if there is any difference in loyalty, postponement,

    substitution, etc based on psychographic characteristics

    5.3.Expected Output:List of personality traits that cause different behaviours with respect to loyalty,

    postponement, substitution, etc

    List of psychographic characteristics that cause a difference in loyalty, postponement,

    substitution, etc

    6. Research Objective 6:What are the barriers in picking up a promotion offered by a company?

    6.1.Research QuestionsWhat are the barriers that prevent consumers from participating in a promotion offered by the

    company?

    Are the barriers different for different segments of consumers?

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    6.2.Data Analysis Tools and TechniquesFactor Analysis: To understand the underlying barriers that prevents a consumer from

    participating in a promotion

    6.3.Expected OutputList of factors preventing a consumer from participating in a promotion

    7. Research Objective 7:Consumers perception towards the brand (in terms of quality, image) offering sales

    promotion schemes

    7.1.Research Questions:Do promotions significantly affect the attitude towards the brand?

    Is there any link between quality levels and promotions?

    Do promotions improve the brand image in the consumers mind?

    Is the consumers perception towards the brand influenced by demographic or

    psychographic characteristics?

    7.2.Data Analysis Tools and Techniques:T-test (with significance test): To determine whether promotions make a significant

    impact on the perception of quality and brand image

    Discriminant Analysis: To determine positive/negative link between quality, brand image

    and demographic/psychographic characteristics

    7.3.Expected Output:Presence or absence of significant difference in perception of quality and brand image

    based on promotions run by the company

    Relationship between quality, brand image and demographic/psychographic

    characteristics

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    HHyyppootthheesseess GGeenneerraatteedd

    There are two possible outcomes: if the result confirms the hypothesis, then you've made a

    measurement. If the result is contrary to the hypothesis, then you've made a discovery.~Enrico

    Fermi

    H1:There is no significant effect of promotion schemes on the long-term behaviour of Sec A

    consumers

    H2:There is a significant effect of promotion schemes on the behaviour of Sec B consumers

    H3: The level of awareness about promotion schemes is very low among Sec C consumers

    H3:The perceived low probability of winning is a de-motivator for participation in promotion

    schemes

    H4:Consumers prefer smaller but assured gifts to big but rare gifts

    H5: For bulk purchases, consumers are more sensitive to sales promotions than to the favourite

    brand of the CSD.

    H6: Sales promotions which offer material gifts (price discounts, scholarships, gifts) are

    preferred over promotion schemes which offer non-material gifts (meeting with movie stars)

    H7:There is no significant difference between the recall rates of different promotion schemes

    H8:Promotion schemes have significant effect in the form of increased soft drink consumption

    H9:Promotion schemes have been effective at inducing brand switching only until the life of the

    promotion

    H10: Consumers perceive promotion schemes as an attempt to push a sub-standard product

    H11:A lotterylike promotion scheme gives the same thrill as a real lottery

    H12:Promotions do not affect the perception about quality of the product

    H13:Promotions affect the perception about the brand image of the product

    H14: Lack of awareness of promotions is the most important barrier in preventing consumers

    from participating in promotions

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    AAppppeennddiixx

    Work Flow Chart

    PreliminaryResearch

    Literature survey

    Industry analysis

    Market analysis

    FGDs and In-DepthInterviews

    To analyse:

    Promotion recall

    Influencers

    Preparation ofResearch InstrumentsQuestionnaires based on: Preliminary Research

    FGD In-depth Interviews

    Pilot TestingTo identify flows in:

    Questionnaire

    Test instructions

    Time limits

    Game Design

    To properly disguisethe questionnaire in thegame

    Beta Testing

    To verify the veracityof the game design

    Index Fair (DataCollection) Inviting target segment

    Dedicated escort to ensurerespondent care andproper process flow

    Time limits

    Preliminary DataAnalysis

    To analyse the collected

    data using specificstatistical tools

    Conclusions

    & Recommendations

    Based on research

    objectives and dataanalysis

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    Timelines

    It is assumed that the final project presentation will be on January 16, 2011.

    Indicative sampling frame

    We plan the sample frame to be as follows. The outcome at the index fair maybe different. This

    frame is only indicative.

    Sec A Sec B Sec C Total

    In Depth

    Interview

    1 3 2 8

    Pre-Test 8 7 5 24

    Index 72 110 13 188

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    Sample Output

    Discriminant Analysis

    The discriminant analysis is used to differentiate which set of customers respond to a particular

    promotion method. With this we can target a particular promotion on to a particular segment.

    Factor Analysis

    Gives the explanation of variance in the decision of whether the customer will respond to a

    particular promotion or not.

    Variance Factor 1 Factor 2 Factor 3 Factor 4 Factor 5

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    Factor Loading Matrix

    The matrix helps us in arriving at the major factors that play a role in the effect of promotion on

    buying decision. With the help of these factors we arrive at the perceptual map illustrated below.

    Segmentation Variables Factor 1 Factor 2 Factor 3 Factor 4

    SEC Classification

    Psychographic Variables

    Demographic Variables

    Behavioural Variables

    Family Income

    Family Size

    Perceptual Map

    The perceptual map specifies what customer attributes play a role in deciding which promotion

    will provoke maximum response among a set of customers. In this indicative map the attributes

    shown are age and income. The different promotion types are placed in the perceptual space.

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    RReeffeerreenncceess

    Blattberg, R., & Wisniewski, K. (1989). Price-Induced Patterns of Competition. MarketingScience , 291-309.

    Blattberg, R., Briesch, R., & Fox, E. (1995). How Promotions Work. Marketing Science

    , 122-132.

    Bolton, R. (1989). The Relationship Between Market Characteristics and Promotional

    Price Elasticities. Marketing Science , 153-169.

    Dogra, S. (2009, March 3). Carbonated drinks losing fizz to flavours. Business Standard

    , pp. -.

    Vijayakumar, S. (2005). Consumer Behaviour Relating to Carbonated Soft Drinks in

    Selected Urban Centres in Tamil Nadu. Finance India , 600-607.

    Woodside, A., & Waddle, G. (1975). Sales Effects of In-Store Advertising. Journal ofAdvertising Research , 29-33.